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What does Salmond want and what will he achieve? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 27 in General
imageWhat does Salmond want and what will he achieve? – politicalbetting.com

Not all politics is personal but it’s very hard to explain Alex Salmond’s return to the front line of Scottish politics in any other terms. He feels very wronged. Wronged by the actions of his former party and his former deputy and successor, whose behaviour towards him may or may not have been inappropriate depending on which report or inquiry you read; and wronged by the Scottish government and legal system. How to right that wrong? Take the system on. It’s what he’s done since he first became SNP leader at the age of 35, more than three decades ago.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,056
    First
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776
    First Minister?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,247
    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,056
    I generally agree with David. On paper it might look clever, but the reality is that it will get very messy.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    When people say “pure coincidence” rather than “coincidence” I get the feeling that “pure” is being used as device to infer “not a”

    Is that a usually the case?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    I’m happy with my 50/1 bet on SNP not being the largest party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,166
    I find it dispiriting that many commentators suggest, not without reason, that even this Salmond split will actually just help Sindy cause. I take the point about SNP and Alba necessarily to attack each other a bit, but it feels like for Unionists they need a goldilocks outome to obtain benefit from this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    The worry is that, like the Greens, he gets a pile of list votes which sets up an independence majority in the Parliament.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    edited March 27
    Is there a chance that the SNP & Alba will become the Vote Leave and Leave.EU of Sindy? At odds with each other, but reaching parts of the vote as a do that one organisation containing both factions would put off
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 6,527
    I think what he wants is quite obvious. The only outcome he wants less than no iScotland is iScotland delivered by Sturgeon. So he wants independence to happen but he wants to be the difference that makes the difference so he still goes down in history as the newly emergent nation's foundational patriarch.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,084
    edited March 27
    Just watching his interview with Faisal Islam - looks like the plan is to apply pressure on the SNP to fast track Indy.

    Also - bring that Indy is probably split 50/50 at the moment, will people really sit on their hands if it looks like a massive pro Indy majority has been gerrymandered?

    I can’t see that ending well.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    FPT:
    Mr. 86, been afk hence slow reply:

    the Brawn says hello when it comes to revolutionary designs.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    Is it not premature to hypothesise the effect of a new party before we get some polling on it?
  • agingjb2agingjb2 Posts: 11
    Sadly, STV, rejected for the Scottish parliament (and characterised on PB as satanic) would not have enabled this attempt at manipulation.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,529
    edited March 27
    "Scots wanting to game the AMS system already have the means through which they can do so. The Scottish Greens are also pro-Independence and also do not contest constituencies, so Salmond’s Alba is adding nothing in that respect."

    Yes, and I've pointed that out here in the past.

    It raises a question of how far the administration and form of elections should be devolved in a federal system, when that devolved authority risks being abused.

    That is already a major question in the US, given the latest voter suppression attempts by Republican states such as Georgia, and it is right for the federal government to attempt to respond with legislation to limit the unfettered exercise of devolved powers to game the system. The principle should apply to Scotland too. Now that Salmond has blown the whistle on what was already happening in Scotland in any case, there's a good case for the UK government to step in with UK wide legislation to limit attempts by nationalists to game the system to achieve secession.

    All that is required is to require representation within any regional lists to be determined by the same party vote used in the constituency ballot, with just a single vote cast. ie. If you vote for an SNP constituency candidate, you are deemed to have voted also for the SNP in the list as well. No more splitting of the votes for a pliant Scottish Green Party or now Alba, in the name of securing extra seats for secession.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited March 27
    Anyone inclined to the revenge explanation for Alba’s launch might note that after a degree of havering, the Greens opposed the confidence motions against both John Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon – though it may be pure coincidence that Alba was publicly launched within a couple of weeks of these key votes.

    I love the dryness of that comment, @david_herdson :smiley:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,056

    FPT:
    Mr. 86, been afk hence slow reply:

    the Brawn says hello when it comes to revolutionary designs.

    12 years ago at the time of a huge rule change. It’s been downhill ever since.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Excellent read. Thanks @david_herdson
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    Mr. 86, aye, but you said since 2005 and Brawn was 2009. And we did have seven different winners in the first seven races of 2012.

    I do agree with you on a general basis.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    On the topic: I doubt many green voters vote Green because they are pro-indie.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,166
    Cookie said:

    Agreeing about so much said about working from home. It's very hard to take much enjoyment from it; self-motivation is very hard. I've struggles massively. Can't wait to go back.

    Indeed.

    Without wishing to be mawkish, while I expend too much time on the place and am resolved to reduce that (time to get some sun), PB has really helped both distract and keep my spirits up. Yes, it's silly, but it's easier to be honest about feeling down with anonymous internet people in between chatter about politics and cricket.

    Pleasant day, and days, to all.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    DougSeal said:

    Is it not premature to hypothesise the effect of a new party before we get some polling on it?

    Is polling that useful as a measure for new parties? ChangeUK polled pretty well early on...

    “A new dawn has broken has it not? No? Ok then. Where’s that CV?”
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,385
    Interesting vaccine production chart. For all the hoorah, the UKs vaccine production has actually been very poor. Oxford Unis vaccine gave us a head start that we seem to have squandered.

    https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282?s=19
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    Sandpit said:

    The worry is that, like the Greens, he gets a pile of list votes which sets up an independence majority in the Parliament.

    But, to action that, he would have to vote for Sturgeon to be FM.

    Now that would be the ultimate ‘karma’s a bitch’ moment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Agreeing about so much said about working from home. It's very hard to take much enjoyment from it; self-motivation is very hard. I've struggles massively. Can't wait to go back.

    Indeed.

    Without wishing to be mawkish, while I expend too much time on the place and am resolved to reduce that (time to get some sun), PB has really helped both distract and keep my spirits up. Yes, it's silly, but it's easier to be honest about feeling down with anonymous internet people in between chatter about politics and cricket.

    Pleasant day, and days, to all.
    What, no mention of my awesome punning? I’m hurt ☹️
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    JonathanD said:

    Interesting vaccine production chart. For all the hoorah, the UKs vaccine production has actually been very poor. Oxford Unis vaccine gave us a head start that we seem to have squandered.

    https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282?s=19

    I don’t think it fair to say “poor”. We are by all measures the smallest of the five listed and producing only one vaccine, and then from a standing start.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.

    Once again, the Farage principle applies. It doesn't matter if he's unpopular with most voters, so long as he's the best thing since sliced bread for a sufficient number.

    If there are enough Malcs out there who think the SNP has grown too comfortable with devolution and want to rattle the cage bars a bit, then Salmond will be back in the game and the sock puppet Greens will be toast.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922

    On the topic: I doubt many green voters vote Green because they are pro-indie.

    The broader issue there is that Alba is looking at the election through one lens. There are a number of reasons to vote Green and indeed any other party.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    JonathanD said:

    Interesting vaccine production chart. For all the hoorah, the UKs vaccine production has actually been very poor. Oxford Unis vaccine gave us a head start that we seem to have squandered.

    https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282?s=19

    Umm...vaccines produced per head shows a slightly different figure:

    China 10%
    USA 50%
    India 10%
    EU 25%
    U.K. 25%

    Figures worked out very roughly.

    And I’d point out it’s not how many you produce, it’s how many you’ve bought and administered that counts. No point in producing 2 billion vaccines for other people while your own refuse jabs.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 329
    I think it extremely likely that Salmond himself will be elected in the North East Region. If he has retained even a tiny percentage of personal support Alba will surely poll the 6% or so of the vote required for election. As neither the SNP nor the Greens had anyone elected on the list in that region in 2016, there is little to be risked in voting SNP and ALBA in that region.
    Also, fisher folk in the North East, by majority, regard themselves as betrayed by the Tories and Brexit as both the SNP and Salmond predicted they would be.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922

    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.

    Once again, the Farage principle applies. It doesn't matter if he's unpopular with most voters, so long as he's the best thing since sliced bread for a sufficient number.

    If there are enough Malcs out there who think the SNP has grown too comfortable with devolution and want to rattle the cage bars a bit, then Salmond will be back in the game and the sock puppet Greens will be toast.
    The E&W Greens are level with and or beating the LD in many polls that include south of the border. They are becoming he second party in Germany. There is enough of a “pure” Green vote in Scotland to make any assumption that Alba will just hoover up their vote without trying premature at best surely?
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    edited March 27
    Deleted - misread!
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,385
    DougSeal said:

    JonathanD said:

    Interesting vaccine production chart. For all the hoorah, the UKs vaccine production has actually been very poor. Oxford Unis vaccine gave us a head start that we seem to have squandered.

    https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282?s=19

    I don’t think it fair to say “poor”. We are by all measures the smallest of the five listed and producing only one vaccine, and then from a standing start.
    Life sciences are meant to be one of our strengths however and we have had nearly a year to be maximising production capabilities.

    Also we need to be learning for the future. There was talk of millions of AZ doses being delivered last autumn which never materialised but it must have been thought that the capacity existed. Is this a problem with UK manufacturing?
  • pingping Posts: 331
    edited March 27
    Sandpit said:

    I’m happy with my 50/1 bet on SNP not being the largest party.

    I’m on the same bet - although I’m now having some betregret.

    To pay out it would require serious SNP/Alba fireworks that undermine the Indy project and shovel votes back to one or more of the unionist parties. In six weeks. It’s all rather unlikely.

    50/1 seems about right tbh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    JonathanD said:

    DougSeal said:

    JonathanD said:

    Interesting vaccine production chart. For all the hoorah, the UKs vaccine production has actually been very poor. Oxford Unis vaccine gave us a head start that we seem to have squandered.

    https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282?s=19

    I don’t think it fair to say “poor”. We are by all measures the smallest of the five listed and producing only one vaccine, and then from a standing start.
    Life sciences are meant to be one of our strengths however and we have had nearly a year to be maximising production capabilities.

    Also we need to be learning for the future. There was talk of millions of AZ doses being delivered last autumn which never materialised but it must have been thought that the capacity existed. Is this a problem with UK manufacturing?
    No, it’s just that every pharmaceutical company gave hopelessly optimistic production figures to try and secure orders to fund development.

    The difference is we and the Americans are not whingeing about it, unlike the EU.

    I’m intrigued though that the USA have produced that many vaccines yet as I understand it are some way behind us in terms of actual jabs in arms. Is that because of the shambles that is their healthcare process (it doesn’t deserve to be called a system)?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,247

    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.

    Once again, the Farage principle applies. It doesn't matter if he's unpopular with most voters, so long as he's the best thing since sliced bread for a sufficient number.

    If there are enough Malcs out there who think the SNP has grown too comfortable with devolution and want to rattle the cage bars a bit, then Salmond will be back in the game and the sock puppet Greens will be toast.
    Unlike Farage he’s a terribly diminished figure. What is now known about his behaviour towards women, and his spiteful vendetta make him repellent to all but a few.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    The worry is that, like the Greens, he gets a pile of list votes which sets up an independence majority in the Parliament.

    But, to action that, he would have to vote for Sturgeon to be FM.

    Now that would be the ultimate ‘karma’s a bitch’ moment.
    As @MalcolmG and others have mentioned here, he wants the independence fight to be front and centre, and could be a nightmare to the SNP if he holds a few seats in the Parliament.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited March 27
    ping said:

    Sandpit said:

    I’m happy with my 50/1 bet on SNP not being the largest party.

    I’m on the same bet - although I’m now having some betregret.

    To pay out it would require serious SNP/Alba fireworks that undermine the Indy project and shovel votes back to one or more of the unionist parties. In six weeks. It’s all rather unlikely.

    50/1 seems about right tbh.
    100,000/1 would seem more like it.

    There are 73 constituencies before we go into this D’Hondt bullshit. Where are they going to not win 45 constituency seats? 55 would be more like it.

    And even the lower figure will certainly make them the largest party.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    edited March 27
    ydoethur said:

    JonathanD said:

    DougSeal said:

    JonathanD said:

    Interesting vaccine production chart. For all the hoorah, the UKs vaccine production has actually been very poor. Oxford Unis vaccine gave us a head start that we seem to have squandered.

    https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282?s=19

    I don’t think it fair to say “poor”. We are by all measures the smallest of the five listed and producing only one vaccine, and then from a standing start.
    Life sciences are meant to be one of our strengths however and we have had nearly a year to be maximising production capabilities.

    Also we need to be learning for the future. There was talk of millions of AZ doses being delivered last autumn which never materialised but it must have been thought that the capacity existed. Is this a problem with UK manufacturing?
    No, it’s just that every pharmaceutical company gave hopelessly optimistic production figures to try and secure orders to fund development.

    The difference is we and the Americans are not whingeing about it, unlike the EU.

    I’m intrigued though that the USA have produced that many vaccines yet as I understand it are some way behind us in terms of actual jabs in arms. Is that because of the shambles that is their healthcare process (it doesn’t deserve to be called a system)?
    They are not that far behind - about 40 with first doses per 100 compared to our 46 - and well ahead of the EU.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,385
    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    Interesting vaccine production chart. For all the hoorah, the UKs vaccine production has actually been very poor. Oxford Unis vaccine gave us a head start that we seem to have squandered.

    https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282?s=19

    No, it's because this country was a vaccine nobody before the VTF. We only made a few million doses of Japanese encephalitis vaccine per year domestically. Spinning up to the planned 600m capacity this year and 1bn capacity next year takes a lot of time and planning. If it wasn't for the VTF we'd have relying 100% on imports.
    When AZ was talking about delivery of millions of doses being delivered last autumn, was that UK production or imported?

    Because if it was UK production then it must have been thought that we had the capacity back then and so any failure in delivery must have been due to a problem in manufacturing.

    Also, even now we are still not managing to produce to our capacity (despite previous talk about having ironed out the difficulties).

    The Marburg plant in Germany is about to come online for the Biontech jag and that appears to have been a much later addition than ours.

    Important to learn what has gone right and wrong as when the unexpected happens we will have to develop capacity from scratch rather than relying on what's sitting around already.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,247
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    JonathanD said:

    DougSeal said:

    JonathanD said:

    Interesting vaccine production chart. For all the hoorah, the UKs vaccine production has actually been very poor. Oxford Unis vaccine gave us a head start that we seem to have squandered.

    https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282?s=19

    I don’t think it fair to say “poor”. We are by all measures the smallest of the five listed and producing only one vaccine, and then from a standing start.
    Life sciences are meant to be one of our strengths however and we have had nearly a year to be maximising production capabilities.

    Also we need to be learning for the future. There was talk of millions of AZ doses being delivered last autumn which never materialised but it must have been thought that the capacity existed. Is this a problem with UK manufacturing?
    No, it’s just that every pharmaceutical company gave hopelessly optimistic production figures to try and secure orders to fund development.

    The difference is we and the Americans are not whingeing about it, unlike the EU.

    I’m intrigued though that the USA have produced that many vaccines yet as I understand it are some way behind us in terms of actual jabs in arms. Is that because of the shambles that is their healthcare process (it doesn’t deserve to be called a system)?
    They are not that far behind - about 40 with first doses per 100 compared to our 46 - and well ahead of the EU.
    Another critical aspect of UK success has been its effective campaign against the anti-vaccers. I think in that respect the adverts featuring respected celebrity BAME figures have been really important, as has the fact that the second chance to have the vaccine has been highlighted.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    One thing I’ve noticed since recent events have made me take a little more notice of medical Twitter than I otherwise would - the immunologists are far more chipper about Covid right now than the epidemiologists and public health people.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    DougSeal said:

    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.

    Once again, the Farage principle applies. It doesn't matter if he's unpopular with most voters, so long as he's the best thing since sliced bread for a sufficient number.

    If there are enough Malcs out there who think the SNP has grown too comfortable with devolution and want to rattle the cage bars a bit, then Salmond will be back in the game and the sock puppet Greens will be toast.
    The E&W Greens are level with and or beating the LD in many polls that include south of the border. They are becoming he second party in Germany. There is enough of a “pure” Green vote in Scotland to make any assumption that Alba will just hoover up their vote without trying premature at best surely?
    Possibly, although polls and elections are, of course, clean different things. The Greens are doing well, by their own modest standards, in UK opinion polling; in the last General Election they got less than 3%, consisting of one win, several decent performances, and nugatory levels of support in the bulk of the country (zero in approximately one quarter of seats, where they declined to stand at all.)

    We can disregard the German situation, where there is a decent chance of a Green becoming Chancellor in September. The German Greens are a very different animal.

    Fundamentally, one would've thought that representation is eminently achievable for Salmond's outfit. Alba doesn't need to plunder the Green vote wholesale. If it steals only a third of the Green list vote then the Greens are out; add a small fraction of disgruntled Nat fundamentalists (and the SNP bagged over 40% of the list vote last time, which was almost entirely "wasted" except in the South) and Alba is in.

    Given that we can assume that the SNP will at worst get reasonably close to an outright majority from the constituency vote, it's going to take a very precise combination of Green and Alba support for the two to cancel each other out and enable a theoretical Unionist majority. Possible, but unlikely.

    I'm sticking with the Farage Theory, at least unless or until there's substantial polling evidence much closer to the election to suggest that Alba is a damp squib and/or that the Green vote may be holding firm. My instinct is that Salmond will probably be able to gather enough support to get in.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    JonathanD said:

    DougSeal said:

    JonathanD said:

    Interesting vaccine production chart. For all the hoorah, the UKs vaccine production has actually been very poor. Oxford Unis vaccine gave us a head start that we seem to have squandered.

    https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282?s=19

    I don’t think it fair to say “poor”. We are by all measures the smallest of the five listed and producing only one vaccine, and then from a standing start.
    Life sciences are meant to be one of our strengths however and we have had nearly a year to be maximising production capabilities.

    Also we need to be learning for the future. There was talk of millions of AZ doses being delivered last autumn which never materialised but it must have been thought that the capacity existed. Is this a problem with UK manufacturing?
    No, it’s just that every pharmaceutical company gave hopelessly optimistic production figures to try and secure orders to fund development.

    The difference is we and the Americans are not whingeing about it, unlike the EU.

    I’m intrigued though that the USA have produced that many vaccines yet as I understand it are some way behind us in terms of actual jabs in arms. Is that because of the shambles that is their healthcare process (it doesn’t deserve to be called a system)?
    They are not that far behind - about 40 with first doses per 100 compared to our 46 - and well ahead of the EU.
    Another critical aspect of UK success has been its effective campaign against the anti-vaccers. I think in that respect the adverts featuring respected celebrity BAME figures have been really important, as has the fact that the second chance to have the vaccine has been highlighted.
    Thankfully, anti-Vax has not been a vice the British public has ever bought into to a great degree. I think an implicit, almost religious, trust in the NHS and the regularity of our flu shots has rendered us (excuse the pun) immune.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100

    DougSeal said:

    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.

    Once again, the Farage principle applies. It doesn't matter if he's unpopular with most voters, so long as he's the best thing since sliced bread for a sufficient number.

    If there are enough Malcs out there who think the SNP has grown too comfortable with devolution and want to rattle the cage bars a bit, then Salmond will be back in the game and the sock puppet Greens will be toast.
    The E&W Greens are level with and or beating the LD in many polls that include south of the border. They are becoming he second party in Germany. There is enough of a “pure” Green vote in Scotland to make any assumption that Alba will just hoover up their vote without trying premature at best surely?
    Possibly, although polls and elections are, of course, clean different things. The Greens are doing well, by their own modest standards, in UK opinion polling; in the last General Election they got less than 3%, consisting of one win, several decent performances, and nugatory levels of support in the bulk of the country (zero in approximately one quarter of seats, where they declined to stand at all.)

    We can disregard the German situation, where there is a decent chance of a Green becoming Chancellor in September. The German Greens are a very different animal.

    Fundamentally, one would've thought that representation is eminently achievable for Salmond's outfit. Alba doesn't need to plunder the Green vote wholesale. If it steals only a third of the Green list vote then the Greens are out; add a small fraction of disgruntled Nat fundamentalists (and the SNP bagged over 40% of the list vote last time, which was almost entirely "wasted" except in the South) and Alba is in.

    Given that we can assume that the SNP will at worst get reasonably close to an outright majority from the constituency vote, it's going to take a very precise combination of Green and Alba support for the two to cancel each other out and enable a theoretical Unionist majority. Possible, but unlikely.

    I'm sticking with the Farage Theory, at least unless or until there's substantial polling evidence much closer to the election to suggest that Alba is a damp squib and/or that the Green vote may be holding firm. My instinct is that Salmond will probably be able to gather enough support to get in.
    I just dont see why Alba should be able to steal green vote share. Is this new party talking a lot about climate change? I doubt it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    I have to stifle my laughter at Unionist parties’ hypocritical skirt clutching at any Green collaboration with the SNP (and by implication at Alba potentially doing the same) given that their only effective actions in Holyrood for the last 14 years have been by collaborating to defeat the hated EssEnnPee. Explicitly recommending that voters should vote tactically to block Indyref2 is just as much gaming the system as Salmond’s shenanigans.

    Personally aside from not thinking much of the potential Alba candidates announced so far, I’m not overly attracted to the idea of an artificial Indy supermajority. In a prospective referendum we have to persuade current don’t knows to Yes; starting off with the perception that they’re being railroaded into having to answer the question wouldn’t be a great beginning. Also what is the practical difference of this super majority to other outcomes? Is BJ going to see eg 60 SNP msps & 20 Alba msps as more persuasive than an SNP majority? I doubt it.

    A major problem Alba’s supporters appear to have had with the SNP is their tardiness over Indy, yet aside from mumbling about UDI and going to the courts I haven’t seen a single coherent description of what this fast track to freedom might be. Afaics the only route is to ramp up the reality of Scots having major decisions imposed upon us, aided if necessary by a consultative referendum organised by ourselves. If there’s a non-deranged Plan B I’m all ears.
  • https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1374755456711856133

    No overall change I would say this week then, a modest Tory lead remains which is impressive for a Government over a decade old.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966
    I don't think the my fellow Remain/Rejoiners concern over the current management of the EU suggests any reduction in our support for the project as a whole.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    The worry is that, like the Greens, he gets a pile of list votes which sets up an independence majority in the Parliament.

    But, to action that, he would have to vote for Sturgeon to be FM.

    Now that would be the ultimate ‘karma’s a bitch’ moment.
    I believe Krishnan Guru Murphy specifically asked him that on C4 news last night. Salmond more or less answered yes and that he would vote for Sturgeon if he lived in her constituency.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1374755456711856133

    No overall change I would say this week then, a modest Tory lead remains which is impressive for a Government over a decade old.

    The Party tag might be the same, but the change from May to Boris felt like a wholesale change of government.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    The worry is that, like the Greens, he gets a pile of list votes which sets up an independence majority in the Parliament.

    But, to action that, he would have to vote for Sturgeon to be FM.

    Now that would be the ultimate ‘karma’s a bitch’ moment.
    I believe Krishnan Guru Murphy specifically asked him that on C4 news last night. Salmond more or less answered yes and that he would vote for Sturgeon if he lived in her constituency.
    Then why is he starting up a whole new fecking party?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922

    I don't think the my fellow Remain/Rejoiners concern over the current management of the EU suggests any reduction in our support for the project as a whole.
    Depends on how you define the “project”. Sure, happy to be counted as pro-European in the broader sense, but within the current constitutional and administrative arrangements?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966
    There's some similarity between our PM's promises and pie-crust, is there not?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    DougSeal said:

    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.

    Once again, the Farage principle applies. It doesn't matter if he's unpopular with most voters, so long as he's the best thing since sliced bread for a sufficient number.

    If there are enough Malcs out there who think the SNP has grown too comfortable with devolution and want to rattle the cage bars a bit, then Salmond will be back in the game and the sock puppet Greens will be toast.
    The E&W Greens are level with and or beating the LD in many polls that include south of the border. They are becoming he second party in Germany. There is enough of a “pure” Green vote in Scotland to make any assumption that Alba will just hoover up their vote without trying premature at best surely?
    Possibly, although polls and elections are, of course, clean different things. The Greens are doing well, by their own modest standards, in UK opinion polling; in the last General Election they got less than 3%, consisting of one win, several decent performances, and nugatory levels of support in the bulk of the country (zero in approximately one quarter of seats, where they declined to stand at all.)

    We can disregard the German situation, where there is a decent chance of a Green becoming Chancellor in September. The German Greens are a very different animal.

    Fundamentally, one would've thought that representation is eminently achievable for Salmond's outfit. Alba doesn't need to plunder the Green vote wholesale. If it steals only a third of the Green list vote then the Greens are out; add a small fraction of disgruntled Nat fundamentalists (and the SNP bagged over 40% of the list vote last time, which was almost entirely "wasted" except in the South) and Alba is in.

    Given that we can assume that the SNP will at worst get reasonably close to an outright majority from the constituency vote, it's going to take a very precise combination of Green and Alba support for the two to cancel each other out and enable a theoretical Unionist majority. Possible, but unlikely.

    I'm sticking with the Farage Theory, at least unless or until there's substantial polling evidence much closer to the election to suggest that Alba is a damp squib and/or that the Green vote may be holding firm. My instinct is that Salmond will probably be able to gather enough support to get in.
    I just dont see why Alba should be able to steal green vote share. Is this new party talking a lot about climate change? I doubt it.
    Makes the assumption that the Green list vote is 100% ecosocialist and 0% tactical (whether that's voters playing the system, or independence backers registering a protest against the SNP.) I don't buy it.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    Great move from Thierry Henry. My twitter acc was suspended indefinitely because I shared a WhatsApp meme that infringed some copyright or other. They emailed me threatening this that and the other, said I should contact my lawyer and so on, and this was for “It’s coming Home” playing in the background of a joke! Yet sexist, racist, homophobic, general cruelty from anonymous accounts/trolls is less strictly controlled. I think getting a social media account should entail as much ID being shown as a bank account or passport

    “ Henry, most recently manager of Major League Soccer club Montreal Impact, is demanding more "accountability". "From tomorrow (Saturday) morning, I will be removing myself from social media until the people in power are able to regulate their platforms with the same vigour and ferocity that they currently do when you infringe copyright," he wrote. Accounts showing illegal Premier League football streams are often disrupted within seconds of being published, yet social media firms have been unable to stop the likes of Patrick van Aanholt, Kemar Roofe and Rhian Brewster and Willian being subjected to racist trolling.

    Henry added: "Until this changes, I will be disabling my accounts across all social platforms. I’m hoping this happens soon." Countless players have continued to be abused in recent weeks since the Premier League, Football League and FA joined forces during emergency talks to call out inaction“

    https://twitter.com/telefootball/status/1375761630605238275?s=21


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Agreeing about so much said about working from home. It's very hard to take much enjoyment from it; self-motivation is very hard. I've struggles massively. Can't wait to go back.

    Indeed.

    Without wishing to be mawkish, while I expend too much time on the place and am resolved to reduce that (time to get some sun), PB has really helped both distract and keep my spirits up. Yes, it's silly, but it's easier to be honest about feeling down with anonymous internet people in between chatter about politics and cricket.

    Pleasant day, and days, to all.
    What, no mention of my awesome punning? I’m hurt ☹️
    It has helped keep me sane, if it makes you any happier.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,231

    I have to stifle my laughter at Unionist parties’ hypocritical skirt clutching at any Green collaboration with the SNP (and by implication at Alba potentially doing the same) given that their only effective actions in Holyrood for the last 14 years have been by collaborating to defeat the hated EssEnnPee. Explicitly recommending that voters should vote tactically to block Indyref2 is just as much gaming the system as Salmond’s shenanigans.

    Personally aside from not thinking much of the potential Alba candidates announced so far, I’m not overly attracted to the idea of an artificial Indy supermajority. In a prospective referendum we have to persuade current don’t knows to Yes; starting off with the perception that they’re being railroaded into having to answer the question wouldn’t be a great beginning. Also what is the practical difference of this super majority to other outcomes? Is BJ going to see eg 60 SNP msps & 20 Alba msps as more persuasive than an SNP majority? I doubt it.

    A major problem Alba’s supporters appear to have had with the SNP is their tardiness over Indy, yet aside from mumbling about UDI and going to the courts I haven’t seen a single coherent description of what this fast track to freedom might be. Afaics the only route is to ramp up the reality of Scots having major decisions imposed upon us, aided if necessary by a consultative referendum organised by ourselves. If there’s a non-deranged Plan B I’m all ears.

    I'd go back to 1997. The entire history of Holyrood in its current incarnation is Unionist gaming. Beginning with the fiddling of the d'Hondt system.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Agreeing about so much said about working from home. It's very hard to take much enjoyment from it; self-motivation is very hard. I've struggles massively. Can't wait to go back.

    Indeed.

    Without wishing to be mawkish, while I expend too much time on the place and am resolved to reduce that (time to get some sun), PB has really helped both distract and keep my spirits up. Yes, it's silly, but it's easier to be honest about feeling down with anonymous internet people in between chatter about politics and cricket.

    Pleasant day, and days, to all.
    What, no mention of my awesome punning? I’m hurt ☹️
    It has helped keep me sane, if it makes you any happier.
    Really? Things are Lockering up.

    (You try making a pun on ‘Hurt’!)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    The worry is that, like the Greens, he gets a pile of list votes which sets up an independence majority in the Parliament.

    But, to action that, he would have to vote for Sturgeon to be FM.

    Now that would be the ultimate ‘karma’s a bitch’ moment.
    I believe Krishnan Guru Murphy specifically asked him that on C4 news last night. Salmond more or less answered yes and that he would vote for Sturgeon if he lived in her constituency.
    Then why is he starting up a whole new fecking party?
    As others have suggested, the thought of an Indy Scotland coming into being without his name being attached to it is abhorrent to Salmond. I’d guess that any revenge would be a more long term, strategic thing..
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,432
    edited March 27

    There's some similarity between our PM's promises and pie-crust, is there not?
    The little englander view. Whereas in Germany the debate is about how the country has become so dependent on China and what that holds in store. Merkel is horribly caught in this web much as she is with Putins energy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1374755456711856133

    No overall change I would say this week then, a modest Tory lead remains which is impressive for a Government over a decade old.

    The Party tag might be the same, but the change from May to Boris felt like a wholesale change of government.
    Complete with heavy discounting.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    edited March 27

    There's some similarity between our PM's promises and pie-crust, is there not?
    Seems like vinegar on the cornflakes again has not brightened your mood - despite your claims.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 32,220

    DougSeal said:

    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.

    Once again, the Farage principle applies. It doesn't matter if he's unpopular with most voters, so long as he's the best thing since sliced bread for a sufficient number.

    If there are enough Malcs out there who think the SNP has grown too comfortable with devolution and want to rattle the cage bars a bit, then Salmond will be back in the game and the sock puppet Greens will be toast.
    The E&W Greens are level with and or beating the LD in many polls that include south of the border. They are becoming he second party in Germany. There is enough of a “pure” Green vote in Scotland to make any assumption that Alba will just hoover up their vote without trying premature at best surely?
    Possibly, although polls and elections are, of course, clean different things. The Greens are doing well, by their own modest standards, in UK opinion polling; in the last General Election they got less than 3%, consisting of one win, several decent performances, and nugatory levels of support in the bulk of the country (zero in approximately one quarter of seats, where they declined to stand at all.)

    We can disregard the German situation, where there is a decent chance of a Green becoming Chancellor in September. The German Greens are a very different animal.

    Fundamentally, one would've thought that representation is eminently achievable for Salmond's outfit. Alba doesn't need to plunder the Green vote wholesale. If it steals only a third of the Green list vote then the Greens are out; add a small fraction of disgruntled Nat fundamentalists (and the SNP bagged over 40% of the list vote last time, which was almost entirely "wasted" except in the South) and Alba is in.

    Given that we can assume that the SNP will at worst get reasonably close to an outright majority from the constituency vote, it's going to take a very precise combination of Green and Alba support for the two to cancel each other out and enable a theoretical Unionist majority. Possible, but unlikely.

    I'm sticking with the Farage Theory, at least unless or until there's substantial polling evidence much closer to the election to suggest that Alba is a damp squib and/or that the Green vote may be holding firm. My instinct is that Salmond will probably be able to gather enough support to get in.
    Greens are weak as well, much of their vote was independence supporters who did not want to vote SNP.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 12,698

    A major problem Alba’s supporters appear to have had with the SNP is their tardiness over Indy, yet aside from mumbling about UDI and going to the courts I haven’t seen a single coherent description of what this fast track to freedom might be. Afaics the only route is to ramp up the reality of Scots having major decisions imposed upon us, aided if necessary by a consultative referendum organised by ourselves. If there’s a non-deranged Plan B I’m all ears.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1375748177157107713

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1375748876561436677

    Get your marching trousers on.

    And your flags...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966

    There's some similarity between our PM's promises and pie-crust, is there not?
    The little englander view. Whereas in Germany the debate is about how the country has become so dependent on China and what that holds in store. Merkel is horribly caught in this web much as she is with Putins energy.
    Agree; understandable concern.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 32,220
    edited March 27
    Scott_xP said:

    A major problem Alba’s supporters appear to have had with the SNP is their tardiness over Indy, yet aside from mumbling about UDI and going to the courts I haven’t seen a single coherent description of what this fast track to freedom might be. Afaics the only route is to ramp up the reality of Scots having major decisions imposed upon us, aided if necessary by a consultative referendum organised by ourselves. If there’s a non-deranged Plan B I’m all ears.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1375748177157107713

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1375748876561436677

    Get your marching trousers on.

    And your flags...
    @Theuniondivvie Panic setting in Scott. Sure Alex has your phone number and will call you up for ideas.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    Scott_xP said:

    A major problem Alba’s supporters appear to have had with the SNP is their tardiness over Indy, yet aside from mumbling about UDI and going to the courts I haven’t seen a single coherent description of what this fast track to freedom might be. Afaics the only route is to ramp up the reality of Scots having major decisions imposed upon us, aided if necessary by a consultative referendum organised by ourselves. If there’s a non-deranged Plan B I’m all ears.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1375748177157107713

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1375748876561436677

    Get your marching trousers on.

    And your flags...
    Marching kilt surely?

    Plenty of marches in favour of the Union raring to go after a year of abstinence in my bit. Will you be gracing them with your presence?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    edited March 27
    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.

    Once again, the Farage principle applies. It doesn't matter if he's unpopular with most voters, so long as he's the best thing since sliced bread for a sufficient number.

    If there are enough Malcs out there who think the SNP has grown too comfortable with devolution and want to rattle the cage bars a bit, then Salmond will be back in the game and the sock puppet Greens will be toast.
    The E&W Greens are level with and or beating the LD in many polls that include south of the border. They are becoming he second party in Germany. There is enough of a “pure” Green vote in Scotland to make any assumption that Alba will just hoover up their vote without trying premature at best surely?
    Possibly, although polls and elections are, of course, clean different things. The Greens are doing well, by their own modest standards, in UK opinion polling; in the last General Election they got less than 3%, consisting of one win, several decent performances, and nugatory levels of support in the bulk of the country (zero in approximately one quarter of seats, where they declined to stand at all.)

    We can disregard the German situation, where there is a decent chance of a Green becoming Chancellor in September. The German Greens are a very different animal.

    Fundamentally, one would've thought that representation is eminently achievable for Salmond's outfit. Alba doesn't need to plunder the Green vote wholesale. If it steals only a third of the Green list vote then the Greens are out; add a small fraction of disgruntled Nat fundamentalists (and the SNP bagged over 40% of the list vote last time, which was almost entirely "wasted" except in the South) and Alba is in.

    Given that we can assume that the SNP will at worst get reasonably close to an outright majority from the constituency vote, it's going to take a very precise combination of Green and Alba support for the two to cancel each other out and enable a theoretical Unionist majority. Possible, but unlikely.

    I'm sticking with the Farage Theory, at least unless or until there's substantial polling evidence much closer to the election to suggest that Alba is a damp squib and/or that the Green vote may be holding firm. My instinct is that Salmond will probably be able to gather enough support to get in.
    Greens are weak as well, much of their vote was independence supporters who did not want to vote SNP.
    Wasn’t the point of voting Green on the list, that the system delivers more pro-indy MSPs if people vote for different parties in the constituency and list votes?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.

    Once again, the Farage principle applies. It doesn't matter if he's unpopular with most voters, so long as he's the best thing since sliced bread for a sufficient number.

    If there are enough Malcs out there who think the SNP has grown too comfortable with devolution and want to rattle the cage bars a bit, then Salmond will be back in the game and the sock puppet Greens will be toast.
    Unlike Farage he’s a terribly diminished figure. What is now known about his behaviour towards women, and his spiteful vendetta make him repellent to all but a few.
    But how few? Is he so diminished that he can't get 6-7% of the list vote? I'm not so sure.

    Scotland is, of course, now hopelessly polarized along the separatist-unionist axis. We know what happens in situations like that from Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein first entered Parliament in 1983 at a time when their paramilitary counterparts where shooting people and exploding bombs left, right and centre. What Salmond has done - and bear in mind that he has been exonerated in court of all the more serious, criminal allegations - is unsavoury but nonetheless absolute peanuts by comparison. Why should we expect his more ardent supporters to abandon him over it?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,469
    Morning folks

    not sure if this has been mentioned yet but yesterday the German Constitutional Court blocked German ratification of the 750 billion Euro EU bailout plan. They are hearing arguments against German ratification and have blocked the plan until those hearings are completed.

    https://www.ft.com/content/74841ea6-4fbf-4c7a-b015-66ba191ffc9b

    So what do the EU do if Germany is not allowed to take part in the bailout? Where does the money come from and are they actually allowed to go ahead without German approval?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 12,698
    I think my marching days are over, but I was there on this day

    image

    I am just out of shot on the left...
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    He’s just a has-been, sex pest. I expect his party to sink without trace pretty quickly. As a Green Party spokesman noted yesterday he’s even less popular in Scotland than Boris Johnson.

    Once again, the Farage principle applies. It doesn't matter if he's unpopular with most voters, so long as he's the best thing since sliced bread for a sufficient number.

    If there are enough Malcs out there who think the SNP has grown too comfortable with devolution and want to rattle the cage bars a bit, then Salmond will be back in the game and the sock puppet Greens will be toast.
    The E&W Greens are level with and or beating the LD in many polls that include south of the border. They are becoming he second party in Germany. There is enough of a “pure” Green vote in Scotland to make any assumption that Alba will just hoover up their vote without trying premature at best surely?
    Possibly, although polls and elections are, of course, clean different things. The Greens are doing well, by their own modest standards, in UK opinion polling; in the last General Election they got less than 3%, consisting of one win, several decent performances, and nugatory levels of support in the bulk of the country (zero in approximately one quarter of seats, where they declined to stand at all.)

    We can disregard the German situation, where there is a decent chance of a Green becoming Chancellor in September. The German Greens are a very different animal.

    Fundamentally, one would've thought that representation is eminently achievable for Salmond's outfit. Alba doesn't need to plunder the Green vote wholesale. If it steals only a third of the Green list vote then the Greens are out; add a small fraction of disgruntled Nat fundamentalists (and the SNP bagged over 40% of the list vote last time, which was almost entirely "wasted" except in the South) and Alba is in.

    Given that we can assume that the SNP will at worst get reasonably close to an outright majority from the constituency vote, it's going to take a very precise combination of Green and Alba support for the two to cancel each other out and enable a theoretical Unionist majority. Possible, but unlikely.

    I'm sticking with the Farage Theory, at least unless or until there's substantial polling evidence much closer to the election to suggest that Alba is a damp squib and/or that the Green vote may be holding firm. My instinct is that Salmond will probably be able to gather enough support to get in.
    Greens are weak as well, much of their vote was independence supporters who did not want to vote SNP.
    But surely the independence voters voting green are left wing voters who really wouldn't be likely to vote for Alba's more centralist / wet right policies.

    The issue is really how does the SNP use Alba to get a super majority of seats without making it too blooming obvious.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    Morning folks

    not sure if this has been mentioned yet but yesterday the German Constitutional Court blocked German ratification of the 750 billion Euro EU bailout plan. They are hearing arguments against German ratification and have blocked the plan until those hearings are completed.

    https://www.ft.com/content/74841ea6-4fbf-4c7a-b015-66ba191ffc9b

    So what do the EU do if Germany is not allowed to take part in the bailout? Where does the money come from and are they actually allowed to go ahead without German approval?

    Whether they want to or not, whether it’s legally permissible or not, surely in the real world the whole thing becomes completely impracticable without German money?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,376
    "Prince Charles's stepson Tom Parker Bowles is devastated by the cancer death of his girlfriend, 42, after her diagnosis was delayed by Covid lockdown"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-9408485/EDEN-CONFIDENTIAL-Prince-Charless-stepson-left-devastated-death-girlfriend.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    .
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Agreeing about so much said about working from home. It's very hard to take much enjoyment from it; self-motivation is very hard. I've struggles massively. Can't wait to go back.

    Indeed.

    Without wishing to be mawkish, while I expend too much time on the place and am resolved to reduce that (time to get some sun), PB has really helped both distract and keep my spirits up. Yes, it's silly, but it's easier to be honest about feeling down with anonymous internet people in between chatter about politics and cricket.

    Pleasant day, and days, to all.
    What, no mention of my awesome punning? I’m hurt ☹️
    It has helped keep me sane, if it makes you any happier.
    Really? Things are Lockering up.

    (You try making a pun on ‘Hurt’!)
    I know - it’s chestburtingly difficult.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    ydoethur said:

    JonathanD said:

    DougSeal said:

    JonathanD said:

    Interesting vaccine production chart. For all the hoorah, the UKs vaccine production has actually been very poor. Oxford Unis vaccine gave us a head start that we seem to have squandered.

    https://twitter.com/GitaGopinath/status/1375557532224225282?s=19

    I don’t think it fair to say “poor”. We are by all measures the smallest of the five listed and producing only one vaccine, and then from a standing start.
    Life sciences are meant to be one of our strengths however and we have had nearly a year to be maximising production capabilities.

    Also we need to be learning for the future. There was talk of millions of AZ doses being delivered last autumn which never materialised but it must have been thought that the capacity existed. Is this a problem with UK manufacturing?
    No, it’s just that every pharmaceutical company gave hopelessly optimistic production figures to try and secure orders to fund development.

    The difference is we and the Americans are not whingeing about it, unlike the EU.

    I’m intrigued though that the USA have produced that many vaccines yet as I understand it are some way behind us in terms of actual jabs in arms. Is that because of the shambles that is their healthcare process (it doesn’t deserve to be called a system)?
    The US is getting far more refusals (although in their system you have to ask, anyway) and they started later, but look likely to overtake us next month
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,166
    edited March 27
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Agreeing about so much said about working from home. It's very hard to take much enjoyment from it; self-motivation is very hard. I've struggles massively. Can't wait to go back.

    Indeed.

    Without wishing to be mawkish, while I expend too much time on the place and am resolved to reduce that (time to get some sun), PB has really helped both distract and keep my spirits up. Yes, it's silly, but it's easier to be honest about feeling down with anonymous internet people in between chatter about politics and cricket.

    Pleasant day, and days, to all.
    What, no mention of my awesome punning? I’m hurt ☹️
    It has helped keep me sane, if it makes you any happier.
    I'm not sure there's anything sane about ydoethur's puns. Genius or madness, only history can decide.
    Scott_xP said:
    Not much to be done. They are fragmented for policy reasons, so cooperation is pretty limited to hoping unionist voters can back the other parties up when the situation arises, without formal alliance.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,469
    ydoethur said:

    Morning folks

    not sure if this has been mentioned yet but yesterday the German Constitutional Court blocked German ratification of the 750 billion Euro EU bailout plan. They are hearing arguments against German ratification and have blocked the plan until those hearings are completed.

    https://www.ft.com/content/74841ea6-4fbf-4c7a-b015-66ba191ffc9b

    So what do the EU do if Germany is not allowed to take part in the bailout? Where does the money come from and are they actually allowed to go ahead without German approval?

    Whether they want to or not, whether it’s legally permissible or not, surely in the real world the whole thing becomes completely impracticable without German money?
    It is interesting that the objection is that it allows for the first time for the EU to raise debt on the capital markets which apparently breaches both the EU treaties and, down the line, the German constitution. It looks as if, if this challenge succeeds, then the only way to pay for the bailout is by direct payments from the richer EU states.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    ydoethur said:

    Morning folks

    not sure if this has been mentioned yet but yesterday the German Constitutional Court blocked German ratification of the 750 billion Euro EU bailout plan. They are hearing arguments against German ratification and have blocked the plan until those hearings are completed.

    https://www.ft.com/content/74841ea6-4fbf-4c7a-b015-66ba191ffc9b

    So what do the EU do if Germany is not allowed to take part in the bailout? Where does the money come from and are they actually allowed to go ahead without German approval?

    Whether they want to or not, whether it’s legally permissible or not, surely in the real world the whole thing becomes completely impracticable without German money?
    It has been said more than once that Germany's ability to participate in these wheezes is finite, that it can only commit so much money before the constitutional court steps in and rules that the payments violate the prerogatives of the Bundestag, and that Germany will ultimately have to vote to give itself a new constitution to enable further European integration to proceed.

    Fudges have always been found before, but perhaps we're finally reaching the limit of what the court will allow to pass? We shall see.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 13,481
    Another AZ anecdote from a colleague:

    No flu-like symptoms, but a couple of days after the vaccination his arm hurt like hell and he could barely raise it. This lasted for 2-3 days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited March 27
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Agreeing about so much said about working from home. It's very hard to take much enjoyment from it; self-motivation is very hard. I've struggles massively. Can't wait to go back.

    Indeed.

    Without wishing to be mawkish, while I expend too much time on the place and am resolved to reduce that (time to get some sun), PB has really helped both distract and keep my spirits up. Yes, it's silly, but it's easier to be honest about feeling down with anonymous internet people in between chatter about politics and cricket.

    Pleasant day, and days, to all.
    What, no mention of my awesome punning? I’m hurt ☹️
    It has helped keep me sane, if it makes you any happier.
    I'm not sure there's anything sane about ydoethur's puns. Genius or madness, only history can decide.
    Madnesss? I’m as sane as the next man.

    (If the next post is from Leon, I shall be bloody annoyed.)

    Edit - I can live with them being Sandy and Mark.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776

    ydoethur said:

    Morning folks

    not sure if this has been mentioned yet but yesterday the German Constitutional Court blocked German ratification of the 750 billion Euro EU bailout plan. They are hearing arguments against German ratification and have blocked the plan until those hearings are completed.

    https://www.ft.com/content/74841ea6-4fbf-4c7a-b015-66ba191ffc9b

    So what do the EU do if Germany is not allowed to take part in the bailout? Where does the money come from and are they actually allowed to go ahead without German approval?

    Whether they want to or not, whether it’s legally permissible or not, surely in the real world the whole thing becomes completely impracticable without German money?
    It is interesting that the objection is that it allows for the first time for the EU to raise debt on the capital markets which apparently breaches both the EU treaties and, down the line, the German constitution. It looks as if, if this challenge succeeds, then the only way to pay for the bailout is by direct payments from the richer EU states.
    At which point, our decision to wave "Cheerio" looks ever more timely.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738

    ydoethur said:

    Morning folks

    not sure if this has been mentioned yet but yesterday the German Constitutional Court blocked German ratification of the 750 billion Euro EU bailout plan. They are hearing arguments against German ratification and have blocked the plan until those hearings are completed.

    https://www.ft.com/content/74841ea6-4fbf-4c7a-b015-66ba191ffc9b

    So what do the EU do if Germany is not allowed to take part in the bailout? Where does the money come from and are they actually allowed to go ahead without German approval?

    Whether they want to or not, whether it’s legally permissible or not, surely in the real world the whole thing becomes completely impracticable without German money?
    It is interesting that the objection is that it allows for the first time for the EU to raise debt on the capital markets which apparently breaches both the EU treaties and, down the line, the German constitution. It looks as if, if this challenge succeeds, then the only way to pay for the bailout is by direct payments from the richer EU states.
    At which point, our decision to wave "Cheerio" looks ever more timely.
    I suspect Boris is a very lucky general...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776

    Morning folks

    not sure if this has been mentioned yet but yesterday the German Constitutional Court blocked German ratification of the 750 billion Euro EU bailout plan. They are hearing arguments against German ratification and have blocked the plan until those hearings are completed.

    https://www.ft.com/content/74841ea6-4fbf-4c7a-b015-66ba191ffc9b

    So what do the EU do if Germany is not allowed to take part in the bailout? Where does the money come from and are they actually allowed to go ahead without German approval?

    The German Constitutional Court looks to be a more semi-detached member of the EU than the UK ever was!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    edited March 27
    Nigelb said:

    .

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Agreeing about so much said about working from home. It's very hard to take much enjoyment from it; self-motivation is very hard. I've struggles massively. Can't wait to go back.

    Indeed.

    Without wishing to be mawkish, while I expend too much time on the place and am resolved to reduce that (time to get some sun), PB has really helped both distract and keep my spirits up. Yes, it's silly, but it's easier to be honest about feeling down with anonymous internet people in between chatter about politics and cricket.

    Pleasant day, and days, to all.
    What, no mention of my awesome punning? I’m hurt ☹️
    It has helped keep me sane, if it makes you any happier.
    Really? Things are Lockering up.

    (You try making a pun on ‘Hurt’!)
    I know - it’s chestburtingly difficult.
    Was that reference Alien to you ?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    ydoethur said:

    Morning folks

    not sure if this has been mentioned yet but yesterday the German Constitutional Court blocked German ratification of the 750 billion Euro EU bailout plan. They are hearing arguments against German ratification and have blocked the plan until those hearings are completed.

    https://www.ft.com/content/74841ea6-4fbf-4c7a-b015-66ba191ffc9b

    So what do the EU do if Germany is not allowed to take part in the bailout? Where does the money come from and are they actually allowed to go ahead without German approval?

    Whether they want to or not, whether it’s legally permissible or not, surely in the real world the whole thing becomes completely impracticable without German money?
    It is interesting that the objection is that it allows for the first time for the EU to raise debt on the capital markets which apparently breaches both the EU treaties and, down the line, the German constitution. It looks as if, if this challenge succeeds, then the only way to pay for the bailout is by direct payments from the richer EU states.
    So Germany sells, at a guess, 300 billion euros worth of bonds on the market and hands all the cash over to the European Commission? That'll go down well.

    And then there's the issue of heavily indebted and economically crippled Club Med states having to raise material sums to contribute towards the pot themselves, before they can get anything back out of it?

    Surely the whole point of raising the debt collectively was to mask the fact that it was all. effectively, still going onto the balance sheets of the member states, as shareholders in the collective? Hose down struggling Portugal, for example, with money borrowed through the apparently solvent EU, rather than Lisbon having to go to the well yet again itself?

    Might just as well ask Germany and the rest of the creditors to give the money directly to the debtor state governments as gifts and cut out the middle woman.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    Agreeing about so much said about working from home. It's very hard to take much enjoyment from it; self-motivation is very hard. I've struggles massively. Can't wait to go back.

    Indeed.

    Without wishing to be mawkish, while I expend too much time on the place and am resolved to reduce that (time to get some sun), PB has really helped both distract and keep my spirits up. Yes, it's silly, but it's easier to be honest about feeling down with anonymous internet people in between chatter about politics and cricket.

    Pleasant day, and days, to all.
    What, no mention of my awesome punning? I’m hurt ☹️
    It has helped keep me sane, if it makes you any happier.
    Really? Things are Lockering up.

    (You try making a pun on ‘Hurt’!)
    I know - it’s chestburtingly difficult.
    Was that reference Alien to you ?
    Yes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    US sanctions on Iran just became a lot less effective.

    China, Iran expected to sign 25-year accord
    http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=306189
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,443
    edited March 27
    Scott_xP said:

    I think my marching days are over, but I was there on this day

    image

    I am just out of shot on the left...

    Lol, happy days!

    As it happens the last march I went on in Glasgow was the anti Iraq war one which Blair was supposed to address at the end, unfortunately the fecker crapped out at the prospect of 100k Glasgow raspberries.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 13,481
    Scott_xP said:
    So is DRoss going to tell Tories in the Borders to vote Labour on the list? I doubt it.
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