Check the 4 criteria: - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
It's specifically linked to hospitals this so not much of a get out clause, we're now under 4k in hospital and under 300 daily hospitalisations. The latter number will start to drop again and reach a very low number as the vaccine becomes effective for the more recent recipients and the second dose programme reaches the 15m in groups 1-4 over the next 4 or 5 weeks.
Ah, but all it takes is for someone to publish a frightening model *predicting* a rise in hospitalisations and the get out clause becomes available. The argument can always be advanced that we must obey the model, because if it turns out to be true and we do nothing we'll be sunk. By the time a large increase in hospitalisations has started, it is too late to choke it off.
I hope that doesn't happen, and I have a certain degree of confidence that it won't, but I can envisage that it might. This is why I won't believe unlocking will happen according to plan until it actually does.
The EU waived their right to sue AZ so it won't come to a lawsuit. AZ can simply refuse to agree anything in the dispute resolution mechanism and let them bitch.
My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.
For some reason, your username and that anecdote made me think of this:
Check the 4 criteria: - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
It's specifically linked to hospitals this so not much of a get out clause, we're now under 4k in hospital and under 300 daily hospitalisations. The latter number will start to drop again and reach a very low number as the vaccine becomes effective for the more recent recipients and the second dose programme reaches the 15m in groups 1-4 over the next 4 or 5 weeks.
Ah, but all it takes is for someone to publish a frightening model *predicting* a rise in hospitalisations and the get out clause becomes available. The argument can always be advanced that we must obey the model, because if it turns out to be true and we do nothing we'll be sunk. By the time a large increase in hospitalisations has started, it is too late to choke it off.
I hope that doesn't happen, and I have a certain degree of confidence that it won't, but I can envisage that it might. This is why I won't believe unlocking will happen according to plan until it actually does.
No, it doesn't follow becuase the known hospitalisation rate among younger cohorts is too low to warrant such a step. That's why the zero COVID crew were so upset that the government chose hospitalisation as the key metric rather than case numbers.
My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.
Find a woman at least ten years younger than your ex, and bed her. Then make sure your ex knows, preferably with a photo of the new one
Drives them absolutely MAD.
The hatred many women feel for considerably younger women is quite startling
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.
Find a woman at least ten years younger than your ex, and bed her. Then make sure your ex knows, preferably with a photo of the new one
Drives them absolutely MAD.
The hatred many women feel for considerably younger women is quite startling
The flaw in that plan might be my wife who is not 10 year younger. Actually I picked up my now spouse on the rebound from now jabbed ex and it is universally recognised by those in the know that I managed a significant upgrade. Nice idea though.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is vaccination rates in older cohorts there are poor so there's a large number of them who haven't had the vaccine and a large number of care and healthcare workers who also haven't had it that will spread it to them.
My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.
Find a woman at least ten years younger than your ex, and bed her. Then make sure your ex knows, preferably with a photo of the new one
Drives them absolutely MAD.
The hatred many women feel for considerably younger women is quite startling
The flaw in that plan might be my wife who is not 10 year younger. Actually I picked up my now spouse on the rebound from now jabbed ex and it is universally recognised by those in the know that I managed a significant upgrade. Nice idea though.
Good for you! Keep my plan in reserve, just in case
I presume France etc are still also following the 3 week vaccination strategy rather than the 12 week pseudo-science one we are? And thus not getting anywhere near the amount of widespread coverage.
Yes, and they're holding doses back. So that means that - even in a best case scenario - they're sitting on hundreds of thousands of doses that could be in peoples' arms.
I would note that many other places also follow this strategy. And it's retarded.
Tbf, the UK is basically alone following this strategy. The data in favour is incontrovertible, 80% protection from hospitalisation and 85% against death with one dose of Pfizer for over 70s. There's literally no reason for countries to follow any other strategy for any vaccine. The gap should be extended and JiT supply chains should be used. It's all upside.
There might have been a reason once, but then we kindly ran a 20m person trial for them.
My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.
Find a woman at least ten years younger than your ex, and bed her. Then make sure your ex knows, preferably with a photo of the new one
Drives them absolutely MAD.
The hatred many women feel for considerably younger women is quite startling
The flaw in that plan might be my wife who is not 10 year younger. Actually I picked up my now spouse on the rebound from now jabbed ex and it is universally recognised by those in the know that I managed a significant upgrade. Nice idea though.
Good for you! Keep my plan in reserve, just in case
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Check the 4 criteria: - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
We can’t be sure. We can’t be sure that we won’t get hit by an asteroid tomorrow either. The only scientist I know who is panicking is that public health expert from Edinburgh Uni who is a professional doom merchant anyway. Any others? There is no reason to panic. We are two weeks into the schools going back. If this wasn’t expected then what was?
I agree that there doesn't appear to be a problem. I think it likely that there won't be a problem with any other stage of the unlocking plan either. They're all spaced so far apart that they give time for more vaccinations, on top of the fact that somewhere northwards of 90% of everyone who's clinically vulnerable or over 50 should've had the jab in another couple of weeks' time. The question is whether or not the people who actually make the decisions will manage to hold firm if cases keep escalating. That's all.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
I doubt that tbh.
Most of Europe have given a dose to less than 10% of their population, including France, and there are a lot of strategies not driven by clinical risk. To be fair, this is probably 12-13% of adults.
That is, 87-88% of adults minus people with significant resistance through having had COVID will be vulnerable to the new variant.
Plus those who have had the vaccinations in the last two weeks or so. Which puts it back to about 90%.
And much of that is already baked in, as it was here before Christmas.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They have vaccinated 9.4 million out of 68 million. There is no way that is their wrinkles covered....
Why do you think Macaroon and the other biscuits are jumping up and down about AZN?
Yeah. I thought this kind of thing might start happening. Ultimately you can only lockdown hard for so long. We’ve been remarkably stoic about it here IMHO.
I'd treat the MRP for Hartlepool with extreme caution.
They've polled 5,265 voters in 83 northern English constituencies between March 18 and 21 (which works out at barely 60 voters per constituency) and then retrofitted it into their demographic model, and applied that to Hartlepool.
Remember: MRPs are pretty accurate for General Elections nationally because they're done about one week to two weeks out from when they are held and they're testing imminent votes by demographics. And even then it gets some individual seats wrong: the final MRP in Dec 2019 was out by 30 seats.
So, the error in Hartlepool could be huge. The Tories could be on 40% and Labour on 30%, or Labour could be storming it on 40% with the Tories on 30% - we just don't know. The Tories haven't picked a candidate yet, Labour have, the writ has only just been moved, campaigning hasn't really started yet, the eyes of the media aren't yet on it, and we don't know what the zeitgeist will be like in May etc. etc.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.
Find a woman at least ten years younger than your ex, and bed her. Then make sure your ex knows, preferably with a photo of the new one
Drives them absolutely MAD.
The hatred many women feel for considerably younger women is quite startling
The flaw in that plan might be my wife who is not 10 year younger. Actually I picked up my now spouse on the rebound from now jabbed ex and it is universally recognised by those in the know that I managed a significant upgrade. Nice idea though.
I'd treat the MRP for Hartlepool with extreme caution.
They've polled 5,265 voters in 83 northern English constituencies between March 18 and 21 (which works out at barely 60 voters per constituency) and then retrofitted it into their demographic model, and applied that to Hartlepool.
Remember: MRPs are pretty accurate for General Elections nationally because they're done about one week to two weeks out from when they are held and they're testing imminent votes by demographics. And even then it gets some individual seats wrong: the final MRP in Dec 2019 was out by 30 seats.
So, the error in Hartlepool could be huge. The Tories could be on 40% and Labour on 30%, or Labour could be storming it on 40% with the Tories on 30% - we just don't know. The Tories haven't picked a candidate yet, Labour have, the writ has only just been moved, campaigning hasn't really started yet, the eyes of the media aren't yet on it, and we don't know what the zeitgeist will be like in May etc. etc.
So bet with care.
Personally, on the rare occasions I bet, I prefer to bet with money.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Check the 4 criteria: - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
It's specifically linked to hospitals this so not much of a get out clause, we're now under 4k in hospital and under 300 daily hospitalisations. The latter number will start to drop again and reach a very low number as the vaccine becomes effective for the more recent recipients and the second dose programme reaches the 15m in groups 1-4 over the next 4 or 5 weeks.
Ah, but all it takes is for someone to publish a frightening model *predicting* a rise in hospitalisations and the get out clause becomes available. The argument can always be advanced that we must obey the model, because if it turns out to be true and we do nothing we'll be sunk. By the time a large increase in hospitalisations has started, it is too late to choke it off.
I hope that doesn't happen, and I have a certain degree of confidence that it won't, but I can envisage that it might. This is why I won't believe unlocking will happen according to plan until it actually does.
No, it doesn't follow because the known hospitalisation rate among younger cohorts is too low to warrant such a step. That's why the zero COVID crew were so upset that the government chose hospitalisation as the key metric rather than case numbers.
The Doctors of Doom have an answer to that argument too:
But if cases continue to rise, does this matter? After all, 99% of Covid deaths have been in the groups now vaccinated.
The link between infections and serious illness or death has been "severely weakened", says diseases expert Prof Mark Woolhouse, of Edinburgh University.
But if infection levels rise high enough the virus "will find those" who are unvaccinated and those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked, he says.
While the vaccines are good - they significantly reduce the risk of falling ill and for those who do develop symptoms there is a strong likelihood it will be a fairly mild cough, fever or short period of breathlessness - they are not 100% perfect.
So Prof Woolhouse warns there could still be significant numbers of deaths, even if the threat to the NHS is much reduced.
What nobody can be sure of is just how quickly and by how much infection levels could rise in the coming months.
The natural R rate - how many people the average person who is infected passes the virus on to - was between three and four for this coronavirus, but with the new more contagious variant dominant, it could now be around five, some believe.
Dr Duncan Robertson, a disease modeller at Loughborough University, believes we are in "essentially a new epidemic". "This is the first time we are lifting restrictions with the new variant - it could take off and those areas with the lowest vaccination rates will be vulnerable."
This is my concern. Someone may invent a model that suggests the disease will seek and destroy the unprotected, generate a large scary number for additional deaths, and the Government could panic. Hopefully it wouldn't, but it might.
I'd treat the MRP for Hartlepool with extreme caution.
They've polled 5,265 voters in 83 northern English constituencies between March 18 and 21 (which works out at barely 60 voters per constituency) and then retrofitted it into their demographic model, and applied that to Hartlepool.
Remember: MRPs are pretty accurate for General Elections nationally because they're done about one week to two weeks out from when they are held and they're testing imminent votes by demographics. And even then it gets some individual seats wrong: the final MRP in Dec 2019 was out by 30 seats.
So, the error in Hartlepool could be huge. The Tories could be on 40% and Labour on 30%, or Labour could be storming it on 40% with the Tories on 30% - we just don't know. The Tories haven't picked a candidate yet, Labour have, the writ has only just been moved, campaigning hasn't really started yet, the eyes of the media aren't yet on it, and we don't know what the zeitgeist will be like in May etc. etc.
So bet with care.
Personally, on the rare occasions I bet, I prefer to bet with money.
Offering your granny up as collateral is standard practice round here mate.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
Yeah. I thought this kind of thing might start happening. Ultimately you can only lockdown hard for so long. We’ve been remarkably stoic about it here IMHO.
More likely that, if Germany reveals the whereabouts of its magic money tree, the other EU countries will want a cutting.
Check the 4 criteria: - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
It's specifically linked to hospitals this so not much of a get out clause, we're now under 4k in hospital and under 300 daily hospitalisations. The latter number will start to drop again and reach a very low number as the vaccine becomes effective for the more recent recipients and the second dose programme reaches the 15m in groups 1-4 over the next 4 or 5 weeks.
Ah, but all it takes is for someone to publish a frightening model *predicting* a rise in hospitalisations and the get out clause becomes available. The argument can always be advanced that we must obey the model, because if it turns out to be true and we do nothing we'll be sunk. By the time a large increase in hospitalisations has started, it is too late to choke it off.
I hope that doesn't happen, and I have a certain degree of confidence that it won't, but I can envisage that it might. This is why I won't believe unlocking will happen according to plan until it actually does.
No, it doesn't follow because the known hospitalisation rate among younger cohorts is too low to warrant such a step. That's why the zero COVID crew were so upset that the government chose hospitalisation as the key metric rather than case numbers.
The Doctors of Doom have an answer to that argument too:
But if cases continue to rise, does this matter? After all, 99% of Covid deaths have been in the groups now vaccinated.
The link between infections and serious illness or death has been "severely weakened", says diseases expert Prof Mark Woolhouse, of Edinburgh University.
But if infection levels rise high enough the virus "will find those" who are unvaccinated and those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked, he says.
While the vaccines are good - they significantly reduce the risk of falling ill and for those who do develop symptoms there is a strong likelihood it will be a fairly mild cough, fever or short period of breathlessness - they are not 100% perfect.
So Prof Woolhouse warns there could still be significant numbers of deaths, even if the threat to the NHS is much reduced.
What nobody can be sure of is just how quickly and by how much infection levels could rise in the coming months.
The natural R rate - how many people the average person who is infected passes the virus on to - was between three and four for this coronavirus, but with the new more contagious variant dominant, it could now be around five, some believe.
Dr Duncan Robertson, a disease modeller at Loughborough University, believes we are in "essentially a new epidemic". "This is the first time we are lifting restrictions with the new variant - it could take off and those areas with the lowest vaccination rates will be vulnerable."
This is my concern. Someone may invent a model that suggests the disease will seek and destroy the unprotected, generate a large scary number for additional deaths, and the Government could panic. Hopefully it wouldn't, but it might.
The key phrase there is “even if the threat to the NHS is much reduced”.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
I'd treat the MRP for Hartlepool with extreme caution.
They've polled 5,265 voters in 83 northern English constituencies between March 18 and 21 (which works out at barely 60 voters per constituency) and then retrofitted it into their demographic model, and applied that to Hartlepool.
Remember: MRPs are pretty accurate for General Elections nationally because they're done about one week to two weeks out from when they are held and they're testing imminent votes by demographics. And even then it gets some individual seats wrong: the final MRP in Dec 2019 was out by 30 seats.
So, the error in Hartlepool could be huge. The Tories could be on 40% and Labour on 30%, or Labour could be storming it on 40% with the Tories on 30% - we just don't know. The Tories haven't picked a candidate yet, Labour have, the writ has only just been moved, campaigning hasn't really started yet, the eyes of the media aren't yet on it, and we don't know what the zeitgeist will be like in May etc. etc.
So bet with care.
The NIP are an unknown quantity too. On the one hand I see a lot of support on Corbynite Twitter, but on the other hand they have gone bonkers this morning:
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
I can see it happening with armed police, forcing the Belgians to cough up. Yes
Picture it: 2500 French people are dying every day, the health system is collapsing (and maybe similar things are happening in Belgium itself, Germany, Italy, Poland)
At that point the choice is: save French lives or save British lives, we can't do both. Sending the vaccines to the UK will be morally impossible for the EU, no matter how strong the UK's "legal right" to the jabs, no matter how superior our contract.
It will cause international uproar, it will start a vaccine war, but in the face of mass death, I think the French would do it. And the Belgians might simply agree
That's Northern seats not % of Hartlepool vote. It's an MRP model.
How does a 15% swing fit with virtually every national opinion poll showing a swing of about 3 or 4%?
It isn't a 15% swing. It is 83 selected* Northern seats. Of these, Labour will gain 15 from the Tories. * Not sure at all how they were selected. I would have to assume representative.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
They could just nab it on the way to Calais.
Tbf, it's a possibility that has actually been wargamed I think. The UK and Belgian government already agreed RAF air shipments in a scenario where land shipping becomes impossible.
Check the 4 criteria: - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
We can’t be sure. We can’t be sure that we won’t get hit by an asteroid tomorrow either. The only scientist I know who is panicking is that public health expert from Edinburgh Uni who is a professional doom merchant anyway. Any others? There is no reason to panic. We are two weeks into the schools going back. If this wasn’t expected then what was?
I agree that there doesn't appear to be a problem. I think it likely that there won't be a problem with any other stage of the unlocking plan either. They're all spaced so far apart that they give time for more vaccinations, on top of the fact that somewhere northwards of 90% of everyone who's clinically vulnerable or over 50 should've had the jab in another couple of weeks' time. The question is whether or not the people who actually make the decisions will manage to hold firm if cases keep escalating. That's all.
If they delay the unlocking they will have a whole lot of different problems instead. Not an easy decision, and one which will not go away. It will be easier to stick to the timetable for the time being. There are no certainties here, and a government wobble could still take place just as France and Germany have changed their minds several times over the AZ vaccine.
What medication cocktail is he on? The rose-tinted variety, clearly
Even the current, much decreased, daily COVID death rate is higher than the number cited by Giuliani as YTD
The Tweet is a year old.
Well, that explains it.
So WHY re-post Giuliani's idiot tweets from yesteryear - here or anywhere?
Is somebody trying to help Rudy crawl out of whatever hole he's currently holed up in?
Was watching a documentary about his RICO prosecutions in the 80s. He seemed really switched on. What happened?
This - this is a guy who broke the Mafia in New York. Turned the town around.....
Alot of apparently normal people seemed to become dribbling fuckwits when they associated with Trump.
Does Trump enable the inner fuckwit? Is he a career of a disease that causes the IQ to drop 50 points?
There was always more hype than substance to Rudy G. ALWAYS.
His model was Tom Dewey, another over-rated headline-grabber who leveraged his position as young-turk New York prosecutor, to the governor's office and two nominations for POTUS.
Rudy lacked Dewey's gravitas. AND the guts to take on Hillary Clinton in 2000 for US Senate. Then thought he could ease his sorry ass into the White House; instead got it handed to him by the voters.
Then, clearly in desperate need for self-gratification AND boatloads of money, he glommed onto Trumpsky.
Certainly ballsy. Might not look so good if the morgues start overflowing
It's a combination of their being every bit as fed up of imprisonment as we are, and (possibly) a large dollop of exceptionalism. They made a better fist of containing the previous waves of the epidemic than other large European nations, perhaps some of them think they can therefore take a measured approach and get away with it?
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
They could just nab it on the way to Calais.
Tbf, it's a possibility that has actually been wargamed I think. The UK and Belgian government already agreed RAF air shipments in a scenario where land shipping becomes impossible.
There are ports in Belgium as well. Ostend springs to mind.
But it is just extraordinary that we are talking about having to use the RAF to fly in vaccines we have paid for because the EU are trying to steal them.
If you’d told me that was likely twelve months ago I’d have assumed you were either drunk as a certain Commission President or a pseudonym for Nigel Farage.
If Westminster continues to legislate to overrule the Scottish Parliament willy nilly when it suits, in complete disregard of the Sewell Convention, it makes a mockery of any DevoMax provision.
The end result is either Union on the same terms as Yorkshire or Warwickshire, or independence.
I'm a unionist and I fundamentally believe that the only wave to secure the union long term is to put in place a sustainable settlement. Otherwise, you're making the same mistake Blair made and not finishing the job.
So we have decide what Scotland's place within the union is. If that's DevoMax, then Westminster needs to accept it cannot treat Holyrood as a subordinate except on certain issues. There needs to be a clear and legal boundary - federalism if you will.
Union matters are reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998, the very Act which created Holyrood in the first place.
Scotland already has more home rule than any other country or region of the UK, England does not even have a Parliament at all and there is a distinct possibility that in 2024 the Tories would win a majority in England but Starmer would become PM thanks to support from Scottish and Welsh MPs
The Scotland Act puts the Sewell Convention on a statutory footing.
If Westminster simply ignores that and legislates how it wants, when it suits, on anything, by simply amending the Scotland Act, then what on earth is the point of it?
Scotland needs a sustainable long-term settlement. The current settlement is not that.
I thought the Conservative Party was supposed to be about long-term stability?
The Act doesn't do that re Sewell. It merely emits warm air. As was found in the runup to Brexit voting.
I know that in reality it doesn't mean anything but that's exactly my point.
If Westminster is never going to be willing to permanently cede power to the Scottish Parliament then DevoMax or similar will never be worth the paper it's written on.
Cannot be achieved without the total abandonment of the unwritten constitution and the evolutionary process which has characterised the development of the UK's system of governance for its entire history. If you want to get rid of the absolute power of the Crown in Parliament (by giving subsidiary bodies inviolable rights) then that means a written constitution, which would have to be passed by referendum and probably by majorities in all four constituent parts of the country to make it workable.
In order for that to happen, of course, there would first need to be a constitutional convention (that might drag on for years) in which all of the mainstream politicians, including the secessionist nationalist types, would somehow have to come to an agreement on what to include - although the whole process would probably collapse on the first morning when some bright spark insisted that any draft should include a trans rights clause. It's not going to happen.
That isn't true at all.
I've discussed this before.
Parliament can legislate to limit itself while retaining Parliamentary Sovereignty.
It's done it already when it legislated to allow the Commons to overrule the Lords. We didn't have a constitutional convention when we did that on a whim.
Parliament (Westminster) could legislate to change the procedure required for a bill to become an act, as it did with the Parliament Acts.
For example, it could require the Scottish Parliament to approve when legislating in certain subject areas, otherwise the act cannot become a law. Just as Parliament legislated to allow the Commons to overrule the Lords on a particular subject area: finance.
No Parliament can bind the hands of its successor. Legislation bolstering the power of a subsidiary body can always be amended.
You're missing the point entirely. Such legislation wouldn't "bolster the power of a subsidiary body", it would simply change the procedure of what makes a law a law.
Parliament can absolutely bind the hands of its successor if it chooses. Ultimately parliament is sovereign and can make any law it chooses including changing the process of what makes a law a law, as it has already done.
This isn't some hypothetical scenario - it's already happened!
Then a new parliament passes a law saying the “provisions of the Binding our Successors (FU Tories) Act notwithstanding, this is what we are actually going to do”
I see someone's started a new party whilst I've been at work, just like in the good old days.
Interesting move, and would make for a potentially wild Holyrood post election if Salmondo takes yet another comeback.
I can’t see this party being anything more than a laughing stock. Salmond is angry. But ultimately he’s also a disgraced sex pest who’s getting on a bit and whose last political outing was something of an embarrassment.
But at the same time I have the nagging thought that Salmond has been written off more often than Max Verstappen’s F1 car and yet somehow has always found a way to succeed.
I'd treat the MRP for Hartlepool with extreme caution.
They've polled 5,265 voters in 83 northern English constituencies between March 18 and 21 (which works out at barely 60 voters per constituency) and then retrofitted it into their demographic model, and applied that to Hartlepool.
Remember: MRPs are pretty accurate for General Elections nationally because they're done about one week to two weeks out from when they are held and they're testing imminent votes by demographics. And even then it gets some individual seats wrong: the final MRP in Dec 2019 was out by 30 seats.
So, the error in Hartlepool could be huge. The Tories could be on 40% and Labour on 30%, or Labour could be storming it on 40% with the Tories on 30% - we just don't know. The Tories haven't picked a candidate yet, Labour have, the writ has only just been moved, campaigning hasn't really started yet, the eyes of the media aren't yet on it, and we don't know what the zeitgeist will be like in May etc. etc.
So bet with care.
The NIP are an unknown quantity too. On the one hand I see a lot of support on Corbynite Twitter, but on the other hand they have gone bonkers this morning:
Politico.com - Trump’s secret sit-down with Ohio candidates turns into ‘Hunger Games’ The former president summoned four candidates for the state's open Senate seat in a session that resembled the boardroom scenes on "The Apprentice."
It was a scene right out of "The Apprentice."
Donald Trump was headlining a fundraiser on Wednesday night at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Fla. But before the dinner began, the former president had some business to take care of: He summoned four Republican Senate candidates vying for Ohio’s open Senate seat for a backroom meeting.
The contenders — former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, former state GOP Chair Jane Timken, technology company executive Bernie Moreno and investment banker Mike Gibbons — had flown down to attend the fundraiser to benefit a Trump-endorsed Ohio candidate looking to oust one of the 10 House Republicans who backed his impeachment. As the candidates mingled during a pre-dinner cocktail reception, one of the president's aides signaled to them that Trump wanted to huddle with them in a room just off the lobby.
What ensued was a 15-minute backroom backbiting session reminiscent of Trump’s reality TV show. Mandel said he was “crushing” Timken in polling. Timken touted her support on the ground thanks to her time as state party chair. Gibbons mentioned how he’d helped Trump’s campaign financially. Moreno noted that his daughter had worked on Trump’s 2020 campaign.
The scene illustrated what has become a central dynamic in the nascent 2022 race. In virtually every Republican primary, candidates are jockeying, auditioning and fighting for the former president’s backing. Trump has received overtures from a multitude of candidates desperate for his endorsement, something that top Republicans say gives him all-encompassing power to make-or-break the outcome of primaries.
And the former president, as was so often the case during his presidency, has seemed to relish pitting people against one another.
One person familiar with what transpired in Wednesday evening’s huddle described it as “Hunger Games,” an awkward showdown that none of them were expecting. Making matters even more uncomfortable, this person said, was that the rival candidates sat at a circular table, making it so that each had to face the others. . . .
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
They could just nab it on the way to Calais.
Tbf, it's a possibility that has actually been wargamed I think. The UK and Belgian government already agreed RAF air shipments in a scenario where land shipping becomes impossible.
There are ports in Belgium as well. Ostend springs to mind.
But it is just extraordinary that we are talking about having to use the RAF to fly in vaccines we have paid for because the EU are trying to steal them.
If you’d told me that was likely twelve months ago I’d have assumed you were either drunk as a certain Commission President or a pseudonym for Nigel Farage.
If the continent gets that bad, should we not just offer them? We trundle along at 20 a day and the EU is having 5,000 to 10,000? Theyve been utter c*cks over the last few weeks, but that isnt their citizens fault.
Certainly ballsy. Might not look so good if the morgues start overflowing
It's a combination of their being every bit as fed up of imprisonment as we are, and (possibly) a large dollop of exceptionalism. They made a better fist of containing the previous waves of the epidemic than other large European nations, perhaps some of them think they can therefore take a measured approach and get away with it?
Certainly ballsy. Might not look so good if the morgues start overflowing
It's a combination of their being every bit as fed up of imprisonment as we are, and (possibly) a large dollop of exceptionalism. They made a better fist of containing the previous waves of the epidemic than other large European nations, perhaps some of them think they can therefore take a measured approach and get away with it?
They will make a fascinating case study. The new Sweden
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
If it gets that bad, they still have to get arms jabbed. Perhaps it would act as a persuader.
But if it gets that bad and their people want the jabs, if we're still doing all right I doubt if we'd grudge them.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
They could just nab it on the way to Calais.
Tbf, it's a possibility that has actually been wargamed I think. The UK and Belgian government already agreed RAF air shipments in a scenario where land shipping becomes impossible.
There are ports in Belgium as well. Ostend springs to mind.
But it is just extraordinary that we are talking about having to use the RAF to fly in vaccines we have paid for because the EU are trying to steal them.
If you’d told me that was likely twelve months ago I’d have assumed you were either drunk as a certain Commission President or a pseudonym for Nigel Farage.
If the continent gets that bad, should we not just offer them? We trundle along at 20 a day and the EU is having 5,000 to 10,000? Theyve been utter c*cks over the last few weeks, but that isnt their citizens fault.
What is the point of offering them vaccines when, even leaving aside the supply issue, people are refusing to take them?
I'd treat the MRP for Hartlepool with extreme caution.
They've polled 5,265 voters in 83 northern English constituencies between March 18 and 21 (which works out at barely 60 voters per constituency) and then retrofitted it into their demographic model, and applied that to Hartlepool.
Remember: MRPs are pretty accurate for General Elections nationally because they're done about one week to two weeks out from when they are held and they're testing imminent votes by demographics. And even then it gets some individual seats wrong: the final MRP in Dec 2019 was out by 30 seats.
So, the error in Hartlepool could be huge. The Tories could be on 40% and Labour on 30%, or Labour could be storming it on 40% with the Tories on 30% - we just don't know. The Tories haven't picked a candidate yet, Labour have, the writ has only just been moved, campaigning hasn't really started yet, the eyes of the media aren't yet on it, and we don't know what the zeitgeist will be like in May etc. etc.
So bet with care.
The NIP are an unknown quantity too. On the one hand I see a lot of support on Corbynite Twitter, but on the other hand they have gone bonkers this morning:
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
If it gets that bad, they still have to get arms jabbed. Perhaps it would act as a persuader.
But if it gets that bad and their people want the jabs, if we're still doing all right I doubt if we'd grudge them.
But we desperately need those Pfizer jabs, I believe, because they are the second doses for many Brits.
Without them their immunity wanes and we have to restart the whole damn vax programme
I fear that this is what the French minister is referring to when he says we won't get our second doses. We won't get them, because the French/EU will steal them
I see someone's started a new party whilst I've been at work, just like in the good old days.
Interesting move, and would make for a potentially wild Holyrood post election if Salmondo makes yet another comeback.
What Salmond wants is for an SNP majority to be dependent on his vote, and I suspect that he would insist on a different leader.
Who?
And would he really be in a position to back any alternative party of government - which remember, would have to include the Tories merely to make an executive viable - to make such a threat realistic, or would Sturgeon simply dare him to do it and leave him looking toothless?
If he does go anywhere, more likely he’s humiliated by having to back Sturgeon.
Deaths in Spain oddly seem to be trending sharply upwards in the last week, despite cases until the last few days being pretty flat for a month after a decrease from January peak.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
They could just nab it on the way to Calais.
Tbf, it's a possibility that has actually been wargamed I think. The UK and Belgian government already agreed RAF air shipments in a scenario where land shipping becomes impossible.
There are ports in Belgium as well. Ostend springs to mind.
But it is just extraordinary that we are talking about having to use the RAF to fly in vaccines we have paid for because the EU are trying to steal them.
If you’d told me that was likely twelve months ago I’d have assumed you were either drunk as a certain Commission President or a pseudonym for Nigel Farage.
Ostend. Boris will like that... Churchill and all that...
My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.
Find a woman at least ten years younger than your ex, and bed her. Then make sure your ex knows, preferably with a photo of the new one
Drives them absolutely MAD.
The hatred many women feel for considerably younger women is quite startling
The flaw in that plan might be my wife who is not 10 year younger. Actually I picked up my now spouse on the rebound from now jabbed ex and it is universally recognised by those in the know that I managed a significant upgrade. Nice idea though.
Good for you! Keep my plan in reserve, just in case
Wouldn’t it be almost illegal and certainly a bit gross in your case?
My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.
Find a woman at least ten years younger than your ex, and bed her. Then make sure your ex knows, preferably with a photo of the new one
Drives them absolutely MAD.
The hatred many women feel for considerably younger women is quite startling
The flaw in that plan might be my wife who is not 10 year younger. Actually I picked up my now spouse on the rebound from now jabbed ex and it is universally recognised by those in the know that I managed a significant upgrade. Nice idea though.
Good for you! Keep my plan in reserve, just in case
Wouldn’t it be almost illegal and certainly a bit gross in your case?
Don't understand the French data. Reuters says 897 deaths. But Worldometer says just 363
?
Total is the same, so additional backdating?
Yes, seems to be backdated care home deaths, which they announce on Friday. So a genuine total, just spread out. A lot of deaths.....
FRENCH deaths.
Never send to ask for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.
Who is that by again? Very fitting for a plague.
John Donne.
(Third to say it!)
☺ Well if I was on Millionaire and asked the audience and 100% said John Donne, I'd go with it even for big money.
"I'll trust the audience, Chris. They look quite bright. John Donne."
"You sure? You did think it was Alex Ferguson or Winston Churchill."
"Nope. John Donne. Final answer."
That noise ...
"Kinabalu. Member of the Modern Metro Left - you've just won half a million pounds!"
And what a sublime piece of prose-poetry to build that win on. It is brilliant on every level.
No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.
Check the 4 criteria: - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
It's specifically linked to hospitals this so not much of a get out clause, we're now under 4k in hospital and under 300 daily hospitalisations. The latter number will start to drop again and reach a very low number as the vaccine becomes effective for the more recent recipients and the second dose programme reaches the 15m in groups 1-4 over the next 4 or 5 weeks.
Ah, but all it takes is for someone to publish a frightening model *predicting* a rise in hospitalisations and the get out clause becomes available. The argument can always be advanced that we must obey the model, because if it turns out to be true and we do nothing we'll be sunk. By the time a large increase in hospitalisations has started, it is too late to choke it off.
I hope that doesn't happen, and I have a certain degree of confidence that it won't, but I can envisage that it might. This is why I won't believe unlocking will happen according to plan until it actually does.
We've had three lockdowns so far. Which one was triggered in advance of large numbers of Covid patients turning up in hospital?
None of them.
Whitty and Vallance have explicitly said that they expect an increase in cases from schools going back, and that it doesn't overly concern them and is not a reason to halt the plan.
We're down to 44.3% of the adult population who haven't had a vaccine dose. The vaccine is ending this. Soon it will be over.
My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.
Find a woman at least ten years younger than your ex, and bed her. Then make sure your ex knows, preferably with a photo of the new one
Drives them absolutely MAD.
The hatred many women feel for considerably younger women is quite startling
The flaw in that plan might be my wife who is not 10 year younger. Actually I picked up my now spouse on the rebound from now jabbed ex and it is universally recognised by those in the know that I managed a significant upgrade. Nice idea though.
Good for you! Keep my plan in reserve, just in case
Wouldn’t it be almost illegal and certainly a bit gross in your case?
Apropos of nothing, did you ever find out if SeanT’s new squeeze actually was your cousin?
Don't understand the French data. Reuters says 897 deaths. But Worldometer says just 363
?
Total is the same, so additional backdating?
Yes, seems to be backdated care home deaths, which they announce on Friday. So a genuine total, just spread out. A lot of deaths.....
FRENCH deaths.
Never send to ask for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.
Who is that by again? Very fitting for a plague.
John Donne.
(Third to say it!)
☺ Well if I was on Millionaire and asked the audience and 100% said John Donne, I'd go with it even for big money.
"I'll trust the audience, Chris. They look quite bright. John Donne."
"You sure? You did think it was Alex Ferguson or Winston Churchill."
"Nope. John Donne. Final answer."
That noise ...
"Kinabalu. Member of the Modern Metro Left - you've just won half a million pounds!"
And what a sublime piece of prose-poetry to build that win on. It is brilliant on every level.
No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
I can see it happening with armed police, forcing the Belgians to cough up. Yes
Picture it: 2500 French people are dying every day, the health system is collapsing (and maybe similar things are happening in Belgium itself, Germany, Italy, Poland)
At that point the choice is: save French lives or save British lives, we can't do both. Sending the vaccines to the UK will be morally impossible for the EU, no matter how strong the UK's "legal right" to the jabs, no matter how superior our contract.
It will cause international uproar, it will start a vaccine war, but in the face of mass death, I think the French would do it. And the Belgians might simply agree
I do hope not. Every time the French invade Belgium they burn my cousin’s castle to the ground. And we’ve just had it refurbished!
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
I can see it happening with armed police, forcing the Belgians to cough up. Yes
Picture it: 2500 French people are dying every day, the health system is collapsing (and maybe similar things are happening in Belgium itself, Germany, Italy, Poland)
At that point the choice is: save French lives or save British lives, we can't do both. Sending the vaccines to the UK will be morally impossible for the EU, no matter how strong the UK's "legal right" to the jabs, no matter how superior our contract.
It will cause international uproar, it will start a vaccine war, but in the face of mass death, I think the French would do it. And the Belgians might simply agree
I do hope not. Every time the French invade Belgium they burn my cousin’s castle to the ground. And we’ve just had it refurbished!
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
I can see it happening with armed police, forcing the Belgians to cough up. Yes
Picture it: 2500 French people are dying every day, the health system is collapsing (and maybe similar things are happening in Belgium itself, Germany, Italy, Poland)
At that point the choice is: save French lives or save British lives, we can't do both. Sending the vaccines to the UK will be morally impossible for the EU, no matter how strong the UK's "legal right" to the jabs, no matter how superior our contract.
It will cause international uproar, it will start a vaccine war, but in the face of mass death, I think the French would do it. And the Belgians might simply agree
I do hope not. Every time the French invade Belgium they burn my cousin’s castle to the ground. And we’ve just had it refurbished!
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
Looks like France is about 3-4 weeks from peak? It won't be as bad as ours, because they do have vaccines (if not enough), but it will be a rough few weeks for them
The problem is that they haven't got close to vaccinating the vulnerable groups.
Really? Who the hell have they been vaxxing then?!
They've used the vast majority of their AZ on younger people.
Idiotique!
I was saying this a little while back - the way the cases was creeping up reminded me of the UK just before our latest wave.
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
Trouble is, if it gets that bad, I can see them seizing all our vials, including Pfizer, in blind panic
Who's doing the seizing though? The French would have to invade Belgium first.
I can see it happening with armed police, forcing the Belgians to cough up. Yes
Picture it: 2500 French people are dying every day, the health system is collapsing (and maybe similar things are happening in Belgium itself, Germany, Italy, Poland)
At that point the choice is: save French lives or save British lives, we can't do both. Sending the vaccines to the UK will be morally impossible for the EU, no matter how strong the UK's "legal right" to the jabs, no matter how superior our contract.
It will cause international uproar, it will start a vaccine war, but in the face of mass death, I think the French would do it. And the Belgians might simply agree
I do hope not. Every time the French invade Belgium they burn my cousin’s castle to the ground. And we’ve just had it refurbished!
Either you feel very strongly about this, or the second one should have had ‘German’ substituted for ‘French’ to be even handed.
Comments
I hope that doesn't happen, and I have a certain degree of confidence that it won't, but I can envisage that it might. This is why I won't believe unlocking will happen according to plan until it actually does.
Drives them absolutely MAD.
The hatred many women feel for considerably younger women is quite startling
Not sure where the other deaths were (care homes?)
"Harder to curb"
So lets cancel the lockdown.....
Most of Europe have given a dose to less than 10% of their population, including France, and there are a lot of strategies not driven by clinical risk. To be fair, this is probably 12-13% of adults.
That is, 87-88% of adults minus people with significant resistance through having had COVID will be vulnerable to the new variant.
Plus those who have had the vaccinations in the last two weeks or so. Which puts it back to about 90%.
And much of that is already baked in, as it was here before Christmas.
Why do you think Macaroon and the other biscuits are jumping up and down about AZN?
They've polled 5,265 voters in 83 northern English constituencies between March 18 and 21 (which works out at barely 60 voters per constituency) and then retrofitted it into their demographic model, and applied that to Hartlepool.
Remember: MRPs are pretty accurate for General Elections nationally because they're done about one week to two weeks out from when they are held and they're testing imminent votes by demographics. And even then it gets some individual seats wrong: the final MRP in Dec 2019 was out by 30 seats.
So, the error in Hartlepool could be huge. The Tories could be on 40% and Labour on 30%, or Labour could be storming it on 40% with the Tories on 30% - we just don't know. The Tories haven't picked a candidate yet, Labour have, the writ has only just been moved, campaigning hasn't really started yet, the eyes of the media aren't yet on it, and we don't know what the zeitgeist will be like in May etc. etc.
So bet with care.
Exhibit A - Gavin Williamson.
Is somebody trying to help Rudy crawl out of whatever hole he's currently holed up in?
I have a very nasty feeling that we are about to see what would have happened here without the vaccinations coming in - the hardest lockdowns barely hold the new variants.
But if cases continue to rise, does this matter? After all, 99% of Covid deaths have been in the groups now vaccinated.
The link between infections and serious illness or death has been "severely weakened", says diseases expert Prof Mark Woolhouse, of Edinburgh University.
But if infection levels rise high enough the virus "will find those" who are unvaccinated and those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked, he says.
While the vaccines are good - they significantly reduce the risk of falling ill and for those who do develop symptoms there is a strong likelihood it will be a fairly mild cough, fever or short period of breathlessness - they are not 100% perfect.
So Prof Woolhouse warns there could still be significant numbers of deaths, even if the threat to the NHS is much reduced.
What nobody can be sure of is just how quickly and by how much infection levels could rise in the coming months.
The natural R rate - how many people the average person who is infected passes the virus on to - was between three and four for this coronavirus, but with the new more contagious variant dominant, it could now be around five, some believe.
Dr Duncan Robertson, a disease modeller at Loughborough University, believes we are in "essentially a new epidemic". "This is the first time we are lifting restrictions with the new variant - it could take off and those areas with the lowest vaccination rates will be vulnerable."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56529712
This is my concern. Someone may invent a model that suggests the disease will seek and destroy the unprotected, generate a large scary number for additional deaths, and the Government could panic. Hopefully it wouldn't, but it might.
Alot of apparently normal people seemed to become dribbling fuckwits when they associated with Trump.
Does Trump enable the inner fuckwit? Is he a career of a disease that causes the IQ to drop 50 points?
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1375430735532847104?s=19
Picture it: 2500 French people are dying every day, the health system is collapsing (and maybe similar things are happening in Belgium itself, Germany, Italy, Poland)
At that point the choice is: save French lives or save British lives, we can't do both. Sending the vaccines to the UK will be morally impossible for the EU, no matter how strong the UK's "legal right" to the jabs, no matter how superior our contract.
It will cause international uproar, it will start a vaccine war, but in the face of mass death, I think the French would do it. And the Belgians might simply agree
John Donne
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1375508534557691904?s=19
It is 83 selected* Northern seats. Of these, Labour will gain 15 from the Tories.
* Not sure at all how they were selected. I would have to assume representative.
85-90% of adults vulnerable, relatively not much lockdown, new variant
Comparison is that our Groups 1-4 done by 15 February were about 28% of adults.
The Grim Reaper cometh.
I'd say they will be over a 1000 deaths a day for getting on for a month, but that is just a gut feel.
(Third to say it!)
His model was Tom Dewey, another over-rated headline-grabber who leveraged his position as young-turk New York prosecutor, to the governor's office and two nominations for POTUS.
Rudy lacked Dewey's gravitas. AND the guts to take on Hillary Clinton in 2000 for US Senate. Then thought he could ease his sorry ass into the White House; instead got it handed to him by the voters.
Then, clearly in desperate need for self-gratification AND boatloads of money, he glommed onto Trumpsky.
Pure scumbag ALL the way.
Interesting move, and would make for a potentially wild Holyrood post election if Salmondo makes yet another comeback.
But it is just extraordinary that we are talking about having to use the RAF to fly in vaccines we have paid for because the EU are trying to steal them.
If you’d told me that was likely twelve months ago I’d have assumed you were either drunk as a certain Commission President or a pseudonym for Nigel Farage.
But at the same time I have the nagging thought that Salmond has been written off more often than Max Verstappen’s F1 car and yet somehow has always found a way to succeed.
Not only is it Sir Graham Brady, but it is a Blue Wall seat.
Altrincham has been Tory since 1923!
We got overtook by Bosnia
Bulgaria and Italy, on present trends, might do the same, possibly Slovakia and Macedonia
Putting us well out of the top ten, unless we have our own new wave
The former president summoned four candidates for the state's open Senate seat in a session that resembled the boardroom scenes on "The Apprentice."
It was a scene right out of "The Apprentice."
Donald Trump was headlining a fundraiser on Wednesday night at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Fla. But before the dinner began, the former president had some business to take care of: He summoned four Republican Senate candidates vying for Ohio’s open Senate seat for a backroom meeting.
The contenders — former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, former state GOP Chair Jane Timken, technology company executive Bernie Moreno and investment banker Mike Gibbons — had flown down to attend the fundraiser to benefit a Trump-endorsed Ohio candidate looking to oust one of the 10 House Republicans who backed his impeachment. As the candidates mingled during a pre-dinner cocktail reception, one of the president's aides signaled to them that Trump wanted to huddle with them in a room just off the lobby.
What ensued was a 15-minute backroom backbiting session reminiscent of Trump’s reality TV show. Mandel said he was “crushing” Timken in polling. Timken touted her support on the ground thanks to her time as state party chair. Gibbons mentioned how he’d helped Trump’s campaign financially. Moreno noted that his daughter had worked on Trump’s 2020 campaign.
The scene illustrated what has become a central dynamic in the nascent 2022 race. In virtually every Republican primary, candidates are jockeying, auditioning and fighting for the former president’s backing. Trump has received overtures from a multitude of candidates desperate for his endorsement, something that top Republicans say gives him all-encompassing power to make-or-break the outcome of primaries.
And the former president, as was so often the case during his presidency, has seemed to relish pitting people against one another.
One person familiar with what transpired in Wednesday evening’s huddle described it as “Hunger Games,” an awkward showdown that none of them were expecting. Making matters even more uncomfortable, this person said, was that the rival candidates sat at a circular table, making it so that each had to face the others. . . .
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/25/trump-ohio-candidates-478059
Where did it all go so terribly wrong?
But if it gets that bad and their people want the jabs, if we're still doing all right I doubt if we'd grudge them.
In a nutshell
And that is very much their citizens’ fault.
The Plant at Marburg is an important one.
Without them their immunity wanes and we have to restart the whole damn vax programme
I fear that this is what the French minister is referring to when he says we won't get our second doses. We won't get them, because the French/EU will steal them
And would he really be in a position to back any alternative party of government - which remember, would have to include the Tories merely to make an executive viable - to make such a threat realistic, or would Sturgeon simply dare him to do it and leave him looking toothless?
If he does go anywhere, more likely he’s humiliated by having to back Sturgeon.
Undercounted cases?
Well if I was on Millionaire and asked the audience and 100% said John Donne, I'd go with it even for big money.
"I'll trust the audience, Chris. They look quite bright. John Donne."
"You sure? You did think it was Alex Ferguson or Winston Churchill."
"Nope. John Donne. Final answer."
That noise ...
"Kinabalu. Member of the Modern Metro Left - you've just won half a million pounds!"
1
No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.
None of them.
Whitty and Vallance have explicitly said that they expect an increase in cases from schools going back, and that it doesn't overly concern them and is not a reason to halt the plan.
We're down to 44.3% of the adult population who haven't had a vaccine dose. The vaccine is ending this. Soon it will be over.