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The Hartlepool by-election is a must win for both Johnson and Starmer – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941

    I have already set out why I believe the Tories can take the seat. That they have already taken the council thanks to the collapse of Labour shows the direction of travel in the town. Yes I know that the council is a Tory / Independents coalition. Thats what happens with "independents" on Teesside - they break apart the former Labour vote and back the Tories because eugh Labour.

    Candidate selection will be crucial. If the Tories can find a local pick that would help. Labour aren't - its either a Paul Williams fix or la Pidcock gets onto the shortlist thanks to hard left elements on the NEC. Either way neither is local. And local is very much an issue in Hartlepool looking at the warring factions of Hartlepool Independent councillors they now have.

    I do wonder if a Paul Williams parachuting might play to Labour's favour though. OK so it loses them any chance of winning the PCC, but he is a well respected doctor. Play the health card - "I've been battling to save people from Covid and the Tories are scared of a public enquiry because they know what it will find". Might work. The entire campaign will be posted leaflets written elsewhere because have I mentioned that Hartlepool CLP is bonkers?

    Ultimately it comes down to this. Its Super Thursday so turnout will be high. Most people will vote Tory for Mayor. Many of them will vote for their local flavour of anti-Labour for council. If the Labour candidate for MP is Paul Williams they will vote for the Tory for PCC. To then "loyally" vote Labour for MP is a stretch - once people start voting against, they keep voting against. And it is "AGAINST" Labour and not "FOR" any other candidate. Labour has become toxic on Teesside in a way that I can scarcely believe.

    That all makes sense - except for one thing: turnout is going to be very low, even lower than it would usually be for local council elections. Covid will see to that.

    My council sent everyone a postal voting application a few weeks ago. I'd be surprised if most councils didn't do likewise. In fact I'm surprised the Government didn't make these elections postal-only.
    Wasn't there a something from the electoral commission?? advising against an all-postal May elections - they were worried about the system breaking down or something?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486
    You know Hartlepool elected a monkey right?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. Eagles, aye. Sounds like, if only we taxed everyone enough then free goodies could be flung by the state and everyone would be prosperous.

    Economic reality would have other ideas.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488
    edited March 2021
    Their logo has a dog in it and everyone loves dogs. I'm sold.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977
    Their colours are Vatican Yellow and Tyrian Purple like AS Roma. Add in the whippet in the logo and you've got electoral semtex.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I have placed my bets.

    So you're the one backing The Northern Independence Party?

    Heh just realised I am going to call them the NIPs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486

    *raises an eyebrow*

    Northern Independence?

    New one to me.

    I've mentioned them on here before.

    WHAT WE'RE FIGHTING FOR

    To build a better, fairer and freer North for all.
    To campaign for a referendum on the independence of the North, to be decided by the people of the North.
    A green industrial rebirth.

    WHO WE ARE

    The Northern Independence Party is a democratic socialist party, who are committed to uplifting the voices of our members. We were founded in 2020 to combat the injustice of the north/south divide. We stand opposed to all forms of ideology based on hatred and bigotry.

    https://www.freethenorth.co.uk/

    I don't think Democratic Socialism appeals to either of us nor does Northern Independence.
    So this is another branch of United Socialist Unite Alliance?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636



    My council sent everyone a postal voting application a few weeks ago. I'd be surprised if most councils didn't do likewise. In fact I'm surprised the Government didn't make these elections postal-only.

    I wouldn't overestimate the impact. We did exactly that in Waverley. It's increased takeup by a modest 5%, from 20% to 25%. I'm including "Wouldn't you luke a postal vote?@ in phone canvassing. Everyone says No, I'm fine." But we do have a very low Covid rate - around 3 persons per ward.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,477
    Re McKinsey and management consultants. Wasn't New Labour criticised for being too reliant on PWC (Price Waterhouse Coopers) not just for cash but for policy development?
  • *raises an eyebrow*

    Northern Independence?

    New one to me.

    I've mentioned them on here before.

    WHAT WE'RE FIGHTING FOR

    To build a better, fairer and freer North for all.
    To campaign for a referendum on the independence of the North, to be decided by the people of the North.
    A green industrial rebirth.

    WHO WE ARE

    The Northern Independence Party is a democratic socialist party, who are committed to uplifting the voices of our members. We were founded in 2020 to combat the injustice of the north/south divide. We stand opposed to all forms of ideology based on hatred and bigotry.

    https://www.freethenorth.co.uk/

    I don't think Democratic Socialism appeals to either of us nor does Northern Independence.
    So this is another branch of United Socialist Unite Alliance?
    IIRC they originally started off as the Yorkshire/Northern Devolution party then went full extreme.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486

    *raises an eyebrow*

    Northern Independence?

    New one to me.

    I've mentioned them on here before.

    WHAT WE'RE FIGHTING FOR

    To build a better, fairer and freer North for all.
    To campaign for a referendum on the independence of the North, to be decided by the people of the North.
    A green industrial rebirth.

    WHO WE ARE

    The Northern Independence Party is a democratic socialist party, who are committed to uplifting the voices of our members. We were founded in 2020 to combat the injustice of the north/south divide. We stand opposed to all forms of ideology based on hatred and bigotry.

    https://www.freethenorth.co.uk/

    I don't think Democratic Socialism appeals to either of us nor does Northern Independence.
    So this is another branch of United Socialist Unite Alliance?
    IIRC they originally started off as the Yorkshire/Northern Devolution party then went full extreme.
    another case of entryism then?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,959
    DavidL said:

    Hooray! The age threshold has been dropped to 50, so I've been able to book my vaccination appointments.

    First shot on Monday then an 11 week gap.

    It has given me a tingle inside.

    59 and still waiting for Scotland's NHS to send me an appointment. Nothing as customer friendly as a booking service up here.

    The good news is that MrsL got out of hospital last night and should be fit for hers on Thursday. She was the only person in her bay wearing a mask. She even slept in it. There was no ventilation. It was also a mixed bay which I thought had been stopped. At least one of the men was suffering early dementia and wandered about unimpeded. On this experience it is not too hard to see why 2/3rds of all Scottish infections have taken place in hospital. I am so glad I was able to get her home.
    That sounds dreadful. Totally understand why you are very pleased that you've got her out of there.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,340

    Hooray! The age threshold has been dropped to 50, so I've been able to book my vaccination appointments.

    First shot on Monday then an 11 week gap.

    It has given me a tingle inside.

    That means under 50s will commence in around 10-14 days. I really am beginning to get the feeling that the government wants everyone done well before the end of May and all second doses done in time for the summer.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977
    Has him out of Lewis stated his intention yet?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. Eagles, oh, so NIP is something the Yorkshire devolutionary set have evolved into?

    I always knew they were daft.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,717
    edited March 2021
    Off-topic ish.

    I see that the London Mayoral elections are going to FPTP.

    Why?

    (Picked up from some euro-types declaring end-of-democracy and full on Orban-ism in the UK, but apparently in the Tory manifesto.)

    (Morning all)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    https://v.cent.co/tweet/1371549960030842893 bidding at $1 million for a tweet
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,536
    Shadsy must be delighted with all those NIP bets.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,175
    MattW said:

    Off-topic ish.

    I see that the London Mayoral election is going to FPTP.

    Why?

    (Morning all)

    Interestingly, the London Assembly elections aren't. Presumably, it's because the Tories would not win any seats.

  • The real question as to their success is:
    Do they have the "ground game" to deliver 9 leaflets to every household in Hartlepool in a month, until people are sick of their leaflets?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,475
    The NIP seems to attract a lot of anime fans and people with anthropomorphic animals as their avatars on Twitter, but I'm not sure their brand of Corbynite ultra-woke Remain politics is a winner in Hartlepool.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488
    Pulpstar said:

    https://v.cent.co/tweet/1371549960030842893 bidding at $1 million for a tweet

    I'm confused. Are you buying the rights to the song as a NFT, a copy of the song as a NFT, or a copy of the tweet as a NFT?

    Hilarious.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488
    Freggles said:

    The NIP seems to attract a lot of anime fans and people with anthropomorphic animals as their avatars on Twitter, but I'm not sure their brand of Corbynite ultra-woke Remain politics is a winner in Hartlepool.

    Hartlepool loves furries. Probably.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486

    The real question as to their success is:
    Do they have the "ground game" to deliver 9 leaflets to every household in Hartlepool in a month, until people are sick of their leaflets?
    Is anyone allowed to delivery leaflets at the moment?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Pulpstar said:

    https://v.cent.co/tweet/1371549960030842893 bidding at $1 million for a tweet

    I'm confused. Are you buying the rights to the song as a NFT, a copy of the song as a NFT, or a copy of the tweet as a NFT?

    Hilarious.
    Dunno, if I had a million $ I wouldn't be spending it on this.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488

    The real question as to their success is:
    Do they have the "ground game" to deliver 9 leaflets to every household in Hartlepool in a month, until people are sick of their leaflets?
    Is anyone allowed to delivery leaflets at the moment?
    I am still getting plenty of leaflets through the door about window cleaning and fence painting and what not. It all goes in the recycling bin.
  • MattW said:

    Off-topic ish.

    I see that the London Mayoral elections are going to FPTP.

    Why?

    (Picked up from some euro-types declaring end-of-democracy and full on Orban-ism in the UK, but apparently in the Tory manifesto.)

    (Morning all)

    Apparently the 2011 AV referendum was a rejection of all non FPTP voting systems.

    Which leads to the question are the Tory party going to change their leadership election rules as Tory leaders are chosen under a form of quasi-AV.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,333
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://v.cent.co/tweet/1371549960030842893 bidding at $1 million for a tweet

    I'm confused. Are you buying the rights to the song as a NFT, a copy of the song as a NFT, or a copy of the tweet as a NFT?

    Hilarious.
    Dunno, if I had a million $ I wouldn't be spending it on this.
    There's always been folk with more money than sense.
  • Freggles said:

    The NIP seems to attract a lot of anime fans and people with anthropomorphic animals as their avatars on Twitter, but I'm not sure their brand of Corbynite ultra-woke Remain politics is a winner in Hartlepool.

    Hartlepool loves furries. Probably.
    Well you can argue H'Angus The Monkey is a furry.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,654
    I'm reserving judgement on Hartlepool until Roger has spoken.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,717
    Also this:

    Our ambition is for full devolution
    across England, building on the
    successful devolution of powers to
    city region mayors, Police and Crime
    Commissioners and others, so that
    every part of our country has the
    power to shape its own destiny. We will
    publish an English Devolution White
    Paper setting out our plans next year


    Hmmm.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488
    MattW said:

    Also this:

    Our ambition is for full devolution
    across England, building on the
    successful devolution of powers to
    city region mayors, Police and Crime
    Commissioners and others, so that
    every part of our country has the
    power to shape its own destiny. We will
    publish an English Devolution White
    Paper setting out our plans next year


    Hmmm.

    Indeed, that text wrapping is criminal.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,046
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Hooray! The age threshold has been dropped to 50, so I've been able to book my vaccination appointments.

    First shot on Monday then an 11 week gap.

    It has given me a tingle inside.

    59 and still waiting for Scotland's NHS to send me an appointment. Nothing as customer friendly as a booking service up here.

    The good news is that MrsL got out of hospital last night and should be fit for hers on Thursday. She was the only person in her bay wearing a mask. She even slept in it. There was no ventilation. It was also a mixed bay which I thought had been stopped. At least one of the men was suffering early dementia and wandered about unimpeded. On this experience it is not too hard to see why 2/3rds of all Scottish infections have taken place in hospital. I am so glad I was able to get her home.
    Simply not good enough. Hopefully you and Mrs L will be fit and antibody producing in a few weeks.
    My biggest concern coming out of the Pandemic is that it has become impossible to criticise the NHS. It's inefficient and ineffective, often poorly run and seemingly immune to questioning. The death rate from Covid is a concern when we compare the NHS to other large countries in Europe. By the way, what have GPs been doing for the last year? So many questions need to be asked but we have turned the NHS into a sacred cow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,337
    edited March 2021
    Right, here's something to amuse you all.

    In about 15 minutes I will be partaking in my employer's bi-annual sexual harassment awareness training course.

    For most of today I have to watch and read things and say if that counts as sexual harassment and why.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488
    Fenman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Hooray! The age threshold has been dropped to 50, so I've been able to book my vaccination appointments.

    First shot on Monday then an 11 week gap.

    It has given me a tingle inside.

    59 and still waiting for Scotland's NHS to send me an appointment. Nothing as customer friendly as a booking service up here.

    The good news is that MrsL got out of hospital last night and should be fit for hers on Thursday. She was the only person in her bay wearing a mask. She even slept in it. There was no ventilation. It was also a mixed bay which I thought had been stopped. At least one of the men was suffering early dementia and wandered about unimpeded. On this experience it is not too hard to see why 2/3rds of all Scottish infections have taken place in hospital. I am so glad I was able to get her home.
    Simply not good enough. Hopefully you and Mrs L will be fit and antibody producing in a few weeks.
    My biggest concern coming out of the Pandemic is that it has become impossible to criticise the NHS. It's inefficient and ineffective, often poorly run and seemingly immune to questioning. The death rate from Covid is a concern when we compare the NHS to other large countries in Europe. By the way, what have GPs been doing for the last year? So many questions need to be asked but we have turned the NHS into a sacred cow.
    GPs are private so we can criticise them all we want without offending the religion.

    Down with GPs!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,362
    Perfectly happy to donate my piss to the NIP if boiling it helps in any way.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488

    Right, here's something to amuse you all.

    In about 15 minutes I will be partaking in my employer's bi-annual sexual harassment awareness training course.

    For most of today I have to watch and read things and say if that counts as sexual harassment and why.

    Bisexuals get sexual harassment awareness training but others don't? Sounds like a serious case of discrimination. :p
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488
    Cookie said:

    Perfectly happy to donate my piss to the NIP if boiling it helps in any way.

    They're only interested in your piss if you're the establishment.
  • Right, here's something to amuse you all.

    In about 15 minutes I will be partaking in my employer's bi-annual sexual harassment awareness training course.

    For most of today I have to watch and read things and say if that counts as sexual harassment and why.

    Bisexuals get sexual harassment awareness training but others don't? Sounds like a serious case of discrimination. :p
    I'm not allowed to crack gags like that anymore.

    Nor my answer to

    Q: Do you have any issues with a woman in a position of authority?

    Me: No, I've never had a problem with a woman in any position.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Pulpstar said:

    https://v.cent.co/tweet/1371549960030842893 bidding at $1 million for a tweet

    I'm confused. Are you buying the rights to the song as a NFT, a copy of the song as a NFT, or a copy of the tweet as a NFT?

    Hilarious.
    Further, Elon could retweet the tweet and then sell it as another NFT.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://v.cent.co/tweet/1371549960030842893 bidding at $1 million for a tweet

    I'm confused. Are you buying the rights to the song as a NFT, a copy of the song as a NFT, or a copy of the tweet as a NFT?

    Hilarious.
    Further, Elon could retweet the tweet and then sell it as another NFT.
    You can see why he's so rich.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,748
    Early contender for dumbassery of the day.

    https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1372091548012326915?s=21
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,477
    Trump tells Republican supporters to get vaccinated

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56424614
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,154

    Everyone criticises Labour for taking their "heartlands" for granted however the same could very well happen to the Conservatives. All this attention on the "red wall" could very well lead, in the long run, to traditional Conservative seats thinking that the Party is now for urban town dwellers and not for them. Especially if Brexit ends up being a negative for agriculture etc.

    Not something likely to happen in the near future but it's certainly a possibility in the long run. It's difficult juggling multiple competing priorities.

    Absolutely. The LibDems will come back...
    Because they forgot their coat on the way out?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,033

    The real question as to their success is:
    Do they have the "ground game" to deliver 9 leaflets to every household in Hartlepool in a month, until people are sick of their leaflets?
    Is anyone allowed to delivery leaflets at the moment?
    I've had two so far, one from the Tories and one from the Lib Dems.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941

    Fenman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Hooray! The age threshold has been dropped to 50, so I've been able to book my vaccination appointments.

    First shot on Monday then an 11 week gap.

    It has given me a tingle inside.

    59 and still waiting for Scotland's NHS to send me an appointment. Nothing as customer friendly as a booking service up here.

    The good news is that MrsL got out of hospital last night and should be fit for hers on Thursday. She was the only person in her bay wearing a mask. She even slept in it. There was no ventilation. It was also a mixed bay which I thought had been stopped. At least one of the men was suffering early dementia and wandered about unimpeded. On this experience it is not too hard to see why 2/3rds of all Scottish infections have taken place in hospital. I am so glad I was able to get her home.
    Simply not good enough. Hopefully you and Mrs L will be fit and antibody producing in a few weeks.
    My biggest concern coming out of the Pandemic is that it has become impossible to criticise the NHS. It's inefficient and ineffective, often poorly run and seemingly immune to questioning. The death rate from Covid is a concern when we compare the NHS to other large countries in Europe. By the way, what have GPs been doing for the last year? So many questions need to be asked but we have turned the NHS into a sacred cow.
    GPs are private so we can criticise them all we want without offending the religion.

    Down with GPs!
    GPs are like medieval "clerics".

    Clerics often weren't ensured monks in a robe - they would often dress and behave like the rest of the population.

    Just with legal immunity (in effect).

    GPs have access to Benefit Of The NHS.....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347

    Early contender for dumbassery of the day.

    https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1372091548012326915?s=21

    The inevitable enquiry (at least I hope it is inevitable) will highlight some very poor decision making across a lot of people. Did I see that no-one from SAGE even thought about closing the borders? Who is responsible then for that, if the enquiry says that many many lives would have been saved? No doubt the government made many, huge mistakes, but the context is key. Novel disease, only known about for the last 15 months. No-one really new the best approach - when everything is considered. This is not just 'keeping covid out' even if that were possible in the UK. Its if the costs in other areas. If keeping covid out crashes your economy into recession for 10 years, how many die as a result? Hindsight suggests a faster lockdown and shutting foreign travel would have saved lives and probably reduced economic damage, but that is hindsight.

    I keep going back to the fact that all the other western european countries are in the same shit, maybe currently standing in different levels of it. What I don't see is a better example that if we had only followed things would have been vastly better. Germany looked like it was, back last year. Not so much now.

    I know a lot of you will disagree, and that is to be expected. I'd only ask that those judging consider the circumstances, not just the hindsight view.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636

    isam said:

    Trying to my best to correct Labour supporters deceit (or ignorance if we are being kind)

    https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1371920028682043392?s=21

    https://twitter.com/asfarasdelgados/status/1372093441543442433?s=21

    She was never a cabinet minister, she got as far as Sol Gen, which isn't a cabinet job.

    I mean if you're going to chastise others for deceit or ignorance.....

    Edit - Upon checking, she was retained as Victims' Commissioner by Boris Johnson, so it might be fair to say this government.

    I mean he could have replaced her.
    Yes, there are limits to how far Johnson can pretend that May's Government was not the current Tory government. If you move into a house and decide to keep the garden unchanged, then it's reasonable to suggest that you're responsible for any overhanging trees - saying "Oh, the previous owners left them there" won't wash. Johnson was fine with her until she was critical. (Declaration of interest - I know her slightly.)

    On the substantive issue, it's certainly true that rape prosecution is rare. The difficulty in obtaining evidence beyond reasonable doubt is obvious in a private relationship, but people who've worked in the field do think that the CPS is defeatist on the issue, and encouraged by a lack of government interest up to now. Perhaps that will change.



  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,748
    Dura_Ace said:

    OT... I was trying to parse Johnson's '24 frigates by 2030' comment in the HoC but couldn't make the numbers add up.

    From 2023 to 2030 the RN will retire one T23 per year leaving five remaining in 2030. If absolutely nothing goes wrong with with both the T26 and T31 programs and they run 100% to schedule then they will add two ships per year from 2027 to 2030 for a a total of eight.

    So the absolute maximum number of frigates the RN could have in 2030 is thirteen, ie the same as today.

    Then I realised that I was completely wasting my time as this was just another straightforward Johnson lie.

    You’ll know when they become known as Boris Boats* that there won’t be the slightest chance of them coming to pass.

    *yep, a horrible solecism I know but when did that ever stop the BJ pr juggernaut.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    RIP Yaphet Kotto.

    I hadn't realised he turned down the role of Jean Luc Picard.
    That could have been awesome.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488

    isam said:

    Trying to my best to correct Labour supporters deceit (or ignorance if we are being kind)

    https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1371920028682043392?s=21

    https://twitter.com/asfarasdelgados/status/1372093441543442433?s=21

    She was never a cabinet minister, she got as far as Sol Gen, which isn't a cabinet job.

    I mean if you're going to chastise others for deceit or ignorance.....

    Edit - Upon checking, she was retained as Victims' Commissioner by Boris Johnson, so it might be fair to say this government.

    I mean he could have replaced her.
    Yes, there are limits to how far Johnson can pretend that May's Government was not the current Tory government. If you move into a house and decide to keep the garden unchanged, then it's reasonable to suggest that you're responsible for any overhanging trees - saying "Oh, the previous owners left them there" won't wash. Johnson was fine with her until she was critical. (Declaration of interest - I know her slightly.)

    On the substantive issue, it's certainly true that rape prosecution is rare. The difficulty in obtaining evidence beyond reasonable doubt is obvious in a private relationship, but people who've worked in the field do think that the CPS is defeatist on the issue, and encouraged by a lack of government interest up to now. Perhaps that will change.

    This seems to be another symptom of the underfunding of the justice system and the police. If there was more money available then the CPS could be much less selective in who they prosecute and the police would have more resources to investigate.
  • Which would be worse for Labour - a Tory win, or a Piddock win?

    Pidcock will not be the candidate. The NEC will decide the shortlist. She will not be on it. That said, if I were Starmer, I could see a lot of benefit in having her stand. If she wins, she has won under his leadership when she lost under Corbyn's; if she loses, it will be another repudiation of the far-left. It's a kind of win-win. However, it's not going to happen.

    If they follow nornmal practice the Regional Director in conjunction with the Regional Board will shortlist the candidate. The NEC are there in that it is their remit to select, but this has been delegated to region.

    If Region select the candidate it will be Paul Williams. I can't wait to hear how they justify that considering he is currently the PCC candidate. If the NEC do get involved there is hope for Pillock. I am told that the preference is that they present a veneer of democracy - an emergency virtual selection hustings for Hartlepool members to be held on Saturday - but that the only candidate on the shortlist will be Paul Williams.
  • https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1372112045559193603

    How quickly will this be posted I wonder?

    That's got to be an outlier
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    MaxPB said:

    Hooray! The age threshold has been dropped to 50, so I've been able to book my vaccination appointments.

    First shot on Monday then an 11 week gap.

    It has given me a tingle inside.

    That means under 50s will commence in around 10-14 days. I really am beginning to get the feeling that the government wants everyone done well before the end of May and all second doses done in time for the summer.
    PHE doesn’t break down the age buckets below I think 65. Is there a way of figuring out how many under 50s have already been jabbed? It feels like every third person I speak to now below 50 has either already had the first dose or been booked for one.
  • It's worth nothing that apart from a couple of polls, Labour is still far and away ahead of the 2019 GE result, which is progress in of itself. Not enough progress but progress nonetheless.

    That 40% is achievable, Corbyn did it. But I am not sure about getting over that number.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1372112045559193603

    How quickly will this be posted I wonder?

    That's got to be an outlier

    ..



  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135
    To say that a government 'must win' an opposition constituency is ridiculous.

    Whether that is caused by Mike's bias or lack of knowledge I don't know.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,153
    @Casino_Royale

    Just wanted to acknowledge our bet.

    I don't think any further rules are required other than some cut off (void obviously not a loser) if the by-election is not held. I suggest 1 August 2021.

    Other than that I don't contemplate any scenario that would require clarification.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    I don't see how this is anywhere near a must-win for Johnson. It's certainly very winnable for him, and would be a great prize. But let's say a worst-case scenario occurs and Labour holds with an increased majority: Would it really damage Johnson's position? I don't think so.
  • Taz said:

    eek said:

    I have already set out why I believe the Tories can take the seat. That they have already taken the council thanks to the collapse of Labour shows the direction of travel in the town. Yes I know that the council is a Tory / Independents coalition. Thats what happens with "independents" on Teesside - they break apart the former Labour vote and back the Tories because eugh Labour.

    Candidate selection will be crucial. If the Tories can find a local pick that would help. Labour aren't - its either a Paul Williams fix or la Pidcock gets onto the shortlist thanks to hard left elements on the NEC. Either way neither is local. And local is very much an issue in Hartlepool looking at the warring factions of Hartlepool Independent councillors they now have.

    I do wonder if a Paul Williams parachuting might play to Labour's favour though. OK so it loses them any chance of winning the PCC, but he is a well respected doctor. Play the health card - "I've been battling to save people from Covid and the Tories are scared of a public enquiry because they know what it will find". Might work. The entire campaign will be posted leaflets written elsewhere because have I mentioned that Hartlepool CLP is bonkers?

    Ultimately it comes down to this. Its Super Thursday so turnout will be high. Most people will vote Tory for Mayor. Many of them will vote for their local flavour of anti-Labour for council. If the Labour candidate for MP is Paul Williams they will vote for the Tory for PCC. To then "loyally" vote Labour for MP is a stretch - once people start voting against, they keep voting against. And it is "AGAINST" Labour and not "FOR" any other candidate. Labour has become toxic on Teesside in a way that I can scarcely believe.

    That all makes sense - except for one thing: turnout is going to be very low, even lower than it would usually be for local council elections. Covid will see to that.

    In which case even less chance of Labour winning. Those going out to vote will be voting for their none Labour councilor and a Tory mayor.

    I agree - and they will tend to be older voters, too, which will only reinforce Labour's difficulties. It's going to be a very difficult night for Starmer. As ever, the Midlands will be where it is worse.



    Does the labour candidate for Mayor really stand little chance ?

    She seems quite hopeless but there is talk that local party bigwigs openly mock her and that makes me feel a little sorry for her.

    I saw something she did on Twitter with Jet from Gladiators (it wasn’t a millennium barn dance in Yeovil aerodrome) which just seemed bizarre.
    Jessie Joe Jacobs hasn't a prayer. She is largely shunned by local activists who have seen right through her - she has positioned herself as both the Progress candidate and the Momentum candidate. The latter saw her railroaded through selection with shenanigans from Unite to remove all opposition to her.

    Now that she is the candidate her campaign is Look at Me! I am Jessie Joe Jacobs! You should vote for me because I am a Woman! Have seen a now pulped newspaper she was to put out where the front page was a huge photo of her with the headline "Will this be Britain's First Female Metro Mayor?" complete with sodding question mark on the end. The rest of it was endless photos of JJJJJ in almost identical poses in front of various landmarks and buildings complete with a wall of text.

    In comparison, Tory Ben Houchen ran on two items - protect the Parmo, and save the Airport. He proceeded to nationalise Teesside Airport and has announced various exciting new flights most of which haven't yet flown and none of which will last as there is no business case for flights from Teesside which is why the airport failed in the first place.

    He has also stuck himself into all kinds of projects that his role doesn't have a remit for - an almost constant stream of good news stories for jobs and industry. For example his party shut down Redcar Steelworks, he is now leading a project to clear the site and put high tech industry in there with half the jobs.

    He will absolutely walk the election as he is one of very few politicians who overdelivers. His only pity is that Osborne imagined that the Tees Valley Mayor was the non-job it is and gave it a non-salary. His Spad gets £20k more than he does.
  • There is also a North East Party, represented on this very forum by a PBer!
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,831
    Quincel said:

    I don't see how this is anywhere near a must-win for Johnson. It's certainly very winnable for him, and would be a great prize. But let's say a worst-case scenario occurs and Labour holds with an increased majority: Would it really damage Johnson's position? I don't think so.

    It is the most absurd header claiming that this by-election is a must win for the Tories. They have been in Government for 11 years, Governments hardly ever make gains in by-elections.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941
    edited March 2021
    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hooray! The age threshold has been dropped to 50, so I've been able to book my vaccination appointments.

    First shot on Monday then an 11 week gap.

    It has given me a tingle inside.

    That means under 50s will commence in around 10-14 days. I really am beginning to get the feeling that the government wants everyone done well before the end of May and all second doses done in time for the summer.
    PHE doesn’t break down the age buckets below I think 65. Is there a way of figuring out how many under 50s have already been jabbed? It feels like every third person I speak to now below 50 has either already had the first dose or been booked for one.
    I noticed that the weekly summaries at

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/

    have added age "buckets" as the vaccinations move down the cohorts. Hopefully they will continue.

    I did a spreadsheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eiOMJVLijTAemsGJ6sYNC8jwzhLWPDs-/view?usp=sharing - from the last release showing the percentages by MSOA, using the NIMIS population estimates...

    EDIT : we should get the next weekly update tomorrow, I think
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,717
    They must be Americans or the BBC.

    "precarious" is an adjective. Tut.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,135

    Early contender for dumbassery of the day.

    https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1372091548012326915?s=21

    Total dumbassery from GMB.

    Apparently 'all the failures during the pandemic' do not include border control failures in the spring and then encouraging foreign holidays in the summer.

    It seems Susanna Reid would prefer the country to have been in permanent lockdown rather than have had trips to Dubai and South Africa restricted.

    And I wonder if Susanna Reid can point out when she was calling for UK manufacturing of PPE to be increased.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,035
    My views on Hartlepool:

    1. I have absolutely no idea who will win and nor, at this stage, does anybody else. I won't be betting. It may become clearer once all candidates are declared, but probably not.

    2. The ramifications, whether Labour holds or Tories gain, will be short-term and not worth getting too excited about. There's too much else going on at the moment for a by-election loss/gain to have longer-term traction. There will be no challenge to Starmer if Labour loses.
  • There will be no challenge to Starmer before he loses in 2024 (if he does), because there is nobody to challenge him and everyone in the party knows that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    I have already set out why I believe the Tories can take the seat. That they have already taken the council thanks to the collapse of Labour shows the direction of travel in the town. Yes I know that the council is a Tory / Independents coalition. Thats what happens with "independents" on Teesside - they break apart the former Labour vote and back the Tories because eugh Labour.

    Candidate selection will be crucial. If the Tories can find a local pick that would help. Labour aren't - its either a Paul Williams fix or la Pidcock gets onto the shortlist thanks to hard left elements on the NEC. Either way neither is local. And local is very much an issue in Hartlepool looking at the warring factions of Hartlepool Independent councillors they now have.

    I do wonder if a Paul Williams parachuting might play to Labour's favour though. OK so it loses them any chance of winning the PCC, but he is a well respected doctor. Play the health card - "I've been battling to save people from Covid and the Tories are scared of a public enquiry because they know what it will find". Might work. The entire campaign will be posted leaflets written elsewhere because have I mentioned that Hartlepool CLP is bonkers?

    Ultimately it comes down to this. Its Super Thursday so turnout will be high. Most people will vote Tory for Mayor. Many of them will vote for their local flavour of anti-Labour for council. If the Labour candidate for MP is Paul Williams they will vote for the Tory for PCC. To then "loyally" vote Labour for MP is a stretch - once people start voting against, they keep voting against. And it is "AGAINST" Labour and not "FOR" any other candidate. Labour has become toxic on Teesside in a way that I can scarcely believe.

    That all makes sense - except for one thing: turnout is going to be very low, even lower than it would usually be for local council elections. Covid will see to that.

    In which case even less chance of Labour winning. Those going out to vote will be voting for their none Labour councilor and a Tory mayor.

    I agree - and they will tend to be older voters, too, which will only reinforce Labour's difficulties. It's going to be a very difficult night for Starmer. As ever, the Midlands will be where it is worse.



    Does the labour candidate for Mayor really stand little chance ?

    She seems quite hopeless but there is talk that local party bigwigs openly mock her and that makes me feel a little sorry for her.

    I saw something she did on Twitter with Jet from Gladiators (it wasn’t a millennium barn dance in Yeovil aerodrome) which just seemed bizarre.
    Jessie Joe Jacobs hasn't a prayer. She is largely shunned by local activists who have seen right through her - she has positioned herself as both the Progress candidate and the Momentum candidate. The latter saw her railroaded through selection with shenanigans from Unite to remove all opposition to her.

    Now that she is the candidate her campaign is Look at Me! I am Jessie Joe Jacobs! You should vote for me because I am a Woman! Have seen a now pulped newspaper she was to put out where the front page was a huge photo of her with the headline "Will this be Britain's First Female Metro Mayor?" complete with sodding question mark on the end. The rest of it was endless photos of JJJJJ in almost identical poses in front of various landmarks and buildings complete with a wall of text.

    In comparison, Tory Ben Houchen ran on two items - protect the Parmo, and save the Airport. He proceeded to nationalise Teesside Airport and has announced various exciting new flights most of which haven't yet flown and none of which will last as there is no business case for flights from Teesside which is why the airport failed in the first place.

    He has also stuck himself into all kinds of projects that his role doesn't have a remit for - an almost constant stream of good news stories for jobs and industry. For example his party shut down Redcar Steelworks, he is now leading a project to clear the site and put high tech industry in there with half the jobs.

    He will absolutely walk the election as he is one of very few politicians who overdelivers. His only pity is that Osborne imagined that the Tees Valley Mayor was the non-job it is and gave it a non-salary. His Spad gets £20k more than he does.
    Sounds like you have a lot of respect for Houchen, especially for a Tory?

    I wonder whether he'll be a future contender for Parliament and the Cabinet then? He's only 34.
  • Matthew Goodwin won't post this poll as it's relatively good for Labour. Just watch
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,324
    Off topic but.. anyone in Scotland have a view about the David Davis intervention last night and the potential impact?

    I must admit, I’m a tad lost..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1372112045559193603

    How quickly will this be posted I wonder?

    That's got to be an outlier

    Big_G beat you to it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,340

    My views on Hartlepool:

    1. I have absolutely no idea who will win and nor, at this stage, does anybody else. I won't be betting. It may become clearer once all candidates are declared, but probably not.

    2. The ramifications, whether Labour holds or Tories gain, will be short-term and not worth getting too excited about. There's too much else going on at the moment for a by-election loss/gain to have longer-term traction. There will be no challenge to Starmer if Labour loses.

    Agreed. There is a tendency on PB and by political obsessives to overstate the importance of this stuff. I don't think it really makes a huge difference, Labour will keep Starmer until the election and then we'll see how that goes.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 976
    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hooray! The age threshold has been dropped to 50, so I've been able to book my vaccination appointments.

    First shot on Monday then an 11 week gap.

    It has given me a tingle inside.

    That means under 50s will commence in around 10-14 days. I really am beginning to get the feeling that the government wants everyone done well before the end of May and all second doses done in time for the summer.
    PHE doesn’t break down the age buckets below I think 65. Is there a way of figuring out how many under 50s have already been jabbed? It feels like every third person I speak to now below 50 has either already had the first dose or been booked for one.
    My local GP is saying that every over 50 on their books should have either been jabbed or be booked in & if you’ve been missed out to call them straightaway.

    So it certainly looks like all the most at-risk tranches have been or will have their first dose very soon.
  • https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1372112045559193603

    How quickly will this be posted I wonder?

    That's got to be an outlier

    Probably. But that +13 YouGov was probably an outlier as well.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    My views on Hartlepool:

    1. I have absolutely no idea who will win and nor, at this stage, does anybody else. I won't be betting. It may become clearer once all candidates are declared, but probably not.

    2. The ramifications, whether Labour holds or Tories gain, will be short-term and not worth getting too excited about. There's too much else going on at the moment for a by-election loss/gain to have longer-term traction. There will be no challenge to Starmer if Labour loses.

    Agreed. There is a tendency on PB and by political obsessives to overstate the importance of this stuff. I don't think it really makes a huge difference, Labour will keep Starmer until the election and then we'll see how that goes.
    I think they will, but if Starmer loses this it will undermine his leadership and lead to more scepticism and a divided party.

    Having an undermined, weak leader can be a worse fate than losing your leader.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,397

    Early contender for dumbassery of the day.

    https://twitter.com/gmb/status/1372091548012326915?s=21

    The inevitable enquiry (at least I hope it is inevitable) will highlight some very poor decision making across a lot of people. Did I see that no-one from SAGE even thought about closing the borders? Who is responsible then for that, if the enquiry says that many many lives would have been saved? No doubt the government made many, huge mistakes, but the context is key. Novel disease, only known about for the last 15 months. No-one really new the best approach - when everything is considered. This is not just 'keeping covid out' even if that were possible in the UK. Its if the costs in other areas. If keeping covid out crashes your economy into recession for 10 years, how many die as a result? Hindsight suggests a faster lockdown and shutting foreign travel would have saved lives and probably reduced economic damage, but that is hindsight.

    I keep going back to the fact that all the other western european countries are in the same shit, maybe currently standing in different levels of it. What I don't see is a better example that if we had only followed things would have been vastly better. Germany looked like it was, back last year. Not so much now.

    I know a lot of you will disagree, and that is to be expected. I'd only ask that those judging consider the circumstances, not just the hindsight view.
    A good post, so I'm not going to disagree with you. It is complicated. You can make disastrous decisions, but based on the evidence at the time the correct decision. You might make a wrong decision based upon the evidence and get away with it. You must base a review on what was known at the time and not hindsight.

    Also different for different countries. We are not New Zealand so we can't compare directly at all, but can look at what they did right and see if anything could be applied to us. Also Italy gave us a 3 week preparation time, that we may have wasted. Did we?

    Also in terms of countries flipping from doing well to badly South Africa is a good example. It was given credit for doing well due to its work on HIV. So what happened there then for it to go pearshaped?

    There is also a difference between preparation and reaction to events. John Hopkins University in 2019 rated the US most prepared with the UK a close 2nd. With the exception of South Korea (9th) South East Asia was nowhere in the list even though people refer to SARs as evidence of them being prepared (Vietnam was somewhere around 200th(?) in the list). So that is a contradiction. Vietnam might be a good country to look at with a similar density of population, but with covid much better controlled. What was different? is the difference something we could have done something about

    In 2016(?) we ran a hypothetical 'Swan flu' outbreak scenario. (All info above from recent R4 programme).
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,797
    Keir Starmer has the charisma of a piece of wood.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,734
    They are basically Corbyn Labour while wanting to return to the old Kingdom of Northumbria
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488

    Keir Starmer has the charisma of a piece of wood.

    Rich mahogany can be quite charming. ;)
  • pingping Posts: 2,659
    edited March 2021
    @Quincel Good post. Completely agree.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Keir Starmer has the charisma of a piece of wood.

    Rich mahogany can be quite charming. ;)
    He'd be MDF at best.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,344
    Mr. Root, rather sad. She was only 51.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,734
    edited March 2021
  • pingping Posts: 2,659
    Cheltenham day 1 was pretty miserable for me. 1 winner and a big net loss. Boo

    Anyone with any tips for day 2?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,488

    Keir Starmer has the charisma of a piece of wood.

    Rich mahogany can be quite charming. ;)
    He'd be MDF at best.
    What, free from natural defects with a smooth sanded surface and a precision finish?

    Sounds ideal.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,729
    Salmond/Sturgeon

    This still hasn't gone away....

    "A former UK cabinet minister says senior SNP figures should be investigated over possible “collusion, perjury and criminal conspiracy” in relation to the handling of complaints against Alex Salmond.

    "David Davis told the Commons he had evidence supplied by a whistleblower that suggested there had been “interference” from the highest levels of the party in the process.

    "And he said it raised questions about Nicola Sturgeon’s testimony before the Salmond inquiry as to when she became aware of complaints against the former first minister.

    "Using the protection of parliamentary privilege, the MP read from text messages, which he said showed a “concerted effort” by SNP staffers to drum up complaints."

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/uk-politics/2977369/david-davis-says-text-messages-show-collusion-perjury-and-criminal-conspiracy-in-alex-salmond-saga/

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,797

    Keir Starmer has the charisma of a piece of wood.

    Rich mahogany can be quite charming. ;)
    Mahogany is so last year....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Keir Starmer has the charisma of a piece of wood.

    Rich mahogany can be quite charming. ;)
    He'd be MDF at best.
    What, free from natural defects with a smooth sanded surface and a precision finish?

    Sounds ideal.
    Yes sounds like Starmer, completely free from any personality whatsoever.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,797

    Mr. Root, rather sad. She was only 51.

    V sad. She was very charismatic ...unlike Starmer...
This discussion has been closed.