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The UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Du

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235

    No it isn't, its a stupid soundbite since it isn't achievable. If we were to lockdown until we sustainably achieved Zero Pneumonia it would be devastating not a good policy.

    In order for a policy to be good it has to be achievable. If it isn't achievable, its not SMART.
    Calling the medical experts...

    It is my understanding that quite a number of people die of the flue each year, despite the vaccines. Also that Long Flu is thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    Wish me luck, I have to read the Bankers' Books Evidence Act of 1879 into a 2021 context.

    Now you have an inkling of how US Supreme Court justices feel most of the time...

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235

    Zero cancer and zero heart disease would be great actually - but neither is a disease brought on directly by social contact. Zero dementia would be good too. The human body will naturally reach the end of the road and expire - some say around 120.
    There are people working on fixes for all of that.... bone density, muscle loss etc etc
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited February 2021
    MattW said:



    I thought a Court had ordered it published.

    Have I missed a twister or turnip?

    Is the Scottish Government actually trying to get the Streisand Effect renamed the Sturgeon Effect ?

    All this is doing is giving still greater publicity to Salmond's allegations.

    Surely, the smart thing would have been to let Salmond make his allegations weeks ago, at the height of the pandemic when no-one was really interested.

    Does the Scottish Government understand Moore's Law ? ..... (Jo Moore, of course, not Gordon Moore).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1364191114081800196

    Good news but vaccine hesitant pregnant women may well read this as Covid safe for pregnant women... Not what this is saying.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited February 2021

    More from the Zero Covid brigade:

    This time in the Guardian:

    "we should establish “green zones” – areas where the virus has been judged to be under control, where there is no danger of infection and thus no need for restrictions."

    "The overarching aim should be maintaining minimal cases of Covid-19 (a level of about 10 new cases per 100,000 people a week, for example, might be judged low enough)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/21/uk-lockdown-health-livelihoods-2021-sage-committee

    If you listen to the fanbois on here, scientists don't want lockdown to go on a minute longer than necessary. Not a minute.

    Yeah right.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    I'm not sure what else he would say to a dinner of Chinese business people.
    There's always his go to gag about the mayor in Jaws.
  • The Crown Office has clearly decided it is now the Sturgeon Protection Service.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235
    Question for the legal experts -

    Would it be possible for a situation to arise where the Court could be in Contempt of Parliament and the Parliament in Contempt of Court, on the same matter?

    If so what happens?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639

    Wales did badly following their circuit breaker, but deaths have fallen steadily since then.

    England had a lot of cases in December and early January, leading to lots of deaths in January and early February. The hugeness of the spike is a distinctly English phenomenon.

    https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=e92000001&areas=s92000003&areas=w92000004&areas=n92000002&areas=deu&areas=irl&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

    OK, some of that is bad luck of having Kent Covid develop in... Kent, I guess. But it was first identified in late September. It was obvious towards the end of the November lockdown that something bad was going on (cases in the SE were failing to fall in the way they should have done and were elsewhere). And yet London started December in Tier 2, and Christmas was on until a few days before Christmas, and far too many schools remained open for far too long, and then there was the Twixtmas gap before we went back into lockdown. I think that was distinctively English.

    With hindsight, that was all calamitous. Question is- was it calamitous with reasonable foresight? Personally, I think it was. You're in a pandemic. You've had recent experience of exponential growth and the value of applying restrictions quickly so you can get a handle on what's going on. To faff the way England did between early December and early January was bad government.

    I accept that mileages vary on this.

    Thanks - I agree it was calamitous with reasonable foresight.
    The second wave has really been a disaster in the UK.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    edited February 2021

    More from the Zero Covid brigade:

    This time in the Guardian:

    "we should establish “green zones” – areas where the virus has been judged to be under control, where there is no danger of infection and thus no need for restrictions."

    "The overarching aim should be maintaining minimal cases of Covid-19 (a level of about 10 new cases per 100,000 people a week, for example, might be judged low enough)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/21/uk-lockdown-health-livelihoods-2021-sage-committee

    "One way of doing this would be repurposing unused spaces to create “Nightingale” schools where children are able to learn in a safe and socially distant way, reducing crowding in existing classrooms, and calling on former teachers who have left the profession to help. In addition, we could use blended learning, combining classroom and at-home education to reduce the amount of social mixing in schools. This would require ensuring that everyone has internet connectivity and laptops or tablets."

    Sounds like something out of Black Mirror.
  • The Crown Office has clearly decided it is now the Sturgeon Protection Service.
    Last night Sturgeon said to Salmond "show the evidence!", today the Crown Office took it down.....Since it had been lawyered to within an inch of it's life - it will be interesting to see what is "problematic".....
  • If you listen to the fanbois on here, scientists don't want lockdown to go on a minute longer than necessary. Not a minute.

    Yeah right.....
    Absolutely right.

    Did you here Whitty last night explaining why cases likely would go up again in the future and R would go above one, but that its not concerning with the vaccine and we need to live with it?

    Almost as if SAGE are not your SPECTRE madmen who want to control the world and lock us down forever afterall.
  • If you listen to the fanbois on here, scientists don't want lockdown to go on a minute longer than necessary. Not a minute.

    Yeah right.....
    Well, it is pretty obvious there are divisions within SAGE, which is probably as it should be. I would say Michie is a long way apart from, say, Robert Dingwall.

    Who has the upper hand is the question.

    Lilico has an interesting thread about the various SAGE scenarios:

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1364129171639836672
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Cyclefree said:

    After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.

    Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?

    What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.

    Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.

    More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.

    But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.

    Best of luck to your daughter, after what’s clearly been a terrible time. Let’s hope and pray for a long summer of good weather and domestic holidays.
  • Calling the medical experts...

    It is my understanding that quite a number of people die of the flue each year, despite the vaccines. Also that Long Flu is thing.
    9,000 a year from flu said Whitty last night iirc. And a lot more he added in a bad year.

    And yet we carry on with our lives and our economy and have for centuries. No one has proposed shutting down life for flu.

    Well, until now presumably...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Question for the legal experts -

    Would it be possible for a situation to arise where the Court could be in Contempt of Parliament and the Parliament in Contempt of Court, on the same matter?

    If so what happens?
    I'm not sure it is possible to be in contempt of Hoyrood. It's possible but I am aware of no provision for it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818

    It's so good not to have a maniac as President of the USA.
    Yes. As I'd hoped and expected my world is materially better with Donald Trump not in it. I'd liken it to the absence of piles.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Well, it is pretty obvious there are divisions within SAGE, which is probably as it should be. I would say Michie is a long way apart from, say, Robert Dingwall.

    Who has the upper hand is the question.

    Lilico has an interesting thread about the various SAGE scenarios:

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1364129171639836672
    I do not think that the country would have accepted a faster unlocking scenario. Much as I hate to admit it the measures outlined were a masterpiece of triangulation.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited February 2021

    Absolutely right.

    Did you here Whitty last night explaining why cases likely would go up again in the future and R would go above one, but that its not concerning with the vaccine and we need to live with it?

    Almost as if SAGE are not your SPECTRE madmen who want to control the world and lock us down forever afterall.
    Wow what a concession. Thanks Chris!

    Whitty is only onside because Johnson agreed to a timetable that saved his reputation. Florida and other US states have broken the link between lockdown and covid. There is no thermostat for turning the diseaseup or down beyond seasonality and vaccination. Demonstrably.

    Our emergence from lockdown is to maintain the notion that lockdown is such a thermostat as Whitless and Unabalanced have maintained all along .

    At a massive cost to Britain.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235
    DougSeal said:

    I'm not sure it is possible to be in contempt of Hoyrood. It's possible but I am aware of no provision for it.
    Pass it into law, quick. I want to see what happens...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8yW5cyXXRc
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    9,000 a year from flu said Whitty last night iirc. And a lot more he added in a bad year.

    And yet we carry on with our lives and our economy and have for centuries. No one has proposed shutting down life for flu.

    Well, until now presumably...
    The Gov't manages flu with a vaccination program for over 50s and also lots of under 50s through occupational offers.
    It'll be the same with Covid just with a potentially wider group to be vaccinated.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Yes, it's becoming a bit of a parody in all honesty.

    It does question the extent of devolution. I think that the UK government should, in exceptional circumstances, be able to declare a national emergency and for the specific aim of dealing with that emergency temporarily take back powers that would otherwise be devolved.
    It’s been the same in the US, with the various State governors and city mayors competing with each other to be different, and the announcements seemingly more playing politics (see, we are keeping our pubs open!) than actually dealing with the pandemic.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,845

    The Crown Office has clearly decided it is now the Sturgeon Protection Service.
    We have to remember that this evidence has already been published - several times. It is public. If there were any danger of identifying the complainants, we would be past that point. This has NOTHING to do with publication, EVERYTHING to do with whitewashing this enquiry report. How Sturgeon has the audacity to demand Salmond back his claims with evidence, and then have her rottweilers censor the same evidence, is breathtaking.
  • The Salmond/Sturgeon psychodrama is really confusing for those of us who haven't been following it much until now.

    But the Scottish Crown Office seem to be acting entirely improperly to me on first glace.

    Responding to allegations of impropriety in the Crown Office by the Crown Office turning around and saying "you're not allowed to make these allegations" is the sort of twisted behaviour I'd expect from China or Iran, not Scotland.

    Is anyone here defending the Crown Office actions? Or is it entirely inappropriate?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,845

    There are people working on fixes for all of that.... bone density, muscle loss etc etc
    It would appear that they're working on it from the wrong angle though. The point is replenishing the bodies resources and not damaging the body - not 'fixing' it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    People don't generally die from the Common Code (why was it even necessary to say that?)
    And yes, Zero Pneumonia is a good policy.
    The common cold probably does kill a lot of very elderly people.
  • DougSeal said:

    I do not think that the country would have accepted a faster unlocking scenario. Much as I hate to admit it the measures outlined were a masterpiece of triangulation.
    It certainly has that feel. I would prefer a bit faster but I can live with this.

    Sadly, there are plenty of people who are really, really struggling, so living with this for a bit longer is very hard for them.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Sandpit said:

    Best of luck to your daughter, after what’s clearly been a terrible time. Let’s hope and pray for a long summer of good weather and domestic holidays.
    Thank you. I have my fingers firmly crossed.

    One of her customers just drove up to drop by a bag of get well goodies for her. Such a lovely thought and thing to do. It really is not going out weather here and having to drive up a muddy mountain lane, get out to open a gate, drive, get out and do it again and then have to do all again on the way home shows real kindness.

    Whatever happens I am immensely proud of her. And blessed to have her.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Is it finally time, for the large bag of Scottish popcorn we’ve been promised for weeks?

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    Well, it is pretty obvious there are divisions within SAGE, which is probably as it should be. I would say Michie is a long way apart from, say, Robert Dingwall.

    Who has the upper hand is the question.

    Lilico has an interesting thread about the various SAGE scenarios:

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1364129171639836672
    It's an inaccurate report to start with.
    "The scientists also warned that reopening schools could see the Covid 'R' rate rise by as much as 0.5."

    No, they didn't. They said that the R-rate if we had no immunity from any sources would raise by as much as 0.5, but that because we had a mix of vaccine-generated immunity and acquired immunity, they estimated it might rise to around 1.09 from around 0.75.

    Which would be why every scenario had schools reopening on the 8th of March.

    And, as Lilico says, all bar "drop NPIs before vaccination" had similar deaths and that was explicit in the paper.

    Given that the reporter obviously misunderstood some fundamental aspects of the paper, I'd assume the argument is more with the misreport than what the advice actually said.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    edited February 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    All broadly sensible but you are going to need to make an exception for women of child-bearing age, many of whom work in care homes and hospitals. AIUI the vaccine is not recommended for those trying to get pregnant. So making it a condition of employment that such women must have one is not on.

    You also - if you are going to force people to have a medicine - need to have no fault compensation paid for by the state for anyone harmed by this, as is the case for other vaccinations I believe.
    There will inevitably be those who don't get vaccinated for reasons both rational and irrational. But I'm not sure how much this matters so long as the % population protected either by prior infection or vaccine is sufficient to squash community transmission. The primary objective of the vaccine rollout is macro not micro.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    edited February 2021

    Perfect. I said to someone earlier that I've been a Labour member for 50 years. Was tempted to add "And plan on remaining one for another 50 years...or die trying". I'll be 120 in 49 years, I think that would be a reasonable shot. :)
    We'll have to find a way of fixing Telemeres to stop cell division failing. Each division doesn't copy your whole DNA strand so some gets lost each time. The Telemere is effectively zero padding for each strand so that this doesn't matter until such time as it runs out.

    A correction, though. Some cancers are definitely caused by social contact, because the cancer risk is linked to viruses. HPV for one. There are likely others.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191
    For Biden this trip is surely about making good some of the damage that Trump did to the international standing of the US and its relations with its friends and allies. Biden is coming here because we are chair of the G7 and coordinating the agenda. He will want to make sure that that agenda facilitates his aims. A snub to the chair doesn't look the best way to do that.

    Biden has an experienced international team and their agenda is going to be the tensions with China, the chaos of Iran after Trump withdrew and pressing the EU (and Germany in particular) to think again about the gas pipeline from Russia. He may also want to discuss our intentions in relation to the TPP as I think he is considering rejoining. I think that he will want to work with the UK on all of these issues and will want to butter us up a bit after the rudeness of Trump.

    I am not betting in this market but if I were I think the UK is a good bet.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949
    Andy_JS said:

    The common cold probably does kill a lot of very elderly people.
    Depends on your definition of "kill".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited February 2021
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    edited February 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    The Gov't manages flu with a vaccination program for over 50s and also lots of under 50s through occupational offers.
    It'll be the same with Covid just with a potentially wider group to be vaccinated.
    In the winter of 1999/2000 there were 50000 excess deaths due to flu, and no one batted an eyelid
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    TOPPING said:

    "One way of doing this would be repurposing unused spaces to create “Nightingale” schools where children are able to learn in a safe and socially distant way, reducing crowding in existing classrooms, and calling on former teachers who have left the profession to help. In addition, we could use blended learning, combining classroom and at-home education to reduce the amount of social mixing in schools. This would require ensuring that everyone has internet connectivity and laptops or tablets."

    Sounds like something out of Black Mirror.
    I'm starting to wonder whether these people are actually insane, or whether they just take professional arse-covering to an extreme degree. Nobody who has school-age children could possibly write the above paragraph and believe in it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    kinabalu said:

    There will inevitably be those who don't get vaccinated for reasons both rational and irrational. But I'm not sure how much this matters so long as the % population protected either by prior infection or vaccine is sufficient to squash community transmission? The primary objective of the vaccine rollout is macro not micro.
    It is mainly a macro concern yes, but specifically a micro concern within health and social care settings due to the fact patients/residents may well have weaker immune systems even vaccinated.
    Which is why I expect it to be made mandatory in time for health and social care workers.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited February 2021

    But of course. Why on Earth would anyone expect that lockdown - a strategy of reducing person-to-person contact - would have any effect at all on a disease spread by person-to-person contact?

    Well, I'm convinced - it must all have been a secret plot to save Chris Whitty's reputation instead.
    That might work in your brain, but unfortunately it does not work in practice. Not in the way you think. Demonstrably. California locked down hard. Florida didn't. Same sort of climate. Result? not much difference. The link is not there in the 'turn down the covid, dear' way you think it is.

    And I can see why you do not want to admit the truth, because of the implications of the truth are pretty big.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367

    It's an inaccurate report to start with.
    "The scientists also warned that reopening schools could see the Covid 'R' rate rise by as much as 0.5."

    No, they didn't. They said that the R-rate if we had no immunity from any sources would raise by as much as 0.5, but that because we had a mix of vaccine-generated immunity and acquired immunity, they estimated it might rise to around 1.09 from around 0.75.

    Which would be why every scenario had schools reopening on the 8th of March.

    And, as Lilico says, all bar "drop NPIs before vaccination" had similar deaths and that was explicit in the paper.

    Given that the reporter obviously misunderstood some fundamental aspects of the paper, I'd assume the argument is more with the misreport than what the advice actually said.
    Thank you Andy. I heard that 0.5 figure in passing this morning and wondered where the hell it had come from and what the context was.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    BBC radio 4 news trying to shift the blame for not having a vaccine from the people themselves whove made the decision to elsewhere. Poor areas vs rich areas, etc.
  • It's going to be very interesting to compare this with the redacted version when it is published, and see exactly what (or who) the Crown Office doesn't want us to know.
  • Selebian said:

    Isn't z-score (that's the only country breadkdown I can see, apologies if I've missed a country excess death measure) dependent on standard deviation (number of standard deviations?). If so, Wales, being a smaller country may have a relatively larger standard deviation (smaller 'sample' so more natural variability, so any given increase could have a smaller z-score compared to the larger country - England - 'sample' with a relatively smaller standard deviation)
    Yes, z-score is a complete nonsense for measuring excess deaths during a pandemic. It's only useful when scanning for unanticipated signals (so that they are above background noise).

    --AS
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    In the winter of 1999/2000 there were 50000 excess deaths due to flu, and no one batted an eyelid
    Was there a widespread flu vaccine program around then ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited February 2021

    It's going to be very interesting to compare this with the redacted version when it is published, and see exactly what (or who) the Crown Office doesn't want us to know.
    Streisand effect in operation.
  • dixiedean said:

    Depends on your definition of "kill".
    I thought a number of very elderly people could develop pneumonia and die from as little as a common cold?
  • Interesting changes on employment levels in Oct-Dec 2020 compared with a year earlier:

    Total -542k
    UK born +251k
    EU born -497k
    Non EU born -298k

    And within the EU born:

    EU14 'Western Europe' -58k
    EU8 'Eastern Europe' -302k
    EU2 'Romania & Bulgaria' -138k

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbycountryofbirthandnationalityemp06

    Helps explain why unemployment hasn't become an issue during the last year.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191
    edited February 2021

    UK third in absolute terms, 8th in proportionate terms (Spain has 3 days data)

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


    Is that the first time an EU country has beaten us?
    Edit, 2 of them in fact. This has been a major slow down.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    dixiedean said:

    Depends on your definition of "kill".
    The same definition as the way that Covid-19 mainly kills elderly people.
  • Nigelb said:

    This is a debate which ought to have taken place before last summer.

    https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1364129529774669824

    Indeed. But nobody in power seems to listen to Mina, or ask advice of experts in (broadly) detection. I've been trying to resist venting my frustration here. Sadly I think it comes down to the very weak teaching of statistics to medical professionals (and indeed most scientists).

    --AS
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Interesting changes on employment levels in Oct-Dec 2020 compared with a year earlier:

    Total -542k
    UK born +251k
    EU born -497k
    Non EU born -298k

    And within the EU born:

    EU14 'Western Europe' -58k
    EU8 'Eastern Europe' -302k
    EU2 'Romania & Bulgaria' -138k

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbycountryofbirthandnationalityemp06

    Helps explain why unemployment hasn't become an issue during the last year.

    I dont think unemployment will be an issue is the coming year, I think the complete opposite will be true, It is certainly happening now in the M & E field. Its very difficult to get staff.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    DavidL said:

    Is that the first time an EU country has beaten us?
    Edit, 2 of them in fact. This has been a major slow down.
    It's really frustrating that we're slowing down rather than speeding up.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    It's an inaccurate report to start with.
    "The scientists also warned that reopening schools could see the Covid 'R' rate rise by as much as 0.5."

    No, they didn't. They said that the R-rate if we had no immunity from any sources would raise by as much as 0.5, but that because we had a mix of vaccine-generated immunity and acquired immunity, they estimated it might rise to around 1.09 from around 0.75.

    Which would be why every scenario had schools reopening on the 8th of March.

    And, as Lilico says, all bar "drop NPIs before vaccination" had similar deaths and that was explicit in the paper.

    Given that the reporter obviously misunderstood some fundamental aspects of the paper, I'd assume the argument is more with the misreport than what the advice actually said.
    Why would the scientists even bother to run a simulation assuming 'no immunity from any sources' when in the real world we have a plethora of vaccines coming on stream?

    Is it so the headline would be picked up by some brainless journalist with an agenda?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    It's going to be very interesting to compare this with the redacted version when it is published, and see exactly what (or who) the Crown Office doesn't want us to know.
    Let’s hope it’s as good as the EU’s redaction of the AstraZenica vaccine contract, where they redacted the bit that said the EU would have no legal recourse for delayed shipments, which were to be on a ‘best effort’ basis. While screaming to anyone who’d listen about the shipments being delayed.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    I dont think unemployment will be an issue is the coming year, I think the complete opposite will be true, It is certainly happening now in the M & E field. Its very difficult to get staff.
    Are you willing to take on people with no experience and train them?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    rkrkrk said:

    Thanks - I agree it was calamitous with reasonable foresight.
    The second wave has really been a disaster in the UK.
    Always remember though that locking down is not cost free. And is surprisingly ineffective in stopping the spread.
    The - understandable - instinct is always to say 'we should do something' or 'we should have done more'. But sometimes the treatment is worse than the disease.
    And also always remember that lockdown can only work with broad consent. Lockdown at Christmas would have been bitterly fought against.

    I am personally pathetically grateful, for my own mental health and that of my family, to have had even the small Christmas that we were allowed.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited February 2021
    (even more) Chaos descends into Liverpool Labour!

    The incumbent mayor has been bailed in December. So he obviously won't stand again this May.

    Around 10 people applied for selection. 3 local Cllrs were shortlisted. One (mainstream in terms of national internal politics) who was Deputy Mayor (and is now acting Mayor). One left-wing. One who opposed internally the previous mayor and would like to abolish the directly elected mayor position.

    Last week ballot papers were due to be delivered. However, the day before, the selection was halted. Candidates were called for a re-interview last Friday, with ballots to be distributed starting from this Monday 22th.

    Today, the selection has been stopped again. Applications are re-opened. The 3 previously shortlisted candidates are not invited to reapply again!

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/applications-liverpool-mayor-candidates-re-19896795

    Oh well, one of the flows Corbynite era was also disorganisation. It doesn't seem they have improved too much!
  • Why would the scientists even bother to run a simulation assuming 'no immunity from any sources' when in the real world we have a plethora of vaccines coming on stream?

    Is it so the headline would be picked up by some brainless journalist with an agenda?
    No.

    Its because you set the baseline as to what happens without immunity, then you build immunity into the model. Which they did. That way as immunity levels change you can update the model depending upon that factor, since immunity isn't fixed.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,609
    DougSeal said:

    I'm not sure it is possible to be in contempt of Hoyrood. It's possible but I am aware of no provision for it.
    Holyrood is in contempt of the Scottish people.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited February 2021
    DavidL said:

    Is that the first time an EU country has beaten us?
    Edit, 2 of them in fact. This has been a major slow down.
    It is also noticeable though that EU still not really speeding up at much. Its glacial progress in terms of ramping up e.g. Germany still only avergaing 130k a day vs 100k a month ago.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924

    Interesting changes on employment levels in Oct-Dec 2020 compared with a year earlier:

    Total -542k
    UK born +251k
    EU born -497k
    Non EU born -298k

    And within the EU born:

    EU14 'Western Europe' -58k
    EU8 'Eastern Europe' -302k
    EU2 'Romania & Bulgaria' -138k

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbycountryofbirthandnationalityemp06

    Helps explain why unemployment hasn't become an issue during the last year.

    People working in service industries have gone 'home' because it is a better place to be locked down? That part isn't a surprise.

    But UK born +250k? That _is_ a surprise, at least to me.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1364191114081800196

    Good news but vaccine hesitant pregnant women may well read this as Covid safe for pregnant women... Not what this is saying.

    But the pregnant aren't being offered the vaccine anyway.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Cookie said:

    But the pregnant aren't being offered the vaccine anyway.
    There'll be some in JCVI4, 6/healthcare workers
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949

    I thought a number of very elderly people could develop pneumonia and die from as little as a common cold?
    Well yes. But virtually no one in good health dies of a cold these days. It may be the final straw, but it will only ever be a contributory factor on top of other factors.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    edited February 2021

    Why would the scientists even bother to run a simulation assuming 'no immunity from any sources' when in the real world we have a plethora of vaccines coming on stream?

    Is it so the headline would be picked up by some brainless journalist with an agenda?
    They didn't.
    They were showing their working.

    Start with R at this point and adjust it up or down based on the extrapolated effects of NPIs.
    Then reduce it by the estimated reduction due to immunity (starting at 32% as of now and increasing*) to get the effective R value for the scenario in question.

    They annotate it every time to ensure it's clear.

    *It's in the first paragraph right at the start of the paper: "Current levels of
    transmissibility are based on our latest estimates for England at R_eff (including immunity) =0.75
    (translating to R_excl_immunity =1.10 with an estimated 32% of the population currently protected via
    prior infection- and/or vaccine-induced immunity)."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Interesting changes on employment levels in Oct-Dec 2020 compared with a year earlier:

    Total -542k
    UK born +251k
    EU born -497k
    Non EU born -298k

    And within the EU born:

    EU14 'Western Europe' -58k
    EU8 'Eastern Europe' -302k
    EU2 'Romania & Bulgaria' -138k

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbycountryofbirthandnationalityemp06

    Helps explain why unemployment hasn't become an issue during the last year.

    That matches with the story about the population of London declining by 700k. A majority of whom will have been foreign labour working in F&B, entertainment and service sectors, who have voluntarily deported themselves after losing jobs.

    The GDP per capita figure is going to be the one to watch in the recovery phase, assuming we can get accurate estimates of the denominator in something approaching real time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949
    Andy_JS said:

    The same definition as the way that Covid-19 mainly kills elderly people.
    Yes. But Covid also kills others as well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Question: how long will it be before we can go to places like pubs without having to show a vaccine certificate?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited February 2021

    That might work in your brain, but unfortunately it does not work in practice. Not in the way you think. Demonstrably. California locked down hard. Florida didn't. Same sort of climate. Result? not much difference. The link is not there in the 'turn down the covid, dear' way you think it is.

    And I can see why you do not want to admit the truth, because of the implications of the truth are pretty big.
    It will be very interesting indeed when all the global data gets crunched and we get a more precise idea of why exactly some areas did better or worse with the same or different measures. There'll be a vast array of factors to consider: restrictions, compliance, demographics, politics, geography, culture, economics, health systems, reporting standards, you name it. But that research hasn't been done yet - just juxtaposing the numbers from Florida and California is barely step 1 of the above process - and until it has, it's reasonable to assume from the preponderance of data available now that lockdowns reduce transmission in the same way that condoms help prevent pregnancies and umbrellas keep you from getting wet in the rain.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    edited February 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Question: how long will it be before we can go to places like pubs without having to show a vaccine certificate?

    17 May because I don`t think private companies will insist on vaccination certificates.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,679
    edited February 2021

    Holyrood is in contempt of the Scottish people.
    Who appoints the bosses of the Crown Office?
  • It will be very interesting indeed when all the global data gets crunched and we get a more precise idea of why exactly some areas did better or worse with the same or different measures. There'll be a vast array of factors to consider: restrictions, compliance, demographics, politics, geography, culture, economics, health systems, reporting standards, you name it. But that research hasn't been done yet - just juxtaposing the numbers from Florida and California is barely step 1 of the above process - and until it has, it's reasonable to assume from the preponderance of data available now that lockdowns reduce transmission in the same way that condoms help prevent pregnancies and umbrellas keep you from getting wet in the rain.
    He probably thinks that umbrellas *cause* rain, because it rains when people carry them. After all, has anyone done a double-blind randomized trial of whether umbrellas keep you dry?

    Personally, I think it's a conspiracy by evil scientists who want to force everyone to carry umbrellas, because they enjoy exercising that sort of power.

    --AS
  • flizzyflizzy Posts: 11

    It will be very interesting indeed when all the global data gets crunched and we get a more precise idea of why exactly some areas did better or worse with the same or different measures. There'll be a vast array of factors to consider: restrictions, compliance, demographics, politics, geography, culture, economics, health systems, reporting standards, you name it. But that research hasn't been done yet - just juxtaposing the numbers from Florida and California is barely step 1 of the above process - and until it has, it's reasonable to assume from the preponderance of data available now that lockdowns reduce transmission in the same way that condoms help prevent pregnancies and umbrellas keep you from getting wet in the rain.
    You know you can see the exact dates, with a lag, of the November lockdown in the cases and hospitalisation datasets? Try explaining that if lockdowns don't work. Unfortunately the death data is way too noisy by day of the week to be able to eyeball it in the raw data but you can definitely see the pause in the increase in the second wave.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191

    Interesting changes on employment levels in Oct-Dec 2020 compared with a year earlier:

    Total -542k
    UK born +251k
    EU born -497k
    Non EU born -298k

    And within the EU born:

    EU14 'Western Europe' -58k
    EU8 'Eastern Europe' -302k
    EU2 'Romania & Bulgaria' -138k

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbycountryofbirthandnationalityemp06

    Helps explain why unemployment hasn't become an issue during the last year.

    Its almost as if freedom of movement and competition for work from the EU had been restricting the opportunities of British people to get jobs in our economy. Obviously that can't be true, I have read the opposite so many times on here.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    It will be very interesting indeed when all the global data gets crunched and we get a more precise idea of why exactly some areas did better or worse with the same or different measures. There'll be a vast array of factors to consider: restrictions, compliance, demographics, politics, geography, culture, economics, health systems, reporting standards, you name it. But that research hasn't been done yet - just juxtaposing the numbers from Florida and California is barely step 1 of the above process - and until it has, it's reasonable to assume from the preponderance of data available now that lockdowns reduce transmission in the same way that condoms help prevent pregnancies and umbrellas keep you from getting wet in the rain.
    I am sure you will clutch at any straw in your desperation to cover up the biggest peacetime policy error by any government since appeasement.

    Its still the biggest policy error since appeasment. And I intend to make the fake tories that propounded it wear it like an albatross.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited February 2021
    https://youtu.be/h5kYo_OHStk

    Made me chuckle....while ranting about why isn't Starmer standing up, why aren't the normal people standing up to this corrupt evil government, they show a clip of what I presume he wants it to be for "us" to be getting together and demanding change...by showing a clip of wokerity people no appaulding, rather doing the jazz hands, the sort of people who have a badge with their pronouns on like It, Z and They...I can't see Stoke man having much in common with those type of people and there in lies the problem for the Corbynista rip it all up and start again.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Sandpit said:

    That matches with the story about the population of London declining by 700k. A majority of whom will have been foreign labour working in F&B, entertainment and service sectors, who have voluntarily deported themselves after losing jobs.

    The GDP per capita figure is going to be the one to watch in the recovery phase, assuming we can get accurate estimates of the denominator in something approaching real time.
    It just so happens that 21 March is Census Day.

    On the subject of which, it would be interesting to know how the ONS are doing their coverage survey (assuming it's being done like last time). Basically, they have an independent unit to sample 1% of postcodes by knocking on doors and collecting the information the old fashioned way. Then you can work out how many people were missed by the real thing. I guess they might have special dispensation to do their work.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    edited February 2021

    It will be very interesting indeed when all the global data gets crunched and we get a more precise idea of why exactly some areas did better or worse with the same or different measures. There'll be a vast array of factors to consider: restrictions, compliance, demographics, politics, geography, culture, economics, health systems, reporting standards, you name it. But that research hasn't been done yet - just juxtaposing the numbers from Florida and California is barely step 1 of the above process - and until it has, it's reasonable to assume from the preponderance of data available now that lockdowns reduce transmission in the same way that condoms help prevent pregnancies and umbrellas keep you from getting wet in the rain.
    People are very keen to compare the UK's performance (good and bad) with other countries where all those factors differ also. Between two states in the US is not an outrageous comparison, therefore.
  • DavidL said:

    Its almost as if freedom of movement and competition for work from the EU had been restricting the opportunities of British people to get jobs in our economy. Obviously that can't be true, I have read the opposite so many times on here.
    Can anyone explain UK born +251k during a pandemic?

    That doesn't make any intuitive sense to me. Not all of the country is like London, up here hospitality is typically staffed by UK born not migrant staff.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    O/T

    This article is from 2015.

    “Are we becoming slaves to our smartphones? And are we afraid to admit it?“

    https://theplaidzebra.com/are-we-becoming-slaves-to-our-smartphones-and-are-we-afraid-to-admit-it/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    Question: how long will it be before we can go to places like pubs without having to show a vaccine certificate?

    Six weeks or so. April 12.
  • In the winter of 1999/2000 there were 50000 excess deaths due to flu, and no one batted an eyelid
    But no excess deaths due to smallpox, yet no-one pilloried the Zero Smallpox advocates.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    Six weeks or so. April 12.
    I think Andy means indoors, not just pub gardens.
  • But no excess deaths due to smallpox, yet no-one pilloried the Zero Smallpox advocates.
    Zero smallpox was feasible.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    DavidL said:

    Its almost as if freedom of movement and competition for work from the EU had been restricting the opportunities of British people to get jobs in our economy. Obviously that can't be true, I have read the opposite so many times on here.
    Or could be that the benefits cap is now removed if you earn more than £605 per month.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    edited February 2021

    But no excess deaths due to smallpox, yet no-one pilloried the Zero Smallpox advocates.
    Nobody was locking down to avoid smallpox. Only vaccinating.

    Also, the zero smallpox plan started in 1800 and only delivered recently.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    Pulpstar said:

    It is mainly a macro concern yes, but specifically a micro concern within health and social care settings due to the fact patients/residents may well have weaker immune systems even vaccinated.
    Which is why I expect it to be made mandatory in time for health and social care workers.
    I do see a case for that but I'm not sure how much of a slam dunk it is in the event the virus is squashed due to aggregate immunity. You'd have to weight the benefit of the reduced risk of transmission to the vulnerable versus the cost of losing staff in a sector that finds recruitment difficult.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Can anyone explain UK born +251k during a pandemic?

    That doesn't make any intuitive sense to me. Not all of the country is like London, up here hospitality is typically staffed by UK born not migrant staff.
    The obvious answer is that the immigrants left London in the spring last year, so by the late summer, as the bars and restaurants reopened, they found U.K. staff to fill them.

    There will also have been a load of new jobs created in things like delivery and security during the pandemic, in many cases grabbing unemployed Brits before they hit the dole.

    There’s a great PhD thesis in a thorough analysis of those figures across sectors.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    https://youtu.be/h5kYo_OHStk

    Made me chuckle....while ranting about why isn't Starmer standing up, why aren't the normal people standing up to this corrupt evil government, they show a clip of what I presume he wants it to be for "us" to be getting together and demanding change...by showing a clip of wokerity people no appaulding, rather doing the jazz hands, the sort of people who have a badge with their pronouns on like It, Z and They...I can't see Stoke man having much in common with those type of people and there in lies the problem for the Corbynista rip it all up and start again.

    Stoke man will not vote for SKS either IMHO.
This discussion has been closed.