Well that is me all Pfizered up. Very very well organised and no issues at all.
Second jab due on 11th May. Which is actually 11 weeks from now rather than 12.
No adverse effects so far, no sign of mind control and of course I do believe that Bill Gates (all hail the great Gates) should be president of the world.... wait, I didn't mean to write that....
Hurrah, I also had the Pfizer one, my only side effect was a soreness in the jabbed arm for 48/72 hours.
I would've had Pfizer if the Surgery had been open... not sure what I will get now.. is there really any difference
Nope not much that I can see. I only mentioned it as a point of interest as I had somehow expected to get the AZ version.
Who is this prat? Clearly not a PBer as subsamples are meaningless. Why does he get endlessly retweeted on here?
I would not go so far as to say subsamples are meaningless, however as with any small dataset we do need to exercise a large degree of caution when drawing conclusions from them.
The movement in this particular subsample being purely from nationalist to unionist is very interesting, as it would tally with recent polls showing support for independence gradually falling. And the big drop in SNP support would indicate the Salmond/Sturgeon mess is finally being noticed by the public - something I think most PBers expected to have happened already.
As has been said, the next full Scottish poll will be interesting indeed.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
He's only even close to being right because of the horrific increase in death brought about by the Kent variant which has resulted in nearly half of all our deaths in the last 2-3months. It's not impossible that he forecast more infectious variants developing but I don't recall that at the time. Even then we are probably only going to get 1/3 of what he forecast which isn't that close.
lol. He said 400,000 with no controls (and, like everyone else, he did not expect vaccines so quick). We're still gonna see 150,000 dead with total lockdowns and superb vaccines
Given that he is an expert in this field, I imagine he did expect mutations, because, as we have now all learned, painfully, they happen all the time with viruses, eg flu
You clearly have some animus against the guy, which upsets you, but I'm afraid he was right, on this question. He was much mocked, but he has been vindicated.
I have no animus against him at all. I thought that his original model was simplistic and frankly not much short of meaningless because it seemed to assume we were going to carry on like normal and just die. That was never a realistic assumption although it was a fair enough warning that action was urgently required. If he brought home to the government that we needed to act, lock down and invest serious money in vaccines he did us a great service but that doesn't make him right.
No that is simply wrong. His model was based on what would happen IF we did nothing. And bear in mind there were siren voices at the time claiming we should do exactly that - refuse to lockdown and go for herd immunity as fast as possible. It was his calculations and modelling that persuaded the Government that such a course would be nothing short of catastrophic.
Setting aside his personal failings, he has been pretty much spot on and has served both the Government and this country very well.
That being said (and I don't know how easy this is to model), populations lock themselves down all by themselves irrespective of government diktat.
Absolutely. And so any prediction based on 'doing nothing' is based on a false assumption. Some US states decided to start trusting their citizens.
I would argue its paid dividends. And its also showed up the tories as a bunch of closet socialists.
You really are a special kind of lunatic aren't you.
Mind you at least you have stopped going on about Sweden now that that little experiment has failed.
If we do nothing, death toll between 410,000-550,000 dependent on actual R0 (estimated between 2.0 and 2.6) The various interventions and triggers for rolling lockdowns (which werent, in the end, followed) gave a death toll for R=2.6 (the highest modelled; it turned out to be higher than that) of between 12,000 and 120,000, depending on the breadth of measures followed and how hair-trigger we were on the lockdowns.
It gave a wide breadth of options for policymakers (from exercising all of them when new weekly covid-diagnosed ICU cases exceeded 60 and maintained until they dropped to only 15 per week - to exercising only three of them and only when new weekly ICU cases from covid exceeded 400).
I think he could be criticised for not being sufficiently pessimistic (R was, in fact, in excess of 3), but the IFRs look pretty close to the now-known levels.
Yes, that now looks seriously prescient.
Ferguson has got a lot of grief, some of it justified - eg for tupping his mistress during lockdown - and some of it absolutely unjustified: eg he has received constant death threats and other lurid menaces on social media, for being a "scare mongerer", or "doom porn merchant" or "wanting to destroy the economy" and all that bollocks. Some of the violent threats were truly nasty.
Given what he has endured, I reckon he should be allowed his quiet moment of epidemiological vindication
The carping about the amateur quality of his computer coding (it's what academics do, because they want the simplest thing that generates results for them) was massively below the belt. Especially since the big picture of his result followed on the back of an envelope from "most people will need to get this to make it go away" and "of those, about 1% will die- not 0.1% or 10%".
Have the Oxford lot recanted yet?
The “Oxford lot” was almost solely Sunetra Gupta on her own, and she was obviously isolated from late March onwards. I don’t think she’s ever admitted how horrifically wrong she was; she’s doubled down with the Great Barrington loonies.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
Most of the experts, sadly, expect another 30,000 dead (so does the increasingly reliable University of Washington model)
As the scientists now know a LOT more about this virus, I am willing to trust them accordingly. I fear you are being optimistic, but let's hope you are right.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Yes, that's fair. The pubs will open oop north, but for restaurants it will be harder. The ones that serve cold lunches to hardy walkers will do fine, but city centre curry houses less so.
I still reckon many will try
See here;s the thing.
When Ron de Santis refused to lockdown Florida through the winter, America's scientists predicted Armageddon. Hospitals overwhelmed. Massive casualties.
Unlike manchild Johnson, De santis refused to be intimidated. And guess what. It never happened. Florida is number 27 on the US states death list, despite being one of America's retirement capitals. Its behind almost all the blue states with their lockdown frenzies.
Did Florida, or South Dakota for that matter, or some other deep red states 'let the disease rip?' nope. They just went a different route. A much lighter touch route.
Its never really been about 'doing nothing'. Its about how appropriate the response of government is.
Ignoring the fact that Florida did have a lockdown just as tough as, if not tougher than, most other US states during the first wave. You are being very selective in your choice of data.
Maybe and that's why I merely claim the relationship between lockdown and covid is not like a thermostat on the central heating. We can;t simply use it to 'turn it down' at the householder's will. Its more complex.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
There is a southern invention, unknown in the NE that can be useful in these situations. We call it "a coat"
😅
Not necessary even in midwinter up there. Great news for outdoor pubs.
My youngest came for a walk with me in a T shirt a fortnight or so ago. It was four below with six inches of lying snow. I do not exaggerate here.
There are some pupils who come to school in the same type of clothing (jacket, shirt, thin jumper, no coat) every day of the school year without seeming to notice any change in the weather.
The coldest weather I have sat outside in was one December night with snow on the ground and someone measured it at 261K (-12C for those who can't cope with proper metric units). The large fire helped, as did the whisky (or in my case whiskey).
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
I might do a trend on Scottish subsamples this weekend.
It woulds actually be interesting to have your thoughts as to why they are (seemingly) deemed to be particularly unreliable - a sort of PB equivalent to luvvies talking about the Scottish Play. Any worse than say Wales?
Just a thought!
All subsamples are unreliable to some extent.
But to use Scotland as example, a proper Scottish poll has around 1,000 respondents, which gives a margin of error of 3.1 but the margin of error on a sub sample of 154 is 7.9.
A MOE of 3.1 generally provides accurate results, polls with an MOE of 7.9 do not.
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
Seems increasing number of PB regulars have had their jabs now. I wonder if we've reached "crossover" where most PBers have had it?
Seems like it.
Has any attempt ever been made to estimate the mean age on here?
If we've got to said crossover then that would probably suggest around 65...
Quite a few working age people have said they've had it, whether it be because they're vulnerable, because there were spare doses, getting it while taking relatives in or another reason.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
He's only even close to being right because of the horrific increase in death brought about by the Kent variant which has resulted in nearly half of all our deaths in the last 2-3months. It's not impossible that he forecast more infectious variants developing but I don't recall that at the time. Even then we are probably only going to get 1/3 of what he forecast which isn't that close.
lol. He said 400,000 with no controls (and, like everyone else, he did not expect vaccines so quick). We're still gonna see 150,000 dead with total lockdowns and superb vaccines
Given that he is an expert in this field, I imagine he did expect mutations, because, as we have now all learned, painfully, they happen all the time with viruses, eg flu
You clearly have some animus against the guy, which upsets you, but I'm afraid he was right, on this question. He was much mocked, but he has been vindicated.
I have no animus against him at all. I thought that his original model was simplistic and frankly not much short of meaningless because it seemed to assume we were going to carry on like normal and just die. That was never a realistic assumption although it was a fair enough warning that action was urgently required. If he brought home to the government that we needed to act, lock down and invest serious money in vaccines he did us a great service but that doesn't make him right.
No that is simply wrong. His model was based on what would happen IF we did nothing. And bear in mind there were siren voices at the time claiming we should do exactly that - refuse to lockdown and go for herd immunity as fast as possible. It was his calculations and modelling that persuaded the Government that such a course would be nothing short of catastrophic.
Setting aside his personal failings, he has been pretty much spot on and has served both the Government and this country very well.
That being said (and I don't know how easy this is to model), populations lock themselves down all by themselves irrespective of government diktat.
Absolutely. And so any prediction based on 'doing nothing' is based on a false assumption. Some US states decided to start trusting their citizens.
I would argue its paid dividends. And its also showed up the tories as a bunch of closet socialists.
You really are a special kind of lunatic aren't you.
Mind you at least you have stopped going on about Sweden now that that little experiment has failed.
I do miss the tweets from Alistair Haimes and other tweets about how the false positive rates means the scientists and politicians want us to keep us locked down forever.
Seems increasing number of PB regulars have had their jabs now. I wonder if we've reached "crossover" where most PBers have had it?
Seems like it.
Has any attempt ever been made to estimate the mean age on here?
If we've got to said crossover then that would probably suggest around 65...
Quite a few working age people have said they've had it, whether it be because they're vulnerable, because there were spare doses, getting it while taking relatives in or another reason.
I've had one, but I'm only in my early fifties. I'm vulnerable though.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Jesting aside.
Food will go cold very quickly, as well as the punters.
I had a meal outside in the rain last year at Milford (staffs) while on a bike ride to Shugburough.
It was OK but not the most cheerful meal I’ve ever had.
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
So its FU to the 25% who dont have smartphones. What a surprise.
Why should a tiny minority hold the rest of the country back?
I want to be able to exist and live without my phone.
A simple workaround could be found using QR codes I’m sure. There would be privacy issues but if a venue could use a phone to scan a QR code on a letter from a GP, or similar like an NHS card, that linked to the NHS database, cross refer it to a driving licence or a credit card, then Bob’s your uncle. It’d be little more intrusive than being carded for age.
Seems increasing number of PB regulars have had their jabs now. I wonder if we've reached "crossover" where most PBers have had it?
Seems like it.
Has any attempt ever been made to estimate the mean age on here?
If we've got to said crossover then that would probably suggest around 65...
Quite a few working age people have said they've had it, whether it be because they're vulnerable, because there were spare doses, getting it while taking relatives in or another reason.
I might do a trend on Scottish subsamples this weekend.
It woulds actually be interesting to have your thoughts as to why they are (seemingly) deemed to be particularly unreliable - a sort of PB equivalent to luvvies talking about the Scottish Play. Any worse than say Wales?
Just a thought!
All subsamples are unreliable to some extent.
But to use Scotland as example, a proper Scottish poll has around 1,000 respondents, which gives a margin of error of 3.1 but the margin of error on a sub sample of 154 is 7.9.
A MOE of 3.1 generally provides accurate results, polls with an MOE of 7.9 do not.
Isn't that compounded by the fact that the 1,000 will be properly weighted so MoE of 3.1
But the 154 won't even be properly weighted so the MoE could be even worse than 7.9 ?
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Jesting aside.
Food will go cold very quickly, as well as the punters.
I had a meal outside in the rain last year at Milford (staffs) while on a bike ride to Shugburough.
It was OK but not the most cheerful meal I’ve ever had.
Seems increasing number of PB regulars have had their jabs now. I wonder if we've reached "crossover" where most PBers have had it?
Seems like it.
Has any attempt ever been made to estimate the mean age on here?
If we've got to said crossover then that would probably suggest around 65...
Quite a few working age people have said they've had it, whether it be because they're vulnerable, because there were spare doses, getting it while taking relatives in or another reason.
I’ve had first dose via work. I’m 48.
I am 55 but I think they put me on the list early because I had cancer a few years ago. At least that is the only reason I can think of.
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
So its FU to the 25% who dont have smartphones. What a surprise.
Why should a tiny minority hold the rest of the country back?
I want to be able to exist and live without my phone.
A simple workaround could be found using QR codes I’m sure. There would be privacy issues but if a venue could use a phone to scan a QR code on a letter from a GP, or similar like an NHS card, that linked to the NHS database, cross refer it to a driving licence or a credit card, then Bob’s your uncle. It’d be little more intrusive than being carded for age.
A credit card sized photocard with a QR code on it ought to be rather simple to design surely?
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
It's the thought of the toast and pate turning to soup in the rain. Not to menton the dilution of the 15yo Old Pulteney.
The toast and pate I could live with, but watered down Old Pulteney 😱
I ikmagine the trick is to reduce the amount you put in first to sort of compensate. But frankly it'd be safer to have a pint mug of something from the Black Isle and an insulated pint mug of scotch broth or neep and carrot soup, the way the weather is at the moment.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
It's the thought of the toast and pate turning to soup in the rain. Not to menton the dilution of the 15yo Old Pulteney.
The toast and pate I could live with, but watered down Old Pulteney 😱
I ikmagine the trick is to reduce the amount you put in first to sort of compensate. But frankly it'd be safer to have a pint mug of something from the Black Isle and an insulated pint mug of scotch broth or neep and carrot soup, the way the weather is at the moment.
Would that make you a happy chappy?
After several pints of both, esp. if one is made with lamb shank, and with a decent warm Barbour or anorak? Very. But you might as well take a wide mouth thermos and fill it with soup before going out, ditto some cans of 80/-. And find a nice quiet tree to sit under with nobody talking loudly 3 yards upwind of you. Which rather obviates the notion of a pub garden as far as I am concerned.
This is the time of year I find it most difficult to believe, in my heart, the sun will come back, weather will improve, etc.
Lovely down here in London town. Proper spring and all that. Sorry
Seems increasing number of PB regulars have had their jabs now. I wonder if we've reached "crossover" where most PBers have had it?
Seems like it.
Has any attempt ever been made to estimate the mean age on here?
If we've got to said crossover then that would probably suggest around 65...
Quite a few working age people have said they've had it, whether it be because they're vulnerable, because there were spare doses, getting it while taking relatives in or another reason.
I'm not sure there can be that many who are either health and care workers, shielding or just plain lucky. I don't know, maybe that gets the average down to 60?
Seems increasing number of PB regulars have had their jabs now. I wonder if we've reached "crossover" where most PBers have had it?
Seems like it.
Has any attempt ever been made to estimate the mean age on here?
If we've got to said crossover then that would probably suggest around 65...
Quite a few working age people have said they've had it, whether it be because they're vulnerable, because there were spare doses, getting it while taking relatives in or another reason.
I’ve had first dose via work. I’m 48.
I am 55 but I think they put me on the list early because I had cancer a few years ago. At least that is the only reason I can think of.
Very grateful for access via work as will be teaching u/g this week, but probably would have been offered through the go too as had leukaemia in 2012 plus a touch of asthma. I think we are looking at a lot higher supply levels next month so expect a lot more of us on pb to get done ( including some one shot wonders...)
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
So its FU to the 25% who dont have smartphones. What a surprise.
Why should a tiny minority hold the rest of the country back?
I want to be able to exist and live without my phone.
A simple workaround could be found using QR codes I’m sure. There would be privacy issues but if a venue could use a phone to scan a QR code on a letter from a GP, or similar like an NHS card, that linked to the NHS database, cross refer it to a driving licence or a credit card, then Bob’s your uncle. It’d be little more intrusive than being carded for age.
A photocard with a QR code on it ought to be rather simple to design surely?
It’s an ID card by any other name but yes, shouldn’t be a problem.
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
Seems increasing number of PB regulars have had their jabs now. I wonder if we've reached "crossover" where most PBers have had it?
Seems like it.
Has any attempt ever been made to estimate the mean age on here?
If we've got to said crossover then that would probably suggest around 65...
Quite a few working age people have said they've had it, whether it be because they're vulnerable, because there were spare doses, getting it while taking relatives in or another reason.
I’ve had first dose via work. I’m 48.
I am 55 but I think they put me on the list early because I had cancer a few years ago. At least that is the only reason I can think of.
Yes, one of my neighbours is in group four because she had cancer four years ago (and recovered completely).
Handelsblatt should be a term of insult for years to come.
Nationwide, only 87,000 of the 736,800 AstraZeneca vaccine doses delivered to date have been used, according to Germany's disease agency, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).
Handelsblatt should be a term of insult for years to come.
Nationwide, only 87,000 of the 736,800 AstraZeneca vaccine doses delivered to date have been used, according to Germany's disease agency, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
If we do nothing, death toll between 410,000-550,000 dependent on actual R0 (estimated between 2.0 and 2.6) The various interventions and triggers for rolling lockdowns (which werent, in the end, followed) gave a death toll for R=2.6 (the highest modelled; it turned out to be higher than that) of between 12,000 and 120,000, depending on the breadth of measures followed and how hair-trigger we were on the lockdowns.
It gave a wide breadth of options for policymakers (from exercising all of them when new weekly covid-diagnosed ICU cases exceeded 60 and maintained until they dropped to only 15 per week - to exercising only three of them and only when new weekly ICU cases from covid exceeded 400).
I think he could be criticised for not being sufficiently pessimistic (R was, in fact, in excess of 3), but the IFRs look pretty close to the now-known levels.
A significant number of deaths have happened as more transmissible Kent variant took hold. I am sure some of the sceptical scientists must have changed their views too in light of this change and new evidence. It doesn't relate to Ferguson's initial prediction from the initial data.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
I used to work for the largest pub company in the UK. Some pubs will try to open as best they can. Many spent thousands on Covid booths and screens to open last year. The key thing to remember is that pubs are significantly more profitable in the south of England especially London, so they will be keen to get people back drinking and through the metaphorical doors
Can anyone please explain why Friday is better than Wednesday from Salmond's point of view. Is something likely to happen on Thursday that will change anything?
If we do nothing, death toll between 410,000-550,000 dependent on actual R0 (estimated between 2.0 and 2.6) The various interventions and triggers for rolling lockdowns (which werent, in the end, followed) gave a death toll for R=2.6 (the highest modelled; it turned out to be higher than that) of between 12,000 and 120,000, depending on the breadth of measures followed and how hair-trigger we were on the lockdowns.
It gave a wide breadth of options for policymakers (from exercising all of them when new weekly covid-diagnosed ICU cases exceeded 60 and maintained until they dropped to only 15 per week - to exercising only three of them and only when new weekly ICU cases from covid exceeded 400).
I think he could be criticised for not being sufficiently pessimistic (R was, in fact, in excess of 3), but the IFRs look pretty close to the now-known levels.
A significant number of deaths have happened as more transmissible Kent variant took hold. I am sure some of the sceptical scientists must have changed their views too in light of this change and new evidence. It doesn't relate to Ferguson's initial prediction from the initial data.
On the other hand his 400,000 deaths was based on 60% (a herd immunity estimate of the country) getting it. Being a hard hearted Machiavellian bastard about this, the Kent variant managed to push us a lot closer to that at the expense of a lot of people’s nearest and dearest. He estimates that 32% of the country has had it. Very very crudely the figures (I think the best estimate for IFR is 0.75% now) do begin to add up.
Can anyone please explain why Friday is better than Wednesday from Salmond's point of view. Is something likely to happen on Thursday that will change anything?
Handelsblatt should be a term of insult for years to come.
Nationwide, only 87,000 of the 736,800 AstraZeneca vaccine doses delivered to date have been used, according to Germany's disease agency, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).
Meanwhile...
Germany is in a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic, Chancellor Angela Merkel told lawmakers in her conservative party, two sources at the meeting told Reuters on Tuesday.
“We are now in the third wave,” they quoted her as saying and said she warned that any easing of lockdown measures introduced late last year and extended until March 7 would have to be done carefully and gradually.
The closure of all non-essential businesses and border controls with Austria and the Czech Republic, where there have been outbreaks linked to a more infectious variant of the virus, have helped Germany bring down new daily COVID-19 infections.
But a slow vaccination roll-out and the risk of major outbreaks of fast-spreading variants already identified in Germany could make any easing of restrictions more difficult.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
He's only even close to being right because of the horrific increase in death brought about by the Kent variant which has resulted in nearly half of all our deaths in the last 2-3months. It's not impossible that he forecast more infectious variants developing but I don't recall that at the time. Even then we are probably only going to get 1/3 of what he forecast which isn't that close.
lol. He said 400,000 with no controls (and, like everyone else, he did not expect vaccines so quick). We're still gonna see 150,000 dead with total lockdowns and superb vaccines
Given that he is an expert in this field, I imagine he did expect mutations, because, as we have now all learned, painfully, they happen all the time with viruses, eg flu
You clearly have some animus against the guy, which upsets you, but I'm afraid he was right, on this question. He was much mocked, but he has been vindicated.
I have no animus against him at all. I thought that his original model was simplistic and frankly not much short of meaningless because it seemed to assume we were going to carry on like normal and just die. That was never a realistic assumption although it was a fair enough warning that action was urgently required. If he brought home to the government that we needed to act, lock down and invest serious money in vaccines he did us a great service but that doesn't make him right.
No that is simply wrong. His model was based on what would happen IF we did nothing. And bear in mind there were siren voices at the time claiming we should do exactly that - refuse to lockdown and go for herd immunity as fast as possible. It was his calculations and modelling that persuaded the Government that such a course would be nothing short of catastrophic.
Setting aside his personal failings, he has been pretty much spot on and has served both the Government and this country very well.
That being said (and I don't know how easy this is to model), populations lock themselves down all by themselves irrespective of government diktat.
Absolutely. And so any prediction based on 'doing nothing' is based on a false assumption. Some US states decided to start trusting their citizens.
I would argue its paid dividends. And its also showed up the tories as a bunch of closet socialists.
You really are a special kind of lunatic aren't you.
Mind you at least you have stopped going on about Sweden now that that little experiment has failed.
In my head I like to think of contrarian as a Russian psy-ops plant, here to spread discord and dissent in the ranks. At least it makes puts the things he writes into a context where they make some kind of sense.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
Most of the experts, sadly, expect another 30,000 dead (so does the increasingly reliable University of Washington model)
As the scientists now know a LOT more about this virus, I am willing to trust them accordingly. I fear you are being optimistic, but let's hope you are right.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Yes, that's fair. The pubs will open oop north, but for restaurants it will be harder. The ones that serve cold lunches to hardy walkers will do fine, but city centre curry houses less so.
I still reckon many will try
See here;s the thing.
When Ron de Santis refused to lockdown Florida through the winter, America's scientists predicted Armageddon. Hospitals overwhelmed. Massive casualties.
Unlike manchild Johnson, De santis refused to be intimidated. And guess what. It never happened. Florida is number 27 on the US states death list, despite being one of America's retirement capitals. Its behind almost all the blue states with their lockdown frenzies.
Did Florida, or South Dakota for that matter, or some other deep red states 'let the disease rip?' nope. They just went a different route. A much lighter touch route.
Its never really been about 'doing nothing'. Its about how appropriate the response of government is.
Ignoring the fact that Florida did have a lockdown just as tough as, if not tougher than, most other US states during the first wave. You are being very selective in your choice of data.
Also ignoring the fact that a lot of Florida's cities and counties imposed much greater measures than were mandated by the state.
If we do nothing, death toll between 410,000-550,000 dependent on actual R0 (estimated between 2.0 and 2.6) The various interventions and triggers for rolling lockdowns (which werent, in the end, followed) gave a death toll for R=2.6 (the highest modelled; it turned out to be higher than that) of between 12,000 and 120,000, depending on the breadth of measures followed and how hair-trigger we were on the lockdowns.
It gave a wide breadth of options for policymakers (from exercising all of them when new weekly covid-diagnosed ICU cases exceeded 60 and maintained until they dropped to only 15 per week - to exercising only three of them and only when new weekly ICU cases from covid exceeded 400).
I think he could be criticised for not being sufficiently pessimistic (R was, in fact, in excess of 3), but the IFRs look pretty close to the now-known levels.
A significant number of deaths have happened as more transmissible Kent variant took hold. I am sure some of the sceptical scientists must have changed their views too in light of this change and new evidence. It doesn't relate to Ferguson's initial prediction from the initial data.
On the other hand his 400,000 deaths was based on 60% (a herd immunity estimate of the country) getting it. Being a hard hearted Machiavellian bastard about this, the Kent variant managed to push us a lot closer to that at the expense of a lot of people’s nearest and dearest. He estimates that 32% of the country has had it. Very very crudely the figures (I think the best estimate for IFR is 0.75% now) do begin to add up.
Also the IFR is a lot lower now than it was originally as we have more treatments available now like Dexamethasone etc
Plus of course the IFR is with full treatment, had the NHS collapsed then the IFR would have shot up significantly.
Had we not had any lockdowns then the IFR would have been more than 1%
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
Most of the experts, sadly, expect another 30,000 dead (so does the increasingly reliable University of Washington model)
As the scientists now know a LOT more about this virus, I am willing to trust them accordingly. I fear you are being optimistic, but let's hope you are right.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Yes, that's fair. The pubs will open oop north, but for restaurants it will be harder. The ones that serve cold lunches to hardy walkers will do fine, but city centre curry houses less so.
I still reckon many will try
See here;s the thing.
When Ron de Santis refused to lockdown Florida through the winter, America's scientists predicted Armageddon. Hospitals overwhelmed. Massive casualties.
Unlike manchild Johnson, De santis refused to be intimidated. And guess what. It never happened. Florida is number 27 on the US states death list, despite being one of America's retirement capitals. Its behind almost all the blue states with their lockdown frenzies.
Did Florida, or South Dakota for that matter, or some other deep red states 'let the disease rip?' nope. They just went a different route. A much lighter touch route.
Its never really been about 'doing nothing'. Its about how appropriate the response of government is.
Ignoring the fact that Florida did have a lockdown just as tough as, if not tougher than, most other US states during the first wave. You are being very selective in your choice of data.
Also ignoring the fact that a lot of Florida's cities and counties imposed much greater measures than were mandated by the state.
Presumably the scientists didn't take that into account when they predicted a catastrophe in Florida, either. How remiss of them.
Well that is me all Pfizered up. Very very well organised and no issues at all.
Second jab due on 11th May. Which is actually 11 weeks from now rather than 12.
No adverse effects so far, no sign of mind control and of course I do believe that Bill Gates (all hail the great Gates) should be president of the world.... wait, I didn't mean to write that....
Hurrah, I also had the Pfizer one, my only side effect was a soreness in the jabbed arm for 48/72 hours.
I would've had Pfizer if the Surgery had been open... not sure what I will get now.. is there really any difference
Both offer close to 100% protection against hospitalisation, serious infection and death (from Covid).
Pfizer is slightly more efficacious at stopping you from getting the sniffles.
If there was unlimited supply, you'd probably choose to give everyone Pfizer. But there isn't, and AstraZeneca is definitely efficacious.
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
Met a Labour voting friend today for a pleasant stroll in the park. Amongst the crocuses and daffodils! And in the sun!
He ranted for a bit about Boris killing half of Britain, then I asked him about Starmer.
"Useless. Boring" was his verdict, and my friend is on the Blairite wing (he hated Corbyn)
Starmer has a problem if he is losing these people
Don't blame me, I voted for Nandy
Nandy is, arguably, even more boring. And painfully, painfully Woke.
Somewhere deep in the Labour party there is a woman who will be their next leader, and the next Labour PM. I haven't seen her yet, personally
Look up Rosena Allin-Khan
If RAK is elected then CCHQ stands ready to recycle its anti-Corbyn "two Es at A-level" propaganda. Cameron was the best ever PPE student, doncherknow, and Boris was the brightest at Eton. Otoh, CCHQ will have attack lines prepared for all Labour's leaders.
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
Can anyone please explain why Friday is better than Wednesday from Salmond's point of view. Is something likely to happen on Thursday that will change anything?
Presumably because it will give the Committee time to clarify to Salmond's legal team exactly what subjects (already in the public domain) he must steer clear of to avoid criminal proceedings. In the absence of this clarification, would you testify?
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
Most of the experts, sadly, expect another 30,000 dead (so does the increasingly reliable University of Washington model)
As the scientists now know a LOT more about this virus, I am willing to trust them accordingly. I fear you are being optimistic, but let's hope you are right.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Yes, that's fair. The pubs will open oop north, but for restaurants it will be harder. The ones that serve cold lunches to hardy walkers will do fine, but city centre curry houses less so.
I still reckon many will try
See here;s the thing.
When Ron de Santis refused to lockdown Florida through the winter, America's scientists predicted Armageddon. Hospitals overwhelmed. Massive casualties.
Unlike manchild Johnson, De santis refused to be intimidated. And guess what. It never happened. Florida is number 27 on the US states death list, despite being one of America's retirement capitals. Its behind almost all the blue states with their lockdown frenzies.
Did Florida, or South Dakota for that matter, or some other deep red states 'let the disease rip?' nope. They just went a different route. A much lighter touch route.
Its never really been about 'doing nothing'. Its about how appropriate the response of government is.
Ignoring the fact that Florida did have a lockdown just as tough as, if not tougher than, most other US states during the first wave. You are being very selective in your choice of data.
Comments
The movement in this particular subsample being purely from nationalist to unionist is very interesting, as it would tally with recent polls showing support for independence gradually falling. And the big drop in SNP support would indicate the Salmond/Sturgeon mess is finally being noticed by the public - something I think most PBers expected to have happened already.
As has been said, the next full Scottish poll will be interesting indeed.
Mind you at least you have stopped going on about Sweden now that that little experiment has failed.
Seems like it.
I don’t think she’s ever admitted how horrifically wrong she was; she’s doubled down with the Great Barrington loonies.
The coldest weather I have sat outside in was one December night with snow on the ground and someone measured it at 261K (-12C for those who can't cope with proper metric units). The large fire helped, as did the whisky (or in my case whiskey).
If we've got to said crossover then that would probably suggest around 65...
Or all three.
But to use Scotland as example, a proper Scottish poll has around 1,000 respondents, which gives a margin of error of 3.1 but the margin of error on a sub sample of 154 is 7.9.
A MOE of 3.1 generally provides accurate results, polls with an MOE of 7.9 do not.
It really is possible to have a smart phone and not be addicted to it.
But the 154 won't even be properly weighted so the MoE could be even worse than 7.9 ?
Don't blame democracy. The voters are making their choice. If that's ghastly you're saying the voters are ghastly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/56172067
Germany is in a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic, Chancellor Angela Merkel told lawmakers in her conservative party, two sources at the meeting told Reuters on Tuesday.
“We are now in the third wave,” they quoted her as saying and said she warned that any easing of lockdown measures introduced late last year and extended until March 7 would have to be done carefully and gradually.
The closure of all non-essential businesses and border controls with Austria and the Czech Republic, where there have been outbreaks linked to a more infectious variant of the virus, have helped Germany bring down new daily COVID-19 infections.
But a slow vaccination roll-out and the risk of major outbreaks of fast-spreading variants already identified in Germany could make any easing of restrictions more difficult.
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2AN1M3
Plus of course the IFR is with full treatment, had the NHS collapsed then the IFR would have shot up significantly.
Had we not had any lockdowns then the IFR would have been more than 1%
NEW THREAD
Pfizer is slightly more efficacious at stopping you from getting the sniffles.
If there was unlimited supply, you'd probably choose to give everyone Pfizer. But there isn't, and AstraZeneca is definitely efficacious.
Remember, though, it can only answer you if you say "Hey Cortana".
Honestly, I think smartphones are the work of Satan at times.
I only ever feel I'm truly free when I don't have it with me (which stresses my wife immensely).
--AS
"I am mean one Mr Grinch!"