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The UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Du

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited February 23 in General
imageThe UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Dublin along the way? – politicalbetting.com

Above is the chart on the Smarkets market over where Joe Biden’s first international visit as president will be.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 11,026
    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,737
    On excess mortality - quite a strange thing from Euromomo showing very little excess mortality in Wales and a lot more in England. Wondering why that would be - seems to contradict all the other data showing Wales has been badly hit by COVID.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
  • eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,200

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 90,119
    edited February 23
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,200

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    Whatever. I'm not that bothered who Biden goes to see. If he wanted to go to Dublin, that's his business.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 82,645
    I agree, if the Biden administration has a special relationship with anyone it will be Ireland and he will likely go there first on his way to the G7 in Cornwall.

    Biden will have a solid working relationship with the UK but without the affection for and family ties he has with Ireland.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,265
    Not in this market but checking the rules might be advisable. If Biden changes planes, but it's not an official stop does that count ?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,074
    rkrkrk said:

    On excess mortality - quite a strange thing from Euromomo showing very little excess mortality in Wales and a lot more in England. Wondering why that would be - seems to contradict all the other data showing Wales has been badly hit by COVID.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

    Isn't z-score (that's the only country breadkdown I can see, apologies if I've missed a country excess death measure) dependent on standard deviation (number of standard deviations?). If so, Wales, being a smaller country may have a relatively larger standard deviation (smaller 'sample' so more natural variability, so any given increase could have a smaller z-score compared to the larger country - England - 'sample' with a relatively smaller standard deviation)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,915
    About 10th.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 10,504
    Probably around where LFC will finish.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 609
    edited February 23
    rkrkrk said:

    On excess mortality - quite a strange thing from Euromomo showing very little excess mortality in Wales and a lot more in England. Wondering why that would be - seems to contradict all the other data showing Wales has been badly hit by COVID.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

    Wales never suffered the Kent covid surge that England did. The case numbers peaked in Wales in Mid December (17th) and so the deaths peak naturally followed that (1st Jan).
  • MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    Except that Boris was the first call after the election and the first call after inauguration. I'm not sure that the Biden team is as bothered about it as you seem to be.
    Wait until you find out how many people were triggered bothered by Biden's choice of decor for the Oval Office, now that was funny.
  • tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    So you've been parroting for the past four months, repeatedly harking back to the same old Obama-era grudges.

    Meanwhile the real world moves on and leaves you behind. Biden called Boris first, the two have been working together for months now on surely the 3 "big C" international issues: Covid, Climate and China.

    The idea he's going to dump that for some tabloid trash from years ago is pathetic. Biden is not pathetic.
    About China, hold that thought.

    Boris Johnson says he is 'fervently Sinophile,' seeks to improve China-UK economic ties.

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-22/UK-PM-Boris-Johnson-says-he-is-fervently-Sinophile--Y5Kvctu9Ik/index.html
  • As incoming President, Biden will have seen:

    - an EU that has cozied up to China
    - an EU that has cozied up to Russia
    - an EU that has put a hard border across the island of Ireland, however "mistakenly"

    - a UK that has applied to join the CP-TPP to broaden its world trade base
    - a UK that has taken a firm stand against China in IT and security
    - a UK that has taken the vaccine rollout very seriously in battling Covid

    Where do you think the Biden administration thinks its friends currently reside?

    Also didn't Biden recently pump 4 billion into Covax that the UK has been very disproportionately funding until now and even after "Team Europe" bumped up its amount it is still very short on a proportional basis relative to the UK and USA?
  • Wish me luck, I have to read the Bankers' Books Evidence Act of 1879 into a 2021 context.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    So you've been parroting for the past four months, repeatedly harking back to the same old Obama-era grudges.

    Meanwhile the real world moves on and leaves you behind. Biden called Boris first, the two have been working together for months now on surely the 3 "big C" international issues: Covid, Climate and China.

    The idea he's going to dump that for some tabloid trash from years ago is pathetic. Biden is not pathetic.
    About China, hold that thought.

    Boris Johnson says he is 'fervently Sinophile,' seeks to improve China-UK economic ties.

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-22/UK-PM-Boris-Johnson-says-he-is-fervently-Sinophile--Y5Kvctu9Ik/index.html
    Chinese state news based on an anonymous source at The Guardian. Doesn't pass the sniff test.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    Except that Boris was the first call after the election and the first call after inauguration. I'm not sure that the Biden team is as bothered about it as you seem to be.
    Wait until you find out how many people were triggered bothered by Biden's choice of decor for the Oval Office, now that was funny.
    As funny as those triggered by Boris on Obama being Kenyan, I guess?
  • MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    So you've been parroting for the past four months, repeatedly harking back to the same old Obama-era grudges.

    Meanwhile the real world moves on and leaves you behind. Biden called Boris first, the two have been working together for months now on surely the 3 "big C" international issues: Covid, Climate and China.

    The idea he's going to dump that for some tabloid trash from years ago is pathetic. Biden is not pathetic.
    About China, hold that thought.

    Boris Johnson says he is 'fervently Sinophile,' seeks to improve China-UK economic ties.

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-22/UK-PM-Boris-Johnson-says-he-is-fervently-Sinophile--Y5Kvctu9Ik/index.html
    Chinese state news based on an anonymous source at The Guardian. Doesn't pass the sniff test.
    The Downing Street staff declined on more than one occasion to deny that story.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    So you've been parroting for the past four months, repeatedly harking back to the same old Obama-era grudges.

    Meanwhile the real world moves on and leaves you behind. Biden called Boris first, the two have been working together for months now on surely the 3 "big C" international issues: Covid, Climate and China.

    The idea he's going to dump that for some tabloid trash from years ago is pathetic. Biden is not pathetic.
    About China, hold that thought.

    Boris Johnson says he is 'fervently Sinophile,' seeks to improve China-UK economic ties.

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-22/UK-PM-Boris-Johnson-says-he-is-fervently-Sinophile--Y5Kvctu9Ik/index.html
    Chinese state news based on an anonymous source at The Guardian. Doesn't pass the sniff test.
    The Downing Street staff declined on more than one occasion to deny that story.
    Why give it any oxygen with a denial?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 609
    edited February 23
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    Except that Boris was the first call after the election and the first call after inauguration. I'm not sure that the Biden team is as bothered about it as you seem to be.
    Wait until you find out how many people were triggered bothered by Biden's choice of decor for the Oval Office, now that was funny.
    As funny as those triggered by Boris on Obama being Kenyan, I guess?
    slightly different I think, the lack of a churchill bust doesn't disqualify you from standing for the presidency.

    :smile:
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 3,643

    As incoming President, Biden will have seen:

    - an EU that has cozied up to China
    - an EU that has cozied up to Russia
    - an EU that has put a hard border across the island of Ireland, however "mistakenly"

    - a UK that has applied to join the CP-TPP to broaden its world trade base
    - a UK that has taken a firm stand against China in IT and security
    - a UK that has taken the vaccine rollout very seriously in battling Covid

    Where do you think the Biden administration thinks its friends currently reside?

    The thesis that Biden will waste his time feuding with the UK relies on the rather demeaning assumption that he is even more of a petulant man-child than his predecessor. I don't think he is at all, so I suspect the papers will be full of quotes about the 'surprisingly warm' nature of his first face-to-face meeting with Boris when it happens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,767
    Pulpstar said:

    Not in this market but checking the rules might be advisable. If Biden changes planes, but it's not an official stop does that count ?

    He ain't going to change from Air Force 1 to Ryan Air!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 90,119
    edited February 23
    Before I depart, I disagree with OGH about laying the UK in this market.

    The Secret Service aren't going to let Biden go anywhere that isn't at the top of the vaccination charts, ignoring the microstates, that realistically leaves the UK and Israel, and Biden isn't going to Israel first whilst Netanyahu is PM, so that realistically leaves the UK.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Not in this market but checking the rules might be advisable. If Biden changes planes, but it's not an official stop does that count ?

    He ain't going to change from Air Force 1 to Ryan Air!
    Though if he did, it would still be called Air Force 1 wouldn't it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,767

    As incoming President, Biden will have seen:

    - an EU that has cozied up to China
    - an EU that has cozied up to Russia
    - an EU that has put a hard border across the island of Ireland, however "mistakenly"

    - a UK that has applied to join the CP-TPP to broaden its world trade base
    - a UK that has taken a firm stand against China in IT and security
    - a UK that has taken the vaccine rollout very seriously in battling Covid

    Where do you think the Biden administration thinks its friends currently reside?

    The thesis that Biden will waste his time feuding with the UK relies on the rather demeaning assumption that he is even more of a petulant man-child than his predecessor. I don't think he is at all, so I suspect the papers will be full of quotes about the 'surprisingly warm' nature of his first face-to-face meeting with Boris when it happens.
    But that meet can't happen until Boris gets a haircut!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 18,662

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    So you've been parroting for the past four months, repeatedly harking back to the same old Obama-era grudges.

    Meanwhile the real world moves on and leaves you behind. Biden called Boris first, the two have been working together for months now on surely the 3 "big C" international issues: Covid, Climate and China.

    The idea he's going to dump that for some tabloid trash from years ago is pathetic. Biden is not pathetic.
    Yep, tabloid trash. It's a matter of great regret to many that our PM has authored so much of it in his time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850
    I wonder whether Boris will get his vaccine live on TV. I think it would be a good idea, his turn must be coming up soon.
  • rkrkrk said:

    On excess mortality - quite a strange thing from Euromomo showing very little excess mortality in Wales and a lot more in England. Wondering why that would be - seems to contradict all the other data showing Wales has been badly hit by COVID.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

    Wales did badly following their circuit breaker, but deaths have fallen steadily since then.

    England had a lot of cases in December and early January, leading to lots of deaths in January and early February. The hugeness of the spike is a distinctly English phenomenon.

    https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=e92000001&areas=s92000003&areas=w92000004&areas=n92000002&areas=deu&areas=irl&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

    OK, some of that is bad luck of having Kent Covid develop in... Kent, I guess. But it was first identified in late September. It was obvious towards the end of the November lockdown that something bad was going on (cases in the SE were failing to fall in the way they should have done and were elsewhere). And yet London started December in Tier 2, and Christmas was on until a few days before Christmas, and far too many schools remained open for far too long, and then there was the Twixtmas gap before we went back into lockdown. I think that was distinctively English.

    With hindsight, that was all calamitous. Question is- was it calamitous with reasonable foresight? Personally, I think it was. You're in a pandemic. You've had recent experience of exponential growth and the value of applying restrictions quickly so you can get a handle on what's going on. To faff the way England did between early December and early January was bad government.

    I accept that mileages vary on this.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,265
    MaxPB said:

    I wonder whether Boris will get his vaccine live on TV. I think it would be a good idea, his turn must be coming up soon.

    Perhaps even more importantly there will be a whole heap of BAME (Yes I hate the term too) celebrities whose turn must be coming up also.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 52,262
    MaxPB said:

    I wonder whether Boris will get his vaccine live on TV. I think it would be a good idea, his turn must be coming up soon.

    Cue a thousand sob stories about how I am slightly older than Boris but still haven't been offered one.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,051
    I am often amused by how the US is described as a "cultural melting pot" where immigrants of all backgrounds are easily assimilated into some form of American Way, but yet someone like Biden, who's something like a fourth generation American pretty much whichever branch of his family tree you look at, is constantly being described as "proud of his Irish roots" and articles like this can be relevant.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 6,293
    Pulpstar said:

    Not in this market but checking the rules might be advisable. If Biden changes planes, but it's not an official stop does that count ?



    The VC-25 easily has the legs for ADW-STN but a tactical tech stop in Shannon could happen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,354
    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.

  • eekeek Posts: 11,026
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder whether Boris will get his vaccine live on TV. I think it would be a good idea, his turn must be coming up soon.

    Cue a thousand sob stories about how I am slightly older than Boris but still haven't been offered one.
    Yep - I cannot see any political benefit from doing so.

    However Priti Patel and others should do it on TV as we need to demonstrate it's safe to minorities who are refusing it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,200

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.

    I guess it depends partly on the psyche of the nation, but NZ could face this sort of nonsense on steroids.
  • The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.

    The lunatics who think death is something that can be avoided completely and forever absolutely astound me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,265
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder whether Boris will get his vaccine live on TV. I think it would be a good idea, his turn must be coming up soon.

    Cue a thousand sob stories about how I am slightly older than Boris but still haven't been offered one.
    Yep - I cannot see any political benefit from doing so.

    However Priti Patel and others should do it on TV as we need to demonstrate it's safe to minorities who are refusing it.
    Priti is 48 though ! Early May ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 46,532
    UK third in absolute terms, 8th in proportionate terms (Spain has 3 days data)

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 10,504
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder whether Boris will get his vaccine live on TV. I think it would be a good idea, his turn must be coming up soon.

    Perhaps even more importantly there will be a whole heap of BAME (Yes I hate the term too) celebrities whose turn must be coming up also.
    Diane Abbott had hers yesterday. Not that she's a celebrity, mind.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.

    Tbh, I don't think it's a very popular view. Everyone I know agrees that it won't be possible to live in a zero COVID world without constantly needing to have emergency lockdowns. That's not living.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,265
    tlg86 said:

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.

    I guess it depends partly on the psyche of the nation, but NZ could face this sort of nonsense on steroids.
    New Zealand is quite unlocked at the moment though (Aside from international travel). I think they'll replace quarantine with a vaccination + negative test requirement for incomers once they're all vaccinated in time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,354

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.

    The lunatics who think death is something that can be avoided completely and forever absolutely astound me.
    I'm interested though whether this is a 'thing' that all epidemiologists seem to possess or at least a big majority or are we just seeing the extremists popping up on the media?

    Maybe they spend too much time modelling and not enough time with actual humans?

  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 791

    rkrkrk said:

    On excess mortality - quite a strange thing from Euromomo showing very little excess mortality in Wales and a lot more in England. Wondering why that would be - seems to contradict all the other data showing Wales has been badly hit by COVID.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

    Wales never suffered the Kent covid surge that England did. The case numbers peaked in Wales in Mid December (17th) and so the deaths peak naturally followed that (1st Jan).
    To be clear though, the new variant now is the clear majority across the UK according to ONS data. In Wales and Scotland it has been little better than flat through the lockdown, while old variants are fading away. Which means there's plenty of potential for a flare up with loosening restrictions.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1200/countrybyvar/index.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,117

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    Boris was citing this Guardian article written several years earlier:

    "It also sharpens the intriguing question of whether the president's dual colonial inheritance – of Kenyan and Irish ancestry – is helping reshape America's supposedly "special relationship" with Britain.

    That phrase, "special relationship", was coined by Winston Churchill, whose bronze bust, sculpted by Sir Jacob Epstein, was prominently displayed in the Oval Office. When Obama moved in, the statuette was politely returned to the British embassy as surplus to decorative requirements."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2009/mar/04/obama-irish-brown-special
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 6,293

    Pulpstar said:

    Not in this market but checking the rules might be advisable. If Biden changes planes, but it's not an official stop does that count ?

    He ain't going to change from Air Force 1 to Ryan Air!
    Though if he did, it would still be called Air Force 1 wouldn't it?
    No, in the unlikely event that happened it would retain its Ryan Air callsign. AF1, Marine 1, Navy 1, etc are only for US military movements.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,767

    UK third in absolute terms, 8th in proportionate terms (Spain has 3 days data)

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


    Some countries seem to do multi-day data dumps though.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,274
    After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.

    Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?

    What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.

    Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.

    More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.

    But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,200
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.

    I guess it depends partly on the psyche of the nation, but NZ could face this sort of nonsense on steroids.
    New Zealand is quite unlocked at the moment though (Aside from international travel). I think they'll replace quarantine with a vaccination + negative test requirement for incomers once they're all vaccinated in time.
    Good point. But equally they're unlocked because they are at zero COVID. It'll be interesting to see how they time the relaxation of measures for people coming in from abroad.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,989
    Miss Vance, I feel sorry for Winston Smith. He must be very overworked by the Scottish Government.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 723
    Latest twist in the Salmond vs Sturgeon imbroglio:

    "Scotland's prosecution service has raised "grave concerns" over the Scottish Parliament's decision to publish documents from Alex Salmond.

    "The papers name people Mr Salmond alleges were part of a "malicious" attempt to remove him from public life."

    Salmond due to give evidence tomorrow...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56167956
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Not in this market but checking the rules might be advisable. If Biden changes planes, but it's not an official stop does that count ?

    He ain't going to change from Air Force 1 to Ryan Air!
    Though if he did, it would still be called Air Force 1 wouldn't it?
    No, in the unlikely event that happened it would retain its Ryan Air callsign. AF1, Marine 1, Navy 1, etc are only for US military movements.
    Oh, I thought any plane the POTUS was on was called AF1.

    So that would apply to any USAF plane but not a commercial one?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 7,229
    rkrkrk said:

    On excess mortality - quite a strange thing from Euromomo showing very little excess mortality in Wales and a lot more in England. Wondering why that would be - seems to contradict all the other data showing Wales has been badly hit by COVID.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

    It's the Drakeford Effect.

    Everything he touches turns to gold.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 46,532
    It's going to be fun seeing what the Crown Office's "grave concerns" were, since the un-redacted one must have been downloaded many times.....

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,051

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.

    The lunatics who think death is something that can be avoided completely and forever absolutely astound me.
    I'm interested though whether this is a 'thing' that all epidemiologists seem to possess or at least a big majority or are we just seeing the extremists popping up on the media?

    Maybe they spend too much time modelling and not enough time with actual humans?

    I think they're just unused to having to make real-world decisions that actually matter.

    Personally I'm very relieved that the advice I give as a result of the hugely complex models I don't fully understand, can't kill anyone. I think I might also become extremely risk-averse if the possibility ever arose that it might.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,200

    It's going to be fun seeing what the Crown Office's "grave concerns" were, since the un-redacted one must have been downloaded many times.....

    Would be interested in the views of @DavidL on this...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,117

    As incoming President, Biden will have seen:

    - an EU that has cozied up to China
    - an EU that has cozied up to Russia
    - an EU that has put a hard border across the island of Ireland, however "mistakenly"

    - a UK that has applied to join the CP-TPP to broaden its world trade base
    - a UK that has taken a firm stand against China in IT and security
    - a UK that has taken the vaccine rollout very seriously in battling Covid

    Where do you think the Biden administration thinks its friends currently reside?

    The thesis that Biden will waste his time feuding with the UK relies on the rather demeaning assumption that he is even more of a petulant man-child than his predecessor. I don't think he is at all, so I suspect the papers will be full of quotes about the 'surprisingly warm' nature of his first face-to-face meeting with Boris when it happens.
    I think Biden is complex.

    He's gone full Woke (probably he doesn't really understand it at heart, but knows it's important to the next generation in the Dem base - so he does it) is attached to Ireland, and is obviously an enthusiastic internationalist, but he also backed Britain unequivocally in the Falklands War, and he likes trains and is proud of it.

    I think that means he'll back those who support his foreign policy objectives. I don't think he'll do bitterness and vengeance because you don't survive that long in building a career through bipartisanship in Congress with that approach.

    He's also known Bibi for decades, and has supported Israel for the same, and he finally called him a week ago so I think that "snub" was probably overblown, although there was clearly a gentle message there.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 46,532
    When the not the Boris roadmap will be revealed. They must have been up all night working on differences:

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,506
    edited February 23
    Pulpstar said:

    Screw starting to tighten on care staff refuseniks...



    Quite right too, care home residents will unfortunately be amongst those who are least likely to respond to vaccination by virtue of having weaker immune systems. All staff must be vaccinated.
    Agree. More generally, we are in a national emergency that has blighted lives of everyone for over a year. The vaccine is the only hope of a route back to normality. The workplace is probably the most significant vector of transmission of all.

    So at a minimum the government should legislate to:
    1. Require employers to change contracts of employment to require their employees to be vaccinated, or otherwise resign, in any specifically defined workplace environment where Covid outbreaks are likely to lead to relatively high levels of deaths and hospital admissions (e.g. care homes, hospitals.)
    2. In any contract of employment in all settings, end the risk to employers to stop changes to contracts to require vaccination potentially opening up claims of breach of contract/constructive dismissal by refusniks.
    3. Place a duty on all employers to conduct an assessment of the risk of transmission within or between their workforce, and to require vaccination of employees as a condition of employment unless that assessment showed that risks could be adequately minimised by control measures, and to explicitly place a liability on employers for damages arising any Covid outbreak that could be shown to have arisen from failure of such documented control measures.
    4. Extend the above to agency staff as well as directly employed staff.

    Result: Pretty well all employers move to require vaccination to avoid breaking the law or the risk of being sued.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 7,229

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.


    The deep flaw in the Zero-Covidians' thinking is that if Zero Covid is the right policy, then so is Zero Influenza and Zero Pneumonia. Hell, why stop there? Zero Common Cold also sounds brilliant.

    They need to be held to account on this, rather than the media wheeling them out uncritically.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 609
    edited February 23
    Gaussian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    On excess mortality - quite a strange thing from Euromomo showing very little excess mortality in Wales and a lot more in England. Wondering why that would be - seems to contradict all the other data showing Wales has been badly hit by COVID.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

    Wales never suffered the Kent covid surge that England did. The case numbers peaked in Wales in Mid December (17th) and so the deaths peak naturally followed that (1st Jan).
    To be clear though, the new variant now is the clear majority across the UK according to ONS data. In Wales and Scotland it has been little better than flat through the lockdown, while old variants are fading away. Which means there's plenty of potential for a flare up with loosening restrictions.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1200/countrybyvar/index.html
    oic. Perhaps the fact that Wales went on lockdown well before England meant that the Kent didn't have a chance to grow out of control? I'm not sure.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 7,229
    tlg86 said:

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.

    I guess it depends partly on the psyche of the nation, but NZ could face this sort of nonsense on steroids.

    Indeed. The key question for Jacienda is: "When are you going to open your borders?" Because, as soon as she does, the Zero Covid strategy collapses. I suppose NZ could keep its borders closed forever, although then nobody would ever visit it and its own citizens would be endlessly marooned abroad.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 13,103

    Wish me luck, I have to read the Bankers' Books Evidence Act of 1879 into a 2021 context.

    Thoughts and prayers
  • When the not the Boris roadmap will be revealed. They must have been up all night working on differences:

    Copy.
    Paste.
    Tweak.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,904

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.


    The deep flaw in the Zero-Covidians' thinking is that if Zero Covid is the right policy, then so is Zero Influenza and Zero Pneumonia. Hell, why stop there? Zero Common Cold also sounds brilliant.

    They need to be held to account on this, rather than the media wheeling them out uncritically.
    People don't generally die from the Common Code (why was it even necessary to say that?)
    And yes, Zero Pneumonia is a good policy.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,904

    As incoming President, Biden will have seen:

    - an EU that has cozied up to China
    - an EU that has cozied up to Russia
    - an EU that has put a hard border across the island of Ireland, however "mistakenly"

    - a UK that has applied to join the CP-TPP to broaden its world trade base
    - a UK that has taken a firm stand against China in IT and security
    - a UK that has taken the vaccine rollout very seriously in battling Covid

    Where do you think the Biden administration thinks its friends currently reside?

    The thesis that Biden will waste his time feuding with the UK relies on the rather demeaning assumption that he is even more of a petulant man-child than his predecessor. I don't think he is at all, so I suspect the papers will be full of quotes about the 'surprisingly warm' nature of his first face-to-face meeting with Boris when it happens.
    I think Biden is complex.

    He's gone full Woke (probably he doesn't really understand it at heart, but knows it's important to the next generation in the Dem base - so he does it) is attached to Ireland, and is obviously an enthusiastic internationalist, but he also backed Britain unequivocally in the Falklands War, and he likes trains and is proud of it.

    I think that means he'll back those who support his foreign policy objectives. I don't think he'll do bitterness and vengeance because you don't survive that long in building a career through bipartisanship in Congress with that approach.

    He's also known Bibi for decades, and has supported Israel for the same, and he finally called him a week ago so I think that "snub" was probably overblown, although there was clearly a gentle message there.
    It's so good not to have a maniac as President of the USA.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,274

    Pulpstar said:

    Screw starting to tighten on care staff refuseniks...



    Quite right too, care home residents will unfortunately be amongst those who are least likely to respond to vaccination by virtue of having weaker immune systems. All staff must be vaccinated.
    Agree. More generally, we are in a national emergency that has blighted lives of everyone for over a year. The vaccine is the only hope of a route back to normality. The workplace is probably the most significant vector of transmission of all.

    So at a minimum the government should legislate to:
    1. Require employers to change contracts of employment to require their employees to be vaccinated, or otherwise resign, in any specifically defined workplace environment where Covid outbreaks are likely to lead to relatively high levels of deaths and hospital admissions (e.g. care homes, hospitals.)
    2. In any contract of employment in all settings, end the risk to employers to stop changes to contracts to require vaccination potentially opening up claims of breach of contract/constructive dismissal by refusniks.
    3. Place a duty on all employers to conduct an assessment of the risk of transmission within or between their workforce, and to require vaccination of employees as a condition of employment unless that assessment showed that risks could be adequately minimised by control measures, and to explicitly place a liability on employers for damages arising any Covid outbreak that could be shown to have arisen from failure of such documented control measures.
    4. Extend the above to agency staff as well as directly employed staff.

    Result: Pretty well all employers move to require vaccination to avoid breaking the law or the risk of being sued.
    All broadly sensible but you are going to need to make an exception for women of child-bearing age, many of whom work in care homes and hospitals. AIUI the vaccine is not recommended for those trying to get pregnant. So making it a condition of employment that such women must have one is not on.

    You also - if you are going to force people to have a medicine - need to have no fault compensation paid for by the state for anyone harmed by this, as is the case for other vaccinations I believe.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,996

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    If the Good Friday agreement is important and you don't want any problems at the Glasgow Summit - the politically sensitive approach would be to visit London and return via Dublin.

    I really don't get the idea that you would go there first, it just adds a risk for zero benefit.

    There's zero love for Boris Johnson in the Biden administration because of the PM's comments about Obama's Kenyan heritage which was less of a dog whistle and more of a foghorn to American ears.
    Respect the office, not the holder of the post.
    Something which Boris Johnson failed to do so spectacularly, actions have consequences.

    I mean this is Obama's former Deputy National Security Adviser and someone Biden listened to a lot for his foreign policy staffing.

    So you've been parroting for the past four months, repeatedly harking back to the same old Obama-era grudges.

    Meanwhile the real world moves on and leaves you behind. Biden called Boris first, the two have been working together for months now on surely the 3 "big C" international issues: Covid, Climate and China.

    The idea he's going to dump that for some tabloid trash from years ago is pathetic. Biden is not pathetic.
    About China, hold that thought.

    Boris Johnson says he is 'fervently Sinophile,' seeks to improve China-UK economic ties.

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-22/UK-PM-Boris-Johnson-says-he-is-fervently-Sinophile--Y5Kvctu9Ik/index.html
    I'm not sure what else he would say to a dinner of Chinese business people.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,767

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.


    The deep flaw in the Zero-Covidians' thinking is that if Zero Covid is the right policy, then so is Zero Influenza and Zero Pneumonia. Hell, why stop there? Zero Common Cold also sounds brilliant.

    They need to be held to account on this, rather than the media wheeling them out uncritically.
    People don't generally die from the Common Code (why was it even necessary to say that?)
    And yes, Zero Pneumonia is a good policy.
    Zero Cancer and Zero Heart Disease after that. Leaving us to enjoy 10 years of dementia before our brains give up the ghost and forget how to breathe....

    Something has to get us. Hopefully at the end of a long and productive life and death in our sleep. But it does look like some are chasing immortality.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,506

    When the not the Boris roadmap will be revealed. They must have been up all night working on differences:

    Yes, it's becoming a bit of a parody in all honesty.

    It does question the extent of devolution. I think that the UK government should, in exceptional circumstances, be able to declare a national emergency and for the specific aim of dealing with that emergency temporarily take back powers that would otherwise be devolved.
  • The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.


    The deep flaw in the Zero-Covidians' thinking is that if Zero Covid is the right policy, then so is Zero Influenza and Zero Pneumonia. Hell, why stop there? Zero Common Cold also sounds brilliant.

    They need to be held to account on this, rather than the media wheeling them out uncritically.
    People don't generally die from the Common Code (why was it even necessary to say that?)
    And yes, Zero Pneumonia is a good policy.
    No it isn't, its a stupid soundbite since it isn't achievable. If we were to lockdown until we sustainably achieved Zero Pneumonia it would be devastating not a good policy.

    In order for a policy to be good it has to be achievable. If it isn't achievable, its not SMART.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 7,229

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Not in this market but checking the rules might be advisable. If Biden changes planes, but it's not an official stop does that count ?

    He ain't going to change from Air Force 1 to Ryan Air!
    Though if he did, it would still be called Air Force 1 wouldn't it?
    No, in the unlikely event that happened it would retain its Ryan Air callsign. AF1, Marine 1, Navy 1, etc are only for US military movements.
    Oh, I thought any plane the POTUS was on was called AF1.

    So that would apply to any USAF plane but not a commercial one?
    Is it called Army 1 if he travels by military jeep?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,737



    Isn't z-score (that's the only country breadkdown I can see, apologies if I've missed a country excess death measure) dependent on standard deviation (number of standard deviations?). If so, Wales, being a smaller country may have a relatively larger standard deviation (smaller 'sample' so more natural variability, so any given increase could have a smaller z-score compared to the larger country - England - 'sample' with a relatively smaller standard deviation)

    Thanks for the reply. You're quite right - that's what I'm looking at.

    On the standard deviation point... other small countries seem to have large excess mortality bumps (Scotland, Portugal, Austria, Ireland etc.)?

    And would there really be much variability around population mean once you get into the millions in population terms? I sort of assumed the whole point of choosing Z scores was to make it comparable across countries!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 7,229

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.


    The deep flaw in the Zero-Covidians' thinking is that if Zero Covid is the right policy, then so is Zero Influenza and Zero Pneumonia. Hell, why stop there? Zero Common Cold also sounds brilliant.

    They need to be held to account on this, rather than the media wheeling them out uncritically.
    People don't generally die from the Common Code (why was it even necessary to say that?)
    And yes, Zero Pneumonia is a good policy.

    Zero Influenza?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,996

    As incoming President, Biden will have seen:

    - an EU that has cozied up to China
    - an EU that has cozied up to Russia
    - an EU that has put a hard border across the island of Ireland, however "mistakenly"

    - a UK that has applied to join the CP-TPP to broaden its world trade base
    - a UK that has taken a firm stand against China in IT and security
    - a UK that has taken the vaccine rollout very seriously in battling Covid

    Where do you think the Biden administration thinks its friends currently reside?

    The thesis that Biden will waste his time feuding with the UK relies on the rather demeaning assumption that he is even more of a petulant man-child than his predecessor. I don't think he is at all, so I suspect the papers will be full of quotes about the 'surprisingly warm' nature of his first face-to-face meeting with Boris when it happens.
    I think Biden is complex.

    He's gone full Woke (probably he doesn't really understand it at heart, but knows it's important to the next generation in the Dem base - so he does it) is attached to Ireland, and is obviously an enthusiastic internationalist, but he also backed Britain unequivocally in the Falklands War, and he likes trains and is proud of it.

    I think that means he'll back those who support his foreign policy objectives. I don't think he'll do bitterness and vengeance because you don't survive that long in building a career through bipartisanship in Congress with that approach.

    He's also known Bibi for decades, and has supported Israel for the same, and he finally called him a week ago so I think that "snub" was probably overblown, although there was clearly a gentle message there.
    I don't get the impression that he's with it enough to be guided by such complex calculations. He'll flash his veneers, shake hands with people, and hopefully get through the next four years without too many instances of introducing his wife to people as his uncle Horatio.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,767

    Wish me luck, I have to read the Bankers' Books Evidence Act of 1879 into a 2021 context.

    Thoughts and prayers
    He could always job swap with a lady worker in a care home trying for a baby....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 7,229
    edited February 23

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.

    The lunatics who think death is something that can be avoided completely and forever absolutely astound me.
    I'm interested though whether this is a 'thing' that all epidemiologists seem to possess or at least a big majority or are we just seeing the extremists popping up on the media?

    Maybe they spend too much time modelling and not enough time with actual humans?

    Professor Sir John Bell was interviewed on BBC yesterday. He rather colourfully described Zero Covid "as a crackpot idea". "I'm not even sure where the idea came from," he said. "What planet are people on if they think they can eliminate covid from all eight billion people on the planet?"
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,996

    The Zero Covid brigade out and about. This time on Ch 5.


    The deep flaw in the Zero-Covidians' thinking is that if Zero Covid is the right policy, then so is Zero Influenza and Zero Pneumonia. Hell, why stop there? Zero Common Cold also sounds brilliant.

    They need to be held to account on this, rather than the media wheeling them out uncritically.
    People don't generally die from the Common Code (why was it even necessary to say that?)
    And yes, Zero Pneumonia is a good policy.
    Zero Cancer and Zero Heart Disease after that. Leaving us to enjoy 10 years of dementia before our brains give up the ghost and forget how to breathe....

    Something has to get us. Hopefully at the end of a long and productive life and death in our sleep. But it does look like some are chasing immortality.
    Zero cancer and zero heart disease would be great actually - but neither is a disease brought on directly by social contact. Zero dementia would be good too. The human body will naturally reach the end of the road and expire - some say around 120.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,506
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Screw starting to tighten on care staff refuseniks...



    Quite right too, care home residents will unfortunately be amongst those who are least likely to respond to vaccination by virtue of having weaker immune systems. All staff must be vaccinated.
    Agree. More generally, we are in a national emergency that has blighted lives of everyone for over a year. The vaccine is the only hope of a route back to normality. The workplace is probably the most significant vector of transmission of all.

    So at a minimum the government should legislate to:
    1. Require employers to change contracts of employment to require their employees to be vaccinated, or otherwise resign, in any specifically defined workplace environment where Covid outbreaks are likely to lead to relatively high levels of deaths and hospital admissions (e.g. care homes, hospitals.)
    2. In any contract of employment in all settings, end the risk to employers to stop changes to contracts to require vaccination potentially opening up claims of breach of contract/constructive dismissal by refusniks.
    3. Place a duty on all employers to conduct an assessment of the risk of transmission within or between their workforce, and to require vaccination of employees as a condition of employment unless that assessment showed that risks could be adequately minimised by control measures, and to explicitly place a liability on employers for damages arising any Covid outbreak that could be shown to have arisen from failure of such documented control measures.
    4. Extend the above to agency staff as well as directly employed staff.

    Result: Pretty well all employers move to require vaccination to avoid breaking the law or the risk of being sued.
    All broadly sensible but you are going to need to make an exception for women of child-bearing age, many of whom work in care homes and hospitals. AIUI the vaccine is not recommended for those trying to get pregnant. So making it a condition of employment that such women must have one is not on.

    You also - if you are going to force people to have a medicine - need to have no fault compensation paid for by the state for anyone harmed by this, as is the case for other vaccinations I believe.
    Of course there need to be named exceptions, but in specific circumstances rather than just for the whim of the employee.

    Technically, you are not forcing people to have a vaccination, but rather forcing people of working age to make a choice between having a vaccination or significantly restricting their employment options.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 25,850
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Screw starting to tighten on care staff refuseniks...



    Quite right too, care home residents will unfortunately be amongst those who are least likely to respond to vaccination by virtue of having weaker immune systems. All staff must be vaccinated.
    Agree. More generally, we are in a national emergency that has blighted lives of everyone for over a year. The vaccine is the only hope of a route back to normality. The workplace is probably the most significant vector of transmission of all.

    So at a minimum the government should legislate to:
    1. Require employers to change contracts of employment to require their employees to be vaccinated, or otherwise resign, in any specifically defined workplace environment where Covid outbreaks are likely to lead to relatively high levels of deaths and hospital admissions (e.g. care homes, hospitals.)
    2. In any contract of employment in all settings, end the risk to employers to stop changes to contracts to require vaccination potentially opening up claims of breach of contract/constructive dismissal by refusniks.
    3. Place a duty on all employers to conduct an assessment of the risk of transmission within or between their workforce, and to require vaccination of employees as a condition of employment unless that assessment showed that risks could be adequately minimised by control measures, and to explicitly place a liability on employers for damages arising any Covid outbreak that could be shown to have arisen from failure of such documented control measures.
    4. Extend the above to agency staff as well as directly employed staff.

    Result: Pretty well all employers move to require vaccination to avoid breaking the law or the risk of being sued.
    All broadly sensible but you are going to need to make an exception for women of child-bearing age, many of whom work in care homes and hospitals. AIUI the vaccine is not recommended for those trying to get pregnant. So making it a condition of employment that such women must have one is not on.

    You also - if you are going to force people to have a medicine - need to have no fault compensation paid for by the state for anyone harmed by this, as is the case for other vaccinations I believe.
    That recommdation on pregnant women is due to lack of current evidence to the contrary. The US are conducting a study on it and so far there are no issues with the Pfizer vaccine, I expect that will be the same for the others too. I think a study in Israel has already showed that giving pregnant women gives the baby antibodies too so it's probably beneficial once we've proved there are no adverse effects and the vaccine will become a recommendation for pregnant women and women looking to have a baby in the near future.

    On the last point all three approved vaccines have been added to the vaccine damage programme for the reasons you outline, happily there haven't been any serious enough reactions to it to warrant it's use.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 7,229

    As incoming President, Biden will have seen:

    - an EU that has cozied up to China
    - an EU that has cozied up to Russia
    - an EU that has put a hard border across the island of Ireland, however "mistakenly"

    - a UK that has applied to join the CP-TPP to broaden its world trade base
    - a UK that has taken a firm stand against China in IT and security
    - a UK that has taken the vaccine rollout very seriously in battling Covid

    Where do you think the Biden administration thinks its friends currently reside?

    The thesis that Biden will waste his time feuding with the UK relies on the rather demeaning assumption that he is even more of a petulant man-child than his predecessor. I don't think he is at all, so I suspect the papers will be full of quotes about the 'surprisingly warm' nature of his first face-to-face meeting with Boris when it happens.
    I think Biden is complex.

    He's gone full Woke (probably he doesn't really understand it at heart, but knows it's important to the next generation in the Dem base - so he does it) is attached to Ireland, and is obviously an enthusiastic internationalist, but he also backed Britain unequivocally in the Falklands War, and he likes trains and is proud of it.

    I think that means he'll back those who support his foreign policy objectives. I don't think he'll do bitterness and vengeance because you don't survive that long in building a career through bipartisanship in Congress with that approach.

    He's also known Bibi for decades, and has supported Israel for the same, and he finally called him a week ago so I think that "snub" was probably overblown, although there was clearly a gentle message there.
    How is his love of locomotives relevant? I mean, I like trains too but...
  • O/T. Download Alex Salmond's submissions fast before they get taken down and redacted.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,077
    FPT:
    AlistairM said:

    Aren't we the only country in the world where "official" Covid deaths are greater than excess deaths? I have heard plenty of anecdotes where Covid was put as the cause of death when it wasn't really (i.e. dying "with" and not "of").

    It is quite a contrast with other countries where they are trying to hide their excess deaths figure.
    One would assume that excess deaths could well be lower than covid deaths, as the lockdown would affect other non-covid death routes.

    Influenza (and any other virus with a lower R than SARS-CoV-2, such as rotavirus or norovirus) would cause far fewer deaths than normal.
    Road accidents will be well down, as well as workplace accidents likely to be significantly down.
    Causes of increased deaths from lockdown (such as delayed cancer diagnoses) will be largely (albeit not exclusively) lagged by months or even years.

    I'd be totally unsurprised if covid deaths came out as higher than excess deaths everywhere - when they are finally counted properly and reliably.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 6,293
    edited February 23

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Not in this market but checking the rules might be advisable. If Biden changes planes, but it's not an official stop does that count ?

    He ain't going to change from Air Force 1 to Ryan Air!
    Though if he did, it would still be called Air Force 1 wouldn't it?
    No, in the unlikely event that happened it would retain its Ryan Air callsign. AF1, Marine 1, Navy 1, etc are only for US military movements.
    Oh, I thought any plane the POTUS was on was called AF1.

    So that would apply to any USAF plane but not a commercial one?
    Is it called Army 1 if he travels by military jeep?
    The US Army has over 250 fixed wing aircraft he could fly on and if he did it would be Army One.

    It must scorch Johnson's droopy old balls that he has to make do with an Ascot call sign the same as if Crab Air were flying a pallet of baked beans.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,117

    As incoming President, Biden will have seen:

    - an EU that has cozied up to China
    - an EU that has cozied up to Russia
    - an EU that has put a hard border across the island of Ireland, however "mistakenly"

    - a UK that has applied to join the CP-TPP to broaden its world trade base
    - a UK that has taken a firm stand against China in IT and security
    - a UK that has taken the vaccine rollout very seriously in battling Covid

    Where do you think the Biden administration thinks its friends currently reside?

    The thesis that Biden will waste his time feuding with the UK relies on the rather demeaning assumption that he is even more of a petulant man-child than his predecessor. I don't think he is at all, so I suspect the papers will be full of quotes about the 'surprisingly warm' nature of his first face-to-face meeting with Boris when it happens.
    I think Biden is complex.

    He's gone full Woke (probably he doesn't really understand it at heart, but knows it's important to the next generation in the Dem base - so he does it) is attached to Ireland, and is obviously an enthusiastic internationalist, but he also backed Britain unequivocally in the Falklands War, and he likes trains and is proud of it.

    I think that means he'll back those who support his foreign policy objectives. I don't think he'll do bitterness and vengeance because you don't survive that long in building a career through bipartisanship in Congress with that approach.

    He's also known Bibi for decades, and has supported Israel for the same, and he finally called him a week ago so I think that "snub" was probably overblown, although there was clearly a gentle message there.
    How is his love of locomotives relevant? I mean, I like trains too but...
    Because I like trains and I dig it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 64,265
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Screw starting to tighten on care staff refuseniks...



    Quite right too, care home residents will unfortunately be amongst those who are least likely to respond to vaccination by virtue of having weaker immune systems. All staff must be vaccinated.
    Agree. More generally, we are in a national emergency that has blighted lives of everyone for over a year. The vaccine is the only hope of a route back to normality. The workplace is probably the most significant vector of transmission of all.

    So at a minimum the government should legislate to:
    1. Require employers to change contracts of employment to require their employees to be vaccinated, or otherwise resign, in any specifically defined workplace environment where Covid outbreaks are likely to lead to relatively high levels of deaths and hospital admissions (e.g. care homes, hospitals.)
    2. In any contract of employment in all settings, end the risk to employers to stop changes to contracts to require vaccination potentially opening up claims of breach of contract/constructive dismissal by refusniks.
    3. Place a duty on all employers to conduct an assessment of the risk of transmission within or between their workforce, and to require vaccination of employees as a condition of employment unless that assessment showed that risks could be adequately minimised by control measures, and to explicitly place a liability on employers for damages arising any Covid outbreak that could be shown to have arisen from failure of such documented control measures.
    4. Extend the above to agency staff as well as directly employed staff.

    Result: Pretty well all employers move to require vaccination to avoid breaking the law or the risk of being sued.
    All broadly sensible but you are going to need to make an exception for women of child-bearing age, many of whom work in care homes and hospitals. AIUI the vaccine is not recommended for those trying to get pregnant. So making it a condition of employment that such women must have one is not on.

    You also - if you are going to force people to have a medicine - need to have no fault compensation paid for by the state for anyone harmed by this, as is the case for other vaccinations I believe.
    That recommdation on pregnant women is due to lack of current evidence to the contrary. The US are conducting a study on it and so far there are no issues with the Pfizer vaccine, I expect that will be the same for the others too. I think a study in Israel has already showed that giving pregnant women gives the baby antibodies too so it's probably beneficial once we've proved there are no adverse effects and the vaccine will become a recommendation for pregnant women and women looking to have a baby in the near future.

    On the last point all three approved vaccines have been added to the vaccine damage programme for the reasons you outline, happily there haven't been any serious enough reactions to it to warrant it's use.
    There must be some phase 2 participants who have now had a baby and phase 3 (Live vaccine) participants who are pregnant I'd have thought by now. I expect they'll be closely monitored.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,455
    edited February 23

    As incoming President, Biden will have seen:

    - an EU that has cozied up to China
    - an EU that has cozied up to Russia
    - an EU that has put a hard border across the island of Ireland, however "mistakenly"

    - a UK that has applied to join the CP-TPP to broaden its world trade base
    - a UK that has taken a firm stand against China in IT and security
    - a UK that has taken the vaccine rollout very seriously in battling Covid

    Where do you think the Biden administration thinks its friends currently reside?

    The thesis that Biden will waste his time feuding with the UK relies on the rather demeaning assumption that he is even more of a petulant man-child than his predecessor. I don't think he is at all, so I suspect the papers will be full of quotes about the 'surprisingly warm' nature of his first face-to-face meeting with Boris when it happens.
    I think Biden is complex.

    He's gone full Woke (probably he doesn't really understand it at heart, but knows it's important to the next generation in the Dem base - so he does it)....
    I suspect he might understand it rather better than you .

    But I agree with the rest of your comments.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,915
    I thought a Court had ordered it published.

    Have I missed a twister or turnip?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 13,103
    MattW said:

    I thought a Court had ordered it published.

    Have I missed a twister or turnip?
    I have literally no idea what is going on with this anymore.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,274

    Wish me luck, I have to read the Bankers' Books Evidence Act of 1879 into a 2021 context.

    Thoughts and prayers
    He could always job swap with a lady worker in a care home trying for a baby....
    If more young men worked in care homes and more young women in the City, that might be a win-win on very many levels.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,455
    This is a debate which ought to have taken place before last summer.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,354
    More from the Zero Covid brigade:

    This time in the Guardian:

    "we should establish “green zones” – areas where the virus has been judged to be under control, where there is no danger of infection and thus no need for restrictions."

    "The overarching aim should be maintaining minimal cases of Covid-19 (a level of about 10 new cases per 100,000 people a week, for example, might be judged low enough)."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/21/uk-lockdown-health-livelihoods-2021-sage-committee
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