If we do nothing, death toll between 410,000-550,000 dependent on actual R0 (estimated between 2.0 and 2.6) The various interventions and triggers for rolling lockdowns (which werent, in the end, followed) gave a death toll for R=2.6 (the highest modelled; it turned out to be higher than that) of between 12,000 and 120,000, depending on the breadth of measures followed and how hair-trigger we were on the lockdowns.
It gave a wide breadth of options for policymakers (from exercising all of them when new weekly covid-diagnosed ICU cases exceeded 60 and maintained until they dropped to only 15 per week - to exercising only three of them and only when new weekly ICU cases from covid exceeded 400).
I think he could be criticised for not being sufficiently pessimistic (R was, in fact, in excess of 3), but the IFRs look pretty close to the now-known levels.
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
politico.com - Cruz says his wife was ‘pissed’ about leaked text messages, paparazzi coverage The Texas senator repeatedly made light of the Cancún trip scandal on his public apology tour.
[note that Mrs Cruz was (allegedly) "pissed" in the US sense NOT (methinks) in the UK sense. Though either makes sense, given that she's married to whom she's married to.]
Sen. Ted Cruz on Tuesday continued his public apology tour for his heavily criticized trip to Cancún last week amid a crippling power and water crisis across his home state.
But the Texas Republican repeatedly made light of the scandal and complained about his own family’s treatment by members of the media, as well as by neighbors who leaked the contents of a compromising group text chain. . . .
Cruz also referenced photos that circulated in recent days of his family’s pet dog, named Snowflake, seemingly abandoned at home while his owners absconded to Mexico.
“I spend too much time on Twitter, so I see apparently I’ve literally fed Snowflake to the wolves,” Cruz said, going on to explain that the dog was accompanied by a sitter, “and actually the heat and power was back on.”
Cruz said it was “really creepy” that a reporter captured a picture of his dog forlornly staring out a window, and “even more creepy” that his wife Heidi was photographed on the beach “in her bikini” by paparazzi.
“I will tell you, that she is pissed about. All the rest of it, she’s fine,” Cruz said, adding: “Heidi is smoking hot, so I looked at the pictures and said, ‘Man, you look great.’”
During the 2016 Republican presidential primary, then-candidate Donald Trump memorably threatened to “spill the beans” on Heidi Cruz and tweeted an unflattering photo of her next to a glossy image of his own wife, Melania. The senator condemned the posts at the time, but went on to become one of Trump’s fiercest defenders in Congress after he was elected president.
[Having seen the pics of Heidi Cruz cavorting on the beach at Cancun, allow me to say that she's WAY more attractive (physically anyway) than Melania Trump. Also zero reasonable expectation of privacy on that particular beach?
Anyway, thank you Senator Cruz for contributing to the jollification of Texas, the United States and entire United Federation of Planets! (BTW, Alpha Centuri will be laughing its ass - or whatever - off starting in June of this year)
In these troubled times, we can all use few good laughs . . . especially at the expense of a bad joke like Ted Cruz.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
A few on here to get you started. There are quite a lot in total. You are simply wrong on this one.
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
And if you’ve been vaccinated abroad, or are non-resident, or have an old phone with no data plan?
Do we really have to go through this app crap all over again?
If you're vaccinated abroad you should have an abroad way of proving that. Providing proof will be needed from all nations given its going to be needed for flights or entry to some countries, so that's for those nations to resolve. We don't not issue British driving licenses just because we aren't issuing ones from abroad.
Non resident is same thing surely?
As a suggestion I've thought about for those without a smartphone could a credit card sized photo ID card work? Possibly with chip and pin or something like that if privacy concerns?
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
We'll see. I suspect most will opt to carry on taking the furlough cash and business support till May. A wooden shack or tent won't cut it under the proposed regulations by the way.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
If we do nothing, death toll between 410,000-550,000 dependent on actual R0 (estimated between 2.0 and 2.6) The various interventions and triggers for rolling lockdowns (which werent, in the end, followed) gave a death toll for R=2.6 (the highest modelled; it turned out to be higher than that) of between 12,000 and 120,000, depending on the breadth of measures followed and how hair-trigger we were on the lockdowns.
It gave a wide breadth of options for policymakers (from exercising all of them when new weekly covid-diagnosed ICU cases exceeded 60 and maintained until they dropped to only 15 per week - to exercising only three of them and only when new weekly ICU cases from covid exceeded 400).
I think he could be criticised for not being sufficiently pessimistic (R was, in fact, in excess of 3), but the IFRs look pretty close to the now-known levels.
Yes, that now looks seriously prescient.
Ferguson has got a lot of grief, some of it justified - eg for tupping his mistress during lockdown - and some of it absolutely unjustified: eg he has received constant death threats and other lurid menaces on social media, for being a "scare mongerer", or "doom porn merchant" or "wanting to destroy the economy" and all that bollocks. Some of the violent threats were truly nasty.
Given what he has endured, I reckon he should be allowed his quiet moment of epidemiological vindication
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
We'll see. I suspect most will opt to carry on taking the furlough cash and business support till May. A wooden shack or tent won't cut it under the proposed regulations by the way.
On Primrose Hill the shacks are still there, waiting to be used ASAP. They will be.
This nonsense of having to be different...its essentially no different in terms of saying "early April" compared to "no earlier than xth April".
I bet if Boris plan was no specific date, Sturgeon would have given the no earlier than. And Boris would be getting grief for not giving a clearer timeline.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
A few on here to get you started. There are quite a lot in total. You are simply wrong on this one.
According to the ONS there are 15,500 restaurants in London, my guess is the vast majority will stay closed for another month until they can open indoors. We shall know soon enough
I get emails from 4 restaurants I use regularly in the city where I now live and 3 have already indicated they will not reopen until they can serve people indoors and I have heard nothing from the 4th yet.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
It is you and Leon who have turned the discussion into an entirely London-centric one. I did not start out debating what was going to happen in London as though nothing else mattered
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
We'll see. I suspect most will opt to carry on taking the furlough cash and business support till May. A wooden shack or tent won't cut it under the proposed regulations by the way.
Don't agree at all. They will operate if at all possible, for a start to avoid competitors getting the jump on them. You want to be the place to welcome customers back at the first opportunity, as there is a lot of goodwill riding on it - people will remember that first meal back and so on. Keep the shutters down for another month or two and you're at risk of being squeezed out.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
There is a southern invention, unknown in the NE that can be useful in these situations. We call it "a coat"
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
The more interesting question (especially if I'm right and everyone who is anyone is jabbed well before St Swithun's Day) is how much of that do we want to maintain when there isn't virus pressure? London isn't Barcelona, but al fresco cities are cool and we can do it more than we used to.
More generally- what bits of crisis lifestyle do we want to keep post-crisis?
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Fair enough. To be fair I think pubs will open for lunches at least, even in the North.
What I don't quite understand, but no doubt our Scottish legal experts can explain, is what is to stop Alex Salmond appearing at the inquiry and repeating what he said in his now-censored written evidence (which anyone interested has already read anyway)? After all, the High Court have said they're cool with it being published, so what's to stop him repeating it?
Ask Craig Murray - he's still awaiting the decision of his trial judge'sdecision for contempt 5 weeks after court proceedings ended.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
A few on here to get you started. There are quite a lot in total. You are simply wrong on this one.
According to the ONS there are 15,500 restaurants in London, my guess is the vast majority will stay closed for another month until they can open indoors. We shall know soon enough
I get emails from 4 restaurants I use regularly in the city where I now live and 3 have already indicated they will not reopen until they can serve people indoors and I have heard nothing from the 4th yet.
I don't doubt you are right insofar as the majority will stay closed. Indeed the majority of pubs lack any outdoor space so they will have no choice in the matter.
However, your OP claimed "very few, if any" will open. This is wrong. Many hundreds, if not a few thousand, nationwide, will indeed open. You are simply wrong in your original claim.
The NHS app will be converted into a digital Covid-19 certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove that they have been vaccinated or tested negative.
No 10 is considering allowing businesses to demand to see the app to ensure that staff or customers are at a much lower risking of being infectious.
Michael Gove will lead a review into the “deep and complex” issues around vaccine passports, which the government is considering again after previously branding them discriminatory.
It is understood that the government wants to give people the option of showing either vaccination status or test results to ensure that the scheme not does penalise those who cannot receive the vaccine for health reasons.
Health chiefs are looking at using the existing NHS app to offer an easy way for people to show that they have been vaccinated or recently tested. While the NHS contact tracing app is considered unsuitable because its design favours privacy, officials believe that the standard NHS appointment booking app would be relatively straightforward to use.
The app already allows people to see their medical records — including Covid-19 vaccinations — and test results are shared with the GP databases it uses, making it feasible to upload and access them quickly.
Health bosses say it is a “mix of ethical and clinical questions” that the review needs to answer, rather than technical ones. This could include whether people could input and verify the results of a lateral flow test carried out at home.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
A few on here to get you started. There are quite a lot in total. You are simply wrong on this one.
According to the ONS there are 15,500 restaurants in London, my guess is the vast majority will stay closed for another month until they can open indoors. We shall know soon enough
I get emails from 4 restaurants I use regularly in the city where I now live and 3 have already indicated they will not reopen until they can serve people indoors and I have heard nothing from the 4th yet.
I know lots of restaurateurs. The are DESPERATE to open. They have staff suffering, who are bored witless at home (or going mad, or worse). They have loyal customers who are DESPERATE to visit, who will take their custom elsewhere if they are denied the chance.
The idea anyone will delay one minute longer than they have to is mad. Loads of places have, tragically, already gone to the wall, the sooner you open up the greater the chances you avoid this fate.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Jesting aside.
Food will go cold very quickly, as well as the punters.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
The more interesting question (especially if I'm right and everyone who is anyone is jabbed well before St Swithun's Day) is how much of that do we want to maintain when there isn't virus pressure? London isn't Barcelona, but al fresco cities are cool and we can do it more than we used to.
More generally- what bits of crisis lifestyle do we want to keep post-crisis?
Yes, I think that's interesting. Broadly, I think local authorities have taken a message from this that active travel and pedestrianisation measures get pushback at first but turn out to be pretty popular. That's not universal, but I do think there's quite a big mood change there and the momentum has shifted.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
There is a southern invention, unknown in the NE that can be useful in these situations. We call it "a coat"
😅
Only babies wear coats.
Real men wear thongs in five degrees of frost and complain about the heat.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Fair enough. To be fair I think pubs will open for lunches at least, even in the North.
I think so too, particularly those with outdoor heaters which are remarkably effective.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
The more interesting question (especially if I'm right and everyone who is anyone is jabbed well before St Swithun's Day) is how much of that do we want to maintain when there isn't virus pressure? London isn't Barcelona, but al fresco cities are cool and we can do it more than we used to.
More generally- what bits of crisis lifestyle do we want to keep post-crisis?
Yes, absolutely. Patio heaters extend the al fresco dining season, and the beer garden season, by many months. Big central London restaurants were beginning to use them (and spill on to the pavement) even before Covid. Sheekeys is an example.
I expect they are one thing that will remain popular after - God willing - the plague has largely subsided.
And now I must go to the shops and buy food for - sob - some more home cooking. Bloody home cooking. Aaaaargh
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Jesting aside.
Food will go cold very quickly, as well as the punters.
I had a meal outside in the rain last year at Milford (staffs) while on a bike ride to Shugburough.
It was OK but not the most cheerful meal I’ve ever had.
If we do nothing, death toll between 410,000-550,000 dependent on actual R0 (estimated between 2.0 and 2.6) The various interventions and triggers for rolling lockdowns (which werent, in the end, followed) gave a death toll for R=2.6 (the highest modelled; it turned out to be higher than that) of between 12,000 and 120,000, depending on the breadth of measures followed and how hair-trigger we were on the lockdowns.
It gave a wide breadth of options for policymakers (from exercising all of them when new weekly covid-diagnosed ICU cases exceeded 60 and maintained until they dropped to only 15 per week - to exercising only three of them and only when new weekly ICU cases from covid exceeded 400).
I think he could be criticised for not being sufficiently pessimistic (R was, in fact, in excess of 3), but the IFRs look pretty close to the now-known levels.
Yes, that now looks seriously prescient.
Ferguson has got a lot of grief, some of it justified - eg for tupping his mistress during lockdown - and some of it absolutely unjustified: eg he has received constant death threats and other lurid menaces on social media, for being a "scare mongerer", or "doom porn merchant" or "wanting to destroy the economy" and all that bollocks. Some of the violent threats were truly nasty.
Given what he has endured, I reckon he should be allowed his quiet moment of epidemiological vindication
The carping about the amateur quality of his computer coding (it's what academics do, because they want the simplest thing that generates results for them) was massively below the belt. Especially since the big picture of his result followed on the back of an envelope from "most people will need to get this to make it go away" and "of those, about 1% will die- not 0.1% or 10%".
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
There is a southern invention, unknown in the NE that can be useful in these situations. We call it "a coat"
😅
Not necessary even in midwinter up there. Great news for outdoor pubs.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
It's the thought of the toast and pate turning to soup in the rain. Not to menton the dilution of the 15yo Old Pulteney.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
Most of the experts, sadly, expect another 30,000 dead (so does the increasingly reliable University of Washington model)
As the scientists now know a LOT more about this virus, I am willing to trust them accordingly. I fear you are being optimistic, but let's hope you are right.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Yes, that's fair. The pubs will open oop north, but for restaurants it will be harder. The ones that serve cold lunches to hardy walkers will do fine, but city centre curry houses less so.
Zero Covid is 2 different things though. In countries where it has never been endemic, Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia to a large extent it makes total sense. We don't have it. Keep it out. Live as normally as possible otherwise. It is an entirely different proposition when cases have been out of control.
Do you think New Zealand are going to isolate to the extent they are now long term? I doubt it (although insert joke about isolation being the norm there anyway for decades).
They'll thank their lucky stars (and policy approach to an extent to be fair), have a vaccination programme, and reopen as it becomes manageable (at the cost that there will be some level of COVID in NZ).
Being draconian in response to it makes sense to avoid being like the UK, US or Europe. But it makes much less sense as those areas emerge from it later this year.
That's precisely what I think they'll do. And I think they'll consider that a pretty good result all things considered.
Sorry - which do you think they'll do... continue to be draconian or vaccinate/relax at the expense of a manageable level of illness?
The latter. Sorry if that wasn't clear. Vaccinate then relax with manageable caseload.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
There is a southern invention, unknown in the NE that can be useful in these situations. We call it "a coat"
😅
Only babies wear coats.
Real men wear thongs in five degrees of frost and complain about the heat.
So you've been to Newcastle on a January Friday / Saturday night.
Well that is me all Pfizered up. Very very well organised and no issues at all.
Second jab due on 11th May. Which is actually 11 weeks from now rather than 12.
No adverse effects so far, no sign of mind control and of course I do believe that Bill Gates (all hail the great Gates) should be president of the world.... wait, I didn't mean to write that....
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
There is a southern invention, unknown in the NE that can be useful in these situations. We call it "a coat"
😅
Only babies wear coats.
Real men wear thongs in five degrees of frost and complain about the heat.
So you've been to Newcastle on a January Friday / Saturday night.
Well that is me all Pfizered up. Very very well organised and no issues at all.
Second jab due on 11th May. Which is actually 11 weeks from now rather than 12.
No adverse effects so far, no sign of mind control and of course I do believe that Bill Gates (all hail the great Gates) should be president of the world.... wait, I didn't mean to write that....
Hurrah, I also had the Pfizer one, my only side effect was a soreness in the jabbed arm for 48/72 hours.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
I think you are being perhaps a shade optimistic. The death rate is still running at 500 a day, and the case rate 10k. Vaccine protection isn't 100% by any means, particularly before a period after 2nd jab, and nor is take-up. The death rate would need to average 300 a day for the period to June, which is fairly realistic. Maybe just short, but not much short.
That's not to be a doom-monger about it - green shoots and all, and I'm fairly chipper. But 150k by 1 June is probably ballpark right.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
There is a southern invention, unknown in the NE that can be useful in these situations. We call it "a coat"
😅
Not necessary even in midwinter up there. Great news for outdoor pubs.
Well that is me all Pfizered up. Very very well organised and no issues at all.
Second jab due on 11th May. Which is actually 11 weeks from now rather than 12.
No adverse effects so far, no sign of mind control and of course I do believe that Bill Gates (all hail the great Gates) should be president of the world.... wait, I didn't mean to write that....
Congratulations Richard. I recently had my jab too and the service was absolutely superb by the NHS staff.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
Today's hospital bulletin had 280 cases, compared to 220 at the end of the last week. I was hoping for better. Also still 53 in ICU. We ain't done yet, not at least in long suffering Leicester.
Who is this prat? Clearly not a PBer as subsamples are meaningless. Why does he get endlessly retweeted on here?
He's (dunno if it's a 'he', that's obviously Patrick Macnee in his avvie) a Unionist campaigning Tweeter - he just Tweets (occasionally amusingly) anti-SNP stuff. There are vast hordes of people doing so on the anti-Union side, with considerably less aplomb in many cases, so not sure why he gets your goat so much.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
He's only even close to being right because of the horrific increase in death brought about by the Kent variant which has resulted in nearly half of all our deaths in the last 2-3months. It's not impossible that he forecast more infectious variants developing but I don't recall that at the time. Even then we are probably only going to get 1/3 of what he forecast which isn't that close.
lol. He said 400,000 with no controls (and, like everyone else, he did not expect vaccines so quick). We're still gonna see 150,000 dead with total lockdowns and superb vaccines
Given that he is an expert in this field, I imagine he did expect mutations, because, as we have now all learned, painfully, they happen all the time with viruses, eg flu
You clearly have some animus against the guy, which upsets you, but I'm afraid he was right, on this question. He was much mocked, but he has been vindicated.
I have no animus against him at all. I thought that his original model was simplistic and frankly not much short of meaningless because it seemed to assume we were going to carry on like normal and just die. That was never a realistic assumption although it was a fair enough warning that action was urgently required. If he brought home to the government that we needed to act, lock down and invest serious money in vaccines he did us a great service but that doesn't make him right.
No that is simply wrong. His model was based on what would happen IF we did nothing. And bear in mind there were siren voices at the time claiming we should do exactly that - refuse to lockdown and go for herd immunity as fast as possible. It was his calculations and modelling that persuaded the Government that such a course would be nothing short of catastrophic.
Setting aside his personal failings, he has been pretty much spot on and has served both the Government and this country very well.
If he thinks that of those guys, what does he think about Roberts???
He didn't appoint Roberts, so the transactional relationship Trump imagines he has with the others isn't there. SC justices don't "work for" anyone.
"The Tattaglias have the drugs, the numbers, the girls. And they got the finance. But you, Don Corleone, you have what I need the most. The fancy politicians who eat out of your hand. And all of those judges you keep in your top pocket."
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
There is a southern invention, unknown in the NE that can be useful in these situations. We call it "a coat"
😅
Not necessary even in midwinter up there. Great news for outdoor pubs.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
It's the thought of the toast and pate turning to soup in the rain. Not to menton the dilution of the 15yo Old Pulteney.
The toast and pate I could live with, but watered down Old Pulteney 😱
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
He's only even close to being right because of the horrific increase in death brought about by the Kent variant which has resulted in nearly half of all our deaths in the last 2-3months. It's not impossible that he forecast more infectious variants developing but I don't recall that at the time. Even then we are probably only going to get 1/3 of what he forecast which isn't that close.
lol. He said 400,000 with no controls (and, like everyone else, he did not expect vaccines so quick). We're still gonna see 150,000 dead with total lockdowns and superb vaccines
Given that he is an expert in this field, I imagine he did expect mutations, because, as we have now all learned, painfully, they happen all the time with viruses, eg flu
You clearly have some animus against the guy, which upsets you, but I'm afraid he was right, on this question. He was much mocked, but he has been vindicated.
I have no animus against him at all. I thought that his original model was simplistic and frankly not much short of meaningless because it seemed to assume we were going to carry on like normal and just die. That was never a realistic assumption although it was a fair enough warning that action was urgently required. If he brought home to the government that we needed to act, lock down and invest serious money in vaccines he did us a great service but that doesn't make him right.
No that is simply wrong. His model was based on what would happen IF we did nothing. And bear in mind there were siren voices at the time claiming we should do exactly that - refuse to lockdown and go for herd immunity as fast as possible. It was his calculations and modelling that persuaded the Government that such a course would be nothing short of catastrophic.
Setting aside his personal failings, he has been pretty much spot on and has served both the Government and this country very well.
That being said (and I don't know how easy this is to model), populations lock themselves down all by themselves irrespective of government diktat.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
I think you are being perhaps a shade optimistic. The death rate is still running at 500 a day, and the case rate 10k. Vaccine protection isn't 100% by any means, particularly before a period after 2nd jab, and nor is take-up. The death rate would need to average 300 a day for the period to June, which is fairly realistic. Maybe just short, but not much short.
That's not to be a doom-monger about it - green shoots and all, and I'm fairly chipper. But 150k by 1 June is probably ballpark right.
I might be too optimistic. However 3100 deaths (last seven days) and down 30% means next week should be less too. I also think the vaccine effect is now showing significantly and the whole point of most vulnerable first is to stop the deaths. We’ll see, but I’m still hopeful.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
We'll see. I suspect most will opt to carry on taking the furlough cash and business support till May. A wooden shack or tent won't cut it under the proposed regulations by the way.
On Primrose Hill the shacks are still there, waiting to be used ASAP. They will be.
As I understand it an enclosed shack does not constitute "outdoors", as Cyclefree pointed out earlier this time an an enclosed tent does not constitute "outdoors" under the regulations coming into force on April 12th. You are assuming things are as they were last time, they are not.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
It's the thought of the toast and pate turning to soup in the rain. Not to menton the dilution of the 15yo Old Pulteney.
The toast and pate I could live with, but watered down Old Pulteney 😱
I ikmagine the trick is to reduce the amount you put in first to sort of compensate. But frankly it'd be safer to have a pint mug of something from the Black Isle and an insulated pint mug of scotch broth or neep and carrot soup, the way the weather is at the moment.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
Today's hospital bulletin had 280 cases, compared to 220 at the end of the last week. I was hoping for better. Also still 53 in ICU. We ain't done yet, not at least in long suffering Leicester.
Any feeling for why it’s been so bad? Ethnic make up of the area? Other reasons?
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
Most of the experts, sadly, expect another 30,000 dead (so does the increasingly reliable University of Washington model)
As the scientists now know a LOT more about this virus, I am willing to trust them accordingly. I fear you are being optimistic, but let's hope you are right.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Yes, that's fair. The pubs will open oop north, but for restaurants it will be harder. The ones that serve cold lunches to hardy walkers will do fine, but city centre curry houses less so.
I still reckon many will try
See here;s the thing.
When Ron de Santis refused to lockdown Florida through the winter, America's scientists predicted Armageddon. Hospitals overwhelmed. Massive casualties.
Unlike manchild Johnson, De santis refused to be intimidated. And guess what. It never happened. Florida is number 27 on the US states death list, despite being one of America's retirement capitals. Its behind almost all the blue states with their lockdown frenzies.
Did Florida, or South Dakota for that matter, or some other deep red states 'let the disease rip?' nope. They just went a different route. A much lighter touch route.
Its never really been about 'doing nothing'. Its about how appropriate the response of government is.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
Most of the experts, sadly, expect another 30,000 dead (so does the increasingly reliable University of Washington model)
As the scientists now know a LOT more about this virus, I am willing to trust them accordingly. I fear you are being optimistic, but let's hope you are right.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Yes, that's fair. The pubs will open oop north, but for restaurants it will be harder. The ones that serve cold lunches to hardy walkers will do fine, but city centre curry houses less so.
I still reckon many will try
If the drinks don't freeze it is warm enough to eat outside.
The loos are still a problem when it comes to Covid though.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
It's the thought of the toast and pate turning to soup in the rain. Not to menton the dilution of the 15yo Old Pulteney.
The toast and pate I could live with, but watered down Old Pulteney 😱
I ikmagine the trick is to reduce the amount you put in first to sort of compensate. But frankly it'd be safer to have a pint mug of something from the Black Isle and an insulated pint mug of scotch broth or neep and carrot soup, the way the weather is at the moment.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
I was specifically talking about restaurants not pubs. I think we are talking at cross-purposes. I fully accept that the majority of pubs will open nationwide, serving a pint outdoors is an entirely different issue.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
He's only even close to being right because of the horrific increase in death brought about by the Kent variant which has resulted in nearly half of all our deaths in the last 2-3months. It's not impossible that he forecast more infectious variants developing but I don't recall that at the time. Even then we are probably only going to get 1/3 of what he forecast which isn't that close.
lol. He said 400,000 with no controls (and, like everyone else, he did not expect vaccines so quick). We're still gonna see 150,000 dead with total lockdowns and superb vaccines
Given that he is an expert in this field, I imagine he did expect mutations, because, as we have now all learned, painfully, they happen all the time with viruses, eg flu
You clearly have some animus against the guy, which upsets you, but I'm afraid he was right, on this question. He was much mocked, but he has been vindicated.
I have no animus against him at all. I thought that his original model was simplistic and frankly not much short of meaningless because it seemed to assume we were going to carry on like normal and just die. That was never a realistic assumption although it was a fair enough warning that action was urgently required. If he brought home to the government that we needed to act, lock down and invest serious money in vaccines he did us a great service but that doesn't make him right.
No that is simply wrong. His model was based on what would happen IF we did nothing. And bear in mind there were siren voices at the time claiming we should do exactly that - refuse to lockdown and go for herd immunity as fast as possible. It was his calculations and modelling that persuaded the Government that such a course would be nothing short of catastrophic.
Setting aside his personal failings, he has been pretty much spot on and has served both the Government and this country very well.
That being said (and I don't know how easy this is to model), populations lock themselves down all by themselves irrespective of government diktat.
Absolutely. And so any prediction based on 'doing nothing' is based on a false assumption. Some US states decided to start trusting their citizens.
I would argue its paid dividends. And its also showed up the tories as a bunch of closet socialists.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
It's the thought of the toast and pate turning to soup in the rain. Not to menton the dilution of the 15yo Old Pulteney.
The toast and pate I could live with, but watered down Old Pulteney 😱
I ikmagine the trick is to reduce the amount you put in first to sort of compensate. But frankly it'd be safer to have a pint mug of something from the Black Isle and an insulated pint mug of scotch broth or neep and carrot soup, the way the weather is at the moment.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
It's the thought of the toast and pate turning to soup in the rain. Not to menton the dilution of the 15yo Old Pulteney.
The toast and pate I could live with, but watered down Old Pulteney 😱
I ikmagine the trick is to reduce the amount you put in first to sort of compensate. But frankly it'd be safer to have a pint mug of something from the Black Isle and an insulated pint mug of scotch broth or neep and carrot soup, the way the weather is at the moment.
Would that make you a happy chappy?
After several pints of both, esp. if one is made with lamb shank, and with a decent warm Barbour or anorak? Very. But you might as well take a wide mouth thermos and fill it with soup before going out, ditto some cans of 80/-. And find a nice quiet tree to sit under with nobody talking loudly 3 yards upwind of you. Which rather obviates the notion of a pub garden as far as I am concerned.
This is the time of year I find it most difficult to believe, in my heart, the sun will come back, weather will improve, etc.
Well that is me all Pfizered up. Very very well organised and no issues at all.
Second jab due on 11th May. Which is actually 11 weeks from now rather than 12.
No adverse effects so far, no sign of mind control and of course I do believe that Bill Gates (all hail the great Gates) should be president of the world.... wait, I didn't mean to write that....
I’ve been wondering whether there is some sort of battery that you get wired up to to power the microchip in the vaccine?
Well that is me all Pfizered up. Very very well organised and no issues at all.
Second jab due on 11th May. Which is actually 11 weeks from now rather than 12.
No adverse effects so far, no sign of mind control and of course I do believe that Bill Gates (all hail the great Gates) should be president of the world.... wait, I didn't mean to write that....
I’ve been wondering whether there is some sort of battery that you get wired up to to power the microchip in the vaccine?
You made me think of RT having an irresistible urge to insert an AA Duracell. Urgh.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
He's only even close to being right because of the horrific increase in death brought about by the Kent variant which has resulted in nearly half of all our deaths in the last 2-3months. It's not impossible that he forecast more infectious variants developing but I don't recall that at the time. Even then we are probably only going to get 1/3 of what he forecast which isn't that close.
lol. He said 400,000 with no controls (and, like everyone else, he did not expect vaccines so quick). We're still gonna see 150,000 dead with total lockdowns and superb vaccines
Given that he is an expert in this field, I imagine he did expect mutations, because, as we have now all learned, painfully, they happen all the time with viruses, eg flu
You clearly have some animus against the guy, which upsets you, but I'm afraid he was right, on this question. He was much mocked, but he has been vindicated.
I have no animus against him at all. I thought that his original model was simplistic and frankly not much short of meaningless because it seemed to assume we were going to carry on like normal and just die. That was never a realistic assumption although it was a fair enough warning that action was urgently required. If he brought home to the government that we needed to act, lock down and invest serious money in vaccines he did us a great service but that doesn't make him right.
No that is simply wrong. His model was based on what would happen IF we did nothing. And bear in mind there were siren voices at the time claiming we should do exactly that - refuse to lockdown and go for herd immunity as fast as possible. It was his calculations and modelling that persuaded the Government that such a course would be nothing short of catastrophic.
Setting aside his personal failings, he has been pretty much spot on and has served both the Government and this country very well.
You’re right and, as I said earlier, I hope his far more upbeat recent prognostications prove similarly correct.
I remember when Neil Ferguson gave that Channel 4 interview and said the UK would see potentially 400,000 dead, IF we did not attempt to control it (and of course he was not anticipating vaccines)
At the moment Britain is expected to see 150,000 dead by June 1, 2021, and that's WITH lockdowns and WITH vaccines
Neil Ferguson was right.
Assuming some of those in hospital sadly die, but not all, who are going to be the rest to reach 150,000? Cases dropping, admissions dropping, most vulnerable protected. I expect fewer than that number, but then maybe I’m just an optimist.
Most of the experts, sadly, expect another 30,000 dead (so does the increasingly reliable University of Washington model)
As the scientists now know a LOT more about this virus, I am willing to trust them accordingly. I fear you are being optimistic, but let's hope you are right.
After a simply gloriously sunny day yesterday, rain and wind here today. A reminder that spring weather is unreliable and often far too cold to be outside for any prolonged period, especially in the evening, and in most of the country.
Very few beer gardens are going to open on the earliest possible date because it is hard to do so profitably during a month when in large parts of the country the weather is often poor and unreliable, which makes planning and ordering stock difficult. Remember also that if you have a tent with sides in the garden it cannot be used as it is classed as "inside space". If it open at the sides then who is going to want to sit in there in the evening open to the elements in April in many parts of the country?
What would be more useful is allowing takeaway alcohol sales for, gasp, pubs which have been prohibited from doing so, even though off licences and supermarkets have been allowed to.
Also important in the general rejoicing is to know what is to happen to the support offered to hospitality because currently it is to stop well before venues are allowed to open properly.
More than a week's notice is needed for opening. Breweries have already said that they will need 2-3 weeks notice to start operations so don't be surprised to find many places not opening until the end of May/ early June. From mid-February until then is a way to go without income and with support significantly less than fixed costs.
But at least there is a plan and the recognition that zero-Covid is unachievable is a welcome dose of realism.
Very few restaurants, if any, will find it viable to open up to serve people outside in April in the UK. It's virtually pointless, we are not in the South of France or the Algarve (unfortunately)
Wrong. Plenty down here will open.
Yes. A few patio heaters, a dry mild evening, bingo
Sling a few cheap blankets about the place and they'll be packed in April if the weather is alright. Give people a hot water bottle - the punters will see it as a fun novelty. Pensioners may not bother, and fair enough, but you'll be struggling to get a table anywhere decent.
All sounds fine but remind me again which central London restaurants have sufficient outdoor space to be make opening in April viable.
You clearly did not go to London during the last unlockdowning. Everyone improvised. Soho was turned into a pedestrianised zone and they built temporary wooden shacks in the streets - with patio heaters
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
Indeed. I'm not entirely sure why Olly is repeatedly banging this drum. Does he think we are making it all up, or perhaps dreaming it, or are under the influence of mind-altering drugs that cause Londoners to perceive outdoor restaurants like mirages in the desert?
Stop being so London-centric though. There's much less of that up here in the North East. Some restaurants and pubs have improvised outdoor seating but it's really too cold to eat outside on anything other than the hottest summer nights unless you're already hammered.
I'm not being London-centric, Olly was being North-centric in his original claim that "very few, if any" pubs will open outdoors, in England.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
Even in the north you get plenty of dry sunny days in late April. They may not be tee-shirt weather but if you wear a big coat you can happily sit down and have a pint.
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
I was talking about food though. Of course we can have a pint or 10 outside. It's just less comfortable having a full sit down meal even if you're wearing a big coat.
Yes, that's fair. The pubs will open oop north, but for restaurants it will be harder. The ones that serve cold lunches to hardy walkers will do fine, but city centre curry houses less so.
I still reckon many will try
See here;s the thing.
When Ron de Santis refused to lockdown Florida through the winter, America's scientists predicted Armageddon. Hospitals overwhelmed. Massive casualties.
Unlike manchild Johnson, De santis refused to be intimidated. And guess what. It never happened. Florida is number 27 on the US states death list, despite being one of America's retirement capitals. Its behind almost all the blue states with their lockdown frenzies.
Did Florida, or South Dakota for that matter, or some other deep red states 'let the disease rip?' nope. They just went a different route. A much lighter touch route.
Its never really been about 'doing nothing'. Its about how appropriate the response of government is.
Ignoring the fact that Florida did have a lockdown just as tough as, if not tougher than, most other US states during the first wave. You are being very selective in your choice of data.
Well that is me all Pfizered up. Very very well organised and no issues at all.
Second jab due on 11th May. Which is actually 11 weeks from now rather than 12.
No adverse effects so far, no sign of mind control and of course I do believe that Bill Gates (all hail the great Gates) should be president of the world.... wait, I didn't mean to write that....
Hurrah, I also had the Pfizer one, my only side effect was a soreness in the jabbed arm for 48/72 hours.
I would've had Pfizer if the Surgery had been open... not sure what I will get now.. is there really any difference
I might do a trend on Scottish subsamples this weekend.
It woulds actually be interesting to have your thoughts as to why they are (seemingly) deemed to be particularly unreliable - a sort of PB equivalent to luvvies talking about the Scottish Play. Any worse than say Wales?
Comments
If we do nothing, death toll between 410,000-550,000 dependent on actual R0 (estimated between 2.0 and 2.6)
The various interventions and triggers for rolling lockdowns (which werent, in the end, followed) gave a death toll for R=2.6 (the highest modelled; it turned out to be higher than that) of between 12,000 and 120,000, depending on the breadth of measures followed and how hair-trigger we were on the lockdowns.
It gave a wide breadth of options for policymakers (from exercising all of them when new weekly covid-diagnosed ICU cases exceeded 60 and maintained until they dropped to only 15 per week - to exercising only three of them and only when new weekly ICU cases from covid exceeded 400).
I think he could be criticised for not being sufficiently pessimistic (R was, in fact, in excess of 3), but the IFRs look pretty close to the now-known levels.
This was repeated across London. From Hackney to Primrose Hill
It will happen again because the restaurants are desperate for business, the borough councils are desperate for people to visit, and the shacks cost pennies
The Texas senator repeatedly made light of the Cancún trip scandal on his public apology tour.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/23/cruz-wife-pissed-leaked-text-paparazzi-471128
[note that Mrs Cruz was (allegedly) "pissed" in the US sense NOT (methinks) in the UK sense. Though either makes sense, given that she's married to whom she's married to.]
Sen. Ted Cruz on Tuesday continued his public apology tour for his heavily criticized trip to Cancún last week amid a crippling power and water crisis across his home state.
But the Texas Republican repeatedly made light of the scandal and complained about his own family’s treatment by members of the media, as well as by neighbors who leaked the contents of a compromising group text chain. . . .
Cruz also referenced photos that circulated in recent days of his family’s pet dog, named Snowflake, seemingly abandoned at home while his owners absconded to Mexico.
“I spend too much time on Twitter, so I see apparently I’ve literally fed Snowflake to the wolves,” Cruz said, going on to explain that the dog was accompanied by a sitter, “and actually the heat and power was back on.”
Cruz said it was “really creepy” that a reporter captured a picture of his dog forlornly staring out a window, and “even more creepy” that his wife Heidi was photographed on the beach “in her bikini” by paparazzi.
“I will tell you, that she is pissed about. All the rest of it, she’s fine,” Cruz said, adding: “Heidi is smoking hot, so I looked at the pictures and said, ‘Man, you look great.’”
During the 2016 Republican presidential primary, then-candidate Donald Trump memorably threatened to “spill the beans” on Heidi Cruz and tweeted an unflattering photo of her next to a glossy image of his own wife, Melania. The senator condemned the posts at the time, but went on to become one of Trump’s fiercest defenders in Congress after he was elected president.
[Having seen the pics of Heidi Cruz cavorting on the beach at Cancun, allow me to say that she's WAY more attractive (physically anyway) than Melania Trump. Also zero reasonable expectation of privacy on that particular beach?
Anyway, thank you Senator Cruz for contributing to the jollification of Texas, the United States and entire United Federation of Planets! (BTW, Alpha Centuri will be laughing its ass - or whatever - off starting in June of this year)
In these troubled times, we can all use few good laughs . . . especially at the expense of a bad joke like Ted Cruz.
https://www.squaremeal.co.uk/restaurants/best-for/alfresco-and-outdoor-dining-spaces-in-london_8681
https://www.timeout.com/london/restaurants/londons-best-outdoor-dining
https://london.eater.com/maps/best-outdoor-dining-london-restaurants-heated-tables-coronavirus-tier-2-restrictions
Non resident is same thing surely?
As a suggestion I've thought about for those without a smartphone could a credit card sized photo ID card work? Possibly with chip and pin or something like that if privacy concerns?
Ferguson has got a lot of grief, some of it justified - eg for tupping his mistress during lockdown - and some of it absolutely unjustified: eg he has received constant death threats and other lurid menaces on social media, for being a "scare mongerer", or "doom porn merchant" or "wanting to destroy the economy" and all that bollocks. Some of the violent threats were truly nasty.
Given what he has endured, I reckon he should be allowed his quiet moment of epidemiological vindication
https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1364265300317921280?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/23/scotlands-stages-how-coronavirus-lockdown-will-be-eased
This nonsense of having to be different...its essentially no different in terms of saying "early April" compared to "no earlier than xth April".
I bet if Boris plan was no specific date, Sturgeon would have given the no earlier than. And Boris would be getting grief for not giving a clearer timeline.
I get emails from 4 restaurants I use regularly in the city where I now live and 3 have already indicated they will not reopen until they can serve people indoors and I have heard nothing from the 4th yet.
This is demonstrable nonsense, as will be proven on w/c 12 April in London and the south of England, where many pubs will indeed open.
It is you and Leon who have turned the discussion into an entirely London-centric one. I did not start out debating what was going to happen in London as though nothing else mattered
😅
More generally- what bits of crisis lifestyle do we want to keep post-crisis?
After five months of loneliness, the urge to go and have a drink with friends will be overwhelming for many. Especially the young. Any pub that can open, will surely open. And business will be good.
trialjudge'sdecision for contempt 5 weeks after court proceedings ended.However, your OP claimed "very few, if any" will open. This is wrong. Many hundreds, if not a few thousand, nationwide, will indeed open. You are simply wrong in your original claim.
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1364278956560629763?s=20
Why should those that do be denied useful functionality because of the personal choices of those that choose not to?
The idea anyone will delay one minute longer than they have to is mad. Loads of places have, tragically, already gone to the wall, the sooner you open up the greater the chances you avoid this fate.
Food will go cold very quickly, as well as the punters.
Real men wear thongs in five degrees of frost and complain about the heat.
I expect they are one thing that will remain popular after - God willing - the plague has largely subsided.
And now I must go to the shops and buy food for - sob - some more home cooking. Bloody home cooking. Aaaaargh
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1364279540768518145?s=20
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1364280172447469569?s=20
It was OK but not the most cheerful meal I’ve ever had.
Have the Oxford lot recanted yet?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/gallery/newcastle-clubbers-ignore-snow-freeze-13937529
And even more interesting if there isn’t...
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-scientists-predicted-at-least-30-000-more-coronavirus-deaths-under-most-optimistic-model-for-lifting-lockdown-12226058
As the scientists now know a LOT more about this virus, I am willing to trust them accordingly. I fear you are being optimistic, but let's hope you are right. Yes, that's fair. The pubs will open oop north, but for restaurants it will be harder. The ones that serve cold lunches to hardy walkers will do fine, but city centre curry houses less so.
I still reckon many will try
Second jab due on 11th May. Which is actually 11 weeks from now rather than 12.
No adverse effects so far, no sign of mind control and of course I do believe that Bill Gates (all hail the great Gates) should be president of the world.... wait, I didn't mean to write that....
I think she was later reported to have said that was the worst mistake of her entire political career.
Hard to disagree even remembering the RPA disaster.
That's not to be a doom-monger about it - green shoots and all, and I'm fairly chipper. But 150k by 1 June is probably ballpark right.
It was four below with six inches of lying snow.
I do not exaggerate here.
Why, the klaxon would be out of work.
https://twitter.com/lummideast/status/1364174167504019459
Cavellero
Pochettino
Samuel
Placente
Zanetti
Simeone
Sorin
Ortega
Veron
Gonzalez
Batistuta
Setting aside his personal failings, he has been pretty much spot on and has served both the Government and this country very well.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1364285191842316302?s=20
Psychic
https://twitter.com/AngelaHaggerty/status/1364222110902542341?s=20
Something like that anyway.
When Ron de Santis refused to lockdown Florida through the winter, America's scientists predicted Armageddon. Hospitals overwhelmed. Massive casualties.
Unlike manchild Johnson, De santis refused to be intimidated. And guess what. It never happened. Florida is number 27 on the US states death list, despite being one of America's retirement capitals. Its behind almost all the blue states with their lockdown frenzies.
Did Florida, or South Dakota for that matter, or some other deep red states 'let the disease rip?' nope. They just went a different route. A much lighter touch route.
Its never really been about 'doing nothing'. Its about how appropriate the response of government is.
However it is only a subsample as has been pointed out.
The loos are still a problem when it comes to Covid though.
I would argue its paid dividends. And its also showed up the tories as a bunch of closet socialists.
This is the time of year I find it most difficult to believe, in my heart, the sun will come back, weather will improve, etc.
154 respondents never will be reliable.
Just a thought!