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MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD? – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,866
    To be fair, quite a few of those countries are still showing data from Jan 20
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Nigelb said:
    Not relaxing being US President, is it?

    Within hours of taking office you get tested with shit like this.
    I think he has already put a marker down with the Chinese re Taiwan.

    Trouble is China shows no sign of trying to get along with its neighbours
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Nigelb said:
    Not relaxing being US President, is it?

    Within hours of taking office you get tested with shit like this.
    Don't think it is to be taken too seriously. If they were serious they'd have done it on afternoon of 6th Jan as the rioters smashed into the Capitol.
    Perhaps they took Biden seriously on his "Unite the nation" theme. And decided, being jolly nice chaps, was to him something that will get through the Senate...... 101 - 0.

    Defence of Taiwan.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,306
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    If they want to conquer and retake Taiwan, roughly about now would be ideal. Otherwise they will have to wait until about 2035, when they have total economic supremacy and regional hegemony.

    Either way, it is coming
    I wonder if they can do it without effectively restarting the Chinese civil war.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,891

    “Some people might put this change down to Brexit, but it is actually just greed. It is well within the power of the card schemes to make merchants' lives easy and keep things operating as they were pre-2021,” said Joel Gladwin, head of policy at the Coalition for a Digital Economy, which represents British start-ups.

    Brexiteers claim Brexit is all about opportunity.

    Mastercard are taking the opportunity Brexit provides them...

    This is what winning looks like
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population

    The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths

    Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million

    WORLD BEATING BORIS

    Boris should have closed the airports last March.
    Point is, March was too late. In feb there were thousands of infections already in the community. Lot of skiing trips etc. We were seeded everywhere, but notably in London. Arguably we should have locked down a week earlier, which I am sure would have saved many lives in the first wave. It’s also clear that we should have kept the nov lockdown on because of new variant and because the cases were still too high.
    Also we virtually eliminated deaths in May and June last year despite having no travel restrictions.

    All this scapegoating of international travellers is very distasteful, but it's always easier to blame dreaded foreigners than get your own society under control.
    It's clear that the uptick in Autumn was caused by an imported strain. Had there been no travel we'd probably still be ticking along with few deaths. And the opprobrium is shared by foreigners visiting and Brits returning from holiday equally.
    I don't think that's quite true.

    If you look at July, UK cases were running at around 5-700/day. So, at any one time, perhaps 15,000 people in the UK had (and were infectious with) Coronavirus. Given restrictions kept being loosened in the Autumn (and we had programmes encouraging people to eat out) it was always going to grow quickly from that base.

    With more onerous restrictions, we would have slowed the growth, and it would probably have bought us two or three weeks. But it wouldn't have stopped a second half of the year surge.

    Travel restrictions are incredibly useful tools if cases are very low. But when they are high, they can have only a modest effect. There are probably at least 300,000 people in the UK with CV19, so it's while we don't want to import 1,000 new cases in the next week, it probably has little impact on overall rates.

    Hawaii has consistently very low levels of CV19 - by far the best in the US. It manages this via (a) requiring a negative PCR test 48 hours before travel, and (b) some relatively minor restrictions such as mask wearing in public places and reduced restaurant capacity.

    I would suggest that is the model we'd want to emulate medium term. It won't catch everyone, but given that we're going to probably go from 3 million vaccinations a week to 5 million, it probably achieves 98% of the efficacy for 2% of the cost.
    If (hopefully) we're finally going to put a lid on Covid with mass vaccination, then my main concern wouldn't be trying to put a New Zealand-style force field around the country and keep 100% of cases out. It would be the importation of a disastrous new variant. That's what we're most concerned with here. The flow of road haulage in and out of the country presents enough of a risk to that, without adding mass passenger travel to the list.

    There's a live argument that there should be no mass travel again until the whole world has been vaccinated. We ought certainly to be avoiding opening any holiday travel corridors until the mass vaccination project has been completed here and in the country at the other end, and we ought probably to be preventing individuals who refuse the vaccine from leaving the UK in the first place.

    For the time being, other than road haulage truckers, I'd be entirely in favour of a total prohibition on all international travel save on compassionate grounds (basically visiting dying relatives or travelling for unusual medical treatments not offered in the UK,) and for UK officials and foreign diplomats on state business. Foreign holidays really are not necessary, and neither are non-UK or Irish passport holders, unless ordinarily resident here. And those incoming should all be carted off to airport hotel quarantine, preferably for three weeks not two, and tested half to death before being let out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    I was talking with friends in Poland and France, this evening. There is no real sense of the differing rates in vaccination as yet.

    It's one of those ones, where the information is out there. But it hasn't reached critical mass in the population.

    Remember the Fuel Strike? I (and everyone else in the oil business) assumed that everyone knew that the price of petrol is 70%+ tax.... Then suddenly a lot of people realised.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Floater said:
    Isn't there already a 6pm curfew? That's significantly more strict than our lockdown.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    If they want to conquer and retake Taiwan, roughly about now would be ideal. Otherwise they will have to wait until about 2035, when they have total economic supremacy and regional hegemony.

    Either way, it is coming
    Depends if Taiwan has developed a nuclear bomb by then, which is not impossible. It is a highly educated and technical population.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:
    Isn't there already a 6pm curfew? That's significantly more strict than our lockdown.
    Zey 'av le covid de Cockney, for sure
  • Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1353459783148269569?s=09
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:
    Isn't there already a 6pm curfew? That's significantly more strict than our lockdown.
    Does the curfew mean you literally have to stay indoors after 6pm??? I presumed it meant all bars, shops, everything shut at that time

    Genuine Q
  • Tories are revolting...

    twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1353459783148269569

    Well i wouldn't kiss one...if that's what you mean.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:
    Isn't there already a 6pm curfew? That's significantly more strict than our lockdown.
    Does the curfew mean you literally have to stay indoors after 6pm??? I presumed it meant all bars, shops, everything shut at that time

    Genuine Q
    I think it means no going outdoors after 6 without prior appointment which you get by filling in some form with a valid reason (like a doctors appointment).
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:
    Isn't there already a 6pm curfew? That's significantly more strict than our lockdown.
    Does the curfew mean you literally have to stay indoors after 6pm??? I presumed it meant all bars, shops, everything shut at that time

    Genuine Q
    At the same time riots in Holland and now Denmark over lockdowns

    We really are a dumb species at times
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population

    The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths

    Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million

    WORLD BEATING BORIS

    Boris should have closed the airports last March.
    Point is, March was too late. In feb there were thousands of infections already in the community. Lot of skiing trips etc. We were seeded everywhere, but notably in London. Arguably we should have locked down a week earlier, which I am sure would have saved many lives in the first wave. It’s also clear that we should have kept the nov lockdown on because of new variant and because the cases were still too high.
    Also we virtually eliminated deaths in May and June last year despite having no travel restrictions.

    All this scapegoating of international travellers is very distasteful, but it's always easier to blame dreaded foreigners than get your own society under control.
    It's clear that the uptick in Autumn was caused by an imported strain. Had there been no travel we'd probably still be ticking along with few deaths. And the opprobrium is shared by foreigners visiting and Brits returning from holiday equally.
    I don't think that's quite true.

    If you look at July, UK cases were running at around 5-700/day. So, at any one time, perhaps 15,000 people in the UK had (and were infectious with) Coronavirus. Given restrictions kept being loosened in the Autumn (and we had programmes encouraging people to eat out) it was always going to grow quickly from that base.

    With more onerous restrictions, we would have slowed the growth, and it would probably have bought us two or three weeks. But it wouldn't have stopped a second half of the year surge.

    Travel restrictions are incredibly useful tools if cases are very low. But when they are high, they can have only a modest effect. There are probably at least 300,000 people in the UK with CV19, so it's while we don't want to import 1,000 new cases in the next week, it probably has little impact on overall rates.

    Hawaii has consistently very low levels of CV19 - by far the best in the US. It manages this via (a) requiring a negative PCR test 48 hours before travel, and (b) some relatively minor restrictions such as mask wearing in public places and reduced restaurant capacity.

    I would suggest that is the model we'd want to emulate medium term. It won't catch everyone, but given that we're going to probably go from 3 million vaccinations a week to 5 million, it probably achieves 98% of the efficacy for 2% of the cost.
    If (hopefully) we're finally going to put a lid on Covid with mass vaccination, then my main concern wouldn't be trying to put a New Zealand-style force field around the country and keep 100% of cases out. It would be the importation of a disastrous new variant. That's what we're most concerned with here. The flow of road haulage in and out of the country presents enough of a risk to that, without adding mass passenger travel to the list.

    There's a live argument that there should be no mass travel again until the whole world has been vaccinated. We ought certainly to be avoiding opening any holiday travel corridors until the mass vaccination project has been completed here and in the country at the other end, and we ought probably to be preventing individuals who refuse the vaccine from leaving the UK in the first place.

    For the time being, other than road haulage truckers, I'd be entirely in favour of a total prohibition on all international travel save on compassionate grounds (basically visiting dying relatives or travelling for unusual medical treatments not offered in the UK,) and for UK officials and foreign diplomats on state business. Foreign holidays really are not necessary, and neither are non-UK or Irish passport holders, unless ordinarily resident here. And those incoming should all be carted off to airport hotel quarantine, preferably for three weeks not two, and tested half to death before being let out.
    Yes. Agreed. They need to do all of that. eg Why are we keeping the backdoor open and allowing the Irish to come and go? They have hardly been our friends through this struggle.

    Shut down the borders. It will hurt, but not doing it will hurt more.

    The only way out of this fucking nightmare is a successful vaccination programme and not allowing in any new variants. We are an island. It can be done. It will cost a lot.

    The Black Death cost more.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:
    Isn't there already a 6pm curfew? That's significantly more strict than our lockdown.
    Does the curfew mean you literally have to stay indoors after 6pm??? I presumed it meant all bars, shops, everything shut at that time

    Genuine Q
    I think it means no going outdoors after 6 without prior appointment which you get by filling in some form with a valid reason (like a doctors appointment).
    I have heard it suggested by French people that the curfew, which is intended to stop sneaky parties etc, it causing damage by compressing the hours when people can shop. Making the shops more crowed....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Any guesses where an independent Scotland would fit into this list?

    Plucky Luxembourg paying its share, I see.
    Luxembourg is a repulsive little country. Like a fat anal polyp on the backside of Europe. We should invade, and pillage, now we have left the EU.
    Juncker's wine cellar would make it wothwhile alone.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    //twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1353459783148269569?s=09

    They should make standby lists of people willing to come and queue up after 6pm everyday, just sign up with your local centre to be contacted on any day where there are leftovers to queue up.
  • eek said:
    How could it be? That isn't because Brexit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Floater said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:
    Isn't there already a 6pm curfew? That's significantly more strict than our lockdown.
    Does the curfew mean you literally have to stay indoors after 6pm??? I presumed it meant all bars, shops, everything shut at that time

    Genuine Q
    At the same time riots in Holland and now Denmark over lockdowns

    We really are a dumb species at times
    This seems like Donald Fucking Trump levels of special.....

    https://www.dw.com/en/rioting-dutch-youths-torch-covid-testing-center/a-56329339
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    If they want to conquer and retake Taiwan, roughly about now would be ideal. Otherwise they will have to wait until about 2035, when they have total economic supremacy and regional hegemony.

    Either way, it is coming
    Nah. One thing Xi Jinping isn't is stupid.
    They can't take Taiwan without massive casualties. Or very quickly.
    The Taiwanese are tooled up and have been preparing for invasion for 72 years. All the road grids, beaches, landing grounds even the schools are oriented towards offering as big a kill zone as possible. Before you even consider the snow capped mountains in rainforest.
    The CCP know this very well. It's one reason they've never tried.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    rcs1000 said:

    To be fair, quite a few of those countries are still showing data from Jan 20
    Jan 17 - 1 - Sweden
    Jan 20 - 1 - Ireland
    Jan 21 - 2 - Slovakia/Luxembourg
    Jan 22 - 7 - Spain, Germany, Belgium
    Jan 23 - 12 - UK, Denmark, Poland
    Jan 24 - 5 - France, Austria
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    If they want to conquer and retake Taiwan, roughly about now would be ideal. Otherwise they will have to wait until about 2035, when they have total economic supremacy and regional hegemony.

    Either way, it is coming
    Nah. One thing Xi Jinping isn't is stupid.
    They can't take Taiwan without massive casualties. Or very quickly.
    The Taiwanese are tooled up and have been preparing for invasion for 72 years. All the road grids, beaches, landing grounds even the schools are oriented towards offering as big a kill zone as possible. Before you even consider the snow capped mountains in rainforest.
    The CCP know this very well. It's one reason they've never tried.
    I wish he'd invade us, frankly. Give us a proper government. Bring back the death penalty. Etc.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:
    “Some people might put this change down to Brexit, but it is actually just greed. It is well within the power of the card schemes to make merchants' lives easy and keep things operating as they were pre-2021,” said Joel Gladwin, head of policy at the Coalition for a Digital Economy, which represents British start-ups.
    In the same way as crime is in no way a consequence of poor policing, because it is well within the power of burglars and rapists to make their targets' lives easier by refraining from rape and burglary. Bizarre point.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    If they want to conquer and retake Taiwan, roughly about now would be ideal. Otherwise they will have to wait until about 2035, when they have total economic supremacy and regional hegemony.

    Either way, it is coming
    Depends if Taiwan has developed a nuclear bomb by then, which is not impossible. It is a highly educated and technical population.
    If Taiwan goes nuclear, Japan will follow about 5 minutes later. Then everyone in a 1000 kilometre radius will want heavy metal.

    Not following up on the promise to Ukraine looks better and better all the time, doesn't it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,306

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    If they want to conquer and retake Taiwan, roughly about now would be ideal. Otherwise they will have to wait until about 2035, when they have total economic supremacy and regional hegemony.

    Either way, it is coming
    Depends if Taiwan has developed a nuclear bomb by then, which is not impossible. It is a highly educated and technical population.
    If Taiwan goes nuclear, Japan will follow about 5 minutes later. Then everyone in a 1000 kilometre radius will want heavy metal.

    Not following up on the promise to Ukraine looks better and better all the time, doesn't it?
    I should think a Taiwan nuclear weapon is more likely than not, while the US would go to war with China to defend Japan or South Korea, a Taiwan invasion would likely just be met by US sanctions on China. So Taiwan's government has to take all necessary measures to put off China from invading
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,306
    HYUFD said:
    Has he never heard of Franco or Salazar?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    Yeah, I'd rather someone gets a dose rather than any of it going to waste.
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:
    Isn't there already a 6pm curfew? That's significantly more strict than our lockdown.
    Does the curfew mean you literally have to stay indoors after 6pm??? I presumed it meant all bars, shops, everything shut at that time

    Genuine Q
    I think it means no going outdoors after 6 without prior appointment which you get by filling in some form with a valid reason (like a doctors appointment).
    Bit difficult to exercise or go to the supermarket after work.

    And must increase congestion before 6pm.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Scott_xP said:

    “Some people might put this change down to Brexit, but it is actually just greed. It is well within the power of the card schemes to make merchants' lives easy and keep things operating as they were pre-2021,” said Joel Gladwin, head of policy at the Coalition for a Digital Economy, which represents British start-ups.

    Brexiteers claim Brexit is all about opportunity.

    Mastercard are taking the opportunity Brexit provides them...

    This is what winning looks like
    Talking of opportunity, can anyone point to any evidence of Brexit having a positive impact anywhere yet?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I was talking with friends in Poland and France, this evening. There is no real sense of the differing rates in vaccination as yet.
    They'll work it out sooner or later:





  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    HYUFD said:
    Has he never heard of Franco or Salazar?
    Yes, possibly the stupidest tweet of the year so far.

    Also, has Britain succumbed to "national populism"?

    Brexit was a serious proposition for decades, if anything we *succumbed to democracy*
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,801

    Scott_xP said:

    “Some people might put this change down to Brexit, but it is actually just greed. It is well within the power of the card schemes to make merchants' lives easy and keep things operating as they were pre-2021,” said Joel Gladwin, head of policy at the Coalition for a Digital Economy, which represents British start-ups.

    Brexiteers claim Brexit is all about opportunity.

    Mastercard are taking the opportunity Brexit provides them...

    This is what winning looks like
    Talking of opportunity, can anyone point to any evidence of Brexit having a positive impact anywhere yet?
    Perhaps something in the last set of comments?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    Scott_xP said:

    “Some people might put this change down to Brexit, but it is actually just greed. It is well within the power of the card schemes to make merchants' lives easy and keep things operating as they were pre-2021,” said Joel Gladwin, head of policy at the Coalition for a Digital Economy, which represents British start-ups.

    Brexiteers claim Brexit is all about opportunity.

    Mastercard are taking the opportunity Brexit provides them...

    This is what winning looks like
    Talking of opportunity, can anyone point to any evidence of Brexit having a positive impact anywhere yet?
    Yes. We know that we can, with our vote, kick out anyone who royally fucks up, in government. Item: Boris Johnson.

    Can Europeans throw out their EU Commission, which has so impressively mishandled the EU vaccination programme? Nope.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    If they want to conquer and retake Taiwan, roughly about now would be ideal. Otherwise they will have to wait until about 2035, when they have total economic supremacy and regional hegemony.

    Either way, it is coming
    Nah. One thing Xi Jinping isn't is stupid.
    They can't take Taiwan without massive casualties. Or very quickly.
    The Taiwanese are tooled up and have been preparing for invasion for 72 years. All the road grids, beaches, landing grounds even the schools are oriented towards offering as big a kill zone as possible. Before you even consider the snow capped mountains in rainforest.
    The CCP know this very well. It's one reason they've never tried.
    I wish he'd invade us, frankly. Give us a proper government. Bring back the death penalty. Etc.
    While also turning us into an authoritarian dictatorship
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    HYUFD said:
    What is Goodwin on about. Countries with fascist dictatorships immune to right wing populists?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,801

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    How many vaccines are we talking about. 10%, 1%, 0.01%?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    If they want to conquer and retake Taiwan, roughly about now would be ideal. Otherwise they will have to wait until about 2035, when they have total economic supremacy and regional hegemony.

    Either way, it is coming
    Depends if Taiwan has developed a nuclear bomb by then, which is not impossible. It is a highly educated and technical population.
    Scott_xP said:
    There are people "familiar with his thinking?" I hope they are well paid and have good therapists.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,801
    Scott_xP said:
    The policy will massively suppress travel. Capacity is not a concern.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2021
    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    I was talking with friends in Poland and France, this evening. There is no real sense of the differing rates in vaccination as yet.
    They'll work it out sooner or later:



    Yeah - the reaction may or may not be interesting. I suspect that it will come much later - when the effects of the vaccinations start coming through.

    Perhaps this shows it better.

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=GBR~DEU&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=daily&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,306

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    But that would require a change in policy from the top.
  • What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825
    HYUFD said:
    62% for the incumbent ahead of 12% in second place? How crap were his opponents?!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    RobD said:

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    How many vaccines are we talking about. 10%, 1%, 0.01%?
    I suspect it’s 10s out of the 996 Pfizer box. Still should be done differently. We do not like anything that smacks of unfairness in this country, even if it does mean less waste.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,801

    RobD said:

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    How many vaccines are we talking about. 10%, 1%, 0.01%?
    I suspect it’s 10s out of the 996 Pfizer box. Still should be done differently. We do not like anything that smacks of unfairness in this country, even if it does mean less waste.
    What's the phrase, the enemy of progress is perfection?
  • HYUFD said:
    Has he never heard of Franco or Salazar?
    History is bunk.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    If they want to conquer and retake Taiwan, roughly about now would be ideal. Otherwise they will have to wait until about 2035, when they have total economic supremacy and regional hegemony.

    Either way, it is coming
    Nah. One thing Xi Jinping isn't is stupid.
    They can't take Taiwan without massive casualties. Or very quickly.
    The Taiwanese are tooled up and have been preparing for invasion for 72 years. All the road grids, beaches, landing grounds even the schools are oriented towards offering as big a kill zone as possible. Before you even consider the snow capped mountains in rainforest.
    The CCP know this very well. It's one reason they've never tried.
    I wish he'd invade us, frankly. Give us a proper government. Bring back the death penalty. Etc.
    While also turning us into an authoritarian dictatorship
    Well, no one is perfect. He'd take a firm stance on secessionists, which might find favour with some.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:
    Has he never heard of Franco or Salazar?
    His reverse ferret on this will be good.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The policy will massively suppress travel. Capacity is not a concern.
    Well yes. That's it. This policy will destroy much of the UK's tourist industry (and associated businesses, from theatre to hospitality), which has been barely ticking along, anyway.

    I have friends who run restaurants and hotels in Thailand. They are now facing total ruin, as Thailand has been doing precisely this (enforced hotel quarantine) for many months. It has successfully suppressed the virus, but it has incinerated a large chunk of the economy.

    It's not something you do lightly. I believe the high price is sadly worth paying, but I can see why others might demur.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825
    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    I agree. They're not jumping the queue, they're shortening the queue.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Green Bay fighting back....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    But that would require a change in policy from the top.
    I’m only talking about the extras, not the whole batch.
  • I wonder what Conservative MPs would prefer:

    1) Reopen schools
    2) Keep airports open
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825

    What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!

    You didn't accept his explanation on that?
    https://twitter.com/Brett_Samuels27/status/1349169559354355712
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    62% for the incumbent ahead of 12% in second place? How crap were his opponents?!
    President Rebelo de Souza is seriously cool. He's a 72 year old surfing fanatic.

    I like the fact that he surfs on this beach
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swqR39aRynU
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population

    The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths

    Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million

    WORLD BEATING BORIS

    Boris should have closed the airports last March.
    Point is, March was too late. In feb there were thousands of infections already in the community. Lot of skiing trips etc. We were seeded everywhere, but notably in London. Arguably we should have locked down a week earlier, which I am sure would have saved many lives in the first wave. It’s also clear that we should have kept the nov lockdown on because of new variant and because the cases were still too high.
    Also we virtually eliminated deaths in May and June last year despite having no travel restrictions.

    All this scapegoating of international travellers is very distasteful, but it's always easier to blame dreaded foreigners than get your own society under control.
    It's clear that the uptick in Autumn was caused by an imported strain. Had there been no travel we'd probably still be ticking along with few deaths. And the opprobrium is shared by foreigners visiting and Brits returning from holiday equally.
    I don't think that's quite true.

    If you look at July, UK cases were running at around 5-700/day. So, at any one time, perhaps 15,000 people in the UK had (and were infectious with) Coronavirus. Given restrictions kept being loosened in the Autumn (and we had programmes encouraging people to eat out) it was always going to grow quickly from that base.

    With more onerous restrictions, we would have slowed the growth, and it would probably have bought us two or three weeks. But it wouldn't have stopped a second half of the year surge.

    Travel restrictions are incredibly useful tools if cases are very low. But when they are high, they can have only a modest effect. There are probably at least 300,000 people in the UK with CV19, so it's while we don't want to import 1,000 new cases in the next week, it probably has little impact on overall rates.

    Hawaii has consistently very low levels of CV19 - by far the best in the US. It manages this via (a) requiring a negative PCR test 48 hours before travel, and (b) some relatively minor restrictions such as mask wearing in public places and reduced restaurant capacity.

    I would suggest that is the model we'd want to emulate medium term. It won't catch everyone, but given that we're going to probably go from 3 million vaccinations a week to 5 million, it probably achieves 98% of the efficacy for 2% of the cost.
    If (hopefully) we're finally going to put a lid on Covid with mass vaccination, then my main concern wouldn't be trying to put a New Zealand-style force field around the country and keep 100% of cases out. It would be the importation of a disastrous new variant. That's what we're most concerned with here. The flow of road haulage in and out of the country presents enough of a risk to that, without adding mass passenger travel to the list.

    There's a live argument that there should be no mass travel again until the whole world has been vaccinated. We ought certainly to be avoiding opening any holiday travel corridors until the mass vaccination project has been completed here and in the country at the other end, and we ought probably to be preventing individuals who refuse the vaccine from leaving the UK in the first place.

    For the time being, other than road haulage truckers, I'd be entirely in favour of a total prohibition on all international travel save on compassionate grounds (basically visiting dying relatives or travelling for unusual medical treatments not offered in the UK,) and for UK officials and foreign diplomats on state business. Foreign holidays really are not necessary, and neither are non-UK or Irish passport holders, unless ordinarily resident here. And those incoming should all be carted off to airport hotel quarantine, preferably for three weeks not two, and tested half to death before being let out.
    Yes. Agreed. They need to do all of that. eg Why are we keeping the backdoor open and allowing the Irish to come and go? They have hardly been our friends through this struggle.

    Shut down the borders. It will hurt, but not doing it will hurt more.

    The only way out of this fucking nightmare is a successful vaccination programme and not allowing in any new variants. We are an island. It can be done. It will cost a lot.

    The Black Death cost more.
    There's been a certain amount of needle in the relationship, but consider: 1. Irish citizens have special status in British law, 2. the status of the Northern Ireland border necessitates freedom of movement and 3. Ireland itself is not to be regarded as a foreign country under the provisions of the Ireland Act of 1949, which I believe still remains in force. Thus to exclude them would be unthinkable, but we're perfectly entitled to quarantine them of course.

    Anyway, putting that issue aside, we hear rumours from the newspapers that the closure of the borders may finally be upon us. We'll just have to wait and see whether we get full-fat or semi-skimmed measures. You never know with this lot: they rarely miss the opportunity to be fatally behind the curve.
  • Green Bay fighting back....

    Battle of the OAP quarterbacks....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Those wanting to punch Grant Shapps Very Hard in The Face, Repeatedly - form an orderly queue...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,306

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    But that would require a change in policy from the top.
    I’m only talking about the extras, not the whole batch.
    I realise that, but if the policy prevents the people on the front line from doing that then the only thing they can do under the radar to stop the doses going to waste is call people they know and say, "If you can get here in the next hour then you can get the vaccine."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    But that would require a change in policy from the top.
    I’m only talking about the extras, not the whole batch.
    I realise that, but if the policy prevents the people on the front line from doing that then the only thing they can do under the radar to stop the doses going to waste is call people they know and say, "If you can get here in the next hour then you can get the vaccine."
    Have a standby list and that as well incase the standby list doesn't work.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825
    I get that dark envelopes would be more distinctive, but I am curious if it would actually aid things or not, as it seems like those who want a jab will be on the lookout for notice, and those who don't want one won't care. Presumably they'll be able to analyse things afterwards.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    I think teachers, classroom assistants and all adults dealing directly with school kids would need to be vaccinated (both doses) before schools can reopen.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's a bit like the First World War.

    Looking back, you think: how on earth did anyone tolerate this pointless, futile carnage? How did the troops stay loyal in the trenches? Why did they walk to certain death by machine gun?

    What the F was happening on the home front in Britain (or France, or Germany)? The mass slaughter of young men, for month after month, fighting over trivial yards of Flanders mud.

    It seems remarkable, from our perspective, that no politician stood up and said Stop, and got a hearing, and then a truce. Yet the idiotic blood-letting went on for four terrible years.

    It's not an exact analogy, but it shows how civilised, educated nations can get used to absurd death tolls, and enter into a kind of denial
  • kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    People are bored with covid.

    Vaccination is the new thing.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    But that would require a change in policy from the top.
    I’m only talking about the extras, not the whole batch.
    I realise that, but if the policy prevents the people on the front line from doing that then the only thing they can do under the radar to stop the doses going to waste is call people they know and say, "If you can get here in the next hour then you can get the vaccine."
    Or post on social media, or local radio, etc. There are other ways
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,851

    Scott_xP said:

    “Some people might put this change down to Brexit, but it is actually just greed. It is well within the power of the card schemes to make merchants' lives easy and keep things operating as they were pre-2021,” said Joel Gladwin, head of policy at the Coalition for a Digital Economy, which represents British start-ups.

    Brexiteers claim Brexit is all about opportunity.

    Mastercard are taking the opportunity Brexit provides them...

    This is what winning looks like
    Talking of opportunity, can anyone point to any evidence of Brexit having a positive impact anywhere yet?
    Sadly on Conservative voting intentions.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344

    Green Bay fighting back....

    Battle of the OAP quarterbacks....
    Both on top of their game still....
  • kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,306
    edited January 2021

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    But that would require a change in policy from the top.
    I’m only talking about the extras, not the whole batch.
    I realise that, but if the policy prevents the people on the front line from doing that then the only thing they can do under the radar to stop the doses going to waste is call people they know and say, "If you can get here in the next hour then you can get the vaccine."
    Or post on social media, or local radio, etc. There are other ways
    Yes, but that isn't 'under the radar'. It needs a policy decision to allow it to happen. Plus if you only have a handful of doses then an announcement wouldn't be a good idea. @MaxPB's idea of a standby list seems like the best way to manage it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825
    Scott_xP said:
    It's a pretty straightforward bit of reasoning, I wonder how long it took his people to get it through his skull.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Any guesses where an independent Scotland would fit into this list?

    Plucky Luxembourg paying its share, I see.
    Luxembourg is a repulsive little country. Like a fat anal polyp on the backside of Europe. We should invade, and pillage, now we have left the EU.
    Admittedly it was some 3 decades ago, but I had a lovely few days staying in the charming Ardennes town of Wiltz in Luxembourg. A lovely little town, with hospitable people.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Any guesses where an independent Scotland would fit into this list?

    Plucky Luxembourg paying its share, I see.
    Luxembourg is a repulsive little country. Like a fat anal polyp on the backside of Europe. We should invade, and pillage, now we have left the EU.
    Admittedly it was some 3 decades ago, but I had a lovely few days staying in the charming Ardennes town of Wiltz in Luxembourg. A lovely little town, with hospitable people.
    I've seen pics. I am sure it is gorgeous and bucolic. It is also, as a country, a parasite and a leech.
  • CrabbieCrabbie Posts: 55

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    But that would require a change in policy from the top.
    I’m only talking about the extras, not the whole batch.
    I realise that, but if the policy prevents the people on the front line from doing that then the only thing they can do under the radar to stop the doses going to waste is call people they know and say, "If you can get here in the next hour then you can get the vaccine."
    Sadly i suspect some people would pay a lot to be one of the ‘people they know’ which would incentivise people to ensure there are stocks left at the end of the day.

    I’m sure the vast majority of people are decent, but can you design a policy that doesn’t encourage black-marketeering?
  • Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's a bit like the First World War.

    Looking back, you think: how on earth did anyone tolerate this pointless, futile carnage? How did the troops stay loyal in the trenches? Why did they walk to certain death by machine gun?

    What the F was happening on the home front in Britain (or France, or Germany)? The mass slaughter of young men, for month after month, fighting over trivial yards of Flanders mud.

    It seems remarkable, from our perspective, that no politician stood up and said Stop, and got a hearing, and then a truce. Yet the idiotic blood-letting went on for four terrible years.

    It's not an exact analogy, but it shows how civilised, educated nations can get used to absurd death tolls, and enter into a kind of denial
    Its also a disease of sick oldies.

    And to a lesser extent of the urban poor.

    If it struck equally throughout society then it would be more frightening for most people.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    edited January 2021
    What a world we live in.

    SNP MSP blocks SNP MP is the content I'm on Twitter for.

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1353447558836850698
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    But that would require a change in policy from the top.
    I’m only talking about the extras, not the whole batch.
    I realise that, but if the policy prevents the people on the front line from doing that then the only thing they can do under the radar to stop the doses going to waste is call people they know and say, "If you can get here in the next hour then you can get the vaccine."
    Or post on social media, or local radio, etc. There are other ways
    Yes, but that isn't 'under the radar'. It needs a policy decision to allow it to happen. Plus if you only have a handful of doses then an announcement wouldn't be a good idea. @MaxPB's idea of a standby list seems like the best way to manage it.
    Is there a policy decision for nhs friends and family to get called? Or is there no policy currently? Is that what you’re saying?
  • Green Bay fighting back....

    Battle of the OAP quarterbacks....
    Both on top of their game still....
    Mahomes, Hill, Kelce and crew with still have to play very badly not to win this year.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,801

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    Sounds like restrictions are here for a few months yet at the very least.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/24/britain-faces-three-month-halfway-house-lockdown-easter-over/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    We've had this conversation more than once. Tory backbenchers, amplified by their Press cheer section, shout Open Up!
    The public, as evidenced by all polling, demurs.
    The PM caves to the loud minority.
This discussion has been closed.