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MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD? – politicalbetting.com

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  • ONE of Lee Rigby’s killers is fighting for life in hospital after being struck down by Covid-19.

    Michael Adebowale, 29, was taken from Broadmoor last week after his condition rapidly went downhill.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13837562/lee-rigby-killer-fighting-for-life-covid/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    Scott_xP said:

    “Some people might put this change down to Brexit, but it is actually just greed. It is well within the power of the card schemes to make merchants' lives easy and keep things operating as they were pre-2021,” said Joel Gladwin, head of policy at the Coalition for a Digital Economy, which represents British start-ups.

    Brexiteers claim Brexit is all about opportunity.

    Mastercard are taking the opportunity Brexit provides them...

    This is what winning looks like
    Talking of opportunity, can anyone point to any evidence of Brexit having a positive impact anywhere yet?
    Tampons.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,696

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    But that would require a change in policy from the top.
    I’m only talking about the extras, not the whole batch.
    I realise that, but if the policy prevents the people on the front line from doing that then the only thing they can do under the radar to stop the doses going to waste is call people they know and say, "If you can get here in the next hour then you can get the vaccine."
    Or post on social media, or local radio, etc. There are other ways
    Yes, but that isn't 'under the radar'. It needs a policy decision to allow it to happen. Plus if you only have a handful of doses then an announcement wouldn't be a good idea. @MaxPB's idea of a standby list seems like the best way to manage it.
    Is there a policy decision for nhs friends and family to get called? Or is there no policy currently? Is that what you’re saying?
    As far as I understand, the current policy is for any spare doses of vaccine to be thrown away. People on the front line are using their initiative to use them up. I know of one person who got it that way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's a bit like the First World War.

    Looking back, you think: how on earth did anyone tolerate this pointless, futile carnage? How did the troops stay loyal in the trenches? Why did they walk to certain death by machine gun?

    What the F was happening on the home front in Britain (or France, or Germany)? The mass slaughter of young men, for month after month, fighting over trivial yards of Flanders mud.

    It seems remarkable, from our perspective, that no politician stood up and said Stop, and got a hearing, and then a truce. Yet the idiotic blood-letting went on for four terrible years.

    It's not an exact analogy, but it shows how civilised, educated nations can get used to absurd death tolls, and enter into a kind of denial
    It's silly, I know, but there's a line in Watership Down which has stuck with me ever since I read it as a child, about how something Rabbits supposedly share with humans, is their ability to weather disaster.

    I've always thought that true, and how used society can get to utter horror as a new normal. It's simultaneously distressing as it shows how people can pretty usely get used to even themselves doing or accepting terrible things and situations as it becomes mundane, but also uplifting, both because it tends to just show how good we have it now, and also why the most depressing predictions of the impact of Covid probably just aren't true.
  • RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    Sounds like restrictions are here for a few months yet at the very least.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/24/britain-faces-three-month-halfway-house-lockdown-easter-over/
    That sort of speculation is irrelevant.

    What will decide things are the level of infection and hospitalization from mid February onwards.

    The quicker they come down the quicker restrictions will be reduced.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    Surely it's a done deal if the Treasury is in. If Shapps feels this is a resigning matter then he doesn't need to let the door hit him on the way out.

    Ultimately we can make this revenue neutral by loading the costs on the incoming travellers.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,442

    Friends and family queue jumping the vaccines. In Israel, they just let anybody queue up after a certain time, which seems fairer.

    Yes, I don't get the outrage about vaccine queue jumping. It's far better for people to jump the queue than to waste doses.
    As pointed out elsewhere, there are better ways to use them up, such as better planning, or general call for first come first serve, not just friends and family of nhs staff.
    But that would require a change in policy from the top.
    I’m only talking about the extras, not the whole batch.
    I realise that, but if the policy prevents the people on the front line from doing that then the only thing they can do under the radar to stop the doses going to waste is call people they know and say, "If you can get here in the next hour then you can get the vaccine."
    Or post on social media, or local radio, etc. There are other ways
    Yes, but that isn't 'under the radar'. It needs a policy decision to allow it to happen. Plus if you only have a handful of doses then an announcement wouldn't be a good idea. @MaxPB's idea of a standby list seems like the best way to manage it.
    Is there a policy decision for nhs friends and family to get called? Or is there no policy currently? Is that what you’re saying?
    As far as I understand, the current policy is for any spare doses of vaccine to be thrown away. People on the front line are using their initiative to use them up. I know of one person who got it that way.
    If the policy is to throw away, then yes, any arm is surely better.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431
    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom


    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    And now to really scare everyone.

    Elon Musk has deployed satellites with... lasers....

    Actually this is the next generation in the Starlink system - laser communication between the satellites.

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1353408098342326276

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    Sounds like restrictions are here for a few months yet at the very least.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/24/britain-faces-three-month-halfway-house-lockdown-easter-over/
    That sort of speculation is irrelevant.

    What will decide things are the level of infection and hospitalization from mid February onwards.

    The quicker they come down the quicker restrictions will be reduced.
    I don't think they will be lifting any restrictions in Feb. But agreed that it will be the data at the time that guides the decision.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's been dragging on now for so long, and the headlines have been so relentlessly awful, that I think people have simply become inured to it. Mostly, they're just grimly plodding through and waiting for it to be over. The situation also reminds me a little of the avalanche of charity begging adverts you get on telly during the daytime - you know, all those ones with the crippled mangey donkeys, or the filthy, emaciated dogs, or the crying, starving children? You might pay attention the first few times, but eventually you tune it out as background noise, press the mute button, or change the channel until the program you were watching comes back on. After a while, the weight of the suffering of others either becomes too much to stomach so you have to look away, or so commonplace as to render it banal.

    It's also why I think the Government won't pay as heavy a price as it should for its many mistakes: if you've got a close friend or relative who's died from the Plague, or you've been seriously ill yourself, or you've been worked half to death in a busy hospital and you blame the Government for that, then that's one thing - but most people aren't in that position. An awful lot of voters might sum up their experiences at the end of the pandemic as "Well, that was bloody awful, but the Government did its best dealing with a shitty situation not of their making, they spent lots of money keeping the country going, and then they gave us all the vaccine so we can go back to normal. Thank you Boris!" Frankly, the Tories are more likely to be punished if we end up with mass unemployment when the business failures have finished unwinding, and then have trouble digging ourselves back out of it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    Iain Martin with "but how do you know there will be a surge in cases if we open up everything?" is absolute peak toss pot today.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's a bit like the First World War.

    Looking back, you think: how on earth did anyone tolerate this pointless, futile carnage? How did the troops stay loyal in the trenches? Why did they walk to certain death by machine gun?

    What the F was happening on the home front in Britain (or France, or Germany)? The mass slaughter of young men, for month after month, fighting over trivial yards of Flanders mud.

    It seems remarkable, from our perspective, that no politician stood up and said Stop, and got a hearing, and then a truce. Yet the idiotic blood-letting went on for four terrible years.

    It's not an exact analogy, but it shows how civilised, educated nations can get used to absurd death tolls, and enter into a kind of denial
    I've just finished Rand's excellent new book on the Hapsburgs. During the worst of WWI the Hapsburg regime set up a huge exhibition about the war. Packed full of stuff - uniforms, mock trenches, equipment, guns, examples of rations - the works.

    It was designed to take the people's mind off the war by showing them the war.

  • kle4 said:

    What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!

    You didn't accept his explanation on that?
    https://twitter.com/Brett_Samuels27/status/1349169559354355712
    'that very famous documentary about fictitious medieval England'

    I've not much idea what Rudy's courtroom skills and rhetorical powers were like in his prime, but I assume some level above what they are now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    What a world we live in.

    SNP MSP blocks SNP MP is the content I'm on Twitter for.

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1353447558836850698

    I don't know what's going on but I guarantee that MacNeil is in the wrong.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    If we're finally going to take proper action at the border with quarantine hotels plus a rapid vaccine rollout, the end, at least domestically, is in sight for me. Eventually the virus will simply run out of hosts it can spread from for any length of time. This is going to be pretty tough for some tourist focussed businesses but the alternative is importing a vaccine resistant variant and starting all over again. As other countries implement similar policies wrt to their borders and show a good record on vaccination and transparency with low case data we can selectively reopen them with tests in both directions and no transit passengers on any flights.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    Has he never heard of Franco or Salazar?
    Yes, possibly the stupidest tweet of the year so far.

    Also, has Britain succumbed to "national populism"?

    Brexit was a serious proposition for decades, if anything we *succumbed to democracy*
    It was democracy and also national populism. By which I mean no national populism = no win for Leave, and no win for BJ to Get It Done.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's been dragging on now for so long, and the headlines have been so relentlessly awful, that I think people have simply become inured to it. Mostly, they're just grimly plodding through and waiting for it to be over. The situation also reminds me a little of the avalanche of charity begging adverts you get on telly during the daytime - you know, all those ones with the crippled mangey donkeys, or the filthy, emaciated dogs, or the crying, starving children? You might pay attention the first few times, but eventually you tune it out as background noise, press the mute button, or change the channel until the program you were watching comes back on. After a while, the weight of the suffering of others either becomes too much to stomach so you have to look away, or so commonplace as to render it banal.

    It's also why I think the Government won't pay as heavy a price as it should for its many mistakes: if you've got a close friend or relative who's died from the Plague, or you've been seriously ill yourself, or you've been worked half to death in a busy hospital and you blame the Government for that, then that's one thing - but most people aren't in that position. An awful lot of voters might sum up their experiences at the end of the pandemic as "Well, that was bloody awful, but the Government did its best dealing with a shitty situation not of their making, they spent lots of money keeping the country going, and then they gave us all the vaccine so we can go back to normal. Thank you Boris!" Frankly, the Tories are more likely to be punished if we end up with mass unemployment when the business failures have finished unwinding, and then have trouble digging ourselves back out of it.
    I think there is also a element of personal guilt - many, many people has been breaking the rules... which kind of blunts their ability to say "it was all their fault"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,665
    edited January 2021
    Alistair said:

    What a world we live in.

    SNP MSP blocks SNP MP is the content I'm on Twitter for.

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1353447558836850698

    I don't know what's going on but I guarantee that MacNeil is in the wrong.
    They had a brouhaha over this

    https://twitter.com/glasgowcathcart/status/1352984692887314434

    Edit - Also see some of the replies by Dornan underneath that tweet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    OK, maybe Brady is having a mare of a second half.....
  • Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom


    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Given that the model doesn't even have the correct historical numbers and also manages to measure number of deaths to two decimal places I would have doubts about it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    I also see no reason why we couldn't with proper isolation and testing measures do proper travel corridors now with countries adopting similarly tough border policies and low infection, high vaccination rates. At least once we've got to that stage and a few other countries have as well.

    The EU really, really needs to secure it's external border (even from us) otherwise they will continue to import cases and it will never go away.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    Iain Martin with "but how do you know there will be a surge in cases if we open up everything?" is absolute peak toss pot today.
    I suggest we ask him to stand on a suitably remote desert island and perform the following fun physics experiment.

    Hold a 0.7 critical mass of Uranium 235 in each hand. Then smash them together*.

    Some estimates of the potential yield are north of 2 kilotons. But lets find out - for sure!

    *Seriously, the maths on this suggests this would actually work.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's been dragging on now for so long, and the headlines have been so relentlessly awful, that I think people have simply become inured to it. Mostly, they're just grimly plodding through and waiting for it to be over. The situation also reminds me a little of the avalanche of charity begging adverts you get on telly during the daytime - you know, all those ones with the crippled mangey donkeys, or the filthy, emaciated dogs, or the crying, starving children? You might pay attention the first few times, but eventually you tune it out as background noise, press the mute button, or change the channel until the program you were watching comes back on. After a while, the weight of the suffering of others either becomes too much to stomach so you have to look away, or so commonplace as to render it banal.

    It's also why I think the Government won't pay as heavy a price as it should for its many mistakes: if you've got a close friend or relative who's died from the Plague, or you've been seriously ill yourself, or you've been worked half to death in a busy hospital and you blame the Government for that, then that's one thing - but most people aren't in that position. An awful lot of voters might sum up their experiences at the end of the pandemic as "Well, that was bloody awful, but the Government did its best dealing with a shitty situation not of their making, they spent lots of money keeping the country going, and then they gave us all the vaccine so we can go back to normal. Thank you Boris!" Frankly, the Tories are more likely to be punished if we end up with mass unemployment when the business failures have finished unwinding, and then have trouble digging ourselves back out of it.
    I'm not so sure on your second paragraph, particularly as a sizable portion of the public are predisposed to take a negative view of the government so it doesn't take much on top of that for them to pay a heavy price.

    But you are likely correct on the first. It presumably has a proper name, but I always think of it in terms of a fictional trope description of 'darkness induced apathy'. Of course Covid is not a story, but as a principal when things are all trough all the time it is exhausting and harder to react to any new bad thing. It's the same reason oppositions have to oppose, but not seem like they think everything sucks all the time, as it makes pointing out the truly sucky things less impacful.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,696
    edited January 2021
    The first election in an independent Scotland will probably be fought between the Plan A party and the Plan B party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    kle4 said:

    What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!

    You didn't accept his explanation on that?
    https://twitter.com/Brett_Samuels27/status/1349169559354355712
    'that very famous documentary about fictitious medieval England'

    I've not much idea what Rudy's courtroom skills and rhetorical powers were like in his prime, but I assume some level above what they are now.
    Worst of it is I can still actually understand what he was trying to say with that particular sentence, and it makes more sense than the rest of it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    We've had this conversation more than once. Tory backbenchers, amplified by their Press cheer section, shout Open Up!
    The public, as evidenced by all polling, demurs.
    The PM caves to the loud minority.
    It's a debate that will never end. Even after the pandemic people will be on at each other about the rights and wrongs. Just like Brexit and Scottish Independence. These arguments are never finally settled. Opinion will ebb and flow forever.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    edited January 2021

    ONE of Lee Rigby’s killers is fighting for life in hospital after being struck down by Covid-19.

    Michael Adebowale, 29, was taken from Broadmoor last week after his condition rapidly went downhill.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13837562/lee-rigby-killer-fighting-for-life-covid/

    I hope he recovers. I don't want him getting off easy.

    He needs to serve the other 37 years of his minimum sentence, and then get repeatedly rejected for parole.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It's a pretty straightforward bit of reasoning, I wonder how long it took his people to get it through his skull.
    Of course You-Know-Who could change is mind, and decide to run after all - as a Republican or an Independent - IF he was NOT convicted and barred from seeking 2nd term.

    Older PBers may remember, how in 1992 Ross Perot stopped his Independent presidential campaign (just before the Democratic National Convention) then started it back up weeks later.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's been dragging on now for so long, and the headlines have been so relentlessly awful, that I think people have simply become inured to it. Mostly, they're just grimly plodding through and waiting for it to be over. The situation also reminds me a little of the avalanche of charity begging adverts you get on telly during the daytime - you know, all those ones with the crippled mangey donkeys, or the filthy, emaciated dogs, or the crying, starving children? You might pay attention the first few times, but eventually you tune it out as background noise, press the mute button, or change the channel until the program you were watching comes back on. After a while, the weight of the suffering of others either becomes too much to stomach so you have to look away, or so commonplace as to render it banal.

    It's also why I think the Government won't pay as heavy a price as it should for its many mistakes: if you've got a close friend or relative who's died from the Plague, or you've been seriously ill yourself, or you've been worked half to death in a busy hospital and you blame the Government for that, then that's one thing - but most people aren't in that position. An awful lot of voters might sum up their experiences at the end of the pandemic as "Well, that was bloody awful, but the Government did its best dealing with a shitty situation not of their making, they spent lots of money keeping the country going, and then they gave us all the vaccine so we can go back to normal. Thank you Boris!" Frankly, the Tories are more likely to be punished if we end up with mass unemployment when the business failures have finished unwinding, and then have trouble digging ourselves back out of it.
    I'm not so sure on your second paragraph, particularly as a sizable portion of the public are predisposed to take a negative view of the government so it doesn't take much on top of that for them to pay a heavy price.

    But you are likely correct on the first. It presumably has a proper name, but I always think of it in terms of a fictional trope description of 'darkness induced apathy'. Of course Covid is not a story, but as a principal when things are all trough all the time it is exhausting and harder to react to any new bad thing. It's the same reason oppositions have to oppose, but not seem like they think everything sucks all the time, as it makes pointing out the truly sucky things less impacful.
    Maybe desensitisation?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431
    edited January 2021

    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom


    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Given that the model doesn't even have the correct historical numbers and also manages to measure number of deaths to two decimal places I would have doubts about it.
    I've been watching this model for a year. It started out as entirely risible - producing hallucinatory guesstimates - but over time it has got better. Indeed, a lot better (as you would expect, as they feed in evermore accurate data).

    It still has moments of madness./For a while last month it was predicting 150,000 dead in Germany, making it the worst in Europe (now down to 90,000). Yet, overall, it has gained in credibility. I fear it is probably in the ballpark re the UK (and the USA, Brazil, and Mexico).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom


    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Given that the model doesn't even have the correct historical numbers and also manages to measure number of deaths to two decimal places I would have doubts about it.
    Unless we have a very sharp drop in deaths, unlike previous waves, then another 20-30000 or so by then doesn't seem absurd, and at that the difference with the prediction would be noticable, but not massive.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Apparently the UK has just overtaken Italy to have the highest Covid per capita death rate in the world, at 1,437 per million people. If my maths is right that means it's scrubbed about 0.15% of the UK population so far, and we're also comfortably in excess of the entire UK civilian death toll for both World Wars. This might have changed a little by the end of the pandemic, if other countries have been less thorough in their reporting or if our pandemic is ended by vaccination well before theirs, but it's hard to imagine that we won't be on the rostrum for unwanted medals in this category when this is all over.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    Iain Martin with "but how do you know there will be a surge in cases if we open up everything?" is absolute peak toss pot today.
    Well the fact that we did it and it happened, twice?
    Rule of three before you can confirm anything, that's science, bro.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,665
    edited January 2021

    kle4 said:

    What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!

    You didn't accept his explanation on that?
    https://twitter.com/Brett_Samuels27/status/1349169559354355712
    'that very famous documentary about fictitious medieval England'

    I've not much idea what Rudy's courtroom skills and rhetorical powers were like in his prime, but I assume some level above what they are now.
    They were awesome, he went after the mob, including the five families, and nailed them, So much so that they put a hit out on him.

    In recent times only Aung San Suu Kyi has managed to shit their reputation like Rudy G has.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    Sounds like restrictions are here for a few months yet at the very least.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/24/britain-faces-three-month-halfway-house-lockdown-easter-over/
    That sort of speculation is irrelevant.

    What will decide things are the level of infection and hospitalization from mid February onwards.

    The quicker they come down the quicker restrictions will be reduced.
    Exactly this. Speculating on how fast the numbers will turn is guesswork, but the numbers will lead, and deaths, hospitalisations and cases all need to be a long way down. I still have confidence the vaccine is a game changer and will kick in quickly to improve the course of events when it does, but there may be an awkward intermezzo when deaths are a long way down, but hospitalisations (increasingly of younger, unvaccinated people) and cases remain stubbornly high.

    But it may be a little while yet - Israel hasn't seen much improvement in either deaths or cases yet other than typical lockdown suppression. And if you look back 2:weeks to count how many relevant people should be contributing to case suppression, or 3 weeks to hospitalisation suppression, or 4 weeks to death suppression, 'not yet' is not yet a big problem. Though the waiting is nervy.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Scott_xP said:
    What an utterly misleading headline. The right is there, they have to apply for it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    Should get to over 500k today, hopefully we do that on a regular basis next week for 3-3.5m doses per week. It would completely short circuit the whole 12 week cycle slowdown that people are worried about. AZ have really smashed it, with government help.
    I said something about the AZ vaccine being the real deal at the time it was first announced.

    What’s annoying is I can’t find the quote to prove it using Google and I can’t be bothered to scroll through all the old threads to find it, so you’ll just have to take my word for my awesome prescience.
    If you are on mobile the search function on vanilla is really quite good now. You can filter by author and date range.

    It is how I keep turning up peoples' (my own included) blown predictions.
    Sir, you are officially a genius. I didn’t know about that feature.

    Here it is, in all its glory:
    If it's 90% effective on a more rigorous testing regime than the others, costs a tenth to make and can be stored in a bog-standard piece of kit without spending zillions on dry ice:

    Then screw the other vaccines, this is the real deal.

    And massive credit to AZ and Cowley Tech for making it available on a not-for-profit basis to the developing world.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3131563
    Hmm?
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/south-africa-paying-more-than-double-eu-price-for-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine
    South Africa will pay $5.25 per dose for COVID-19 vaccines from the Serum Institute of India (SII) - well above what others, including developed nations, are paying for the same shots, local newspaper Business Day reported on Thursday.

    The Business Day report cited health department Deputy Director-General Anban Pillay as saying the price was based on South Africa’s level of development and its past investment in research and development.

    “We were advised that SII has applied a tiered pricing system, and given that (South Africa) is an upper-middle-income country, their price is $5.25. The explanation we were given for why other high-income countries have a lower price is that they have invested in the (research and development), hence the discount on the price,” it quoted him as saying.

    The SII, which Business Day said did not respond to requests for comment, is one of several manufacturers licensed by AstraZeneca to make its COVID-19 vaccine. South Africa is due to procure 1.5 million of the shots from the institute.

    Other nations or blocs are paying much less. In June, for instance, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France negotiated a price of around $2.50 per shot for 300 million doses from AstraZeneca as part of a European deal to secure supplies of the drug.

    The SII is also set to supply 100 million doses of the vaccine to the African Union for $3 each, Reuters reported.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-safrica-vaccines/safrica-to-pay-big-premium-for-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-from-indias-sii-business-day-idUSL1N2JW0DH
    Looks scandalous to me. South Africa is certainly not an "Upper middle income" country per head - it's 92nd, behind countries like Colombia and a third of Italy (https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/). Has Italy really been been investing massively in AZ's R&D?
    The EU are buying directly from AZ, SA are buying from SII. It's not a comparable situation, I'm surprised that they aren't going down the COVAX route though as I'm sure they'd be eligible. The other issue is that, predicably, the Indian government put an export ban on SII for three months which means lower income countries buying from them are going to be waiting while AZ direct clients will get them immediately.

    The upside is that with SII supply will be fairly reliable as they are a formidable outfit, unlike AZ which doesn't have a history of vaccine production. We've seen that with our order being late and underwhelming initially and the EU initial delivery going from 80m to 31m because of production issues.

    Ultimately, it's going to be tough going for developing nations until at least the middle of summer when western manufacturing capacity has expanded to a level to supply western countries and have leftover for exports.
    Perhaps this is one of the lessons we can learn from the pandemic - that a capacity gap in the production of vaccines exists which needs to be closed, and can then be used not only to respond quickly to a future pandemic but also to attempt to stamp out existing infectious diseases?

    The UK Government has already sunk a lot of funding into a new facility for the research and manufacture of vaccines: it was on the drawing board anyway when the Plague started, so they signed contracts and chucked a load of money at it, and told the contractors to hurry up. Now, what if that facility was expanded to give us something like the production capacity of the SII? Perhaps the UK and India put together could build enough strength to go after a whole range of deadly diseases, and the Treasury could pay for lower income countries to receive the vaccines for nothing?

    It would certainly be a good use of part of the controversial foreign aid budget, and one which the public might be happy to buy into.
    We are already the biggest donor to GAVI. If those vaccines happen to be British then great, but GAVI should procure the best available
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited January 2021
    Battle of the Bays

    TB 31 v GB 23 Q4 4.42 remaining
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    It's a pretty straightforward bit of reasoning, I wonder how long it took his people to get it through his skull.
    Of course You-Know-Who could change is mind, and decide to run after all - as a Republican or an Independent - IF he was NOT convicted and barred from seeking 2nd term.

    Well quite. Trump is, also thanks to being barred from Twitter, finally being sensible in keeping his mouth mostly shut, and it seems from that kind of report not seeking to provoke the Republican Senators, and as a strategy it could well work, but anyone talking themselves round from conviction to not convict should be wary that he has indeed 'learned his lesson'. Pretty sure some of them said that about the last impeachment.

    But seems to me only if they fear losing money in the long term will there be a chance of getting enough on board.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431

    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Apparently the UK has just overtaken Italy to have the highest Covid per capita death rate in the world, at 1,437 per million people. If my maths is right that means it's scrubbed about 0.15% of the UK population so far, and we're also comfortably in excess of the entire UK civilian death toll for both World Wars. This might have changed a little by the end of the pandemic, if other countries have been less thorough in their reporting or if our pandemic is ended by vaccination well before theirs, but it's hard to imagine that we won't be on the rostrum for unwanted medals in this category when this is all over.
    We are still significantly behind Belgium, to be fair. In terms of serious countries.

    And of course Cockney Covid has yet to work its terrible route through the rest of the world. We were just the first (probably) to suffer this hideous mutation: more transmissible, and probably more lethal. That's just dumb bad luck.

    And, of course, there is still the chance - quite high - that this ghastly virus will mutate again, somewhere in the world, and become even MORE virulent, and resistant to vaccine, and ravage us, again. In which case the UK will just be one other place that got ravaged, like all the others.

    It's best to stay cheerful. And ignore all these strong possibilities.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:

    I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.

    Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.

    She’s not though?

    My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.

    She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.

    Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government

    But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
    There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
    But equally there is no power vested in the Scottish government vis a vis constitutional matters. They're reserved powers.

    Any such poll would surely be boycotted by unionists and ignored, don't you think?
    Yup. In the same way a second Brexit referendum would have been boycotted by those who had voted Leave.
    A boycotted referendum is the worst possible outcome for the SNP. Makes them look ridiculous, deligitimises the entire cause, infuriates everyone, looks utterly mad and wasteful in a time of great sadness, would finish Sturgeon's career.

    She is being pressured to do something she knows is stupid and wrong. A grave dilemma for her
    Which is why I'm pretty sure she'll march her 'plan' up to the top of the hill and march it down again without actually starting it.

  • kle4 said:

    What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!

    You didn't accept his explanation on that?
    https://twitter.com/Brett_Samuels27/status/1349169559354355712
    'that very famous documentary about fictitious medieval England'

    I've not much idea what Rudy's courtroom skills and rhetorical powers were like in his prime, but I assume some level above what they are now.
    They were awesome, he went after the mob, including the five families, and nailed them, So much so that they put a hit out on him.

    In recent times only Aung San Suu Kyi has managed to shit their reputation like Rudy G has.
    Sumption coming up on the rail in the UK stakes (once you discount all the arseholes that didn't have a reputation to shit in the first place).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:

    I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.

    Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.

    She’s not though?

    My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.

    She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.

    Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government

    But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
    There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
    Sure but she can’t claim any more than that
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431

    kle4 said:

    What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!

    You didn't accept his explanation on that?
    https://twitter.com/Brett_Samuels27/status/1349169559354355712
    'that very famous documentary about fictitious medieval England'

    I've not much idea what Rudy's courtroom skills and rhetorical powers were like in his prime, but I assume some level above what they are now.
    They were awesome, he went after the mob, including the five families, and nailed them, So much so that they put a hit out on him.

    In recent times only Aung San Suu Kyi has managed to shit their reputation like Rudy G has.
    You've not heard of Ms Shami Chakrabarti, then?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    DougSeal said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    We've had this conversation more than once. Tory backbenchers, amplified by their Press cheer section, shout Open Up!
    The public, as evidenced by all polling, demurs.
    The PM caves to the loud minority.
    It's a debate that will never end. Even after the pandemic people will be on at each other about the rights and wrongs. Just like Brexit and Scottish Independence. These arguments are never finally settled. Opinion will ebb and flow forever.
    I rather think that the polling is not accounting for many shy "open uppers" - there certainly seem to be many people who are quite aggressive in their belief that they should do what they want.
  • Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!

    You didn't accept his explanation on that?
    https://twitter.com/Brett_Samuels27/status/1349169559354355712
    'that very famous documentary about fictitious medieval England'

    I've not much idea what Rudy's courtroom skills and rhetorical powers were like in his prime, but I assume some level above what they are now.
    They were awesome, he went after the mob, including the five families, and nailed them, So much so that they put a hit out on him.

    In recent times only Aung San Suu Kyi has managed to shit their reputation like Rudy G has.
    You've not heard of Ms Shami Chakrabarti, then?
    Only us political nerds in the UK of heard of her, whereas the world knew of how awesome Rudy G was (circa 2001) and ditto Aung San Suu Kyi.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:

    I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.

    Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.

    She’s not though?

    My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.

    She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.

    Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government

    But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
    There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
    Sure but she can’t claim any more than that
    I seem to remember another equally none binding advisory referendum that resulted in significant changes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!

    You didn't accept his explanation on that?
    https://twitter.com/Brett_Samuels27/status/1349169559354355712
    'that very famous documentary about fictitious medieval England'

    I've not much idea what Rudy's courtroom skills and rhetorical powers were like in his prime, but I assume some level above what they are now.
    They were awesome, he went after the mob, including the five families, and nailed them, So much so that they put a hit out on him.

    In recent times only Aung San Suu Kyi has managed to shit their reputation like Rudy G has.
    You've not heard of Ms Shami Chakrabarti, then?
    I don't think Ms Chakrabarti has been implicated in crimes against humanity - as Aung San Suu Kyi has.

    She sold her soul for a lot less than Wales, though.. Kennington was all she got.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431
    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:

    I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.

    Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.

    She’s not though?

    My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.

    She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.

    Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government

    But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
    There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
    But equally there is no power vested in the Scottish government vis a vis constitutional matters. They're reserved powers.

    Any such poll would surely be boycotted by unionists and ignored, don't you think?
    Yup. In the same way a second Brexit referendum would have been boycotted by those who had voted Leave.
    A boycotted referendum is the worst possible outcome for the SNP. Makes them look ridiculous, deligitimises the entire cause, infuriates everyone, looks utterly mad and wasteful in a time of great sadness, would finish Sturgeon's career.

    She is being pressured to do something she knows is stupid and wrong. A grave dilemma for her
    Which is why I'm pretty sure she'll march her 'plan' up to the top of the hill and march it down again without actually starting it.

    Yes, agreed. If you carefully read her statement, she's given herself just enough wiggle room, to NOT hold a wildcat referendum. Because she knows it is political suicide for the Nat cause. She clearly wants the SCOTUK to rule it out, thus stoking grievance yet more, and so on, leading to a Yes vote in 2025 under Starmer or whatever

    However I am not sure she can hold the line this time. There are enough ultra-Nats who want Scotland to go UDI that she will either have to resign, or yield to them. That is, if she isn't felled by Salmond interim
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What an utterly misleading headline. The right is there, they have to apply for it.
    But they need to be reminded (and probably helped) to do so.
  • kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom


    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Given that the model doesn't even have the correct historical numbers and also manages to measure number of deaths to two decimal places I would have doubts about it.
    Unless we have a very sharp drop in deaths, unlike previous waves, then another 20-30000 or so by then doesn't seem absurd, and at that the difference with the prediction would be noticable, but not massive.
    Sure but anyone can easily predict that.

    But it takes a special kind of fool to make predictions of deaths to two decimal places.
  • Crazy decision in the hand egg...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!

    You didn't accept his explanation on that?
    https://twitter.com/Brett_Samuels27/status/1349169559354355712
    'that very famous documentary about fictitious medieval England'

    I've not much idea what Rudy's courtroom skills and rhetorical powers were like in his prime, but I assume some level above what they are now.
    They were awesome, he went after the mob, including the five families, and nailed them, So much so that they put a hit out on him.

    In recent times only Aung San Suu Kyi has managed to shit their reputation like Rudy G has.
    You've not heard of Ms Shami Chakrabarti, then?
    Only us political nerds in the UK of heard of her, whereas the world knew of how awesome Rudy G was (circa 2001) and ditto Aung San Suu Kyi.
    A fair point. But in terms of domestic politics Chakrabarti takes the biscuit. Wot, no anti Semitism 'ere, yes I'll ave a peerage, Ta muchly

    To think she once carried the Olympic flag, and was beloved by all
  • DougSeal said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Over 20% of our deaths have come since the start of the year and these wankers are fucking gibbering about re-opening schools.

    GET
    A
    FUCKING
    GRIP

    More than a full fifth of the people who have died on Covid over the last 10 months died in the last 23 days,

    What is wrong with these wankers?
    I don't know if this is the vaccine effect, but people have really seemed oddly unaffected by the horror story on cases and deaths in the last month.
    It's got to be the vaccine story, hasn't it?

    There's a really awkward national conversation coming up. Up to now, it's been possible to shrug off the "shield the most vulnerable and then let the virus rip" theory by the utter impossibility of shielding that many people for that long in the interconnected communities we live in.

    By the middle of February, the most vulnerable will have been vaccinated, but letting it rip will still be an insane thing to do, because there will still be more than enough people to collapse the NHS pretty easily. But headlines like this are just going to get louder and more frequent.
    We've had this conversation more than once. Tory backbenchers, amplified by their Press cheer section, shout Open Up!
    The public, as evidenced by all polling, demurs.
    The PM caves to the loud minority.
    It's a debate that will never end. Even after the pandemic people will be on at each other about the rights and wrongs. Just like Brexit and Scottish Independence. These arguments are never finally settled. Opinion will ebb and flow forever.
    I rather think that the polling is not accounting for many shy "open uppers" - there certainly seem to be many people who are quite aggressive in their belief that they should do what they want.
    As with taxes people think restrictions should be for other people.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alistair said:

    DougSeal said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:

    I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.

    Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.

    She’s not though?

    My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.

    She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.

    Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government

    But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
    There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
    As I said up threat, an advisory poll is basically an opinion poll. I cannot see any firm legal basis to stop one. But then again as soon as I step out of my employment law cul-de-sac I'm on shakey ground.
    I am in agreement. I have a handy flowchart

    1) Does Holyrood have the power to hold referendums in general?
    If Yes goto 2)
    In No goto END-Bad)

    2) Does a non-binding referendum mean that any actual change is guaranteed to take place
    If Yes goto 3)
    In No goto 4)

    3) Really?
    Actually no you are right, it doesn't goto 4)

    4)Is there any law that limits the topics a non-binding referendum the Scottish government calls can be on (Bearing in mind the result of the referendum doesn't actually change anything)?
    If Yes goto 5)
    If No got END-Good)

    5) Are you able to actually point at in the law book?
    if Yes goto 6)
    No got END-Good)

    6) Go on then, give us a link?
    If able to give link then goto END-Bad
    Otherwise got END-Good

    END-Bad) Holyrood does not have the power to hold a non-binding referendum on Sindy
    END-Good) Holyrood can call a non binding advisory referendum on any topic it likes.
    I’m not sure it does them any good though - you get a Unionist boycott and turnout down. They’ll look like they are talking to themselves. And unless they are careful they might face a misfeasance claim (that’s a E&W legal concept - does Scotland have the equivalent?)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom


    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Given that the model doesn't even have the correct historical numbers and also manages to measure number of deaths to two decimal places I would have doubts about it.
    Unless we have a very sharp drop in deaths, unlike previous waves, then another 20-30000 or so by then doesn't seem absurd, and at that the difference with the prediction would be noticable, but not massive.
    20 thousand extra deaths is less than 20 days at current run rate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What an utterly misleading headline. The right is there, they have to apply for it.
    But they need to be reminded (and probably helped) to do so.
    Perhaps, but that isn't the headline.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    Looks as though London based vaccine centres are struggling to get people through the doors, my dad got sent the text today and booked a jab for Tuesday in a, err, modern urban locale. I imagine this centre is struggling because people are watching stupid WhatsApp videos with fake Imams from Iran or Pakistan (actually somewhere in Birmingham) saying that vaccines aren't Halal.

    I really think the government needs to get a grip on fake news spreading on WhatsApp, it's filling the minds of people with absolute nonsense.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431
    MaxPB said:

    Looks as though London based vaccine centres are struggling to get people through the doors, my dad got sent the text today and booked a jab for Tuesday in a, err, modern urban locale. I imagine this centre is struggling because people are watching stupid WhatsApp videos with fake Imams from Iran or Pakistan (actually somewhere in Birmingham) saying that vaccines aren't Halal.

    I really think the government needs to get a grip on fake news spreading on WhatsApp, it's filling the minds of people with absolute nonsense.

    Dawkins' Disease, as Mister Rob Smithson named it, about ten months ago. Killing off the faithful, relentless and Darwinian
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    Looks as though London based vaccine centres are struggling to get people through the doors, my dad got sent the text today and booked a jab for Tuesday in a, err, modern urban locale. I imagine this centre is struggling because people are watching stupid WhatsApp videos with fake Imams from Iran or Pakistan (actually somewhere in Birmingham) saying that vaccines aren't Halal.

    I really think the government needs to get a grip on fake news spreading on WhatsApp, it's filling the minds of people with absolute nonsense.

    London is consistently rock bottom of the league on the English regional vaccination figures (I've been paying a fair amount of attention to them since those reports that the East of England, where we live, and London were both doing poorly, but we seem to have got our act together now.)

    Anyway, whatever's hampering the rollout in London needs to be dealt with quickly, or they're going to turn into a disease reservoir that will compromise the efforts of the rest of the country. We don't want to be placed in the invidious position of having to choose between waiting weeks or months to lift restrictions later in the year whilst we try to prod the capital into catching up, or attempting to quarantine it whilst the rest of us get on with our lives.
  • Leon said:


    A fair point. But in terms of domestic politics Chakrabarti takes the biscuit. Wot, no anti Semitism 'ere, yes I'll ave a peerage, Ta muchly

    To think she once carried the Olympic flag, and was beloved by all

    Antisemitism eh? Lest we forget:
    Leon said:


    Bless, You think an unexpected early deal between - cough - Israel- - and - cough - Pfizer - was made on the basis of the sharing of medical data?

    Israel. And. Pfizer.

    Hm.

    Or the deal was made because Israel agreed to pay BILLIONS over the odds to secure the global life-raft of the Jewish people? Colour me cynical, but I suspect a large amount of money played a significant role

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    What a world we live in.

    SNP MSP blocks SNP MP is the content I'm on Twitter for.

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1353447558836850698

    I don't know what's going on but I guarantee that MacNeil is in the wrong.
    They had a brouhaha over this

    https://twitter.com/glasgowcathcart/status/1352984692887314434

    Edit - Also see some of the replies by Dornan underneath that tweet.
    My political instincts proven once again to be perfect.

    The palpable sense of MacNeil's desperation as plan B is revealed can be felt across the Internet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Looks as though London based vaccine centres are struggling to get people through the doors, my dad got sent the text today and booked a jab for Tuesday in a, err, modern urban locale. I imagine this centre is struggling because people are watching stupid WhatsApp videos with fake Imams from Iran or Pakistan (actually somewhere in Birmingham) saying that vaccines aren't Halal.

    I really think the government needs to get a grip on fake news spreading on WhatsApp, it's filling the minds of people with absolute nonsense.

    Dawkins' Disease, as Mister Rob Smithson named it, about ten months ago. Killing off the faithful, relentless and Darwinian
    My church is a vaccination centre, Archbishop Welby has already been vaccinated, that certainly does not apply to the C of E
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    rcs1000 said:

    Any guesses where an independent Scotland would fit into this list?

    Plucky Luxembourg paying its share, I see.
    EU contribution per capita -
    Luxembourg - €2,700
    Poland - €290

    GDP (PPP) per capita -
    Luxembourg - $112,000
    Poland - $34,000

    How the actual fuck do they work these numbers out?
    No idea. Must be tres difficile
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    edited January 2021
    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:

    I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.

    Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.

    She’s not though?

    My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.

    She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.

    Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government

    But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
    There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
    Sure but she can’t claim any more than that
    Just the high ground, when Johnson says no to independence after a big pro-indy vote.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431

    Leon said:


    A fair point. But in terms of domestic politics Chakrabarti takes the biscuit. Wot, no anti Semitism 'ere, yes I'll ave a peerage, Ta muchly

    To think she once carried the Olympic flag, and was beloved by all

    Antisemitism eh? Lest we forget:
    Leon said:


    Bless, You think an unexpected early deal between - cough - Israel- - and - cough - Pfizer - was made on the basis of the sharing of medical data?

    Israel. And. Pfizer.

    Hm.

    Or the deal was made because Israel agreed to pay BILLIONS over the odds to secure the global life-raft of the Jewish people? Colour me cynical, but I suspect a large amount of money played a significant role

    Believe it or not. my remark was PHILO-Semitic.

    Israel makes great efforts to preserve Jewish lives, as is only right, in a nation expressly conceived as the ultimate protector of the Jews, after the Holocaust.

    Israel has many hideous flaws, but in this case, it acted wisely, and with foresight, and tried to do its one, primary, overrriding task. Whether it will succeed is another matter. The data fluctuate.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431

    MaxPB said:

    Looks as though London based vaccine centres are struggling to get people through the doors, my dad got sent the text today and booked a jab for Tuesday in a, err, modern urban locale. I imagine this centre is struggling because people are watching stupid WhatsApp videos with fake Imams from Iran or Pakistan (actually somewhere in Birmingham) saying that vaccines aren't Halal.

    I really think the government needs to get a grip on fake news spreading on WhatsApp, it's filling the minds of people with absolute nonsense.

    London is consistently rock bottom of the league on the English regional vaccination figures (I've been paying a fair amount of attention to them since those reports that the East of England, where we live, and London were both doing poorly, but we seem to have got our act together now.)

    Anyway, whatever's hampering the rollout in London needs to be dealt with quickly, or they're going to turn into a disease reservoir that will compromise the efforts of the rest of the country. We don't want to be placed in the invidious position of having to choose between waiting weeks or months to lift restrictions later in the year whilst we try to prod the capital into catching up, or attempting to quarantine it whilst the rest of us get on with our lives.
    As I've said before, we may very soon reach a stage where vaccination is either compulsory, or de facto compulsory
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:

    I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.

    Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.

    She’s not though?

    My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.

    She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.

    Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government

    But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
    There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
    Sure but she can’t claim any more than that
    Just the high ground, when Johnson says no to independence after a big pro-indy vote.
    The latest poll (Sunday Times) says 52 Yes and 48 No. That is not a huge pro indy surge. Some people may recognise the figures, and shudder
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,354
    Alistair said:

    What a world we live in.

    SNP MSP blocks SNP MP is the content I'm on Twitter for.

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1353447558836850698

    I don't know what's going on but I guarantee that MacNeil is in the wrong.
    what odds
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Looks as though London based vaccine centres are struggling to get people through the doors, my dad got sent the text today and booked a jab for Tuesday in a, err, modern urban locale. I imagine this centre is struggling because people are watching stupid WhatsApp videos with fake Imams from Iran or Pakistan (actually somewhere in Birmingham) saying that vaccines aren't Halal.

    I really think the government needs to get a grip on fake news spreading on WhatsApp, it's filling the minds of people with absolute nonsense.

    London is consistently rock bottom of the league on the English regional vaccination figures (I've been paying a fair amount of attention to them since those reports that the East of England, where we live, and London were both doing poorly, but we seem to have got our act together now.)

    Anyway, whatever's hampering the rollout in London needs to be dealt with quickly, or they're going to turn into a disease reservoir that will compromise the efforts of the rest of the country. We don't want to be placed in the invidious position of having to choose between waiting weeks or months to lift restrictions later in the year whilst we try to prod the capital into catching up, or attempting to quarantine it whilst the rest of us get on with our lives.
    As I've said before, we may very soon reach a stage where vaccination is either compulsory, or de facto compulsory
    The problem is that a lot of these people don't interact with wider society, they stick to their own shops and their own ghettoised areas. They don't go to anywhere that will bother to check a vaccine passport in the first place and they believe that vaccination is Haram, or the work of Satan etc... because some c*** posted a video saying so on Facebook or WhatsApp.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,354
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    What a world we live in.

    SNP MSP blocks SNP MP is the content I'm on Twitter for.

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1353447558836850698

    I don't know what's going on but I guarantee that MacNeil is in the wrong.
    They had a brouhaha over this

    https://twitter.com/glasgowcathcart/status/1352984692887314434

    Edit - Also see some of the replies by Dornan underneath that tweet.
    My political instincts proven once again to be perfect.

    The palpable sense of MacNeil's desperation as plan B is revealed can be felt across the Internet.
    No plan B , just more waffle. We will have a referendum when Boris lets us garbage.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:

    I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.

    Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.

    She’s not though?

    My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.

    She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.

    Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government

    But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
    There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
    Sure but she can’t claim any more than that
    Just the high ground, when Johnson says no to independence after a big pro-indy vote.
    The latest poll (Sunday Times) says 52 Yes and 48 No. That is not a huge pro indy surge. Some people may recognise the figures, and shudder
    It was a large enough margin to leave the EU.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,354

    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Apparently the UK has just overtaken Italy to have the highest Covid per capita death rate in the world, at 1,437 per million people. If my maths is right that means it's scrubbed about 0.15% of the UK population so far, and we're also comfortably in excess of the entire UK civilian death toll for both World Wars. This might have changed a little by the end of the pandemic, if other countries have been less thorough in their reporting or if our pandemic is ended by vaccination well before theirs, but it's hard to imagine that we won't be on the rostrum for unwanted medals in this category when this is all over.
    England must be miles ahead then given all the other UK nations are well under their numbers.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    edited January 2021

    ONE of Lee Rigby’s killers is fighting for life in hospital after being struck down by Covid-19.

    Michael Adebowale, 29, was taken from Broadmoor last week after his condition rapidly went downhill.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13837562/lee-rigby-killer-fighting-for-life-covid/

    Karma strikes. Perhaps Covid-19 will show him the same level of mercy he showed Lee Rigby.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,354

    Alistair said:

    What a world we live in.

    SNP MSP blocks SNP MP is the content I'm on Twitter for.

    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1353447558836850698

    I don't know what's going on but I guarantee that MacNeil is in the wrong.
    They had a brouhaha over this

    https://twitter.com/glasgowcathcart/status/1352984692887314434

    Edit - Also see some of the replies by Dornan underneath that tweet.
    Dornan is a clown
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:


    A fair point. But in terms of domestic politics Chakrabarti takes the biscuit. Wot, no anti Semitism 'ere, yes I'll ave a peerage, Ta muchly

    To think she once carried the Olympic flag, and was beloved by all

    Antisemitism eh? Lest we forget:
    Leon said:


    Bless, You think an unexpected early deal between - cough - Israel- - and - cough - Pfizer - was made on the basis of the sharing of medical data?

    Israel. And. Pfizer.

    Hm.

    Or the deal was made because Israel agreed to pay BILLIONS over the odds to secure the global life-raft of the Jewish people? Colour me cynical, but I suspect a large amount of money played a significant role

    Believe it or not. my remark was PHILO-Semitic.

    Israel makes great efforts to preserve Jewish lives, as is only right, in a nation expressly conceived as the ultimate protector of the Jews, after the Holocaust.

    Israel has many hideous flaws, but in this case, it acted wisely, and with foresight, and tried to do its one, primary, overrriding task. Whether it will succeed is another matter. The data fluctuate.
    "Making mendacious, dehumanizing, demonizing, or stereotypical allegations about Jews as such or the power of Jews as collective — such as, especially but not exclusively, the myth about a world Jewish conspiracy or of Jews controlling the media, economy, government or other societal institutions."

    "Accusing Jewish citizens of being more loyal to Israel, or to the alleged priorities of Jews worldwide, than to the interests of their own nations."

    Pfizer, whose CEO is Jewish.
    Israel.
    And the "cough cough".

    I mean, what are we supposed to think? People don't do that "cough cough" thing when they're handing out praise.
    Oh, and the money thing. These insinuations always end up being about money, don't they?

    I see you, Leon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    edited January 2021
    MaxPB said:

    I also see no reason why we couldn't with proper isolation and testing measures do proper travel corridors now with countries adopting similarly tough border policies and low infection, high vaccination rates. At least once we've got to that stage and a few other countries have as well.

    The EU really, really needs to secure it's external border (even from us) otherwise they will continue to import cases and it will never go away.

    I can't think why international travel is necessary for more than a tiny number of people, especially with modern communications.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    Is an advisory referendum then followed by a confirmatory referendum on the deal, with another referendum on joining the EU to follow? How wonderful.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited January 2021
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Apparently the UK has just overtaken Italy to have the highest Covid per capita death rate in the world, at 1,437 per million people. If my maths is right that means it's scrubbed about 0.15% of the UK population so far, and we're also comfortably in excess of the entire UK civilian death toll for both World Wars. This might have changed a little by the end of the pandemic, if other countries have been less thorough in their reporting or if our pandemic is ended by vaccination well before theirs, but it's hard to imagine that we won't be on the rostrum for unwanted medals in this category when this is all over.
    England must be miles ahead then given all the other UK nations are well under their numbers.
    The extent depends on how counted, though Northern Ireland getting the gold star either way.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

    Deaths within 28 days of positive test rate per 100k

    Wales 143.7
    Scotland 104.4
    Northern Ireland 91.4
    England 152.7

    Deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate per 100k

    Wales 171.2
    Scotland 129.4
    Northern Ireland 104.3
    England 144.6
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Thinking I'd do my bit in discouraging local anti-Tories from being put off the vaccine, I put a short post on Facebook. Boom! - it's been shared across multiple local forums, with hundreds of likes but also a dozen anti-Vaxxers weighing in and fighting furiously in the trenches. I don't really get what makes them do it.

    This is what I said:

    Still hearing reports of people refusing vaccinations, and those of us who are not fans of the Government and dislike Ministerial boasting (as though Britain's death record was anythng to be proud of) have a duty to stress that being sceptical about Conservatives is no reason not to protect yourself and your family.
    Some frequent questions and honest answers:
    1. Are there serious side-effects? (Virtually never.)
    2. Might you get the bug anyway? (Yes, but much less likely, and stay sensibly distanced for now anyway.)
    3. Is the 12(+?)-week gap scientifically based? (No, but it's still much better than nothing.)
    4. Is vaccine X better than vaccine Y? (Yes, there are differences in effectiveness, but they're all much better than nothing.)
    5. Should we trust Boris Johnson? (Really not relevant. Trust the science.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    A fair point. But in terms of domestic politics Chakrabarti takes the biscuit. Wot, no anti Semitism 'ere, yes I'll ave a peerage, Ta muchly

    To think she once carried the Olympic flag, and was beloved by all

    Antisemitism eh? Lest we forget:
    Leon said:


    Bless, You think an unexpected early deal between - cough - Israel- - and - cough - Pfizer - was made on the basis of the sharing of medical data?

    Israel. And. Pfizer.

    Hm.

    Or the deal was made because Israel agreed to pay BILLIONS over the odds to secure the global life-raft of the Jewish people? Colour me cynical, but I suspect a large amount of money played a significant role

    Believe it or not. my remark was PHILO-Semitic.

    Israel makes great efforts to preserve Jewish lives, as is only right, in a nation expressly conceived as the ultimate protector of the Jews, after the Holocaust.

    Israel has many hideous flaws, but in this case, it acted wisely, and with foresight, and tried to do its one, primary, overrriding task. Whether it will succeed is another matter. The data fluctuate.
    "Making mendacious, dehumanizing, demonizing, or stereotypical allegations about Jews as such or the power of Jews as collective — such as, especially but not exclusively, the myth about a world Jewish conspiracy or of Jews controlling the media, economy, government or other societal institutions."

    "Accusing Jewish citizens of being more loyal to Israel, or to the alleged priorities of Jews worldwide, than to the interests of their own nations."

    Pfizer, whose CEO is Jewish.
    Israel.
    And the "cough cough".

    I mean, what are we supposed to think? People don't do that "cough cough" thing when they're handing out praise.
    Oh, and the money thing. These insinuations always end up being about money, don't they?

    I see you, Leon.
    lol. Given the history of anti-Semitism, across all societies, and throughout history, if I were Jewish, I would be - albeit with many heavy criticisms, and conditions - overall pro-the-existence-of-Israel, and very grateful for their clever deployment of the vaccine early on.

    If they paid over the odds for the jab, who cares, so did the UK; and the cost of the plague, when it gets out of control, is much much higher. As we have seen
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ONE of Lee Rigby’s killers is fighting for life in hospital after being struck down by Covid-19.

    Michael Adebowale, 29, was taken from Broadmoor last week after his condition rapidly went downhill.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13837562/lee-rigby-killer-fighting-for-life-covid/

    I hope he recovers. I don't want him getting off easy.

    He needs to serve the other 37 years of his minimum sentence, and then get repeatedly rejected for parole.
    I think you mean “survives” not “recovers”. Just reflect on 37 years in prison with Long Covid
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    We've reached 10% of the population in terms of UK jabs. 13% of adults.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    What a great précis and timeline of Trump’s final utter cuntery the Downfall programme is.

    Rudy just before the assault on the Capitol: This will be trial by COMBAT!

    You didn't accept his explanation on that?
    https://twitter.com/Brett_Samuels27/status/1349169559354355712
    'that very famous documentary about fictitious medieval England'

    I've not much idea what Rudy's courtroom skills and rhetorical powers were like in his prime, but I assume some level above what they are now.
    They were awesome, he went after the mob, including the five families, and nailed them, So much so that they put a hit out on him.

    In recent times only Aung San Suu Kyi has managed to shit their reputation like Rudy G has.
    You've not heard of Ms Shami Chakrabarti, then?
    I don't think Ms Chakrabarti has been implicated in crimes against humanity - as Aung San Suu Kyi has.

    She sold her soul for a lot less than Wales, though.. Kennington was all she got.
    You know that Richie Rich’s descendants still own £250m of property in Holland Park? It might have been a reasonable trade - one immortal soul for the rest of his descendants not having to worry
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,431
    edited January 2021
    just watched the Michael Fagan "intruder" episode of The Crown

    Having met Fagan, several times, I can confirm that it is a true portrayal of the man, albeit tinged with leftwing scriptwriterly bias. He would not have said these absurd Corbyn-manifesto sentences.

    But they successfully captured the essence of him. A bit mad, but smart
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    Andy_JS said:

    We've reached 10% of the population in terms of UK jabs. 13% of adults.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

    Guinea have done 55.

    Not thousand.

    55.

    That'll be the ruling family sorted then....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Apparently the UK has just overtaken Italy to have the highest Covid per capita death rate in the world, at 1,437 per million people. If my maths is right that means it's scrubbed about 0.15% of the UK population so far, and we're also comfortably in excess of the entire UK civilian death toll for both World Wars. This might have changed a little by the end of the pandemic, if other countries have been less thorough in their reporting or if our pandemic is ended by vaccination well before theirs, but it's hard to imagine that we won't be on the rostrum for unwanted medals in this category when this is all over.
    England must be miles ahead then given all the other UK nations are well under their numbers.
    The extent depends on how counted, though Northern Ireland getting the gold star either way.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

    Deaths within 28 days of positive test rate per 100k

    Wales 143.7
    Scotland 104.4
    Northern Ireland 91.4
    England 152.7

    Deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate per 100k

    Wales 171.2
    Scotland 129.4
    Northern Ireland 104.3
    England 144.6
    I would be interested in respective excess deaths per 100,000. I still consider that to be the most reliable measure, particularly when comparing relative performance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,089
    edited January 2021
    We are going to pill popping and nasal spraying our way through the next few years...


    A study has raised hopes that a pill that costs less 30p and is commonly used to treat gout could reduce the risk of people who catch Covid-19 having to be admitted to hospital.

    A trial by Canadian researchers involving more than 4,000 subjects suggested that taking a daily dose of colchicine at home reduced the risk of hospital admission by 25 per cent in people with underlying health conditions.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/colchicine-pill-that-treats-gout-could-cut-risk-of-hospital-admission-for-covid-patients-73g8jc0vv


    Nasal spray 'that can stop you catching Covid for up to two days' could be sold in high street pharmacies by summer

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9181865/Nasal-spray-stop-catching-Covid-two-days-available-summer.html
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    edited January 2021

    Thinking I'd do my bit in discouraging local anti-Tories from being put off the vaccine, I put a short post on Facebook. Boom! - it's been shared across multiple local forums, with hundreds of likes but also a dozen anti-Vaxxers weighing in and fighting furiously in the trenches. I don't really get what makes them do it.

    This is what I said:

    Still hearing reports of people refusing vaccinations, and those of us who are not fans of the Government and dislike Ministerial boasting (as though Britain's death record was anythng to be proud of) have a duty to stress that being sceptical about Conservatives is no reason not to protect yourself and your family.
    Some frequent questions and honest answers:
    1. Are there serious side-effects? (Virtually never.)
    2. Might you get the bug anyway? (Yes, but much less likely, and stay sensibly distanced for now anyway.)
    3. Is the 12(+?)-week gap scientifically based? (No, but it's still much better than nothing.)
    4. Is vaccine X better than vaccine Y? (Yes, there are differences in effectiveness, but they're all much better than nothing.)
    5. Should we trust Boris Johnson? (Really not relevant. Trust the science.)

    You're under threat of being barred from FB mate.
    For posting dangerously sensible, factual and politically nuanced content.
    Guilty as charged!
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    A fair point. But in terms of domestic politics Chakrabarti takes the biscuit. Wot, no anti Semitism 'ere, yes I'll ave a peerage, Ta muchly

    To think she once carried the Olympic flag, and was beloved by all

    Antisemitism eh? Lest we forget:
    Leon said:


    Bless, You think an unexpected early deal between - cough - Israel- - and - cough - Pfizer - was made on the basis of the sharing of medical data?

    Israel. And. Pfizer.

    Hm.

    Or the deal was made because Israel agreed to pay BILLIONS over the odds to secure the global life-raft of the Jewish people? Colour me cynical, but I suspect a large amount of money played a significant role

    Believe it or not. my remark was PHILO-Semitic.

    Israel makes great efforts to preserve Jewish lives, as is only right, in a nation expressly conceived as the ultimate protector of the Jews, after the Holocaust.

    Israel has many hideous flaws, but in this case, it acted wisely, and with foresight, and tried to do its one, primary, overrriding task. Whether it will succeed is another matter. The data fluctuate.
    "Making mendacious, dehumanizing, demonizing, or stereotypical allegations about Jews as such or the power of Jews as collective — such as, especially but not exclusively, the myth about a world Jewish conspiracy or of Jews controlling the media, economy, government or other societal institutions."

    "Accusing Jewish citizens of being more loyal to Israel, or to the alleged priorities of Jews worldwide, than to the interests of their own nations."

    Pfizer, whose CEO is Jewish.
    Israel.
    And the "cough cough".

    I mean, what are we supposed to think? People don't do that "cough cough" thing when they're handing out praise.
    Oh, and the money thing. These insinuations always end up being about money, don't they?

    I see you, Leon.
    lol. Given the history of anti-Semitism, across all societies, and throughout history, if I were Jewish, I would be - albeit with many heavy criticisms, and conditions - overall pro-the-existence-of-Israel, and very grateful for their clever deployment of the vaccine early on.

    If they paid over the odds for the jab, who cares, so did the UK; and the cost of the plague, when it gets out of control, is much much higher. As we have seen
    That seems fair, but you should still probably stop talking about the money, since there's (as far as I know) no evidence for it, and Ms Batty is correct that it's not a good look.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Endillion said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    A fair point. But in terms of domestic politics Chakrabarti takes the biscuit. Wot, no anti Semitism 'ere, yes I'll ave a peerage, Ta muchly

    To think she once carried the Olympic flag, and was beloved by all

    Antisemitism eh? Lest we forget:
    Leon said:


    Bless, You think an unexpected early deal between - cough - Israel- - and - cough - Pfizer - was made on the basis of the sharing of medical data?

    Israel. And. Pfizer.

    Hm.

    Or the deal was made because Israel agreed to pay BILLIONS over the odds to secure the global life-raft of the Jewish people? Colour me cynical, but I suspect a large amount of money played a significant role

    Believe it or not. my remark was PHILO-Semitic.

    Israel makes great efforts to preserve Jewish lives, as is only right, in a nation expressly conceived as the ultimate protector of the Jews, after the Holocaust.

    Israel has many hideous flaws, but in this case, it acted wisely, and with foresight, and tried to do its one, primary, overrriding task. Whether it will succeed is another matter. The data fluctuate.
    "Making mendacious, dehumanizing, demonizing, or stereotypical allegations about Jews as such or the power of Jews as collective — such as, especially but not exclusively, the myth about a world Jewish conspiracy or of Jews controlling the media, economy, government or other societal institutions."

    "Accusing Jewish citizens of being more loyal to Israel, or to the alleged priorities of Jews worldwide, than to the interests of their own nations."

    Pfizer, whose CEO is Jewish.
    Israel.
    And the "cough cough".

    I mean, what are we supposed to think? People don't do that "cough cough" thing when they're handing out praise.
    Oh, and the money thing. These insinuations always end up being about money, don't they?

    I see you, Leon.
    lol. Given the history of anti-Semitism, across all societies, and throughout history, if I were Jewish, I would be - albeit with many heavy criticisms, and conditions - overall pro-the-existence-of-Israel, and very grateful for their clever deployment of the vaccine early on.

    If they paid over the odds for the jab, who cares, so did the UK; and the cost of the plague, when it gets out of control, is much much higher. As we have seen
    That seems fair, but you should still probably stop talking about the money, since there's (as far as I know) no evidence for it, and Ms Batty is correct that it's not a good look.
    I thought the Isreali PM was criticised for spending too much on vaccine procurement?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    RobD said:

    Endillion said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    A fair point. But in terms of domestic politics Chakrabarti takes the biscuit. Wot, no anti Semitism 'ere, yes I'll ave a peerage, Ta muchly

    To think she once carried the Olympic flag, and was beloved by all

    Antisemitism eh? Lest we forget:
    Leon said:


    Bless, You think an unexpected early deal between - cough - Israel- - and - cough - Pfizer - was made on the basis of the sharing of medical data?

    Israel. And. Pfizer.

    Hm.

    Or the deal was made because Israel agreed to pay BILLIONS over the odds to secure the global life-raft of the Jewish people? Colour me cynical, but I suspect a large amount of money played a significant role

    Believe it or not. my remark was PHILO-Semitic.

    Israel makes great efforts to preserve Jewish lives, as is only right, in a nation expressly conceived as the ultimate protector of the Jews, after the Holocaust.

    Israel has many hideous flaws, but in this case, it acted wisely, and with foresight, and tried to do its one, primary, overrriding task. Whether it will succeed is another matter. The data fluctuate.
    "Making mendacious, dehumanizing, demonizing, or stereotypical allegations about Jews as such or the power of Jews as collective — such as, especially but not exclusively, the myth about a world Jewish conspiracy or of Jews controlling the media, economy, government or other societal institutions."

    "Accusing Jewish citizens of being more loyal to Israel, or to the alleged priorities of Jews worldwide, than to the interests of their own nations."

    Pfizer, whose CEO is Jewish.
    Israel.
    And the "cough cough".

    I mean, what are we supposed to think? People don't do that "cough cough" thing when they're handing out praise.
    Oh, and the money thing. These insinuations always end up being about money, don't they?

    I see you, Leon.
    lol. Given the history of anti-Semitism, across all societies, and throughout history, if I were Jewish, I would be - albeit with many heavy criticisms, and conditions - overall pro-the-existence-of-Israel, and very grateful for their clever deployment of the vaccine early on.

    If they paid over the odds for the jab, who cares, so did the UK; and the cost of the plague, when it gets out of control, is much much higher. As we have seen
    That seems fair, but you should still probably stop talking about the money, since there's (as far as I know) no evidence for it, and Ms Batty is correct that it's not a good look.
    I thought the Isreali PM was criticised for spending too much on vaccine procurement?
    None of the numbers being bandied around are remotely consistent with "billions over the odds".

    Anyway, paying more for priority access is just business. The insinuations would only be problematic if they were alleging side deals being done under the table.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    Leon said:

    just watched the Michael Fagan "intruder" episode of The Crown

    Having met Fagan, several times, I can confirm that it is a true portrayal of the man, albeit tinged with leftwing scriptwriterly bias. He would not have said these absurd Corbyn-manifesto sentences.

    But they successfully captured the essence of him. A bit mad, but smart

    If you don't mind me asking, how did you come to meet him?
This discussion has been closed.