Should get to over 500k today, hopefully we do that on a regular basis next week for 3-3.5m doses per week. It would completely short circuit the whole 12 week cycle slowdown that people are worried about. AZ have really smashed it, with government help.
I said something about the AZ vaccine being the real deal at the time it was first announced.
What’s annoying is I can’t find the quote to prove it using Google and I can’t be bothered to scroll through all the old threads to find it, so you’ll just have to take my word for my awesome prescience.
If you are on mobile the search function on vanilla is really quite good now. You can filter by author and date range.
It is how I keep turning up peoples' (my own included) blown predictions.
Sir, you are officially a genius. I didn’t know about that feature.
Here it is, in all its glory: If it's 90% effective on a more rigorous testing regime than the others, costs a tenth to make and can be stored in a bog-standard piece of kit without spending zillions on dry ice:
Then screw the other vaccines, this is the real deal.
South Africa will pay $5.25 per dose for COVID-19 vaccines from the Serum Institute of India (SII) - well above what others, including developed nations, are paying for the same shots, local newspaper Business Day reported on Thursday.
The Business Day report cited health department Deputy Director-General Anban Pillay as saying the price was based on South Africa’s level of development and its past investment in research and development.
“We were advised that SII has applied a tiered pricing system, and given that (South Africa) is an upper-middle-income country, their price is $5.25. The explanation we were given for why other high-income countries have a lower price is that they have invested in the (research and development), hence the discount on the price,” it quoted him as saying.
The SII, which Business Day said did not respond to requests for comment, is one of several manufacturers licensed by AstraZeneca to make its COVID-19 vaccine. South Africa is due to procure 1.5 million of the shots from the institute.
Other nations or blocs are paying much less. In June, for instance, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France negotiated a price of around $2.50 per shot for 300 million doses from AstraZeneca as part of a European deal to secure supplies of the drug.
Looks scandalous to me. South Africa is certainly not an "Upper middle income" country per head - it's 92nd, behind countries like Colombia and a third of Italy (https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/). Has Italy really been been investing massively in AZ's R&D?
Another advantage of bilingualism in Canada is that the PM is -- de facto -- bilingual. It is an unwritten law.
So there is an intellectual hurdle for the PM to overcome.
It acts as a safety valve to prevent the really stupid ever becoming Canadian PM.
Drakeford is bilingual.
Johnson speaks a great many languages.
Sturgeon so far as I know only speaks English.
I’m not sure your premise is valid...
Edit - doesn’t Paul Davies speak Welsh as his first language as well?
I was more thinking that Canada could never get someone as grossly ignorant as Trump -- because the Canadian PM has to be bilingual.
Johnson, Drakeford & Paul Davies all have serious flaws as politicians, but they are intellectual giants compared to an ignoramus like Tump.
It's actually a very good point and it can be broadened to render it even more effective. If we restrict high political office to those who can speak at least one foreign language AND can play a musical instrument (other than drums) this would at a stroke protect us from the worst of the right wing populist types.
But not from Boris Johnson, who is the most pressing issue on that front right now.
Does he tinkle the ivories?
Wasn't aware he did.
"Boris Johnson learnt to play the trombone at school and started piano lessons at 17. He says he plays On Top of Old Smokey and When the Saints Go Marching In on his piano at home.".
The Prime Minister and partner Carrie Symonds have taken delivery of a piano. The upright instrument was brought into Downing Street to be placed in their official residence.
That sounds to me like he doesn't play in the sense that me and YBarddCwsc are meaning. Touch of the house of the rising suns about it. Borderline at best.
Careful, you'll have theuniondivvie on your case for providing a 'what they really meant' service for YBarddCwsc, which is apparently a thing, who must speak for himself. Not that he takes things seriously.
I freely admit I'm running with a ball that is not mine and in a direction that many will be finding a little too unchartered for their risk appetite. But it's done with conviction and integrity.
Not much of a fan of the EU's vaccination response, but the 'if the current pace persists' is a nonsense method of analysis, particularly in a time of supply shortage.
We still have many many more weeks before we any chance of relaxation in lockdown.
I'm going for the schools reopening after Easter and pubs and restaurants by second May Bank Holiday weekend.
Me too, although I think the primaries may reopen earlier.
I reckon we get the primaries back once the whole of phase one of the JCVI plan is completed, or had their first jabs at least (hopefully at some point during April,) but the secondaries will get written off until September. Now the exams have been scrubbed the pressure to get older, more lethal plague vectors back into classrooms is significantly reduced.
I’ve no idea why the Scottish media, Scottish opposition and the UK media are so poor at holding the SNP to account.
One benefit of Indy - at least they can be held to account for it
Re. why the Scottish media, Scottish opposition and the UK media are so poor at holding the SNP to account and you having no idea, you're presumably making an exception for this 'devastating criticism from an experienced and well respected journalist'?
Any view on precisely how the old holding to account would improve after indy?
We still have many many more weeks before we any chance of relaxation in lockdown.
Absolutely correct.
It looks like schools will now be closed until Easter (4 April), summer term will start around Mon 12 April and children may well go back then.
Possibly some sort of national Tier 3 end March, maybe Tier 2 mid April, visits to the pub for Easter look gone now.
Boris will want to see these indicators before any significant easing: - national 7 date rate below 100 per 100,000 - this is basically the same as 10,000 cases a day - hospital admissions less than 10,000 in total ie number of people in the hospital at one time - vaccines at 20m + plus clear evidence that they are reducing cases/hospitalisation.
We might get there by end March, we will do on cases based on current progression, and almost certainly on vaccines by then, probably by end Feb but we need the extra month to see how that is affecting infections etc.
We need to remember local deals, such as the Greens stepping aside in Oxford West. If that is repeated next election, that could easily turn Con Gain in LD Hold.
You are assuming everyone voted for the ‘Remain Alliance’ candidate when told to.
I’m not sure that is the case.
Well, on a personal view I’m sure it isn’t. I was going to vote Liberal Democrat but I tore up my ballot paper when they withdrew rather than vote for the Green candidate.
"could" is not the same as "will". I've no doubt that some tactical alliances are off-putting to some people. But I find it plausible that more Green voters would break LD than Conservative, and that could be the difference in a tight seat. I'm not making any predictions at this stage, I'm just saying that local factors can work across national trends.
I find it plausible that they just wouldn’t vote instead.
Just as while adding the Brexit vote to the Tory vote in red wall seats would have caused Labour the most catastrophic collapse of an opposition party since 1929, I am quite sure that a sufficient number of Brexit voters would simply have abstained instead to discount it.
I'm 100% certain that some people will abstain, and some people will follow the recommended tactical vote, and some people will say bugger this and do what they like. I'm also certain that it will be a net positive for the LD in this case. A Green staying at home isn't going to change the result. But a Green voting LD or Con could.
Or we could have an electoral system where everyone's vote counted.
We might call it "democracy".
Well, I agree that a better electoral system would be... better. I'm just saying this is a factor you need to consider when modelling or predicting who will win seats under the system we've got. Do I think it's ideal that you have these kinds of deals? No. Do I think they happen? Yes.
"we have now vaccinated as of this morning three quarters of all the over eighty year olds in the country and a similar number in care homes"
then reiterated 9 minutes later
"three quarters of all eighty year olds"
He never said 75%.
On the BBC red button. I actually said I didn't know if it was Matt Hancock or the BBC. I don't make things up! And from previous experience I did assume it was the BBC as you can see from my subsequent posts.
We still have many many more weeks before we any chance of relaxation in lockdown.
I'm going for the schools reopening after Easter and pubs and restaurants by second May Bank Holiday weekend.
But more importantly, when can I resume necking trebles in Sinners on a neet oot?
July/August but with significant limitations.
I'm expecting the country to be fully vaccinated (ie both jabs) by September, then after that we can get back to roughly what we were used to pre plague.
We need to remember local deals, such as the Greens stepping aside in Oxford West. If that is repeated next election, that could easily turn Con Gain in LD Hold.
You are assuming everyone voted for the ‘Remain Alliance’ candidate when told to.
I’m not sure that is the case.
Well, on a personal view I’m sure it isn’t. I was going to vote Liberal Democrat but I tore up my ballot paper when they withdrew rather than vote for the Green candidate.
"could" is not the same as "will". I've no doubt that some tactical alliances are off-putting to some people. But I find it plausible that more Green voters would break LD than Conservative, and that could be the difference in a tight seat. I'm not making any predictions at this stage, I'm just saying that local factors can work across national trends.
I find it plausible that they just wouldn’t vote instead.
Just as while adding the Brexit vote to the Tory vote in red wall seats would have caused Labour the most catastrophic collapse of an opposition party since 1929, I am quite sure that a sufficient number of Brexit voters would simply have abstained instead to discount it.
I'm 100% certain that some people will abstain, and some people will follow the recommended tactical vote, and some people will say bugger this and do what they like. I'm also certain that it will be a net positive for the LD in this case. A Green staying at home isn't going to change the result. But a Green voting LD or Con could.
Or we could have an electoral system where everyone's vote counted.
We might call it "democracy".
Well, I agree that a better electoral system would be... better. I'm just saying this is a factor you need to consider when modelling or predicting who will win seats under the system we've got. Do I think it's ideal that you have these kinds of deals? No. Do I think they happen? Yes.
Of course the chances of obtaining a better electoral system are dented as so many people throw their toys out of their pram should any parties have the temerity of being seen to co-operate.
Another advantage of bilingualism in Canada is that the PM is -- de facto -- bilingual. It is an unwritten law.
So there is an intellectual hurdle for the PM to overcome.
It acts as a safety valve to prevent the really stupid ever becoming Canadian PM.
Drakeford is bilingual.
Johnson speaks a great many languages.
Sturgeon so far as I know only speaks English.
I’m not sure your premise is valid...
Edit - doesn’t Paul Davies speak Welsh as his first language as well?
I was more thinking that Canada could never get someone as grossly ignorant as Trump -- because the Canadian PM has to be bilingual.
Johnson, Drakeford & Paul Davies all have serious flaws as politicians, but they are intellectual giants compared to an ignoramus like Tump.
It's actually a very good point and it can be broadened to render it even more effective. If we restrict high political office to those who can speak at least one foreign language AND can play a musical instrument (other than drums) this would at a stroke protect us from the worst of the right wing populist types.
But not from Boris Johnson, who is the most pressing issue on that front right now.
Does he tinkle the ivories?
Wasn't aware he did.
"Boris Johnson learnt to play the trombone at school and started piano lessons at 17. He says he plays On Top of Old Smokey and When the Saints Go Marching In on his piano at home.".
The Prime Minister and partner Carrie Symonds have taken delivery of a piano. The upright instrument was brought into Downing Street to be placed in their official residence.
That sounds to me like he doesn't play in the sense that me and YBarddCwsc are meaning. Touch of the house of the rising suns about it. Borderline at best.
Careful, you'll have theuniondivvie on your case for providing a 'what they really meant' service for YBarddCwsc, which is apparently a thing, who must speak for himself. Not that he takes things seriously.
I freely admit I'm running with a ball that is not mine and in a direction that many will be finding a little too unchartered for their risk appetite. But it's done with conviction and integrity.
I genuinely agonize for 5 minutes every time I see it over whether it is worse to let unchartered go uncorrected or to be the kind of guy who corrects it. Uncharted please.
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
No, it would just be an illegal referendum Unionists boycott, as per Catalonia
When you say "illegal", what do you mean?
Do you mean ultra vires and would be restrained via judicial review, or do you mean that it would literally be an offence?
Well, one issue with this plan is that we don’t know.
It’s clearly ultra vires under the law as it stands, because the Scottish Parliament doesn’t have the power to legislate on constitutional matters and a referendum on independence is clearly a constitutional matter. Moreover, having failed to hold one when first May and then Johnson refused it and having used a section 30 order for the 2014 referendum, they have effectively conceded that argument.
A more risky problem with this is, if it is ultra vires and they try to go ahead anyway, are they then guilty of misappropriation of public funds? And if so, might the reaction of the Westminster government be to bring criminal charges? Johnson and Braverman are more than nasty enough to try.
So it seems to me a high risk strategy, possibly born more of the need to distract attention from Salmond”s increasingly lurid claims by throwing red meat to his nuttier supporters, the likes of Cherry and BS for Scotland. If it’s serious at all, of course.
What other strategy is there? If they are elected to secure independence, what more can they do?
They could get on with the day-to-day business of running the country instead of investing all their energy in a divisive constitutional issue. It isn't as if we don't know what happens next.
Maybe you should be advising the Scottish people not to keep voting for them then.
Ah, but that's the central problem. The Scottish electorate has established form for voting in secessionist Governments - but when given the opportunity to vote to secede, it refused.
Broadly speaking, the history of Scottish politics over the last decade has been:
1. Vote in pro-independence Government 2. Vote No in independence plebiscite 3. Vote in pro-independence Government
It's more than a little bit odd when you look at it like that.
It isn't really that odd. You vote against Indy because it's not a good idea, but you vote SNP because you want Scotland's interests to be defended aggressively and that cannot really be achieved by voting for a Scotland branch of a UK party. There is no Scottish DUP - if there were, it might become quite powerful.
It is not uncommon, around the world, for people to vote for pro-independence parties as their state/local government, yet not vote for independence in referenda.
Which leads one to wonder for how many decades the whole tedious pantomime might drag on for.
If they get this post Brexit Sindy2 - which they should and surely will - and AGAIN vote No there will not be another one in anything but deep time. So one way or another we are approaching a settlement.
Well, maybe - if, by "deep time," you mean "the following Scottish Parliament election, when they vote the SNP back in and the whole cycle begins yet again."
No I'm specifically saying not that. If they vote No again that will be it. And the Scottish people will know this. I think you're being too weary waspish on this one.
Not really. If an excuse can be found for one re-run (considerably less than a generation later,) then it can be done repeatedly until the desired result is achieved.
I don't think so. The rationale for this one - Brexit against their will - is clear and compelling and it doesn't follow that it sets a precedent. To be tracking opinion and nipping in with a quick plebiscite on a regular basis every time you think you have a sniff would be absurd. I don't think that's a realistic future. I think indy is going to happen soon or not happen.
I’ve no idea why the Scottish media, Scottish opposition and the UK media are so poor at holding the SNP to account.
One benefit of Indy - at least they can be held to account for it
Re. why the Scottish media, Scottish opposition and the UK media are so poor at holding the SNP to account and you having no idea, you're presumably making an exception for this 'devastating criticism from an experienced and well respected journalist'?
Any view on precisely how the old holding to account would improve after indy?
"Hold to account." Like "Congratulating someone for stopping beating his wife".
Is it a phrase used about the London media in re the UK Government?
Or is it one used by unionists about the Scottish Gmt?
Not much of a fan of the EU's vaccination response, but the 'if the current pace persists' is a nonsense method of analysis, particularly in a time of supply shortage.
That's fair, although it does also provide yet another excuse to share the rotten numbers. The UK is light years ahead of them, the US had already started to take off under Trump, but the EU is still struggling to get airborne - and that when the Olympic gold standard vaccine was developed in Germany and is being produced by a factory half-an-hour's drive from the Berlaymont building. It's a significant failure by the Commission, to put it mildly.
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
She’s not though?
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
Should get to over 500k today, hopefully we do that on a regular basis next week for 3-3.5m doses per week. It would completely short circuit the whole 12 week cycle slowdown that people are worried about. AZ have really smashed it, with government help.
I said something about the AZ vaccine being the real deal at the time it was first announced.
What’s annoying is I can’t find the quote to prove it using Google and I can’t be bothered to scroll through all the old threads to find it, so you’ll just have to take my word for my awesome prescience.
If you are on mobile the search function on vanilla is really quite good now. You can filter by author and date range.
It is how I keep turning up peoples' (my own included) blown predictions.
Sir, you are officially a genius. I didn’t know about that feature.
Here it is, in all its glory: If it's 90% effective on a more rigorous testing regime than the others, costs a tenth to make and can be stored in a bog-standard piece of kit without spending zillions on dry ice:
Then screw the other vaccines, this is the real deal.
South Africa will pay $5.25 per dose for COVID-19 vaccines from the Serum Institute of India (SII) - well above what others, including developed nations, are paying for the same shots, local newspaper Business Day reported on Thursday.
The Business Day report cited health department Deputy Director-General Anban Pillay as saying the price was based on South Africa’s level of development and its past investment in research and development.
“We were advised that SII has applied a tiered pricing system, and given that (South Africa) is an upper-middle-income country, their price is $5.25. The explanation we were given for why other high-income countries have a lower price is that they have invested in the (research and development), hence the discount on the price,” it quoted him as saying.
The SII, which Business Day said did not respond to requests for comment, is one of several manufacturers licensed by AstraZeneca to make its COVID-19 vaccine. South Africa is due to procure 1.5 million of the shots from the institute.
Other nations or blocs are paying much less. In June, for instance, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France negotiated a price of around $2.50 per shot for 300 million doses from AstraZeneca as part of a European deal to secure supplies of the drug.
Looks scandalous to me. South Africa is certainly not an "Upper middle income" country per head - it's 92nd, behind countries like Colombia and a third of Italy (https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/). Has Italy really been been investing massively in AZ's R&D?
The EU are buying directly from AZ, SA are buying from SII. It's not a comparable situation, I'm surprised that they aren't going down the COVAX route though as I'm sure they'd be eligible. The other issue is that, predicably, the Indian government put an export ban on SII for three months which means lower income countries buying from them are going to be waiting while AZ direct clients will get them immediately.
The upside is that with SII supply will be fairly reliable as they are a formidable outfit, unlike AZ which doesn't have a history of vaccine production. We've seen that with our order being late and underwhelming initially and the EU initial delivery going from 80m to 31m because of production issues.
Ultimately, it's going to be tough going for developing nations until at least the middle of summer when western manufacturing capacity has expanded to a level to supply western countries and have leftover for exports.
Martin again demonstrating the mystery of why he gets paid the big bucks (I actually assume it's reasonably substantial rather than big, but same applies)
Not much of a fan of the EU's vaccination response, but the 'if the current pace persists' is a nonsense method of analysis, particularly in a time of supply shortage.
That's fair, although it does also provide yet another excuse to share the rotten numbers. The UK is light years ahead of them, the US had already started to take off under Trump, but the EU is still struggling to get airborne - and that when the Olympic gold standard vaccine was developed in Germany and is being produced by a factory half-an-hour's drive from the Berlaymont building. It's a significant failure by the Commission, to put it mildly.
My point is, when you have valid lines of criticism, why dilute the impact of them (and your own credibility) by introducing invalid criticisms?
Another advantage of bilingualism in Canada is that the PM is -- de facto -- bilingual. It is an unwritten law.
So there is an intellectual hurdle for the PM to overcome.
It acts as a safety valve to prevent the really stupid ever becoming Canadian PM.
Drakeford is bilingual.
Johnson speaks a great many languages.
Sturgeon so far as I know only speaks English.
I’m not sure your premise is valid...
Edit - doesn’t Paul Davies speak Welsh as his first language as well?
I was more thinking that Canada could never get someone as grossly ignorant as Trump -- because the Canadian PM has to be bilingual.
Johnson, Drakeford & Paul Davies all have serious flaws as politicians, but they are intellectual giants compared to an ignoramus like Tump.
It's actually a very good point and it can be broadened to render it even more effective. If we restrict high political office to those who can speak at least one foreign language AND can play a musical instrument (other than drums) this would at a stroke protect us from the worst of the right wing populist types.
But not from Boris Johnson, who is the most pressing issue on that front right now.
Does he tinkle the ivories?
Wasn't aware he did.
"Boris Johnson learnt to play the trombone at school and started piano lessons at 17. He says he plays On Top of Old Smokey and When the Saints Go Marching In on his piano at home.".
The Prime Minister and partner Carrie Symonds have taken delivery of a piano. The upright instrument was brought into Downing Street to be placed in their official residence.
That sounds to me like he doesn't play in the sense that me and YBarddCwsc are meaning. Touch of the house of the rising suns about it. Borderline at best.
Careful, you'll have theuniondivvie on your case for providing a 'what they really meant' service for YBarddCwsc, which is apparently a thing, who must speak for himself. Not that he takes things seriously.
I freely admit I'm running with a ball that is not mine and in a direction that many will be finding a little too unchartered for their risk appetite. But it's done with conviction and integrity.
I genuinely agonize for 5 minutes every time I see it over whether it is worse to let unchartered go uncorrected or to be the kind of guy who corrects it. Uncharted please.
Yes. I want charted. Uncharted. Genuine fast finger error there. Correction needed. I hope you didn't actually waste 5 mins.
We have to hope that this reduction speeds up, otherwise it's a very slow descent to zero, even with the vaccine.
The Israelis are well ahead of everyone else in the world but if the figures I'm reading are accurate they are still only at about 40 doses per 100 head of population, a decent fraction of those will be seconds, and many of the firsts will only have recently been administered and may therefore confer little or no protection.
So yes, assuming no disasters with exotic strains, the rate of decline should indeed accelerate over time, and quite soon at that.
We still have many many more weeks before we any chance of relaxation in lockdown.
I'm going for the schools reopening after Easter and pubs and restaurants by second May Bank Holiday weekend.
But more importantly, when can I resume necking trebles in Sinners on a neet oot?
July/August but with significant limitations.
I'm expecting the country to be fully vaccinated (ie both jabs) by September, then after that we can get back to roughly what we were used to pre plague.
Historically, an 18-month long pandemic of a respiratory disease is about par for the course. Of course, most have probably been flu viruses (there is a suggestion that the 1890 "Russian Flu" was a coronavirus) but that being said an outbreak of this virus in any century before the 20th would not even have been much noticed, UK life expectancy for a man in 1900 was 47 - an age not even in the priority vaccine groups for this one.
Should get to over 500k today, hopefully we do that on a regular basis next week for 3-3.5m doses per week. It would completely short circuit the whole 12 week cycle slowdown that people are worried about. AZ have really smashed it, with government help.
I said something about the AZ vaccine being the real deal at the time it was first announced.
What’s annoying is I can’t find the quote to prove it using Google and I can’t be bothered to scroll through all the old threads to find it, so you’ll just have to take my word for my awesome prescience.
If you are on mobile the search function on vanilla is really quite good now. You can filter by author and date range.
It is how I keep turning up peoples' (my own included) blown predictions.
Sir, you are officially a genius. I didn’t know about that feature.
Here it is, in all its glory: If it's 90% effective on a more rigorous testing regime than the others, costs a tenth to make and can be stored in a bog-standard piece of kit without spending zillions on dry ice:
Then screw the other vaccines, this is the real deal.
South Africa will pay $5.25 per dose for COVID-19 vaccines from the Serum Institute of India (SII) - well above what others, including developed nations, are paying for the same shots, local newspaper Business Day reported on Thursday.
The Business Day report cited health department Deputy Director-General Anban Pillay as saying the price was based on South Africa’s level of development and its past investment in research and development.
“We were advised that SII has applied a tiered pricing system, and given that (South Africa) is an upper-middle-income country, their price is $5.25. The explanation we were given for why other high-income countries have a lower price is that they have invested in the (research and development), hence the discount on the price,” it quoted him as saying.
The SII, which Business Day said did not respond to requests for comment, is one of several manufacturers licensed by AstraZeneca to make its COVID-19 vaccine. South Africa is due to procure 1.5 million of the shots from the institute.
Other nations or blocs are paying much less. In June, for instance, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France negotiated a price of around $2.50 per shot for 300 million doses from AstraZeneca as part of a European deal to secure supplies of the drug.
Looks scandalous to me. South Africa is certainly not an "Upper middle income" country per head - it's 92nd, behind countries like Colombia and a third of Italy (https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/). Has Italy really been been investing massively in AZ's R&D?
SA is 30 places ahead of India on that list, where the vaccine is being made and where they might be making the comparison with.
Not much of a fan of the EU's vaccination response, but the 'if the current pace persists' is a nonsense method of analysis, particularly in a time of supply shortage.
That's fair, although it does also provide yet another excuse to share the rotten numbers. The UK is light years ahead of them, the US had already started to take off under Trump, but the EU is still struggling to get airborne - and that when the Olympic gold standard vaccine was developed in Germany and is being produced by a factory half-an-hour's drive from the Berlaymont building. It's a significant failure by the Commission, to put it mildly.
Not much of a fan of the EU's vaccination response, but the 'if the current pace persists' is a nonsense method of analysis, particularly in a time of supply shortage.
Does anybody know where the Politico gets its journos?
Last time I looked the "current" figure for the UK was 480,000 jabs per day - yesterday.
I’ve no idea why the Scottish media, Scottish opposition and the UK media are so poor at holding the SNP to account.
One benefit of Indy - at least they can be held to account for it
Re. why the Scottish media, Scottish opposition and the UK media are so poor at holding the SNP to account and you having no idea, you're presumably making an exception for this 'devastating criticism from an experienced and well respected journalist'?
Any view on precisely how the old holding to account would improve after indy?
"Hold to account." Like "Congratulating someone for stopping beating his wife".
Is it a phrase used about the London media in re the UK Government?
Or is it one used by unionists about the Scottish Gmt?
And if so, why the difference?
The paradox is that the same people who bleat continually about the media asking HMG stupid, unhelpful questions also tend to bleat about the media not asking enough stupid, unhelpful questions of the SG. Tbsf they usually have only have a passing acquaintance with the questions that the media do ask north of the border.
I'm not sure that's a particularly useful measure, given:
(a) Early on there are both supply and organisational challenges (b) The EU has only had the Moderna vaccine approved for a couple of weeks (c) The vaccine where the EU has the largest confirmed order (in terms of number of people to be covered) is likely to be available at some point next month
My guess is that the UK will be home and dry by May (as in case numbers down to 2,000 or less), with hospitalisation rates pretty low.
Some of the EU (like Denmark) will probably be a month or two behind (June/July), with the US achieving similar (although, again, some states are doing well, while others are not). There will be some real laggards in the EU (like France) who'll suffer on until early Autumn.
But it's also quite possible, if Novavax and Sputnik and J&J and CureVac and Medicago/GSK, all prove efficacious that the world will be swimming in vaccines in just three months.In which case, arguing about who was ahead a few months is likely to be a bit 'meh'.
And... We should know about J&J next week, and assuming it works, that is an absolute game changer for the world:
- biggest production capacity in 2021 - single dose - no special storage requirements
Another advantage of bilingualism in Canada is that the PM is -- de facto -- bilingual. It is an unwritten law.
So there is an intellectual hurdle for the PM to overcome.
It acts as a safety valve to prevent the really stupid ever becoming Canadian PM.
Drakeford is bilingual.
Johnson speaks a great many languages.
Sturgeon so far as I know only speaks English.
I’m not sure your premise is valid...
Edit - doesn’t Paul Davies speak Welsh as his first language as well?
I was more thinking that Canada could never get someone as grossly ignorant as Trump -- because the Canadian PM has to be bilingual.
Johnson, Drakeford & Paul Davies all have serious flaws as politicians, but they are intellectual giants compared to an ignoramus like Tump.
It's actually a very good point and it can be broadened to render it even more effective. If we restrict high political office to those who can speak at least one foreign language AND can play a musical instrument (other than drums) this would at a stroke protect us from the worst of the right wing populist types.
But not from Boris Johnson, who is the most pressing issue on that front right now.
Does he tinkle the ivories?
Wasn't aware he did.
"Boris Johnson learnt to play the trombone at school and started piano lessons at 17. He says he plays On Top of Old Smokey and When the Saints Go Marching In on his piano at home.".
The Prime Minister and partner Carrie Symonds have taken delivery of a piano. The upright instrument was brought into Downing Street to be placed in their official residence.
That sounds to me like he doesn't play in the sense that me and YBarddCwsc are meaning. Touch of the house of the rising suns about it. Borderline at best.
Careful, you'll have theuniondivvie on your case for providing a 'what they really meant' service for YBarddCwsc, which is apparently a thing, who must speak for himself. Not that he takes things seriously.
You obviously had a right good exfoliation first thing this morning.
I don't follow your meaning. And now I'm worried to speculate.
On topic, the MRP forecasts all seem to assume a large amount of reversion to the national share. So, parties lose votes when their share is above the national average (often by large amounts), and conversely gain share when below.
I'm not sure how realistic that is.
And that wasn't the case for either YouGov or Focal Data in the models they published ahead of the 2019 GE. So the question is, what's different now? Is it that the country is less polarized, or is it just mid-term and people aren't thinking too hard about politics?
It certainly wasn't for 2017, which had some real 'against the national trends' type results, like Canterbury.
I get the principal point, though not sure laying out just how long it would be with no acceleration is necessarily fair. France ahead of Germany on the prediction though, they definitely must have picked up quite a lot.
Edit:
The article says Denmark is also using a delayed dose strategy, which I was not aware of.
Should get to over 500k today, hopefully we do that on a regular basis next week for 3-3.5m doses per week. It would completely short circuit the whole 12 week cycle slowdown that people are worried about. AZ have really smashed it, with government help.
I said something about the AZ vaccine being the real deal at the time it was first announced.
What’s annoying is I can’t find the quote to prove it using Google and I can’t be bothered to scroll through all the old threads to find it, so you’ll just have to take my word for my awesome prescience.
If you are on mobile the search function on vanilla is really quite good now. You can filter by author and date range.
It is how I keep turning up peoples' (my own included) blown predictions.
Sir, you are officially a genius. I didn’t know about that feature.
Here it is, in all its glory: If it's 90% effective on a more rigorous testing regime than the others, costs a tenth to make and can be stored in a bog-standard piece of kit without spending zillions on dry ice:
Then screw the other vaccines, this is the real deal.
South Africa will pay $5.25 per dose for COVID-19 vaccines from the Serum Institute of India (SII) - well above what others, including developed nations, are paying for the same shots, local newspaper Business Day reported on Thursday.
The Business Day report cited health department Deputy Director-General Anban Pillay as saying the price was based on South Africa’s level of development and its past investment in research and development.
“We were advised that SII has applied a tiered pricing system, and given that (South Africa) is an upper-middle-income country, their price is $5.25. The explanation we were given for why other high-income countries have a lower price is that they have invested in the (research and development), hence the discount on the price,” it quoted him as saying.
The SII, which Business Day said did not respond to requests for comment, is one of several manufacturers licensed by AstraZeneca to make its COVID-19 vaccine. South Africa is due to procure 1.5 million of the shots from the institute.
Other nations or blocs are paying much less. In June, for instance, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France negotiated a price of around $2.50 per shot for 300 million doses from AstraZeneca as part of a European deal to secure supplies of the drug.
Looks scandalous to me. South Africa is certainly not an "Upper middle income" country per head - it's 92nd, behind countries like Colombia and a third of Italy (https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/). Has Italy really been been investing massively in AZ's R&D?
On topic, I agree. Outside of election periods the MRP is really trying to apply measures of current public opinion to seats.
It's rather accurate during an election period, particularly the final two weeks, because that's when postal voting is in full swing and election day itself is imminent.
Question is will those vaccinated, asymptomatic people get tests and will that spook the government.
Why would they? Close proximity to someone who tests positive perhaps. Mild symptoms. Not sure.
But as far as positive test numbers it's crucial otherwise high positive test numbers of vaccinated people will affect policy.
Hospitalisations is the only metric that matters.
That's right. Reductio ad absurdum, if the whole country had aysmptomattic Covid you would have an appalling number of cases, but no one would give a shit.
I'm not sure that's a particularly useful measure, given:
(a) Early on there are both supply and organisational challenges (b) The EU has only had the Moderna vaccine approved for a couple of weeks (c) The vaccine where the EU has the largest confirmed order (in terms of number of people to be covered) is likely to be available at some point next month
My guess is that the UK will be home and dry by May (as in case numbers down to 2,000 or less), with hospitalisation rates pretty low.
Some of the EU (like Denmark) will probably be a month or two behind (June/July), with the US achieving similar (although, again, some states are doing well, while others are not). There will be some real laggards in the EU (like France) who'll suffer on until early Autumn.
But it's also quite possible, if Novavax and Sputnik and J&J and CureVac and Medicago/GSK, all prove efficacious that the world will be swimming in vaccines in just three months.In which case, arguing about who was ahead a few months is likely to be a bit 'meh'.
And... We should know about J&J next week, and assuming it works, that is an absolute game changer for the world:
- biggest production capacity in 2021 - single dose - no special storage requirements
Furthermore, at least for Europe, we know that keeping infection rates low over the summer isn't that burdensome, because people want to be outside. It's a pain if you're in the mass tourism industry, but otherwise the unpleasantness isn't that bad.
So, while it's obviously better to get the damn thing over with sooner rather than later, the difference between finishing in May and September is much less significant than between (say) October and February.
Should get to over 500k today, hopefully we do that on a regular basis next week for 3-3.5m doses per week. It would completely short circuit the whole 12 week cycle slowdown that people are worried about. AZ have really smashed it, with government help.
I said something about the AZ vaccine being the real deal at the time it was first announced.
What’s annoying is I can’t find the quote to prove it using Google and I can’t be bothered to scroll through all the old threads to find it, so you’ll just have to take my word for my awesome prescience.
If you are on mobile the search function on vanilla is really quite good now. You can filter by author and date range.
It is how I keep turning up peoples' (my own included) blown predictions.
Sir, you are officially a genius. I didn’t know about that feature.
Here it is, in all its glory: If it's 90% effective on a more rigorous testing regime than the others, costs a tenth to make and can be stored in a bog-standard piece of kit without spending zillions on dry ice:
Then screw the other vaccines, this is the real deal.
South Africa will pay $5.25 per dose for COVID-19 vaccines from the Serum Institute of India (SII) - well above what others, including developed nations, are paying for the same shots, local newspaper Business Day reported on Thursday.
The Business Day report cited health department Deputy Director-General Anban Pillay as saying the price was based on South Africa’s level of development and its past investment in research and development.
“We were advised that SII has applied a tiered pricing system, and given that (South Africa) is an upper-middle-income country, their price is $5.25. The explanation we were given for why other high-income countries have a lower price is that they have invested in the (research and development), hence the discount on the price,” it quoted him as saying.
The SII, which Business Day said did not respond to requests for comment, is one of several manufacturers licensed by AstraZeneca to make its COVID-19 vaccine. South Africa is due to procure 1.5 million of the shots from the institute.
Other nations or blocs are paying much less. In June, for instance, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France negotiated a price of around $2.50 per shot for 300 million doses from AstraZeneca as part of a European deal to secure supplies of the drug.
Looks scandalous to me. South Africa is certainly not an "Upper middle income" country per head - it's 92nd, behind countries like Colombia and a third of Italy (https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/). Has Italy really been been investing massively in AZ's R&D?
The EU are buying directly from AZ, SA are buying from SII. It's not a comparable situation, I'm surprised that they aren't going down the COVAX route though as I'm sure they'd be eligible. The other issue is that, predicably, the Indian government put an export ban on SII for three months which means lower income countries buying from them are going to be waiting while AZ direct clients will get them immediately.
The upside is that with SII supply will be fairly reliable as they are a formidable outfit, unlike AZ which doesn't have a history of vaccine production. We've seen that with our order being late and underwhelming initially and the EU initial delivery going from 80m to 31m because of production issues.
Ultimately, it's going to be tough going for developing nations until at least the middle of summer when western manufacturing capacity has expanded to a level to supply western countries and have leftover for exports.
Perhaps this is one of the lessons we can learn from the pandemic - that a capacity gap in the production of vaccines exists which needs to be closed, and can then be used not only to respond quickly to a future pandemic but also to attempt to stamp out existing infectious diseases?
The UK Government has already sunk a lot of funding into a new facility for the research and manufacture of vaccines: it was on the drawing board anyway when the Plague started, so they signed contracts and chucked a load of money at it, and told the contractors to hurry up. Now, what if that facility was expanded to give us something like the production capacity of the SII? Perhaps the UK and India put together could build enough strength to go after a whole range of deadly diseases, and the Treasury could pay for lower income countries to receive the vaccines for nothing?
It would certainly be a good use of part of the controversial foreign aid budget, and one which the public might be happy to buy into.
Martin again demonstrating the mystery of why he gets paid the big bucks (I actually assume it's reasonably substantial rather than big, but same applies)
"I recently re-watched the 2002 BBC fictional drama The Project". Gosh, I remember that show. Was it really just short of twenty years ago?? yikes!!
Same year as the Not In My Name march (on which day I forget where I'd parked my car in the side streets and it took me 48 hours to find it).
Then if you go back a similar period you get to 1984. Miners Strike. Perhaps the birthing event of Modern Neoliberal Britain. A construct so stubborn it has taken a pandemic to (perhaps) kill it.
Martin again demonstrating the mystery of why he gets paid the big bucks (I actually assume it's reasonably substantial rather than big, but same applies)
There has been further developments on the issue of local elections in May. The LGIU has carried out a survey suggesting local authorities are overwhelmingly against holding them then but would prefer to defer to September. Meanwhile Cloe Smith, the Cabinet Officer minister responsible, has sent out a letter with advice about campaigning. It appears to suggest that party activists should not deliver leaflets but should use delivery firms. What difference this would make I have no idea except it what advantage local parties with the necessary funds. There is also an implicit idea that existing councillors can send out material but not challengers ( on the grounds that existing councillors are informing their voters. Expect quite a reaction - it has already started.
I'm not surprised LAs would be against them, it's just not that urgent for most of them, and delaying to September is far more convenient in terms of stopping then restarting preparations than delaying to July. I do continue to maintain party activists vastly overestimate the general importance of their campaigning, based on the occasions when it has indeed made a big difference, as most people still don't get canvassed or receive more than one leaflet (though where people do bother to work harder, it can matter, given the low turnout in most races). Certainly it would be unfair for incumbents to get any sort of advantage.
I'm still expecting a last minute deferral, maybe in late December, but the government have already held firmer than I thought they would.
It means that a volunteer can't deliver a leaflet attacking Mr Johnson, however a party that can afford to pay for a delivery company to do it would be able to deliver Mr Johnson's propaganda.
Since Lab and Tories have already stopped, there won't be that much of a fallout aiui.
However, it is "Guidance", so anyone who wishes is free to ignore it. Some LDs were not happy.
Martin again demonstrating the mystery of why he gets paid the big bucks (I actually assume it's reasonably substantial rather than big, but same applies)
In the UK, Scotland is as important as England; all British citizens are a priority to get vaccinated by the British government.
In the EU, Scotland would be well down the EU28 list, and, to the extent it could get its bureaucracy together to respond to future viral outbreaks, behind the French and German governments, who have their own priorities and would pull the EU's attentions toward them.
"I recently re-watched the 2002 BBC fictional drama The Project". Gosh, I remember that show. Was it really just short of twenty years ago?? yikes!!
Same year as the Not In My Name march (on which day I forget where I'd parked my car in the side streets and it took me 48 hours to find it).
Then if you go back a similar period you get to 1984. Miners Strike. Perhaps the birthing event of Modern Neoliberal Britain. A construct so stubborn it has taken a pandemic to (perhaps) kill it.
I think the Not in My Name March was 15 February 2003? I know that because I promised my leftie friends I would go but my more apathetic and right wing friends offered me a ticket to the England v France game at Twickenham. I went to the rugby and have been bullshitting my leftie friends for 18 years that I had to work on an injunction that came in.
Embarrasing but true. I remain ashamed - I am sure if I had been on the march it would have tipped the balance and Bush/Blair would have backed off.
TRULY SHOCKING thing about the (alleged) photo of BoJo taking Joe's phone call, is the total, indeed glaring absence of any bust or other tribute, memento, etc., etc. in honor of WINSTON CHURCHILL.
Sure, we know that the PM has NEVER had any use for Franklin Roosevelt, due to FDR's failure to say "aye, ready, aye" in support of Britain's war effort in the fall of 1939, OR in the spring of 1940. Thus his refusal to display a bust of FDR.
But surely he could pay some respect to his (alleged) hero and role model, WSC? Mr. Johnson, have you no shame?!?
Possibly the most cringeworthy episode in our history was that manufactured outrage about a foreign leader's choice of office ornamentation. It's only rivalled by HYUFD's excruciatingly embarrasing insistence that US Presidents of English descent are nicer to us...conveniently ignoring the fact that Washington and Madison were both of English descent.
Re: English descent, of course Biden has (apparently) more English DNA (though not sure that's right way to put it) than Irish.
Perhaps it would help IF Joe admitted that he used to smoke Marlboro(ugh) cigaret(te)s?
Probably not - because then he'd be accused of insulting the Churchill family AND rampant Anglophobia for quitting them!
My wife is an Irish-American. My mother is, culturally, as English as they come - almost a stereotype. My mother got into genealogy and also did one of those 23andMe DNA tests - both of which suggest that my mother is genetically more Irish than my mother-in-law. That caused a cognative dissonance in my Wife's family that you would not believe. It actually caused a slight argument over Thanksgiving dinner.
The American obsession with 'roots' is deeply weird.
I always thought they were celebrating where potatoes come from.
Martin again demonstrating the mystery of why he gets paid the big bucks (I actually assume it's reasonably substantial rather than big, but same applies)
Did the SNP comment publicly on the decision made earlier last year?
They might well have, and a question could be framed around that, but not by asking them if their policy for now is to withdraw from it and join the EU scheme, which is a decision not within their power until far in the future. The question is about the programme, ie the current programme.
If its felt the question is being dodged, the quesioner has made that vastly easier by asking it in a dumb way that allows it.
The intent of the question might well be worthy, but its a poor question.
"I recently re-watched the 2002 BBC fictional drama The Project". Gosh, I remember that show. Was it really just short of twenty years ago?? yikes!!
Same year as the Not In My Name march (on which day I forget where I'd parked my car in the side streets and it took me 48 hours to find it).
Then if you go back a similar period you get to 1984. Miners Strike. Perhaps the birthing event of Modern Neoliberal Britain. A construct so stubborn it has taken a pandemic to (perhaps) kill it.
I think the Not in My Name March was 15 February 2003? I know that because I promised my leftie friends I would go but my more apathetic and right wing friends offered me a ticket to the England v France game at Twickenham. I went to the rugby and have been bullshitting my leftie friends for 18 years that I had to work on an injunction that came in.
Embarrasing but true. I remain ashamed - I am sure if I had been on the march it would have tipped the balance and Bush/Blair would have backed off.
I have fond memories of that time. I spent a couple of days moving this guy's car around from street to street so he couldn't find it.
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
She’s not though?
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
She’s not though?
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
All the Scotch experts have opined now. We can get back in our box and keep doffing our caps.
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
She’s not though?
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
As I said up threat, an advisory poll is basically an opinion poll. I cannot see any firm legal basis to stop one. But then again as soon as I step out of my employment law cul-de-sac I'm on shakey ground.
Martin again demonstrating the mystery of why he gets paid the big bucks (I actually assume it's reasonably substantial rather than big, but same applies)
Did the SNP comment publicly on the decision made earlier last year?
They might well have, and a question could be framed around that, but not by asking them if their policy for now is to withdraw from it and join the EU scheme, which is a decision not within their power until far in the future. The question is about the programme, ie the current programme.
If its felt the question is being dodged, the quesioner has made that vastly easier by asking it in a dumb way that allows it.
The intent of the question might well be worthy, but its a poor question.
Nothing thicker than a unionist journalist that is for sure. Even a cretin would not have asked such a steaming pile of horse manure.
"I recently re-watched the 2002 BBC fictional drama The Project". Gosh, I remember that show. Was it really just short of twenty years ago?? yikes!!
Same year as the Not In My Name march (on which day I forget where I'd parked my car in the side streets and it took me 48 hours to find it).
Then if you go back a similar period you get to 1984. Miners Strike. Perhaps the birthing event of Modern Neoliberal Britain. A construct so stubborn it has taken a pandemic to (perhaps) kill it.
I think the Not in My Name March was 15 February 2003? I know that because I promised my leftie friends I would go but my more apathetic and right wing friends offered me a ticket to the England v France game at Twickenham. I went to the rugby and have been bullshitting my leftie friends for 18 years that I had to work on an injunction that came in.
Embarrasing but true. I remain ashamed - I am sure if I had been on the march it would have tipped the balance and Bush/Blair would have backed off.
Sorry, yes, you are absolutely right. Not only did I forget where I parked my car, I forgot what year it was. Very poor call of yours there, reactionary rugby union at Twickers rather than marching against Western imperialism. But return confession. I did 1 hour march and 5 hours pub. That's why I had to skip the car and then couldn't find it when I went back the next day.
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
She’s not though?
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
But equally there is no power vested in the Scottish government vis a vis constitutional matters. They're reserved powers.
Any such poll would surely be boycotted by unionists and ignored, don't you think?
Question is will those vaccinated, asymptomatic people get tests and will that spook the government.
Why would they? Close proximity to someone who tests positive perhaps. Mild symptoms. Not sure.
But as far as positive test numbers it's crucial otherwise high positive test numbers of vaccinated people will affect policy.
Hospitalisations is the only metric that matters.
That's right. Reductio ad absurdum, if the whole country had aysmptomattic Covid you would have an appalling number of cases, but no one would give a shit.
The problem area is the intermediate state - when admissions and deaths have dropped, but releasing the restrictions will have R above 1 in two shakes of a lambs tail.
Martin again demonstrating the mystery of why he gets paid the big bucks (I actually assume it's reasonably substantial rather than big, but same applies)
In the UK, Scotland is as important as England; all British citizens are a priority to get vaccinated by the British government.
In the EU, Scotland would be well down the EU28 list, and, to the extent it could get its bureaucracy together to respond to future viral outbreaks, behind the French and German governments, who have their own priorities and would pull the EU's attentions toward them.
"In the UK, Scotland is as important as England" Ha ha, top satirical post.
"I recently re-watched the 2002 BBC fictional drama The Project". Gosh, I remember that show. Was it really just short of twenty years ago?? yikes!!
November 2002. I watched it when I should have been revising for my GCSE mocks.
It clearly did you no harm. Thanks for an excellent header. But I'm not too sure about "sophomore surge". To my ears it sounds too much like libidinous US college fratboys eyeing up next year's intake of co-eds.
Question is will those vaccinated, asymptomatic people get tests and will that spook the government.
Why would they? Close proximity to someone who tests positive perhaps. Mild symptoms. Not sure.
But as far as positive test numbers it's crucial otherwise high positive test numbers of vaccinated people will affect policy.
Hospitalisations is the only metric that matters.
I doubt it, as you say as long as they aren't filling up hospitals it doesn't really matter. Even for lockdown 3 the government pushed the panic button when they realised that hospitals were about to get completey buggered.
On that note, it looks like the hospital funnel has got more people leaving than entering, it won't be long now until the death rate starts to fall. Sadly because of the Kent mutation the fall isn't going to be as quick as it was in lockdown 1, but we have the added effect of the vaccines which may counteract that.
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
She’s not though?
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
But equally there is no power vested in the Scottish government vis a vis constitutional matters. They're reserved powers.
Any such poll would surely be boycotted by unionists and ignored, don't you think?
We shall see when challenged in court, UK cannot imprison people, International law does not allow it. We are either in a union or we are a colony, make up your mind. Unusual in a democracy to hold people prisoner against their will.
With the rumour about cockney Covid being more deadly - couldn't it just be different? In the sense that hospitals have got a fair bit better at treating standard Covid, but with cockney Covid they are starting from scratch. That would account for a small but noticeable increase in mortality.
In a purely mathematics sense that is plausible. The increase in mortality that has been suggested is broadly comparable to the reduction in mortality attributed to dexamethasone for example.
However, as I understand it this would be unlikely as the treatments work by reducing the damage from the symptoms, and it would be pretty hard for the virus to change sufficiently that it killed people in a radically different way, rather than the same way but more so.
But it is possible that it's changed the fatality rate while being treated rather than the base fatality rate without treatment.
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
She’s not though?
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
As I said up threat, an advisory poll is basically an opinion poll. I cannot see any firm legal basis to stop one. But then again as soon as I step out of my employment law cul-de-sac I'm on shakey ground.
I am in agreement. I have a handy flowchart
1) Does Holyrood have the power to hold referendums in general? If Yes goto 2) In No goto END-Bad)
2) Does a non-binding referendum mean that any actual change is guaranteed to take place If Yes goto 3) In No goto 4)
3) Really? Actually no you are right, it doesn't goto 4)
4)Is there any law that limits the topics a non-binding referendum the Scottish government calls can be on (Bearing in mind the result of the referendum doesn't actually change anything)? If Yes goto 5) If No got END-Good)
5) Are you able to actually point at in the law book? if Yes goto 6) No got END-Good)
6) Go on then, give us a link? If able to give link then goto END-Bad Otherwise got END-Good
END-Bad) Holyrood does not have the power to hold a non-binding referendum on Sindy END-Good) Holyrood can call a non binding advisory referendum on any topic it likes.
So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
That might be a valid comparison if every country had the same demographics.
Both of you are right, of course. The UK's response has been sub-optimal, to put it charitably. But it is also full of old and sick people (and has a relatively high population density, which probably doesn't help matters either.) To put it crudely, most of those who've died of the virus would already have died of something else if they'd been born in much of the developing world.
So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
Yes, it's a terrible record. The fact is that prime ministerial indolence and incompetence has cost many tens of thousands of lives. These are on Boris - had he acted sooner the toll could have been much much lower. He is personally responsible for more grief and suffering in the the UK than anyone since the Nazis.
So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
That assumes the reported figures from everywhere else are correct. Russia admitted it has underreported by 70%, analysis of excess deaths in the US show underreporting of around 40% and a mysterious rise in pneumonia deaths last year. There is a lot to fault the government on, no doubt, but international comparisons are specious becuase most countries are nowhere near as transparent as this country in reporting. I know this will fall in deaf ears and you'll keep pushing the same tired old agenda at every opportunity but hopefully someone else gets something out of it.
That website is a bit rubbish, just typed in Theresa May, the Home Secretary who legislated for same sex marriage and comes out as 'Theresa voted against laws to promote equality and human rights.'
Damn, I hope the academics behind this rigorously researched resource figure out what went wrong with their data and algorithms.
My MP gets a solitary positive for voting to remove Hereditary Peers. Is that really a prick/non-prick issue? I can see why it would be the right decision for the purposes of such an analysis, but it doesn't seem along the same lines as 'voting against proper funding of public services' or 'voted against directly funding free school means'
These days not agreeing with me = prick (or worse).
I don't agree with that, you prick!
Things like this are a symptom of the dysfunctional politics. Rather than debate the points, it's easier to just call an MP a prick.
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
She’s not though?
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
But equally there is no power vested in the Scottish government vis a vis constitutional matters. They're reserved powers.
Any such poll would surely be boycotted by unionists and ignored, don't you think?
We shall see when challenged in court, UK cannot imprison people, International law does not allow it. We are either in a union or we are a colony, make up your mind. Unusual in a democracy to hold people prisoner against their will.
Remind me the result of the most recent Scottish independence referendum? Scotland decided to stay.
Just because the indies shout louder shouldn't prevent democracy from triumphing, should it?
Or do you think that a vote for independence carries more weight than a vote against it?
Should get to over 500k today, hopefully we do that on a regular basis next week for 3-3.5m doses per week. It would completely short circuit the whole 12 week cycle slowdown that people are worried about. AZ have really smashed it, with government help.
I said something about the AZ vaccine being the real deal at the time it was first announced.
What’s annoying is I can’t find the quote to prove it using Google and I can’t be bothered to scroll through all the old threads to find it, so you’ll just have to take my word for my awesome prescience.
If you are on mobile the search function on vanilla is really quite good now. You can filter by author and date range.
It is how I keep turning up peoples' (my own included) blown predictions.
Sir, you are officially a genius. I didn’t know about that feature.
Here it is, in all its glory: If it's 90% effective on a more rigorous testing regime than the others, costs a tenth to make and can be stored in a bog-standard piece of kit without spending zillions on dry ice:
Then screw the other vaccines, this is the real deal.
South Africa will pay $5.25 per dose for COVID-19 vaccines from the Serum Institute of India (SII) - well above what others, including developed nations, are paying for the same shots, local newspaper Business Day reported on Thursday.
The Business Day report cited health department Deputy Director-General Anban Pillay as saying the price was based on South Africa’s level of development and its past investment in research and development.
“We were advised that SII has applied a tiered pricing system, and given that (South Africa) is an upper-middle-income country, their price is $5.25. The explanation we were given for why other high-income countries have a lower price is that they have invested in the (research and development), hence the discount on the price,” it quoted him as saying.
The SII, which Business Day said did not respond to requests for comment, is one of several manufacturers licensed by AstraZeneca to make its COVID-19 vaccine. South Africa is due to procure 1.5 million of the shots from the institute.
Other nations or blocs are paying much less. In June, for instance, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France negotiated a price of around $2.50 per shot for 300 million doses from AstraZeneca as part of a European deal to secure supplies of the drug.
Looks scandalous to me. South Africa is certainly not an "Upper middle income" country per head - it's 92nd, behind countries like Colombia and a third of Italy (https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/). Has Italy really been been investing massively in AZ's R&D?
The EU are buying directly from AZ, SA are buying from SII. It's not a comparable situation, I'm surprised that they aren't going down the COVAX route though as I'm sure they'd be eligible. The other issue is that, predicably, the Indian government put an export ban on SII for three months which means lower income countries buying from them are going to be waiting while AZ direct clients will get them immediately.
The upside is that with SII supply will be fairly reliable as they are a formidable outfit, unlike AZ which doesn't have a history of vaccine production. We've seen that with our order being late and underwhelming initially and the EU initial delivery going from 80m to 31m because of production issues.
Ultimately, it's going to be tough going for developing nations until at least the middle of summer when western manufacturing capacity has expanded to a level to supply western countries and have leftover for exports.
Perhaps this is one of the lessons we can learn from the pandemic - that a capacity gap in the production of vaccines exists which needs to be closed, and can then be used not only to respond quickly to a future pandemic but also to attempt to stamp out existing infectious diseases?
The UK Government has already sunk a lot of funding into a new facility for the research and manufacture of vaccines: it was on the drawing board anyway when the Plague started, so they signed contracts and chucked a load of money at it, and told the contractors to hurry up. Now, what if that facility was expanded to give us something like the production capacity of the SII? Perhaps the UK and India put together could build enough strength to go after a whole range of deadly diseases, and the Treasury could pay for lower income countries to receive the vaccines for nothing?
It would certainly be a good use of part of the controversial foreign aid budget, and one which the public might be happy to buy into.
This was evident post-Anthrax letters, post-H1N1, post-SARS which is the only reason there is a US vaccine-production capacity at all.
What this is showing us is that health security is every bit as strategic as economic and military security, and that we, or very close allies, must have both vaccine and reagent production capacities to match our national/alliance needs in times of pandemics.
So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
Yes, it's a terrible record. The fact is that prime ministerial indolence and incompetence has cost many tens of thousands of lives. These are on Boris - had he acted sooner the toll could have been much much lower. He is personally responsible for more grief and suffering in the the UK than anyone since the Nazis.
"I recently re-watched the 2002 BBC fictional drama The Project". Gosh, I remember that show. Was it really just short of twenty years ago?? yikes!!
Same year as the Not In My Name march (on which day I forget where I'd parked my car in the side streets and it took me 48 hours to find it).
Then if you go back a similar period you get to 1984. Miners Strike. Perhaps the birthing event of Modern Neoliberal Britain. A construct so stubborn it has taken a pandemic to (perhaps) kill it.
I think the Not in My Name March was 15 February 2003? I know that because I promised my leftie friends I would go but my more apathetic and right wing friends offered me a ticket to the England v France game at Twickenham. I went to the rugby and have been bullshitting my leftie friends for 18 years that I had to work on an injunction that came in.
Embarrasing but true. I remain ashamed - I am sure if I had been on the march it would have tipped the balance and Bush/Blair would have backed off.
I have fond memories of that time. I spent a couple of days moving this guy's car around from street to street so he couldn't find it.
Ha. Long time mystery solved. The empty Toblerone in the glove box. Not me at all.
So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
That is a very very simplistic calculation that is would fall apart rapidly. There is no consideration for population density, age groups, country location etc, and then there is each country's definition of a death due to covid.
It's like those who use Sweden's death rate Vs UK death rate to oppose lockdowns, comparing an apple to a cricket ball.
I don't think the government has handled this very well, certainly when it has come to learning lessons from ourselves or abroad, but using statistics like that reminds me of how an ex orange president liked to do.
So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
That assumes the reported figures from everywhere else are correct. Russia admitted it has underreported by 70%, analysis of excess deaths in the US show underreporting of around 40% and a mysterious rise in pneumonia deaths last year. There is a lot to fault the government on, no doubt, but international comparisons are specious becuase most countries are nowhere near as transparent as this country in reporting. I know this will fall in deaf ears and you'll keep pushing the same tired old agenda at every opportunity but hopefully someone else gets something out of it.
@ Max, I thought of responding with same, but decided against the futile.
So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
That assumes the reported figures from everywhere else are correct. Russia admitted it has underreported by 70%, analysis of excess deaths in the US show underreporting of around 40% and a mysterious rise in pneumonia deaths last year. There is a lot to fault the government on, no doubt, but international comparisons are specious becuase most countries are nowhere near as transparent as this country in reporting. I know this will fall in deaf ears and you'll keep pushing the same tired old agenda at every opportunity but hopefully someone else gets something out of it.
We are also under reporting in ours in comparison to our Excess Deaths numbers are we not?
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
She’s not though?
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
But equally there is no power vested in the Scottish government vis a vis constitutional matters. They're reserved powers.
Any such poll would surely be boycotted by unionists and ignored, don't you think?
Yup. In the same way a second Brexit referendum would have been boycotted by those who had voted Leave.
So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
Yes, it's a terrible record. The fact is that prime ministerial indolence and incompetence has cost many tens of thousands of lives. These are on Boris - had he acted sooner the toll could have been much much lower. He is personally responsible for more grief and suffering in the the UK than anyone since the Nazis.
For the last 12 months the government have been steering a course between those who wanted to act sooner and harder and those who wanted to wait and see. They were always constrained by the fear of social disorder wrecking the NHS. As we see almost every evening, that danger has not entirely gone away.
Question is will those vaccinated, asymptomatic people get tests and will that spook the government.
Why would they? Close proximity to someone who tests positive perhaps. Mild symptoms. Not sure.
But as far as positive test numbers it's crucial otherwise high positive test numbers of vaccinated people will affect policy.
Hospitalisations is the only metric that matters.
I doubt it, as you say as long as they aren't filling up hospitals it doesn't really matter. Even for lockdown 3 the government pushed the panic button when they realised that hospitals were about to get completey buggered.
On that note, it looks like the hospital funnel has got more people leaving than entering, it won't be long now until the death rate starts to fall. Sadly because of the Kent mutation the fall isn't going to be as quick as it was in lockdown 1, but we have the added effect of the vaccines which may counteract that.
You may be right, Max, from a practical perspectives (treat the symptoms), but from a scientific perspective, I'd love to see a government-sponsored randomized testing of those who have received both 1 and 2 shots of each of the vaccines to test for both antibody levels and any continued viral shedding. That would give us clearer data on the effectiveness of the vaccines (by number of shots and time from shot) and on what social measures need to persist for how long.
Reflecting on the SNP plan I have come to the conclusion that Sturgeon is better at politics than me:
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
She’s not though?
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
There is no law stopping the Scottish government having and advisory referendum on any topic.
But equally there is no power vested in the Scottish government vis a vis constitutional matters. They're reserved powers.
Any such poll would surely be boycotted by unionists and ignored, don't you think?
We shall see when challenged in court, UK cannot imprison people, International law does not allow it. We are either in a union or we are a colony, make up your mind. Unusual in a democracy to hold people prisoner against their will.
How many colonies were given a chance to leave say under seven years ago?
So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
That is a very very simplistic calculation that is would fall apart rapidly. There is no consideration for population density, age groups, country location etc, and then there is each country's definition of a death due to covid.
It's like those who use Sweden's death rate Vs UK death rate to oppose lockdowns, comparing an apple to a cricket ball.
I don't think the government has handled this very well, certainly when it has come to learning lessons from ourselves or abroad, but using statistics like that reminds me of how an ex orange president liked to do.
Excess deaths is the acknowledged way of comparing.
How do you think we rank in an excess death comparison?
So the UK represents 0.87% of the World Population - 21st biggest Population
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
That assumes the reported figures from everywhere else are correct. Russia admitted it has underreported by 70%, analysis of excess deaths in the US show underreporting of around 40% and a mysterious rise in pneumonia deaths last year. There is a lot to fault the government on, no doubt, but international comparisons are specious becuase most countries are nowhere near as transparent as this country in reporting. I know this will fall in deaf ears and you'll keep pushing the same tired old agenda at every opportunity but hopefully someone else gets something out of it.
We are also under reporting in ours in comparison to our Excess Deaths numbers are we not?
Only a little bit, 70k reported on the dashboard vs. 80k excess on 22nd December
Martin again demonstrating the mystery of why he gets paid the big bucks (I actually assume it's reasonably substantial rather than big, but same applies)
Did the SNP comment publicly on the decision made earlier last year?
You get one guess:
Health critics hit out at the UK's decision stating that the battle against Covid-19 called for global unity.
The SNP’s Shadow Brexit Secretary Dr Philippa Whitford MP said: “At a time when the UK should be accelerating efforts to work with our EU partners towards finding a vaccine, it is concerning that the UK government has instead rejected the opportunity to take part in yet another EU-wide programme.
“The UK government’s short-sighted and increasingly isolationist approach does nothing but hinder the ability to tackle the virus effectively.
Comments
"we have now vaccinated as of this morning three quarters of all the over eighty year olds in the country and a similar number in care homes"
then reiterated 9 minutes later
"three quarters of all eighty year olds"
He never said 75%.
Any view on precisely how the old holding to account would improve after indy?
It looks like schools will now be closed until Easter (4 April), summer term will start around Mon 12 April and children may well go back then.
Possibly some sort of national Tier 3 end March, maybe Tier 2 mid April, visits to the pub for Easter look gone now.
Boris will want to see these indicators before any significant easing:
- national 7 date rate below 100 per 100,000 - this is basically the same as 10,000 cases a day
- hospital admissions less than 10,000 in total ie number of people in the hospital at one time
- vaccines at 20m + plus clear evidence that they are reducing cases/hospitalisation.
We might get there by end March, we will do on cases based on current progression, and almost certainly on vaccines by then, probably by end Feb but we need the extra month to see how that is affecting infections etc.
This to get the schools open and Tier 3.
I'm just saying this is a factor you need to consider when modelling or predicting who will win seats under the system we've got. Do I think it's ideal that you have these kinds of deals? No. Do I think they happen? Yes.
I'm expecting the country to be fully vaccinated (ie both jabs) by September, then after that we can get back to roughly what we were used to pre plague.
We have to hope that this reduction speeds up, otherwise it's a very slow descent to zero, even with the vaccine.
Is it a phrase used about the London media in re the UK Government?
Or is it one used by unionists about the Scottish Gmt?
And if so, why the difference?
"I recently re-watched the 2002 BBC fictional drama The Project". Gosh, I remember that show. Was it really just short of twenty years ago?? yikes!!
My understanding was that without a Section 30 order the Scottish law is ultra vires.
She can hold a poll but it wouldn’t have legal standing. I could see she might even get into trouble for spending public money on it although I am sure there will be a way around it.
Just drafting a section 30 notice doesn’t solve anything because it needs to be agreed by the U.K. government as well as the Scottish government
But I’ve not made a close study of it so perhaps someone can explain what I’ve missed?
The upside is that with SII supply will be fairly reliable as they are a formidable outfit, unlike AZ which doesn't have a history of vaccine production. We've seen that with our order being late and underwhelming initially and the EU initial delivery going from 80m to 31m because of production issues.
Ultimately, it's going to be tough going for developing nations until at least the middle of summer when western manufacturing capacity has expanded to a level to supply western countries and have leftover for exports.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1353386006502907906?s=20
https://twitter.com/euanspc/status/1353387800364687360?s=20
So yes, assuming no disasters with exotic strains, the rate of decline should indeed accelerate over time, and quite soon at that.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=GBR~MLT~DNK~SVN~IRL~ESP~LTU~ISL~SRB~ITA~ROU~PRT~CYP~CHE~DEU~POL~EST~CAN~AUT~CZE~SVK~FIN~HRV~HUN~GRC~BEL~FRA~SWE~NOR~LUX~LVA~BGR®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc
Last time I looked the "current" figure for the UK was 480,000 jabs per day - yesterday.
The Politico Chart is a 7 day rolling average.
(a) Early on there are both supply and organisational challenges
(b) The EU has only had the Moderna vaccine approved for a couple of weeks
(c) The vaccine where the EU has the largest confirmed order (in terms of number of people to be covered) is likely to be available at some point next month
My guess is that the UK will be home and dry by May (as in case numbers down to 2,000 or less), with hospitalisation rates pretty low.
Some of the EU (like Denmark) will probably be a month or two behind (June/July), with the US achieving similar (although, again, some states are doing well, while others are not). There will be some real laggards in the EU (like France) who'll suffer on until early Autumn.
But it's also quite possible, if Novavax and Sputnik and J&J and CureVac and Medicago/GSK, all prove efficacious that the world will be swimming in vaccines in just three months.In which case, arguing about who was ahead a few months is likely to be a bit 'meh'.
And... We should know about J&J next week, and assuming it works, that is an absolute game changer for the world:
- biggest production capacity in 2021
- single dose
- no special storage requirements
This is excellent.
Edit:
The article says Denmark is also using a delayed dose strategy, which I was not aware of.
Why would they? Close proximity to someone who tests positive perhaps. Mild symptoms. Not sure.
But as far as positive test numbers it's crucial otherwise high positive test numbers of vaccinated people will affect policy.
Hospitalisations is the only metric that matters.
https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/upper-middle-income
It's rather accurate during an election period, particularly the final two weeks, because that's when postal voting is in full swing and election day itself is imminent.
So, while it's obviously better to get the damn thing over with sooner rather than later, the difference between finishing in May and September is much less significant than between (say) October and February.
The UK Government has already sunk a lot of funding into a new facility for the research and manufacture of vaccines: it was on the drawing board anyway when the Plague started, so they signed contracts and chucked a load of money at it, and told the contractors to hurry up. Now, what if that facility was expanded to give us something like the production capacity of the SII? Perhaps the UK and India put together could build enough strength to go after a whole range of deadly diseases, and the Treasury could pay for lower income countries to receive the vaccines for nothing?
It would certainly be a good use of part of the controversial foreign aid budget, and one which the public might be happy to buy into.
Victory
Victory
Victory
Victory
Tory Sell-Out
Tory Sell-Out
Tory Sell-Out
Victory
Victory
Victory
Victory
Then if you go back a similar period you get to 1984. Miners Strike. Perhaps the birthing event of Modern Neoliberal Britain. A construct so stubborn it has taken a pandemic to (perhaps) kill it.
However, it is "Guidance", so anyone who wishes is free to ignore it. Some LDs were not happy.
Here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955122/MCD_letter_to_members_of_the_Parliamentary_Parties_Panel.pdf
In the UK, Scotland is as important as England; all British citizens are a priority to get vaccinated by the British government.
In the EU, Scotland would be well down the EU28 list, and, to the extent it could get its bureaucracy together to respond to future viral outbreaks, behind the French and German governments, who have their own priorities and would pull the EU's attentions toward them.
Very nice debut piece!
Embarrasing but true. I remain ashamed - I am sure if I had been on the march it would have tipped the balance and Bush/Blair would have backed off.
(Gets coat)
If its felt the question is being dodged, the quesioner has made that vastly easier by asking it in a dumb way that allows it.
The intent of the question might well be worthy, but its a poor question.
The UK has 4.59% of the Worlds COVID deaths - 5th highest in terms of total deaths
Of the Worlds 75 biggest Nations by Population the UK has the worst death rate per Million
WORLD BEATING BORIS
Any such poll would surely be boycotted by unionists and ignored, don't you think?
https://twitter.com/pdkmitchell/status/1353400423076548609?s=20
Ha ha, top satirical post.
On that note, it looks like the hospital funnel has got more people leaving than entering, it won't be long now until the death rate starts to fall. Sadly because of the Kent mutation the fall isn't going to be as quick as it was in lockdown 1, but we have the added effect of the vaccines which may counteract that.
However, as I understand it this would be unlikely as the treatments work by reducing the damage from the symptoms, and it would be pretty hard for the virus to change sufficiently that it killed people in a radically different way, rather than the same way but more so.
But it is possible that it's changed the fatality rate while being treated rather than the base fatality rate without treatment.
Fixed it for you
PB Tories in its down to our demographics DENIAL
1) Does Holyrood have the power to hold referendums in general?
If Yes goto 2)
In No goto END-Bad)
2) Does a non-binding referendum mean that any actual change is guaranteed to take place
If Yes goto 3)
In No goto 4)
3) Really?
Actually no you are right, it doesn't goto 4)
4)Is there any law that limits the topics a non-binding referendum the Scottish government calls can be on (Bearing in mind the result of the referendum doesn't actually change anything)?
If Yes goto 5)
If No got END-Good)
5) Are you able to actually point at in the law book?
if Yes goto 6)
No got END-Good)
6) Go on then, give us a link?
If able to give link then goto END-Bad
Otherwise got END-Good
END-Bad) Holyrood does not have the power to hold a non-binding referendum on Sindy
END-Good) Holyrood can call a non binding advisory referendum on any topic it likes.
Just because the indies shout louder shouldn't prevent democracy from triumphing, should it?
Or do you think that a vote for independence carries more weight than a vote against it?
Just sounds like sour grapes to me, Malc.
What this is showing us is that health security is every bit as strategic as economic and military security, and that we, or very close allies, must have both vaccine and reagent production capacities to match our national/alliance needs in times of pandemics.
It's like those who use Sweden's death rate Vs UK death rate to oppose lockdowns, comparing an apple to a cricket ball.
I don't think the government has handled this very well, certainly when it has come to learning lessons from ourselves or abroad, but using statistics like that reminds me of how an ex orange president liked to do.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1353403534855856129
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1353404573155696646
How do you think we rank in an excess death comparison?
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55411323
Health critics hit out at the UK's decision stating that the battle against Covid-19 called for global unity.
The SNP’s Shadow Brexit Secretary Dr Philippa Whitford MP said: “At a time when the UK should be accelerating efforts to work with our EU partners towards finding a vaccine, it is concerning that the UK government has instead rejected the opportunity to take part in yet another EU-wide programme.
“The UK government’s short-sighted and increasingly isolationist approach does nothing but hinder the ability to tackle the virus effectively.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18576012.critics-hit-matt-hancock-confirms-britain-will-not-join-eu-covid-vaccine-purchase-scheme/
Since then they've been busy procuring blue envelopes to send out vaccine invites for the Oxford AstraZeneca jab.....