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MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD? – politicalbetting.com
MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD? – politicalbetting.com
When YouGov published their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) election model during the 2017 General Election campaign, it’s fair to say that it was met with a great deal of scepticism (though not from Alastair Meeks). Sure, expectations about the size of the Conservative majority had been scaled back, but a hung-parliament? Labour gain Canterbury? No chance…
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The Focal Point MRP data would make the Tories the largest party in England and Wales still in a hung Parliament but would give Labour and the SNP combined an overall majority of 30 across the UK.
That shows how the next general election will be decided by what happens in Scotland in my view
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1353341552207278081
Have you any theory why the sophomore surge doesn’t appear to be happening this time around?
Moreover, although statistics are not my long suit, but if the Tories are not soaring in these seats does it not suggest their vote is still quite efficiently spread? They’re not ridiculously below their GE share at this moment.
First dose 443,330
Second dose 774
Total 444,104
Yesterday 425,596
Last week 277,209
Regional
East 69,239
London 41,009 ???
Midlands 74,089
NE & Yorks 72,897
North West 54,135
South East 69,876
South West 61,153
Quick thought. Do you think the current pandemic has anything to do with the lack of a sophomore effect? I would assume new MPs get a natural boost just because they are covered by the local media, are out and about at events etc etc. All that has gone out of the window. So, in effect, these MPs have very little of a "shop window" to get themselves personally known.
What’s annoying is I can’t find the quote to prove it using Google and I can’t be bothered to scroll through all the old threads to find it, so you’ll just have to take my word for my awesome prescience.
We need to remember local deals, such as the Greens stepping aside in Oxford West. If that is repeated next election, that could easily turn Con Gain in LD Hold.
The economic picture will be markedly different and people's circumstances as well. I think the headline opinion polls are useful in a sense that you get an idea of where both major parties stand with voters in the popularity contest, but I don't think that translates well into seat projections, not until we're much closer to the campaign.
I’m not sure that is the case.
Well, on a personal view I’m sure it isn’t. I was going to vote Liberal Democrat but I tore up my ballot paper when they withdrew rather than vote for the Green candidate.
Nice in depth look. A lack of a sophomore surge would be significant if it pans out.
I didn't say it, but obviously the minor party shares are quite high at the moment and one wouldn't expect them to do quite so well in the election. But I was more interested in differences between seats and what stood out was how parties seem to be doing better where they were weakest in 2019.
I've no doubt that some tactical alliances are off-putting to some people. But I find it plausible that more Green voters would break LD than Conservative, and that could be the difference in a tight seat. I'm not making any predictions at this stage, I'm just saying that local factors can work across national trends.
Daily Mirror must be terribly disappointed.
Japan official, calling Taiwan 'red line,' urges Biden to 'be strong'
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/25/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-taiwan-joe-biden/
Just as while adding the Brexit vote to the Tory vote in red wall seats would have caused Labour the most catastrophic collapse of an opposition party since 1929, I am quite sure that a sufficient number of Brexit voters would simply have abstained instead to discount it.
By 2019 however the Tory vote in Oxford West had fallen to 38% and the Brexit Party got 1.4%, quite a swing away from the right against the national trend, mainly due to its high Remain vote I suspect
By the way, let me add to the praise for tlg. Really interesting!
It like during the blitz of WWII worrying that the postman might not keep quite the same hours as normal.
It is how I keep turning up peoples' (my own included) blown predictions.
I would be embarrassed if I was a serious journalist at some in my profession.
I had assumed that it would be the SNP suing the Westminster government to ascertain the legality of an advisory referendum. By inverting it and daring Westminster to sue the Scottish Gov after the Scottish government had been elected on an explicit platform of having a referendum utterly changes the narrative.
Also publishing this plan completely and utterly shoots the foxes of her "wHeRE is PLaN B Nicola??!?" internal opponents.
Assuming the end of the UK pandemic this year, and globally by next (I’m an optimist), normal politics will resume. I don’t expect a vast reserve of gratitude for the government’s efforts, fair or not.
Here it is, in all its glory:
If it's 90% effective on a more rigorous testing regime than the others, costs a tenth to make and can be stored in a bog-standard piece of kit without spending zillions on dry ice:
Then screw the other vaccines, this is the real deal.
And massive credit to AZ and Cowley Tech for making it available on a not-for-profit basis to the developing world.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3131563
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1353345730015059968
Here is another dickhead moment... JVT trying to explain to this tw@t he knows f##k all about f##k all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVyNQ34kDUc
The Tories in my London ward were always telling me that my seat was ‘on loan’, and they’d win it back next time. During my first campaign I canvassed the house of the local Tory ward chairman (back when I was young and fearless), and she told me she couldn’t understand why I was spending so much time campaigning because she knew that we would never win her ward.
On the way into the count in 1994, the Tory agent told me my campaigning had been a waste of time as their figures showed they had held the seat. Yet I won by over a thousand (which is a lot).
After that count they advised me to enjoy the next four years as the seat was on loan and they’d win it back next time. Which they didn’t.
In the council chamber each time the election approached I’d hear the same lines from the Tories, yet would be re-elected. During the coalition both Tory and Labour councillors took pleasure in predicting we’d all lose our seats in 2014, yet we did manage to hang on, just.
The Tories never gave up their imagined ‘ownership’ of my ward despite LibDems representing it for a full twenty four years.
The Plan Bers still seem pretty exercised, though not to the extent of producing a coherent Plan B themselves. One of them was actually tweeting what was the point of having Holyrood. The Scotpol horseshoe is almost a circle now.
I’d massively prefer, for example, that Gavin Williamson were political editor of ITV news than Education Secretary.
My ward in Epping for example is solidly Tory at general elections but all 3 district councillors are LD, you might not vote LD for national government but you might vote LD for their perceived ability to mend potholes, get the bins collected and oppose new housing
Now, the area (following rewarding) is mostly represented by Labour councillors.
Do you mean ultra vires and would be restrained via judicial review, or do you mean that it would literally be an offence?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/south-africa-paying-more-than-double-eu-price-for-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine
London still lagging though.
However once it had taken place Madrid simply ignored the result, suspended the Catalan Parliament and ordered the arrest of Catalan nationalist leaders for holding an illegal referendum without the consent of the central government
It also works in reverse. Look what happened to Richard Taylor in Wyre Forest when he tried to win the seat back in 2015. Once he lost the incumbency bonus, his vote when down considerably.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyre_Forest_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
See also Gordon Birtwistle for the Lib Dems in Burnley:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
It’s very useful indeed - I don’t know of any other single source of such a variety of top quality précis information -you just have to be selective in what you pay attention to.
If she then defied the Court Sturgeon's arrest could be ordered for contempt of court.
The Business Day report cited health department Deputy Director-General Anban Pillay as saying the price was based on South Africa’s level of development and its past investment in research and development.
“We were advised that SII has applied a tiered pricing system, and given that (South Africa) is an upper-middle-income country, their price is $5.25. The explanation we were given for why other high-income countries have a lower price is that they have invested in the (research and development), hence the discount on the price,” it quoted him as saying.
The SII, which Business Day said did not respond to requests for comment, is one of several manufacturers licensed by AstraZeneca to make its COVID-19 vaccine. South Africa is due to procure 1.5 million of the shots from the institute.
Other nations or blocs are paying much less. In June, for instance, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France negotiated a price of around $2.50 per shot for 300 million doses from AstraZeneca as part of a European deal to secure supplies of the drug.
The SII is also set to supply 100 million doses of the vaccine to the African Union for $3 each, Reuters reported.
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-safrica-vaccines/safrica-to-pay-big-premium-for-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-from-indias-sii-business-day-idUSL1N2JW0DH
There's a big difference between not trusting what those we dislike tell us and assuming everything is fake or has malicious motivation. The latter would be on us, not them, no matter how untrustworthy they are.
FPT I was more thinking that Canada could never get someone as grossly ignorant as Trump -- because the Canadian PM has to be bilingual.
Johnson, Drakeford & Paul Davies all have serious flaws as politicians, but they are intellectual giants compared to an ignoramus like Tump.
Lose
Lose
Lose
Lose
Blair
Blair
Blair
Lose
Lose
Lose
Lose
But the AZ one really does seem remarkably cheap and convenient.
Though someone else awhile back was saying that the most effective of the vaccines like Pfizer are made with more cutting edge kit, while AZ and others are made with much more bare bones techniques?
So keeping the Union but with devomax would win a narrow majority again for No
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13793437/tony-blair-son-start-up-company-147million/
The answer to your second may be that God moves in mysterious ways. And has a perverse sense of humour.