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MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD? – politicalbetting.com

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    Endillion said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:


    A fair point. But in terms of domestic politics Chakrabarti takes the biscuit. Wot, no anti Semitism 'ere, yes I'll ave a peerage, Ta muchly

    To think she once carried the Olympic flag, and was beloved by all

    Antisemitism eh? Lest we forget:
    Leon said:


    Bless, You think an unexpected early deal between - cough - Israel- - and - cough - Pfizer - was made on the basis of the sharing of medical data?

    Israel. And. Pfizer.

    Hm.

    Or the deal was made because Israel agreed to pay BILLIONS over the odds to secure the global life-raft of the Jewish people? Colour me cynical, but I suspect a large amount of money played a significant role

    Believe it or not. my remark was PHILO-Semitic.

    Israel makes great efforts to preserve Jewish lives, as is only right, in a nation expressly conceived as the ultimate protector of the Jews, after the Holocaust.

    Israel has many hideous flaws, but in this case, it acted wisely, and with foresight, and tried to do its one, primary, overrriding task. Whether it will succeed is another matter. The data fluctuate.
    "Making mendacious, dehumanizing, demonizing, or stereotypical allegations about Jews as such or the power of Jews as collective — such as, especially but not exclusively, the myth about a world Jewish conspiracy or of Jews controlling the media, economy, government or other societal institutions."

    "Accusing Jewish citizens of being more loyal to Israel, or to the alleged priorities of Jews worldwide, than to the interests of their own nations."

    Pfizer, whose CEO is Jewish.
    Israel.
    And the "cough cough".

    I mean, what are we supposed to think? People don't do that "cough cough" thing when they're handing out praise.
    Oh, and the money thing. These insinuations always end up being about money, don't they?

    I see you, Leon.
    lol. Given the history of anti-Semitism, across all societies, and throughout history, if I were Jewish, I would be - albeit with many heavy criticisms, and conditions - overall pro-the-existence-of-Israel, and very grateful for their clever deployment of the vaccine early on.

    If they paid over the odds for the jab, who cares, so did the UK; and the cost of the plague, when it gets out of control, is much much higher. As we have seen
    That seems fair, but you should still probably stop talking about the money, since there's (as far as I know) no evidence for it, and Ms Batty is correct that it's not a good look.
    I thought the Isreali PM was criticised for spending too much on vaccine procurement?
    None of the numbers being bandied around are remotely consistent with "billions over the odds".

    Anyway, paying more for priority access is just business. The insinuations would only be problematic if they were alleging side deals being done under the table.
    Yeah, it's fair enough, but I don't see why it can't be talked about. It was a totally legitimate way of getting more supplies quickly.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,996
    edited January 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    just watched the Michael Fagan "intruder" episode of The Crown

    Having met Fagan, several times, I can confirm that it is a true portrayal of the man, albeit tinged with leftwing scriptwriterly bias. He would not have said these absurd Corbyn-manifesto sentences.

    But they successfully captured the essence of him. A bit mad, but smart

    If you don't mind me asking, how did you come to meet him?
    You don't think Leon is....the Queen?!
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    just watched the Michael Fagan "intruder" episode of The Crown

    Having met Fagan, several times, I can confirm that it is a true portrayal of the man, albeit tinged with leftwing scriptwriterly bias. He would not have said these absurd Corbyn-manifesto sentences.

    But they successfully captured the essence of him. A bit mad, but smart

    If you don't mind me asking, how did you come to meet him?
    One of them clearly broke into the other's house, but which way round?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,435

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    just watched the Michael Fagan "intruder" episode of The Crown

    Having met Fagan, several times, I can confirm that it is a true portrayal of the man, albeit tinged with leftwing scriptwriterly bias. He would not have said these absurd Corbyn-manifesto sentences.

    But they successfully captured the essence of him. A bit mad, but smart

    If you don't mind me asking, how did you come to meet him?
    You don't think Leon is....the Queen?!
    I give up. I am unmasked. I AM THE QUEEN
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Floater said:
    "Yonhap News Agency" sounds like it could just as easily be a broadcaster for modern day Korea, or Medieval era England.

    Yonhap. For all the news that happened yon.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Apparently the UK has just overtaken Italy to have the highest Covid per capita death rate in the world, at 1,437 per million people. If my maths is right that means it's scrubbed about 0.15% of the UK population so far, and we're also comfortably in excess of the entire UK civilian death toll for both World Wars. This might have changed a little by the end of the pandemic, if other countries have been less thorough in their reporting or if our pandemic is ended by vaccination well before theirs, but it's hard to imagine that we won't be on the rostrum for unwanted medals in this category when this is all over.
    England must be miles ahead then given all the other UK nations are well under their numbers.
    The extent depends on how counted, though Northern Ireland getting the gold star either way.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

    Deaths within 28 days of positive test rate per 100k

    Wales 143.7
    Scotland 104.4
    Northern Ireland 91.4
    England 152.7

    Deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate per 100k

    Wales 171.2
    Scotland 129.4
    Northern Ireland 104.3
    England 144.6
    I would be interested in respective excess deaths per 100,000. I still consider that to be the most reliable measure, particularly when comparing relative performance.
    Figures here, under Additional Death Data
    https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/deaths
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    If they want to conquer and retake Taiwan, roughly about now would be ideal. Otherwise they will have to wait until about 2035, when they have total economic supremacy and regional hegemony.

    Either way, it is coming
    Depends if Taiwan has developed a nuclear bomb by then, which is not impossible. It is a highly educated and technical population.
    If Taiwan goes nuclear, Japan will follow about 5 minutes later. Then everyone in a 1000 kilometre radius will want heavy metal.

    Not following up on the promise to Ukraine looks better and better all the time, doesn't it?
    I should think a Taiwan nuclear weapon is more likely than not, while the US would go to war with China to defend Japan or South Korea, a Taiwan invasion would likely just be met by US sanctions on China. So Taiwan's government has to take all necessary measures to put off China from invading

    I don’t think you quite understand the strategic importance of Taiwan to the US. Or its economic importance.

    China is the best part of a decade behind in high end chip manufacturing. By a historical accident, Taiwan makes a large proportion of the world’s most advanced chips.
    This relates it rather well.
    https://twitter.com/SahilBloom/status/1353369463190560773
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    edited January 2021
    If you ranked every country in the world according to the following factors — (a) population density, (b) people with diabetes and other conditions related to being overweight/obesity, (c) percentage of elderly people, (d) connectivity in terms of large numbers of people leaving, arriving, travelling on a regular basis — the UK would probably come near the top of the list, if not at the top of the list. Those are exactly the factors that make the spread and severity of Covid-19 more likely, and therefore they probably explain why we have one of the worst death rates. All of those factors were already present before Covid-19 existed so it may have been very difficult to counter them, even with the best possible response.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Andy_JS said:

    If you ranked every country in the world according to the following factors — (a) population density, (b) people with diabetes and other conditions related to being overweight/obesity, (c) percentage of elderly people, (d) connectivity in terms of large numbers of people leaving, arriving, travelling on a regular basis — the UK would probably come near the top of the list, if not at the top of the list. Those are exactly the factors that make the spread and severity of Covid-19 more likely, and therefore they probably explain why we have one of the worst death rates. All of those factors were already present before Covid-19 existed so it may have been very difficult to counter them, even with the best possible response.

    Good point, but the UK also likes to think we have a `world beating' healthcare system and effective state infrastructure (welfare state etc) to deal with this sort of shock. Unfortunately, for whatever reason we haven't and I for one would like to see a Royal Commission to tell us why.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Andy_JS said:

    If you ranked every country in the world according to the following factors — (a) population density, (b) people with diabetes and other conditions related to being overweight/obesity, (c) percentage of elderly people, (d) connectivity in terms of large numbers of people leaving, arriving, travelling on a regular basis — the UK would probably come near the top of the list, if not at the top of the list. Those are exactly the factors that make the spread and severity of Covid-19 more likely, and therefore they probably explain why we have one of the worst death rates. All of those factors were already present before Covid-19 existed so it may have been very difficult to counter them, even with the best possible response.

    Two other factors are really important:

    (1) Percentage of single person households. Much harder to get CV19 if you aren't living with other people.

    (2) Proportion of intergenerational households. Can young people pass it on to their older relatves.

    So, Sweden did well because it has lots of group one, and very few of group two. While Italy and Spain have very few of group one, and lots of group two.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Leon said:

    FWIW The Univ of Washington model is now predicting 156,000+ UK deaths by May 1, 2021

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom


    I can remember when Neil Ferguson's prediction of 500,000 UK dead, if we made NO attempt to suppress the virus, was met with total derision on here

    A horrific total. Possibly the worst, per capita, in the world. Tho we will be comfortably beaten, in total numbers, by India, Mexico, Brazil and the USA

    Given that the model doesn't even have the correct historical numbers and also manages to measure number of deaths to two decimal places I would have doubts about it.
    Yep, those models seem a waste of time as the course of the pandemic largely depends on governments' policy choices. Unless they're trying to predict those? Mind you, the 156k number does look realistic considering where we currently are.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019

    Leon said:


    A fair point. But in terms of domestic politics Chakrabarti takes the biscuit. Wot, no anti Semitism 'ere, yes I'll ave a peerage, Ta muchly

    To think she once carried the Olympic flag, and was beloved by all

    Antisemitism eh? Lest we forget:
    Leon said:


    Bless, You think an unexpected early deal between - cough - Israel- - and - cough - Pfizer - was made on the basis of the sharing of medical data?

    Israel. And. Pfizer.

    Hm.

    Or the deal was made because Israel agreed to pay BILLIONS over the odds to secure the global life-raft of the Jewish people? Colour me cynical, but I suspect a large amount of money played a significant role

    Ha. Also the Venn diagram of people who love to mouth off about the scourge of Labour anti-semitism, and those who rail about "globalists" is a good one.

    And now I've thought about Nick Timothy for the first time in months, and I need to punch something.
This discussion has been closed.