politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s poll of the CON-LD marginals – the headline

Broken, sleazy, back-stabbing, duplicitous, nasty, vindictive, Lib-Dems on the slide... In the marginals...

Protest votes move from LDs to UKIP - what will happen at the GE? Clearly Europe Q means nothing to these voters as the 2 parties are so opposite to each other?

Will be fascinating to see what's happening in Lab-LD marginals now in the new Lord A poll. Will Tory supporters be helping out their partners versus the bad boy reds? We've always been told they aren't clever enough to do so...

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Protest votes move from LDs to UKIP - what will happen at the GE?

Will be fascinating to see what's happening in Lab-LD marginals now in the new Lord A poll.

When's that one coming out?

Ed's still doing his big relaunch mind you is the big news...

Paul Waugh‏@paulwaugh·4 mins
RT @michaelsavage "I relish the next 10 months, I relish the next 10 months," says Ed Miliband. His Kevin Keegan moment?

The Lib Dems holding Eastleigh comfortably, fill yer boots, 8/15 now.

Scott_P said:

@michaelsavage: "I relish the next 10 months, I relish the next 10 months," says Ed Miliband. His Kevin Keegan moment?

When you do that with policies like he said about Europe, and when you do things like that about a man like Jean-Claude Juncker - I've kept really quiet, but I'll tell you something, he went down in my estimation when he said that - we have not resorted to that. But I'll tell ya - you can tell him now if you're watching it - we're still fighting for this election, and he's got to go to the marginals and get something, and... and I tell you honestly, I will love it if we beat them, love it!

MarkSenior said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

10/3 on the Lib Dems having between 21-30 seats looking good value to me

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats-banded

Disagree mid 30s is indicated by the poll 5/1 for over 40 is better value IMHO .

I understand the logic, I'm just expecting the Lib Dems to do worse in the seats where the Tories aren't second.

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft · 3 mins
65% of Con defectors to UKIP in Con-LD seats would rather have a Tory govt than anything else; 89% prefer DC as PM. http://bit.ly/1qgIsMv

Plenty of scope for tactical Con voting if the tories can mine that seam of voters back.

Iraq
"... the underlying problem is not to do with the presence or absence of Western soldiers. It’s to do with the synthetic nature of the Iraqi state. "

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100276894/the-case-for-patriotism-and-for-the-partition-of-iraq/

felix said:

As a strong Tory supporter I remain a sceptic about the value of marginal polling in general and Ashcroft polls in particular. He has spent a lot of money and his weekly polls are interesting but have fluctuated a lot. I still think Populus/YG/ICM have the edge.

We have never had marginals polling as detailed and comprehensive as this. I can see why you don't like the numbers as you preface your remarks with your allegiance.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Ed's still doing his big relaunch mind you is the big news...

Yes, the #YouthTax announcement is the big news of the day. Lucky for Ed there is nothing likely to eclipse that in the papers tomorrow...

The two Ashcroft seats that feature in the "JackW Dozen" - North Cornwall and Watford are both TCTC - fewer than 500 votes with me and a tie and Con +5 with Lord A.

JackW said:

The two Ashcroft seats that feature in the "JackW Dozen" - North Cornwall and Watford are both TCTC - fewer than 500 votes with me and a tie and Con +5 with Lord A.

Sorry Jack (and Lord A), but us punters are waiting for Ave It to call Watford.

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

The two Ashcroft seats that feature in the "JackW Dozen" - North Cornwall and Watford are both TCTC - fewer than 500 votes with me and a tie and Con +5 with Lord A.

Sorry Jack (and Lord A), but us punters are waiting for Ave It to call Watford.

Watford = Tories = Full of win!

Bye, bye, Labour!

Another great public service from Lord A. Bravo!

On one important point, though, I think he might be wrong. He writes:

the results amount to an effective 3.5 per cent swing from the Lib Dems to the Tories since 2010. This would be enough for the Conservatives to unseat 15 Lib Dem MPs if this were to happen across the board next May.

But one big lesson from this research is not to assume any kind of uniform swing where the Lib Dems are concerned. The swing to the Tories was as high as nine per cent in Newton Abbot, but in the Lib Dem-held seats of Cheadle, Eastleigh and Sutton & Cheam the swing was in the other direction. There was also no straightforward regional pattern. Though swings were generally less favourable to the Tories in urban and suburban seats, in Cornwall they ranged from 2.5 per cent (St Ives) to eight per cent (Truro & Falmouth). The swing to the Conservatives in Wells (three per cent) was less than half than in neighbouring Somerton & Frome (7.5 per cent).

I'm not sure that this is a correct reading of the statistics. Even though it's an heroically large poll (17000 voters in all!), his weighted sample size in any given constituency, once you adjust for Don't Know/Would Not Vote/Won't Say, is around 500. The margin of error on that is something like 4% on a given vote share, so the variations between constituencies which Lord A is finding might be statistical noise.

German Free Democrats:

2009: 14.6%, 93 seats
2013: 4.8%, 0 seats

The horrific seat loss is partly an artefact of the German PR system with a 5% threshold, but still...

No doubt Markus von Senior was still projecting 40 seats for them in late 2012.

This poll is sort of in-line with the Lib-Dems probably losing about half their seats isn't it? 60 to 30,something like that? Which is about where expectations have been for some time?

BETTING POST

If you took the 9-4 on the Tories in Torbay you may well want to back the Lib Dems there at 8-11.

I've gone £50 9-4 Conservative
£90 8-11 Lib Dem

I'm amazed at Shady's new LD price there to be perfectly honest.

TOday's bets:

£50 @ 4-6 Eastleigh (Lib Dems)
£90 @ 8-11 Torbay (Lib Dems)

GIN1138 said:

This poll is sort of in-line with the Lib-Dems probably losing about half their seats isn't it? 60 to 30,something like that? Which is about where expectations have been for some time?

As JackW says the poll would take the Lib Dems down to 35/36 seats from 57 rather higher than some doom mongers on here have been trumpeting .

Tissue_Price said:

German Free Democrats:

2009: 14.6%, 93 seats
2013: 4.8%, 0 seats

The horrific seat loss is partly an artefact of the German PR system with a 5% threshold, but still...

No doubt Markus von Senior was still projecting 40 seats for them in late 2012.

No other party in Germany has governed as long as the Free Democrats. The FDP - economically and socially liberal has been in government 52 of the 64 years since the war. Now they are out of parliament.
The FDP has been part of more governments in post-war Germany than any other party. It supplied Germany's first president, Theodor Heuss, in 1949, and one of the world's most influential foreign ministers, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, from 1974 until 1992.
But 4.8% was not good enough, they needed 5%.

@MissEllieMae: Nick Pearce of IPPR just referred to austerity as "fiscal realism." Game set match Tories #ConditionOfBritain

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Thread idea

Is Ed M Labour's David Moyes....

Moyes tipped Spain, of course: http://t.co/G3Ibg6NkRP

There has to be enough Lib-Dems left in the next parliament to help with the impeachment of Mr Anthony Blair...

TOPPING said:

Just looked up to see Sky News interviewing an18-21yr old obviously affected by EdM's new policy, judging by his sulky scowl, only to realise it was Owen Jones.

Brilliant. Laughed loudly at that one.

Speedy said:

Its no coincidence that the only 3 seats that defy the national fall of 16% for the LD by quite a bit are Watford, Eastleigh, and Sutton, the latter 2 having by far the biggest increase from Q2.

What is the common factor if I may ask btw.

Scott_P said:

@MissEllieMae: Nick Pearce of IPPR just referred to austerity as "fiscal realism." Game set match Tories #ConditionOfBritain

No serious challenge on the Left exists to Third Way thinking anywhere in the world. This is hardly surprising as globalisation punishes hard any country that tries to run its economy by ignoring the realities of the market or prudent public finances. In this strictly narrow sense, and in the urgent need to remove rigidities and incorporate flexibility in capital, product and labour markets, we are all "Thatcherite" now.
- P. Mandelson, writing in The Times, 2002.

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

Its no coincidence that the only 3 seats that defy the national fall of 16% for the LD by quite a bit are Watford, Eastleigh, and Sutton, the latter 2 having by far the biggest increase from Q2.

What is the common factor if I may ask btw.

The names of all those constituencies have vowels in them.

rcs1000 said:

GIN1138 said:

This poll is sort of in-line with the Lib-Dems probably losing about half their seats isn't it? 60 to 30,something like that? Which is about where expectations have been for some time?

Yes.

It's almost impossible for the Libs to lose less than about 40% of their seats (down to say 25 seats).

The interesting question is whether they are at 14% nationally, and get to keep 35 seats.
Or whether they are nearer 10%, when they'll have fewer than 10 seats.

That's nonsense Robert.

Even at polling nationally at 10%, which this Ashcroft polling reflects, the LibDems would likely hold 20+ seats.

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

GIN1138 said:

This poll is sort of in-line with the Lib-Dems probably losing about half their seats isn't it? 60 to 30,something like that? Which is about where expectations have been for some time?

Yes.

It's almost impossible for the Libs to lose less than about 40% of their seats (down to say 25 seats).

The interesting question is whether they are at 14% nationally, and get to keep 35 seats.
Or whether they are nearer 10%, when they'll have fewer than 10 seats.

That's nonsense Robert.

Even at polling nationally at 10%, which this Ashcroft polling reflects, the LibDems would likely hold 20+ seats.

They need to fall at 6% for fewer that 10 seats though, and we have seen 6% just days ago.

rcs1000 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On these figures we could be heading to 0 female LD MPs. Maybe a remote shot but will a bookie offer any odds?

I think Lynne Featherstone will hang on in Hornsey and Wood Green.

Other than that...

The Lib Dems were thrashed in her seat last month. She'll somehow have to squeeze a large Green vote there but in a forced choice between Labour and Lib Dem surely most would go for the former these days? If she does hold on it will be a remarkable personal triumph.

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

Its no coincidence that the only 3 seats that defy the national fall of 16% for the LD by quite a bit are Watford, Eastleigh, and Sutton, the latter 2 having by far the biggest increase from Q2.

What is the common factor if I may ask btw.

The own constituency and candidates question deforms the voting intention so much in those 2 seats that they are the only 2 defying the national swing.

Pulpstar said:

The logical colloraly is that the Lib Dems are going to have a humungous number of lost deposits at the GE.

Absolutely. I'm on 150+ lost LD deposits at 5/1

Speedy said:

GIN1138 said:

MarkSenior said:

GIN1138 said:

This poll is sort of in-line with the Lib-Dems probably losing about half their seats isn't it? 60 to 30,something like that? Which is about where expectations have been for some time?

As JackW says the poll would take the Lib Dems down to 35/36 seats from 57 rather higher than some doom mongers on here have been trumpeting .

Aside from joking I've always said the Lib-Dems won't be facing oblivion in 2015. A bit of a pasting yes, but not a meltdown...

Though I did waver after the Euro-Elections when I saw how badly the Lib-Dems responded...

Somewhere around the region of 27-32 seats left.
(LD-LAB marginals is the big question now)

Well, a number will flip Labour by default:

Burnley
Redcar
Manchester Withington
Brent
Bradford East
Norwich South

The ones that are more interesting are:
Horney & Wood Green, which I think Lynne will hold because (a) they continue to have very good local election performances in the area, and (b) Highgate Conservatives will hold their noses and vote tactically.

Cambridge, where OGH thinks Julian will hang on. I think it's a difficult call because of the large transient (student) population. Certainly, Labour has been in retreat in the constituency. But I'd still call this a Labour gain.

Birmingham Yardley, where I think Labour gains.

Southwalk, where I suspect Simon Hughes clings on barely.

Argyll & Bute, which I'd peg as a Labour gain, but which might be held, and which might go SNP...

Inverness, where I think the SNP gains. But Danny may get Conservative tactical votes, and see the SNP and Labour sharing the rest.

I'd reckon 25-30 seats is the likeliest outcome. Which is - of course - the best result for the a third party, excepting the results of the 13 years from 1997 to 2010.

The national swing

Lets go off Lord A's numbers - not great for Con, not great for LD either... but the methodology will be consistent within his national and local VI polls.

36 -> 29 Con -7

26 -> 8 Lib Dem -18

(Someone correct me if those are wrong)

5.5% swing

He's found 3.5% avg swing in the named places !

rcs1000 said:

LogicalSong said:

Tissue_Price said:

German Free Democrats:

2009: 14.6%, 93 seats
2013: 4.8%, 0 seats

The horrific seat loss is partly an artefact of the German PR system with a 5% threshold, but still...

No doubt Markus von Senior was still projecting 40 seats for them in late 2012.

No other party in Germany has governed as long as the Free Democrats. The FDP - economically and socially liberal has been in government 52 of the 64 years since the war. Now they are out of parliament.
The FDP has been part of more governments in post-war Germany than any other party. It supplied Germany's first president, Theodor Heuss, in 1949, and one of the world's most influential foreign ministers, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, from 1974 until 1992.
But 4.8% was not good enough, they needed 5%.

Also, the FDP (which is nothing like the LibDems, what with them being economically liberal and all) essentially split into pro- and anti- European wings (i.e. the FDP and AfD), with both polled marginally below 5%.

Interesting, I didn't know that AfD split off from the FDP. The point I was making was that Merkel wasn't completely correct about the smaller coalition partner generally getting smashed. Although she was right this time. She was very popular and if the FDP split wouldn't have helped.

Neil said:

rcs1000 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On these figures we could be heading to 0 female LD MPs. Maybe a remote shot but will a bookie offer any odds?

I think Lynne Featherstone will hang on in Hornsey and Wood Green.

Other than that...

The Lib Dems were thrashed in her seat last month. She'll somehow have to squeeze a large Green vote there but in a forced choice between Labour and Lib Dem surely most would go for the former these days? If she does hold on it will be a remarkable personal triumph.

They weren't spanked: in the nine wards that make up the constituency, there were something like 5 split wards, 1 LibDem and 3 Labour.

MikeSmithson said:

Neil said:

rcs1000 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On these figures we could be heading to 0 female LD MPs. Maybe a remote shot but will a bookie offer any odds?

I think Lynne Featherstone will hang on in Hornsey and Wood Green.

Other than that...

The Lib Dems were thrashed in her seat last month. She'll somehow have to squeeze a large Green vote there but in a forced choice between Labour and Lib Dem surely most would go for the former these days? If she does hold on it will be a remarkable personal triumph.

There's been a fair bit of private polling and my understanding is that Lynne Featherstone is in with a fighting chance.

She just got such a good reputation locally as is coming out in focus groups.

I dont deny she has a chance but after the locals last month she cant be feeling too comfortable. In a higher turnout election the LDs will be starting even further behind than they were last month (about 12%) and Labour would seem to have a better chance of squeezing the Greens here than the LDs (and the Green vote is the only sizeable vote left to squeeze there). As I said it would be a remarkable personal triumph if she held on.

felix said:

MikeSmithson said:

felix said:

As a strong Tory supporter I remain a sceptic about the value of marginal polling in general and Ashcroft polls in particular. He has spent a lot of money and his weekly polls are interesting but have fluctuated a lot. I still think Populus/YG/ICM have the edge.

We have never had marginals polling as detailed and comprehensive as this. I can see why you don't like the numbers as you preface your remarks with your allegiance.

Wrong - the numbers aren't bad for my party as it goes - I simply feel that the Ashcroft investment, big as it is, leaves me underwhelmed as to the reliability of his marginal polling. I certainly would be unwilling to draw too many conclusions from it about what may happen next year.

If the Lord A polls had the Conservatives outperforming national swing in these seats would you have believed in them ?

Neil said:

MikeSmithson said:

Neil said:

rcs1000 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On these figures we could be heading to 0 female LD MPs. Maybe a remote shot but will a bookie offer any odds?

I think Lynne Featherstone will hang on in Hornsey and Wood Green.

Other than that...

The Lib Dems were thrashed in her seat last month. She'll somehow have to squeeze a large Green vote there but in a forced choice between Labour and Lib Dem surely most would go for the former these days? If she does hold on it will be a remarkable personal triumph.

There's been a fair bit of private polling and my understanding is that Lynne Featherstone is in with a fighting chance.

She just got such a good reputation locally as is coming out in focus groups.

I dont deny she has a chance but after the locals last month she cant be feeling too comfortable. In a higher turnout election the LDs will be starting even further behind than they were last month (about 12%) and Labour would seem to have a better chance of squeezing the Greens here than the LDs (and the Green vote is the only sizeable vote left to squeeze there). As I said it would be a remarkable personal triumph if she held on.

There's neatly 10,000 Tory voters there, I wonder if they would vote tactically to keep her in?

JackW said:

Speedy said:

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

GIN1138 said:

This poll is sort of in-line with the Lib-Dems probably losing about half their seats isn't it? 60 to 30,something like that? Which is about where expectations have been for some time?

Yes.

It's almost impossible for the Libs to lose less than about 40% of their seats (down to say 25 seats).

The interesting question is whether they are at 14% nationally, and get to keep 35 seats.
Or whether they are nearer 10%, when they'll have fewer than 10 seats.

That's nonsense Robert.

Even at polling nationally at 10%, which this Ashcroft polling reflects, the LibDems would likely hold 20+ seats.

They need to fall at 6% for fewer that 10 seats though, and we have seen 6% just days ago.

Indeed in a YouGov poll and it's most unlikely there'll be there in May 2015.

Rationalizing LibDem seats against 6% 8% 10% 12% or 14% is unwise. Since Feb 74 Lib/LibDem seats have never neatly matched national % share.

It's much wiser to look at their seats as hotspots and work from there.

Well the national drop for the LD is 16% on average, in this poll, they drop 19% in CON-LD marginals and 14.5% in LD-CON marginals, that is not far off the national swing.

A 4.5% increase for LD seats compared with non LD seats here might be large enough for them to keep some seats extra but its only 1.5% less than their fall nationally so it wont be far from a UNS result.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

MikeSmithson said:

Neil said:

rcs1000 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On these figures we could be heading to 0 female LD MPs. Maybe a remote shot but will a bookie offer any odds?

I think Lynne Featherstone will hang on in Hornsey and Wood Green.

Other than that...

The Lib Dems were thrashed in her seat last month. She'll somehow have to squeeze a large Green vote there but in a forced choice between Labour and Lib Dem surely most would go for the former these days? If she does hold on it will be a remarkable personal triumph.

There's been a fair bit of private polling and my understanding is that Lynne Featherstone is in with a fighting chance.

She just got such a good reputation locally as is coming out in focus groups.

I dont deny she has a chance but after the locals last month she cant be feeling too comfortable. In a higher turnout election the LDs will be starting even further behind than they were last month (about 12%) and Labour would seem to have a better chance of squeezing the Greens here than the LDs (and the Green vote is the only sizeable vote left to squeeze there). As I said it would be a remarkable personal triumph if she held on.

There's neatly 10,000 Tory voters there, I wonder if they would vote tactically to keep her in?

The Tories got about 10% there last month - not a hell of a lot left to squeeze I would have thought (indeed many of the 10,000 from 2010 may have voted Lib Dem this time). The Greens got 15% and you can see a significant proportion of that being squeezed (and more to Labour's benefit than the Lib Dems).

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

MikeSmithson said:

Neil said:

rcs1000 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On these figures we could be heading to 0 female LD MPs. Maybe a remote shot but will a bookie offer any odds?

I think Lynne Featherstone will hang on in Hornsey and Wood Green.

Other than that...

The Lib Dems were thrashed in her seat last month. She'll somehow have to squeeze a large Green vote there but in a forced choice between Labour and Lib Dem surely most would go for the former these days? If she does hold on it will be a remarkable personal triumph.

There's been a fair bit of private polling and my understanding is that Lynne Featherstone is in with a fighting chance.

She just got such a good reputation locally as is coming out in focus groups.

I dont deny she has a chance but after the locals last month she cant be feeling too comfortable. In a higher turnout election the LDs will be starting even further behind than they were last month (about 12%) and Labour would seem to have a better chance of squeezing the Greens here than the LDs (and the Green vote is the only sizeable vote left to squeeze there). As I said it would be a remarkable personal triumph if she held on.

There's neatly 10,000 Tory voters there, I wonder if they would vote tactically to keep her in?

The Tories got about 10% there last month - not a hell of a lot left to squeeze I would have thought (indeed many of the 10,000 from 2010 may have voted Lib Dem this time). The Greens got 15% and you can see a significant proportion of that being squeezed (and more to Labour's benefit than the Lib Dems).

Maybe it's my inherent ingenuousness or Toryness (same thing, I know) but I would be very interested to know the extent of tactical voting.

I have the vaguest clue of how close the race is in my own constituency and I was actively involved. I would challenge the "man on the street", Lab or Cons or LD to really know what on earth the situation was in theirs to the point whereby they are confident that they can place a cross for another party's candidate with confidence that somehow they are not getting it all wrong.

Plus there is surely a something-not-right feeling about voting, the most precious democratic gift we have, for someone or something you don't believe in.

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

MikeSmithson said:

Neil said:

rcs1000 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On these figures we could be heading to 0 female LD MPs. Maybe a remote shot but will a bookie offer any odds?

I think Lynne Featherstone will hang on in Hornsey and Wood Green.

Other than that...

The Lib Dems were thrashed in her seat last month. She'll somehow have to squeeze a large Green vote there but in a forced choice between Labour and Lib Dem surely most would go for the former these days? If she does hold on it will be a remarkable personal triumph.

There's been a fair bit of private polling and my understanding is that Lynne Featherstone is in with a fighting chance.

She just got such a good reputation locally as is coming out in focus groups.

I dont deny she has a chance but after the locals last month she cant be feeling too comfortable. In a higher turnout election the LDs will be starting even further behind than they were last month (about 12%) and Labour would seem to have a better chance of squeezing the Greens here than the LDs (and the Green vote is the only sizeable vote left to squeeze there). As I said it would be a remarkable personal triumph if she held on.

There's neatly 10,000 Tory voters there, I wonder if they would vote tactically to keep her in?

The Tories got about 10% there last month - not a hell of a lot left to squeeze I would have thought (indeed many of the 10,000 from 2010 may have voted Lib Dem this time). The Greens got 15% and you can see a significant proportion of that being squeezed (and more to Labour's benefit than the Lib Dems).

Ok, she's doomed.

Tykejohnno said:

Tory Chairman @ToryChairman

Party Chairman @grantshapps tells the BBC: "I kid you not. Labour have spent their so-called bank bonus tax 10 times over". #SameOldLabour

This can't be true,if labour using this tax again on the announcements today,people will see right through it,pathetic if true.

Not again.

As someone who is from Eastleigh I have always found it surprising when people have said on here that Eastleigh is a key UKIP target. UKIP will never win Eastleigh, Eastleigh is LIb Dem heaven. If the Lib Dems lose Eastleigh will have no MPs.

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

The two Ashcroft seats that feature in the "JackW Dozen" - North Cornwall and Watford are both TCTC - fewer than 500 votes with me and a tie and Con +5 with Lord A.

Sorry Jack (and Lord A), but us punters are waiting for Ave It to call Watford.

Certainly cannot be worse than the outpourings from Jack's ARSE

And yet whilst you just spew bile on the site my ARSE has been consistently accurate in forecasting General Elections both here and across the pond.

JackW said:

malcolmg said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

The two Ashcroft seats that feature in the "JackW Dozen" - North Cornwall and Watford are both TCTC - fewer than 500 votes with me and a tie and Con +5 with Lord A.

Sorry Jack (and Lord A), but us punters are waiting for Ave It to call Watford.

Certainly cannot be worse than the outpourings from Jack's ARSE

And yet whilst you just spew bile on the site my ARSE has been consistently accurate in forecasting General Elections both here and across the pond.

We have always respected your Santorum, JackW!