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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s poll of the CON-LD marginals – the headline
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Further detail from @LordAshcroft mega-poll of LD-CON marginals
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Will be fascinating to see what's happening in Lab-LD marginals now in the new Lord A poll. Will Tory supporters be helping out their partners versus the bad boy reds? We've always been told they aren't clever enough to do so...
Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·4 mins
RT @michaelsavage "I relish the next 10 months, I relish the next 10 months," says Ed Miliband. His Kevin Keegan moment?
"The Tory hope that 2010 winners will get a first time incumbency bonus barely registers in the Ashcroft polling"
THURSDAY
"What @LordAshcroft poll didn't do was name the candidates/incumbents which is likely to have had an impact."
Snarf....
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats-banded
Also worth noting that the surveys took place at the recent nadir of LibDem national polling and it's highly likely that their national number will recover by May 2015.
On a quick crunch of the Ashcroft numbers the most recent ARSE LibDem 2015 projection of 31 seats is a shy by 4/5 seats.
65% of Con defectors to UKIP in Con-LD seats would rather have a Tory govt than anything else; 89% prefer DC as PM. http://bit.ly/1qgIsMv
Plenty of scope for tactical Con voting if the tories can mine that seam of voters back.
"... the underlying problem is not to do with the presence or absence of Western soldiers. It’s to do with the synthetic nature of the Iraqi state. "
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100276894/the-case-for-patriotism-and-for-the-partition-of-iraq/
Zero to one seats looks the most likely.
As Angela Merkel put it: ""The little party always gets smashed!"
Bye, bye, Labour!
On one important point, though, I think he might be wrong. He writes:
the results amount to an effective 3.5 per cent swing from the Lib Dems to the Tories since 2010. This would be enough for the Conservatives to unseat 15 Lib Dem MPs if this were to happen across the board next May.
But one big lesson from this research is not to assume any kind of uniform swing where the Lib Dems are concerned. The swing to the Tories was as high as nine per cent in Newton Abbot, but in the Lib Dem-held seats of Cheadle, Eastleigh and Sutton & Cheam the swing was in the other direction. There was also no straightforward regional pattern. Though swings were generally less favourable to the Tories in urban and suburban seats, in Cornwall they ranged from 2.5 per cent (St Ives) to eight per cent (Truro & Falmouth). The swing to the Conservatives in Wells (three per cent) was less than half than in neighbouring Somerton & Frome (7.5 per cent).
I'm not sure that this is a correct reading of the statistics. Even though it's an heroically large poll (17000 voters in all!), his weighted sample size in any given constituency, once you adjust for Don't Know/Would Not Vote/Won't Say, is around 500. The margin of error on that is something like 4% on a given vote share, so the variations between constituencies which Lord A is finding might be statistical noise.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10911015/Ed-Miliband-is-confused-and-unconvincing-Lord-Mandelson-says.html
2009: 14.6%, 93 seats
2013: 4.8%, 0 seats
The horrific seat loss is partly an artefact of the German PR system with a 5% threshold, but still...
No doubt Markus von Senior was still projecting 40 seats for them in late 2012.
Arf.
If you took the 9-4 on the Tories in Torbay you may well want to back the Lib Dems there at 8-11.
I've gone £50 9-4 Conservative
£90 8-11 Lib Dem
I'm amazed at Shady's new LD price there to be perfectly honest.
TOday's bets:
£50 @ 4-6 Eastleigh (Lib Dems)
£90 @ 8-11 Torbay (Lib Dems)
Is Ed M Labour's David Moyes....
The FDP has been part of more governments in post-war Germany than any other party. It supplied Germany's first president, Theodor Heuss, in 1949, and one of the world's most influential foreign ministers, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, from 1974 until 1992.
But 4.8% was not good enough, they needed 5%.
Though I did waver after the Euro-Elections when I saw how badly the Lib-Dems responded...
The polls also indicate that my old LD 32.5+ seat bet may well be a winner which I didn't have hope for previously tbh.
It's almost impossible for the Libs to lose less than about 40% of their seats (down to say 25 seats).
The interesting question is whether they are at 14% nationally, and get to keep 35 seats.
Or whether they are nearer 10%, when they'll have fewer than 10 seats.
- P. Mandelson, writing in The Times, 2002.
Other than that...
(LD-LAB marginals is the big question now)
Even at polling nationally at 10%, which this Ashcroft polling reflects, the LibDems would likely hold 20+ seats.
Looking at Eastleigh and the effect of the two questions is huge. Wonder what would happen if the MP was named.
If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
- LD2010 voters move to Labour (10%), 9% to Tories, 16% to Ukip, 19% DK
Result: Lib Dems third behind Tories and Ukip
Thinking specifically about your own PARLIAMENTARY constituency at the next General Election and the candidates who are likely to stand FOR ELECTION TO WESTMINSTER there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency?
- LD2010 more likely to stick with the party, only 4% to each of Labour and Tories, 13% to Ukip and 11% DK
And in fact 17% of Labour 2010 voters switch to Lib Dems, against only 3% under the first question.
Result: 12% Lib Dem lead over Tories
The way things are coming together we will have the final judgements on both Louis van Gaal and Ed Miliband at about the same time, with the 2015 GE results known on the 8th May, just 16 days before the final day of the Premier League season.
Burnley
Redcar
Manchester Withington
Brent
Bradford East
Norwich South
The ones that are more interesting are:
Horney & Wood Green, which I think Lynne will hold because (a) they continue to have very good local election performances in the area, and (b) Highgate Conservatives will hold their noses and vote tactically.
Cambridge, where OGH thinks Julian will hang on. I think it's a difficult call because of the large transient (student) population. Certainly, Labour has been in retreat in the constituency. But I'd still call this a Labour gain.
Birmingham Yardley, where I think Labour gains.
Southwalk, where I suspect Simon Hughes clings on barely.
Argyll & Bute, which I'd peg as a Labour gain, but which might be held, and which might go SNP...
Inverness, where I think the SNP gains. But Danny may get Conservative tactical votes, and see the SNP and Labour sharing the rest.
I'd reckon 25-30 seats is the likeliest outcome. Which is - of course - the best result for the a third party, excepting the results of the 13 years from 1997 to 2010.
She just got such a good reputation locally as is coming out in focus groups.
Lets go off Lord A's numbers - not great for Con, not great for LD either... but the methodology will be consistent within his national and local VI polls.
36 -> 29 Con -7
26 -> 8 Lib Dem -18
(Someone correct me if those are wrong)
5.5% swing
He's found 3.5% avg swing in the named places !
Tory Chairman @ToryChairman
Party Chairman @grantshapps tells the BBC: "I kid you not. Labour have spent their so-called bank bonus tax 10 times over". #SameOldLabour
This can't be true,if labour using this tax again on the announcements today,people will see right through it,pathetic if true.
Rationalizing LibDem seats against 6% 8% 10% 12% or 14% is unwise. Since Feb 74 Lib/LibDem seats have never neatly matched national % share.
It's much wiser to look at their seats as hotspots and work from there.
It will be 'taxi time'.
That said, I think the fact that the LibDems have scored 12-14% NEV in each of the national local elections this parliament points to them getting something in that range (rather than 6%) at the General.
Number one rule of political betting: pay more attention to local election results than individual polls.
A 4.5% increase for LD seats compared with non LD seats here might be large enough for them to keep some seats extra but its only 1.5% less than their fall nationally so it wont be far from a UNS result.
A takeover of Doncaster by One Direction singer Louis Tomlinson and former club owner John Ryan has been completed.
A spokesman for Ryan told Press Association Sport that the deal had been completed and would be explained in detail at a press conference in London.
Twenty-two-year-old Tomlinson is a global star as one member of One Direction and is a lifelong fan of his hometown club.
http://news.sky.com/story/1285324/one-directions-louis-in-doncaster-takeover
Who was right and who was wrong !
And most importantly who'll be having baked beans for tea and who will be popping the champers.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1268389/Labour-candidate-performing-Nazi-salute-Cambridge-University-debate.html
I have the vaguest clue of how close the race is in my own constituency and I was actively involved. I would challenge the "man on the street", Lab or Cons or LD to really know what on earth the situation was in theirs to the point whereby they are confident that they can place a cross for another party's candidate with confidence that somehow they are not getting it all wrong.
Plus there is surely a something-not-right feeling about voting, the most precious democratic gift we have, for someone or something you don't believe in.
The "left" is far more malleable I think.
That's an impressive track record.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100276909/theres-no-point-trying-to-fix-ed-miliband-labour-needs-to-work-out-how-it-can-move-on-from-him/
The kippers need something to restart their momentum at the moment. As I said earlier, its all gone a bit quiet kipper side. Confiscating the passports of British fighters in Syria and Iraq???