Meadowcroft crawled back on the gravy train in 2007 of course. His roast spuds were all dry
On 5 October 2007, it was announced that Meadowcroft had joined the Liberal Democrats, citing the party's oppostition to the Iraq war, its rejection of identity cards and its commitment to a united Europe.[5]
Who is likely to fare better in the months leading up to the next election, given their respective current starting points: the Lib Dems or the Conservatives?
I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
MEPs have a €20,000 per month staff allowance. The loss of 10 LD MEPs may have a noticeable effect.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
They won't hold North Norfolk. You heard it here first.
Chortle .... You are Iain Dale and I claim a right of reply on LBC
We shall see. When Norfolk decides, Norfolk decides. And it has decided the Lib Dems are done. I shall be hoovering up the juicy odds accordingly.
You make the classic mistake of looking at the seat in pure political label terms.
North Norfolk will be held because of Norman Lamb as Iain Dale found to his cost, just as many other LibDem seats will be held.
Norfolk may or may not like the yellow peril but they certainly like Stormin Norman just as they like Farron in Westmoreland or Charlie Kennedy in Ross.
But do they like him enough? The Tories just need to get him into the 30s and it's game on. My local nostrils sense a mid thirties polling for the Lamb in Kittens clothing.
Woolie , how could your local knowledge compete with an ARSE.
Who is likely to fare better in the months leading up to the next election, given their respective current starting points: the Lib Dems or the Conservatives?
I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
MEPs have a €20,000 per month staff allowance. The loss of 10 LD MEPs may have a noticeable effect.
Yoiks. With the corresponding increase in UKIP revenues, Farage is going to need a larger freebie office to house the ever expanding 'banks of computers'.
Who is likely to fare better in the months leading up to the next election, given their respective current starting points: the Lib Dems or the Conservatives?
I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
MEPs have a €20,000 per month staff allowance. The loss of 10 LD MEPs may have a noticeable effect.
Who is likely to fare better in the months leading up to the next election, given their respective current starting points: the Lib Dems or the Conservatives? I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
MEPs have a €20,000 per month staff allowance. The loss of 10 LD MEPs may have a noticeable effect.
and the loss of 2,200 (55%) of their cllrs since 2009 reduces their kitty and activists.
Oh, and thanks again to TSE for the Chile tip. I held my nerve for that one rather than cash out at 1-0. Spain were pretty woeful and the potential winnings outweighed the risk of them getting back into a winning position. Made a cool £218 yesterday, so if you're ever down in London, I owe you a drink (non-alcoholic, of course).
Who is likely to fare better in the months leading up to the next election, given their respective current starting points: the Lib Dems or the Conservatives? I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
MEPs have a €20,000 per month staff allowance. The loss of 10 LD MEPs may have a noticeable effect.
and the loss of 2,200 (55%) of their cllrs since 2009 reduces their kitty and activists.
They also have lost the big bucks that the opposition parties get for 'research'.
Hmm. I have vague memories of a coup plot to overthrow Erdogan in 2003. Hundreds have been ordered to be released from jail by a Turkish court: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27925911
I wonder if the moderates and/or Attaturk followers are gaining ground. The bans on Twitter and Youtube failed, the response to the mining disaster was panned, but I think I recall reading Erdogan's still on course for another victory.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
They won't hold North Norfolk. You heard it here first.
Chortle .... You are Iain Dale and I claim a right of reply on LBC
We shall see. When Norfolk decides, Norfolk decides. And it has decided the Lib Dems are done. I shall be hoovering up the juicy odds accordingly.
You make the classic mistake of looking at the seat in pure political label terms.
North Norfolk will be held because of Norman Lamb as Iain Dale found to his cost, just as many other LibDem seats will be held.
Norfolk may or may not like the yellow peril but they certainly like Stormin Norman just as they like Farron in Westmoreland or Charlie Kennedy in Ross.
But do they like him enough? The Tories just need to get him into the 30s and it's game on. My local nostrils sense a mid thirties polling for the Lamb in Kittens clothing.
Woolie , how could your local knowledge compete with an ARSE.
Well, quite. It's not my fault the ageing burghers of Blakeney are looking forward to tucking into some roast sacrificial Lamb in May 2015. I stand ready to accept adulation or opprobrium in appropriate measure.
Who is likely to fare better in the months leading up to the next election, given their respective current starting points: the Lib Dems or the Conservatives?
I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
I'm inclined to think pro rata rises to current polling - so a rise/fall of maybe 3% to the Tories for each LibDem 1%..... Which is why I think the LibDems are in a deep, deep hole.
Who is likely to fare better in the months leading up to the next election, given their respective current starting points: the Lib Dems or the Conservatives? I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
Much more important to LibDem finances will be whether Marshall Wace is making a lot of money this year.
The loss of the worker/activists will hurt more at the GE. On the 2:1 ratio of Eric Pickles, this represents over 4,000 fewer activists at the next GE.
Apparently it was 27 degrees in Perth yesterday. That's Perth, Scotland not Australia.
That's about -2 in celsius. Not bad for the time of year. Is the general assumption that these are terrible polls for the Lib Dems. I can't pretend that I generally enjoy going through all the polling data. On straw that people on ldv have been clinging to is that the polling was done during the Euro elections. Correct.
Apparently it was 27 degrees in Perth yesterday. That's Perth, Scotland not Australia.
That's about -2 in celsius. Not bad for the time of year. Is the general assumption that these are terrible polls for the Lib Dems. I can't pretend that I generally enjoy going through all the polling data. On straw that people on ldv have been clinging to is that the polling was done during the Euro elections. Correct.
I think this Ashcroft poll is quite decent for the Lib Dems tbh...
O/T: Apparently it was 27 degrees in Perth yesterday. That's Perth, Scotland not Australia.
On straw that people on ldv have been clinging to is that the polling was done during the Euro elections. Correct.
Losing 15 seats to the Conservatives is dire. Add in loses to Lab and the Nats and LD losses look to be circa 30. But at present the main players in the LDs seem to be ignoring the forecasts and cling to the hope that it will not happen. Just as they did for the Euro elections.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 : Orkney & Shetland .. Ross Skye .. Westmoreland .. Leeds NW .. Sheffield Hallam
They won't hold North Norfolk. You heard it here first.
Chortle .... You are Iain Dale and I claim a right of reply on LBC
We shall see. When Norfolk decides, Norfolk decides. And it has decided the Lib Dems are done. I shall be hoovering up the juicy odds accordingly.
You make the classic mistake of looking at the seat in pure political label terms.
North Norfolk will be held because of Norman Lamb as Iain Dale found to his cost, just as many other LibDem seats will be held.
Norfolk may or may not like the yellow peril but they certainly like Stormin Norman just as they like Farron in Westmoreland or Charlie Kennedy in Ross.
But do they like him enough? The Tories just need to get him into the 30s and it's game on. My local nostrils sense a mid thirties polling for the Lamb in Kittens clothing.
Woolie , how could your local knowledge compete with an ARSE.
Well, quite. It's not my fault the ageing burghers of Blakeney are looking forward to tucking into some roast sacrificial Lamb in May 2015. I stand ready to accept adulation or opprobrium in appropriate measure.
That does not look plausible but please write a longer article explaining your rationale and submit to OGH.
Apparently it was 27 degrees in Perth yesterday. That's Perth, Scotland not Australia.
That's about -2 in celsius. Not bad for the time of year. Is the general assumption that these are terrible polls for the Lib Dems. I can't pretend that I generally enjoy going through all the polling data. On straw that people on ldv have been clinging to is that the polling was done during the Euro elections. Correct.
I think this Ashcroft poll is quite decent for the Lib Dems tbh...
Is this from the school of "merely a flesh wound" as limbs are lost?
Apparently it was 27 degrees in Perth yesterday. That's Perth, Scotland not Australia.
That's about -2 in celsius. Not bad for the time of year. Is the general assumption that these are terrible polls for the Lib Dems. I can't pretend that I generally enjoy going through all the polling data. On straw that people on ldv have been clinging to is that the polling was done during the Euro elections. Correct.
I think this Ashcroft poll is quite decent for the Lib Dems tbh...
Is this from the school of "merely a flesh wound" as limbs are lost?
No, this is from the perspective of someone who was wondering if Yeovil was going to be a coin toss off the back of this poll. The Lib Dem shifts when people are asked to think about their own seat is quite remarkable.
Apparently it was 27 degrees in Perth yesterday. That's Perth, Scotland not Australia.
That's about -2 in celsius. Not bad for the time of year. Is the general assumption that these are terrible polls for the Lib Dems. I can't pretend that I generally enjoy going through all the polling data. On straw that people on ldv have been clinging to is that the polling was done during the Euro elections. Correct.
I think this Ashcroft poll is quite decent for the Lib Dems tbh...
Is this from the school of "merely a flesh wound" as limbs are lost?
No, this is from the perspective of someone who was wondering if Yeovil was going to be a coin toss off the back of this poll. The Lib Dem shifts when people are asked to think about their own seat is quite remarkable.
Yeovil is the LDs 7th safest seat with a 13,000 majority!
But at present the main players in the LDs seem to be ignoring the forecasts and cling to the hope that it will not happen. Just as they did for the Euro elections.
I dont think that's the case - it's obvious that large losses are on the cards. They're just making the calculation that what they are doing is the best way of minimising those losses.
Whilst not a Miliband fan, I must confess I find myself warming to his surreal approach to politics.
Doing something, saying he was right to do it, then apologising and saying he was right to do that too was hard to top, but a £5.1bn pledge to provide every Briton with an owl might just do it.
Next up, an extra 27 minutes a day for the self-employed.
Apparently it was 27 degrees in Perth yesterday. That's Perth, Scotland not Australia.
That's about -2 in celsius. Not bad for the time of year. Is the general assumption that these are terrible polls for the Lib Dems. I can't pretend that I generally enjoy going through all the polling data. On straw that people on ldv have been clinging to is that the polling was done during the Euro elections. Correct.
I think this Ashcroft poll is quite decent for the Lib Dems tbh...
Is this from the school of "merely a flesh wound" as limbs are lost?
No, this is from the perspective of someone who was wondering if Yeovil was going to be a coin toss off the back of this poll. The Lib Dem shifts when people are asked to think about their own seat is quite remarkable.
Yeovil is the LDs 7th safest seat with a 13,000 majority!
My expectations for the Lib Dems were 'low'. They have raised a smidgen.
It's odd politics, and even odder timing, but the substance of Ed Miliband's welfare announcements today looks quite good to me, at least in part.
Assuming that Labour are correct that it wouldn't cost any more overall, increasing the higher JSA rate from £72 to £100 a week, but increasing the number of years you need to have been paying NI to be eligible from two to five years, is not a bad policy. (I don't think it's a new announcement, though - didn't he announce exactly the same policy a year ago?).
I'm less sure about the changes for 18-21 year olds: the headlines are along the lines of 'Miliband to cut youth benefits', and the detail looks flaky. Still, it is not without merit.
Whether anyone is listening is another matter. More importantly, the speech flatly contradicts what he has said in the past - as Dan Hodges points out, the change for 18-21 year olds was flatly denied by Rachel Reeves last November.
Overall, it's a very confused set of messages, which I think will alienate some and won't convince those who in principle would agree with what he's trying to do.
Iraq "... the underlying problem is not to do with the presence or absence of Western soldiers. It’s to do with the synthetic nature of the Iraqi state. "
This is truly abysmal USA/KSA cheerleading from Hannan, and I suspect he knows it, or he would have written more than a couple of sentences in its support. Does anyone think that if the only support for Assad and the state of Syria came from his proposed Alawite slither that he would not only still be in place, but be winning the war? They are amongst the most patriotic people on earth, and contrary to Hannan's twaddle, a superb model of how sunnis, shia and Christians can live in harmony, when they are left alone to do so rather than flooded with foreign insurgents.
I wonder what Hannan's approach to the Ukraine situation is? Presumably for the East to be ceded to Russia?
O/T So Labour would replace out of work benefits with a training allowance that is means tested on parental income... shame tim isn't here to comment on the impact on effective marginal tax rates for the parents...
Will be interesting to see if it's only tested on income and not assets in the same way student grants are... Have 'retired' whilst the kids are at Uni and they're getting £7k between them despite the family finances being very healthy
Is the owl thing Labour policy - or just an aspiration?
And what if I want a falcon instead?
Wondering what it COULD have been instead. A Bowl for everyone? A Cowl - going for the Monk vote? A slightly lower grade avian incentive - a Fowl? Jowls? (Has anyone asked Tessa??) Or to beat the Germans at Pool Wars - a Towel? We need to know....
Or maybe Labour has just given up? Miliband is screwed, so they are 'aving a larf....
The interesting (and worrying to Labour) facts are that UKIP support has increased by much more (usually) than Conservative reduction.
We seem to have:
Tory --> UKIP (6% of voters) - or 20% of Tory Voters Lib Dem --> Labour (12% of voters) - 30% of Lib Dem voters Lib Dem --> Others (5% of voters) - 14% of Lib Dem voters Labour --> UKIP (10% of voters) - but this is a massive percentage of Labour voters
Is the owl thing Labour policy - or just an aspiration?
And what if I want a falcon instead?
Wondering what it COULD have been instead. A Bowl for everyone? A Cowl - going for the Monk vote? A slightly lower grade avian incentive - a Fowl? Jowls? (Has anyone asked Tessa??) Or to beat the Germans at Pool Wars - a Towel? We need to know....
Or maybe Labour has just given up? Miliband is screwed, so they are 'aving a larf....
Is the owl means tested? Can you have it as well as losing your benefits?
Typical Labour policy. Flashy headlines, no practical details.
Iraq "... the underlying problem is not to do with the presence or absence of Western soldiers. It’s to do with the synthetic nature of the Iraqi state. "
This is truly abysmal USA/KSA cheerleading from Hannan, and I suspect he knows it, or he would have written more than a couple of sentences in its support. Does anyone think that if the only support for Assad and the state of Syria came from his proposed Alawite slither that he would not only still be in place, but be winning the war? They are amongst the most patriotic people on earth, and contrary to Hannan's twaddle, a superb model of how sunnis, shia and Christians can live in harmony, when they are left alone to do so rather than flooded with foreign insurgents.
I wonder what Hannan's approach to the Ukraine situation is? Presumably for the East to be ceded to Russia?
That, surely, would be up to the people who live in those eastern Oblasts.
Mr. Mark, the eurozone to be moved to metric time, UK and other non-eurozone nations to stick with the current clock.
Using quantum mechanics, Miliband will simultaneously use the bank bonus tax to pay for many separate things when, using normal mathematics, it would only be able to pay for one. He's also going to redesign the Palace of Westminster to function using hyperbolic geometry.
How does this compare with the other parties? (honest question)
SNP were 25K about a year and a bit ago and probably rather more now thanks to Messrs Cameron and Osborne. This seems to be about twice as much as what passed for figures from Labour in Scotland (whether those included union members I don't know but their reliability is put in question by the Falkirk scandal). Comparables were 8K for Tories and 5K for LDs.
Labour Press Team @labourpress · 6 mins For those asking, the owl tweet was a result of our twitter account being hacked. Hopefully we're out of the woods now.
Labour Press Team @labourpress · 6 mins For those asking, the owl tweet was a result of our twitter account being hacked. Hopefully we're out of the woods now.
Iraq "... the underlying problem is not to do with the presence or absence of Western soldiers. It’s to do with the synthetic nature of the Iraqi state. "
This is truly abysmal USA/KSA cheerleading from Hannan, and I suspect he knows it, or he would have written more than a couple of sentences in its support. Does anyone think that if the only support for Assad and the state of Syria came from his proposed Alawite slither that he would not only still be in place, but be winning the war? They are amongst the most patriotic people on earth, and contrary to Hannan's twaddle, a superb model of how sunnis, shia and Christians can live in harmony, when they are left alone to do so rather than flooded with foreign insurgents.
I wonder what Hannan's approach to the Ukraine situation is? Presumably for the East to be ceded to Russia?
Syria is a superb example of how Sunnis, Shias and Christians can live in harmony?!? They are in the middle of a raging civil war with huge divisions on religious grounds. Maybe if we could have propped up the FSA and moderates something would have been achievable, but they've now been decimated. Partially because Assad did his best to concentrate his forces attacking the FSA so that the opposition became dominated by the Islamist nutters, thus allowing his regime to be seen as the lesser of two evils. Middle Eastern dictators like Assad and Hussein were the Middle Eastern equivalents of Tito, strong men that force dissent underground, but which comes bubbling to the surface as soon as their rule is challenged.
As for Ukraine, the East is majority Ukrainian, regardless of Russian propaganda. Opinion polls conducted before the invasion show the East is strongly in favour of staying with Ukraine.
Labour Press Team @labourpress · 6 mins For those asking, the owl tweet was a result of our twitter account being hacked. Hopefully we're out of the woods now.
Iraq "... the underlying problem is not to do with the presence or absence of Western soldiers. It’s to do with the synthetic nature of the Iraqi state. "
This is truly abysmal USA/KSA cheerleading from Hannan, and I suspect he knows it, or he would have written more than a couple of sentences in its support. Does anyone think that if the only support for Assad and the state of Syria came from his proposed Alawite slither that he would not only still be in place, but be winning the war? They are amongst the most patriotic people on earth, and contrary to Hannan's twaddle, a superb model of how sunnis, shia and Christians can live in harmony, when they are left alone to do so rather than flooded with foreign insurgents.
I wonder what Hannan's approach to the Ukraine situation is? Presumably for the East to be ceded to Russia?
You do realise that the "Alawite slither" is where most of the people are in Syria.
The country east of the Euphrates is not under Assad's control, the Alawite slither as you put it contains Damascus, Homs and is by far the most important part of the country economically I'd wager.
Syria is hardly "in harmony" at the moment either...
I'm here for my owl. Where can I collect it? Or will it be posted? Presumably, the follow up will be assisted places at Hogwarts for all. I can't wait.
Is the owl thing Labour policy - or just an aspiration?
And what if I want a falcon instead?
Wondering what it COULD have been instead. A Bowl for everyone? A Cowl - going for the Monk vote? A slightly lower grade avian incentive - a Fowl? Jowls? (Has anyone asked Tessa??) Or to beat the Germans at Pool Wars - a Towel? We need to know....
Or maybe Labour has just given up? Miliband is screwed, so they are 'aving a larf....
Sorry Mark, a falcon is a bird of the ruling classes, so not welcome in the new bird socialist Britain.
"Does anyone think that if the only support for Assad and the state of Syria came from his proposed Alawite slither that he would not only still be in place, but be winning the war?"
The answer to this question is emphatically "Yes"...
Portsmouth South Mr Hancock appears to have a financial incentive to stand again in 2015.
"... MPs have the right to one month’s pay for every year they were an MP, up to a maximum of six months. As Hancock was elected in 1997 he would be entitled to the full £33,530. The claim can be made by MPs who re-stand for their seat but are not elected to it"
Mr. Carnyx, one would guess the referendum is driving numbers up.
Incidentally, is the provision of owls devolved, or would Scots also be able to benefit from a free owl if Miliband became PM?
In unrelated news, how do you think the vote will go?
Good afternoon!
Hmm ... if it were just the reffo per se causing a general interest in politics then you would expect Tory numbers to be going up - and Labour and LD too - all pro rata. So there is something more specific happening, traditionally ascribed to Mr Cameron coming to do a seagull impersonation.
But those are old figures anyway. I seem to recall Mrs Fitalass commenting that increased Tory activity had not translated fully into increased party membership, but I may be misremembering her (apologies if so). And Labour have deliberately suppressed any membership info for some time now (can't imagine why).
Strigiform distribution is already devolved under Mr Lochhead MSP, though whether it is Scottish Natural Heritage or the Dept of Ag, Fish and RD I couldn't say offhand. Under the prudent fiscal policy of the SNP, it is left to the owls to supply and breed themselves as required, with only a little support ...
The vote? Completely open, and if I had to use even numbers I'd say closer to 1:1 than 1:2 or 2:1 (old style) (which is nice as I piled in the not very much that my Nonconformist at heart partner would let me at 5/1). Partly because of some straws in the wind, and partly because of the underlying ratchet effect involved in deciding to vote Yes or no.
Labour Press Team @labourpress · 6 mins For those asking, the owl tweet was a result of our twitter account being hacked. Hopefully we're out of the woods now.
Ahhh yes, the old 'we was hacked' story..
As in 'a load of old bollocks'.
Really, do these clowns seriously believe that anyone falls for that nonsense?
Twitter should call their bluff, and prove otherwise.
As someone who is from Eastleigh I have always found it surprising when people have said on here that Eastleigh is a key UKIP target. UKIP will never win Eastleigh, Eastleigh is LIb Dem heaven. If the Lib Dems lose Eastleigh will have no MPs.
Just a quick question - how come they are so far behind on the first question ?
I have no idea, Eastleigh is just a bit weird, just look at the make up of the Council. If you drove round the areas in Eastleigh Borough you would think that Eastleigh would have a decent representation of tories on the council, but it doesn't. I dont understand it, its just the way it is.
Essentially Eastleigh has become a payroll for LD people who derive income from cllr payments. The Borough Leader also has income as a county cllr and his household income from the councils is greater than that for an MP. These cllrs are reliant upon this money so they campaign continually to get re-elected and to keep out the other parties. If the allowances were cut back the party would die there as well. The concept of volunteer unpaid cllrs would be the death knell of Eastleigh LDs.
.....
"People sometimes think that the SDP was founded on some issue of principle: opposition to nationalisation, or to unilateral nuclear disarmament or some such. In fact, it was created because the Labour Party wanted to make incumbent MPs subject to reselection by party members.
Suddenly, the high-minded Liberals were overwhelmed by a horde of petty, calculating careerists. The remaining heirs of the Whig tradition broke away under Michael Meadowcroft, and still hold several council seats under their old name, the Liberal Party, mainly in Merseyside. The rest of the party became what it is today: a tricksy, self-righteous alliance of convenience, prepared to say whatever local people want to hear."
Yes I think you are right. The libdems are not Liberals. They have been sustained in a false position since 1997 when Ashdown cut a deal with Blair and Labour to effectively jointly campaign against the tories(where they gained 28 seats on top of 18). Blair then stitched them up over PR. Come 2015 vast swathes of the country (hyperbole alert) will be persuaded to vote for a broadly moderate but broadly right wing economically successful and sound Conservative party promising a referendum on the EU. There is no reason why the libdems should not revert to 18 seats again... their time in government seems to have been pretty pointless.
Mr. Mark, the eurozone to be moved to metric time, UK and other non-eurozone nations to stick with the current clock.
Using quantum mechanics, Miliband will simultaneously use the bank bonus tax to pay for many separate things when, using normal mathematics, it would only be able to pay for one. He's also going to redesign the Palace of Westminster to function using hyperbolic geometry.
Non-Euclidean geometry? Well that's something I never thought I'd hear from you, Mr. Dancer. It has been mentioned on here a couple of times over the past few months, could it be that this site has educational depths that are normally hidden. Perhaps your octo-lemurs are feeding you stuff, or maybe the mathematics education in Yorkshire is far more advanced than anyone outside knows. You did psychology (or something similar) at Uni didn't you?
Mr. Llama, no, I recall reading lines about it in 8-Bit Theater, I'm afraid.
I did indeed do psychology at university. There was a bit of maths, but mostly statistical stuff (shockingly, I was one of the more informed students, as I have a [rather poor] A-level in maths).
Labour Press Team @labourpress · 6 mins For those asking, the owl tweet was a result of our twitter account being hacked. Hopefully we're out of the woods now.
Ahhh yes, the old 'we was hacked' story..
As in 'a load of old bollocks'.
Really, do these clowns seriously believe that anyone falls for that nonsense?
Twitter should call their bluff, and prove otherwise.
In a quick post below I made the point about the LDs gaining 28 seats in 1997 - on a further look, they did this with a swing of 1% against them. And they have the nerve to complain about FPTP. They polled 17.8% in 1992 and 16.8% in 1997. The LDs did so well because they took advantage of a below the counter electoral pact with Labour. Now in govt for 4 years we see they spend most of their time trying to rubbish the tories and claim anythjing thats good for them. Nope - there is no point to the Libdems.
Who is likely to fare better in the months leading up to the next election, given their respective current starting points: the Lib Dems or the Conservatives? I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
Much more important to LibDem finances will be whether Marshall Wace is making a lot of money this year.
The loss of the worker/activists will hurt more at the GE. On the 2:1 ratio of Eric Pickles, this represents over 4,000 fewer activists at the next GE.
Yes, which is why I tabulated where the LibDems were strong locally.
I think the Libs end up on 25-35, which is a pretty good result for them - one only bettered by the 13 years between 1997 and 2010
Comments
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Meadowcroft
http://www.rebeccataylor.eu/pay-and-expenses-statement/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27925911
I wonder if the moderates and/or Attaturk followers are gaining ground. The bans on Twitter and Youtube failed, the response to the mining disaster was panned, but I think I recall reading Erdogan's still on course for another victory.
I stand ready to accept adulation or opprobrium in appropriate measure.
http://www.newstatesman.com/media-mole/2014/06/labour-accidentally-tweets-promise-give-everyone-owl
The tweet was deleted, presumably because of the owls of protest.
Ed Miliband says his party must "defy historical odds" to win the next election":
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10911836/Ed-Miliband-admits-I-shouldnt-win-the-election.html
@Mr_Eugenides: So London Labour have U-turned on their owl pledge. Only a Yes vote in September can guarantee every Scot their own owl. IT’S OOR OWL
@stackee: Tomorrow's Labour press release: "Ed was right to unveil a policy cutting benefits for the young and he was right to apologise for it."
What 2-1 against... ?!
Doing something, saying he was right to do it, then apologising and saying he was right to do that too was hard to top, but a £5.1bn pledge to provide every Briton with an owl might just do it.
Next up, an extra 27 minutes a day for the self-employed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/saudiarabia/10911281/Iraq-crisis-Britain-and-US-must-not-meddle-in-Iraq-warns-Saudi-Arabia.html
Assuming that Labour are correct that it wouldn't cost any more overall, increasing the higher JSA rate from £72 to £100 a week, but increasing the number of years you need to have been paying NI to be eligible from two to five years, is not a bad policy. (I don't think it's a new announcement, though - didn't he announce exactly the same policy a year ago?).
I'm less sure about the changes for 18-21 year olds: the headlines are along the lines of 'Miliband to cut youth benefits', and the detail looks flaky. Still, it is not without merit.
Whether anyone is listening is another matter. More importantly, the speech flatly contradicts what he has said in the past - as Dan Hodges points out, the change for 18-21 year olds was flatly denied by Rachel Reeves last November.
Overall, it's a very confused set of messages, which I think will alienate some and won't convince those who in principle would agree with what he's trying to do.
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_is_delighted_to_announce_yet_another_record_membership_figure
I wonder what Hannan's approach to the Ukraine situation is? Presumably for the East to be ceded to Russia?
Will be interesting to see if it's only tested on income and not assets in the same way student grants are... Have 'retired' whilst the kids are at Uni and they're getting £7k between them despite the family finances being very healthy
And what if I want a falcon instead?
Wondering what it COULD have been instead. A Bowl for everyone? A Cowl - going for the Monk vote? A slightly lower grade avian incentive - a Fowl? Jowls? (Has anyone asked Tessa??) Or to beat the Germans at Pool Wars - a Towel? We need to know....
Or maybe Labour has just given up? Miliband is screwed, so they are 'aving a larf....
Given the "in your constituency" effect these polls seem to show and the fact that it is an urban seat, I've taken a wodge of the 8-11 on offer.
UKIP are 16-1 if you really must cover, Labour correctly 100 - should be longer..
We seem to have:
Tory --> UKIP (6% of voters) - or 20% of Tory Voters
Lib Dem --> Labour (12% of voters) - 30% of Lib Dem voters
Lib Dem --> Others (5% of voters) - 14% of Lib Dem voters
Labour --> UKIP (10% of voters) - but this is a massive percentage of Labour voters
Typical Labour policy. Flashy headlines, no practical details.
Using quantum mechanics, Miliband will simultaneously use the bank bonus tax to pay for many separate things when, using normal mathematics, it would only be able to pay for one. He's also going to redesign the Palace of Westminster to function using hyperbolic geometry.
We did not really announce a means tested tax on young people.
Oh, wait...
http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-politics/7110-snp-get-membership-boost-from-cameron-visit-
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=snp+membership+figures+2013
Incidentally, is the provision of owls devolved, or would Scots also be able to benefit from a free owl if Miliband became PM?
In unrelated news, how do you think the vote will go?
For those asking, the owl tweet was a result of our twitter account being hacked. Hopefully we're out of the woods now.
Ahhh yes, the old 'we was hacked' story..
http://www.libdems.org.uk/lib_dem_membership_surge_continues
Con 134,000
http://www.conservativehome.com//thetorydiary/2013/09/exclusive-cchq-declares-conservative-party-membership-to-be-134000.html
As for Ukraine, the East is majority Ukrainian, regardless of Russian propaganda. Opinion polls conducted before the invasion show the East is strongly in favour of staying with Ukraine.
https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTbDrarGIcqSZ_u2fz34yXtTddikFjk0ObTt6KRwEiNeimvNrl0Cg Massive population density near the Med... like Libya for example.
And another slither down the Euphrates... Alot of the land in Syria is just desert.
Also by examining http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Syrian_civil_war.png we can see ISIS and Assad's forces don't really interact too much except near Aleppo.
The country east of the Euphrates is not under Assad's control, the Alawite slither as you put it contains Damascus, Homs and is by far the most important part of the country economically I'd wager.
Syria is hardly "in harmony" at the moment either...
Guido Fawkes@GuidoFawkes·7 mins
For more information about the Labour owl policy, contact their press office on 28 28 20
It's a One Owl Nation.
The rebels fighting Assad are shit out of luck though, but they are already.
The answer to this question is emphatically "Yes"...
Mr Hancock appears to have a financial incentive to stand again in 2015.
"... MPs have the right to one month’s pay for every year they were an MP, up to a maximum of six months. As Hancock was elected in 1997 he would be entitled to the full £33,530. The claim can be made by MPs who re-stand for their seat but are not elected to it"
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/06/19/Sleazy-Lib-Dem-In-Line-For-Publicly-Funded-Payoff
Until they bump into a off-shore wind turbine.
'they took some honey and plenty of money'
Ahaha...The pussy cat must be a banker, they'll be taxing that ten times over...
Hmm ... if it were just the reffo per se causing a general interest in politics then you would expect Tory numbers to be going up - and Labour and LD too - all pro rata. So there is something more specific happening, traditionally ascribed to Mr Cameron coming to do a seagull impersonation.
But those are old figures anyway. I seem to recall Mrs Fitalass commenting that increased Tory activity had not translated fully into increased party membership, but I may be misremembering her (apologies if so). And Labour have deliberately suppressed any membership info for some time now (can't imagine why).
Strigiform distribution is already devolved under Mr Lochhead MSP, though whether it is Scottish Natural Heritage or the Dept of Ag, Fish and RD I couldn't say offhand. Under the prudent fiscal policy of the SNP, it is left to the owls to supply and breed themselves as required, with only a little support ...
The vote? Completely open, and if I had to use even numbers I'd say closer to 1:1 than 1:2 or 2:1 (old style) (which is nice as I piled in the not very much that my Nonconformist at heart partner would let me at 5/1). Partly because of some straws in the wind, and partly because of the underlying ratchet effect involved in deciding to vote Yes or no.
@WikiGuido: Strong BBC headline: http://t.co/EIi3SIdKKJ
For Many years the freephone number for Guardian Direct (Logo an owl) was 0800 28 28 20
Not a falcon, a red kite.(obviously)
But that's only if we can get the grouse moor owners to stop poisoning them.
Mr. Carnyx, hmm. Interesting comments. I imagine I'll stay up for the results.
Really, do these clowns seriously believe that anyone falls for that nonsense?
Twitter should call their bluff, and prove otherwise.
I hear there's a De-Owl Max referendum in the pipeline though.
We have a red kite trade agreement with our celtic brothers, and are using them to infiltrate the more remote parts of England as well.
I did indeed do psychology at university. There was a bit of maths, but mostly statistical stuff (shockingly, I was one of the more informed students, as I have a [rather poor] A-level in maths).
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/pickles-urges-councillors-ignore-stalinist-guidelines-which-appear-ban-them-talking-directly-press
Nope - there is no point to the Libdems.
I think the Libs end up on 25-35, which is a pretty good result for them - one only bettered by the 13 years between 1997 and 2010