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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s poll of the CON-LD marginals – the headline

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Dr. Prasannan, Rome was inherently stronger than Carthage because of its superior political structure. If Caesar had never been born the republic/empire would have continued for a long time anyway.

    It's true Caesar's name found its way into various languages. But then, Caesar wrote his own history, and it was in Augustus' interest to make his uncle appear as splendid as possible.

    Scipio Africanus, Camillus, Aurelian, all have better claims to greatness.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jim, Caesar had an unfair advantage. Hannibal could not notice somebody more capable than himself because there wasn't anyone.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Llama, whereas the sign of true victory is when your own side stab you several dozen times?

    Mr Dancer, is it not true that the Roman civilisation long outlived Caesar, and that his name (with spelling variations) even found its way into modern German and Russian?
    Yes, Tsar, Kaiser and even Shah are apparently corruptions of Caesar.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jim, to be fair Kaiser is the same (from Latin) pronunciation. Not heard of Shah before, but unusual derivations do occur. Apparently Blighty is originally derived from Arabic, and admiral comes from emir.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ivory Coast doing well. 50 minutes and no goals.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Jim, Caesar had an unfair advantage. Hannibal could not notice somebody more capable than himself because there wasn't anyone.

    It wouldn't have been immediately obvious that Octavian was talented and his main talent was in employing Agrippa. I'm not a huge fan of Caesar because he buggered things up quite often and wasn't particularly tactically innovative. His main skill was in political rather than military strategy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited June 2014
    Jim, I would think the correct Persian derivation is Ghaysar (also Qaysar in Urdu).

    Shah comes from another root.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Jim, to be fair Kaiser is the same (from Latin) pronunciation. Not heard of Shah before, but unusual derivations do occur. Apparently Blighty is originally derived from Arabic, and admiral comes from emir.

    Linguistic etymology is fantastic
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jim, I think that's a sound analysis. Read Theodore Dodge's books? [Probably mentioned this umpteen times, but if you seek them out try and make sure you don't end up with an abridged version, which they seem to have started releasing].
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Jim, I would think the correct Persian derivation is Ghaysar (also Qaysar in Urdu).

    Shah comes from another root.

    Probably, but it was on a documentary I saw about Caesar the other day so thought I'd mention it
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jim, I sometimes find interesting snippets researching (no, really) for my books. Did you know bats used to be called flittermice, and in most languages have a mouse-related name?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Llama, what is the sixth dimension?

    Staggeringly, I learnt about the fourth and fifth (time and space) from a Sonic the Hedgehog book, when I was about 7. I also learnt (same series, different book) about transmogrification.

    Oh, gosh. This really isn't the place for it as there is not the time nor space to discuss a multidimensional view of the world as expressed in a mathematics. If you really want to start to explore the wonderful world of multi-dimensional mathematics then an author like Ian Stewart is your man (he is very good at taking complex mathematical ideas and explaining them in the terms a layman can, with a bit of effort, cope with. Actually looking at my maths shelves may be Ivar's Peterson's "The Mathematical Tourist" might do you best as a primer. * A quick check to conform memory * Yes Peterson does have a whole chapter (number 4) to take the reader by the hand a guide him or her through the process of thinking from two to multiple dimensions (including a diagram of the internals of a hypersphere, as best they can represented in print). The book is a bit old now (1988) so I don't know if it is still in print.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Colombia seem to be losing the plot a bit, Ivory Coast starting to look like favourites.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Llama, alas, I just don't have the time for such a diversion. Trying to write a novel, a comedy and two short stories (with two more on waiting lists for anthologies). Plus, when I finish my current book I want to try and make some progress with Shakespeare.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121

    Mr. Jim, to be fair Kaiser is the same (from Latin) pronunciation. Not heard of Shah before, but unusual derivations do occur. Apparently Blighty is originally derived from Arabic, and admiral comes from emir.

    Blighty comes from Urdu "vilayati", Mr. Dancer
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Points on the Con?LD marginals poll.
    1.The swing LD to CON across the 17 seats was at 3.5% very close to the national swing on the of 4% on last national Ashcroft poll.

    2.Applying a 4% LD to Con swing to the 2010 results in the 17 seats would produce all LD losses.So the marginals poll is better than that for the LD' with 3 seats retained

    3.Whilst UNS will not pick up variation in results by seats it does I believe work on an overall basis work on average overall basis in terms of seat numbers.

    4.For forecasts of GE results in 2015 the key issues are how much of the UKIP vote goes back to the Tories and how much will the LD,s add over the next year.If both increase then a 4% wing from LD to CON may be GE swing as well.

    5.The likelihood is that the Lib Dems will do slightly worse in terms of seats than UNS becosse of retiring MP,s and University seat backlashes in seats above the 4% swing level.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    edited June 2014

    Mr. Jim, to be fair Kaiser is the same (from Latin) pronunciation. Not heard of Shah before, but unusual derivations do occur. Apparently Blighty is originally derived from Arabic, and admiral comes from emir.

    Blighty comes from an Urdu word vilayati meaning foreign or British

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blighty

    I see Sunil has beaten me to it

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Pubgoer, Dr. Prasannan, ah, I'd heard it was Arabic. I do apologise to India.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Jim, I sometimes find interesting snippets researching (no, really) for my books. Did you know bats used to be called flittermice, and in most languages have a mouse-related name?

    Indeed hence the name of the Strauss operetta Der Fledermaus
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Bah, everyone knows Caesar's opponents knew they had to stab in him in the back (and front) because they knew they could never defeat him on the battlefield.

    They knew Caesar wouldn't lead them to an epochal defeat like Zama and make it him easier to depose.

    Hannibal was so inept, they came up the phrase Carthaginian Peace to describe his rubbishness

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthaginian_peace
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    F1: plans to axe one practice on Fridays have been abandoned:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27928788

    It was meant to be cost-saving, but some feared it would actually harm small teams, who can shove in a pay driver in P1 without losing too much and gaining some cash.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, Dyrrachium springs to mind. Caesar managed to lead veterans in a failed attack on freshly raised legions.

    Hannibal marauded around Italy in a decade of undefeated menace. Those who managed to equal (and, once, best) him were of the highest order: Marcellus, Nero, Scipio Africanus. Who did Caesar defeat? A Gallic barbarian and an old man so predictable Caesar knew to throw out a fourth line to see off the inevitable cavalry charge (and this *after* Caesar had managed to lose at Dyrrachium).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Mr. Pubgoer, Dr. Prasannan, ah, I'd heard it was Arabic. I do apologise to India.

    Well, there's 'bint' - from service in Egypt I assume. I thought it was only army slang, so was surprised when I heard a West Midlands teenager use the word ca. 1974 ... though I would not risk using it today lest it be misunderstood. As well as more learned words like algebra, alcohol ...

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Bah, everyone knows Caesar's opponents knew they had to stab in him in the back (and front) because they knew they could never defeat him on the battlefield.

    They knew Caesar wouldn't lead them to an epochal defeat like Zama and make it him easier to depose.

    Hannibal was so inept, they came up the phrase Carthaginian Peace to describe his rubbishness

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthaginian_peace

    Caesar wasn't brilliant though, mostly he won through luck or sheer brute determination. Was pretty orthodox tactically. Plus he was monumentally vain, hence he used everything to disguise his baldness.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Eagles, Dyrrachium springs to mind. Caesar managed to lead veterans in a failed attack on freshly raised legions.

    Hannibal marauded around Italy in a decade of undefeated menace. Those who managed to equal (and, once, best) him were of the highest order: Marcellus, Nero, Scipio Africanus. Who did Caesar defeat? A Gallic barbarian and an old man so predictable Caesar knew to throw out a fourth line to see off the inevitable cavalry charge (and this *after* Caesar had managed to lose at Dyrrachium).

    A minor setback, Caesar may have lost the battle but he won the war, tell me how did the Second Punic War turn out?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    To return to the major news of the day: it's half six nearly, and I still don't have my bloody owl. What's Miliband playing at?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Famous last words re. Ivory Coast.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited June 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "1632 Isis has seized a chemical weapons facility built by Saddam Hussein which contains a stockpile of old weapons, State Department officials have told the Wall Street Journal"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10910868/Iraq-crisis-Obama-may-launch-air-strikes-without-Congress-amid-calls-for-Maliki-to-go-live.html

    Is this the WMD Saddam didn't have and couldn't be found when we invaded?!?
    It looks very much that the US military knew of this cache of chemical weapons and where it was stored. If they were so worried about this stuff ( a form of Sarin gas I believe) why the hell didn't they destroy the stuff when they had the chance?

    The more one scrutinises US mideast policy the more one want's to throw up!
    Another good reason for UK to stay with the EU rather than becoming involved with some mid-Atlantic grouping, governed by the US!
    I don't think one is obliged to ally oneself with anyone.

    Switzerland and Norway seem to have done OK with policies of studied neutrality.
    Norway got invaded by the Nazis did they not?

    I regard the policy of neutrality by countries like Norway, Switzerland and Ireland at times in the past to be one of rank selfishness. All it takes for evil to prosper is for good men to do nothing.
    Presumably, the Germans and the Italians and the Japanese and the Finns - all of whom have been essentially neutral since WW2 - are equally guilty.

    Remind me: did our intervention in Iraq help make the locals better or worse off?
    Worse off. Remind me: is it logically sensible to base our entire foreign policy on the lessons drawn from one situation?

    It's like someone goes for runs on a regular basis, but once they tripped and hurt themselves, so they decide going for runs is a bad idea to do any more. Interventions in WW2, Malaya, Korea, Bosnia, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Libya, even Afghanistan, all improved the situation for the locals.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jim, Caesar was monumentally fortunate, as was Alexander. Determination's a good asset, though. and you're quite right about him being vain. Some say he invented the combover.

    Mr. Eagles, it left Hannibal as leader of Carthage. Caesar's civil war (after harming his own side a lot) left him dead.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2014
    BBC breaking headline on homepage

    New disability benefit 'failing'
    The new disability benefit is helping fewer people get jobs, while its rising cost is one of the largest financial risks facing the UK, an internal government document says.


    In the write up...

    The new disability benefit is helping fewer people get jobs, while its rising cost is a big financial risk for the UK, an internal government memo says.

    The memo, obtained by the BBC, says the Department for Work and Pensions is struggling to deliver employment support allowance (ESA).

    ESA was introduced in 2008 to replace incapacity benefit.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27927842
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    BBC breaking headline on homepage

    New disability benefit 'failing'
    The new disability benefit is helping fewer people get jobs, while its rising cost is one of the largest financial risks facing the UK, an internal government document says.


    In the write up...

    The new disability benefit is helping fewer people get jobs, while its rising cost is a big financial risk for the UK, an internal government memo says.

    The memo, obtained by the BBC, says the Department for Work and Pensions is struggling to deliver employment support allowance (ESA).

    ESA was introduced in 2008 to replace incapacity benefit.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27927842

    Remind me who was in charge in 2008?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited June 2014
    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    When is the next JackW ARSE projection? I thought it was Thurs 9am?

    He shat himself this morning
    Please, please , please will someone tell me when JackW's forecast was last posted.

    I have searched both threads today in full and can't find it. I'm quite busy and don't have hours to spend more time looking.

    I don't want a joke answer - I just want a simple answer - what time and on what day was it last posted.

    Thanks a lot.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @ToryJim

    Remind me who brought in the new contract and rules?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Suarez starts
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    edited June 2014
    It's about to go, although the announcer said it would not be loud!

    OK that was dissapointing!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    "Well, in general, the prices of bonds and shares are very high and volatility is low. Which implies that investors have become a little myopic, a little unconscious of economic reality.

    And as Haldane says, this is eerily reminiscent of conditions before the great Crash of 2007-08."

    Nice to see at least someone agrees with me, about certain parts of our economy.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27925098
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    RobD said:

    It's about to go, although the announcer said it would not be loud!

    OK that was dissapointing!

    Disappointing?!? I've seen more explosive farts!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Hmm. BBC describes ESA as 'new', but it's 6 years old. Not sure that's necessarily the best term to use.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    ToryJim said:

    RobD said:

    It's about to go, although the announcer said it would not be loud!

    OK that was dissapointing!

    Disappointing?!? I've seen more explosive farts!!
    Quite, from the endless hype I was expecting the whole thing to go up! Totally disillusioned with the internet right now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. D, reminds me of videogames. Lots of hype can mean something's super, or super disappointing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Jim, Caesar was monumentally fortunate, as was Alexander. Determination's a good asset, though. and you're quite right about him being vain. Some say he invented the combover.

    Mr. Eagles, it left Hannibal as leader of Carthage. Caesar's civil war (after harming his own side a lot) left him dead.

    Caesar's leadership benefited the citizens of Rome, Hannibal's leadership benefited the people of Carthage as much Grand Moff Tarkin's command of the first Death Star benefited the empire.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer

    It was heavily revised and increased in scope by the "coalition", as well you know. For all intents and purposes only the name remains the same.
    Remember all the cheering on here at the time?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Mr. Jim, Caesar was monumentally fortunate, as was Alexander. Determination's a good asset, though. and you're quite right about him being vain. Some say he invented the combover.

    Mr. Eagles, it left Hannibal as leader of Carthage. Caesar's civil war (after harming his own side a lot) left him dead.

    Alexander fortunate? Give me a break. You don't conquer beyond the edge of the known world on luck.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, just as Grand Moff Tarkin was hamstrung by the idiot designers of the Death Star, so Hannibal was hamstrung by the Hanno/Peace Party in Carthage.

    Caesar's leadership left quite a lot of Roman citizens, including himself, dead. At least Hannibal made war on another city-state, rather than his own.

    Mr. Smarmeron, if we assume that's accurate, it's a legitimate point, but to claim the ESA is new is not.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Just backed Sterling, Suarez, Gerrard, Sterling and Cahill FGS.

    Paddy Power offering MBS if Uruguay win.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Mr. Eagles, just as Grand Moff Tarkin was hamstrung by the idiot designers of the Death Star, so Hannibal was hamstrung by the Hanno/Peace Party in Carthage.

    Caesar's leadership left quite a lot of Roman citizens, including himself, dead. At least Hannibal made war on another city-state, rather than his own.

    Mr. Smarmeron, if we assume that's accurate, it's a legitimate point, but to claim the ESA is new is not.

    Remind me of the chap, who in his manifest pledges to build a fleet of idiotically designed Death Stars?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer

    Yes, the name of the benefit is not new, and it is badly worded, What they should have said is "the new VERSION" of the test/benefit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Socrates, I'm not arguing Alexander was other than fantastic. I'm saying that he was also fortunate. In his earliest days as king, when reasserting himself over those his father had subjugated and wished to break free from Macedon, he found himself in a very tricky situation and a combination of quick-wittedness and fortune saved him*. Later, he was shot in the lung, assailed on all sides by an angry garrison and defended by just two men (the scaling ladders had been over-burdened and snapped, temporarily isolating the king and his two friends). He survived that.

    Alexander's the greatest of ancient generals. I'm not having a go at him at all, just stating that he was fortunate as well as incredibly clever and hard-working.

    *I forget precisely who he was fighting, but he could not approach because of lack of skirmishers, I think, whereas his enemy had a large number. So, he made the army go through drills for a very long time, then suddenly commanded them to attack. The enemy had been watching them for hours, was half asleep, and suddenly found itself being charged.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, of course I'll have the designs improved! Honestly.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2014
    MikeL said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    When is the next JackW ARSE projection? I thought it was Thurs 9am?

    He shat himself this morning
    Please, please , please will someone tell me when JackW's forecast was last posted.

    I have searched both threads today in full and can't find it. I'm quite busy and don't have hours to spend more time looking.

    I don't want a joke answer - I just want a simple answer - what time and on what day was it last posted.

    Thanks a lot.
    The latest ARSE 2015 GE and first "JackW Dozen" projection was published last Tuesday - 12th June at 9:00am

    As indicated previously these projections will now normally be published fortnightly on a Tuesday until the New Year. Accordingly the next projections will be next Tuesday.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Mr. Eagles, just as Grand Moff Tarkin was hamstrung by the idiot designers of the Death Star, so Hannibal was hamstrung by the Hanno/Peace Party in Carthage.

    Caesar's leadership left quite a lot of Roman citizens, including himself, dead. At least Hannibal made war on another city-state, rather than his own.

    Mr. Smarmeron, if we assume that's accurate, it's a legitimate point, but to claim the ESA is new is not.

    Remind me of the chap, who in his manifest pledges to build a fleet of idiotically designed Death Stars?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcL6DwSufMI
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Mr. Socrates, I'm not arguing Alexander was other than fantastic. I'm saying that he was also fortunate. In his earliest days as king, when reasserting himself over those his father had subjugated and wished to break free from Macedon, he found himself in a very tricky situation and a combination of quick-wittedness and fortune saved him*. Later, he was shot in the lung, assailed on all sides by an angry garrison and defended by just two men (the scaling ladders had been over-burdened and snapped, temporarily isolating the king and his two friends). He survived that.

    Alexander's the greatest of ancient generals. I'm not having a go at him at all, just stating that he was fortunate as well as incredibly clever and hard-working.

    *I forget precisely who he was fighting, but he could not approach because of lack of skirmishers, I think, whereas his enemy had a large number. So, he made the army go through drills for a very long time, then suddenly commanded them to attack. The enemy had been watching them for hours, was half asleep, and suddenly found itself being charged.

    One wonders how far he would have got had he recovered from typhoid/malaria/whatever it was and had another twenty years. Conquered Arabia and half the Med presumably.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Morris Dancer ... The Grand Moff Tarkin was undone by the inability of his highly trained Imperial Stormtroopers to shoot straight.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    England favourites with Betfair punters:

    England 2.02
    Uruguay 3.9
    Draw 3.9

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.112173785&exp=e
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Ed is crap piece on ITV news a few minutes ago.

    TV media late to the party as always - PB had this meme nailed back in 2011...
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Socrates said:

    Mr. Jim, Caesar was monumentally fortunate, as was Alexander. Determination's a good asset, though. and you're quite right about him being vain. Some say he invented the combover.

    Mr. Eagles, it left Hannibal as leader of Carthage. Caesar's civil war (after harming his own side a lot) left him dead.

    Alexander fortunate? Give me a break. You don't conquer beyond the edge of the known world on luck.
    All generals need luck, or more accurately they need determination to overcome their bad luck.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "BBC Breaking News @bbcbreaking
    UK Deputy PM Nick Clegg says MP Mike Hancock will be expelled from Lib Dems after "inappropriate" friendship with female constituent"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I ought to be backing Uruguay but it's difficult to be anti-patriotic.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited June 2014
    AndyJS said:

    "BBC Breaking News @bbcbreaking
    UK Deputy PM Nick Clegg says MP Mike Hancock will be expelled from Lib Dems after "inappropriate" friendship with female constituent"

    I thought Mark Senior said it wasn't within Clegg's authority to expel Hanky Panky?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    "BBC Breaking News @bbcbreaking
    UK Deputy PM Nick Clegg says MP Mike Hancock will be expelled from Lib Dems after "inappropriate" friendship with female constituent"

    But Mark Senior told us earlier that this wasnt possible!

    Now what about Rennard - how's that investigation going?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited June 2014
    AndyJS said:

    I ought to be backing Uruguay but it's difficult to be anti-patriotic.

    Bah, I've backed Uruguay.

    I backed England to lose 5 nil in the Ashes.

    Makes defeat a bit easier to take.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    A by-election in Portsmouth South this autumn would be a fun teaser trailer for the general election...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Ed is crap piece on ITV news a few minutes ago.

    TV media late to the party as always - PB had this meme nailed back in 2011...

    @cathynewman: On #c4news - blowing up a mountain, the woes of @Ed_Miliband, is Rod Liddle a bigot? and inside Britain First
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    AndyJS said:

    I ought to be backing Uruguay but it's difficult to be anti-patriotic.

    Lay England then a last minute draw gets celebrations and cash.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "BBC Breaking News @bbcbreaking
    UK Deputy PM Nick Clegg says MP Mike Hancock will be expelled from Lib Dems after "inappropriate" friendship with female constituent"

    I thought Mark Senior said it wasn't within Clegg's authority to expel Hanky Panky?

    It is not , there are procedures that have to be gone through ,
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steve_hawkes: Lib Dem confusion- reports saying Hancock is being expelled but spokesman says that's for the regional party committee to decide
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    MikeK said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "1632 Isis has seized a chemical weapons facility built by Saddam Hussein which contains a stockpile of old weapons, State Department officials have told the Wall Street Journal"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10910868/Iraq-crisis-Obama-may-launch-air-strikes-without-Congress-amid-calls-for-Maliki-to-go-live.html

    Is this the WMD Saddam didn't have and couldn't be found when we invaded?!?
    It looks very much that the US military knew of this cache of chemical weapons and where it was stored. If they were so worried about this stuff ( a form of Sarin gas I believe) why the hell didn't they destroy the stuff when they had the chance?

    The more one scrutinises US mideast policy the more one want's to throw up!
    You are avoiding Tory Jim's point. We were told there were no chemical weapons after a search by UN weapons inspectors. If the US knew about them I think it highly unlikly they would keep it secret given the heat they took.
    Either there really were WMD or this story about them now being captured is a load of bull
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alex Salmond has been urged to come clean about a report written by one of his most senior mandarins about a separate Scotland’s start-up costs.

    The First Minister attacked as “nonsense” a Telegraph article that his civil servants have drawn up a rush report on the issue in the wake of a furore over his refusal to produce any costs before the referendum.

    But this newspaper can disclose that a document on creating a separate Scotland was submitted to him this month by Don McGillivray, deputy director of the Scottish Government's elections and constitution division.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10913049/Mandarin-handed-independent-Scotland-set-up-report-to-Alex-Salmond.html
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    GIN1138 said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South this autumn would be a fun teaser trailer for the general election...

    What are the chances of Hancock doing the honourable thing? Pretty slim I would have thought.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Neil said:

    GIN1138 said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South this autumn would be a fun teaser trailer for the general election...

    What are the chances of Hancock doing the honourable thing? Pretty slim I would have thought.
    Why break the habit of a lifetime?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I felt the same with my 33:1 zero points bet.

    Both teams have good striking options and weak defences and need wins. Has nil nil written all over it!

    AndyJS said:

    I ought to be backing Uruguay but it's difficult to be anti-patriotic.

    Bah, I've backed Uruguay.

    I backed England to lose 5 nil in the Ashes.

    Makes defeat a bit easier to take.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Neil said:

    GIN1138 said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South this autumn would be a fun teaser trailer for the general election...

    What are the chances of Hancock doing the honourable thing? Pretty slim I would have thought.
    Probably.

    Though if he hates Clegg enough it's just possible he might resign his seat to force Clegg to endure another electoral drubbing?
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeK said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "1632 Isis has seized a chemical weapons facility built by Saddam Hussein which contains a stockpile of old weapons, State Department officials have told the Wall Street Journal"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10910868/Iraq-crisis-Obama-may-launch-air-strikes-without-Congress-amid-calls-for-Maliki-to-go-live.html

    Is this the WMD Saddam didn't have and couldn't be found when we invaded?!?
    It looks very much that the US military knew of this cache of chemical weapons and where it was stored. If they were so worried about this stuff ( a form of Sarin gas I believe) why the hell didn't they destroy the stuff when they had the chance?

    The more one scrutinises US mideast policy the more one want's to throw up!
    Another good reason for UK to stay with the EU rather than becoming involved with some mid-Atlantic grouping, governed by the US!
    I don't think one is obliged to ally oneself with anyone.

    Switzerland and Norway seem to have done OK with policies of studied neutrality.
    Norway got invaded by the Nazis did they not?

    I regard the policy of neutrality by countries like Norway, Switzerland and Ireland at times in the past to be one of rank selfishness. All it takes for evil to prosper is for good men to do nothing.
    Presumably, the Germans and the Italians and the Japanese and the Finns - all of whom have been essentially neutral since WW2 - are equally guilty.

    Remind me: did our intervention in Iraq help make the locals better or worse off?
    Worse off. Remind me: is it logically sensible to base our entire foreign policy on the lessons drawn from one situation?

    It's like someone goes for runs on a regular basis, but once they tripped and hurt themselves, so they decide going for runs is a bad idea to do any more. Interventions in WW2, Malaya, Korea, Bosnia, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Libya, even Afghanistan, all improved the situation for the locals.
    Highly debateable, especially Yugoslavia, but they all left Britain worse.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I'm not sure if I should laugh or be worried at Britain First
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Phil Neville gets his whines in first - Spanish speaking ref and linesmen. Must be convinced Uruguay are not going to lose.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    David Mills ‏@DavidMills73 15m

    New poll suggests voters in marginal seats are sick to death of being asked questions by pollsters on behalf of @LordAshcroft
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    Neil said:

    GIN1138 said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South this autumn would be a fun teaser trailer for the general election...

    What are the chances of Hancock doing the honourable thing? Pretty slim I would have thought.
    Probably.

    Though if he hates Clegg enough it's just possible he might resign his seat to force Clegg to endure another electoral drubbing?
    Clegg has done everything he can to keep Hancock in parliament, so there is no reason for hatred.
    Hancock is going to remain an MP until the judge says so, if it goes to a judge that is ( again, Clegg is doing everything he can not to).
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    David Mills ‏@DavidMills73 15m

    New poll suggests voters in marginal seats are sick to death of being asked questions by pollsters on behalf of @LordAshcroft

    Ha
  • MikeK said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "1632 Isis has seized a chemical weapons facility built by Saddam Hussein which contains a stockpile of old weapons, State Department officials have told the Wall Street Journal"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10910868/Iraq-crisis-Obama-may-launch-air-strikes-without-Congress-amid-calls-for-Maliki-to-go-live.html

    Is this the WMD Saddam didn't have and couldn't be found when we invaded?!?
    It looks very much that the US military knew of this cache of chemical weapons and where it was stored. If they were so worried about this stuff ( a form of Sarin gas I believe) why the hell didn't they destroy the stuff when they had the chance?

    The more one scrutinises US mideast policy the more one want's to throw up!
    You are avoiding Tory Jim's point. We were told there were no chemical weapons after a search by UN weapons inspectors. If the US knew about them I think it highly unlikly they would keep it secret given the heat they took.
    Either there really were WMD or this story about them now being captured is a load of bull
    It wasn't left behind by the US forces was it?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Or stuff confiscated from Assad and awaiting disposal?

    MikeK said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "1632 Isis has seized a chemical weapons facility built by Saddam Hussein which contains a stockpile of old weapons, State Department officials have told the Wall Street Journal"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10910868/Iraq-crisis-Obama-may-launch-air-strikes-without-Congress-amid-calls-for-Maliki-to-go-live.html

    Is this the WMD Saddam didn't have and couldn't be found when we invaded?!?
    It looks very much that the US military knew of this cache of chemical weapons and where it was stored. If they were so worried about this stuff ( a form of Sarin gas I believe) why the hell didn't they destroy the stuff when they had the chance?

    The more one scrutinises US mideast policy the more one want's to throw up!
    You are avoiding Tory Jim's point. We were told there were no chemical weapons after a search by UN weapons inspectors. If the US knew about them I think it highly unlikly they would keep it secret given the heat they took.
    Either there really were WMD or this story about them now being captured is a load of bull
    It wasn't left behind by the US forces was it?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    Clegg asked Hancock to resign earlier in the day. It looks like he refused so Clegg expelled him anyway.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-27920125
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Mr. Eagles, Dyrrachium springs to mind. Caesar managed to lead veterans in a failed attack on freshly raised legions.

    Hannibal marauded around Italy in a decade of undefeated menace. Those who managed to equal (and, once, best) him were of the highest order: Marcellus, Nero, Scipio Africanus. Who did Caesar defeat? A Gallic barbarian and an old man so predictable Caesar knew to throw out a fourth line to see off the inevitable cavalry charge (and this *after* Caesar had managed to lose at Dyrrachium).

    I'd rate Caesar's uncle, Gaius Marius, as the better general. The Cimbri and Teutones, and the Italian Allies in the Social War, were far more formidable opponents than any that Caesar faced.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    In December 1939 Uruguay helped to sink the Graf Spee. Tonight I hope to see Uruguay help sink the England football team.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    edited June 2014

    I'm not sure if I should laugh or be worried at Britain First

    I would be worried. [Edit : or rather I am worried]. They have a social media campaign that is frankly second to none and better than anything I have ever seen from any political organisation of any stripe. They have been able to hijack all manner of good causes including veterans campaigns, the DD celebrations and animal welfare issues and use them to gain money and support. They make sure that nothing goes on FB that could initially reveal their BNP links and agenda and many people share and repost their stuff without realising who they are.

    Given the true nature of Britain First it is quite frightening that they have been able to appear respectable for so long.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    AndyJS said:

    Clegg asked Hancock to resign earlier in the day. It looks like he refused so Clegg expelled him anyway.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-27920125

    Mark Senior say's this isn't possible.

    Personally, I'd tend to side with Mark. Look's like silly Cleggie's over-reaching himself again...

  • Or stuff confiscated from Assad and awaiting disposal?

    MikeK said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    "1632 Isis has seized a chemical weapons facility built by Saddam Hussein which contains a stockpile of old weapons, State Department officials have told the Wall Street Journal"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10910868/Iraq-crisis-Obama-may-launch-air-strikes-without-Congress-amid-calls-for-Maliki-to-go-live.html

    Is this the WMD Saddam didn't have and couldn't be found when we invaded?!?
    It looks very much that the US military knew of this cache of chemical weapons and where it was stored. If they were so worried about this stuff ( a form of Sarin gas I believe) why the hell didn't they destroy the stuff when they had the chance?

    The more one scrutinises US mideast policy the more one want's to throw up!
    You are avoiding Tory Jim's point. We were told there were no chemical weapons after a search by UN weapons inspectors. If the US knew about them I think it highly unlikly they would keep it secret given the heat they took.
    Either there really were WMD or this story about them now being captured is a load of bull
    It wasn't left behind by the US forces was it?
    Underlines the fact that Bush & co lied and lied right through the run up to the War, during the War and after it.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting fact about Uruguay: it's relatively popular with German retirees.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    GIN1138 said:

    A by-election in Portsmouth South this autumn would be a fun teaser trailer for the general election...

    Not really, the electorate is very very young there, a quarter of voters there are students, half under the age of 35, only 1 in 7 are over 65.
    This is not a UKIP or Tory friendly seat despite the military base.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Socrates said:

    Mr. Socrates, I'm not arguing Alexander was other than fantastic. I'm saying that he was also fortunate. In his earliest days as king, when reasserting himself over those his father had subjugated and wished to break free from Macedon, he found himself in a very tricky situation and a combination of quick-wittedness and fortune saved him*. Later, he was shot in the lung, assailed on all sides by an angry garrison and defended by just two men (the scaling ladders had been over-burdened and snapped, temporarily isolating the king and his two friends). He survived that.

    Alexander's the greatest of ancient generals. I'm not having a go at him at all, just stating that he was fortunate as well as incredibly clever and hard-working.

    *I forget precisely who he was fighting, but he could not approach because of lack of skirmishers, I think, whereas his enemy had a large number. So, he made the army go through drills for a very long time, then suddenly commanded them to attack. The enemy had been watching them for hours, was half asleep, and suddenly found itself being charged.

    One wonders how far he would have got had he recovered from typhoid/malaria/whatever it was and had another twenty years. Conquered Arabia and half the Med presumably.
    Alexander was in a league of his own, as a general, but had no political skills. His subordinates so feared and hated them that they very likely poisoned him.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    I never knew Scotland had so many immigrants from Uruguay, there are dozens of their flags hanging from buildings.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Socrates said:

    Mr. Jim, Caesar was monumentally fortunate, as was Alexander. Determination's a good asset, though. and you're quite right about him being vain. Some say he invented the combover.

    Mr. Eagles, it left Hannibal as leader of Carthage. Caesar's civil war (after harming his own side a lot) left him dead.

    Alexander fortunate? Give me a break. You don't conquer beyond the edge of the known world on luck.
    He certainly was fortunate. Cleitus saved him from certain death at the Granicus.

    Conversely, there have been outstanding generals, who got cut down by a stray bullet or knife, who were betrayed, or assassinated.

    Napoleon saw luck as a virtue in a general.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    JackW said:

    MikeL said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    When is the next JackW ARSE projection? I thought it was Thurs 9am?

    He shat himself this morning
    Please, please , please will someone tell me when JackW's forecast was last posted.

    I have searched both threads today in full and can't find it. I'm quite busy and don't have hours to spend more time looking.

    I don't want a joke answer - I just want a simple answer - what time and on what day was it last posted.

    Thanks a lot.
    The latest ARSE 2015 GE and first "JackW Dozen" projection was published last Tuesday - 12th June at 9:00am

    As indicated previously these projections will now normally be published fortnightly on a Tuesday until the New Year. Accordingly the next projections will be next Tuesday.

    Many thanks JackW - though today is Thurs 19 June so Tuesday could not have been 12th June.

    Do you mean Tues 10th June or Tues 17th June?
  • I'm not sure if I should laugh or be worried at Britain First

    I would be worried. [Edit : or rather I am worried]. They have a social media campaign that is frankly second to none and better than anything I have ever seen from any political organisation of any stripe. They have been able to hijack all manner of good causes including veterans campaigns, the DD celebrations and animal welfare issues and use them to gain money and support. They make sure that nothing goes on FB that could initially reveal their BNP links and agenda and many people share and repost their stuff without realising who they are.

    Given the true nature of Britain First it is quite frightening that they have been able to appear respectable for so long.
    Indeed, I am frequently surprised by some of my (often quite lefty) friends that share Britain First Facebook posts.
  • TSE's World cup strategy of backing the underdog has paid dividends again.
    A 54% profit on my stake already. Which is nice.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeL said:

    JackW said:

    MikeL said:

    malcolmg said:

    MikeL said:

    When is the next JackW ARSE projection? I thought it was Thurs 9am?

    He shat himself this morning
    Please, please , please will someone tell me when JackW's forecast was last posted.

    I have searched both threads today in full and can't find it. I'm quite busy and don't have hours to spend more time looking.

    I don't want a joke answer - I just want a simple answer - what time and on what day was it last posted.

    Thanks a lot.
    The latest ARSE 2015 GE and first "JackW Dozen" projection was published last Tuesday - 12th June at 9:00am

    As indicated previously these projections will now normally be published fortnightly on a Tuesday until the New Year. Accordingly the next projections will be next Tuesday.

    Many thanks JackW - though today is Thurs 19 June so Tuesday could not have been 12th June.

    Do you mean Tues 10th June or Tues 17th June?
    Apologies. 10th June.

This discussion has been closed.