As a strong Tory supporter I remain a sceptic about the value of marginal polling in general and Ashcroft polls in particular. He has spent a lot of money and his weekly polls are interesting but have fluctuated a lot. I still think Populus/YG/ICM have the edge.
We have never had marginals polling as detailed and comprehensive as this. I can see why you don't like the numbers as you preface your remarks with your allegiance.
Wrong - the numbers aren't bad for my party as it goes - I simply feel that the Ashcroft investment, big as it is, leaves me underwhelmed as to the reliability of his marginal polling. I certainly would be unwilling to draw too many conclusions from it about what may happen next year.
If the Lord A polls had the Conservatives outperforming national swing in these seats would you have believed in them ?
Absolutely not - of more interest to me is that in both the locals and the euros the Cons out-performed the polls by between 2-3%. In the end it's always the real polls which matter.
As someone who is from Eastleigh I have always found it surprising when people have said on here that Eastleigh is a key UKIP target. UKIP will never win Eastleigh, Eastleigh is LIb Dem heaven. If the Lib Dems lose Eastleigh will have no MPs.
Just a quick question - how come they are so far behind on the first question ?
As a strong Tory supporter I remain a sceptic about the value of marginal polling in general and Ashcroft polls in particular. He has spent a lot of money and his weekly polls are interesting but have fluctuated a lot. I still think Populus/YG/ICM have the edge.
We have never had marginals polling as detailed and comprehensive as this. I can see why you don't like the numbers as you preface your remarks with your allegiance.
Polling vs PB Tory anecdote
Where was my anecdote? Look at the euros and locals if you want to know how close the Cons are to Labour.
As someone who is from Eastleigh I have always found it surprising when people have said on here that Eastleigh is a key UKIP target. UKIP will never win Eastleigh, Eastleigh is LIb Dem heaven. If the Lib Dems lose Eastleigh will have no MPs.
Just a quick question - how come they are so far behind on the first question ?
I have no idea, Eastleigh is just a bit weird, just look at the make up of the Council. If you drove round the areas in Eastleigh Borough you would think that Eastleigh would have a decent representation of tories on the council, but it doesn't. I dont understand it, its just the way it is.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
As a strong Tory supporter I remain a sceptic about the value of marginal polling in general and Ashcroft polls in particular. He has spent a lot of money and his weekly polls are interesting but have fluctuated a lot. I still think Populus/YG/ICM have the edge.
We have never had marginals polling as detailed and comprehensive as this. I can see why you don't like the numbers as you preface your remarks with your allegiance.
Wrong - the numbers aren't bad for my party as it goes - I simply feel that the Ashcroft investment, big as it is, leaves me underwhelmed as to the reliability of his marginal polling. I certainly would be unwilling to draw too many conclusions from it about what may happen next year.
If the Lord A polls had the Conservatives outperforming national swing in these seats would you have believed in them ?
Absolutely not - of more interest to me is that in both the locals and the euros the Cons out-performed the polls by between 2-3%. In the end it's always the real polls which matter.
I shall look forward to the Kippers winning the General Election then.
"But UKIP are not just a problem for the Tories. Those who voted Lib Dem at the last election were as likely to say they would switch to UKIP (13%) as to say they would switch to Labour (13%). A further 11% said they intended to vote Conservative. The party is literally losing votes right, left and centre."
You'll give IOS a heart attack! Remember his prediction that Hughes wouldnt even stand he was that likely to lose and lose badly? In many ways IOS is a good (if less entertaining) replacement for Roger.
"But UKIP are not just a problem for the Tories. Those who voted Lib Dem at the last election were as likely to say they would switch to UKIP (13%) as to say they would switch to Labour (13%). A further 11% said they intended to vote Conservative. The party is literally losing votes right, left and centre."
Interesting that the Tories are no longer considered a party of the right.
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
The two Ashcroft seats that feature in the "JackW Dozen" - North Cornwall and Watford are both TCTC - fewer than 500 votes with me and a tie and Con +5 with Lord A.
Sorry Jack (and Lord A), but us punters are waiting for Ave It to call Watford.
Certainly cannot be worse than the outpourings from Jack's ARSE
Following Jack's ARSE is very profitable, Watford in 2010 and Florida in 2012, were his only incorrect calls (and oh Speaker Ma Beckett)
That's an impressive track record.
Of those three only Florida was an ARSE call.
And bloody Missouri spoiled my otherwise faultless copybook in 2008.
The two Ashcroft seats that feature in the "JackW Dozen" - North Cornwall and Watford are both TCTC - fewer than 500 votes with me and a tie and Con +5 with Lord A.
Sorry Jack (and Lord A), but us punters are waiting for Ave It to call Watford.
Certainly cannot be worse than the outpourings from Jack's ARSE
Following Jack's ARSE is very profitable, Watford in 2010 and Florida in 2012, were his only incorrect calls (and oh Speaker Ma Beckett)
That's an impressive track record.
Of those three only Florida was an ARSE call.
And bloody Missouri spoiled my otherwise faultless copybook in 2008.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
As someone who is from Eastleigh I have always found it surprising when people have said on here that Eastleigh is a key UKIP target. UKIP will never win Eastleigh, Eastleigh is LIb Dem heaven. If the Lib Dems lose Eastleigh will have no MPs.
Just a quick question - how come they are so far behind on the first question ?
I have no idea, Eastleigh is just a bit weird, just look at the make up of the Council. If you drove round the areas in Eastleigh Borough you would think that Eastleigh would have a decent representation of tories on the council, but it doesn't. I dont understand it, its just the way it is.
I live half a mile from Eastleigh, in Fareham constituency. As I remember Eastleigh was considered a three way marginal at the time of the By-Election caused by the death of Tory MP Stephen Milligan, who previously had a 17,700 majority. In fact in the by-election the LDs got 44%, with Labour second on 28% and the Tories on 25%. Farage had 1.7% slightly ahead of Screaming Lord Sutch! As far as the council is concerned the LDs have been gaining seats in good and bad times for the LDs and now have 40 out of the 44 seats. The Tories have the other 4. I would agree with CurryStar that UKIP stand no chance of taking Eastleigh at the GE.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
Ed Milibands Labour takes on the World Cup semi final on July 9th
"There are few people in Britain more courageous, determined and inspirational than Doreen Lawrence. We are enormously privileged to have her as a Labour peer — and I am more than a little jealous of your chance to join her table at our annual gala dinner. "
If you'd like to have dinner with Baroness Doreen Lawrence, all we ask is that you make a £3 donation to help us beat the Tories at the next election,"
Not sure using the phrase "beat up " was wise given the speaker..
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 : Orkney & Shetland .. Ross Skye .. Westmoreland .. Leeds NW .. Sheffield Hallam Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Bermondsey .. Cheltenham Hazelgrove .. Southport .. Cheadle .. North Norfolk .. Colchester Bath .. Thornbury & Yate .. Yeovil .. Ceredigion .. Eastleigh
JackW some of those certainties will still require a huge effort to retain. Cheadle just needs a 3.1% swing to C, although Lord A predicting a hold. Kingston is going to be a fight due to local circumstances. The LDs will this time have to fight hard in their core seats and those MPs will be focused on just keeping their own seat.
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
Its no coincidence that the only 3 seats that defy the national fall of 16% for the LD by quite a bit are Watford, Eastleigh, and Sutton, the latter 2 having by far the biggest increase from Q2.
What is the common factor if I may ask btw.
The names of all those constituencies have vowels in them.
Brave call to expect the LibDems to do well in Wales ;-)
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 : Orkney & Shetland .. Ross Skye .. Westmoreland .. Leeds NW .. Sheffield Hallam Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Bermondsey .. Cheltenham Hazelgrove .. Southport .. Cheadle .. North Norfolk .. Colchester Bath .. Thornbury & Yate .. Yeovil .. Ceredigion .. Eastleigh
JackW some of those certainties will still require a huge effort to retain. Cheadle just needs a 3.1% swing to C, although Lord A predicting a hold. Kingston is going to be a fight due to local circumstances. The LDs will this time have to fight hard in their core seats and those MPs will be focused on just keeping their own seat.
I wonder how that will pan out for the national campaign. If a lot of their stars are fighting rear guard actions in their own seats does that affect their ability to put a message across nationally. It's a predicament.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
They won't hold North Norfolk. You heard it here first.
Chortle .... You are Iain Dale and I claim a right of reply on LBC
We shall see. When Norfolk decides, Norfolk decides. And it has decided the Lib Dems are done. I shall be hoovering up the juicy odds accordingly.
You make the classic mistake of looking at the seat in pure political label terms.
North Norfolk will be held because of Norman Lamb as Iain Dale found to his cost, just as many other LibDem seats will be held.
Norfolk may or may not like the yellow peril but they certainly like Stormin Norman just as they like Farron in Westmoreland or Charlie Kennedy in Ross.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
They won't hold North Norfolk. You heard it here first.
Chortle .... You are Iain Dale and I claim a right of reply on LBC
We shall see. When Norfolk decides, Norfolk decides. And it has decided the Lib Dems are done. I shall be hoovering up the juicy odds accordingly.
Who is it going to - Conservative or UKIP ?
Conservative, Lib Dems to UKIP and losing their squeezed reds dragging them under 35%, Tories through the middle high 30s. Everyone is welcome to scoff at my lunacy next May
As someone who is from Eastleigh I have always found it surprising when people have said on here that Eastleigh is a key UKIP target. UKIP will never win Eastleigh, Eastleigh is LIb Dem heaven. If the Lib Dems lose Eastleigh will have no MPs.
Just a quick question - how come they are so far behind on the first question ?
I have no idea, Eastleigh is just a bit weird, just look at the make up of the Council. If you drove round the areas in Eastleigh Borough you would think that Eastleigh would have a decent representation of tories on the council, but it doesn't. I dont understand it, its just the way it is.
Essentially Eastleigh has become a payroll for LD people who derive income from cllr payments. The Borough Leader also has income as a county cllr and his household income from the councils is greater than that for an MP. These cllrs are reliant upon this money so they campaign continually to get re-elected and to keep out the other parties. If the allowances were cut back the party would die there as well. The concept of volunteer unpaid cllrs would be the death knell of Eastleigh LDs.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
Portsmouth was also similar to Eastleigh with even larger councillor allowances, which is one of the reasons why the LDs in Portsmouth had been so unwilling to tackle Hancock. It risked the local gravy train.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
They won't hold North Norfolk. You heard it here first.
Chortle .... You are Iain Dale and I claim a right of reply on LBC
We shall see. When Norfolk decides, Norfolk decides. And it has decided the Lib Dems are done. I shall be hoovering up the juicy odds accordingly.
You make the classic mistake of looking at the seat in pure political label terms.
North Norfolk will be held because of Norman Lamb as Iain Dale found to his cost, just as many other LibDem seats will be held.
Norfolk may or may not like the yellow peril but they certainly like Stormin Norman just as they like Farron in Westmoreland or Charlie Kennedy in Ross.
But do they like him enough? The Tories just need to get him into the 30s and it's game on. My local nostrils sense a mid thirties polling for the Lamb in Kittens clothing.
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
I guess that just about wraps it up for Dave
She's had dinner with him several times - doesn't think he knows how to listen.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 : Orkney & Shetland .. Ross Skye .. Westmoreland .. Leeds NW .. Sheffield Hallam Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Bermondsey .. Cheltenham Hazelgrove .. Southport .. Cheadle .. North Norfolk .. Colchester Bath .. Thornbury & Yate .. Yeovil .. Ceredigion .. Eastleigh
JackW some of those certainties will still require a huge effort to retain. Cheadle just needs a 3.1% swing to C, although Lord A predicting a hold. Kingston is going to be a fight due to local circumstances. The LDs will this time have to fight hard in their core seats and those MPs will be focused on just keeping their own seat.
I wonder how that will pan out for the national campaign. If a lot of their stars are fighting rear guard actions in their own seats does that affect their ability to put a message across nationally. It's a predicament.
Exactly, the LDs are ceasing to behave as a national party.
Just to further to North Norfolk lunacy, who are the people of North Norfolk? They are old. There will be disproportionate drift to UKIP, Lamb has more of those wrinklies to lose and there is the national,trend to compound it.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
What does she think of Miliband?
Haven't asked her - she covers the soft centre for us*. My uncle covers the left (he was very close to Michael Foot) so will ask when I next catch up with him.
* FWIW, I'm responsible for the economically dry/socially liberal group and the moderate Eurosceptics, while my father looks after the centrist/wet Tories.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
What does she think of Miliband?
Like most people on here, I doubt she's ever met him.
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
What does she think of Miliband?
Like most people on here, I doubt she's ever met him.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
What does she think of Miliband?
Like most people on here, I doubt she's ever met him.
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
What does she think of Miliband?
Like most people on here, I doubt she's ever met him.
Relentless "this man is useless" coverage by the media will ignite the Brits' instinctive affection for the underdog and result in an EdM bounce.
I mean even I'm getting sick of it as it's beginning to look like bullying.
Just like the patriotism error (by the media) - policies: yes, the man: no.
Interesting post this. I have thought it but not advanced the argument as I assumed it would be my bias. Takes a Tory to say it. Does you great credit.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 : Orkney & Shetland .. Ross Skye .. Westmoreland .. Leeds NW .. Sheffield Hallam Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Bermondsey .. Cheltenham Hazelgrove .. Southport .. Cheadle .. North Norfolk .. Colchester Bath .. Thornbury & Yate .. Yeovil .. Ceredigion .. Eastleigh
JackW some of those certainties will still require a huge effort to retain. Cheadle just needs a 3.1% swing to C, although Lord A predicting a hold. Kingston is going to be a fight due to local circumstances. The LDs will this time have to fight hard in their core seats and those MPs will be focused on just keeping their own seat.
I wonder how that will pan out for the national campaign. If a lot of their stars are fighting rear guard actions in their own seats does that affect their ability to put a message across nationally. It's a predicament.
Exactly, the LDs are ceasing to behave as a national party.
It's intriguing, I'm wondering if a lack of air cover will hamper the ground war. In other words is the local entirely dissociated from the national or leveraged from it. I honestly don't know, but it's worth pondering.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
They won't hold North Norfolk. You heard it here first.
Norman Lamb had a 11,626 majority in 2010 in North Norfolk.
I am aware of the size of the mountain.
... but ignore it because I am a prat
Hold your fire until the results Mr Senior, lest you miscount one MEP as many or a cab full of Liberals as a coach load. There's many a mint sauce twixt Lamb and May
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
They won't hold North Norfolk. You heard it here first.
That is quite the bold prediction...
Indeed it is. Norfolk Lib Dems no longer exist. They got taken up in the Cleggasm rapture and are no longer of this Earth.
I think the easiest LibDem losses to call will be places where they've lost their local councillor and activist base. Where they remain the major local players, you'd expect them to do alright.
Fortunately for us political punters, the local election results in 2011, '12, '13, and '14 had very similar LibDem NEV shares, i.e. 12-14%. So we can just take last election results and extrapolate local strength from that.
Still strong locally (i.e. won the latest round of locals):
Regarding Mike's comment that "What @LordAshcroft poll didn't do was name the candidates/incumbents which is likely to have had an impact."
That could have worked both ways. Were respondents in Mid Dorset or Somerset and Frome aware that their LD MP is standing down in each case, or did they assume that they could still vote for their current MP?
The constituency question asked this early also gives the incumbent an advantage over the challengers, because most people won't yet be aware of who the challengers are.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
The more I think about it, the more sure I am that England will lose tonight...
Why? Just a difference in quality?
Yes and they are higher ranked than us, we appear to get cramp after 60 mins, 'local' climate and support, party leaders sent their best wishes, our defence looks like Spurs', it's on ITV, Italy also hit the bar and post and 2-1 was flattering in my eye, Suarez vs his mates (Rooney/Ronaldo repeat?), Glen Johnson, I was given 2x England car flags and face paint on father's day (costing £1 for the lot), I expect us to see a player sent off (Baines or Johnson) like all good England backs to the wall losses...
The more I think about it, the more sure I am that England will lose tonight...
Why? Just a difference in quality?
Yes and they are higher ranked than us, we appear to get cramp after 60 mins, 'local' climate and support, party leaders sent their best wishes, our defence looks like Spurs', it's on ITV, Italy also hit the bar and post and 2-1 was flattering in my eye, Suarez vs his mates (Rooney/Ronaldo repeat?), Glen Johnson, I was given 2x England car flags and face paint on father's day (costing £1 for the lot), I expect us to see a player sent off (Baines or Johnson) like all good England backs to the wall losses...
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
What does she think of Miliband?
Like most people on here, I doubt she's ever met him.
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
What does she think of Miliband?
Like most people on here, I doubt she's ever met him.
We should all be thankful for small mercies
I take it you haven't met him either.
That you wouldn't accept the opportunity to meet a political opponent is saddening.
The more I think about it, the more sure I am that England will lose tonight...
Why? Just a difference in quality?
Yes and they are higher ranked than us, we appear to get cramp after 60 mins, 'local' climate and support, party leaders sent their best wishes, our defence looks like Spurs', it's on ITV, Italy also hit the bar and post and 2-1 was flattering in my eye, Suarez vs his mates (Rooney/Ronaldo repeat?), Glen Johnson, I was given 2x England car flags and face paint on father's day (costing £1 for the lot), I expect us to see a player sent off (Baines or Johnson) like all good England backs to the wall losses...
vs
Austria won Eurovision
But didn't Uruguay lose to the mighty Costa Rica?
No.
Well ok yes but we've still to play them in what could be a dead rubber... 0 pts is possible, nay probable.
She's had dinner with him several times - doesn't think he knows how to listen.
Does that translate to: He didn't agree with her?
No - it was more that he wasn't prepared to take input from outside his inner circle.
Even if you think someone is wrong, to give the impression of not being willing to listen is a mistake. It's impolite for one thing. (FWIW, she's an SDP supporter, who votes Tory sometimes - SDP/Alliance(?) in 1983 and 1987, Kinnock in 1992, Blair in 1997 and 2001, Kennedy in 2005, Tory in 2010), so exactly the sort of person Cameron should want to appeal to.
Relentless "this man is useless" coverage by the media will ignite the Brits' instinctive affection for the underdog and result in an EdM bounce.
I mean even I'm getting sick of it as it's beginning to look like bullying.
Just like the patriotism error (by the media) - policies: yes, the man: no.
Interesting post this. I have thought it but not advanced the argument as I assumed it would be my bias. Takes a Tory to say it. Does you great credit.
I'm not a Labour supporter and think, like SO, that Labour have not done the hard thinking they need to. But Ed seems on a human level OK - and just because he's perceived as a bit "odd" does not mean that he won't be PM. Most people who go into politics, let's face it, a are a bit odd.
Plenty of legitimate bases for attacking Labour but attacking the leader over the way he eats a bacon sandwich is pathetic.
As someone who is from Eastleigh I have always found it surprising when people have said on here that Eastleigh is a key UKIP target. UKIP will never win Eastleigh, Eastleigh is LIb Dem heaven. If the Lib Dems lose Eastleigh will have no MPs.
Just a quick question - how come they are so far behind on the first question ?
I have no idea, Eastleigh is just a bit weird, just look at the make up of the Council. If you drove round the areas in Eastleigh Borough you would think that Eastleigh would have a decent representation of tories on the council, but it doesn't. I dont understand it, its just the way it is.
Essentially Eastleigh has become a payroll for LD people who derive income from cllr payments. The Borough Leader also has income as a county cllr and his household income from the councils is greater than that for an MP. These cllrs are reliant upon this money so they campaign continually to get re-elected and to keep out the other parties. If the allowances were cut back the party would die there as well. The concept of volunteer unpaid cllrs would be the death knell of Eastleigh LDs.
Why single out Eastleigh? Could it be because the LDs have a majority? Let's face it there could be any number of reasons why people become councillors and I suspect that if one was in it for the money one would be more likely to join one of the larger parties and get an easier ride.
Re Uraguay. Without a fully fit Suarez they are a much diminished team.
Absolutely, it's why there's a smidge of hope and that oft heard 'if we can play well and turn in a performance for once' (copyright Spurs season 2013/14) that's why I'm not following TSE in backing U.
Take the UKIP scores with a slight pinch of salt because the timing of the fieldwork (it was mostly done during or in the fortnight following the European elections, so when UKIP were on a bit of a publicity high), but it’s another potential pointer as to where they could do well.
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
What does she think of Miliband?
Like most people on here, I doubt she's ever met him.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
I'm surprised you put Leeds NW in the safe as houses group. It has a lot of students and there was a big Lab-LD swing last time which could easily unravel. The maj in 2005 was only 1,500. I would suggest that Bristol West is a more likely hold.
Who is likely to fare better in the months leading up to the next election, given their respective current starting points: the Lib Dems or the Conservatives?
I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
As an entirely disinterested party I'm of the view that England will coast to a comfortable victory over Uruguay.
However lest PBers of an English persuasion begin early celebrations it should be noted my football forecasting prowess is somewhat less than stellar ....
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
What does she think of Miliband?
Like most people on here, I doubt she's ever met him.
We should all be thankful for small mercies
I take it you haven't met him either.
That you wouldn't accept the opportunity to meet a political opponent is saddening.
Why on Earth would I want to meet him? I'm not a politician and he is the face of the party of betrayal of the working man. Nothing he says is of any interest to me, merely further evidence that he is the chief metropolitan luvvie with no comprehension of reality. Foot, Kinnock, Smith, Blair, Brown and the Miliband have left us with no option but to vote Tory to keep the country intact and the lazy and workshy on their toes. So, sure, if he wants to spend an evening listening to someone tell him why he is a disgrace and his party foul, wicked, introverted, biased and full of traitors then so be it. However, I imagine he would rather spend the time trying to eat soup with a fork.
LibDem seat forecasters should essentially work up from these 20 seats that short of their candidates coming out for a Jimmy Saville/Alky Ada Appreciation Society will be held in May 2015 :
They won the locals in the seat comfortably, with the LibDems in third, so that would be the most likely outcome.
That is nonsense , local elections in that part of Wales are dominated by Independent candidates . In the last Welsh Assembly elections the Plaid vote actually fell and there was a swing from Plaid to the Lib Dems .
As someone who is from Eastleigh I have always found it surprising when people have said on here that Eastleigh is a key UKIP target. UKIP will never win Eastleigh, Eastleigh is LIb Dem heaven. If the Lib Dems lose Eastleigh will have no MPs.
Just a quick question - how come they are so far behind on the first question ?
I have no idea, Eastleigh is just a bit weird, just look at the make up of the Council. If you drove round the areas in Eastleigh Borough you would think that Eastleigh would have a decent representation of tories on the council, but it doesn't. I dont understand it, its just the way it is.
Essentially Eastleigh has become a payroll for LD people who derive income from cllr payments. The Borough Leader also has income as a county cllr and his household income from the councils is greater than that for an MP. These cllrs are reliant upon this money so they campaign continually to get re-elected and to keep out the other parties. If the allowances were cut back the party would die there as well. The concept of volunteer unpaid cllrs would be the death knell of Eastleigh LDs.
Why single out Eastleigh? Could it be because the LDs have a majority? Let's face it there could be any number of reasons why people become councillors and I suspect that if one was in it for the money one would be more likely to join one of the larger parties and get an easier ride.
Mr Hannan's piece on the LDs said that the gravy train was the founding principle of the SDP:
"People sometimes think that the SDP was founded on some issue of principle: opposition to nationalisation, or to unilateral nuclear disarmament or some such. In fact, it was created because the Labour Party wanted to make incumbent MPs subject to reselection by party members.
Suddenly, the high-minded Liberals were overwhelmed by a horde of petty, calculating careerists. The remaining heirs of the Whig tradition broke away under Michael Meadowcroft, and still hold several council seats under their old name, the Liberal Party, mainly in Merseyside. The rest of the party became what it is today: a tricksy, self-righteous alliance of convenience, prepared to say whatever local people want to hear."
Who is likely to fare better in the months leading up to the next election, given their respective current starting points: the Lib Dems or the Conservatives?
I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
Finger in the air time for next GE:
Con 34 Lab 33 LD 11 UKIP 13
Ed Miliband PM of minority administration. C&S from Lib Dems...
Both equally recovering would be a decent assumption. Lib Dems perhaps a smidgen more ?
As someone who is from Eastleigh I have always found it surprising when people have said on here that Eastleigh is a key UKIP target. UKIP will never win Eastleigh, Eastleigh is LIb Dem heaven. If the Lib Dems lose Eastleigh will have no MPs.
Just a quick question - how come they are so far behind on the first question ?
I have no idea, Eastleigh is just a bit weird, just look at the make up of the Council. If you drove round the areas in Eastleigh Borough you would think that Eastleigh would have a decent representation of tories on the council, but it doesn't. I dont understand it, its just the way it is.
Essentially Eastleigh has become a payroll for LD people who derive income from cllr payments. The Borough Leader also has income as a county cllr and his household income from the councils is greater than that for an MP. These cllrs are reliant upon this money so they campaign continually to get re-elected and to keep out the other parties. If the allowances were cut back the party would die there as well. The concept of volunteer unpaid cllrs would be the death knell of Eastleigh LDs.
Why single out Eastleigh? Could it be because the LDs have a majority? Let's face it there could be any number of reasons why people become councillors and I suspect that if one was in it for the money one would be more likely to join one of the larger parties and get an easier ride.
Mr Hannan's piece on the LDs said that the gravy train was the founding principle of the SDP:
"People sometimes think that the SDP was founded on some issue of principle: opposition to nationalisation, or to unilateral nuclear disarmament or some such. In fact, it was created because the Labour Party wanted to make incumbent MPs subject to reselection by party members.
Suddenly, the high-minded Liberals were overwhelmed by a horde of petty, calculating careerists. The remaining heirs of the Whig tradition broke away under Michael Meadowcroft, and still hold several council seats under their old name, the Liberal Party, mainly in Merseyside. The rest of the party became what it is today: a tricksy, self-righteous alliance of convenience, prepared to say whatever local people want to hear."
As someone who is from Eastleigh I have always found it surprising when people have said on here that Eastleigh is a key UKIP target. UKIP will never win Eastleigh, Eastleigh is LIb Dem heaven. If the Lib Dems lose Eastleigh will have no MPs.
Just a quick question - how come they are so far behind on the first question ?
I have no idea, Eastleigh is just a bit weird, just look at the make up of the Council. If you drove round the areas in Eastleigh Borough you would think that Eastleigh would have a decent representation of tories on the council, but it doesn't. I dont understand it, its just the way it is.
Essentially Eastleigh has become a payroll for LD people who derive income from cllr payments. The Borough Leader also has income as a county cllr and his household income from the councils is greater than that for an MP. These cllrs are reliant upon this money so they campaign continually to get re-elected and to keep out the other parties. If the allowances were cut back the party would die there as well. The concept of volunteer unpaid cllrs would be the death knell of Eastleigh LDs.
Why single out Eastleigh? Could it be because the LDs have a majority? Let's face it there could be any number of reasons why people become councillors and I suspect that if one was in it for the money one would be more likely to join one of the larger parties and get an easier ride.
Mr Hannan's piece on the LDs said that the gravy train was the founding principle of the SDP:
"People sometimes think that the SDP was founded on some issue of principle: opposition to nationalisation, or to unilateral nuclear disarmament or some such. In fact, it was created because the Labour Party wanted to make incumbent MPs subject to reselection by party members.
Suddenly, the high-minded Liberals were overwhelmed by a horde of petty, calculating careerists. The remaining heirs of the Whig tradition broke away under Michael Meadowcroft, and still hold several council seats under their old name, the Liberal Party, mainly in Merseyside. The rest of the party became what it is today: a tricksy, self-righteous alliance of convenience, prepared to say whatever local people want to hear."
While you're right about it being about local members selecting and de-selecting MPs, remember that Militant and the like were about infiltrating local parties and forcing out MPs who disagreed with their hard left views.
ADDED: it all started with Dick Taverne, of course.
The two Ashcroft seats that feature in the "JackW Dozen" - North Cornwall and Watford are both TCTC - fewer than 500 votes with me and a tie and Con +5 with Lord A.
Sorry Jack (and Lord A), but us punters are waiting for Ave It to call Watford.
Certainly cannot be worse than the outpourings from Jack's ARSE
And yet whilst you just spew bile on the site my ARSE has been consistently accurate in forecasting General Elections both here and across the pond.
Yaawn , away and make an imaginary pie to go with your imaginary Scottishness
Comments
We hope and pray your ARSE doesn't suffer a prolapse, a common condition in those of considerable years. ;-)
Better poll for LD than I was expecting for sure.
St Ives within MoE...
Orkney & Shetland .. Ross Skye .. Westmoreland .. Leeds NW .. Sheffield Hallam
Twickenham .. Sutton & Cheam .. Kingston & Surbiton .. Bermondsey .. Cheltenham
Hazelgrove .. Southport .. Cheadle .. North Norfolk .. Colchester
Bath .. Thornbury & Yate .. Yeovil .. Ceredigion .. Eastleigh
"But UKIP are not just a problem for the Tories. Those who voted Lib Dem at the last election were as likely to say they would switch to UKIP (13%) as to say they would switch to Labour (13%). A further 11% said they intended to vote Conservative. The party is literally losing votes right, left and centre."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10911618/Westminster-partly-evacuated-over-suspect-device.html
My Mum is a very fine judge of character. She used to run the magistracy, first regionally and then nationally - plenty of characters (although mainly on her side of the bench!)
And bloody Missouri spoiled my otherwise faultless copybook in 2008.
Apparently it was 27 degrees in Perth yesterday. That's Perth, Scotland not Australia.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/saudiarabia/10911281/Iraq-crisis-Britain-and-US-must-not-meddle-in-Iraq-warns-Saudi-Arabia.html
Douglas Carswell is right, its time to change allegiances in the middle east.
Watford looks like being a Tory hold on a very low share of the vote.
I would agree with CurryStar that UKIP stand no chance of taking Eastleigh at the GE.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/teen-loses-finger-at-croydon-rave-continues-dancing-because-the-bass-was-hard-9546200.html
"There are few people in Britain more courageous, determined and inspirational than Doreen Lawrence. We are enormously privileged to have her as a Labour peer — and I am more than a little jealous of your chance to join her table at our annual gala dinner. "
If you'd like to have dinner with Baroness Doreen Lawrence, all we ask is that you make a £3 donation to help us beat the Tories at the next election,"
Not sure using the phrase "beat up " was wise given the speaker..
Con 33%
UKIP 22%
Lab 18%
LD 16%
I shall be hoovering up the juicy odds accordingly.
Brave call to expect the LibDems to do well in Wales ;-)
Relentless "this man is useless" coverage by the media will ignite the Brits' instinctive affection for the underdog and result in an EdM bounce.
I mean even I'm getting sick of it as it's beginning to look like bullying.
Just like the patriotism error (by the media) - policies: yes, the man: no.
North Norfolk will be held because of Norman Lamb as Iain Dale found to his cost, just as many other LibDem seats will be held.
Norfolk may or may not like the yellow peril but they certainly like Stormin Norman just as they like Farron in Westmoreland or Charlie Kennedy in Ross.
http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/05/shock-result-in-eastleigh/
Everyone is welcome to scoff at my lunacy next May
7-2 Eastleigh UKIP
5-2 Bradford West Galloway.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/10909618/Rachel-Riley-Strictly-magnified-the-fault-lines-in-my-marriage.html
Sadly this internet version does not feature the glorious pic of her contained in the hard copy of the newspaper.
* FWIW, I'm responsible for the economically dry/socially liberal group and the moderate Eurosceptics, while my father looks after the centrist/wet Tories.
That prediction went well .... NOT
Fortunately for us political punters, the local election results in 2011, '12, '13, and '14 had very similar LibDem NEV shares, i.e. 12-14%. So we can just take last election results and extrapolate local strength from that.
Still strong locally (i.e. won the latest round of locals):
Portsmouth South
Sheffield Hallam
Sutton & Cheam
Eastleigh
Cheadle
Westmoreland
Yeovil
Bath
Mixed locally (i.e., significant presence but have declined):
Kingston
Hornsey & Wood Green
Twickenham
North Norfolk
Leeds NW
Wiped out locally:
Brent East
The (non Scottish) locals are better for the Libs that I'd thought. I hold by my high 20s to low 30s seats on a low teens share of the vote.
It strikes me as a decent poll for the Liberals, all things considered.
That could have worked both ways. Were respondents in Mid Dorset or Somerset and Frome aware that their LD MP is standing down in each case, or did they assume that they could still vote for their current MP?
The constituency question asked this early also gives the incumbent an advantage over the challengers, because most people won't yet be aware of who the challengers are.
vs
Austria won Eurovision
I think it was you who posted the Croydon rave story earlier.
I never expected to read this in a magazine:
Friends later told him that a "bunch of stoners found [his] little finger and were playing catch with it."
That you wouldn't accept the opportunity to meet a political opponent is saddening.
Well ok yes but we've still to play them in what could be a dead rubber... 0 pts is possible, nay probable.
Wimbledon draw is announced tomorrow.
Even if you think someone is wrong, to give the impression of not being willing to listen is a mistake. It's impolite for one thing. (FWIW, she's an SDP supporter, who votes Tory sometimes - SDP/Alliance(?) in 1983 and 1987, Kinnock in 1992, Blair in 1997 and 2001, Kennedy in 2005, Tory in 2010), so exactly the sort of person Cameron should want to appeal to.
Plenty of legitimate bases for attacking Labour but attacking the leader over the way he eats a bacon sandwich is pathetic.
http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2014/6/15960.html
Hope nothing changes, given I've put a little on Massa being winner without Hamilton/Rosberg (each way).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8874
Note this point:
Take the UKIP scores with a slight pinch of salt because the timing of the fieldwork (it was mostly done during or in the fortnight following the European elections, so when UKIP were on a bit of a publicity high), but it’s another potential pointer as to where they could do well.
I'm inclined to start from the assumption that they will do equally well or badly. What do others think?
However lest PBers of an English persuasion begin early celebrations it should be noted my football forecasting prowess is somewhat less than stellar ....
I'm sure that helped steady some nerves ....
Foot, Kinnock, Smith, Blair, Brown and the Miliband have left us with no option but to vote Tory to keep the country intact and the lazy and workshy on their toes.
So, sure, if he wants to spend an evening listening to someone tell him why he is a disgrace and his party foul, wicked, introverted, biased and full of traitors then so be it. However, I imagine he would rather spend the time trying to eat soup with a fork.
"People sometimes think that the SDP was founded on some issue of principle: opposition to nationalisation, or to unilateral nuclear disarmament or some such. In fact, it was created because the Labour Party wanted to make incumbent MPs subject to reselection by party members.
Suddenly, the high-minded Liberals were overwhelmed by a horde of petty, calculating careerists. The remaining heirs of the Whig tradition broke away under Michael Meadowcroft, and still hold several council seats under their old name, the Liberal Party, mainly in Merseyside. The rest of the party became what it is today: a tricksy, self-righteous alliance of convenience, prepared to say whatever local people want to hear."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100273875/the-lib-dems-are-finished-a-squalid-end-for-the-heirs-of-the-greatest-party-in-history/
Con 34
Lab 33
LD 11
UKIP 13
Ed Miliband PM of minority administration. C&S from Lib Dems...
Both equally recovering would be a decent assumption. Lib Dems perhaps a smidgen more ?
ADDED: it all started with Dick Taverne, of course.