Back to British politics for a change and a possible threat to Boris – politicalbetting.com

TimT said:

another_richard said:

UK vaccinations

11/01 166,474
12/01 223,726
13/01 288,688

England vaccinations

11/01 140,441
12/01 187,645
13/01 248,177

Northern Ireland vaccinations

11/01 7,521
12/01 9,782
13/01 12,454

Scotland vaccinations

11/01 12,664
12/01 16,156
13/01 16,442

Wales vaccinations

11/01 5,218
12/01 10,143
13/01 11,615

Hopefully today's snow will not have affected things much.

So at that daily rate of increase, tomorrow we should be at the daily rate required to hit government targets, no?

rottenborough said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

Knighthoods for everyone involved if that is the case.

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

We ain't seen the bill yet, either financially, or on the NHS.

"So, Foxy, the D Day Landings were a success, and while there's a long hard march to Berlin, with many troubles ahead of us, we can now look to the end of the War."

"Bah, don't be too optimistic. We may have beaten the Germans, but we've still massive debts and the country's industrial capacity and housing stock have been hammered. It's dark days ahead."

[Not Long Later]

"You've never had it so good."

15 years later...

TimT said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

isam said:

The Crown s4... Gillian Anderson’s Maggie is pretty ridiculous isn’t it?

It's a really unrealistic portrayal. She seems almost human in places.

LOLs.

To me it was an actresses overplaying a cartoon character version of a person drawn from folk mythology of the real thing, while very self-consciously thinking she was delivering an Oscar-worthy performance.

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Some may remember my header on population changes before Christmas. It is possible that I may have underestimated emigration.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1349839092582903812?s=19

Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",

Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home

The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used

- overwhelmingly foreign workers
- pay by the hour

So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.

So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Some may remember my header on population changes before Christmas. It is possible that I may have underestimated emigration.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1349839092582903812?s=19

Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",

Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home

The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used

- overwhelmingly foreign workers
- pay by the hour

So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.

So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.

Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places

Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?

That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc

To get that figure, the first 2 weeks after the first injection are ignored, and the week after the second injection added in, so based on very small numbers. The Confidence Intervals are high, and we do not know yet how long the immunity lasts. The AZN vaccine is noticeably lower protection after the first dose.

We should know by the end of Feb how reliable a single dose is, particularly in the elderly, who do mount a more feeble response to vaccines in general.

If the gamble comes off, plaudits all round, but if it doesn't...

Informative, thankyou. I believe the gamble is justified. This is a war, and in war you have to balance one evil against another, worse outcome

We know that there is a real problem of poor response to immunisation from single dose vaccines in the elderly, a group that barely featured in the AZN studies. A booster vaccine greatly improves efficacy:

https://immunityageing.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12979-019-0164-9

TimT said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

isam said:

The Crown s4... Gillian Anderson’s Maggie is pretty ridiculous isn’t it?

It's a really unrealistic portrayal. She seems almost human in places.

LOLs.

To me it was an actresses overplaying a cartoon character version of a person drawn from folk mythology of the real thing, while very self-consciously thinking she was delivering an Oscar-worthy performance.

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?

That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc

To get that figure, the first 2 weeks after the first injection are ignored, and the week after the second injection added in, so based on very small numbers. The Confidence Intervals are high, and we do not know yet how long the immunity lasts. The AZN vaccine is noticeably lower protection after the first dose.

We should know by the end of Feb how reliable a single dose is, particularly in the elderly, who do mount a more feeble response to vaccines in general.

If the gamble comes off, plaudits all round, but if it doesn't...

Informative, thankyou. I believe the gamble is justified. This is a war, and in war you have to balance one evil against another, worse outcome

We know that there is a real problem of poor response to immunisation from single dose vaccines in the elderly, a group that barely featured in the AZN studies. A booster vaccine greatly improves efficacy:

https://immunityageing.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12979-019-0164-9

So, would you have done differently? Stuck to the original, two dose plan, thus depriving millions of a quick first dose?

bigjohnowls said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1349831508870180864

Oh wow, Brexit turns out to be all about tearing up workers' rights. Who could have predicted that?

Makes no difference to the Pensioners and "dole scum" who voted for it.

My stepson who has never done a days work in the last 20 yrs and has 10 kids with his various partners of the same ilk tweeted "Independence Day" on 1.1.21

Its the people paying his benefits who will be hardest hit

Foxy said:

Mary_Batty said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Some may remember my header on population changes before Christmas. It is possible that I may have underestimated emigration.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1349839092582903812?s=19

Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",

Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home

The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used

- overwhelmingly foreign workers
- pay by the hour

So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.

So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.

The question follows:
what happens when things get back to normal? Not going to be that easy for these people to come back, will it?

A lot will have established right of residence, but I suspect that there won't be great numbers exercising that right.

solarflare said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.

But hopefully it's not like that.

Mary_Batty said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?

That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc

To get that figure, the first 2 weeks after the first injection are ignored, and the week after the second injection added in, so based on very small numbers. The Confidence Intervals are high, and we do not know yet how long the immunity lasts. The AZN vaccine is noticeably lower protection after the first dose.

We should know by the end of Feb how reliable a single dose is, particularly in the elderly, who do mount a more feeble response to vaccines in general.

If the gamble comes off, plaudits all round, but if it doesn't...

Informative, thankyou. I believe the gamble is justified. This is a war, and in war you have to balance one evil against another, worse outcome

We know that there is a real problem of poor response to immunisation from single dose vaccines in the elderly, a group that barely featured in the AZN studies. A booster vaccine greatly improves efficacy:

https://immunityageing.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12979-019-0164-9

So, would you have done differently? Stuck to the original, two dose plan, thus depriving millions of a quick first dose?

According to this week's Spectator TV on Youtube, Israel, which leads the world in vaccination so far, is using the two dose plan. Get jab number one and an appointment card for the second.

(And the Israeli interviewee emphasised the data provided to Pfizer rather than the cash, btw.)

Oh no don't start him off on Pfizer and Israel again. I can't handle a second dose of the wink-wink-nudge-nudge Jewish-state-capitalism-preferential-access bollocks. Really surprised he's showed his face again after the towering shame of that little outburst.

Mary_Batty said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Some may remember my header on population changes before Christmas. It is possible that I may have underestimated emigration.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1349839092582903812?s=19

Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",

Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home

The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used

- overwhelmingly foreign workers
- pay by the hour

So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.

So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.

Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places

Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows

Estimate is 700k...

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349844279175348224?s=19

Population SHRINKS During Black Death Shocker

The Daily Mail, March 3rd, 1349

HURRAH For the Black Death! you mean

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

We ain't seen the bill yet, either financially, or on the NHS.

"So, Foxy, the D Day Landings were a success, and while there's a long hard march to Berlin, with many troubles ahead of us, we can now look to the end of the War."

"Bah, don't be too optimistic. We may have beaten the Germans, but we've still massive debts and the country's industrial capacity and housing stock have been hammered. It's dark days ahead."

[Not Long Later]

"You've never had it so good."

15 years later...

Exactly!

Just fifteen short years later. You remember 15 years ago like it was yesterday, right?

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Mary_Batty said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Some may remember my header on population changes before Christmas. It is possible that I may have underestimated emigration.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1349839092582903812?s=19

Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",

Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home

The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used

- overwhelmingly foreign workers
- pay by the hour

So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.

So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.

The question follows:
what happens when things get back to normal? Not going to be that easy for these people to come back, will it?

A lot will have established right of residence, but I suspect that there won't be great numbers exercising that right.

The question the is where will the employment be? The structural employment issues in various European countries that caused the emigration of large numbers of young people here have not changed.

Anabobazina said:

kle4 said:

TimT said:

another_richard said:

UK vaccinations

11/01 166,474
12/01 223,726
13/01 288,688

England vaccinations

11/01 140,441
12/01 187,645
13/01 248,177

Northern Ireland vaccinations

11/01 7,521
12/01 9,782
13/01 12,454

Scotland vaccinations

11/01 12,664
12/01 16,156
13/01 16,442

Wales vaccinations

11/01 5,218
12/01 10,143
13/01 11,615

Hopefully today's snow will not have affected things much.

So at that daily rate of increase, tomorrow we should be at the daily rate required to hit government targets, no?

It increasing every day doesn't seem a given. But given how they are now ramping up expectations even further on the per day rate, it does seem like they are very confident that the initial target will be met.

Jon Ashworth on QT reckons the government will meet the Valentine’s Day target, FWIW

londonpubman said:

Anabobazina said:

solarflare said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.

But hopefully it's not like that.

There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.

Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March

Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be:
- schools back Mid March
- Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3'
- pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.

But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?

That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc

To get that figure, the first 2 weeks after the first injection are ignored, and the week after the second injection added in, so based on very small numbers. The Confidence Intervals are high, and we do not know yet how long the immunity lasts. The AZN vaccine is noticeably lower protection after the first dose.

We should know by the end of Feb how reliable a single dose is, particularly in the elderly, who do mount a more feeble response to vaccines in general.

If the gamble comes off, plaudits all round, but if it doesn't...

Informative, thankyou. I believe the gamble is justified. This is a war, and in war you have to balance one evil against another, worse outcome

We know that there is a real problem of poor response to immunisation from single dose vaccines in the elderly, a group that barely featured in the AZN studies. A booster vaccine greatly improves efficacy:

https://immunityageing.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12979-019-0164-9

So, would you have done differently? Stuck to the original, two dose plan, thus depriving millions of a quick first dose?

rcs1000 said:

Anabobazina said:

solarflare said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.

But hopefully it's not like that.

There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.

It'll be a gradual loosening.

Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3.
By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.

Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

We ain't seen the bill yet, either financially, or on the NHS.

"So, Foxy, the D Day Landings were a success, and while there's a long hard march to Berlin, with many troubles ahead of us, we can now look to the end of the War."

"Bah, don't be too optimistic. We may have beaten the Germans, but we've still massive debts and the country's industrial capacity and housing stock have been hammered. It's dark days ahead."

[Not Long Later]

"You've never had it so good."

15 years later...

Exactly!

Just fifteen short years later. You remember 15 years ago like it was yesterday, right?

I do, but that is because I am old!

I cannot say that I relish my remaining decade of working life being dominated by the fallout of covid and Brexit. If it wasn't for family, the antipodes would beckon.

Come on, the after war years weren't that bad. There was a couple of years of austerity, but once you got to the 1950s, the British economy was moving pretty nicely.

There's a lot of ruin in a nation.

londonpubman said:

Anabobazina said:

solarflare said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.

But hopefully it's not like that.

There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.

Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March

Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be:
- schools back Mid March
- Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3'
- pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.

But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.

Theuniondivvie said:

Whisky Galore on BBC4 just now, probably one of the last expressions of authentic cultural Unionism. Only a little bit patronising but affectionately so, and the prototype Captain Mainwaring gets it ripped out of him more than anyone.

Mortimer said:

Anabobazina said:

kle4 said:

TimT said:

another_richard said:

UK vaccinations

11/01 166,474
12/01 223,726
13/01 288,688

England vaccinations

11/01 140,441
12/01 187,645
13/01 248,177

Northern Ireland vaccinations

11/01 7,521
12/01 9,782
13/01 12,454

Scotland vaccinations

11/01 12,664
12/01 16,156
13/01 16,442

Wales vaccinations

11/01 5,218
12/01 10,143
13/01 11,615

Hopefully today's snow will not have affected things much.

So at that daily rate of increase, tomorrow we should be at the daily rate required to hit government targets, no?

It increasing every day doesn't seem a given. But given how they are now ramping up expectations even further on the per day rate, it does seem like they are very confident that the initial target will be met.

Jon Ashworth on QT reckons the government will meet the Valentine’s Day target, FWIW

When you break it down to jabs per GP surgery per day, it has never seemed an unreasonable target.

I am just baffled by how slow most of Europe is being.

Are Germany still vaccinating a few hundred people a day?

rcs1000 said:

Anabobazina said:

solarflare said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.

But hopefully it's not like that.

There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.

It'll be a gradual loosening.

Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3.
By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.

Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.

Mortimer said:

another_richard said:

londonpubman said:

Anabobazina said:

solarflare said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.

But hopefully it's not like that.

There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.

Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March

Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be:
- schools back Mid March
- Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3'
- pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.

But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.

I would hope gyms open much sooner than that.

They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.

Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

I am baffled by the 'open gyms' brigade. Almost as much as the 'supermarkets are plague pits' brigade.

The one place I really wouldn't want to be is indoors with loads of people huffing and puffing.

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Some may remember my header on population changes before Christmas. It is possible that I may have underestimated emigration.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1349839092582903812?s=19

Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",

Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home

The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used

- overwhelmingly foreign workers
- pay by the hour

So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.

So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.

Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places

Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows

Estimate is 700k...

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349844279175348224?s=19

Population SHRINKS During Black Death Shocker

The Daily Mail, March 3rd, 1349

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

TOWIE STAR WAITS TEN MINUTES FOR SKINNY LATTE

As bubonic plague ravages London, killing 49% of all workers

The Daily Express, June 3rd, 1350

That's a fake. A Daily Express front page not mentioning Princess Diana?

MarqueeMark said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Some may remember my header on population changes before Christmas. It is possible that I may have underestimated emigration.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1349839092582903812?s=19

Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",

Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home

The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used

- overwhelmingly foreign workers
- pay by the hour

So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.

So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.

Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places

Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows

Estimate is 700k...

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349844279175348224?s=19

Population SHRINKS During Black Death Shocker

The Daily Mail, March 3rd, 1349

700,000 from London should mean it loses - what? 8 Westminster seats?

Mortimer said:

another_richard said:

londonpubman said:

Anabobazina said:

solarflare said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.

But hopefully it's not like that.

There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.

Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March

Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be:
- schools back Mid March
- Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3'
- pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.

But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.

I would hope gyms open much sooner than that.

They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.

Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

I am baffled by the 'open gyms' brigade. Almost as much as the 'supermarkets are plague pits' brigade.

The one place I really wouldn't want to be is indoors with loads of people huffing and puffing.

isam said:

Mortimer said:

another_richard said:

londonpubman said:

Anabobazina said:

solarflare said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.

But hopefully it's not like that.

There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.

Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March

Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be:
- schools back Mid March
- Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3'
- pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.

But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.

I would hope gyms open much sooner than that.

They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.

Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

I am baffled by the 'open gyms' brigade. Almost as much as the 'supermarkets are plague pits' brigade.

The one place I really wouldn't want to be is indoors with loads of people huffing and puffing.

I had a bad dream last night that I was in a noisy pub where people were singing & shouting with no regard for Covid safety protocol! What a sap!!!

Mortimer said:

LostPassword said:

rcs1000 said:

Anabobazina said:

solarflare said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.

But hopefully it's not like that.

There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.

It'll be a gradual loosening.

Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3.
By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.

Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.

That's optimistic.

In wave one it took 33 days for the numbers in hospital to fall below 50% of the peak.

Vaccinations will speed it up, but Cockney Covid makes it harder, the restrictions are looser and we aren't benefiting from spring. And we haven't peaked yet.

I'd be surprised if hospital numbers are below the wave one peak by mid-February. Will they loosen restrictions with hospital numbers still that high?

It will be interesting to see if they go 3 but schools closed, or open the schools but stay at 4.

MarqueeMark said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Whisky Galore on BBC4 just now, probably one of the last expressions of authentic cultural Unionism. Only a little bit patronising but affectionately so, and the prototype Captain Mainwaring gets it ripped out of him more than anyone.

Filmed on Barra.

Aye, it’s the last biggish Hebridean island I’ve still to visit.

An irony is that the film location Barra and historical setting Eriskay were largely Catholic so observance of the Sabbath which plays a part in the plot wasn’t actually such a big deal.

Hoping to get my holiday on Barra this autumn - usually a group of us take a house every other year. Scuppered last year. The rare migrant birds funnel down the Outer Hebs and end up in about four patches of trees on the island....so we drive around, checking them out each day. Not had huge luck, but I did find a Melodious Warbler - only about the second seen in the Outer Hebs.

I was there on Referendum Day in 2014, on the basis that if Scotland went Yes, there would be one hell of a party...(they did vote Yes there, but it was more of a wake....)

rcs1000 said:

LostPassword said:

rcs1000 said:

Anabobazina said:

solarflare said:

rcs1000 said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.

I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.

Basically: cheer up man!

I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.

But hopefully it's not like that.

There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.

It'll be a gradual loosening.

Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3.
By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.

Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.

That's optimistic.

In wave one it took 33 days for the numbers in hospital to fall below 50% of the peak.

Vaccinations will speed it up, but Cockney Covid makes it harder, the restrictions are looser and we aren't benefiting from spring. And we haven't peaked yet.

I'd be surprised if hospital numbers are below the wave one peak by mid-February. Will they loosen restrictions with hospital numbers still that high?

Hang on; we're seeing case numbers start to move down now. This will flow into admissions. If it takes 33 days for "in hospital" to halve, then that's about the 20th of February.

Now, maybe they'll want the numbers in hospital to decline further, but 38-40 days from now, even at just 400k a day, is still 16 million people having had at least one dose, and the case numbers will have come down fairly sharply with lockdown.

I think some loosening is inevitable at that point.

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

All over 50s done by end March!!!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349845527236587520/photo/1

If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.

As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...

As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?

That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc

Yes... but don't forget that 80% of the doses we're going to be giving out in the next few months will be AZN, which is much mess efficacious.

That is uncertain. As I understand it. Oxford-AZ's efficacy is "good", it may be "very good". We don't know yet

Both the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) have c. 95% efficacy. The adenovirus vaccines, whether Chinese, Russian or British appear to be in the low 60s to the mid 80s. That's not awful, but it is substantially less than with Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.

If I were paying up, I know which one I'd rather get.

If Oxford-AZ turns out to be mid 80s then yay. Low 60s, meh. We don't know yet, surely. Their testing was a bit pff

A 60% vaccine that is piss easy to store and distribute is great to have at this stage in the game.

Anabobazina said:

isam said:

The Crown s4... Gillian Anderson’s Maggie is pretty ridiculous isn’t it?

I managed about three minutes. I love Gillian Anderson normally but that Thatcher voice/character is just unbearable. Awful overacting. Absolutely risible.