If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
We ain't seen the bill yet, either financially, or on the NHS.
"So, Foxy, the D Day Landings were a success, and while there's a long hard march to Berlin, with many troubles ahead of us, we can now look to the end of the War."
"Bah, don't be too optimistic. We may have beaten the Germans, but we've still massive debts and the country's industrial capacity and housing stock have been hammered. It's dark days ahead."
Oh wow, Brexit turns out to be all about tearing up workers' rights. Who could have predicted that?
Makes no difference to the Pensioners and "dole scum" who voted for it.
My stepson who has never done a days work in the last 20 yrs and has 10 kids with his various partners of the same ilk tweeted "Independence Day" on 1.1.21
Its the people paying his benefits who will be hardest hit
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
We ain't seen the bill yet, either financially, or on the NHS.
"So, Foxy, the D Day Landings were a success, and while there's a long hard march to Berlin, with many troubles ahead of us, we can now look to the end of the War."
"Bah, don't be too optimistic. We may have beaten the Germans, but we've still massive debts and the country's industrial capacity and housing stock have been hammered. It's dark days ahead."
[Not Long Later]
"You've never had it so good."
15 years later...
Exactly!
Just fifteen short years later. You remember 15 years ago like it was yesterday, right?
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
My stepson who has never done a days work in the last 20 yrs and has 10 kids with his various partners of the same ilk tweeted "Independence Day" on 1.1.21
The Crown s4... Gillian Anderson’s Maggie is pretty ridiculous isn’t it?
It's a really unrealistic portrayal. She seems almost human in places.
LOLs.
To me it was an actresses overplaying a cartoon character version of a person drawn from folk mythology of the real thing, while very self-consciously thinking she was delivering an Oscar-worthy performance.
Was it better than The Iron Lady? I remember the performance being ok, but the film was pretty bad.
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places
Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows
Hopefully today's snow will not have affected things much.
So at that daily rate of increase, tomorrow we should be at the daily rate required to hit government targets, no?
It increasing every day doesn't seem a given. But given how they are now ramping up expectations even further on the per day rate, it does seem like they are very confident that the initial target will be met.
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places
Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
The question follows: what happens when things get back to normal? Not going to be that easy for these people to come back, will it?
A lot will have established right of residence, but I suspect that there won't be great numbers exercising that right.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?
That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc
To get that figure, the first 2 weeks after the first injection are ignored, and the week after the second injection added in, so based on very small numbers. The Confidence Intervals are high, and we do not know yet how long the immunity lasts. The AZN vaccine is noticeably lower protection after the first dose.
We should know by the end of Feb how reliable a single dose is, particularly in the elderly, who do mount a more feeble response to vaccines in general.
If the gamble comes off, plaudits all round, but if it doesn't...
Informative, thankyou. I believe the gamble is justified. This is a war, and in war you have to balance one evil against another, worse outcome
We know that there is a real problem of poor response to immunisation from single dose vaccines in the elderly, a group that barely featured in the AZN studies. A booster vaccine greatly improves efficacy:
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
I agree, but losing a million young workers (if their figures are credible) is quite a mass migration.
The Crown s4... Gillian Anderson’s Maggie is pretty ridiculous isn’t it?
It's a really unrealistic portrayal. She seems almost human in places.
LOLs.
To me it was an actresses overplaying a cartoon character version of a person drawn from folk mythology of the real thing, while very self-consciously thinking she was delivering an Oscar-worthy performance.
I haven’t seen it, but I used to get much the same vibe listening to Thatcher herself.
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places
Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?
That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc
To get that figure, the first 2 weeks after the first injection are ignored, and the week after the second injection added in, so based on very small numbers. The Confidence Intervals are high, and we do not know yet how long the immunity lasts. The AZN vaccine is noticeably lower protection after the first dose.
We should know by the end of Feb how reliable a single dose is, particularly in the elderly, who do mount a more feeble response to vaccines in general.
If the gamble comes off, plaudits all round, but if it doesn't...
Informative, thankyou. I believe the gamble is justified. This is a war, and in war you have to balance one evil against another, worse outcome
We know that there is a real problem of poor response to immunisation from single dose vaccines in the elderly, a group that barely featured in the AZN studies. A booster vaccine greatly improves efficacy:
So, would you have done differently? Stuck to the original, two dose plan, thus depriving millions of a quick first dose?
According to this week's Spectator TV on Youtube, Israel, which leads the world in vaccination so far, is using the two dose plan. Get jab number one and an appointment card for the second.
(And the Israeli interviewee emphasised the data provided to Pfizer rather than the cash, btw.)
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places
Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows
Oh wow, Brexit turns out to be all about tearing up workers' rights. Who could have predicted that?
Makes no difference to the Pensioners and "dole scum" who voted for it.
My stepson who has never done a days work in the last 20 yrs and has 10 kids with his various partners of the same ilk tweeted "Independence Day" on 1.1.21
Its the people paying his benefits who will be hardest hit
He sounds like the type of person Ben Bradley gets excited about.
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
I agree, but losing a million young workers (if their figures are credible) is quite a mass migration.
Yes, it is. But perhaps it is needed. England is almost the most crowded nation on earth.
Cheaper rent and affordable housing will be good things.
And yes we have lost quite a lot of young people, but we've also killed 100,000s of oldsters, who will continue to die off in future winters.
Perhaps this was Gaia's plan all along. A rebalancing.
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
The question follows: what happens when things get back to normal? Not going to be that easy for these people to come back, will it?
A lot will have established right of residence, but I suspect that there won't be great numbers exercising that right.
The question the is where will the employment be? The structural employment issues in various European countries that caused the emigration of large numbers of young people here have not changed.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?
That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc
To get that figure, the first 2 weeks after the first injection are ignored, and the week after the second injection added in, so based on very small numbers. The Confidence Intervals are high, and we do not know yet how long the immunity lasts. The AZN vaccine is noticeably lower protection after the first dose.
We should know by the end of Feb how reliable a single dose is, particularly in the elderly, who do mount a more feeble response to vaccines in general.
If the gamble comes off, plaudits all round, but if it doesn't...
Informative, thankyou. I believe the gamble is justified. This is a war, and in war you have to balance one evil against another, worse outcome
We know that there is a real problem of poor response to immunisation from single dose vaccines in the elderly, a group that barely featured in the AZN studies. A booster vaccine greatly improves efficacy:
So, would you have done differently? Stuck to the original, two dose plan, thus depriving millions of a quick first dose?
According to this week's Spectator TV on Youtube, Israel, which leads the world in vaccination so far, is using the two dose plan. Get jab number one and an appointment card for the second.
(And the Israeli interviewee emphasised the data provided to Pfizer rather than the cash, btw.)
Oh no don't start him off on Pfizer and Israel again. I can't handle a second dose of the wink-wink-nudge-nudge Jewish-state-capitalism-preferential-access bollocks. Really surprised he's showed his face again after the towering shame of that little outburst.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?
That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc
To get that figure, the first 2 weeks after the first injection are ignored, and the week after the second injection added in, so based on very small numbers. The Confidence Intervals are high, and we do not know yet how long the immunity lasts. The AZN vaccine is noticeably lower protection after the first dose.
We should know by the end of Feb how reliable a single dose is, particularly in the elderly, who do mount a more feeble response to vaccines in general.
If the gamble comes off, plaudits all round, but if it doesn't...
Informative, thankyou. I believe the gamble is justified. This is a war, and in war you have to balance one evil against another, worse outcome
We know that there is a real problem of poor response to immunisation from single dose vaccines in the elderly, a group that barely featured in the AZN studies. A booster vaccine greatly improves efficacy:
So, would you have done differently? Stuck to the original, two dose plan, thus depriving millions of a quick first dose?
According to this week's Spectator TV on Youtube, Israel, which leads the world in vaccination so far, is using the two dose plan. Get jab number one and an appointment card for the second.
(And the Israeli interviewee emphasised the data provided to Pfizer rather than the cash, btw.)
Oh no don't start him off on Pfizer and Israel again. I can't handle a second dose of the wink-wink-nudge-nudge Jewish-state-capitalism-preferential-access bollocks. Really surprised he's showed his face again after the towering shame of that little outburst.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
It'll be a gradual loosening.
Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3. By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.
Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places
Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March
Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be: - schools back Mid March - Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3' - pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.
But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
We ain't seen the bill yet, either financially, or on the NHS.
"So, Foxy, the D Day Landings were a success, and while there's a long hard march to Berlin, with many troubles ahead of us, we can now look to the end of the War."
"Bah, don't be too optimistic. We may have beaten the Germans, but we've still massive debts and the country's industrial capacity and housing stock have been hammered. It's dark days ahead."
[Not Long Later]
"You've never had it so good."
15 years later...
Exactly!
Just fifteen short years later. You remember 15 years ago like it was yesterday, right?
I do, but that is because I am old!
I cannot say that I relish my remaining decade of working life being dominated by the fallout of covid and Brexit. If it wasn't for family, the antipodes would beckon.
Hopefully today's snow will not have affected things much.
So at that daily rate of increase, tomorrow we should be at the daily rate required to hit government targets, no?
It increasing every day doesn't seem a given. But given how they are now ramping up expectations even further on the per day rate, it does seem like they are very confident that the initial target will be met.
Jon Ashworth on QT reckons the government will meet the Valentine’s Day target, FWIW
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
The question follows: what happens when things get back to normal? Not going to be that easy for these people to come back, will it?
A lot will have established right of residence, but I suspect that there won't be great numbers exercising that right.
The question the is where will the employment be? The structural employment issues in various European countries that caused the emigration of large numbers of young people here have not changed.
Actually the position has changed. The Polish economy has grown significantly, and of course the devaluation of Sterling doesn't help encourage returners.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
We ain't seen the bill yet, either financially, or on the NHS.
"So, Foxy, the D Day Landings were a success, and while there's a long hard march to Berlin, with many troubles ahead of us, we can now look to the end of the War."
"Bah, don't be too optimistic. We may have beaten the Germans, but we've still massive debts and the country's industrial capacity and housing stock have been hammered. It's dark days ahead."
[Not Long Later]
"You've never had it so good."
15 years later...
Exactly!
Just fifteen short years later. You remember 15 years ago like it was yesterday, right?
I do, but that is because I am old!
I cannot say that I relish my remaining decade of working life being dominated by the fallout of covid and Brexit. If it wasn't for family, the antipodes would beckon.
Come on, the after war years weren't that bad. There was a couple of years of austerity, but once you got to the 1950s, the British economy was moving pretty nicely.
Hopefully today's snow will not have affected things much.
So at that daily rate of increase, tomorrow we should be at the daily rate required to hit government targets, no?
It increasing every day doesn't seem a given. But given how they are now ramping up expectations even further on the per day rate, it does seem like they are very confident that the initial target will be met.
Jon Ashworth on QT reckons the government will meet the Valentine’s Day target, FWIW
When you break it down to jabs per GP surgery per day, it has never seemed an unreasonable target.
I am just baffled by how slow most of Europe is being.
Are Germany still vaccinating a few hundred people a day?
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March
Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be: - schools back Mid March - Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3' - pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.
But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
The question follows: what happens when things get back to normal? Not going to be that easy for these people to come back, will it?
A lot will have established right of residence, but I suspect that there won't be great numbers exercising that right.
The question the is where will the employment be? The structural employment issues in various European countries that caused the emigration of large numbers of young people here have not changed.
Actually the position has changed. The Polish economy has grown significantly, and of course the devaluation of Sterling doesn't help encourage returners.
The Polish economy is has issues - and the current government isn't exactly an incentive to stay there for my Polish friends. Despite devaluation, the attraction of earning money in a high GDP economy remains.
Structural employment issues are still widespread through Spain and France, to name but two...
The question is - where will the work be? The reason that so many young people ended up in the UK In the first place was that their home countries were not creating jobs for them.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?
That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc
To get that figure, the first 2 weeks after the first injection are ignored, and the week after the second injection added in, so based on very small numbers. The Confidence Intervals are high, and we do not know yet how long the immunity lasts. The AZN vaccine is noticeably lower protection after the first dose.
We should know by the end of Feb how reliable a single dose is, particularly in the elderly, who do mount a more feeble response to vaccines in general.
If the gamble comes off, plaudits all round, but if it doesn't...
Informative, thankyou. I believe the gamble is justified. This is a war, and in war you have to balance one evil against another, worse outcome
We know that there is a real problem of poor response to immunisation from single dose vaccines in the elderly, a group that barely featured in the AZN studies. A booster vaccine greatly improves efficacy:
Hopefully today's snow will not have affected things much.
So at that daily rate of increase, tomorrow we should be at the daily rate required to hit government targets, no?
It increasing every day doesn't seem a given. But given how they are now ramping up expectations even further on the per day rate, it does seem like they are very confident that the initial target will be met.
Jon Ashworth on QT reckons the government will meet the Valentine’s Day target, FWIW
When you break it down to jabs per GP surgery per day, it has never seemed an unreasonable target.
I am just baffled by how slow most of Europe is being.
Are Germany still vaccinating a few hundred people a day?
Whisky Galore on BBC4 just now, probably one of the last expressions of authentic cultural Unionism. Only a little bit patronising but affectionately so, and the prototype Captain Mainwaring gets it ripped out of him more than anyone.
Hopefully today's snow will not have affected things much.
So at that daily rate of increase, tomorrow we should be at the daily rate required to hit government targets, no?
It increasing every day doesn't seem a given. But given how they are now ramping up expectations even further on the per day rate, it does seem like they are very confident that the initial target will be met.
Jon Ashworth on QT reckons the government will meet the Valentine’s Day target, FWIW
When you break it down to jabs per GP surgery per day, it has never seemed an unreasonable target.
I am just baffled by how slow most of Europe is being.
Are Germany still vaccinating a few hundred people a day?
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
It'll be a gradual loosening.
Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3. By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.
Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.
I hope, and think, you might be right Robert.
Need to buckle down and get through what’s left of winter.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
We ain't seen the bill yet, either financially, or on the NHS.
"So, Foxy, the D Day Landings were a success, and while there's a long hard march to Berlin, with many troubles ahead of us, we can now look to the end of the War."
"Bah, don't be too optimistic. We may have beaten the Germans, but we've still massive debts and the country's industrial capacity and housing stock have been hammered. It's dark days ahead."
[Not Long Later]
"You've never had it so good."
15 years later...
Exactly!
Just fifteen short years later. You remember 15 years ago like it was yesterday, right?
I do, but that is because I am old!
I cannot say that I relish my remaining decade of working life being dominated by the fallout of covid and Brexit. If it wasn't for family, the antipodes would beckon.
Come on, the after war years weren't that bad. There was a couple of years of austerity, but once you got to the 1950s, the British economy was moving pretty nicely.
There's a lot of ruin in a nation.
This graph is always good to startle people with -
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March
Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be: - schools back Mid March - Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3' - pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.
But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.
I would hope gyms open much sooner than that.
They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.
Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':
Oh wow, Brexit turns out to be all about tearing up workers' rights. Who could have predicted that?
Makes no difference to the Pensioners and "dole scum" who voted for it.
My stepson who has never done a days work in the last 20 yrs and has 10 kids with his various partners of the same ilk tweeted "Independence Day" on 1.1.21
Its the people paying his benefits who will be hardest hit
He sounds like the type of person Ben Bradley gets excited about.
Whisky Galore on BBC4 just now, probably one of the last expressions of authentic cultural Unionism. Only a little bit patronising but affectionately so, and the prototype Captain Mainwaring gets it ripped out of him more than anyone.
Hopefully today's snow will not have affected things much.
So at that daily rate of increase, tomorrow we should be at the daily rate required to hit government targets, no?
It increasing every day doesn't seem a given. But given how they are now ramping up expectations even further on the per day rate, it does seem like they are very confident that the initial target will be met.
Jon Ashworth on QT reckons the government will meet the Valentine’s Day target, FWIW
When you break it down to jabs per GP surgery per day, it has never seemed an unreasonable target.
I am just baffled by how slow most of Europe is being.
Are Germany still vaccinating a few hundred people a day?
The European situation is deeply worrying and quite unfathomable. I have been amazed by how many PBers are seemingly comfortable with it.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March
Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be: - schools back Mid March - Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3' - pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.
But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.
I would hope gyms open much sooner than that.
They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.
Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
It'll be a gradual loosening.
Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3. By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.
Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.
That's optimistic.
In wave one it took 33 days for the numbers in hospital to fall below 50% of the peak.
Vaccinations will speed it up, but Cockney Covid makes it harder, the restrictions are looser and we aren't benefiting from spring. And we haven't peaked yet.
I'd be surprised if hospital numbers are below the wave one peak by mid-February. Will they loosen restrictions with hospital numbers still that high?
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March
Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be: - schools back Mid March - Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3' - pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.
But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.
I would hope gyms open much sooner than that.
They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.
Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March
Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be: - schools back Mid March - Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3' - pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.
But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.
I would hope gyms open much sooner than that.
They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.
Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places
Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
It'll be a gradual loosening.
Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3. By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.
Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.
That's optimistic.
In wave one it took 33 days for the numbers in hospital to fall below 50% of the peak.
Vaccinations will speed it up, but Cockney Covid makes it harder, the restrictions are looser and we aren't benefiting from spring. And we haven't peaked yet.
I'd be surprised if hospital numbers are below the wave one peak by mid-February. Will they loosen restrictions with hospital numbers still that high?
It will be interesting to see if they go 3 but schools closed, or open the schools but stay at 4.
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places
Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places
Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March
Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be: - schools back Mid March - Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3' - pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.
But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.
I would hope gyms open much sooner than that.
They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.
Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':
Whisky Galore on BBC4 just now, probably one of the last expressions of authentic cultural Unionism. Only a little bit patronising but affectionately so, and the prototype Captain Mainwaring gets it ripped out of him more than anyone.
Filmed on Barra.
Aye, it’s the last biggish Hebridean island I’ve still to visit.
An irony is that the film location Barra and historical setting Eriskay were largely Catholic so observance of the Sabbath which plays a part in the plot wasn’t actually such a big deal.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March
Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be: - schools back Mid March - Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3' - pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.
But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.
I would hope gyms open much sooner than that.
They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.
Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':
Love the responses to that. A bunch of FBPE-ers saying "surely this is because Brexit" and the Remainer tweeter having to answer "No, this is because Covid",
Of course it's fucking Covid. In a deadly global plague you want to go home
The reason seems quite obvious to me - living and working in London. All the cafes, pubs, bars, restaurants, shops etc that catered to the commuting population used
- overwhelmingly foreign workers - pay by the hour
So when these places shut, you had large numbers of people with no pay but paying London rents.
So it is entirely unsurprising to me that that they went home to be unemployed and live in Mum&Dad Hotel.
Yes, I expect London's population could have dropped by 300,000-500,000 in a year, and the same goes for NYC, Paris, etc. Rental costs in London show this already. Down 10-15% More in places
Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows
700,000 from London should mean it loses - what? 8 Westminster seats?
EU citizens, and anecdotally most of them are coming back as soon as they are eligible for the vaccine in March/April. Loads of my friends and colleagues from Europe have gone back but almost all of them can't wait to come back to London but it's not worth it for them to stay here and pay rent when they can easily move back home and live in big houses in warm countries for a few months and still do the same job remotely.
One thing that I've noticed is that a few of my European friends are actually talking about buying flats with the money they've saved this year so I expect the London housing market for small flats to be pretty hot once lockdown ends and EU people return to their lives in London.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
It'll be a gradual loosening.
Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3. By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.
Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.
That's optimistic.
In wave one it took 33 days for the numbers in hospital to fall below 50% of the peak.
Vaccinations will speed it up, but Cockney Covid makes it harder, the restrictions are looser and we aren't benefiting from spring. And we haven't peaked yet.
I'd be surprised if hospital numbers are below the wave one peak by mid-February. Will they loosen restrictions with hospital numbers still that high?
It will be interesting to see if they go 3 but schools closed, or open the schools but stay at 4.
I think they will really want to open schools after half-term.
Whisky Galore on BBC4 just now, probably one of the last expressions of authentic cultural Unionism. Only a little bit patronising but affectionately so, and the prototype Captain Mainwaring gets it ripped out of him more than anyone.
Filmed on Barra.
Aye, it’s the last biggish Hebridean island I’ve still to visit.
An irony is that the film location Barra and historical setting Eriskay were largely Catholic so observance of the Sabbath which plays a part in the plot wasn’t actually such a big deal.
Hoping to get my holiday on Barra this autumn - usually a group of us take a house every other year. Scuppered last year. The rare migrant birds funnel down the Outer Hebs and end up in about four patches of trees on the island....so we drive around, checking them out each day. Not had huge luck, but I did find a Melodious Warbler - only about the second seen in the Outer Hebs.
I was there on Referendum Day in 2014, on the basis that if Scotland went Yes, there would be one hell of a party...(they did vote Yes there, but it was more of a wake....)
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
It'll be a gradual loosening.
Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3. By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.
Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.
That's optimistic.
In wave one it took 33 days for the numbers in hospital to fall below 50% of the peak.
Vaccinations will speed it up, but Cockney Covid makes it harder, the restrictions are looser and we aren't benefiting from spring. And we haven't peaked yet.
I'd be surprised if hospital numbers are below the wave one peak by mid-February. Will they loosen restrictions with hospital numbers still that high?
Hang on; we're seeing case numbers start to move down now. This will flow into admissions. If it takes 33 days for "in hospital" to halve, then that's about the 20th of February.
Now, maybe they'll want the numbers in hospital to decline further, but 38-40 days from now, even at just 400k a day, is still 16 million people having had at least one dose, and the case numbers will have come down fairly sharply with lockdown.
I think some loosening is inevitable at that point.
Whisky Galore on BBC4 just now, probably one of the last expressions of authentic cultural Unionism. Only a little bit patronising but affectionately so, and the prototype Captain Mainwaring gets it ripped out of him more than anyone.
Filmed on Barra.
Aye, it’s the last biggish Hebridean island I’ve still to visit.
An irony is that the film location Barra and historical setting Eriskay were largely Catholic so observance of the Sabbath which plays a part in the plot wasn’t actually such a big deal.
Hoping to get my holiday on Barra this autumn - usually a group of us take a house every other year. Scuppered last year. The rare migrant birds funnel down the Outer Hebs and end up in about four patches of trees on the island....so we drive around, checking them out each day. Not had huge luck, but I did find a Melodious Warbler - only about the second seen in the Outer Hebs.
I was there on Referendum Day in 2014, on the basis that if Scotland went Yes, there would be one hell of a party...(they did vote Yes there, but it was more of a wake....)
Hoping to get to Berneray at the other end in June.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
Boris needs to be upfront now that nothing - including schools - can reopen before 1 March
Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be: - schools back Mid March - Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3' - pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.
But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.
I would hope gyms open much sooner than that.
They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.
Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
It'll be a gradual loosening.
Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3. By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.
Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.
That's optimistic.
In wave one it took 33 days for the numbers in hospital to fall below 50% of the peak.
Vaccinations will speed it up, but Cockney Covid makes it harder, the restrictions are looser and we aren't benefiting from spring. And we haven't peaked yet.
I'd be surprised if hospital numbers are below the wave one peak by mid-February. Will they loosen restrictions with hospital numbers still that high?
Hang on; we're seeing case numbers start to move down now. This will flow into admissions. If it takes 33 days for "in hospital" to halve, then that's about the 20th of February.
Now, maybe they'll want the numbers in hospital to decline further, but 38-40 days from now, even at just 400k a day, is still 16 million people having had at least one dose, and the case numbers will have come down fairly sharply with lockdown.
I think some loosening is inevitable at that point.
I wonder how travel restrictions will be loosened, and whether most of Europe will be significantly behind timewise. I hope they get in gear better.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
As I understand it, the first dose of, say, Pfizer, gives 80-90% protection, and the 2nd just tops this up to 90%+? Am I wrong?
That is, surely, the government's rationale for delaying the 2nd dose. But you are the doc
Yes... but don't forget that 80% of the doses we're going to be giving out in the next few months will be AZN, which is much mess efficacious.
That is uncertain. As I understand it. Oxford-AZ's efficacy is "good", it may be "very good". We don't know yet
Both the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) have c. 95% efficacy. The adenovirus vaccines, whether Chinese, Russian or British appear to be in the low 60s to the mid 80s. That's not awful, but it is substantially less than with Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.
If I were paying up, I know which one I'd rather get.
If Oxford-AZ turns out to be mid 80s then yay. Low 60s, meh. We don't know yet, surely. Their testing was a bit pff
A 60% vaccine that is piss easy to store and distribute is great to have at this stage in the game.
Isn't there a difference in potential strategy needed between the two? You could hit the more vulnerable groups (over 50s) with a 95% and then unlock pretty safely knowing it would go round the under 50s without doing much harm, but at 60% you barely get herd immunity if you do apsolutely everybody, and with 40% of your vulnerable group unprotected you can't afford to let it circulate much or you will still have hospitals full of ill people.
Mixture of the shameless indulging in what they thought was a game, and the truly sinister.
But whatever, complainaing about it now is wrong, just move on.
Au contraire, the politicians in that clip encouraging the mob should be prosecuted, and the idiots who believed them and invaded Congress should be pardoned.
The Boris paradox for the Sturge is every day he is PM, support for Indy remains, but she won't get an IndyRef whilst he remains.
BoZo can't stop her holding a referendum with the same legal weight as the Brexit vote.
You mean one legislated for in the only parliament with power to do so? Errr, F- in constitutional politics for you Scotty.
What Law would the Scottish Government be breaking by holding an advisory referendum on an arbitrary topic?
Potentially the Scotland Act but that question would no doubt end up in the Supreme Court.
If the Supreme Court rules that an advisory referendum is legal (it could but no guarantee of that) the idea that can be just ignored is ridiculous. Heck if the SNP win a majority it would be ridiculous not to have a referendum and it seems Boris and Gove know that deep down too.
By definition the SC cannot ignore statute and the Scotland Act 1998 which reserves Union matters to Westminster
Bujt it gives priority to Scots law on matters handed up from the Scottish courts, as ytou should remember full well from the attempts of your party to close down democracy in the UK. And that matter is still untested.
That’s not correct Carnyx. It said that the principle of constitutional law was that when two statutes are in conflict, as in that case, the one that gave greater democratic accountability should be preferred. In this case, that was Scottish law, so they went with that.
Which is altogether different from saying ‘Scots law has primacy.’
In any case, since there is no ‘Scottish’ law on independence and now way to legally make one, the point is moot.
I know Business for Scotland says otherwise but it was not telling the truth.
The Crown s4... Gillian Anderson’s Maggie is pretty ridiculous isn’t it?
I managed about three minutes. I love Gillian Anderson normally but that Thatcher voice/character is just unbearable. Awful overacting. Absolutely risible.
If half a million vaccinations a day are reached then almost the whole country will be done by the end of March.
As I mentioned earlier, HALF DONE...
One would expect, assuming other vaccines are approved and supply continues to ramp up, that the pace of vaccinations will keep rising. One would also expect R to fall as more people are vaccinated - even if the protection is only partial.
I don't know about you, @Foxy, but I'm feeling increasingly optimistic about the world.
Basically: cheer up man!
I really want to be cheery, it's just the doom part of me fears that we are overcautious in re-opening, don't reopen properly till mid-summer, and then towards the middle of autumn we realise the virus has mutated beyond the existing vaccine and we need to basically start jabbing from scratch again - after more lockdown whilst the pharma companies tweak their jabs.
But hopefully it's not like that.
There’s a real risk we are too slow to unlock IMO. There is a lobby that wants to reduce covid risk to near zero, without balancing it against other risks. That will be a major debate in the spring. The best way to avoid it is to JFDI on vaccinations so those who tend to a more libertarian instincts and those who have a more authoritarian bent find themselves arguing the toss over just a couple of weeks of extra restrictions.
It'll be a gradual loosening.
Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3. By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.
Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.
That's optimistic.
In wave one it took 33 days for the numbers in hospital to fall below 50% of the peak.
Vaccinations will speed it up, but Cockney Covid makes it harder, the restrictions are looser and we aren't benefiting from spring. And we haven't peaked yet.
I'd be surprised if hospital numbers are below the wave one peak by mid-February. Will they loosen restrictions with hospital numbers still that high?
Hang on; we're seeing case numbers start to move down now. This will flow into admissions. If it takes 33 days for "in hospital" to halve, then that's about the 20th of February.
Now, maybe they'll want the numbers in hospital to decline further, but 38-40 days from now, even at just 400k a day, is still 16 million people having had at least one dose, and the case numbers will have come down fairly sharply with lockdown.
I think some loosening is inevitable at that point.
Apologies, I was inexact in my definitions. I was referring to timings from a peak in numbers in hospital. This will follow the decline in case numbers we already see, but my point is that the 33-day period hasn't started yet. So, in five weeks time (35 days) we're quite likely to still have numbers in hospital higher than at any time last spring.
Comments
Just fifteen short years later. You remember 15 years ago like it was yesterday, right?
But hopefully it's not like that.
https://twitter.com/vonstrenginho/status/1349824512544698369?s=20
Equally, if the vaccines work, these numbers could bounce back very quick. Who knows
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349844279175348224?s=19
The Daily Mail, March 3rd, 1349
(And the Israeli interviewee emphasised the data provided to Pfizer rather than the cash, btw.)
Cheaper rent and affordable housing will be good things.
And yes we have lost quite a lot of young people, but we've also killed 100,000s of oldsters, who will continue to die off in future winters.
Perhaps this was Gaia's plan all along. A rebalancing.
Next month, the combination of lockdown and vaccinations for most of the elderly will take us from 4 to 3.
By Easter it'll be 2 in most places.
Some restrictions - karaoke bars, perhaps - will last until Summer, but the start of opening up the economy is perhaps four, five weeks away.
Then we can see where we are end Feb/early Mar and the outcome COULD be:
- schools back Mid March
- Non essential retail, gyms etc open 1 April ie a 'national Tier 3'
- pubs, restaurants etc reopened 1 May and on a more relaxed basis than Tier 1 eg get rid of mandatory table service and wearing masks when moving around the venue etc.
But these timings are speculation and Boris shouldn't commit to anything until we see where infections/hospitalisations/deaths/vaccines are at end Feb.
I cannot say that I relish my remaining decade of working life being dominated by the fallout of covid and Brexit. If it wasn't for family, the antipodes would beckon.
There's a lot of ruin in a nation.
I am just baffled by how slow most of Europe is being.
Are Germany still vaccinating a few hundred people a day?
As bubonic plague ravages London, killing 49% of all workers
The Daily Express, June 3rd, 1350
Structural employment issues are still widespread through Spain and France, to name but two...
The question is - where will the work be? The reason that so many young people ended up in the UK In the first place was that their home countries were not creating jobs for them.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
Need to buckle down and get through what’s left of winter.
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZS3q2FjY/
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-in-the-uk-since-1270
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-55670318
They were open only 10 days ago in Yorkshire.
Speaking of Yorkshire I wonder if the interactive map shows that tier 3 was the 'sweet spot':
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map
The one place I really wouldn't want to be is indoors with loads of people huffing and puffing.
In wave one it took 33 days for the numbers in hospital to fall below 50% of the peak.
Vaccinations will speed it up, but Cockney Covid makes it harder, the restrictions are looser and we aren't benefiting from spring. And we haven't peaked yet.
I'd be surprised if hospital numbers are below the wave one peak by mid-February. Will they loosen restrictions with hospital numbers still that high?
But mine at least is pretty well organised.
And in winter the health benefits they provide are especially important.
But whatever, complainaing about it now is wrong, just move on.
An irony is that the film location Barra and historical setting Eriskay were largely Catholic so observance of the Sabbath which plays a part in the plot wasn’t actually such a big deal.
One thing that I've noticed is that a few of my European friends are actually talking about buying flats with the money they've saved this year so I expect the London housing market for small flats to be pretty hot once lockdown ends and EU people return to their lives in London.
I was there on Referendum Day in 2014, on the basis that if Scotland went Yes, there would be one hell of a party...(they did vote Yes there, but it was more of a wake....)
Now, maybe they'll want the numbers in hospital to decline further, but 38-40 days from now, even at just 400k a day, is still 16 million people having had at least one dose, and the case numbers will have come down fairly sharply with lockdown.
I think some loosening is inevitable at that point.
We, as the saying goes, shall see.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
Which is altogether different from saying ‘Scots law has primacy.’
In any case, since there is no ‘Scottish’ law on independence and now way to legally make one, the point is moot.
I know Business for Scotland says otherwise but it was not telling the truth.