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Back to British politics for a change and a possible threat to Boris – politicalbetting.com

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  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited January 2021
    deleted
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825
    Phil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Breaking - Toby's been done by IPSO for saying that getting a cold gives protection against Covid.

    He has not had a good pandemic.

    Blimey you have to come out with a real whopper to get the wrong side of IPSO as a journalist.
    Well, that’s Toby Young for you. Weirdly I think he asks a lot of the right questions. The trouble lies in the part where he doesn’t seem to be interested whether his answers are true or not.
    It would somewhat interfere with the role of pundit, in fairness.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited January 2021

    Carnyx said:

    I can't quite work this out. But there was a thing in reporting the court case over the need for anonymity for his accusers. Is this the issue here? i.e. submitting the documents may well breach that anonymity.
    That's one of the issues I thought it might be referencing.

    There maybe a confidentially clause in the deal he agreed with the Scottish government.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/13/alex-salmond-awarded-512000-payout-after-botched-investigation
    Thanks. But to muddy the waters further see my previous Edit: reply not tweet! to TUD (crossed in the aether). Which I can't reconcile with threats of prosecution of at least one person reporting the trial on AFAIK precisely the issue of confidentiality.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    You can take or leave the assumptions behind this analysis - they are debatable - but the general thrust is plausible. The death rate will be cut rapidly as the most vulnerable are vaccinated; the hospitalisation rate will be cut roughly in half and will only come down further as the general population is vaccinated over a longer timeframe.

    As hospitals are beyond capacity right now this suggests to me that significant social distancing measures will still be required months after the vulnerable group are vaccinated. There will be an argument about this.

    https://twitter.com/henryhtapper/status/1348903187324006401

    Groups 1-4 will finish vaccinating in the middle of Feb. Does this model just assume vaccination will stop then?
    It's only looking at groups 1-4, I'd actually like to see that taken forwards for the whole country.
    It can't be just looking at 1-4, as the cases are still at 80% after they've all been vaccinated.
    14 million people is near as darn it 20% of the population.

    So COVID will be raging along in the other 80% of the population, even if those 14 million are 95% protected.
    From the article:
    "We should expect any reduction in cases to be broadly consistent with the proportion vaccinated as a percentage of the total population."

    I think that's too simplistic, and understates the benefit, because vaccinations affect the R rate rather than affecting the cases directly, so the benefit gets multiplied week after week.

    It's hard to quantify though, as we're not vaccinating a random selection of people: vaccinating the old probably has a less than proportional effect on R, as they shouldn't be meeting many people anyway, while vaccinating health and care workers should have a much bigger effect. And of course we can't ignore that the vaccines don't have 100% efficacy, especially with a single dose.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Carnyx said:

    I can't quite work this out. But there was a thing in reporting the court case over the need for anonymity for his accusers. Is this the issue here? i.e. submitting the documents may well breach that anonymity.
    I think the implication may be that various aspects of Salmond's behaviour over the years have been known to Sturgeon which would certainly be a sticky wicket for her. However that would mean AS admitting to actions so reprehensible that Sturgeon should have been duty bound to act on the information.
    Thanks for that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    Breaking - Toby's been done by IPSO for saying that getting a cold gives protection against Covid.

    He has not had a good pandemic.

    Blimey you have to come out with a real whopper to get the wrong side of IPSO as a journalist.
    Toby doesn't mess about. Hasn't got a reverse gear.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited January 2021

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Correcting myself..."must" is the wrong verb. They can look outside Holryood if they want.
    Not that they have many plausible choices outside of it.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Not Ian Murray?

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Only possible because of streaming. People with hard copies on VHS or DVD will be able to continue watching the original version.
    They should issue a recall.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Correcting myself..."must" is the wrong verb. They can look outside Holryood if they want.
    Not that they have many plausible choices outside of it.

    I suppose it didn't go well the last time they had a MP - Mr 'I will not lose a single seat" Murphy. And a peer would invite too many attack lines.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I can't quite work this out. But there was a thing in reporting the court case over the need for anonymity for his accusers. Is this the issue here? i.e. submitting the documents may well breach that anonymity.
    I think the implication may be that various aspects of Salmond's behaviour over the years have been known to Sturgeon which would certainly be a sticky wicket for her. However that would mean AS admitting to actions so reprehensible that Sturgeon should have been duty bound to act on the information.
    Thanks for that.
    I should probably have written 'one interpretation may be' since I know as little as the next Scotch expert.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    About those vaccination certificates... the land of the free has come up with a notion.
    https://twitter.com/jhalamka/status/1349778427780464642
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    FF43 said:

    It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership.



    I do not doubt than Boris is a big factor and it is why when covid is on the wain I would like to see Rishi as PM
    But it used to be he should go when he'd delivered Brexit.

    This is starting to feel a bit like a journey towards the horizon.
  • Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Only possible because of streaming. People with hard copies on VHS or DVD will be able to continue watching the original version.
    They should issue a recall.
    Get Arnold Schwarzenegger involved, he has a history with recalls.
  • Baillie can get back some Lab to Con switchers. She won't make inroads in SNP IMO.
    Some of them like Boyack are ok. However, I think they are ok in the same way Leonard is ok.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Did we get a new latest number of vaccinations today?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    edited January 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I can't quite work this out. But there was a thing in reporting the court case over the need for anonymity for his accusers. Is this the issue here? i.e. submitting the documents may well breach that anonymity.
    That's one of the issues I thought it might be referencing.

    There maybe a confidentially clause in the deal he agreed with the Scottish government.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/13/alex-salmond-awarded-512000-payout-after-botched-investigation
    Thanks. But to muddy the waters further see my previous tweet to TUD (crossed in the aether). Which I can't reconcile with threats of prosecution of at least one person reporting the trial on AFAIK precisely the issue of confidentiality.
    Remember Alex Salmond has admitted (via his barrister) he acted inappropriately with female subordinates as well as admitting he is no angel.

    I suspect he's wanting to make sure things don't escalate for him via a new complaint based on his new testimony.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited January 2021

    FF43 said:

    It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership. It really takes off in the summer of 2019 and doesn't look back.



    I mentioned earlier the moment Boris Johnson made himself Minister for the Union support for Scottish Independence has surged.

    He's Minister for Scottish Independence more like.
    There is a limited market* for Johnson's brand of nationalism in Scotland. We have our own brand, which some people like and others don't, but at least it's ours.

    * Limited market for Johnson, actually.
  • kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership.



    I do not doubt than Boris is a big factor and it is why when covid is on the wain I would like to see Rishi as PM
    But it used to be he should go when he'd delivered Brexit.

    This is starting to feel a bit like a journey towards the horizon.
    Considering he's got a deal, multiple vaccines and is doing well in his job now why should he go imminently?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Only possible because of streaming. People with hard copies on VHS or DVD will be able to continue watching the original version.
    They should issue a recall.
    Get Arnold Schwarzenegger involved, he has a history with recalls.
    Totally.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,305

    FF43 said:

    It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership. It really takes off in the summer of 2019 and doesn't look back.

    I mentioned earlier the moment Boris Johnson made himself Minister for the Union support for Scottish Independence has surged.

    He's Minister for Scottish Independence more like.
    Don't downplay his role. He's also Minister for Irish Unification.
  • kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership.



    I do not doubt than Boris is a big factor and it is why when covid is on the wain I would like to see Rishi as PM
    But it used to be he should go when he'd delivered Brexit.

    This is starting to feel a bit like a journey towards the horizon.
    He is hardly going to go at this moment in the Covid crisis
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited January 2021
    Carnyx said:

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Not Ian Murray?

    yes, I corrected myself later. But not fast enough to be able to edit my post.
    However, would Murray want to go for it? SLAB will lose Scottish Parliament elections anyway because SLAB problems aren't due to only Leonard's weak leadership.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited January 2021

    Baillie can get back some Lab to Con switchers. She won't make inroads in SNP IMO.
    Some of them like Boyack are ok. However, I think they are ok in the same way Leonard is ok.

    I think that's right. Also Ms Baillie is very pro-Trident. Somethijng of a disadvantage in Labour.

    PS Also consider Labour to ScoGreens as well - and again, Ms B won;t dent that much.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Shocking decline for the party of Jack McConnell.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Gaussian said:

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Shocking decline for the party of Jack McConnell.
    Keir Hardie and Robert Bontine Cunninghame Graham wave skeletal hands.
  • Baillie can get back some Lab to Con switchers. She won't make inroads in SNP IMO.
    Some of them like Boyack are ok. However, I think they are ok in the same way Leonard is ok.

    Would have thought Sarwar as the other main candidate last time round would be in with a shout?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    I watched Boris Johnson's shambolic meeting with The Liaison Committee, his incoherence is extraordinary.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    Latest C19 update from Dr John Campbell.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UTC9hW_VsA
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited January 2021

    Baillie can get back some Lab to Con switchers. She won't make inroads in SNP IMO.
    Some of them like Boyack are ok. However, I think they are ok in the same way Leonard is ok.

    Would have thought Sarwar as the other main candidate last time round would be in with a shout?
    I wondered, but Leonard's lot raked up stuff re his family wealth, family company's policy re trade unions, sending weans to private school, etc. Probably in revenge for the Sarwar side complaining IIRC he was a Yorkshireman (albeit giving that as a reason Scots wouldn't vote for him).

    Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Scottish_Labour_leadership_election
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited January 2021

    Baillie can get back some Lab to Con switchers. She won't make inroads in SNP IMO.
    Some of them like Boyack are ok. However, I think they are ok in the same way Leonard is ok.

    Would have thought Sarwar as the other main candidate last time round would be in with a shout?
    I suppose it will be between them and they will sort it out before the contest rather than standing against each other.

    However, I still associate Sarwar with this tenure as Deputy Leader when Lamont was in charge. And even that period didn't end up well.
  • kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership.



    I do not doubt than Boris is a big factor and it is why when covid is on the wain I would like to see Rishi as PM
    But it used to be he should go when he'd delivered Brexit.

    This is starting to feel a bit like a journey towards the horizon.
    He is hardly going to go at this moment in the Covid crisis
    Things would go better without Bodybag Boris around.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,386
    dr_spyn said:

    I watched Boris Johnson's shambolic meeting with The Liaison Committee, his incoherence is extraordinary.

    I can't recall the last time he spoke a sentence without a string of erms and errs in it. Struggling.
  • kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership.



    I do not doubt than Boris is a big factor and it is why when covid is on the wain I would like to see Rishi as PM
    But it used to be he should go when he'd delivered Brexit.

    This is starting to feel a bit like a journey towards the horizon.
    He is hardly going to go at this moment in the Covid crisis
    Why not? We changed Prime Ministers during both world wars.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Carnyx said:

    I can't quite work this out. But there was a thing in reporting the court case over the need for anonymity for his accusers. Is this the issue here? i.e. submitting the documents may well breach that anonymity.
    There are still contempt of court orders in relation to their identities. I think this is tricky. The risk would be that if Salmond is given carte blanche he could use the platform to make allegations against those complainers who he has accused of lying in his evidence to the trial.

    I think it is very unlikely that he signed any kind of gagging order in relation to the previous case. The Scottish government caved in and agreed to pay an astonishing level of expenses. he didn't have to give them anything.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Carnyx said:

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Not Ian Murray?

    yes, I corrected myself later. But not fast enough to be able to edit my post.
    However, would Murray want to go for it? SLAB will lose Scottish Parliament elections anyway because SLAB problems aren't due to only Leonard's weak leadership.
    Labour is actually polling higher today than back in Spring 2017 under Kezia Dugdale.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    rpjs said:

    Poor Rudy, he's being set up as the patsy by Trump isn't he?

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1349768565931593729

    Trump to use hiring Giuliani as evidence of insanity?
    Rudi can make the same argument over accepting the gig.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    justin124 said:

    Carnyx said:

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Not Ian Murray?

    yes, I corrected myself later. But not fast enough to be able to edit my post.
    However, would Murray want to go for it? SLAB will lose Scottish Parliament elections anyway because SLAB problems aren't due to only Leonard's weak leadership.
    Labour is actually polling higher today than back in Spring 2017 under Kezia Dugdale.
    But this is not exactly an impressive boast, is it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sky

    Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours

    How to misjudge the politics over covid

    SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....
    Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made them
    Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.

    The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.
    And I am a member and reject his intervention
    Ditto.
    You're a Tory MEMBER as well as voter !!
    Since 2004, except for when Theresa May was leader.
    That's remarkable. A lifetime of Tory activism except with just a short break because of Theresa May. Very unusual! And knocks me into a cocked one. Although maybe I'm quite unusual too. I've always voted Labour but I only joined the party in 2017 as a left leaning man well into middle age.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I don't want to state the obvious but several of the lines on that graph are clearly going up.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2021

    justin124 said:

    Carnyx said:

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Not Ian Murray?

    yes, I corrected myself later. But not fast enough to be able to edit my post.
    However, would Murray want to go for it? SLAB will lose Scottish Parliament elections anyway because SLAB problems aren't due to only Leonard's weak leadership.
    Labour is actually polling higher today than back in Spring 2017 under Kezia Dugdale.
    But this is not exactly an impressive boast, is it.

    justin124 said:

    Carnyx said:

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Not Ian Murray?

    yes, I corrected myself later. But not fast enough to be able to edit my post.
    However, would Murray want to go for it? SLAB will lose Scottish Parliament elections anyway because SLAB problems aren't due to only Leonard's weak leadership.
    Labour is actually polling higher today than back in Spring 2017 under Kezia Dugdale.
    But this is not exactly an impressive boast, is it.
    Indeed not - but in June 2017 Labour still went on to poll over 27% at the GE and increased its representation from 1 to 7 MPs.
    I rather fancy Labour's chances were there to be a by election in Rutherglen.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    dr_spyn said:

    I watched Boris Johnson's shambolic meeting with The Liaison Committee, his incoherence is extraordinary.

    It is incredible that at this time of national crisis we are being led by someone somanifestly inadequate to the task.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Gaussian said:

    With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool

    Jackie Baillie
    Claire Baker
    Claudia Beamish
    Neil Bibby
    Sarah Boyack
    James Kelly
    Daniel Johnson
    Mark Griffin
    Rhoda Grant
    Monica Lennon
    Pauline McNeill
    Alex Rowley
    Anas Sarwar
    Colin Smyth

    Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.

    Shocking decline for the party of Jack McConnell.
    I was disappointed that Jenny Marra said she was standing down after the birth of her second child. She was an asset. I would have thought this was between Sarwar and Baillie. I met Sarwar during the referendum campaign. Nice suit. Let's leave it at that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Worldometer total deaths 1,994,576. 2m tomorrow.

    Spanish flu generally reckoned to have killed 20-50m, which would scale up to 80-200m. Some way to go yet.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    edited January 2021


    I don't want to state the obvious but several of the lines on that graph are clearly going up.

    #rateofchange
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687

    FF43 said:

    It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership. It really takes off in the summer of 2019 and doesn't look back.

    I mentioned earlier the moment Boris Johnson made himself Minister for the Union support for Scottish Independence has surged.

    He's Minister for Scottish Independence more like.
    Don't downplay his role. He's also Minister for Irish Unification.
    And English self-impoverishment.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    No problem with food quantities (fresh or otherwise) at 6pm at my local Sainsbugs.

    Can someone explain to me how, if fruit wholesalers can get grapes to my basket from South Africa for £1.50 a punnet, getting some lettuce leaves from Europe is so blinking hard?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    It's because he's a Fascist.

    Trump's a wanker as well.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    IshmaelZ said:

    Worldometer total deaths 1,994,576. 2m tomorrow.

    Spanish flu generally reckoned to have killed 20-50m, which would scale up to 80-200m. Some way to go yet.

    That said we passed 1m on September 25th. The second million has come around pretty quickly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,891
    dr_spyn said:

    I watched Boris Johnson's shambolic meeting with The Liaison Committee, his incoherence is extraordinary.

    I think you mean legendary.

    He hasn't got worse since getting the gig.

    This is guy the Tories wanted...
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sky

    Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours

    How to misjudge the politics over covid

    SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....
    Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made them
    Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.

    The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.
    And I am a member and reject his intervention
    Ditto.
    You're a Tory MEMBER as well as voter !!
    Since 2004, except for when Theresa May was leader.
    That's remarkable. A lifetime of Tory activism except with just a short break because of Theresa May. Very unusual! And knocks me into a cocked one. Although maybe I'm quite unusual too. I've always voted Labour but I only joined the party in 2017 as a left leaning man well into middle age.
    I joined in 2004 as I was annoyed Hague had been followed up with IDS rather than Clarke and wanted a vote in the next election, and was delighted that Cameron whom I voted for won.

    In 2015 as I've mentioned before I was disgusted with Theresa May's nasty and xenophobic Conference speech losing all respect for her. I would have voted against her had I had the opportunity (though not a particular fan of Leadsom it would have been an anti-May vote). I quit when she won.

    As a result despite being a member most of my adult life, Cameron is the only leader I ever voted for. Was denied a vote in 2016 and wasn't a member but was delighted Johnson won in 2019. Would have voted for him had I not already quit the party.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    FF43 said:

    It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership. It really takes off in the summer of 2019 and doesn't look back.



    If you were to take the worst aspects of every absurd prejudiced caricature that Scots could dream up about the English, multiply them by ten and somehow fashion them into a human being, it would be Boris Johnson. For the SNP every day he remains PM is a day that they are winning.
  • Alistair said:

    I don't want to state the obvious but several of the lines on that graph are clearly going up.
    Pretty much everywhere apart from Wales and the original T4 areas it seems.

    So looks like T4/lockdown is working, but needs time to work in the rest of the country.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112

    FF43 said:

    It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership. It really takes off in the summer of 2019 and doesn't look back.



    If you were to take the worst aspects of every absurd prejudiced caricature that Scots could dream up about the English, multiply them by ten and somehow fashion them into a human being, it would be Boris Johnson. For the SNP every day he remains PM is a day that they are winning.
    Yes I think thats right.

    The Boris paradox for the Sturge is every day he is PM, support for Indy remains, but she won't get an IndyRef whilst he remains.

    I expect she's hoping, Micawber like, that something will turn up - like a hung parliament where the only option for Starmer is a Lab-SNP coalition.

    Of course, the very idea of the latter helps the Tories in about 50 seats south of the border....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,891
    Mortimer said:

    The Boris paradox for the Sturge is every day he is PM, support for Indy remains, but she won't get an IndyRef whilst he remains.

    BoZo can't stop her holding a referendum with the same legal weight as the Brexit vote.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    Scott_xP said:

    Mortimer said:

    The Boris paradox for the Sturge is every day he is PM, support for Indy remains, but she won't get an IndyRef whilst he remains.

    BoZo can't stop her holding a referendum with the same legal weight as the Brexit vote.
    You mean one legislated for in the only parliament with power to do so? Errr, F- in constitutional politics for you Scotty.
  • Rather concerning that the rate of vaccinating in the best performing EU countries is either falling (Denmark) or flattening (Italy):

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Suggests supply constraints.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    edited January 2021
    Scott_xP said:
    Trump better have pardons for his family ready next Wednesday and ensure they are close by so they can be handed to them in person there and then.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112

    Rather concerning that the rate of vaccinating in the best performing EU countries is either falling (Denmark) or flattening (Italy):

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Suggests supply constraints.

    Saw a tweet earlier which suggested IIRC that Denmark looked to be reaching the limits of the supply from that much lauded EU vaccine procurement programme.
  • BBC News - Marcus Rashford calls on PM for wider free school meal review
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55670096

    I can see this ending in free school meals for all during term time and holidays.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    IshmaelZ said:

    Worldometer total deaths 1,994,576. 2m tomorrow.

    Spanish flu generally reckoned to have killed 20-50m, which would scale up to 80-200m. Some way to go yet.

    It won't get to that point - which means even though we've done disastrously we've also managed to pull off a miracle.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Alistair said:

    I don't want to state the obvious but several of the lines on that graph are clearly going up.
    It's showing the number of active cases rather than daily new cases. Not very helpful when talking about R.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Scott_xP said:
    Scottish Labour are now the Watford of political parties.
  • BBC News - Marcus Rashford calls on PM for wider free school meal review
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55670096

    I can see this ending in free school meals for all during term time and holidays.

    I would have no problem with that but in all this his football is suffering and he was taken off v Burnley

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    edited January 2021
    You can see why Labour are so shit at devolving power and autonomy

    https://twitter.com/EleniCourea/status/1349767137666195461?s=20
  • The idea is obsolete now in any case.

    Vaccination is the way forward.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112

    BBC News - Marcus Rashford calls on PM for wider free school meal review
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55670096

    I can see this ending in free school meals for all during term time and holidays.

    I would have no problem with that but in all this his football is suffering and he was taken off v Burnley

    I would.

    The state should not be providing what parents can.

    Every time that the state steps forward, individuals step back.
  • Rather concerning that the rate of vaccinating in the best performing EU countries is either falling (Denmark) or flattening (Italy):

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Suggests supply constraints.

    Italy has done 930,678 vaccinations out of 1,408,875 doses available. However, 490,425 of them were delivered on 11-12 January
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,459
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Stocky said:

    Need a timetable out though.

    Yes, I'm pretty much the opposite of a Baker Fan Boy, but he's a useful outrider in keeping government under pressure on exit strategy. We have seen on here that many seek to reduce covid risk to near zero, rather than balance it with other risks.

    Baker asking for a timetable is probably a bit previous given we haven't yet got the data we need, but I'd rather have that pressure on than not.
    This is exactly the position of the rebels on the right. In the absence of any opposition from Labour to endless lockdowns, the fiscal hawks want to ensure enough pressure is kept on the Govt.

    It is from the right that the pressure for 24/7 vaccinations have come. It was from the right that the pressure for parliamentary scrutiny of new regs has come.

    The right are driving better decision making. Starmer might learn something from that....if he wasn't dominated by the union position.
    Regrettable as I find it, I think you have a point.
    Given we now seem to agree on everything (and I saw your very kind words last night too), I assume you're a big pineapple on pizza fan, too?
    I have never disliked it! I used to be quite partial to a Hawaiian although opportunities are limited these days!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    No matter how bad things are - it could be worse

    https://twitter.com/dresserman/status/1349629667679084544
  • Scott_xP said:
    45% are saying positive or no difference in that poll

    I bet Boris would take that
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    Evening all!
    Just catching up with today’s posts from the world of PB.
    Sorry that the SLAB knives have finally reached Ronald Leotard’s heart.
    Thinking of who should be the next victim.
    Mrs Fairliered thinks it should be someone who won their constituency - not a list MSP. That limits the choices to Iain Gray (retiring), Daniel Johnston (who?) or Jackie Baillie. Being a compulsive liar should eliminate Jackie Baillie from the competition (but probably won’t). Preferring to load the bullets for someone else to fire probably will. It will be interesting to see how she performs at FMQs over the next few weeks.
    The Malc award for comedy performance would surely choose James Kelly, the only candidate who was rejected for “The Zombies” because he was too inanimate.
    The favourite is Anas Sarwar, who is unlikely to be able to maintain SLAB’s recently gained second place in the Scottish opinion polls, despite the competition from Baroness Davidson and her alluring message of “Scots - you are shite”.
    40% of Scottish Labour supporters are in favour of Scottish independence. Many of the other 60% probably put other policies before independence, as the Scottish HYUFDs already vote Conservative. If SLAB want to regain voters from the SNP, they could be more neutral on independence, and choose Alex Rowley.
    Personally, I think that SLAB need to skip a generation, and choose from Monica Lennon, or an outsider who has impressed me at FMQs, Pauline McNeill.
    Mind how you go.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Scott_xP said:
    I guess that's it chaps, Brexit's over! Well done, Scott - what will you be wearing on Reunification Day next week?
  • Mortimer said:

    Rather concerning that the rate of vaccinating in the best performing EU countries is either falling (Denmark) or flattening (Italy):

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Suggests supply constraints.

    Saw a tweet earlier which suggested IIRC that Denmark looked to be reaching the limits of the supply from that much lauded EU vaccine procurement programme.
    If its not sorted out then it will surely become a big issue soon.
  • Alistair said:

    I don't want to state the obvious but several of the lines on that graph are clearly going up.
    The graph is of total number of active cases. The tweeter says that numbers of new cases are dropping everywhere. The drop in new cases will take a week or so to show as a drop in the active total.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    I can't quite work this out. But there was a thing in reporting the court case over the need for anonymity for his accusers. Is this the issue here? i.e. submitting the documents may well breach that anonymity.
    There are still contempt of court orders in relation to their identities. I think this is tricky. The risk would be that if Salmond is given carte blanche he could use the platform to make allegations against those complainers who he has accused of lying in his evidence to the trial.

    I think it is very unlikely that he signed any kind of gagging order in relation to the previous case. The Scottish government caved in and agreed to pay an astonishing level of expenses. he didn't have to give them anything.
    What would happen if an MP (Kenny MacAskill?) were to name the alphabet women under parliamentary privilege? Would that resolve the conundrum?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Mortimer said:

    The Boris paradox for the Sturge is every day he is PM, support for Indy remains, but she won't get an IndyRef whilst he remains.

    BoZo can't stop her holding a referendum with the same legal weight as the Brexit vote.
    Scott_xP said:

    Mortimer said:

    The Boris paradox for the Sturge is every day he is PM, support for Indy remains, but she won't get an IndyRef whilst he remains.

    BoZo can't stop her holding a referendum with the same legal weight as the Brexit vote.
    But in advance of the Brexit vote there were political statements made to the effect that the result would be honoured - that it was De Facto binding if not De Jure. There is no such political intent re- any Referendum organised by Sturgeon and the SNP. Much more likely is a boycott of such an event by the pro-Union parties and their supporters.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    IshmaelZ said:

    Worldometer total deaths 1,994,576. 2m tomorrow.

    Spanish flu generally reckoned to have killed 20-50m, which would scale up to 80-200m. Some way to go yet.

    That's like saying the First Word War War was trivial because an order of magnitude more people died in the the Second World War.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,459

    Rather concerning that the rate of vaccinating in the best performing EU countries is either falling (Denmark) or flattening (Italy):

    https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

    Suggests supply constraints.

    The Club Med Big Three are doing absolutely terribly. Really need Italy, France, Spain to up their game.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited January 2021

    Scott_xP said:
    I guess that's it chaps, Brexit's over! Well done, Scott - what will you be wearing on Reunification Day next week?
    This is the point. The bridges are burnt; the boats are burnt. There is no way back. So the fishermen, for example, are utterly screwed. There is nothing the Johnson government can do for them, beyond tossing them some cash, and they don't seem to be too much up for that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Guardian: Seriously ill Covid patients are being transferred from overstretched London hospitals to intensive care units almost 300 miles away in Newcastle, the Guardian can reveal.

    The crisis engulfing the capital’s hospitals is so severe that in recent days patients have also been moved 67 miles to Northampton, 125 miles to Birmingham and 167 miles to Sheffield.
  • Alistair said:

    I don't want to state the obvious but several of the lines on that graph are clearly going up.
    The graph is of total number of active cases. The tweeter says that numbers of new cases are dropping everywhere. The drop in new cases will take a week or so to show as a drop in the active total.
    On a related note the zoe covid number of infected peaked on the 11th with the number of new daily cases having dropped significantly:

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,023
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Usually people wait for the bad election results before quitting. All the union party leaders might as well do it (maybe not SLD).
    Reading your obituary whilst still alive is the best way to experience it.
    I'll tell you something from personal experience, with a colleague and with family members - writing that obituary when the subject is still alive and can be asked is the best way to do it. Not Tactful, though ...
    I knew a chap, super organised and a locally known figure, who not only put together all the detail for his funeral 10 years prior without telling anyone, but when he knew things were approaching their end provided a short biographical summary of his career involvement in things, seemingly as he wanted to be helpful as it can be difficult to find people who know all the details of when someone worked at x, represented y and so on.
    That sounds like me. I realised that there was now no one alive who knew all that I had done in my lifetime. Like many people in lockdown I have written a memoir of my life and it will be filed with my will.
  • Scott_xP said:
    So fewer think its having a negative impact than voted Remain.

    That's quite remarkable really.
  • Scott_xP said:
    45% are saying positive or no difference in that poll

    I bet Boris would take that
    Of course he would! It has made him PM, a job far above his talents should have allowed.

    Was it worth tearing apart the country for 5 years, the loss of jobs, rights and respect for the rule of law, the likely breakup of the union and already the separation of NI's economy from GBs?

    Or even for the Tory party, the end of the party of pro business, from the party of reducing red tape to finding extra red tape everywhere, the shame of replacing the likes of Hammond, Gauke, Stewart and Clarke with Raab, Williamson and Rees Mogg?
  • FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I guess that's it chaps, Brexit's over! Well done, Scott - what will you be wearing on Reunification Day next week?
    This is the point. The bridges are burnt; the boats are burnt. There is no way back. So the fishermen, for example, are utterly screwed. There is nothing the Johnson government can do for them, beyond tossing them some cash, and they don't seem to be too much up for that.
    Funny how you lot suddenly care about fishermen.
  • BBC News - Marcus Rashford calls on PM for wider free school meal review
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55670096

    I can see this ending in free school meals for all during term time and holidays.

    I would have no problem with that but in all this his football is suffering and he was taken off v Burnley

    Whoscored have him as 12th best player in the Premier league this year, thats about his level (he should improve a bit further at his age), he is not underperforming.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Scott_xP said:

    Mortimer said:

    The Boris paradox for the Sturge is every day he is PM, support for Indy remains, but she won't get an IndyRef whilst he remains.

    BoZo can't stop her holding a referendum with the same legal weight as the Brexit vote.
    Of course he can, any referendum without UK government and Westminster consent would be illegal and irrelevant as Madrid proved when it ignored the illegal referendum held by the Catalan government
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    Planning a visit to the local fish shop / smokehouse / farm shop tomorrow. Their main business was selling fresh shellfish to Italy. Should I be looking for some bargains?
This discussion has been closed.