Back to British politics for a change and a possible threat to Boris – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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14 million people is near as darn it 20% of the population.RobD said:
It can't be just looking at 1-4, as the cases are still at 80% after they've all been vaccinated.MaxPB said:
It's only looking at groups 1-4, I'd actually like to see that taken forwards for the whole country.RobD said:
Groups 1-4 will finish vaccinating in the middle of Feb. Does this model just assume vaccination will stop then?FF43 said:You can take or leave the assumptions behind this analysis - they are debatable - but the general thrust is plausible. The death rate will be cut rapidly as the most vulnerable are vaccinated; the hospitalisation rate will be cut roughly in half and will only come down further as the general population is vaccinated over a longer timeframe.
As hospitals are beyond capacity right now this suggests to me that significant social distancing measures will still be required months after the vulnerable group are vaccinated. There will be an argument about this.
https://twitter.com/henryhtapper/status/1348903187324006401
So COVID will be raging along in the other 80% of the population, even if those 14 million are 95% protected.0 -
Trump to use hiring Giuliani as evidence of insanity?TheScreamingEagles said:Poor Rudy, he's being set up as the patsy by Trump isn't he?
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/13497685659315937290 -
Yup. The EU needs to have a single border policy, the UK does too.Leon said:
And presumably the Irish, with at least 50% of their Covid being Cockney, are still allowed in?MaxPB said:
Completely pointless while Portugal still has a completely open border with Brazil and Spain with the rest of SA.CarlottaVance said:
It does reveal great anxiety, however0 -
The class of '61 seems disproportionately represented on here. Perhaps we should have a joint party in the summer.No_Offence_Alan said:
I turn 60 in March. I am convinced that will be the point for switching from vaccinating over-60s to under-60s and I will miss out.RobD said:
Groups 1-4 will finish vaccinating in the middle of Feb. Does this model just assume vaccination will stop then?FF43 said:You can take or leave the assumptions behind this analysis - they are debatable - but the general thrust is plausible. The death rate will be cut rapidly as the most vulnerable are vaccinated; the hospitalisation rate will be cut roughly in half and will only come down further as the general population is vaccinated over a longer timeframe.
As hospitals are beyond capacity right now this suggests to me that significant social distancing measures will still be required months after the vulnerable group are vaccinated. There will be an argument about this.
https://twitter.com/henryhtapper/status/13489031873240064012 -
Good news - and a reminder of how toxic Corbyn was:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349774795844554754?s=200 -
What about Ireland? Oh, the CTA innit.MaxPB said:
Completely pointless while Portugal still has a completely open border with Brazil and Spain with the rest of SA.CarlottaVance said:
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People from Sunderland, Teesside etc really love being called Geordies.CarlottaVance said:0 -
If he was insane then Pence can replace him.rpjs said:
Trump to use hiring Giuliani as evidence of insanity?TheScreamingEagles said:Poor Rudy, he's being set up as the patsy by Trump isn't he?
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1349768565931593729
I think the point is more - I wasn't the reason they stormed the Capitol, did you hear what Giuliani said - my comments were far milder.1 -
Yes you young 'uns better enjoy yourselves while you're still in the pink.IshmaelZ said:
The class of '61 seems disproportionately represented on here. Perhaps we should have a joint party in the summer.No_Offence_Alan said:
I turn 60 in March. I am convinced that will be the point for switching from vaccinating over-60s to under-60s and I will miss out.RobD said:
Groups 1-4 will finish vaccinating in the middle of Feb. Does this model just assume vaccination will stop then?FF43 said:You can take or leave the assumptions behind this analysis - they are debatable - but the general thrust is plausible. The death rate will be cut rapidly as the most vulnerable are vaccinated; the hospitalisation rate will be cut roughly in half and will only come down further as the general population is vaccinated over a longer timeframe.
As hospitals are beyond capacity right now this suggests to me that significant social distancing measures will still be required months after the vulnerable group are vaccinated. There will be an argument about this.
https://twitter.com/henryhtapper/status/1348903187324006401
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The only caveat is possibly with the Pfizer vaccine, where the cold storage requirements might make running a smaller number of sites more intensively a better option than opening more sites.eek said:
24/7 vaccinations are insane - opening enough sites so that all vaccines arriving are used within an 8/12 hour day is a far better plan.Anabobazina said:
Regrettable as I find it, I think you have a point.Mortimer said:
This is exactly the position of the rebels on the right. In the absence of any opposition from Labour to endless lockdowns, the fiscal hawks want to ensure enough pressure is kept on the Govt.Anabobazina said:
Yes, I'm pretty much the opposite of a Baker Fan Boy, but he's a useful outrider in keeping government under pressure on exit strategy. We have seen on here that many seek to reduce covid risk to near zero, rather than balance it with other risks.Stocky said:Need a timetable out though.
Baker asking for a timetable is probably a bit previous given we haven't yet got the data we need, but I'd rather have that pressure on than not.
It is from the right that the pressure for 24/7 vaccinations have come. It was from the right that the pressure for parliamentary scrutiny of new regs has come.
The right are driving better decision making. Starmer might learn something from that....if he wasn't dominated by the union position.
The right isn't driving better decision making they are just throwing mud and seeing what makes the news.
Otherwise more sites wins every time over 24 hour vaccinations.0 -
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I do worry about people's understanding of this point. "95% protected" doesn't mean every individual has 95% protection; it means 95% of people will have protection. So if ~10m old people get the jab, wait two weeks and then assumed they are free to resume their normal lives without any precautions, we could see some pretty horrible things start to happen.Malmesbury said:
14 million people is near as darn it 20% of the population.RobD said:
It can't be just looking at 1-4, as the cases are still at 80% after they've all been vaccinated.MaxPB said:
It's only looking at groups 1-4, I'd actually like to see that taken forwards for the whole country.RobD said:
Groups 1-4 will finish vaccinating in the middle of Feb. Does this model just assume vaccination will stop then?FF43 said:You can take or leave the assumptions behind this analysis - they are debatable - but the general thrust is plausible. The death rate will be cut rapidly as the most vulnerable are vaccinated; the hospitalisation rate will be cut roughly in half and will only come down further as the general population is vaccinated over a longer timeframe.
As hospitals are beyond capacity right now this suggests to me that significant social distancing measures will still be required months after the vulnerable group are vaccinated. There will be an argument about this.
https://twitter.com/henryhtapper/status/1348903187324006401
So COVID will be raging along in the other 80% of the population, even if those 14 million are 95% protected.
Quick back of an envelope calc suggests max ~100k deaths possible as a result if the message doesn't get through that you still need to isolate, and that's assuming 95% effectiveness after a single jab. Actually, I wonder if this was a factor in deciding to delay the second jab to 12 weeks - to make it easier to persuade people that they still aren't protected and need to stay inside?1 -
Even if you've had the jab you can still be infected and spread it around even if you are not yourself affected by it.Endillion said:
I do worry about people's understanding of this point. "95% protected" doesn't mean every individual has 95% protection; it means 95% of people will have protection. So if ~10m old people get the jab, wait two weeks and then assumed they are free to resume their normal lives without any precautions, we could see some pretty horrible things start to happen.Malmesbury said:
14 million people is near as darn it 20% of the population.RobD said:
It can't be just looking at 1-4, as the cases are still at 80% after they've all been vaccinated.MaxPB said:
It's only looking at groups 1-4, I'd actually like to see that taken forwards for the whole country.RobD said:
Groups 1-4 will finish vaccinating in the middle of Feb. Does this model just assume vaccination will stop then?FF43 said:You can take or leave the assumptions behind this analysis - they are debatable - but the general thrust is plausible. The death rate will be cut rapidly as the most vulnerable are vaccinated; the hospitalisation rate will be cut roughly in half and will only come down further as the general population is vaccinated over a longer timeframe.
As hospitals are beyond capacity right now this suggests to me that significant social distancing measures will still be required months after the vulnerable group are vaccinated. There will be an argument about this.
https://twitter.com/henryhtapper/status/1348903187324006401
So COVID will be raging along in the other 80% of the population, even if those 14 million are 95% protected.
Quick back of an envelope calc suggests max ~100k deaths possible as a result if the message doesn't get through that you still need to isolate, and that's assuming 95% effectiveness after a single jab. Actually, I wonder if this was a factor in deciding to delay the second jab to 12 weeks - to make it easier to persuade people that they still aren't protected and need to stay inside?
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Just when I thought today was going quite well
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1349776993106219010?s=200 -
Aspirin is an NSAID.geoffw said:
I used to take NSAIDs daily for an autoimmune condition, and it wouldn't even cross my mind that they don't reduce antibody response - dampening the immune system response is literally what they're supposed to do. I'm unclear why this wasn't obvious.0 -
Oh - thanks. Slaps forehead.Endillion said:
Aspirin is an NSAID.geoffw said:
I used to take NSAIDs daily for an autoimmune condition, and it wouldn't even cross my mind that they don't reduce antibody response - dampening the immune system response is literally what they're supposed to do. I'm unclear why this wasn't obvious.
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Tough mission and I don't blame you for bailing out. But tbf if you follow him on Twitter - as I guess you do - he probably doesn't look as big a plank to you as he does to most people. Because you are exposed to all his output not just the bad stuff. You get to see the gems as well as the dross.Andy_JS said:
I've been defending Toadmeister over the last few months but it's difficult this time.Mary_Batty said:
Ahhhh. To by Young, foolish again.kinabalu said:Breaking - Toby's been done by IPSO for saying that getting a cold gives protection against Covid.
He has not had a good pandemic.0 -
"76 per cent of people in Manaus had contracted coronavirus by October"Leon said:Just when I thought today was going quite well
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1349776993106219010?s=20
and
"at least one person who caught the virus in the first wave has been infected with the new variant. "
Sense of proportion?0 -
The question is later in the vaccination program - making getting the vaccine very, vey convenient. Because we need the highest possible take-up.LostPassword said:
The only caveat is possibly with the Pfizer vaccine, where the cold storage requirements might make running a smaller number of sites more intensively a better option than opening more sites.eek said:
24/7 vaccinations are insane - opening enough sites so that all vaccines arriving are used within an 8/12 hour day is a far better plan.Anabobazina said:
Regrettable as I find it, I think you have a point.Mortimer said:
This is exactly the position of the rebels on the right. In the absence of any opposition from Labour to endless lockdowns, the fiscal hawks want to ensure enough pressure is kept on the Govt.Anabobazina said:
Yes, I'm pretty much the opposite of a Baker Fan Boy, but he's a useful outrider in keeping government under pressure on exit strategy. We have seen on here that many seek to reduce covid risk to near zero, rather than balance it with other risks.Stocky said:Need a timetable out though.
Baker asking for a timetable is probably a bit previous given we haven't yet got the data we need, but I'd rather have that pressure on than not.
It is from the right that the pressure for 24/7 vaccinations have come. It was from the right that the pressure for parliamentary scrutiny of new regs has come.
The right are driving better decision making. Starmer might learn something from that....if he wasn't dominated by the union position.
The right isn't driving better decision making they are just throwing mud and seeing what makes the news.
Otherwise more sites wins every time over 24 hour vaccinations.
This is why it is sensible to look at the practicalities of this now.0 -
So there is actually a swing to No since the last pollTheScreamingEagles said:1 -
If it bleeds, it leads.geoffw said:
"76 per cent of people in Manaus had contracted coronavirus by October"Leon said:Just when I thought today was going quite well
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1349776993106219010?s=20
and
"at least one person who caught the virus in the first wave has been infected with the new variant. "
Sense of proportion?
If it doesn't bleed.. get a razor....0 -
BBC news at 6 still managing to put a negative spin on good vaccination numbers. Focusing on the difference in regions.0
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Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid1 -
Given we now seem to agree on everything (and I saw your very kind words last night too), I assume you're a big pineapple on pizza fan, too?Anabobazina said:
Regrettable as I find it, I think you have a point.Mortimer said:
This is exactly the position of the rebels on the right. In the absence of any opposition from Labour to endless lockdowns, the fiscal hawks want to ensure enough pressure is kept on the Govt.Anabobazina said:
Yes, I'm pretty much the opposite of a Baker Fan Boy, but he's a useful outrider in keeping government under pressure on exit strategy. We have seen on here that many seek to reduce covid risk to near zero, rather than balance it with other risks.Stocky said:Need a timetable out though.
Baker asking for a timetable is probably a bit previous given we haven't yet got the data we need, but I'd rather have that pressure on than not.
It is from the right that the pressure for 24/7 vaccinations have come. It was from the right that the pressure for parliamentary scrutiny of new regs has come.
The right are driving better decision making. Starmer might learn something from that....if he wasn't dominated by the union position.0 -
MinisculeHYUFD said:
So there is actually a swing to No since the last pollTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
This was a shot across the bows. To remind Boris that you can't run a country by ONLY listening to the science. Or you can, but you'll be ousted by the party in short order.0 -
Later in the vaccination program just add more vaccination sites.Malmesbury said:
The question is later in the vaccination program - making getting the vaccine very, vey convenient. Because we need the highest possible take-up.LostPassword said:
The only caveat is possibly with the Pfizer vaccine, where the cold storage requirements might make running a smaller number of sites more intensively a better option than opening more sites.eek said:
24/7 vaccinations are insane - opening enough sites so that all vaccines arriving are used within an 8/12 hour day is a far better plan.Anabobazina said:
Regrettable as I find it, I think you have a point.Mortimer said:
This is exactly the position of the rebels on the right. In the absence of any opposition from Labour to endless lockdowns, the fiscal hawks want to ensure enough pressure is kept on the Govt.Anabobazina said:
Yes, I'm pretty much the opposite of a Baker Fan Boy, but he's a useful outrider in keeping government under pressure on exit strategy. We have seen on here that many seek to reduce covid risk to near zero, rather than balance it with other risks.Stocky said:Need a timetable out though.
Baker asking for a timetable is probably a bit previous given we haven't yet got the data we need, but I'd rather have that pressure on than not.
It is from the right that the pressure for 24/7 vaccinations have come. It was from the right that the pressure for parliamentary scrutiny of new regs has come.
The right are driving better decision making. Starmer might learn something from that....if he wasn't dominated by the union position.
The right isn't driving better decision making they are just throwing mud and seeing what makes the news.
Otherwise more sites wins every time over 24 hour vaccinations.
This is why it is sensible to look at the practicalities of this now.
There is zero point doing 24/7 far more worthwhile going to a supermarket and doing all the staff there in 1 swoop.0 -
So 62% of SLab voters oppose independence and indyref2, so obviously the new SLab leader will have to be a Unionist like the majority of their voters.Carnyx said:
Still quite a few unionists - IIRC the recednt poll said 38% of SLAB votyers would vote for independence but I can't remember how many were DK. Which means that the SLAB leader can't win except by promising to support a referendum and freedom of conscience, I suppose. Of course, SLAB MSPs will go ape as many are despoerate for the cursus honorum (as they see it) that ends in the HoL.Mary_Batty said:
By how much? Who's still voting for Labour these days? Probably not those whose main concern is the union. And with people turning away from the Conservatives, would it do more than slightly reduce the flow back from the Conservatives?geoffw said:
Dunno, but the Scons would do better.Mary_Batty said:
Provocative thought: would Labour do worse with a pro-indy leader? Seems like a good chuck of their base has migrated to the SNP in the last 10-15 years.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Andy's Pro-Indy...MarqueeMark said:
They'd be better off selecting Andy Murray..... He's on the look-out for a new career.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Ian Murray, anyone? If having a Westminster MP as Scottish Leader is good enough for the Tories...TheScreamingEagles said:Gordon Brown next leader of SLAB, you read it here first, and probably only here.
I don't know, these are just questions. Doesn't seem like an obviously bad idea from a purely electoral calculus.
If they are going to get Tory tactical votes v the SNP they will also need to stick to an anti independence line.
Fortunately both likely successors, Sarwar and Ballie, take a stronger anti indyref2 line than Leonard did and both have ruled out any indyref2 for the rest of this Parliament
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18880342.scottish-labour--will-oppose-indyref2-2026/
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/jackie-baillie-scottish-labour-must-oppose-independence-and-indyref2-20052630 -
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Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid0 -
Physicists not statisticians. Is Dominic Cummings head of HR at Liverpool?TheScreamingEagles said:
You should see Liverpool's data analytic team.FrancisUrquhart said:Totally off topic....if you want to see how serious data analytics is getting in football now. These are the sort of people top teams are recruiting.
https://twitter.com/EightyFivePoint/status/1349725331977089024?s=19
Ian Graham PhD in Theoretical Physics from Cambridge, Tim Waskett, an astrophysicist, and Will Spearman has like ten degrees and worked for NASA.
That's just the head of the data team, they've got dozens of staff as well.
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Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
Considering its the children's equivalent of Die Hard there's 11 months for them to do it if they're going to do so.HYUFD said:0 -
That was probably the idea behind the planned relaxation of the rules around Christmas. That doesn't seem to have gone so well, even with the last minute tightening up.Mortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
This was a shot across the bows. To remind Boris that you can't run a country by ONLY listening to the science. Or you can, but you'll be ousted by the party in short order.1 -
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.2 -
Oh that's just dumb. How about his cameo in Ghosts Can't Do It while we're at it?HYUFD said:0 -
Ditto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
That'd be peak Broontervention.williamglenn said:
I'm not a fan, but he would overshadow Keir Starmer.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1349755355954372614noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=200 -
The solution to the problem of fishing folk not being able to send fresh fish to the EU is for the UK to rejoin the EU now. As that clearly won't happen there is in fact no solution to their problem. Fishing folk have two options:
- Give up. Which I think a biggish number will do.
- Hang on while the systems get up to speed, maybe get some support from government, and hope they don't permanently lose too many EU customers. After that accept a very substantial cost to business and lower incomes.
1 - Give up. Which I think a biggish number will do.
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noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=20
I wonder why Leonard has resigned now with most polls showing some Labour recovery in Scotland - Comres earlier today had them back in second place.noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=200 -
So does a pot plant.williamglenn said:
I'm not a fan, but he would overshadow Keir Starmer.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1349755355954372614noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=20
The bigger question surely is whether he would overshadow Marcus Rashford?2 -
I'm neither a member nor a voter, but I think Mr Baker should lie down in a darkened room for some time.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.
This isn't the time to be raising opening up plans.1 -
You also don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends. I'm not convinced you have much leverage over Steve Baker either.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.1 -
I was listening to the head of a haulage company in Eyemouth who confirmed the issues, but while annoyed he did seem to think that it would be resolved shortly.FF43 said:The solution to the problem of fishing folk not being able to send fresh fish to the EU is for the UK to rejoin the EU now. As that is clearly won't happen there is in fact no solution to the problem. Fishing folk have two options:
- Give up. Which I think a biggish number will do.
- Hang on while the systems get up to speed, maybe get some support from government, and hope they don't permanently lose too many EU customers. After that accept a very substantial cost to business and lower incomes.
Time for Rishi to step in with compensation while it is being sorted0 - Give up. Which I think a biggish number will do.
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The Tories were still 2nd on the constituency poll and SLab was still polling below what it got in 2016 in the final poll of Leonard's leadership todayjustin124 said:noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=20
I wonder why Leonard has resigned now with most polls showing some Labour recovery in Scotland - Comres earlier today had them back in second place.noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=200 -
He sort of does actually. The MPs take into account how they think the members will vote, what they think - and what voters do too - in weighing up how they act themselves in leadership votes.Endillion said:
You also don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends. I'm not convinced you have much leverage over Steve Baker either.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
I have a vote but more importantly he has been slapped down by fellow his mps as he made a quick retractionEndillion said:
You also don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends. I'm not convinced you have much leverage over Steve Baker either.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
Such people might as well join the SNP!Mary_Batty said:
Provocative thought: would Labour do worse with a pro-indy leader? Seems like a good chuck of their base has migrated to the SNP in the last 10-15 years.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Andy's Pro-Indy...MarqueeMark said:
They'd be better off selecting Andy Murray..... He's on the look-out for a new career.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Ian Murray, anyone? If having a Westminster MP as Scottish Leader is good enough for the Tories...TheScreamingEagles said:Gordon Brown next leader of SLAB, you read it here first, and probably only here.
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That is a bit fictitious from our most partizan fan boy of Johnson on here.Philip_Thompson said:
So does a pot plant.williamglenn said:
I'm not a fan, but he would overshadow Keir Starmer.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1349755355954372614noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=20
The bigger question surely is whether he would overshadow Marcus Rashford?
Who defends him on every subject.0 -
That's what matters in the end.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have a voteEndillion said:
You also don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends. I'm not convinced you have much leverage over Steve Baker either.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.
Millions of lifelong Conservatives going on strike from the party last year is what ended May's Premiership, not an MP VoNC.0 -
So are quite a lot of SLab voters, so..AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Andy's Pro-Indy...MarqueeMark said:
They'd be better off selecting Andy Murray..... He's on the look-out for a new career.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Ian Murray, anyone? If having a Westminster MP as Scottish Leader is good enough for the Tories...TheScreamingEagles said:Gordon Brown next leader of SLAB, you read it here first, and probably only here.
0 -
Very few people will find a time in the early hours more convenient than a location closer to them.Malmesbury said:
The question is later in the vaccination program - making getting the vaccine very, vey convenient. Because we need the highest possible take-up.LostPassword said:
The only caveat is possibly with the Pfizer vaccine, where the cold storage requirements might make running a smaller number of sites more intensively a better option than opening more sites.eek said:
24/7 vaccinations are insane - opening enough sites so that all vaccines arriving are used within an 8/12 hour day is a far better plan.Anabobazina said:
Regrettable as I find it, I think you have a point.Mortimer said:
This is exactly the position of the rebels on the right. In the absence of any opposition from Labour to endless lockdowns, the fiscal hawks want to ensure enough pressure is kept on the Govt.Anabobazina said:
Yes, I'm pretty much the opposite of a Baker Fan Boy, but he's a useful outrider in keeping government under pressure on exit strategy. We have seen on here that many seek to reduce covid risk to near zero, rather than balance it with other risks.Stocky said:Need a timetable out though.
Baker asking for a timetable is probably a bit previous given we haven't yet got the data we need, but I'd rather have that pressure on than not.
It is from the right that the pressure for 24/7 vaccinations have come. It was from the right that the pressure for parliamentary scrutiny of new regs has come.
The right are driving better decision making. Starmer might learn something from that....if he wasn't dominated by the union position.
The right isn't driving better decision making they are just throwing mud and seeing what makes the news.
Otherwise more sites wins every time over 24 hour vaccinations.
This is why it is sensible to look at the practicalities of this now.
This is just like polling stations. We have loads of polling stations open 7am-10pm. If you halved the number of polling stations to have them open 24 hours it would make it harder to vote for most people rather than easier.3 -
Far more fun to think where they could *add* a Trump cameo appropriately.Philip_Thompson said:
Considering its the children's equivalent of Die Hard there's 11 months for them to do it if they're going to do so.HYUFD said:
2 -
Sure, a Labour voter in a swing seat probably has more sway than a Tory member in a safe seat, given that it isn't particularly easy to deselect sitting Tory MPs. In either case, it's a second order effect.Philip_Thompson said:
He sort of does actually. The MPs take into account how they think the members will vote, what they think - and what voters do too - in weighing up how they act themselves in leadership votes.Endillion said:
You also don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends. I'm not convinced you have much leverage over Steve Baker either.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
The anti-Covid nasal spray is a more significant story.CarlottaVance said:Good news - and a reminder of how toxic Corbyn was:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349774795844554754?s=200 -
You're a Tory MEMBER as well as voter !!Philip_Thompson said:
Ditto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
HYUFD:TheScreamingEagles said:
We'll need a more mobile set of goalposts!!1 -
They have!justin124 said:
Such people might as well join the SNP!Mary_Batty said:
Provocative thought: would Labour do worse with a pro-indy leader? Seems like a good chuck of their base has migrated to the SNP in the last 10-15 years.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Andy's Pro-Indy...MarqueeMark said:
They'd be better off selecting Andy Murray..... He's on the look-out for a new career.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Ian Murray, anyone? If having a Westminster MP as Scottish Leader is good enough for the Tories...TheScreamingEagles said:Gordon Brown next leader of SLAB, you read it here first, and probably only here.
0 -
Have you not stated on quite a few occasions that you wish to see Johnson depart pretty soon?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
Blimey, are you a Tory MP Big G? You hid that well!Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
So do I - on who replaces him. If you remember from a couple of years ago, the vote of no confidence is triggered by letters to Graham Brady, and then voted on by simple majority. In both cases, MPs only. And then the defeated leader can't then stand again in the subsequent election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have a vote but more importantly he has been slapped down by fellow his mps as he made a quick retractionEndillion said:
You also don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends. I'm not convinced you have much leverage over Steve Baker either.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
HYUFD said:
The Tories were still 2nd on the constituency poll and SLab was still polling below what it got in 2016 in the final poll of Leonard's leadership todayjustin124 said:noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=20
I wonder why Leonard has resigned now with most polls showing some Labour recovery in Scotland - Comres earlier today had them back in second place.noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=20
But it did show Labour back as the second largest party in the Scottish Parliament .HYUFD said:
The Tories were still 2nd on the constituency poll and SLab was still polling below what it got in 2016 in the final poll of Leonard's leadership todayjustin124 said:noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=20
I wonder why Leonard has resigned now with most polls showing some Labour recovery in Scotland - Comres earlier today had them back in second place.noneoftheabove said:
I guess that is pretty obviously true, but why would he want the job?HYUFD said:Adonis switches from his Blair swoonfest to back Gordon Brown to succeed Leonard as Scottish Labour leader
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1349759811706101761?s=20
0 -
I think there is a dozen or so new bureaucratic steps to get fresh food into the EU. Some of the issues with them relate to immature systems; some are due to a lack of resources (those missing customs agents etc), some a lack of experience in the new bureaucracy. Eventually people who are prepared to put with this stuff will get on top of it, but it doesn't look a few days' project. More like six months or more. Where are those fishing boats and companies going to be at that point?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I was listening to the head of a haulage company in Eyemouth who confirmed the issues, but while annoyed he did seem to think that it would be resolved shortly.FF43 said:The solution to the problem of fishing folk not being able to send fresh fish to the EU is for the UK to rejoin the EU now. As that is clearly won't happen there is in fact no solution to the problem. Fishing folk have two options:
- Give up. Which I think a biggish number will do.
- Hang on while the systems get up to speed, maybe get some support from government, and hope they don't permanently lose too many EU customers. After that accept a very substantial cost to business and lower incomes.
Time for Rishi to step in with compensation while it is being sorted
Including this one, that doesn't get mentioned in the Border Operating Model, probably because those writing didn't know about it.
https://twitter.com/ColdChainShane/status/13497018287625994240 - Give up. Which I think a biggish number will do.
-
Since 2004, except for when Theresa May was leader.kinabalu said:
You're a Tory MEMBER as well as voter !!Philip_Thompson said:
Ditto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
-
I apologise for not joining BluestBlue in liking that, I'll try to work harder on joining the reputation bandwagon for you.Roger said:
BluestBlue. If you persist in 'liking' my posts I will have to consider my options . As I'm sure you understand the reputational damage is enormousRoger said:I don't think Johnson has much to worry about. Starmer has done everything but wear an 'I love Boris' badge.
1 -
It is not Boris I am defending here, it is outright rejection of Bakers commentsjustin124 said:
Have you not stated on quite a few occasions that you wish to see Johnson depart pretty soon?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
No - but I have had my chances and am in touch with severalMortimer said:
Blimey, are you a Tory MP Big G? You hid that well!Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
Well, that’s Toby Young for you. Weirdly I think he asks a lot of the right questions. The trouble lies in the part where he doesn’t seem to be interested whether his answers are true or not.Pulpstar said:
Blimey you have to come out with a real whopper to get the wrong side of IPSO as a journalist.kinabalu said:Breaking - Toby's been done by IPSO for saying that getting a cold gives protection against Covid.
He has not had a good pandemic.4 -
Declinists.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC news at 6 still managing to put a negative spin on good vaccination numbers. Focusing on the difference in regions.
1 -
On the subject Baker has raised I am 100% behind Boris and he will drive more doubters to Boris if he continues his viewsEndillion said:
So do I - on who replaces him. If you remember from a couple of years ago, the vote of no confidence is triggered by letters to Graham Brady, and then voted on by simple majority. In both cases, MPs only. And then the defeated leader can't then stand again in the subsequent election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have a vote but more importantly he has been slapped down by fellow his mps as he made a quick retractionEndillion said:
You also don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends. I'm not convinced you have much leverage over Steve Baker either.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
Farknell Big G you are a member still? After all that whining and moaning? Wowsers.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
Sort of on topic I have heard the handling of Covid-19 has triggered at least five letters to Sir Graham Brady, with a few more keeping their powders dry.
It hasn't been easy defending the indefensible then seeing the government performing u-turn after u-turn.
Plenty of Tory MPs know voting against the free schools meal thing will come back to haunt them at the next election even before Boris Johnson committed his u turns.
The perception around contracts for mates is something that is also being noted.0 -
If you're not a member, you can't threaten to resign....TOPPING said:
Farknell Big G you are a member still? After all that whining and moaning? Wowsers.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership. It really takes off in the summer of 2019 and doesn't look back.TheScreamingEagles said:0
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I can't quite work this out. But there was a thing in reporting the court case over the need for anonymity for his accusers. Is this the issue here? i.e. submitting the documents may well breach that anonymity.CarlottaVance said:0 -
And he can only resign once. (Unless he goes and rejoins just in case.)IanB2 said:
If you're not a member, you can't threaten to resign....TOPPING said:
Farknell Big G you are a member still? After all that whining and moaning? Wowsers.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And I am a member and reject his interventionMortimer said:
Sky don't get a say in when Boris' leadership ends.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe that is why he withdrew his comments almost as soon as he had made themMortimer said:
SB understands the politics around Covid much better than Sky do....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky
Steve Baker's coup lasted two hours
How to misjudge the politics over covid
The constituency Baker is speaking to very much do.0 -
So true, let's hope SLab rise to the challenge as they've done several times before.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1349780911240458241?s=201 -
I do not doubt than Boris is a big factor and it is why when covid is on the wain I would like to see Rishi as PMFF43 said:It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership.
TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
There was a time, we may still be in it, when you could be certain that a policy endorsed by a minister as not changing in the morning would be reversed within days.TheScreamingEagles said:Sort of on topic I have heard the handling of Covid-19 has triggered at least five letters to Sir Graham Brady, with a few more keeping their powders dry.
It hasn't been easy defending the indefensible then seeing the government performing u-turn after u-turn.
Plenty of Tory MPs know voting against the free schools meal thing will come back to haunt them at the next election even before Boris Johnson committed his u turns.
The perception around contracts for mates is something that is also being noted.
That surely is not a good place for a government to be. And not good for an MP to be a member of such a government.0 -
The liftoff in Yes support clearly begins in the autumn of 2017 and continues from there.FF43 said:It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership. It really takes off in the summer of 2019 and doesn't look back.
TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
But if you've set up the Freedom-to-lie-Union, you might not be aware that even IPSO has to step in sometimes.Pulpstar said:
Blimey you have to come out with a real whopper to get the wrong side of IPSO as a journalist.kinabalu said:Breaking - Toby's been done by IPSO for saying that getting a cold gives protection against Covid.
He has not had a good pandemic.0 -
I mentioned earlier the moment Boris Johnson made himself Minister for the Union support for Scottish Independence has surged.FF43 said:It is impressive that the explosion in support for independence is so closely aligned with Boris Johnson's premiership. It really takes off in the summer of 2019 and doesn't look back.
TheScreamingEagles said:
He's Minister for Scottish Independence more like.0 -
Roger, I only 'liked' your post because PB has no 'love' button.Roger said:
BluestBlue. If you persist in 'liking' my posts I will have to consider my options . As I'm sure you understand the reputational damage is enormousRoger said:I don't think Johnson has much to worry about. Starmer has done everything but wear an 'I love Boris' badge.
I hope that clarifies my position.2 -
With the resignation of Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour must choose within this pool
Jackie Baillie
Claire Baker
Claudia Beamish
Neil Bibby
Sarah Boyack
James Kelly
Daniel Johnson
Mark Griffin
Rhoda Grant
Monica Lennon
Pauline McNeill
Alex Rowley
Anas Sarwar
Colin Smyth
Their recent "we thought we reached our lowest point but the new one managed to drop further" tradition may still continue at this rate.
1 -
Their mates missing out?TheScreamingEagles said:
The perception around contracts for mates is something that is also being noted.0 -
I think the implication may be that various aspects of Salmond's behaviour over the years have been known to Sturgeon which would certainly be a sticky wicket for her. However that would mean AS admitting to actions so reprehensible that Sturgeon should have been duty bound to act on the information.Carnyx said:
I can't quite work this out. But there was a thing in reporting the court case over the need for anonymity for his accusers. Is this the issue here? i.e. submitting the documents may well breach that anonymity.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Concidentally, I spotted an earlier tweet -linking to a recent paper re anonymity for complainants re sexual offences being actually unknown to Scots Law. Which is a big surprise to me, if correct (can't see it all).Theuniondivvie said:So true, let's hope SLab rise to the challenge as they've done several times before.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/1349780911240458241?s=20
https://www.euppublishing.com/doi/abs/10.3366/elr.2020.06580 -
That's one of the issues I thought it might be referencing.Carnyx said:
I can't quite work this out. But there was a thing in reporting the court case over the need for anonymity for his accusers. Is this the issue here? i.e. submitting the documents may well breach that anonymity.CarlottaVance said:
There maybe a confidentially clause in the deal he agreed with the Scottish government.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/13/alex-salmond-awarded-512000-payout-after-botched-investigation0 -
Incorrect, there are several topics that excite PB's collective love button so it must exist.BluestBlue said:
Roger, I only 'liked' your post because PB has no 'love' button.Roger said:
BluestBlue. If you persist in 'liking' my posts I will have to consider my options . As I'm sure you understand the reputational damage is enormousRoger said:I don't think Johnson has much to worry about. Starmer has done everything but wear an 'I love Boris' badge.
I hope that clarifies my position.0 -
Only possible because of streaming. People with hard copies on VHS or DVD will be able to continue watching the original version.HYUFD said:0 -
Five?TheScreamingEagles said:Sort of on topic I have heard the handling of Covid-19 has triggered at least five letters to Sir Graham Brady, with a few more keeping their powders dry.
It hasn't been easy defending the indefensible then seeing the government performing u-turn after u-turn.
Plenty of Tory MPs know voting against the free schools meal thing will come back to haunt them at the next election even before Boris Johnson committed his u turns.
The perception around contracts for mates is something that is also being noted.
Were they all by Charles Walker or did Brady send one to himself?0 -
Of course in reality even if the SNP got 100% in May Boris would still not grant them indyref2, even if politically that might be challenging he is not going to even consider granting any indyref unless No is back clearly in front.Theuniondivvie said:
He will stick to his line 2014 was a once in a generation vote and as Westminster is sovereign nothing Sturgeon can do about it until the next UK general election in 2024 when she has to hope Starmer needs her support to govern0
