Trump’s desperate attempt to bully the Georgia Secretary of State shows the lengths he’ll go to hang

Pelosi re elected Speaker of the House of Representatives

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1346007219427553281?s=20

https://twitter.com/Slate/status/1346015355454558208?s=20

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Leon said:

One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?

And so Boris will, alas, close the schools

But not in Wales yet

My sons school is back today though it is a private school (he is IT director not a pupil for clarification)

and my grandchildren's primary gores back on Wednesday

Wales will follow. We’re all heading into Tier 462b, where we are stapled to our sofas and our eyelids are sealed shut with superglue. Special self-driving food vans will park outside our homes, extend tubes through the open windows, and pipe hot broth - humorously nicknamed ‘Boris broth’ - into our gaping mouths.

And we all plug ourselves into the virtual reality called "the Matrix" so that we can go on holiday, watch cricket and argue about Brexit without worrying about lockdown. Or something.

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.

This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.

Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:

1 How many people it will vaccinate this week?
2 How many people it will vaccinate next week?
3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month?
4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day?
5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?

No one is ‘luxuriating in misery’. No one on this site WANTS bad things to happen. But something truly, historically awful IS happening, and the situation is likely to get considerably worse before - God willing - it improves.

On a clear-eyed site literally devoted to forecasting, ignoring this, to keep you cheerful, is beyond futile.

Ignoring negative aspects to remain in a good mood is the opposite of futile. The futility lies in becoming depressed by circumstances that lie totally outside your control.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1346033731979649027?s=20
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1346037907107229697?s=20

Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.

But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.

The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.

But Brexit...

This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.

This was Kier's big strategic mistake. As the scales fall from people's eyes there was an opportunity as you suggest. Build up the examples where brexit has done the opposite of what was promised (ask the fishing industry what that is like!) and play on the clear understanding Red Wall voters already have that this government and this PM are lying to them.

The problem for Labour is that they voted for the deal. Its problems are their problems because they gave their consent to it.Yes I fully accept that people will eventually rage at the Tories for lying to them. But Labour won't benefit as cleanly and obviously as they would have done by not supporting this lie.

Fairliered said:

If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?

I have a friend who went to a NYE party. She’s 20. Her excuse was ‘I’m only 20 once and I’ve already lost a year of my youth’.

It’s quite hard to argue with that, even if her behaviour was clearly wrong.

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1346033731979649027?s=20
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1346037907107229697?s=20

Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.

But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.

The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.

But Brexit...

This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.

This was Kier's big strategic mistake. As the scales fall from people's eyes there was an opportunity as you suggest. Build up the examples where brexit has done the opposite of what was promised (ask the fishing industry what that is like!) and play on the clear understanding Red Wall voters already have that this government and this PM are lying to them.

The problem for Labour is that they voted for the deal. Its problems are their problems because they gave their consent to it.Yes I fully accept that people will eventually rage at the Tories for lying to them. But Labour won't benefit as cleanly and obviously as they would have done by not supporting this lie.

Agree 100%. Labour should have abstained.

Flatlander said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Anabobazina said:

I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.

This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.

Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:

1 How many people it will vaccinate this week?
2 How many people it will vaccinate next week?
3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month?
4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day?
5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?

To answer your questions:
1. No
2. No
3. No
4. No
5. No

This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.

To be fair, they probably don't know exactly how many doses they'll have by 1st March from either Pfizer or AZN. It was supposed to be 30 million already.

As long as they keep up with supply, that's all they can do.

I'm fairly sure Hugh Pym said 15 million doses of AZN have been produced, but it takes 3 weeks from production for them to be approved for release, but if correct by the end of January there should be more than enough vaccine to go around for the 2 million a week target. I expect we will hit that rate of vaccination by the end of the month.

Gaussian said:

Fairliered said:

If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?

How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"

Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.

Pulpstar said:

kinabalu said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

Even money is too short for me here, but the smoke signlas from the early vote are good for the Democrats here.

I understand. I was a GoP backer at evens ubtil recently but I think Trump may have turned it round for the blue team.

I'm on the Dem double at 3.5. Can't seem to put a foot wrong these days.

Now that's what you call tempting fate.

Even down to the cubans voting in droves for Trump in Florida !

And I had Price in the arrows!

Soon comes the Fall.

Gaussian said:

Fairliered said:

If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?

How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"

Check details from track and trace.

Carnyx said:

Gaussian said:

Fairliered said:

If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?

How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"

Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.

That wasn't illegal, and indeed encouraged. Sadly.

Carnyx said:

Gaussian said:

Fairliered said:

If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?

How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"

Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.

I am not sure anyone's passport would show evidence of a Spanish holiday. Though you would be right for other parts of the world.

TOPPING said:

RochdalePioneers said:

We can all do something to prevent total societal collapse. Stay At Home. It's catchy, it's effective, it's almost nostalgic.

Why isn't Shagger bringing back one of his greatest hits?

He is. Or rather the Highways Agency is. It's on every other gantry on the motorways.

The name for Tier 4 after all is Stay At Home.

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Anabobazina said:

I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.

This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.

Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:

1 How many people it will vaccinate this week?
2 How many people it will vaccinate next week?
3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month?
4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day?
5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?

The government hasn't got a clue about any of those. It's definitely flying blind on vaccination numbers right now.

Indeed. Hence the attempts to distract from those questions, and people are buying it.

The only possible answer to those questions is

1-5 As many as possible, given the vaccine supply.

So far the vaccination program with the existing vaccine has managed

944,539 between the 8th and 27th of December.

So, even making no allowance for spin up time, getting supply chain issues sorted out, which is leading to accelerating rates, we have a rate of 50K per day.

It should be noted that this rate is constrained by vaccine supply, currently. That is, the vaccinators are running out of vaccine rather than time to vaccinate.

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.

This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.

Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:

1 How many people it will vaccinate this week?
2 How many people it will vaccinate next week?
3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month?
4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day?
5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?

No one is ‘luxuriating in misery’. No one on this site WANTS bad things to happen. But something truly, historically awful IS happening, and the situation is likely to get considerably worse before - God willing - it improves.

On a clear-eyed site literally devoted to forecasting, ignoring this, to keep you cheerful, is beyond futile.

There's a genuine issue that some powewful people do buy into the "negative thinking makes bad things happen" guff.

Donald Trump has been strongly influenced by the "Power of Positive Thinking" preacher, Norman Peale;

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/24/894967922/norman-vincent-peale-was-a-conservative-hero-known-well-beyond-his-era?t=1609759840534

You can see echoes of it in BoJo's philosophy as well.

And it's possible to see how it works in fields where success is all about persuading other people, but against an objective reality (like a pandemic) it's exactly the wrong thing to do.

Fairliered said:

Gaussian said:

Fairliered said:

If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?

How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"

Check details from track and trace.

I wonder how many people are actually using the app. Not many I know are.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!

As I said the other day this has also been my experience with my 13 year old son. He has flourished with online learning and, much as I would like to claim credit, I think it is down to a combination of him being able to work at his own pace and excellent systems and application by his school and teachers.

Gaussian said:

Carnyx said:

Gaussian said:

Fairliered said:

If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?

How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"

Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.

That wasn't illegal, and indeed encouraged. Sadly.

Have they started stamping UK passports in the EU yet?

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Anabobazina said:

I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.

This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.

Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:

1 How many people it will vaccinate this week?
2 How many people it will vaccinate next week?
3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month?
4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day?
5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?

To answer your questions:
1. No
2. No
3. No
4. No
5. No

This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.

A slightly less partisan answer is as many as possible but the control will be the supply of vaccine, not its distribution. It is, however, the only important question at the moment and more clarity about where we are with vaccine deliveries would be helpful.

If not having a clue is partisan I am open to evidence from you that it does have a clue.

Well, off the top of my head, the UK was the first to get a vaccine approved. We currently have more people vaccinated than the EU. We entered into speculative contracts that should ensure a good supply of vaccine for this country. We have tested more people than any other country in Europe now, more than Spain and Italy put together, for example.

So they do have a clue, several in fact. And they are making mistakes too. Not announcing school closures last week is one of the more recent ones.

https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1346051440368869376

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Leon said:

One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?

And so Boris will, alas, close the schools

But not in Wales yet

My sons school is back today though it is a private school (he is IT director not a pupil for clarification)

and my grandchildren's primary gores back on Wednesday

My granddaughter (post grad at Sheffield) has an on-line lecture today. Her brother, primary school teacher, is on a Training Day and his wife, secondary teacher is waiting to be told when/if/how she restarts.

Meanwhile my grandchildren in Bangkok, where things have flared up again, are on-line again next week.

Malmesbury said:

A prediction - when the numbers come out this week, the COVID deniers will use the argument that since the case numbers are below the peak of the 29th (Caused by Christmas Effect), there is no problem.

My brother firmly belongs to this Covid denier group.
He is constantly posting on Facebook about how all restrictions should be ended, and posting either false or misleading statistics about how it really isn't that bad.

He completely misses the point that many statistics aren't being submitted at the moment, and the fact that these deaths and hospitalisations are WITH current restrictions, no doubt assuming they'd somehow would stay the same if everyone was just 'let out' again.

He's mostly lost it, but that's what watching crap videos on YouTube will do to you.

For anyone wanting to help, I see that "Vaccine Volunteer" has now been added to the NHS Responders' page.

https://www.goodsamapp.org/NHSvolunteerresponders

Pro_Rata said:

I think the professional people involved in this have done some tallying and the 12 week gap to second vaccination is some mix of supply expectation, vaccination best practice, and the ability to cover the priority list (25m) in the time. So, 25m comfortably in 12 weeks, just over 2m a week, but you'd like to see that pace reached by the middle of this month.

Government are being cagey, but the clue to their plans is, I reckon, in their plans.

Yeah the Imperial College modelling for curtailing the effects of the new variant calls for a rate of 2 million a week. I doubt that that number was plucked out of the air.

Vaccination is going to be a bit like the testing with the press and public perplexed that the target is not met on day one, but it got there in the end and has continued ramping up to levels which are quite extraordinary. PCR testing capacity is now 720,000 test per day.

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The bloke who only days ago was whining about Sturgeon's puritanical approach to Covid; thick hypocrite doesn't begin to cover it.

https://twitter.com/LabourRichard/status/1345739229134024704?s=20

What was he saying before? I didn't notice.

'Covid: Nicola Sturgeon's puritanical, authoritarian streak means pubs and restaurants are being unfairly treated – Richard Leonard'

https://tinyurl.com/yac2cxr5

(It's The Hootsmon just in case you're sensibly fastidious about these things)

Theuniondivvie said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The bloke who only days ago was whining about Sturgeon's puritanical approach to Covid; thick hypocrite doesn't begin to cover it.

https://twitter.com/LabourRichard/status/1345739229134024704?s=20

What was he saying before? I didn't notice.

'Covid: Nicola Sturgeon's puritanical, authoritarian streak means pubs and restaurants are being unfairly treated – Richard Leonard'

https://tinyurl.com/yac2cxr5

(It's The Hootsmon just in case you're sensibly fastidious about these things)

Ta - and this came up in the tweets in response, too

https://twitter.com/LabourRichard/status/1336351922870231047

rural_voter said:

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NickPalmer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.

They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.

I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!

I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.

We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.

But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.

Is there anywhere that one can bet on how long lockdowns, masks, etc will last?

I'm getting a bit fed up of the distorted 'science' and brainwashing and at a guess only 4-5 people on PB are also sceptical. But if I can make some ££ from it, it would cheer me up no end.

Nothing at the bookies no. But eye might be able to oblige. What bet do you want?

kle4 said:

My word, Assange is still in the news?

Honestly I feel like whether he gets extradited is pretty moot to all except lawyers and Assange himself. Hes faced punishment for breaching bail as is only right and proper and the US stuff is not of much interest anymore.

What a waste of £11m+ UK policing costs, however many millions his trials cost and £3m+ Ecuadorian state funds.

HYUFD said:

South Korea records more deaths than births for the first time ever in the nation with the lowest birthrate in the world
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55526450

The inevitable consequence of the combination of 21st century education and work opportunities for women, with cultural attitudes towards marriage and childrearing from the 19th.

Boris Johnson says he had "misgivings" after shutting primary schools during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

Speaking on a visit to a London hospital, the Prime Minister said: "It's very important to understand that back in March, one of the things I look back on with the greatest misgivings was the closure of primary schools because it's so important for young people to get an education.

"That's why closing primary schools is, for all of us, a last resort. That's why we are looking at everything else we can possibly do to avoid that.

From the Graun feed at 11:44:

"Here are some more lines from Boris Johnson’s interview for broadcasters at Chase Farm Hospital in north London this morning.

Johnson claimed that teachers were at no more risk of getting coronavirus than anyone else. He said:
The risk to teachers, and of course we will do everything we can to protect teachers, but the risk to teachers is no greater than it is to anyone else. The reasons for wanting to keep schools open I think are very, very powerful"

If hundreds of thousands of students are sitting around at home, going mad, why doesn’t HMG train them all up to be vaccinators?

They’re young, fit, smart, and the least likely to get ill. It will also allow them to socialise and flirt, at least a bit. So they don’t go mad. Win win.

MaxPB said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!

That's great, though I think LFH works better for middle class families with parents that WFH or working class immigrant families where education is a the major priority for children. For white working class families I can imagine the focus on education is much more lax outside of the school setting.

Grandson One, a primary teacher in one of Basildon's 'less nice' areas reports very mixed support, and indeed awareness, from parents. A bit more help from the DfE might be good, too.

MaxPB said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!

That's great, though I think LFH works better for middle class families with parents that WFH or working class immigrant families where education is a the major priority for children. For white working class families I can imagine the focus on education is much more lax outside of the school setting.

For example, for children of 1st generation immigrants, the immersion in English at school, as early as possible, is massive factor in acquiring good English skills.

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Mandalorian is the most-pirated TV show of 2020

https://www.cnet.com/news/the-mandalorian-is-the-most-pirated-tv-show-of-2020/

I binge watched the first 4 episodes last night. It was ok, nothing more.

It gets better. Season 2 is much better than Season 1, but still rather formulaic, but then that's Star Wars isn't really.....Cowboys and Indians in space.

In truth its all about the Baby Yoda.

contrarian said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Boris Johnson says he had "misgivings" after shutting primary schools during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

Speaking on a visit to a London hospital, the Prime Minister said: "It's very important to understand that back in March, one of the things I look back on with the greatest misgivings was the closure of primary schools because it's so important for young people to get an education.

"That's why closing primary schools is, for all of us, a last resort. That's why we are looking at everything else we can possibly do to avoid that.

In this, Johnson is absolutely correct.

He is, but I fear he is now out of choices. The virus is rampant. And collapsing the NHS. What do you suggest as an alternative?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Boris Johnson says he had "misgivings" after shutting primary schools during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

Speaking on a visit to a London hospital, the Prime Minister said: "It's very important to understand that back in March, one of the things I look back on with the greatest misgivings was the closure of primary schools because it's so important for young people to get an education.

"That's why closing primary schools is, for all of us, a last resort. That's why we are looking at everything else we can possibly do to avoid that.

Why is he even visting a hospital - aren't they busy enough without having to deal with a Prime Ministerial visit?

Malmesbury said:

MaxPB said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!

That's great, though I think LFH works better for middle class families with parents that WFH or working class immigrant families where education is a the major priority for children. For white working class families I can imagine the focus on education is much more lax outside of the school setting.

For example, for children of 1st generation immigrants, the immersion in English at school, as early as possible, is massive factor in acquiring good English skills.

Yes, absolutely. Even for my sister and I growing up in a multi-generational household where English wasn't spoken at home as the main language school was definitely the first place where we came into contact with English properly. From what I can tell it was also around that time that our household went from our own language first to English being primarily spoken at home. One of my earliest memories of if my grandfather speaking perfect Queen's English to my sister and I and being really confused that he could.

Leon said:

If hundreds of thousands of students are sitting around at home, going mad, why doesn’t HMG train them all up to be vaccinators?

They’re young, fit, smart, and the least likely to get ill. It will also allow them to socialise and flirt, at least a bit. So they don’t go mad. Win win.

Do you think people getting vaccinated should have to endure chat up lines from spotty little herberts on top of everything else?

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1346033731979649027?s=20
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1346037907107229697?s=20

Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.

But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.

The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.

But Brexit...

This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.

This is a big question. Perhaps the biggest. If - or let's face it when - Brexit disappoints on material matters, will the Buzz that many Red Wall leavers feel about "taking back control" from Brussels fade away? If it does, then this plus the lack of "unpatriotic" Corbyn should see Labour bouncing back up there. But a cautionary note is that these seats have been trending Con for some time.

Brexit isn't going to disappoint in material matters. It can't. Unless another useless money pit is invented to spew money into (there's Covid, but everywhere has that). Looking for it and hoping that it will is going to result in a lot of angst and disappointment for you - I seriously wouldn't bother.

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1346059506132914176?s=20

362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.

363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.

Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.

So, he voluntarily imprisoned himself in a small apartment for seven years, which made him go mad. And now he’s mad, he’s unfit to be deported to stand trial?

Did I get that right?

Yep...

Iranian media reported on Monday that the country’s elite Revolutionary Guards navy has seized a South Korean vessel “for polluting the Persian Gulf with chemicals”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/04/iran-resumes-enriching-uranium-breach-nuclear-deal

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NickPalmer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.

They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.

I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!

I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.

We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.

But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.

I am no doubt seething with anti BJ prejudice, but I think his deep unwillingness to front up bad news is more of a factor than any problems with his beliefs (whatever they might be). Very unChurchillian.

And it's a shame. Through gritted synapses I recognize that he is gifted with an ability to reach people. He could deliver the "At this time of great peril for our nation we must make a supreme national effort" speech that imo is required. But no. Cometh the Hour flunketh the Man. So far anyway. Maybe this evening or tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

Indeed. As others have posted, as well as being gifted with the ability to reach people he's cursed with an almost pathetic desire to be liked. As a result he cannot cope with the idea of giving bad news.

I wonder how he managed to leave his various wives and other paramours? Or did they discover his peccadillos and leave him?

MaxPB said:

Malmesbury said:

MaxPB said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!

That's great, though I think LFH works better for middle class families with parents that WFH or working class immigrant families where education is a the major priority for children. For white working class families I can imagine the focus on education is much more lax outside of the school setting.

For example, for children of 1st generation immigrants, the immersion in English at school, as early as possible, is massive factor in acquiring good English skills.

Yes, absolutely. Even for my sister and I growing up in a multi-generational household where English wasn't spoken at home as the main language school was definitely the first place where we came into contact with English properly. From what I can tell it was also around that time that our household went from our own language first to English being primarily spoken at home. One of my earliest memories of if my grandfather speaking perfect Queen's English to my sister and I and being really confused that he could.

Please excuse the pedantry (and since we're on the subject of English), but that should be "... speaking perfect Queen's English to my sister and me" since the pronoun in question is part of the (indirect) object of the sentence, not the subject. That's one grammar mistake that, sadly, I know, always winds me up a little bit!

FrancisUrquhart said:

Iranian media reported on Monday that the country’s elite Revolutionary Guards navy has seized a South Korean vessel “for polluting the Persian Gulf with chemicals”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/04/iran-resumes-enriching-uranium-breach-nuclear-deal

That’s what the vessel was doing, or what the Iranians intend to use it for in future?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Would the nightingale hospitals by any good as vaccination centres? At least people could have a lie down and a cup of tea if they come over queasy.

Depends if they have to use them as hospitals. Don't really want to mix the two.

My father (late 80s) has been invited today. Local football stadium.

OldKingCole said:

kinabalu said:

Theuniondivvie said:

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

NickPalmer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.

They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.

I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!

I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.

We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.

But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.

I am no doubt seething with anti BJ prejudice, but I think his deep unwillingness to front up bad news is more of a factor than any problems with his beliefs (whatever they might be). Very unChurchillian.

And it's a shame. Through gritted synapses I recognize that he is gifted with an ability to reach people. He could deliver the "At this time of great peril for our nation we must make a supreme national effort" speech that imo is required. But no. Cometh the Hour flunketh the Man. So far anyway. Maybe this evening or tomorrow. Or Wednesday.

Indeed. As others have posted, as well as being gifted with the ability to reach people he's cursed with an almost pathetic desire to be liked. As a result he cannot cope with the idea of giving bad news.

I wonder how he managed to leave his various wives and other paramours? Or did they discover his peccadillos and leave him?

A reverse Cassandra complex, if one wanted to follow him and be all classical.

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

If hundreds of thousands of students are sitting around at home, going mad, why doesn’t HMG train them all up to be vaccinators?

They’re young, fit, smart, and the least likely to get ill. It will also allow them to socialise and flirt, at least a bit. So they don’t go mad. Win win.

"Gosh you have SUCH a large bicep. I can't miss!"

This sort of thing?

I rather think that the students would be more interested in each other than the sort of people being targeted for immunization for the first several weeks.

STV understands Scottish schools to be online only until 1st Feb.

Thinking about the prospects of the NHS overloading (which is very plausibly imminent), I had a quick and dirty look at the numbers involved.

At the moment, it looks like a little over 40,000 cases declared against specimen date seems to equate to about 3000 hospitalisations per day. Using Malmesbury's figures for proportion of hospitalisation per age category, the long-running percentage of hospitalisations that die (27.8% in a scarily reliable average during the second wave) and the figures for the proportion of each age band that make up the deaths, and assuming it will scale up as the declared cases scale up, you get this table:



All laden with assumptions, of course (such as: are we catching a constant fraction of the true cases in our reported cases?)

We can then assume that deaths per age band will rise if hospital assistance isn't available, towards the hospitalised numbers (This is a more fraught assumption. On the one hand, not all deaths from covid are in hospital. On the other, not everyone hospitalised would die without help, although we do know they were hospitalised for a reason. I'd suspect the number would go from around 100% of the hospitalised figures at the eldest end of the scale to a distinctly smaller fraction at the bottom - although I doubt it would ever go much below a quarter, given that around a sixth of those children hospitalised need ICU, and we'd assume everyone who needs intensive care is a goner without support. That would leave as many as 90% of hospitalised children who didn't need ICU recovering without any support, which would seem optimistic, so that would be a top end)

We can use a rough rule of thumb that 1500 hospitalisations per day can be reliably coped with (when they reach saturation), as under 1500 has seen hospital populations descending and over 1500 has seen them climbing. Rough rule of thumb.

Assume triage is done to prioritise the youngest. Count upwards on the hospitalisations numbers on the daily row until you get to 1500. Every row above that has deaths actually tending towards hospitalisation numbers rather than actual deaths. (Further source of error: this will not be uniform over the country. Some areas might need to triage down to a third or quarter; others may not need to triage at all)

Make whatever assumptions you see fit on vaccination numbers, counting down. If you assume all over 85s are protected, remove this row. All over 75s, do the same. And so on. (Not all will be protected - maybe around 70%, but we're talking rough rule of thumb)

The scary thing is - if we level out at 40,000 cases reported per day, AND somehow the hospitals don't oversaturate, we're still looking at around 25,000 deaths in January.

Remember that the deaths column on the table as it stands is on the assumption that the hospitals don't overload. The hospitalisations figure would show the absolute maximum if all hospitals turned everyone away (not happening).