I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
Rightly, IMO, they fundamentally dislike taking away liberties.
I think that is a fair point, but we can all see the numbers (and of course they are ones in the rear view mirror). It is clear with these new variants, we can't contain it without much stricter rules.
There is an irreducible minimum of ~ 10 to 15 per cent who are not going to obey the rules (whatever the rules are).
At some point, you reach the stage where "the rules" make little difference because the transmission is being driven by those who ignore them.
A prediction - when the numbers come out this week, the COVID deniers will use the argument that since the case numbers are below the peak of the 29th (Caused by Christmas Effect), there is no problem.
I hope we are that lucky. My prediction is that today is the busiest testing day ever as people contemplate having to go back to work or school, and that cases for today will be over 100k once the numbers have trundled in over the rest of the week. (The 29th is 80k.)
I see it didn;t take the SAGE committee long to find a virus variant that is resistant to vaccines. The dreaded South African variant.
Its clear now, quicker than I expected, that vaccines will not set us free.
Indeed, restrictions are not lifting as vaccines roll out, they are intensifying. The spread of the virus cannot be because of anything the government is doing and so it must be our fault.
Maoists blamed 'speculators' when markets crashed or ceased to exist in response to their policies and rounded them up in camps or executed them.
What we have here from Hancock and SAGE is tghe beginning of something in the same vein.
As I posted on here before, we are never getting out of this. We are never getting out until the economy breaks, or we decide we have had enough. Even then we face a gargantuan struggle to get any of our liberties back
Are you and Leon related? You seem to have an over-reacting panic gene. You don't know it is resistant yet and even if it is you don't know that it isn't easy to adapt the vaccine and even if it isn't we are no worse off than we were. It is not great, but get a grip.
If bird flu ever mutates so as to be easily transmissible without loss of mortality then panic.
I’m not panicking. I’m reacting with sensible alarm to what is, potentially, the greatest threat to humanity since World War 2
I think it is worth remembering that this virus only kills about 1% of those infected. This will not cause a collapse in society, not least because 80%+ of that 1% will be past working age.
The problem is the sick and the pressure on the NHS. I think that within 10 days we are going to see significant parts of the country where it is simply not possible to get into a hospital and people will die of heart attacks and strokes that could have been saved. I really don't see how we can stop this now even if we shut the schools and enter total lockdown. Its already baked in.
This risks spreading the consequences of the virus somewhat but again I do not think enough people of working age will be directly affected to impact on society. So I don't agree its the greatest threat to humanity since WW2. But its bad and getting worse, no question.
According to Worldometer, the global case fatality ratio is, at the moment, 3%
Of course in reality it must be less than that, because of undetected infections etc, but we cannot know the true figure. And, as you rightly say, the real nightmare is crashed health systems, in which case the CFR will shoot up as many bad cases go untreated, and other ailments are ignored, can’t reach hospital, and so forth
I noted the other day that our fatality rate was 3.00% of our "official" infection rate. The assumption that 3x as many have had the virus than the official figures suggest always looked somewhat anecdotal to me and must be becoming more questionable as our testing has ramped up to quite incredible levels. I personally think it likely that the fatality rate is more than 1% but hey, I am only a lawyer.
If just 1% of Britons died of an out-of-control virus, that would be 670,000 dead people, in a year: it would be worse than any single year in World War 1, by a distance. That would be plague pits, overwhelmed crematoria, the worst scenes from Italy in the spring, but magnified greatly.
I don’t think it would cause ‘societal collapse’ (what even is that?), but, as with World War 1, I reckon it would traumatise us as a nation, and change us in ways we cannot predict.
Let us pray this remains dark speculation on a nerdy politics forum.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
Rightly, IMO, they fundamentally dislike taking away liberties.
I think that is a fair point, but we can all see the numbers (and of course they are ones in the rear view mirror). It is clear with these new variants, we can't contain it without much stricter rules.
How strict, tho? What if Tier 5 (spring lockdown, closed schools) doesn’t work? I guess they could literally order everyone indoors. 24 hour curfew. Tier 89. But even then you’d have essential workers going out... catching it...
Hopefully the vaccines work. I believe they will. But if they don’t we might have to be very brutal in our choices to save our health system.
Then you are really in the John Wyndham cosy dystopia genre.
And part of the tragedy would be that we have a government that isn't just partisan, but factional, in a way that hasn't really happened in living memory.
Boris wanted to be a god, so the gods punished him by giving him what he wanted.
There is no evidence as yet that the vaccine will not work on the SA variant, though even if does not work we may end up with herd immunity for that variant anyway if it spreads much faster
I see it didn;t take the SAGE committee long to find a virus variant that is resistant to vaccines. The dreaded South African variant.
Its clear now, quicker than I expected, that vaccines will not set us free.
Indeed, restrictions are not lifting as vaccines roll out, they are intensifying. The spread of the virus cannot be because of anything the government is doing and so it must be our fault.
Maoists blamed 'speculators' when markets crashed or ceased to exist in response to their policies and rounded them up in camps or executed them.
What we have here from Hancock and SAGE is tghe beginning of something in the same vein.
As I posted on here before, we are never getting out of this. We are never getting out until the economy breaks, or we decide we have had enough. Even then we face a gargantuan struggle to get any of our liberties back
Are you and Leon related? You seem to have an over-reacting panic gene. You don't know it is resistant yet and even if it is you don't know that it isn't easy to adapt the vaccine and even if it isn't we are no worse off than we were. It is not great, but get a grip.
If bird flu ever mutates so as to be easily transmissible without loss of mortality then panic.
I’m not panicking. I’m reacting with sensible alarm to what is, potentially, the greatest threat to humanity since World War 2
I think it is worth remembering that this virus only kills about 1% of those infected. This will not cause a collapse in society, not least because 80%+ of that 1% will be past working age.
The problem is the sick and the pressure on the NHS. I think that within 10 days we are going to see significant parts of the country where it is simply not possible to get into a hospital and people will die of heart attacks and strokes that could have been saved. I really don't see how we can stop this now even if we shut the schools and enter total lockdown. Its already baked in.
This risks spreading the consequences of the virus somewhat but again I do not think enough people of working age will be directly affected to impact on society. So I don't agree its the greatest threat to humanity since WW2. But its bad and getting worse, no question.
According to Worldometer, the global case fatality ratio is, at the moment, 3%
Of course in reality it must be less than that, because of undetected infections etc, but we cannot know the true figure. And, as you rightly say, the real nightmare is crashed health systems, in which case the CFR will shoot up as many bad cases go untreated, and other ailments are ignored, can’t reach hospital, and so forth
I noted the other day that our fatality rate was 3.00% of our "official" infection rate. The assumption that 3x as many have had the virus than the official figures suggest always looked somewhat anecdotal to me and must be becoming more questionable as our testing has ramped up to quite incredible levels. I personally think it likely that the fatality rate is more than 1% but hey, I am only a lawyer.
If just 1% of Britons died of an out-of-control virus, that would be 670,000 dead people, in a year: it would be worse than any single year in World War 1, by a distance. That would be plague pits, overwhelmed crematoria, the worst scenes from Italy in the spring, but magnified greatly.
I don’t think it would cause ‘societal collapse’ (what even is that?), but, as with World War 1, I reckon it would traumatise us as a nation, and change us in ways we cannot predict.
Let us pray this remains dark speculation on a nerdy politics forum.
But about 228K died of the 1919 flu in the UK. Not far off 1%.
You can back Trump to cease to be POTUS in 2021 - an outcome with approx the same probability as the sun rising tomorrow - at 1.03. So a risk free 3% return on your money in 16 days. What an APR. Plus there's the added benefit of knowing that juicy return is being funded by delusional softhead Trumpsters.
I've gone all in on this one. Even if Biden dies, the bet still wins.
You really have to if you're someone who doesn't mind lumping. It's as close to zero risk as a bet can ever be. And it will pay promptly. There's no ambiguity.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
Rightly, IMO, they fundamentally dislike taking away liberties.
I think that is a fair point, but we can all see the numbers (and of course they are ones in the rear view mirror). It is clear with these new variants, we can't contain it without much stricter rules.
How strict, tho? What if Tier 5 (spring lockdown, closed schools) doesn’t work? I guess they could literally order everyone indoors. 24 hour curfew. Tier 89. But even then you’d have essential workers going out... catching it...
Hopefully the vaccines work. I believe they will. But if they don’t we might have to be very brutal in our choices to save our health system.
I think unfortunately we have to go super strict e.g. Only go out for food / medicines and needs to be for next 2 months.
Yes - that's what seems to genuinely have turned the tide in China, to the point that normality has now returned and the occasional local cases can be contained by tracking and tracing. As Leon says, essential workers will still need to go out, but in that scenario they should get vaccine priority - if Sainsbury delivery staff are being asked to go out when everyone else is locked up, then it makes sense to vaccinate them before someone sitting onm their own in their homes.
I see that the Chicken Licken tendency are out of their cage again.
In University news, UCL has announced that students should not return to campus (unless already there, or doing special subjects) until at least the end of Feb. I hear that Cambridge may be doing something similar. Let's hope that some other Universities grow a backbone and do the same. Mine still silent.
--AS
That is the advice being given to Cambridge students (on a college-by-college basis, AIUI). They are not being *precluded* from coming in, but are being advised not to come.
How would they preclude someone from moving back to the accommodation they have paid for and are contracted for and demand they should stay as a guest with whoever they spent Christmas with?
Don't get me wrong, they should absolutely should be advised to stay in home towns if they sensibly can, but it cant be mandatory.
I've quite tempted to take the Ossoff + Loeffler bet - the video from Warnock's ex-wife wasn't great for him so I don't think he will win, and Perdue has been dogged (and is in isolation).
On the other hand, worth reading this if you are betting on Georgia.
You can back Trump to cease to be POTUS in 2021 - an outcome with approx the same probability as the sun rising tomorrow - at 1.03. So a risk free 3% return on your money in 16 days. What an APR. Plus there's the added benefit of knowing that juicy return is being funded by delusional softhead Trumpsters.
I've gone all in on this one. Even if Biden dies, the bet still wins.
You really have to if you're someone who doesn't mind lumping. It's as close to zero risk as a bet can ever be. And it will pay promptly. There's no ambiguity.
Betting against Marine Le Pen after the 'Outre Mer' results came out vs Macron, & both 2016 and 2020 popular vote for the US elections are the only other 5 figure bets I've ever placed.
That looks a very unattractive bet to me but I do hope it happens. There has to come a point when there is just revulsion of Trump and all he stands for or US democracy will be permanently weakened.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
Rightly, IMO, they fundamentally dislike taking away liberties.
I think that is a fair point, but we can all see the numbers (and of course they are ones in the rear view mirror). It is clear with these new variants, we can't contain it without much stricter rules.
How strict, tho? What if Tier 5 (spring lockdown, closed schools) doesn’t work? I guess they could literally order everyone indoors. 24 hour curfew. Tier 89. But even then you’d have essential workers going out... catching it...
Hopefully the vaccines work. I believe they will. But if they don’t we might have to be very brutal in our choices to save our health system.
I think unfortunately we have to go super strict e.g. Only go out for food / medicines and needs to be for next 2 months.
Yes - that's what seems to genuinely have turned the tide in China, to the point that normality has now returned and the occasional local cases can be contained by tracking and tracing. As Leon says, essential workers will still need to go out, but in that scenario they should get vaccine priority - if Sainsbury delivery staff are being asked to go out when everyone else is locked up, then it makes sense to vaccinate them before someone sitting onm their own in their homes.
I think delivery staff are actually like lorry drivers and at the safer end of the spectrum. Those in the stores however really are at high risk as they have to interact face to face with 100s of customers every day.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
They have told people the vaccines will set them free as a way to prevent mass disorder.
Ramping up restrictions after that is not a good look.
I think if people know it is for a set period of time, then that is fine. The real issue will be if the vaccines don't work against new variants.
FPT: Jonathan, the Conservatives don't sneer at aspiration. They don't look down their nose at patriotism. The honest working man or woman, trying to make a living for their family? Come aboard.
The Conservative Party doesn't get very bothered by race, creed or religion these days. Look at the make-up of the Cabinet. They have had two women Prime Ministers (ahem, Labour....) Although Conservatives are probably more likely to see Muslim suicide bombers and tar the whole of Islam with the same "they are out to get us" brush. But then, they just share that prejudice with the wider electorate. It's just what happens when some of your adherents blow us up on buses and trains and at pop concerts.
‘These days’ is good. You lot still have prolapses if any criticism is made of the bloke that thought ‘keep England white’ was a goer as an election slogan.
Says the man in a 96% white Scotland.
Is that because Scots are racists - or because no other ethnicities want to go there?
If you’re going pop out a floppy zinger, you might as well get the stats right. How’s the multiculturalism going in your part of the world, moi luvver?
Now - back to Scotlaand: racist, or just a wasteland no-one else wants to live in?
Golly, perhaps living in multicultural Glasgow has blinded me to the rest of Scotland. About the same as Devon and Cornwall: West Country, racist, or just a wasteland no-one else wants to live in?
I wonder why the old 'the fewer immigrants, the more Brexity xenophobia' applies to your gaffe and not mine?
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
Rightly, IMO, they fundamentally dislike taking away liberties.
Even if this means allowing hundreds of people to die.
You might as well say that it is wrong for the government to say that we drive on the left hand side of the road.
"Where's the scientific evidence that driving on the left is better than driving on the right?"
"Most of those dying in head-on collisions would have died within a year anyway!"
"Think of the damage to the economy caused by driving on only one side of the road. Have you thought about that, hmm?"
"Road traffic accidents are always worse in the winter, this is just a normal year!"
"These are false positive accidents!"
"We just have to wait for herd dexterity, when all the left-side driving people have been taken out of the road network by accidents. It's the way nature selects a side!"
"It's outrageous for the old to insist on restrictions that keep them alive, when the young have reflexes fast enough to survive under the new liberty-loving freedom road policy."
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
They have told people the vaccines will set them free as a way to prevent mass disorder.
Ramping up restrictions after that is not a good look.
I think if people know it is for a set period of time, then that is fine. The real issue will be if the vaccines don't work against new variants.
I expect the immunity picture won't be a clear yay or nay. I think the vaccines will work vs the SA strain for people with good immune systems + a vaccine - so that'll be those of us ineligible for ages
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
They have told people the vaccines will set them free as a way to prevent mass disorder.
Ramping up restrictions after that is not a good look.
I think if people know it is for a set period of time, then that is fine. The real issue will be if the vaccines don't work against new variants.
I expect the immunity picture won't be a clear yay or nay. I think the vaccines will work vs the SA strain for people with good immune systems + a vaccine - so that'll be those of us ineligible for ages
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
I see that the Chicken Licken tendency are out of their cage again.
In University news, UCL has announced that students should not return to campus (unless already there, or doing special subjects) until at least the end of Feb. I hear that Cambridge may be doing something similar. Let's hope that some other Universities grow a backbone and do the same. Mine still silent.
--AS
25th January here, and we're now planning for similar timeline for my department.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
Rightly, IMO, they fundamentally dislike taking away liberties.
I think that is a fair point, but we can all see the numbers (and of course they are ones in the rear view mirror). It is clear with these new variants, we can't contain it without much stricter rules.
How strict, tho? What if Tier 5 (spring lockdown, closed schools) doesn’t work? I guess they could literally order everyone indoors. 24 hour curfew. Tier 89. But even then you’d have essential workers going out... catching it...
Hopefully the vaccines work. I believe they will. But if they don’t we might have to be very brutal in our choices to save our health system.
Then you are really in the John Wyndham cosy dystopia genre.
And part of the tragedy would be that we have a government that isn't just partisan, but factional, in a way that hasn't really happened in living memory.
Boris wanted to be a god, so the gods punished him by giving him what he wanted.
"John Wyndham cosy dystopia" is a surpassingly brilliant bit of literary criticismm.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
I see that the Chicken Licken tendency are out of their cage again.
In University news, UCL has announced that students should not return to campus (unless already there, or doing special subjects) until at least the end of Feb. I hear that Cambridge may be doing something similar. Let's hope that some other Universities grow a backbone and do the same. Mine still silent.
--AS
That is the advice being given to Cambridge students (on a college-by-college basis, AIUI). They are not being *precluded* from coming in, but are being advised not to come.
How would they preclude someone from moving back to the accommodation they have paid for and are contracted for and demand they should stay as a guest with whoever they spent Christmas with?
Don't get me wrong, they should absolutely should be advised to stay in home towns if they sensibly can, but it cant be mandatory.
No - indeed. They could, I'm sure, say that the property is not available for health and safety reasons, but they are being more sensible and practical than that
I see that the Chicken Licken tendency are out of their cage again.
In University news, UCL has announced that students should not return to campus (unless already there, or doing special subjects) until at least the end of Feb. I hear that Cambridge may be doing something similar. Let's hope that some other Universities grow a backbone and do the same. Mine still silent.
--AS
25th January here, and we're now planning for similar timeline for my department.
Yes, here too, but I think that's a date that comes from the government. It's clearly too soon, though. Would be clearer for all involved to move the semester/term online and advise against students returning until after Easter.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
Rightly, IMO, they fundamentally dislike taking away liberties.
I think that is a fair point, but we can all see the numbers (and of course they are ones in the rear view mirror). It is clear with these new variants, we can't contain it without much stricter rules.
How strict, tho? What if Tier 5 (spring lockdown, closed schools) doesn’t work? I guess they could literally order everyone indoors. 24 hour curfew. Tier 89. But even then you’d have essential workers going out... catching it...
Hopefully the vaccines work. I believe they will. But if they don’t we might have to be very brutal in our choices to save our health system.
I think unfortunately we have to go super strict e.g. Only go out for food / medicines and needs to be for next 2 months.
Today would be a good day. Last week would have been better.
I'm expecting to be told this week about a longer closure (students aren't in this week), I'd estimate 31st Jan as a minimum.
Testing systems (if we are to operate them) need to be in place and we need to buy time to allow vaccination to ramp up for the clinically vulnerable/elderly.
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
He's an idiot.
Apparently the reason he refused to sack Cummings was because the papers printed that he should.
So now if the papers say he should lockdown, he might just not do it out of sheer idiocy.
He is a danger. Tories who backed him should be crawling with shame.
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
Scotland's schools are already shut to 18th January. I am expecting that to be extended to at least the end of the month today. TINA.
I am more willing than most to cut the government a fair bit of slack in dealing with an unprecedented pandemic which continues to generate surprises but the continued failure to read the most basic charts and think through the obvious implications is a frustration and a disappointment. I understand the reluctance and I share it but this has been blindingly obvious since the new variant became dominant.
I see that the Chicken Licken tendency are out of their cage again.
In University news, UCL has announced that students should not return to campus (unless already there, or doing special subjects) until at least the end of Feb. I hear that Cambridge may be doing something similar. Let's hope that some other Universities grow a backbone and do the same. Mine still silent.
--AS
As a lecturer, we were told around November that we will be blended learning (essential lab/field only, with justifications) until the end of the academic year. It gives both students and staff certainty. Essential classroom work requires all windows and doors to be open. Not something I favour in a Scottish winter. Besides which, students are favouring at home class work (but desperately want field work, although they understand why not) as they find they have more time and no lack of computers or study space.
For the US, there's a few tiers of GOP at work here
Tier 1 - GOP that are actively rejecting Trump's nonsense - Chip Roy objecting to certification of the WI, NV etc reults in the house is probably the most prominent of these. Pat Toomey also, Sasse now in the club, Romney was always here. Tier 2 - Those that are staying errm.. quiet Tier 3 - Those that are showing ankle to the Trumpers but won't actually do anything outrageous. Mike Pence is here, McConnell too. They'd probably be amongst the silent ones in Tier 2 but by virtue of having a higher profile role have had to say .. something. Tier 4 - The MAGAs who are going to try and chuck out slates, but are acting within the US law/constitution (Even if you think the law/constitution is mince) Tier 5 - Acting outside the law - not sure if it's blackmail, election intereference or sedition but his call to Raffensberger could certainly be tried in a court if he's not been pardoned by then - perhaps by Pence ... or himself ! In this category, Trump himself. Pretty much alone actually.
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
But not in Wales yet
My sons school is back today though it is a private school (he is IT director not a pupil for clarification)
and my grandchildren's primary gores back on Wednesday
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
He's an idiot.
Apparently the reason he refused to sack Cummings was because the papers printed that he should.
So now if the papers say he should lockdown, he might just not do it out of sheer idiocy.
He is a danger. Tories who backed him should be crawling with shame.
Cameron refused to sack Coulson for ages, because he felt the papers were on a witch hunt. Its not uncommon for leaders to be unwilling to give the newspapers their scalp.
As I say, specifically on locking people, this is one area that goes against his beliefs. Other stuff, laziness, not looking at the detail, above his comprehension, etc, absolutely.
I see it didn;t take the SAGE committee long to find a virus variant that is resistant to vaccines. The dreaded South African variant.
Its clear now, quicker than I expected, that vaccines will not set us free.
Indeed, restrictions are not lifting as vaccines roll out, they are intensifying. The spread of the virus cannot be because of anything the government is doing and so it must be our fault.
Maoists blamed 'speculators' when markets crashed or ceased to exist in response to their policies and rounded them up in camps or executed them.
What we have here from Hancock and SAGE is tghe beginning of something in the same vein.
As I posted on here before, we are never getting out of this. We are never getting out until the economy breaks, or we decide we have had enough. Even then we face a gargantuan struggle to get any of our liberties back
Are you and Leon related? You seem to have an over-reacting panic gene. You don't know it is resistant yet and even if it is you don't know that it isn't easy to adapt the vaccine and even if it isn't we are no worse off than we were. It is not great, but get a grip.
If bird flu ever mutates so as to be easily transmissible without loss of mortality then panic.
I’m not panicking. I’m reacting with sensible alarm to what is, potentially, the greatest threat to humanity since World War 2
I think it is worth remembering that this virus only kills about 1% of those infected. This will not cause a collapse in society, not least because 80%+ of that 1% will be past working age.
The problem is the sick and the pressure on the NHS. I think that within 10 days we are going to see significant parts of the country where it is simply not possible to get into a hospital and people will die of heart attacks and strokes that could have been saved. I really don't see how we can stop this now even if we shut the schools and enter total lockdown. Its already baked in.
This risks spreading the consequences of the virus somewhat but again I do not think enough people of working age will be directly affected to impact on society. So I don't agree its the greatest threat to humanity since WW2. But its bad and getting worse, no question.
According to Worldometer, the global case fatality ratio is, at the moment, 3%
Of course in reality it must be less than that, because of undetected infections etc, but we cannot know the true figure. And, as you rightly say, the real nightmare is crashed health systems, in which case the CFR will shoot up as many bad cases go untreated, and other ailments are ignored, can’t reach hospital, and so forth
I noted the other day that our fatality rate was 3.00% of our "official" infection rate. The assumption that 3x as many have had the virus than the official figures suggest always looked somewhat anecdotal to me and must be becoming more questionable as our testing has ramped up to quite incredible levels. I personally think it likely that the fatality rate is more than 1% but hey, I am only a lawyer.
If just 1% of Britons died of an out-of-control virus, that would be 670,000 dead people, in a year: it would be worse than any single year in World War 1, by a distance. That would be plague pits, overwhelmed crematoria, the worst scenes from Italy in the spring, but magnified greatly.
I don’t think it would cause ‘societal collapse’ (what even is that?), but, as with World War 1, I reckon it would traumatise us as a nation, and change us in ways we cannot predict.
Let us pray this remains dark speculation on a nerdy politics forum.
But about 228K died of the 1919 flu in the UK. Not far off 1%.
UK population in 1921 was 43 million.
0.51% is (even with allowances for a bit of growth after 1918) quite a long way off 1% ...
Today would be a good day. Last week would have been better.
Hugely better. Having them mixing just for a single day must be doing most of the damage that keeping them open for a week would do. (No I'm not trying to say that they might as well stay open now.)
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
Scotland's schools are already shut to 18th January. I am expecting that to be extended to at least the end of the month today. TINA.
I am more willing than most to cut the government a fair bit of slack in dealing with an unprecedented pandemic which continues to generate surprises but the continued failure to read the most basic charts and think through the obvious implications is a frustration and a disappointment. I understand the reluctance and I share it but this has been blindingly obvious since the new variant became dominant.
'Government'? (not trying to score a point, just checking whether you mean Mr J's lot).
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
Scotland's schools are already shut to 18th January. I am expecting that to be extended to at least the end of the month today. TINA.
I am more willing than most to cut the government a fair bit of slack in dealing with an unprecedented pandemic which continues to generate surprises but the continued failure to read the most basic charts and think through the obvious implications is a frustration and a disappointment. I understand the reluctance and I share it but this has been blindingly obvious since the new variant became dominant.
Are you saying *whispers* that Nicola might have been more on top of this than BJ?
Of course even if every GOP Representative and Senator objected to the EC certified results this week Biden would still be elected President as it needs both the House and Senate to uphold the objections for them to be valid and the Democratic controlled House will still vote to uphold the EC votes even if the Senate did not.
In any case the likes of GOP Senators Romney, Collins and McConnell etc will also not support any objections either
Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.
But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.
The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
Scotland's schools are already shut to 18th January. I am expecting that to be extended to at least the end of the month today. TINA.
I am more willing than most to cut the government a fair bit of slack in dealing with an unprecedented pandemic which continues to generate surprises but the continued failure to read the most basic charts and think through the obvious implications is a frustration and a disappointment. I understand the reluctance and I share it but this has been blindingly obvious since the new variant became dominant.
London schools are also shut well into January anyway.
If, as has been predicted below, we get a daily case rate near 100,000 that will be psychologically horrifying for many, and the govt will have no choice but to lock us all up, as so many will be eager to hide.
This also raises a statistical question. Is the UK now seeing more cases, daily, per capita, than any other country during the pandemic? I know America had some horrific figures but we may now be worse
I see it didn;t take the SAGE committee long to find a virus variant that is resistant to vaccines. The dreaded South African variant.
Its clear now, quicker than I expected, that vaccines will not set us free.
Indeed, restrictions are not lifting as vaccines roll out, they are intensifying. The spread of the virus cannot be because of anything the government is doing and so it must be our fault.
Maoists blamed 'speculators' when markets crashed or ceased to exist in response to their policies and rounded them up in camps or executed them.
What we have here from Hancock and SAGE is tghe beginning of something in the same vein.
As I posted on here before, we are never getting out of this. We are never getting out until the economy breaks, or we decide we have had enough. Even then we face a gargantuan struggle to get any of our liberties back
Are you and Leon related? You seem to have an over-reacting panic gene. You don't know it is resistant yet and even if it is you don't know that it isn't easy to adapt the vaccine and even if it isn't we are no worse off than we were. It is not great, but get a grip.
If bird flu ever mutates so as to be easily transmissible without loss of mortality then panic.
I’m not panicking. I’m reacting with sensible alarm to what is, potentially, the greatest threat to humanity since World War 2
I think it is worth remembering that this virus only kills about 1% of those infected. This will not cause a collapse in society, not least because 80%+ of that 1% will be past working age.
The problem is the sick and the pressure on the NHS. I think that within 10 days we are going to see significant parts of the country where it is simply not possible to get into a hospital and people will die of heart attacks and strokes that could have been saved. I really don't see how we can stop this now even if we shut the schools and enter total lockdown. Its already baked in.
This risks spreading the consequences of the virus somewhat but again I do not think enough people of working age will be directly affected to impact on society. So I don't agree its the greatest threat to humanity since WW2. But its bad and getting worse, no question.
According to Worldometer, the global case fatality ratio is, at the moment, 3%
Of course in reality it must be less than that, because of undetected infections etc, but we cannot know the true figure. And, as you rightly say, the real nightmare is crashed health systems, in which case the CFR will shoot up as many bad cases go untreated, and other ailments are ignored, can’t reach hospital, and so forth
I noted the other day that our fatality rate was 3.00% of our "official" infection rate. The assumption that 3x as many have had the virus than the official figures suggest always looked somewhat anecdotal to me and must be becoming more questionable as our testing has ramped up to quite incredible levels. I personally think it likely that the fatality rate is more than 1% but hey, I am only a lawyer.
If just 1% of Britons died of an out-of-control virus, that would be 670,000 dead people, in a year: it would be worse than any single year in World War 1, by a distance. That would be plague pits, overwhelmed crematoria, the worst scenes from Italy in the spring, but magnified greatly.
I don’t think it would cause ‘societal collapse’ (what even is that?), but, as with World War 1, I reckon it would traumatise us as a nation, and change us in ways we cannot predict.
Let us pray this remains dark speculation on a nerdy politics forum.
But about 228K died of the 1919 flu in the UK. Not far off 1%.
UK population in 1921 was 43 million.
0.51% is (even with allowances for a bit of growth after 1918) quite a long way off 1% ...
Though I take the casualties of WW1 comparison,
Ah thanks - I'd got it in my head it was abouty 30m. Quite right to point that out.
As I say, specifically on locking people, this is one area that goes against his beliefs. Other stuff, laziness, not looking at the detail, above his comprehension, etc, absolutely.
He believes it would be better for more people to get infected?
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
Scotland's schools are already shut to 18th January. I am expecting that to be extended to at least the end of the month today. TINA.
I am more willing than most to cut the government a fair bit of slack in dealing with an unprecedented pandemic which continues to generate surprises but the continued failure to read the most basic charts and think through the obvious implications is a frustration and a disappointment. I understand the reluctance and I share it but this has been blindingly obvious since the new variant became dominant.
'Government'? (not trying to score a point, just checking whether you mean Mr J's lot).
Actually I mean all governments including Holyrood. This is a difficult time to be in charge and its not getting any easier.
Boris will be please a majority of Conservative Leavers and a plurality of Tory Remainers and even Labour Leavers think the outcome he has reached with the EU is a good one.
Only Labour Remainers and LD voters and those in seats the Tories do not already hold think the deal he reached with the EU is a bad one
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
Scotland's schools are already shut to 18th January. I am expecting that to be extended to at least the end of the month today. TINA.
I am more willing than most to cut the government a fair bit of slack in dealing with an unprecedented pandemic which continues to generate surprises but the continued failure to read the most basic charts and think through the obvious implications is a frustration and a disappointment. I understand the reluctance and I share it but this has been blindingly obvious since the new variant became dominant.
London schools are also shut well into January anyway.
If, as has been predicted below, we get a daily case rate near 100,000 that will be psychologically horrifying for many, and the govt will have no choice but to lock us all up, as so many will be eager to hide.
This also raises a statistical question. Is the UK now seeing more cases, daily, per capita, than any other country during the pandemic? I know America had some horrific figures but we may now be worse
My prediction was that today will eventually top 100,000 by specimen date. Still hoping that that the daily reports won't quite get there and that this will be the peak.
I see it didn;t take the SAGE committee long to find a virus variant that is resistant to vaccines. The dreaded South African variant.
Its clear now, quicker than I expected, that vaccines will not set us free.
Indeed, restrictions are not lifting as vaccines roll out, they are intensifying. The spread of the virus cannot be because of anything the government is doing and so it must be our fault.
Maoists blamed 'speculators' when markets crashed or ceased to exist in response to their policies and rounded them up in camps or executed them.
What we have here from Hancock and SAGE is tghe beginning of something in the same vein.
As I posted on here before, we are never getting out of this. We are never getting out until the economy breaks, or we decide we have had enough. Even then we face a gargantuan struggle to get any of our liberties back
Are you and Leon related? You seem to have an over-reacting panic gene. You don't know it is resistant yet and even if it is you don't know that it isn't easy to adapt the vaccine and even if it isn't we are no worse off than we were. It is not great, but get a grip.
If bird flu ever mutates so as to be easily transmissible without loss of mortality then panic.
I’m not panicking. I’m reacting with sensible alarm to what is, potentially, the greatest threat to humanity since World War 2
I think it is worth remembering that this virus only kills about 1% of those infected. This will not cause a collapse in society, not least because 80%+ of that 1% will be past working age.
The problem is the sick and the pressure on the NHS. I think that within 10 days we are going to see significant parts of the country where it is simply not possible to get into a hospital and people will die of heart attacks and strokes that could have been saved. I really don't see how we can stop this now even if we shut the schools and enter total lockdown. Its already baked in.
This risks spreading the consequences of the virus somewhat but again I do not think enough people of working age will be directly affected to impact on society. So I don't agree its the greatest threat to humanity since WW2. But its bad and getting worse, no question.
According to Worldometer, the global case fatality ratio is, at the moment, 3%
Of course in reality it must be less than that, because of undetected infections etc, but we cannot know the true figure. And, as you rightly say, the real nightmare is crashed health systems, in which case the CFR will shoot up as many bad cases go untreated, and other ailments are ignored, can’t reach hospital, and so forth
I noted the other day that our fatality rate was 3.00% of our "official" infection rate. The assumption that 3x as many have had the virus than the official figures suggest always looked somewhat anecdotal to me and must be becoming more questionable as our testing has ramped up to quite incredible levels. I personally think it likely that the fatality rate is more than 1% but hey, I am only a lawyer.
If just 1% of Britons died of an out-of-control virus, that would be 670,000 dead people, in a year: it would be worse than any single year in World War 1, by a distance. That would be plague pits, overwhelmed crematoria, the worst scenes from Italy in the spring, but magnified greatly.
I don’t think it would cause ‘societal collapse’ (what even is that?), but, as with World War 1, I reckon it would traumatise us as a nation, and change us in ways we cannot predict.
Let us pray this remains dark speculation on a nerdy politics forum.
But about 228K died of the 1919 flu in the UK. Not far off 1%.
UK population in 1921 was 43 million.
0.51% is (even with allowances for a bit of growth after 1918) quite a long way off 1% ...
Though I take the casualties of WW1 comparison,
Ah thanks - I'd got it in my head it was abouty 30m. Quite right to point that out.
Cheers.
I find I forget how slowly it has grown over a century, and how it has relatively sped up very recently after a total standstill in 1970-80.
As I say, specifically on locking people, this is one area that goes against his beliefs. Other stuff, laziness, not looking at the detail, above his comprehension, etc, absolutely.
He believes it would be better for more people to get infected?
That's worse...
Clearly not, he keeps trying to believe that a combination of some restrictions and personal responsibility will be enough. He is wrong, but he isn't the only leader to believe this. The likes of Germany believed they could have lockdown lite this winter, rather than take people all personal freedoms away again.
Of course even if every GOP Representative and Senator objected to the EC certified results this week Biden would still be elected President as it needs both the House and Senate to uphold the objections for them to be valid and the Democratic controlled House will still vote to uphold the EC votes even if the Senate did not.
In any case the likes of GOP Senators Romney, Collins and McConnell etc will also not support any objections either
Yeh, but what if one party controlled both houses? Who knew an election result could be overturned in this way (other than constitutional historians)?
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
But not in Wales yet
My sons school is back today though it is a private school (he is IT director not a pupil for clarification)
and my grandchildren's primary gores back on Wednesday
Wales will follow. We’re all heading into Tier 462b, where we are stapled to our sofas and our eyelids are sealed shut with superglue. Special self-driving food vans will park outside our homes, extend tubes through the open windows, and pipe hot broth - humorously nicknamed ‘Boris broth’ - into our gaping mouths.
Boris will be please a majority of Conservative Leavers and a plurality of Tory Remainers and even Labour Leavers think the outcome he has reached with the EU is a good one.
Only Labour Remainers and LD voters and those in seats the Tories do not already hold think the deal he reached with the EU is a bad one
His problem - if Brexit recedes into the background - is that Red Wall voters think he lies to them, won't invest in the NHS, won't level up and will make the rich better off at the expense of the poor.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.
I am not saying it does.I am just saying on this specific issue, I think it one where a strong personal belief causes him to be too slow, rather than so much of Boris flip flopping is about playing to whoever is in the gallery and trying to bullshit because he didn't do the required reading.
He is the wrong person to be a leader for this pandemic.
As I say, specifically on locking people, this is one area that goes against his beliefs. Other stuff, laziness, not looking at the detail, above his comprehension, etc, absolutely.
He believes it would be better for more people to get infected?
That's worse...
Clearly not, he keeps trying to believe that a combination of some restrictions and personal responsibility will be enough. He is wrong, but he isn't the only leader to believe this. The likes of Germany believed they could have lockdown lite this winter, rather than take people all personal freedoms away again.
Or look at France. They’ve been vaccinating for a week and so far they’ve injected... 600 people. In exactly the same period Germany has immunised 180,000.
Many European countries are flailing around, in interestingly different ways
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.
Is there anywhere that one can bet on how long lockdowns, masks, etc will last?
I'm getting a bit fed up of the distorted 'science' and brainwashing and at a guess only 4-5 people on PB are also sceptical. But if I can make some ££ from it, it would cheer me up no end.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.
I am no doubt seething with anti BJ prejudice, but I think his deep unwillingness to front up bad news is more of a factor than any problems with his beliefs (whatever they might be). Very unChurchillian.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
I'm reliably informed that the NHS will have over 1.5m doses of the two vaccines available this week. It's the first big test for the programme to see if we get over 1m people jabbed.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
The government hasn't got a clue about any of those. It's definitely flying blind on vaccination numbers right now.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
To answer your questions: 1. No 2. No 3. No 4. No 5. No
This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.
Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.
But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.
The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.
But Brexit...
This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
To answer your questions: 1. No 2. No 3. No 4. No 5. No
This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.
A slightly less partisan answer is as many as possible but the control will be the supply of vaccine, not its distribution. It is, however, the only important question at the moment and more clarity about where we are with vaccine deliveries would be helpful.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
The government hasn't got a clue about any of those. It's definitely flying blind on vaccination numbers right now.
Indeed. Hence the attempts to distract from those questions, and people are buying it.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
To answer your questions: 1. No 2. No 3. No 4. No 5. No
This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.
To be fair, they probably don't know exactly how many doses they'll have by 1st March from either Pfizer or AZN. It was supposed to be 30 million already.
As long as they keep up with supply, that's all they can do.
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
But not in Wales yet
My sons school is back today though it is a private school (he is IT director not a pupil for clarification)
and my grandchildren's primary gores back on Wednesday
Wales will follow. We’re all heading into Tier 462b, where we are stapled to our sofas and our eyelids are sealed shut with superglue. Special self-driving food vans will park outside our homes, extend tubes through the open windows, and pipe hot broth - humorously nicknamed ‘Boris broth’ - into our gaping mouths.
Isn't 'Would you like some BJ broth piped into your gaping mouth?' one of his chat up lines?
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
The government hasn't got a clue about any of those. It's definitely flying blind on vaccination numbers right now.
Indeed. Hence the attempts to distract from those questions, and people are buying it.
To be fair, AZN promised 30 million by September, then 4 million by end of 2020, and only delivered 500k. The government are in the hands of AZN to actually start producing 2-3 million doses a week.
I am relying on a Hermes delivery for some supplies for a project....I am going to make no promises to Mrs U about when the work will be complete, given how crap they are at actually turning up with the correct items.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
No one is ‘luxuriating in misery’. No one on this site WANTS bad things to happen. But something truly, historically awful IS happening, and the situation is likely to get considerably worse before - God willing - it improves.
On a clear-eyed site literally devoted to forecasting, ignoring this, to keep you cheerful, is beyond futile.
Comments
At some point, you reach the stage where "the rules" make little difference because the transmission is being driven by those who ignore them.
I don’t think it would cause ‘societal collapse’ (what even is that?), but, as with World War 1, I reckon it would traumatise us as a nation, and change us in ways we cannot predict.
Let us pray this remains dark speculation on a nerdy politics forum.
And part of the tragedy would be that we have a government that isn't just partisan, but factional, in a way that hasn't really happened in living memory.
Boris wanted to be a god, so the gods punished him by giving him what he wanted.
Don't get me wrong, they should absolutely should be advised to stay in home towns if they sensibly can, but it cant be mandatory.
https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1346037907107229697?s=20
On the other hand, worth reading this if you are betting on Georgia.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/rural-georgians-believe-trump-was-robbed-but-it-wont-stop-them-from-turning-out-for-loeffler-and-perdue/
About the same as Devon and Cornwall: West Country, racist, or just a wasteland no-one else wants to live in?
I wonder why the old 'the fewer immigrants, the more Brexity xenophobia' applies to your gaffe and not mine?
"Most of those dying in head-on collisions would have died within a year anyway!"
"Think of the damage to the economy caused by driving on only one side of the road. Have you thought about that, hmm?"
"Road traffic accidents are always worse in the winter, this is just a normal year!"
"These are false positive accidents!"
"We just have to wait for herd dexterity, when all the left-side driving people have been taken out of the road network by accidents. It's the way nature selects a side!"
"It's outrageous for the old to insist on restrictions that keep them alive, when the young have reflexes fast enough to survive under the new liberty-loving freedom road policy."
--AS
Can someone tell me where the 'donate' button has gone, please
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
--AS
Some of us have businesses to run.
Testing systems (if we are to operate them) need to be in place and we need to buy time to allow vaccination to ramp up for the clinically vulnerable/elderly.
Apparently the reason he refused to sack Cummings was because the papers printed that he should.
So now if the papers say he should lockdown, he might just not do it out of sheer idiocy.
He is a danger. Tories who backed him should be crawling with shame.
I am more willing than most to cut the government a fair bit of slack in dealing with an unprecedented pandemic which continues to generate surprises but the continued failure to read the most basic charts and think through the obvious implications is a frustration and a disappointment. I understand the reluctance and I share it but this has been blindingly obvious since the new variant became dominant.
Tier 1 - GOP that are actively rejecting Trump's nonsense - Chip Roy objecting to certification of the WI, NV etc reults in the house is probably the most prominent of these. Pat Toomey also, Sasse now in the club, Romney was always here.
Tier 2 - Those that are staying errm.. quiet
Tier 3 - Those that are showing ankle to the Trumpers but won't actually do anything outrageous. Mike Pence is here, McConnell too. They'd probably be amongst the silent ones in Tier 2 but by virtue of having a higher profile role have had to say .. something.
Tier 4 - The MAGAs who are going to try and chuck out slates, but are acting within the US law/constitution (Even if you think the law/constitution is mince)
Tier 5 - Acting outside the law - not sure if it's blackmail, election intereference or sedition but his call to Raffensberger could certainly be tried in a court if he's not been pardoned by then - perhaps by Pence ... or himself ! In this category, Trump himself. Pretty much alone actually.
My sons school is back today though it is a private school (he is IT director not a pupil for clarification)
and my grandchildren's primary gores back on Wednesday
As I say, specifically on locking people, this is one area that goes against his beliefs. Other stuff, laziness, not looking at the detail, above his comprehension, etc, absolutely.
0.51% is (even with allowances for a bit of growth after 1918) quite a long way off 1% ...
Though I take the casualties of WW1 comparison,
It's pretty frustrating - we can't go in and we get different stories when we ring
They think its a stroke but he gets aggressive (dementia) when they try to do a scan - so they cant say for sure
It appears he may also have a blood clot in leg which he now on blood thinning meds for.
He also has a drug resistant infection which complicates things
TBH as soon as they said they were taking him into hospital exposure to COVID was my main worry
In any case the likes of GOP Senators Romney, Collins and McConnell etc will also not support any objections either
But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.
The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.
But Brexit...
If, as has been predicted below, we get a daily case rate near 100,000 that will be psychologically horrifying for many, and the govt will have no choice but to lock us all up, as so many will be eager to hide.
This also raises a statistical question. Is the UK now seeing more cases, daily, per capita, than any other country during the pandemic? I know America had some horrific figures but we may now be worse
https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1346048415537491969?s=20
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1346049858243883015?s=20
https://twitter.com/JudiciaryUK/status/1346049798294695938?s=20
That's worse...
Only Labour Remainers and LD voters and those in seats the Tories do not already hold think the deal he reached with the EU is a bad one
Sri Lanka making a better fist of it today.
Meanwhile I think India are great value to win the third Test against Australia - 4.1 on Betfair, but check to see when they intend to pay out.
I find I forget how slowly it has grown over a century, and how it has relatively sped up very recently after a total standstill in 1970-80.
He is the wrong person to be a leader for this pandemic.
Many European countries are flailing around, in interestingly different ways
I'm getting a bit fed up of the distorted 'science' and brainwashing and at a guess only 4-5 people on PB are also sceptical. But if I can make some ££ from it, it would cheer me up no end.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week?
2 How many people it will vaccinate next week?
3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month?
4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day?
5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
‘Boris to announce tighter restrictions’ - Sky
Now that's what you call tempting fate.
1. No
2. No
3. No
4. No
5. No
This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.
As long as they keep up with supply, that's all they can do.
I am relying on a Hermes delivery for some supplies for a project....I am going to make no promises to Mrs U about when the work will be complete, given how crap they are at actually turning up with the correct items.
On a clear-eyed site literally devoted to forecasting, ignoring this, to keep you cheerful, is beyond futile.