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David Herdson’s 2021 predictions – politicalbetting.com
David Herdson’s 2021 predictions – politicalbetting.com
So that was Brexit. The defining political issue in the UK of the last half-decade is now done. Not that the story entirely ends there. Brexit was just one more chapter in the long story of Britain’s relationship with the continent, and as that geographic fact remains, so must the further development of that story. But not with the same intensity for the time being. 2021 will be the first year in several where domestic politics will not be dominated and defined by Europe.
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Oh and first.
Interesting set of predictions.
Even though we may disagree on the question of which policies are best for the country, I am sure everybody expects any government to rule with competence and honesty. Once the dust has started to settle over Brexit and Covid, the public will start to realise just how useless the Conservative Party has been in government. And this will have an impact on Conservative candidates at all levels, because they did nothing to change the way things were going.
All they have to say for themselves is "But at least Boris is fun!"
Mr. P, that *should* be the case. The political polarisation that's occurred recently coupled, perhaps, with the lingering distaste of Corbynism may mean it doesn't.
Conservative MPs should toss the imbecile overboard at the first opportunity. If they faff about too long the cure will be too late to be electorally effective.
Sadly, I agree with the header's comment on Russia and China playing silly buggers.
We need some kind of system
Although maybe the opportunity hasn't 't yet arisen, but, for example, I can't recall who leads for Labour on Education. Maybe, of course, I haven't been paying attention.
However. People are gullible and I'm not yet convinced that Starmer's Labour have what it takes to regain power. When the next election comes around people will be focused on whether they are likely to be better off and whether Johnson saw off the virus. I suspect the answer to both will be, 'yes'.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/multi-market?marketIds=1.160683973
Back prices:
2021 3.25
2022 6.4
2023 6.4
2024+ 2.28
I’m inclined towards the middle options, and think he probably goes late 2022, following disasterous 2022 local elections and a dozen points behind in the polls.
That said, his political opponents tend to forget the 80-seat majority, so the only people whose opinions really count for anything are Tory MPs.
I think the tipping point will be when a clear successor is identified - and as ever in this market, laying the favourite is the way to go - currently Rishi Sunak at 3.6 to lay. His life is going to get a whole load more difficult as time progresses. The outsider with an obvious actual chance to back is probably Truss at 16.5.
Next Con Leader market: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/multi-market?marketIds=1.160663234
The UK did brilliantly to pre-order from several sources but we're now hitting some obstacles on the rollout. I guess that's to be expected but this needs a mobilisation the like of which has never been seen. The whole of the EU and UK (argh first time I've had to write that) should be vaccinating en masse 24/7. Otherwise for the next few months the virus is going to be in the lead.
There's "talent" and there's Gavin Williamson, a man who seems incapable of anticipating entirely predictable outcomes that are even more than a few hours into the future.
One of my worrying thoughts about Q1, is that there’s going to be some naked and ugly international politics played around the vaccine production and distribution in developed countries. I’m thinking governments sequestering factory output for domestic use, export bans etc.
On the other hand, it looks like the Oxford vaccine is about to be approved in India - and they have a mega-factory ready to go, that can make over 100m doses a month.
We may have started a couple of weeks earlier, but was the EU block sat on their hands those two weeks, or putting in place logistics that will take them passed us in the jaboff? If that were to happen, head start, twice as expensive and finishing second, the ask would be how many have the U.K. government killed with the slower roll out. 😦. That really would be a difficult place to be particularly after “greatest country” boasting.
Dear Hanky Hancock - have you thought about automating the process using robots?
On Dr F's point, AIUI the 'Family Doctor' system that we have in the UK is, I understand, unusual. While it has it's disadvantages...... no-one can be expert in everything ....... it does mean that there's are local reference points where everyones records are held.
The next month or two is going to be the ramp-up phase which, as with testing and PPE back in March and April, will get there in the end but be a bumpy ride along the way.
Some countries (waves at the EU, among others), appear to have prioritised price over delivery date. That’s going to look, to their peoples, like the wrong strategy as time passes.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
Not yet at the same quality of reporting though, many countries are not providing updates frequently if at all.
Interesting article here from the owners of BioNTech (though talking their own book!).
One thing that may happen is that supplies may be commandeered, rather than be delivered according to the first ordered, first served system. I would only expect that if production problems persist.
What i guess will really be the game changer is when we have several vaccines in approval. Pfizer are getting heat in large part because they are responsible for nearly the entireity of Western supply.
When I go to conferences, apart from the Scandinavians none of my international peers has anything like the quality of data. Apart from occasional epidemiological surveys they don't generally even know how many they have, nor what their current issues are. It is a different style of practice. While care can be excellent, it can also be very patchy, and diabetes care amongst the poor in America is truly appalling.
GP registers are a major strength of the UK public health system. Fragmented privatised care has some utility, over centralised systems, but when it comes to systematic planning of a vaccine programme, it is no contest.
This may happen, and if it does, will bring on serious pain (both individual and governmental) given how reliant we are on debt, both public and private; more so than in 2008.
But - and partly for the above reason - I don't think this would happen. More likely, we will face an experiment with negative real interest rates (for which the BoE is already preparing), with inflation rising through the single digits while interest rates remain on the floor.
If the red tape around getting retired doctors in to give jabs is true, that's an epic level of bullshit.
https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1345143277541077001
Unlike his lockdown scepticism, I think Farage is likely onto a winner making opposition to China his next shtick.
Still nearly three months until F1 returns. Annoyingly, the 2021 calendar will include the rubbish circuits mostly absent from the 2020 season.
Many doctors who retired a decade ago aren’t woke enough to know the ‘right’ answers to some of the questions in 2021, and are being rejected.
50,000 retired or lapsed medical professionals have applied, and the latest figure I saw was 8,000 have been accepted.
If all that’s true, the next question is what to do about it? The HR department will claim that everything is required by section 3 subsection 29 of the Bollocks Act 2009.
It could end up being easier to train sqaddies on administering injections, and have one nurse support half a dozen of them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/01/boris-johnson-victim-emotions
Incidentally we still don’t know what the hell we’re supposed to do. In fact, the situation is so confused my school has extended the Christmas holidays while we try and work out what’s happening.
"If there's a tier 73 lockdown, but really bad weather, is there travel chaos? My god, what headline are we meant to use now?!"
Not much changes round here, does it?
100% postal...?
That's why we have so many activist lawyers
Whereas Mr Macron already has when he ordered PPE confiscated which was due by contract to a whole series of countries. UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal and Switzerland to name just seven.
Bike parts are very expensive at retail now compared to what the OEMs pay. The rear derailleur I replaced following my recent accident was 400 quid!
Plethora of competing standards and technologies means that you need a critical mass of knowledge and tools. Off the top of my head I can think of the following Bottom Bracket standards: British and Italian threaded,BB90,BB95,PF86,PF92,BB30, OSBB (road and MTB), BB30A, PF30, BBRight, BB386 EVO, SRAM DUB and "Spanish" press fit for BMXs. There's probably more.
Bike frames are now vertically stratified in a way that they never used to be. A low end frame may not be upgradable to thru-axles from drop outs, hydraulic discs from calipers or electronic shifting from the previously prevalent Edwardian technology of Bowden cables.
Oh, and it's probably not coincidental that the EU are currently doing major deals on trade with China.
Apart from that Christmas dip at the end, those curves more or less have the same shape as in the cases chart. That's not suprising as people with symptoms and then contacts of people with positive tests get tested.
However, the test numbers are dominated by a large constant component of 2000..2500 tests/week/100,000. I guess that's a combination of routine testing of hospital and care home staff and patients plus people getting tested for Covid-like symptoms from other ailments. England's base level of tests appears to be about 500 higher than the other nations.
The reported case chart again for reference:
It's worked for years
Posting here rather than wowing them in your fluent Castilian on Il Juego Politico really is the equivalent of English language quiz night at the Irish Bar, don't you find?
Lo siento Generalissimo - olvido que esta el jefe aqui.
Do you honestly think that would be comparable in terms of viral transmission?
I bought a decent bike (Boardman Team level) and did various mods over a couple of years.
All other things being equal you would expect that to make easterly winds a lot more likely.
One thing to note is that this event is relatively early in the winter, so coincides with the annual minimum in temperature which is normally at the end of January.
It is the Tory government that introduced all this bollocks. Nothing to do with hospital HR departments etc, other than they need to follow the law.
On the latter, as I posted yesterday, while it is too early to say, the European CDC published a paper headed by the following disclaimer:
This report does not consider the epidemiology of COVID-19 in relation to new variants of concern for SARS-CoV-2, such as one recently observed in the United Kingdom (VOC 202012/01), for which robust evidence on the potential impact in school settings is not yet available.
• The United Kingdom has released a statement that, on preliminary analysis, this variant appears to be more transmissible. There are media reports that the new variant may be more able to infect children, but this is not yet confirmed, and detailed data are awaited.
• Should these initial reports about increased transmissibility of VOC 20212/01 in children prove to be accurate, this could have implications for the effectiveness of intervention measures in school settings, and of potential school closures, in countries where there are high rates of circulation of this variant.
The other issue is of course that (1) classrooms are in no way ‘safe’ despite the lies of those drunken crooks at the DfE, and (2) government isolation rules are not generally enforced in schools - only people within 2 metres, not whole classes, are isolated, nor are teachers.
As for your claim about teachers, the fact that at times we had 10% of staff off with Covid (not just isolating) does not exactly suggest staff are safe from infection.
Sounds like, right now, these myriad regulations are causing more harm then good, and should be at least suspended by Parliament if not repealed altogether.
Not at educating, obviously, but at deflecting or absorbing blame.
https://twitter.com/bobscartoons/status/1306647449075961860
It's not remotely possible that Gav is stupid enough to believe we would not need to close schools, and still function as an adult in the Real World.
We are left therefore with the hypothesis that BoZo made the decision and told him to go out and sell it.
Which he did. And now we blame him. Job done from BoZo's perspective. Give that man a medal...
Of course, the rates at which governments borrow may very well go up.
And you are accusing me of not providing evidence and pushing an agenda?
Edit - and I’m assuming the DfE are drunk because the alternative - that they Deliberately sent three sets of contradictory instructions within 24 hours out of malice - is too awful to contemplate.
There was one model I read about last week which suggests that vaccinating 2 million a week in the UK would save something like 100,000 lives by this summer. There really should be absolutely nothing allowed to impeded the vaccination programme. Other countries will need similar proportioned programmes, and God help the people who don't live in countries with vaccine orders and decent public health services.
The last time they did this 2-3 years ago, the actual data showed that more men had been propositioned than women. They only fed the media the half about women.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gz85usf0nn/YG - Archive - 190717 - Shelter.pdf
They had just recruited the new boss, Polly Neate, from Women's Aid.
As for the DfE. They have behaved throughout this crisis with criminal irresponsibility. They have blood on their hands. They will be held to account.
But its ok. People will put up with - and defend - any deadly shambles because Brexit.