Punters losing confidence that there’ll be a deal before the end of the year – politicalbetting.com
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSwMarqueeMark said:
Twitter is an unparalleled medium for showing the world you know fuck all......CarlottaVance said:
I see Paul Joseph Watson is unfamiliar with the concept of "Code Share".....unless he thinks Koran Air flies from Sao Paulo to Heathrow.....Andy_JS said:3 -
Arguing with you is a waste of time. Anyone who might be interested can easily re-read that last paragraph in your previous post and decide for themselves whether the statistics you yourself quote actually justify your conclusion.HYUFD said:
In 2019 38% of LD voters earned over £70,000 a year compared to 23% of Tory voters who earned over £70,000 a year and 24% of Labour voters who earned over £70,000 a year.IanB2 said:
More statistical illiteracy from you in that last paragraph.HYUFD said:
According to the IFS in 2019 'their manifesto confirms that they are now the only major party committed to reduce the national debt as a fraction of national income, a goal now abandoned by both Labour and the Conservatives' so not sure if that holds true. Ed Davey was of course a Cabinet Minister in Cameron's government unlike Boris.Omnium said:
OGH is perhaps the greatest LD force left. Good sense being the other one.WhisperingOracle said:
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.Omnium said:
Hey CHB.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1340694495172714496
Another boring poll.
Both parties consistently in the 30s now
Not so boring for the LDs.
A new suit, a tie, and Smithson brushes up well.
The LDs main problem is that they are so far left economically.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/article/liberal-democrat-manifesto-an-initial-reaction-from-ifs
The LDs have also now overtaken the Tories as the main party of the rich in terms of the percentage of their support. According to Yougov in 2019 for example the LDs won 20% of those earning over £70,000 a year compared to 12% of UK voters overall, the Tories by contrast won 40% of the highest earners compared to 44% of voters overall and Labour won 31% of those on the highest incomes compared to 32% of voters overall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#cite_note-348
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
In 2015 by contrast 32% of Tory voters earned over £70,000 a year and only 29% of LD voters earned over £70,000 a year so there was no statistical illiteracy about it, the LDs have overtaken the Tories as the party of the rich in terms of their core support.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
Overall testing rate per nation:malcolmg said:
How can you do 4.4 tests, surely it has to be a round number. Like being a bit pregnant.Alistair said:We seem to be doing fuck all Pillar 2 tests in Scotland.
On the 10th Of December (day randomly selected by me) of UK wide pillar 2 tests only 4.4 were done in Scotland.
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It's interesting back then to see Cameron (and Blair was like this at the start) using the slightly forced commanding hand gestures which they'd both been clearly trained to use for impact.Malmesbury said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSwMarqueeMark said:
Twitter is an unparalleled medium for showing the world you know fuck all......CarlottaVance said:
I see Paul Joseph Watson is unfamiliar with the concept of "Code Share".....unless he thinks Koran Air flies from Sao Paulo to Heathrow.....Andy_JS said:
They got far more natural as time went on, and they became more seasoned politicians.0 -
Har Har , Jingo Jim has spoken, read the numbers after taking your foot out of your mouth.Casino_Royale said:
The idea that Scotland has been a leading light on this is a fantasy beloved of nationalists.OnboardG1 said:
As has happened all the way through the pandemic, look at Scotland and expect that to be done slightly later.Casino_Royale said:I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.0 -
I hope to God you're right. Personally I'm afraid that our stubborn, clueless, useless Government will insist on keeping the schools open until the kids have spread this new thing thoroughly and evenly everywhere. That would be entirely consistent with virtually everything that they have done up to this point.Casino_Royale said:I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.2 -
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It would suit me far better to keep primaries and nurseries open to be honest, and I'd only close those as a last resort.Black_Rook said:
I hope to God you're right. Personally I'm afraid that our stubborn, clueless, useless Government will insist on keeping the schools open until the kids have spread this new thing thoroughly and evenly everywhere. That would be entirely consistent with virtually everything that they have done up to this point.Casino_Royale said:I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.
I'm just hypothesising what may be necessary to squish out that extra 0.4 of R - if it still largely passes the under 12s by, then it's not necessary. But teenagers and young people are far more blasé.0 -
Well, of course! That was when British consumers benefited from improved access to superior European goods and produce.Richard_Tyndall said:
Breaking the Unions and reforming our industrial and manufacturing bases were more important. Also worth noting that, bar a couple of months in the early 80s, the last time we had a balance of trade surplus with the EEC/EU was the year before we joined.Foxy said:
Though clearly membership did not hold back that economic sovereignty. EU membership and reducing barriers to the Single Market were a central plank in Thatchers economic policy.Richard_Tyndall said:
Given how long we were in the EEC before Thatcher came to power with no signs of any improvement in our economy what is clear is that it was the massive Thatcher reforms of our sclerotic economy that made the difference. It is those changes which have benefitted Governments since then, not our membership of the EEC/EUFoxy said:
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.Richard_Tyndall said:
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.Foxy said:
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?Foxy said:
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,Philip_Thompson said:
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.Foxy said:
QTWAIY then surely...Philip_Thompson said:
QTWAIN.Foxy said:
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔Philip_Thompson said:
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.Peter_the_Punter said:
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.Philip_Thompson said:
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.Peter_the_Punter said:
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
So QTWAIY...😀
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.0 -
I'm not sure we've covered this but both sides are still talking and this tweet from Barnier, 3 hours ago, seems relatively respectful:
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1340676670446039049?s=200 -
It's a total meltdown nowCasino_Royale said:I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.
What is happening in London and SE now will be UK wide in a few weeks
11,000 new cases in London today. This if replicated at UK level = 70,000 a day plus.
We need to call the national lockdown at 23 March level from Christmas Eve to 28 Feb including all secondaries and universities.
Primary schools an stay open. Normal 'bubbles' to be retained.
And a travel ban in/out UK except in the most extenuating circumstances.
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The deaths chart actually looks pretty flat or actually declining for the last month or so ; let's hope it stays that way.Malmesbury said:UK deaths
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I’m not sure how you could actually prove that outside of a lab settingRH1992 said:
I think the answer at the moment is we don't know. There are hints and hopes that the vaccines prevent transmission but it's not proven.stodge said:Sorry - another question posed by Mrs Stodge for the epidemiologists, virologists or right know-alls on here - if you have the vaccine, you achieve 100% immunity a week after the injection, I'm told.
Does that mean you can contract the virus and still transmit it to others even though you won't suffer any symptoms? In other words, does the vaccine make you asymptomatic or does it prevent you contracting the virus and being a carrier?0 -
Today's reaction to mutant covid, it is clear this is super serious.....we are all going to be in some sort of lockdown now until end of summer ( IF vaccines work against this).
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340717231785828358?s=190 -
The second tweet is particularly important as it acknowledges UK concerns - it suggests to me that a fudge in play could be to agree that both sides "have the right" (unfettered) on waters and a future unilateral increase or decrease in fish quotas by either the UK or EU could result in a tariff response provided that it was arbitrated via fair governance - this may clear the way to a compromise now, and an open door to do something different later:Casino_Royale said:I'm not sure we've covered this but both sides are still talking and this tweet from Barnier, 3 hours ago, seems relatively respectful:
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1340676670446039049?s=20
"Both Flag of European Union&Flag of United Kingdom must have the right to set their own laws & control their own waters. And we should both be able to act when our interests are at stake. (2/2)"0 -
Deaths lag cases. Cases lag infections......WhisperingOracle said:
The deaths chart actually looks pretty flat or declining over the last few weeks ; let's hope it stays that way.Malmesbury said:UK deaths
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I can see you've put a lot of thought into these posts.Scott_xP said:3 -
It won't be reviewed until after Christmas Day, and rightly so.londonpubman said:
It's a total meltdown nowCasino_Royale said:I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.
What is happening in London and SE now will be UK wide in a few weeks
11,000 new cases in London today. This if replicated at UK level = 70,000 a day plus.
We need to call the national lockdown at 23 March level from Christmas Eve to 28 Feb including all secondaries and universities.
Primary schools an stay open. Normal 'bubbles' to be retained.
And a travel ban in/out UK except in the most extenuating circumstances.
Right now London and the SE are effectively under lockdown. The rest of the country will follow in a week.
It's a good compromise as it gives 70% of the country some sort of Christmas first.0 -
Have you seen that he's gone completely off the deep end about Trump i.e. there was possible fraud contributing to the Dems win that needs to be investigated? I fear that he's heading towards a certain fruitcakey end of the marketplace of ideas, not that there aren't buyers of course.ping said:
Disaster.Theuniondivvie said:Almost double the new cases and more than double the deaths since last Sunday
https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1340689930264203266?s=20
I just listened to Maajid Nawaz’s LBC show
He was comparing the t4 lockdown to being in solitary confinement in an Egyptian prison. Like, I get that that is his claim to fame, and I’ll still give him the time of day when he discusses islamism etc, but seriously?!0 -
But it seems that would be a unusually long lag this time, longer than what I've understood is the average case/infection/fatatlity time.Malmesbury said:
Deaths lag cases. Cases lag infections......WhisperingOracle said:
The deaths chart actually looks pretty flat or declining over the last few weeks ; let's hope it stays that way.Malmesbury said:UK deaths
It looks like something like a month an half flat, despite the rising hospitalisations, and the new strain apparently already making up the majority of cases in London, for instance, a month ago. This seems odd to me, as an amateur epidemiologist- unless maybe the new strain is actually more contagious but much *less* dangerous. Always good to hope, anyway.0 -
Is that fancy speak for capitulation by English government.Casino_Royale said:
The second tweet is particularly important as it acknowledges UK concerns - it suggests to me that a fudge in play could be to agree that both sides "have the right" (unfettered) on waters and a future unilateral increase or decrease in fish quotas by either the UK or EU could result in a tariff response provided that it was arbitrated via fair governance - this may clear the way to a compromise now, and an open door to do something different later:Casino_Royale said:I'm not sure we've covered this but both sides are still talking and this tweet from Barnier, 3 hours ago, seems relatively respectful:
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1340676670446039049?s=20
"Both Flag of European Union&Flag of United Kingdom must have the right to set their own laws & control their own waters. And we should both be able to act when our interests are at stake. (2/2)"1 -
Pillar 2 is the self refferal UK managed testing.OnboardG1 said:
If pillar 2 is the regular testing of frontline workers that was moved into NHS Scotland around the time that the testing service was having issues back in September. Any residual numbers are likely people who live in Cumbria and Northumberland but work in the Borders (or vice versa).Alistair said:We seem to be doing fuck all Pillar 2 tests in Scotland.
On the 10th Of December (day randomly selected by me) of UK wide pillar 2 tests only 4.4 were done in Scotland.0 -
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Hospital admissions have started to go up again, so deaths will follow shortly. It's inevitable.WhisperingOracle said:
The deaths chart actually looks pretty flat or actually declining for the last month or so ; let's hope it stays that way.Malmesbury said:UK deaths
This has been going on for so long and so many theories have been promulgated about this bloody Plague that I may be misremembering, but there may be good evidence to suggest that young children are inefficient transmitters. If that's the case then I'm prepared to concede that it *might* be a good idea to let the primaries stay open. But the secondaries have to go, and letting the universities take students back would be total madness.Casino_Royale said:
It would suit me far better to keep primaries and nurseries open to be honest, and I'd only close those as a last resort.Black_Rook said:
I hope to God you're right. Personally I'm afraid that our stubborn, clueless, useless Government will insist on keeping the schools open until the kids have spread this new thing thoroughly and evenly everywhere. That would be entirely consistent with virtually everything that they have done up to this point.Casino_Royale said:I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.
I'm just hypothesising what may be necessary to squish out that extra 0.4 of R - if it still largely passes the under 12s by, then it's not necessary. But teenagers and young people are far more blasé.2 -
Is he suggesting the PM is lying or something?Scott_xP said:0 -
Given all these countries are banning travel from the UK
Given the vaccine in produced in Belgium
Do we have a problem ?0 -
No, because trade has never stopped.ManchesterKurt said:Given all these countries are banning travel from the UK
Given the vaccine in produced in Belgium
Do we have a problem ?0 -
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Effective lockdown except that places of worship, which were among the main early drivers of the pandemic, are still open, even in tier 4.Casino_Royale said:
It won't be reviewed until after Christmas Day, and rightly so.londonpubman said:
It's a total meltdown nowCasino_Royale said:I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.
What is happening in London and SE now will be UK wide in a few weeks
11,000 new cases in London today. This if replicated at UK level = 70,000 a day plus.
We need to call the national lockdown at 23 March level from Christmas Eve to 28 Feb including all secondaries and universities.
Primary schools an stay open. Normal 'bubbles' to be retained.
And a travel ban in/out UK except in the most extenuating circumstances.
Right now London and the SE are effectively under lockdown. The rest of the country will follow in a week.
It's a good compromise as it gives 70% of the country some sort of Christmas first.0 -
It's also an artefact of Malmesbury's graphs - the later records are incomplete. For a better guide see, the "Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported" graph at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths . Although you might naively think that this data is less useful since it gives deaths by reporting date rather than date of occurrence, it actually gives a pretty good estimate of the final values (compare with the curve above). This indicates that the slight fall in deaths over the past couple of weeks has now reversed, and deaths are already rising again.WhisperingOracle said:
But it seems that would be a unusually long lag this time, longer than what I've understood is the average case/infection/fatatlity time.Malmesbury said:
Deaths lag cases. Cases lag infections......WhisperingOracle said:
The deaths chart actually looks pretty flat or declining over the last few weeks ; let's hope it stays that way.Malmesbury said:UK deaths
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CNN’s aerial report from the motorways near Dover suggest that it has. For five or more hours, at least.RobD said:
No, because trade has never stopped.ManchesterKurt said:Given all these countries are banning travel from the UK
Given the vaccine in produced in Belgium
Do we have a problem ?0 -
"No deal is not an option" = "so sign up to whatever the EU tell us we can have".Scott_xP said:
Er, no.3 -
My assumption is that the mutation has increased affinity without impact aviditystjohn said:
Tim T. I thought you said the other day that the mutations in the virus we are currently concerned about don't affect the spike protein. But it seems clear that the mutations do affect the spike protein. Maybe only slightly but apparently significantly in terms of speed of spread of the virus. So I probably misread or misunderstood what you said?TimT said:
Actually, the strong correlation in respiratory diseases is an inverse one between transmissibility and morbidity/mortality and there is a well-understood mechanism for this. Sneezing assists in transmissibility of respiratory diseases, and sneezes are induced more in infections of the upper respiratory tract which tend to have lower morbidity/mortality levels than diseases of the lower respiratory tract (i.e. those that bind in the nose and throat, rather than in the bronchi and lungs).YBarddCwsc said:
The mutations are random, but the tendency is for viruses to become less deadly (for which there is plenty of empirical evidence).kjh said:
Agree. The virus has no ability to mutate as more or less deadly. It is entirely random. It is simply a case of how easy it is to survive and multiply. A virus that kills instantly upon infection will not be successful as it won't get a chance to spread, but if a virus was easily transmittable and took time to make the host ill so that it could spread easily and yet be 100% fatal it would be a viable mutation.IshmaelZ said:
Not true. Viruses mutate randomly, and there is no reason to think less lethal mutations are more frequent.YBarddCwsc said:
But, it is a difficult argument to make.ManchesterKurt said:
We have had fewer restrictions, government policy, than many other countries and have amongst the highest death rates as a consequence does not equate to government policy leading to higher infection rates?Richard_Tyndall said:
Since the premise of your comment is completely wrong then the subsequent question is pointless.ManchesterKurt said:Since the government was seemingly willing to allow C-19 to remain in the English population at a much higher level than many other parts of the world, so long as the NHS was not overwhelmed, was it not therefore more likely that more mutations would likely be occurring here in England that other places which tried to keep the infection rates far lower?
In general, mutations are good, as the virus mutates to a less deadly version (it is not in the virus' interests to kill the host).
There are have already been 20,000 mutations recorded.
So, you could argue that allowing plenty of opportunity to mutate is a good thing.
It is always easier to break something to fix it -- and that goes for viruses too. The more it is allowed to mutate, probably the better.
It's about which mutations get selected for. Killing vs not killing the host is not selective when you have a virtually infinite supply of infectable new hosts. So your claim applies to snow leopard viruses but not really to human ones.
Your argument assumes no correlation between transmissibility and onset of the disease.
Can you provide an example of a virus that has mutated to become more infectious AND with a longer onset time?
That is part of what makes COVID so unusual and deadly - SARS-CoV-2 binds with just about every tissue in the human body (as every tissue has the ACE-2 receptor to which the spike protein binds, and every tissue has one of the protease surface enzymes that activate the spike protein (i.e. cleave one of the sub-units so that it opens up that part of the protein thereby allowing the virus to enter the cell and infect it)) thus it is binding in both upper and lower respiratory tracts causing both high transmissibility and high morbidity/mortality.
AND about half of all transmission happens before onset of symptoms.
Can you clarify what you said please and also what are your thoughts on the likelihood of current or future mutations significantly reducing the efficacy of current vaccines? Thanks.0 -
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There is massive asset price inflationDavidL said:
In fact, as our actuaries were lamenting in the context of their pension calculations, they have continued to fall. We are in a very strange world of QE, huge deficits, the lowest gilt yields in history and almost no inflation. It is positively weird and the hot topic of economics right now. None of our conventional theories can explain this.MaxPB said:
The drop in credit rating was political. The actual yields have barely moved.Peter_the_Punter said:
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?0 -
Don't suggest that there's a Koran Air, PJW's head will explode!CarlottaVance said:
I see Paul Joseph Watson is unfamiliar with the concept of "Code Share".....unless he thinks Koran Air flies from Sao Paulo to Heathrow.....Andy_JS said:3 -
I remember paying a tad more than 7 dollars a night when I stayed in Vegas.Philip_Thompson said:
It is a fair point but Vegas hotels don't make their money on the hotel rooms charges do they?rcs1000 said:For all those who say "if governments didn't impose stupid restrictions, the economy would be doing ok," can I present to you the current state of Vegas hotel rooms:
https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman/status/1340512162666582018
Better to get someone in at virtually free who then goes to the casino than to have an empty room.0 -
Percent. Silly me.malcolmg said:
How can you do 4.4 tests, surely it has to be a round number. Like being a bit pregnant.Alistair said:We seem to be doing fuck all Pillar 2 tests in Scotland.
On the 10th Of December (day randomly selected by me) of UK wide pillar 2 tests only 4.4 were done in Scotland.0 -
2 weeks early.Scott_xP said:0 -
Picks up baseball bat....FeersumEnjineeya said:
It's also an artefact of Malmesbury's graphs - the later records are incomplete. For a better guide see, the "Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported" graph at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths . Although you might naively think that this data is less useful since it gives deaths by reporting date rather than date of occurrence, it actually gives a pretty good estimate of the final values (compare with the curve above). This indicates that the slight fall in deaths over the past couple of weeks has now reversed, and deaths are already rising again.WhisperingOracle said:
But it seems that would be a unusually long lag this time, longer than what I've understood is the average case/infection/fatatlity time.Malmesbury said:
Deaths lag cases. Cases lag infections......WhisperingOracle said:
The deaths chart actually looks pretty flat or declining over the last few weeks ; let's hope it stays that way.Malmesbury said:UK deaths
You starting?!?
Joking aside - the data is pretty much in within 5 days. So far we are not seeing a reversion to a slow decline in daily deaths. With the increases in hospitalisations, this will reverse.
if you look at
you can see that up until the end of November, admissions were actually falling (roughly). So we are about due to see the effects of the rise feeding in to the death data.0 -
Indeed. Which just encourages everybody who does still have money to invest to do so in progressively riskier asset classes - because why keep money in the bank when it earns no interest and, to the extent that we do still have inflation, its effects erode the value of savings? I myself have long since stopped bothering saving cash. I invest in a stock and share ISA instead. People with much more money than I gamble it outright on the stock market. And house prices continue to go up at speed even as unemployment rates do the same.Charles said:
There is massive asset price inflationDavidL said:
In fact, as our actuaries were lamenting in the context of their pension calculations, they have continued to fall. We are in a very strange world of QE, huge deficits, the lowest gilt yields in history and almost no inflation. It is positively weird and the hot topic of economics right now. None of our conventional theories can explain this.MaxPB said:
The drop in credit rating was political. The actual yields have barely moved.Peter_the_Punter said:
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Now, what could possibly go wrong?0 -
This threas has been shut down like travel to the continent.0
-
What kind of leader would get the Telegraph's support if they gave way at the first opportunity? Wasn't that Theresa May's problem in their eyes?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I cannot see what point they are trying to make - other than some glib line that makes no sense.3 -
Also ignoring the fact that the picture has dramatically changed over the last few days. Had they known this new variant added 0.4-1.0 to R I am sure they would have done something earlier.MarqueeMark said:
What kind of leader would get the Telegraph's support if they gave way at the first opportunity? Wasn't that Theresa May's problem in their eyes?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I cannot see what point they are trying to make - other than some glib line that makes no sense.0 -
BoZo is fucking useless.MarqueeMark said:I cannot see what point they are trying to make
Even the Telegraph gets it, but apparently you don't.0 -
Hospitalisations were falling to the end of November/beginning of DecemberWhisperingOracle said:
But it seems that would be a unusually long lag this time, longer than what I've understood is the average case/infection/fatatlity time.Malmesbury said:
Deaths lag cases. Cases lag infections......WhisperingOracle said:
The deaths chart actually looks pretty flat or declining over the last few weeks ; let's hope it stays that way.Malmesbury said:UK deaths
It looks like something like a month an half flat, despite the rising hospitalisations, and the new strain apparently already making up the majority of cases in London, for instance, a month ago. This seems odd to me, as an amateur epidemiologist- unless maybe the new strain is actually more contagious but much *less* dangerous. Always good to hope, anyway.
So its about this time that we would expect the death rate to start going up.0 -
I strongly doubt that the new coronavirus strain will not respond to the current crop of vaccines. However, even the possibility that it might behave differently does illustrate a weakness in the approach of responding to specific outbreaks with specifically developed vaccines.
This leads back to what was actually a very intelligent suggestion by Donald Trump - injecting (or otherwise introducing) a form of disinfectant. We use topical preparations that have general antiviral properties - imagine the chaos if a new one of these had to be developed every time there was a new virus?0 -
Alistair said:
Percent. Silly me.malcolmg said:
How can you do 4.4 tests, surely it has to be a round number. Like being a bit pregnant.Alistair said:We seem to be doing fuck all Pillar 2 tests in Scotland.
On the 10th Of December (day randomly selected by me) of UK wide pillar 2 tests only 4.4 were done in Scotland.
0 -
Didn’t they say “at least 0.4”?solarflare said:
Begs the question then of why they used the 0.4 number in the government briefing, if that's the *lower* end of the estimate. Easier to justify immediate tier 4 if it's actually potentially an even higher increase than that.glw said:The BBC links the NERVTAG notes from 18th December.
It's in the live feed it's a very long link.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55384404
The 0.4 bump to R0 looks like an optimistic assessment.Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.
But if it is anywhere near that high then we're surely completely fucked as the virus will be rampant even with lockdown.0 -
Pillar 2 testing in the UKmalcolmg said:Alistair said:
Percent. Silly me.malcolmg said:
How can you do 4.4 tests, surely it has to be a round number. Like being a bit pregnant.Alistair said:We seem to be doing fuck all Pillar 2 tests in Scotland.
On the 10th Of December (day randomly selected by me) of UK wide pillar 2 tests only 4.4 were done in Scotland.
0 -
I was told the following story. Apparently, at one time at least, Las Vegas hotels comp'd you based on your credit rating.Which they checked by doing a swipe of your credit card at checkin.Alistair said:
I remember paying a tad more than 7 dollars a night when I stayed in Vegas.Philip_Thompson said:
It is a fair point but Vegas hotels don't make their money on the hotel rooms charges do they?rcs1000 said:For all those who say "if governments didn't impose stupid restrictions, the economy would be doing ok," can I present to you the current state of Vegas hotel rooms:
https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman/status/1340512162666582018
Better to get someone in at virtually free who then goes to the casino than to have an empty room.
So the story goes, US air tanker crews based in Nevada discovered the following..... For worldwide operations, they would often have to go to strange and interesting locations. In some of these places you had to buy fuel directly with a credit card - no trade account. So they had a special government credit card for this purpose. Since they could be buying aviation fuel by the the tanker load, it had really unlimited credit on it.
So, they would take the card to Vegas, have it swiped at the hotel. Live like kings. Pay the actual bill with their own money.....1 -
2 small thingsLuckyguy1983 said:I strongly doubt that the new coronavirus strain will not respond to the current crop of vaccines. However, even the possibility that it might behave differently does illustrate a weakness in the approach of responding to specific outbreaks with specifically developed vaccines.
This leads back to what was actually a very intelligent suggestion by Donald Trump - injecting (or otherwise introducing) a form of disinfectant. We use topical preparations that have general antiviral properties - imagine the chaos if a new one of these had to be developed every time there was a new virus?
1) Stop smoking Oxy in my trailer
2) It took 2 days to create the Moderna vaccine.0 -
No, it delivers nearly a threefold increase in fishing quotas for the UK (up from c.10% to c.30%) and, crucially, makes it clear - by treaty - that the UK can do what it likes with its fish in future but, if not negotiated direct with the EU, the EU can take proportionate measures in response if arbitration cannot resolve those disputes bilaterally. It provides a mechanism for the future discussion of quotas and stocks, and how the industry might evolve, and therefore flexibility.malcolmg said:
Is that fancy speak for capitulation by English government.Casino_Royale said:
The second tweet is particularly important as it acknowledges UK concerns - it suggests to me that a fudge in play could be to agree that both sides "have the right" (unfettered) on waters and a future unilateral increase or decrease in fish quotas by either the UK or EU could result in a tariff response provided that it was arbitrated via fair governance - this may clear the way to a compromise now, and an open door to do something different later:Casino_Royale said:I'm not sure we've covered this but both sides are still talking and this tweet from Barnier, 3 hours ago, seems relatively respectful:
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1340676670446039049?s=20
"Both Flag of European Union&Flag of United Kingdom must have the right to set their own laws & control their own waters. And we should both be able to act when our interests are at stake. (2/2)"
That's better to locking in the UK to a firm share by law now, today, which can never be revisited again except by abrogating the treaty.
Those who say "capitulation" are those who were always going to say it regardless of the deal we struck.0 -
I hope not. It was only at 0.7-0.8 nationwide by June so if it naturally bubbles around 1.1-1.3 even with a full lockdown then we've got a problem.Charles said:
Didn’t they say “at least 0.4”?solarflare said:
Begs the question then of why they used the 0.4 number in the government briefing, if that's the *lower* end of the estimate. Easier to justify immediate tier 4 if it's actually potentially an even higher increase than that.glw said:The BBC links the NERVTAG notes from 18th December.
It's in the live feed it's a very long link.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55384404
The 0.4 bump to R0 looks like an optimistic assessment.Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.
But if it is anywhere near that high then we're surely completely fucked as the virus will be rampant even with lockdown.
If that was the case you'd probably have to specify full PPE for essential workers everywhere (including supermarkets and courier drivers) or something. But you could still do it.
The virus isn't God-like and can't transmit itself through a near complete barrier. It's natural and biological not Star Trek sci fi.0 -
The trouble is that such a form of disinfectant would kill the virus in your body, and everything else.Luckyguy1983 said:I strongly doubt that the new coronavirus strain will not respond to the current crop of vaccines. However, even the possibility that it might behave differently does illustrate a weakness in the approach of responding to specific outbreaks with specifically developed vaccines.
This leads back to what was actually a very intelligent suggestion by Donald Trump - injecting (or otherwise introducing) a form of disinfectant. We use topical preparations that have general antiviral properties - imagine the chaos if a new one of these had to be developed every time there was a new virus?
We already apply all the disinfectants we can outside.
The best solution would be to develop a vaccine that attacks the virus at its most basic genetic level (taking into account it's ability to mutate and modify) such that it always works. But I'm not a biologist so I'll leave that discussion to others.
Failing that we suppress as much as we can with what we've already got.
We really really need a national effort on Oxford from 1st January with the army, navy, air force and even the salvation army too to vaccinate the f out of the UK. Millions a week.
Max is right.0 -
Australia, Canada, New Zealand, USA.eek said:
What non EU developed countries? I can think of 2 both of whom have unique circumstances (oil and money)Philip_Thompson said:
What is conclusive is that the UK grew faster than more integrated Eurozone nations but slower than non-EU developed Western nations.Foxy said:
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.Richard_Tyndall said:
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.Foxy said:
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?Foxy said:
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,Philip_Thompson said:
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.Foxy said:
QTWAIY then surely...Philip_Thompson said:
QTWAIN.Foxy said:
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔Philip_Thompson said:
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.Peter_the_Punter said:
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.Philip_Thompson said:
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.Peter_the_Punter said:
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
So QTWAIY...😀
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.
So what do you conclude from that?
Do you wish to discount them all as exceptional?0 -
The existing plan is for 3-4 million per week, once the supply/vaccination chain is fully operational and the vaccines availableCasino_Royale said:
The trouble is that such a form of disinfectant would kill the virus in your body, and everything else.Luckyguy1983 said:I strongly doubt that the new coronavirus strain will not respond to the current crop of vaccines. However, even the possibility that it might behave differently does illustrate a weakness in the approach of responding to specific outbreaks with specifically developed vaccines.
This leads back to what was actually a very intelligent suggestion by Donald Trump - injecting (or otherwise introducing) a form of disinfectant. We use topical preparations that have general antiviral properties - imagine the chaos if a new one of these had to be developed every time there was a new virus?
We already apply all the disinfectants we can outside.
The best solution would be to develop a vaccine that attacks the virus at its most basic genetic level (taking into account it's ability to mutate and modify) such that it always works. But I'm not a biologist so I'll leave that discussion to others.
Failing that we suppress as much as we can with what we've already got.
We really really need a national effort on Oxford from 1st January with the army, navy, air force and even the salvation army too to vaccinate the f out of the UK. Millions a week.
Max is right.0 -
Hahahaha. Oh sorry. Where you not joking? Poor you.Foxy said:
Well, of course! That was when British consumers benefited from improved access to superior European goods and produce.Richard_Tyndall said:
Breaking the Unions and reforming our industrial and manufacturing bases were more important. Also worth noting that, bar a couple of months in the early 80s, the last time we had a balance of trade surplus with the EEC/EU was the year before we joined.Foxy said:
Though clearly membership did not hold back that economic sovereignty. EU membership and reducing barriers to the Single Market were a central plank in Thatchers economic policy.Richard_Tyndall said:
Given how long we were in the EEC before Thatcher came to power with no signs of any improvement in our economy what is clear is that it was the massive Thatcher reforms of our sclerotic economy that made the difference. It is those changes which have benefitted Governments since then, not our membership of the EEC/EUFoxy said:
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.Richard_Tyndall said:
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.Foxy said:
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.Philip_Thompson said:
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?Foxy said:
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,Philip_Thompson said:
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.Foxy said:
QTWAIY then surely...Philip_Thompson said:
QTWAIN.Foxy said:
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔Philip_Thompson said:
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.Peter_the_Punter said:
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.Philip_Thompson said:
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.Peter_the_Punter said:
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.Philip_Thompson said:
Why?Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.another_richard said:
It will be interesting to see.Peter_the_Punter said:another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.another_richard said:
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.Peter_the_Punter said:MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.MarqueeMark said:Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
So QTWAIY...😀
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.0 -
No. As I said yesterday they have contingency plans in place involving the UK and Belgian military.ManchesterKurt said:Given all these countries are banning travel from the UK
Given the vaccine in produced in Belgium
Do we have a problem ?0 -
If the Lorries aren't allowed into France Ireland Italy etc then surely they will not be coming back loaded with freight. Shortages incoming but nothing else0
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I do hope you are trolling.Luckyguy1983 said:I strongly doubt that the new coronavirus strain will not respond to the current crop of vaccines. However, even the possibility that it might behave differently does illustrate a weakness in the approach of responding to specific outbreaks with specifically developed vaccines.
This leads back to what was actually a very intelligent suggestion by Donald Trump - injecting (or otherwise introducing) a form of disinfectant. We use topical preparations that have general antiviral properties - imagine the chaos if a new one of these had to be developed every time there was a new virus?0
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