I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
"being twattish" (aka negotiating) is fairly common in trade talks, I believe.
If the UK were negotiating in the same spirit as France, we would have yesterdy introduced the return of Calais into the mix.
With the same intention of arriving at No Deal.
The UK has negotiated in an absurd way very often ; it's held up co-operation on vital common security issues as a negotiation tactic multiple times, for instance.
That would be why we are being excluded from the security systems operated by Schengen and the EU as well as the criminal data base then despite being clear that we wanted to remain a part of both then? For goodness sake, get real.
When you leave a club and insult the members you can hardly hope to pick and choose the benefits you want them to let you keep using, whilst constantly insulting them into the bargain.
Its in their own interests Malcom. Next time people at risk are trafficked out of Belgium etc and we don't pick them up because we don't know that they are "missing" or at risk who suffers? Belgian citizens. Next time some arseholes on holiday think its ok to tear up the joint and the host country can no longer use the EAW to bring them to justice who suffers? Next time some terrorist in France who has been ranting on the internet and been identified by GCHQ as a threat kills people in Paris because the data was not on a common security platform who suffers?
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
I think things have gone so far that even if Starmerite policies (not sure we know what these are yet) were to the taste of Scottish voters, Labour are no longer seen as a a Scottish party anymore. I think independence is inevitable now. The only questions remaining are when and how rancorous.
On the EU negotiations. It looks like they are in the haggle stage. EU turning the screws on the UK to extract as much fish as possible and the UK holding out. Rightly so in the case of the UK. Fish quotas are a miniscule Brexit win to set against vast Brexit losses. But it is a win nevertheless and should be maximised,
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
Qualifications or not I bet he is correct , a big squirrel if ever I saw one.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
HYUFD is, for the nth time, deliberately forgetting that the Scottish Greens are also pro-independence, as are the Scottish Socialists, etc.
Yet he is happy to lump together Tory, Labour and LDs as an imaginary Unionist bloc, while forgetting that even now some of the voters Labour have are pro-indy.
I voted for the Scottish Greens at the last general election, despite being a supporter of the Union, so it would equally be simplistic to count my vote as one for independence.
I really don't know what to do in the Holyrood elections as I would like to vote for the Greens again. Perhaps I will decide that the Climate is more important as a determinant of my vote.
Quite so, it is not possible to divide neatly into pro and anti indy blocs. And some people feel other things are more important. Though the Holyrood system is much fairer on the greens, so feel free to vote for them!
Talking about the Scottish Greens, did you see the news about Andy Wightman? It's not clear from the piece if he is going to stand as an independent MSP though I do hope so - he has done some really good work on land ownership and its abuse (targeting Labour councils as much as big landowners). I'd be tempted to vote for him on the List if I had the chance.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
I think things have gone so far that even if Starmerite policies (not sure we know what these are yet) were to the taste of Scottish voters, Labour are no longer seen as a a Scottish party anymore. I think independence is inevitable now. The only questions remaining are when and how rancorous.
I agree and Labour should shoulder most of the blame.
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
Buried in the hoopla yesterday was Gove hyping the prospect of some “mini deals” to avoid disruption. Anyone who has money in the Smarkets market should read the small print.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
HYUFD is, for the nth time, deliberately forgetting that the Scottish Greens are also pro-independence, as are the Scottish Socialists, etc.
Yet he is happy to lump together Tory, Labour and LDs as an imaginary Unionist bloc, while forgetting that even now some of the voters Labour have are pro-indy.
I voted for the Scottish Greens at the last general election, despite being a supporter of the Union, so it would equally be simplistic to count my vote as one for independence.
I really don't know what to do in the Holyrood elections as I would like to vote for the Greens again. Perhaps I will decide that the Climate is more important as a determinant of my vote.
Quite so, it is not possible to divide neatly into pro and anti indy blocs. And some people feel other things are more important. Though the Holyrood system is much fairer on the greens, so feel free to vote for them!
Talking about the Scottish Greens, did you see the news about Andy Wightman? It's not clear from the piece if he is going to stand as an independent MSP though I do hope so - he has done some really good work on land ownership and its abuse (targeting Labour councils as much as big landowners). I'd be tempted to vote for him on the List if I had the chance.
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
Buried in the hoopla yesterday was Gove hyping the prospect of some “mini deals” to avoid disruption. Anyone who has money in the Smarkets market should read the small print.
Mini deals is fantastic. The best possible solution and the one the EU least wants to do.
It is essentially the Swiss model. The EU hare it but if we get that it is a tremendous diplomatic success.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
That was my initial reaction, but a couple of things have made me reconsider.
Firstly, the data they showed on the prevalence of this strain increasing as a proportion of the total is quite suggestive.
Secondly, introducing new restrictions with less than 12 hours warning is reminiscent of the fear and panic in the spring. I think it indicates they believe the new strain is a real threat and aren't simply using it as an excuse.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
I think things have gone so far that even if Starmerite policies (not sure we know what these are yet) were to the taste of Scottish voters, Labour are no longer seen as a a Scottish party anymore. I think independence is inevitable now. The only questions remaining are when and how rancorous.
Yep, if that is the case, the Union is done. And if it is done, we can only hope that it will be handled on both sides better than the Brexit negotiations. My sense, though, is that the SNP may be underestimating the prospect of serious discord. Just as many Brexiteers have been surprised that the EU does not perceive its interests to be the same as the UK's, so the SNP may discover that England does not see its interests as coinciding with Scotland's.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
I think things have gone so far that even if Starmerite policies (not sure we know what these are yet) were to the taste of Scottish voters, Labour are no longer seen as a a Scottish party anymore. I think independence is inevitable now. The only questions remaining are when and how rancorous.
I agree and Labour should shoulder most of the blame.
Is that a hint of pre-independence buyers remorse? You sound like a Tory. Has Philip Thompson or Bluest Blue hacked your account?
On the EU negotiations. It looks like they are in the haggle stage. EU turning the screws on the UK to extract as much fish as possible and the UK holding out. Rightly so in the case of the UK. Fish quotas are a miniscule Brexit win to set against vast Brexit losses. But it is a win nevertheless and should be maximised,
Probably a deal announcement today - distract from the covid news, and before markets open tomorrow.
If most of us could see this coming a mile away even if Boris and Nicola couldn’t presumably “most of us” didn’t make any plans that needed to be disrupted? Or is that too obvious?
Alternatively, governments dealing with a fast moving and complex situation got fractionally behind the curve and needed to catch up again. Or is that too simple?
The basic issue is one I posted on here last night and has been mentioned on Sky this morning. This new variant was identified in September. On Monday Hancock told the House it may be fuelling the rise in new cases. On Wednesday, however, Johnson was grandstanding about Starmer "wanting to cancel Christmas". Then we have yesterday's announcement. I think it is safe to say that on Monday (and perhaps earlier) there were good indications that this was going to be necessary. Yet they waited five days. That is not "fractionally" behind the curve. That is well behind the curve.
The new variant may have been identified in September but the consequences of it weren't known then.
NERVTAG reported on the R+0.4 on Thursday. Not in September, on Thursday.
As I understand it it goes like this.
1. We found the new variant early, and we've been tracking all the variants from the start. New variants in themselves are not significant.
2. When the November lockdown ended the limited effect of the lockdown in the South East started to ring alarm bells. This also conincided with the new variant becoming significantly more common in the region.
3. People started to wonder if the two things were linked, that the rise in cases was due to the new variant being more transmissible.
4. Modelling and analysis started a few weeks ago to try and get a handle on whether the new variant was responsible for the increasing cases.
5. Hancock raised the possibility of the new variant being responsible at the end of last week, and got criticised for it as quite a few scientists said "where's the evidence?"
6. NERVTAG reported at the end of this week that they had concluded that there was increased transmission due to the variant's mutation.
So it's absolutely true we knew about a new variant in September. But that is of no importance, as there are lots of variants. It was the ending of the November lockdown that highlighted a potential problem, and only at the end of this week did NERVTAG conclude the rise in cases were due to the mutations of the new variant. That's the important new information.
Boris Johnson told a Downing Street press conference on Saturday the new variant could be “up to 70% more transmissible”.
'Saturday' being 12 Dec.
Show me a webpage published before Saturday this week where he said that. Are you sure that wasn't an amendment to the page you keep mentioning?
I've gone straight to the horse's mouth, and found this from the 19th.
NERVTAG’s early analysis suggests the new variant could increase R by 0.4 or greater. Although there is considerable uncertainty, it may be up to 70% more transmissible than the old variant.
Hancock on Marr today made clear the government knew about and discussed the new variant last weekend. They suspected it was more transmissable, given the anecodtal evidence of much faster than projected spread in Kent and London, but this hadn't been proven.
Which takes us back to the art of politics as good judgement and timely decision making based on incomplete data.
If most of us could see this coming a mile away even if Boris and Nicola couldn’t presumably “most of us” didn’t make any plans that needed to be disrupted? Or is that too obvious?
Alternatively, governments dealing with a fast moving and complex situation got fractionally behind the curve and needed to catch up again. Or is that too simple?
The basic issue is one I posted on here last night and has been mentioned on Sky this morning. This new variant was identified in September. On Monday Hancock told the House it may be fuelling the rise in new cases. On Wednesday, however, Johnson was grandstanding about Starmer "wanting to cancel Christmas". Then we have yesterday's announcement. I think it is safe to say that on Monday (and perhaps earlier) there were good indications that this was going to be necessary. Yet they waited five days. That is not "fractionally" behind the curve. That is well behind the curve.
The new variant may have been identified in September but the consequences of it weren't known then.
NERVTAG reported on the R+0.4 on Thursday. Not in September, on Thursday.
As I understand it it goes like this.
1. We found the new variant early, and we've been tracking all the variants from the start. New variants in themselves are not significant.
2. When the November lockdown ended the limited effect of the lockdown in the South East started to ring alarm bells. This also conincided with the new variant becoming significantly more common in the region.
3. People started to wonder if the two things were linked, that the rise in cases was due to the new variant being more transmissible.
4. Modelling and analysis started a few weeks ago to try and get a handle on whether the new variant was responsible for the increasing cases.
5. Hancock raised the possibility of the new variant being responsible at the end of last week, and got criticised for it as quite a few scientists said "where's the evidence?"
6. NERVTAG reported at the end of this week that they had concluded that there was increased transmission due to the variant's mutation.
So it's absolutely true we knew about a new variant in September. But that is of no importance, as there are lots of variants. It was the ending of the November lockdown that highlighted a potential problem, and only at the end of this week did NERVTAG conclude the rise in cases were due to the mutations of the new variant. That's the important new information.
Boris Johnson told a Downing Street press conference on Saturday the new variant could be “up to 70% more transmissible”.
'Saturday' being 12 Dec.
"could" and "be up to". You seem incapable of understanding any scientific nuance.
Johnson is not an epidemiologist or a scientist. He acts on the advice of SAGE.
You will have a point if you can show that Johnson was told by SAGE it was really urgent to shut dow on Saturday, yet he sat on his bum for days.
BoZo is just a cork in a storm.
He is a specialist in impulsivity and procrastination, unable to make decisions until events force him into the only remaining option. In some ways this is fine in politics, as it allows creative destruction and innovation, but it is a disaster for those who do need a more stable environment. In this way we see the private life of feckless abandonment manifesting on a national scale.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
And with respect scientific qualifications have precisely nothing to do with the point I am making
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
String it out, now there is COVID 19 new strain! Another opportunity for both sides to say there are more important issues that Brexit, put it on hold for 3 or 6 months. Vast majority will agree. Gives everyone time to think. Talking about thinking, see Martial Law was on the agenda in the White House!! Must be in Trumps thinking. Then the reaction and chaos.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
Qualifications or not I bet he is correct , a big squirrel if ever I saw one.
It certainly convinced Nicola yesterday that she needed to stop intra UK travel. Unless you think that was something that she wanted to do anyway and it was just a convenient excuse...
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
HYUFD is, for the nth time, deliberately forgetting that the Scottish Greens are also pro-independence, as are the Scottish Socialists, etc.
Yet he is happy to lump together Tory, Labour and LDs as an imaginary Unionist bloc, while forgetting that even now some of the voters Labour have are pro-indy.
I voted for the Scottish Greens at the last general election, despite being a supporter of the Union, so it would equally be simplistic to count my vote as one for independence.
I really don't know what to do in the Holyrood elections as I would like to vote for the Greens again. Perhaps I will decide that the Climate is more important as a determinant of my vote.
Quite so, it is not possible to divide neatly into pro and anti indy blocs. And some people feel other things are more important. Though the Holyrood system is much fairer on the greens, so feel free to vote for them!
Talking about the Scottish Greens, did you see the news about Andy Wightman? It's not clear from the piece if he is going to stand as an independent MSP though I do hope so - he has done some really good work on land ownership and its abuse (targeting Labour councils as much as big landowners). I'd be tempted to vote for him on the List if I had the chance.
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
" Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so."
Totally agree. Any rational person would agree. But only if both parties in the negotiation are competent, diligent and of sound mind.
And there's no doubt that's true of Barnier and his team. But what if Johnson's so far gone he really does believe his own propaganda?
Hancock on Marr today made clear the government knew about and discussed the new variant last weekend. They suspected it was more transmissable, given the anecodtal evidence of much faster than projected spread in Kent and London, but this hadn't been proven.
So you can't find the PM saying what you claimed he said last Saturday?
Which takes us back to the art of politics as good judgement and timely decision making based on incomplete data.
No you were claiming that they knew last week, not that they suspected. The Professor from NERVTAG made it explicitly clear they only knew a couple of days ago, and in his opinion the government have acted promptly. Which is the opposite of what you are claiming, that the government were slow and already knew last week that the rises in cases were due to the mutations of the variant.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
And with respect scientific qualifications have precisely nothing to do with the point I am making
Unless I misunderstood your comments you are suggesting the big increase in cases isn't wholly or probably down to the new strain, when the whole purpose of moving London and the South East to tier 4 was that the scientific advise was that it is
On the EU negotiations. It looks like they are in the haggle stage. EU turning the screws on the UK to extract as much fish as possible and the UK holding out. Rightly so in the case of the UK. Fish quotas are a miniscule Brexit win to set against vast Brexit losses. But it is a win nevertheless and should be maximised,
My question to you is, does our deal on fishing concede to work with our neighbours to prevent over fishing as it does now? Will the deal allow EU to sell us the fish we need we can’t get from our waters, like cod? Will it allow our fishing industry to easily sell the fish they catch to EU country’s.
And a follow up if I may. Was the use of EU fishing boats in our waters imposed on us by EU, or something UK asked for, on basis smaller fish on the way to our waters were getting fished before they got here and UK created this policy on basis why not let them grow big and share the big ones, because without agreement we don’t have fish in our waters they fished before they get here?
Hancock’s statement to the House on Monday - “Over the last few days, thanks to our world-class genomic capability in the UK, we have identified a new variant of coronavirus which may be associated with the faster spread in the South East of England. Initial analysis suggests that this variant is growing faster than the existing variants.”
Hancock on the telly this morning says ministers only learnt about the infectivity of the new variant at 15.00 BST on Friday and Saturday's response was "one of the fastest decisions" taken during the pandemic.
So it’s a matter of degree.
It seems the main evidence for the higher transmissibility is the increasing incidence of the new strain.
One thing that was said was that it was at 28% in London in mid November and 60% on 9 December. That means it outcompeted other strains, and not just by the factor of two that those percentages suggest. You have to look at the ratios between the strains, where the new one increased from 28/72 to 60/40, which is a factor of 3.85.
That was over about three weeks, so taking the cubic root yields a weekly factor of 1.57, which is in the general ballpark of the "up to 70%" higher transmissibility that's been mentioned.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
That was my initial reaction, but a couple of things have made me reconsider.
Firstly, the data they showed on the prevalence of this strain increasing as a proportion of the total is quite suggestive.
Secondly, introducing new restrictions with less than 12 hours warning is reminiscent of the fear and panic in the spring. I think it indicates they believe the new strain is a real threat and aren't simply using it as an excuse.
Thirdly, look at the Scottish reaction. Sturgeon said that to date there were 17 recorded cases of the new variant in Scotland. But she cancelled all intra-UK movement by Scots to stop them bringing it back with them. She is clearly persuaded that this is different and a threat.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
HYUFD is, for the nth time, deliberately forgetting that the Scottish Greens are also pro-independence, as are the Scottish Socialists, etc.
Yet he is happy to lump together Tory, Labour and LDs as an imaginary Unionist bloc, while forgetting that even now some of the voters Labour have are pro-indy.
I voted for the Scottish Greens at the last general election, despite being a supporter of the Union, so it would equally be simplistic to count my vote as one for independence.
I really don't know what to do in the Holyrood elections as I would like to vote for the Greens again. Perhaps I will decide that the Climate is more important as a determinant of my vote.
Quite so, it is not possible to divide neatly into pro and anti indy blocs. And some people feel other things are more important. Though the Holyrood system is much fairer on the greens, so feel free to vote for them!
Talking about the Scottish Greens, did you see the news about Andy Wightman? It's not clear from the piece if he is going to stand as an independent MSP though I do hope so - he has done some really good work on land ownership and its abuse (targeting Labour councils as much as big landowners). I'd be tempted to vote for him on the List if I had the chance.
It's an issue which makes me sound like a reactionary old bigot, which makes me feel deeply uncomfortable.
I missed it being reported on here (else wouldn't have repeated) - was there any interesting upshot from ensuing discussion?
It didn't make an impression on the collective consciousness at the time.
Often I only read a small fraction of posts, so a degree of repetition can be helpful.
Thanks for that - it's easy to miss stuff as you say so good to know what was/was not said. I think it might be quite significant for some current Green voters, certainly in Lothian.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
HYUFD is, for the nth time, deliberately forgetting that the Scottish Greens are also pro-independence, as are the Scottish Socialists, etc.
Yet he is happy to lump together Tory, Labour and LDs as an imaginary Unionist bloc, while forgetting that even now some of the voters Labour have are pro-indy.
At the 2019 general election in Scotland the SNP got 45%, the Greens got 1% so 46% combined.
Therefore 54% of Scots still voted for Unionist parties combining the 25% for the Tories, 18.6% for Labour and 9.5% for the LDs and 0.6% for the Brexit Party and UKIP.
Voting for independence is not the same as voting for the SNP. There are leave supporters who back other parties. Come next May I will be one of them.
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
While I feel that a deal is more likely than not there is a part of me that would enjoy no deal just to see you eating some humble pie.
I wonder if the Germans have a word for that too?
I bet they do. But tbf there's a part of you - the Redwood part - that would in any case enjoy this particular Not Happening Event happening regardless of its undoubtedly devastating impact on my cred. NO DEAL = PROPER LEAVE. If I were a Brexit Headbanger it's what I would want.
Just out of interest how many years of lockdown do you think we need to endure before politicians aren't telling journalists asking questions that they are still on mute?
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
That was my initial reaction, but a couple of things have made me reconsider.
Firstly, the data they showed on the prevalence of this strain increasing as a proportion of the total is quite suggestive.
Secondly, introducing new restrictions with less than 12 hours warning is reminiscent of the fear and panic in the spring. I think it indicates they believe the new strain is a real threat and aren't simply using it as an excuse.
Thirdly, look at the Scottish reaction. Sturgeon said that to date there were 17 recorded cases of the new variant in Scotland. But she cancelled all intra-UK movement by Scots to stop them bringing it back with them. She is clearly persuaded that this is different and a threat.
Maybe that's partially because Sturgeon regrets not having been able to push through an elimination strategy in the summer, so this is a chance to have another go. On the other hand, we should all have learned by now that there's nothing to be gained from delaying decisions against an exponential enemy.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
Buried in the hoopla yesterday was Gove hyping the prospect of some “mini deals” to avoid disruption. Anyone who has money in the Smarkets market should read the small print.
Yes. I'm super confident on the big picture - no and never "WTO" - but the betting market as framed is a minefield and I haven't got involved.
Just out of interest how many years of lockdown do you think we need to endure before politicians aren't telling journalists asking questions that they are still on mute?
In fairness it has become a routine part of any multi-party meeting that I have been a part of since lockdown started. You can see that people are clearly talking but can't hear them. I think the default encouragement of mute because of feedback issues makes this inevitable.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Alternatively people couldn’t resist Christmas shopping.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Alternatively people couldn’t resist Christmas shopping.
Ok, so this ripped through Kent, previously one of the most compliant areas in the country, because of what then?
This new strain is real and it's everywhere now. You can stick your head in the sand all the way I until the government announces tier 4 restrictions nationally and European countries follow, doesn't mean it's not a real threat.
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
Whilst there will eventually be a deal, we have already done no deal. The deadline for industry has already gone passed and they are acting accordingly. That the government didn't understand this despite industry experts telling them is another of its failings.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
Hancock’s statement to the House on Monday - “Over the last few days, thanks to our world-class genomic capability in the UK, we have identified a new variant of coronavirus which may be associated with the faster spread in the South East of England. Initial analysis suggests that this variant is growing faster than the existing variants.”
Hancock on the telly this morning says ministers only learnt about the infectivity of the new variant at 15.00 BST on Friday and Saturday's response was "one of the fastest decisions" taken during the pandemic.
So it’s a matter of degree.
It seems the main evidence for the higher transmissibility is the increasing incidence of the new strain.
One thing that was said was that it was at 28% in London in mid November and 60% on 9 December. That means it outcompeted other strains, and not just by the factor of two that those percentages suggest. You have to look at the ratios between the strains, where the new one increased from 28/72 to 60/40, which is a factor of 3.85.
That was over about three weeks, so taking the cubic root yields a weekly factor of 1.57, which is in the general ballpark of the "up to 70%" higher transmissibility that's been mentioned.
Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.
What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts
Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc
The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.
Hancock’s statement to the House on Monday - “Over the last few days, thanks to our world-class genomic capability in the UK, we have identified a new variant of coronavirus which may be associated with the faster spread in the South East of England. Initial analysis suggests that this variant is growing faster than the existing variants.”
Hancock on the telly this morning says ministers only learnt about the infectivity of the new variant at 15.00 BST on Friday and Saturday's response was "one of the fastest decisions" taken during the pandemic.
So it’s a matter of degree.
It seems the main evidence for the higher transmissibility is the increasing incidence of the new strain.
One thing that was said was that it was at 28% in London in mid November and 60% on 9 December. That means it outcompeted other strains, and not just by the factor of two that those percentages suggest. You have to look at the ratios between the strains, where the new one increased from 28/72 to 60/40, which is a factor of 3.85.
That was over about three weeks, so taking the cubic root yields a weekly factor of 1.57, which is in the general ballpark of the "up to 70%" higher transmissibility that's been mentioned.
Anyone seen anything more concrete?
Why cubic root?
Exponential, so you have to multiply in sequence, and then do a root extraction to get the original factor over the specified period.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
No, Switzerland and Russia have approved vaccines.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
I think things have gone so far that even if Starmerite policies (not sure we know what these are yet) were to the taste of Scottish voters, Labour are no longer seen as a a Scottish party anymore. I think independence is inevitable now. The only questions remaining are when and how rancorous.
I think it is too. So I'm rooting for Sindy2 in this parliament and a clear Yes. A close No would be the worst outcome imo.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Alternatively people couldn’t resist Christmas shopping.
Ok, so this ripped through Kent, previously one of the most compliant areas in the country, because of what then?
This new strain is real and it's everywhere now. You can stick your head in the sand all the way I until the government announces tier 4 restrictions nationally and European countries follow, doesn't mean it's not a real threat.
I wish it was the government trying it on, and that they were using the variant as an excuse to "u-turn". It would be great to think that this is a stunt. Sadly I agree with Max, this is really bad news, and we need vaccines to come sooner and being taken up to a higher level. 2021 is going to be grim.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.
Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford
I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature
However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better
Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day
Just out of interest how many years of lockdown do you think we need to endure before politicians aren't telling journalists asking questions that they are still on mute?
In fairness it has become a routine part of any multi-party meeting that I have been a part of since lockdown started. You can see that people are clearly talking but can't hear them. I think the default encouragement of mute because of feedback issues makes this inevitable.
I've found it's far better to work on headphones.Doing so effectively mutes extraneous noise.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
I read a report this morning that 15,000 avoudable deaths within the EU will come about as a result of the delay in the vaccine
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Alternatively people couldn’t resist Christmas shopping.
Ok, so this ripped through Kent, previously one of the most compliant areas in the country, because of what then?
This new strain is real and it's everywhere now. You can stick your head in the sand all the way I until the government announces tier 4 restrictions nationally and European countries follow, doesn't mean it's not a real threat.
Sorry max, there has been localism throughout this pandemic, only now are government linking the localism to strains. Also it is going up all over country and Europe during Christmas shopping season, you have seen the footage of the shoppers not 2 yards apart and maskless?
And Kent is special because it’s now a lorry traffic jam, apart from the contractors cementing it over, how do you really know what’s caused the spike there that’s different to the Liverpool spike few months back?
Hancock’s statement to the House on Monday - “Over the last few days, thanks to our world-class genomic capability in the UK, we have identified a new variant of coronavirus which may be associated with the faster spread in the South East of England. Initial analysis suggests that this variant is growing faster than the existing variants.”
Hancock on the telly this morning says ministers only learnt about the infectivity of the new variant at 15.00 BST on Friday and Saturday's response was "one of the fastest decisions" taken during the pandemic.
So it’s a matter of degree.
It seems the main evidence for the higher transmissibility is the increasing incidence of the new strain.
One thing that was said was that it was at 28% in London in mid November and 60% on 9 December. That means it outcompeted other strains, and not just by the factor of two that those percentages suggest. You have to look at the ratios between the strains, where the new one increased from 28/72 to 60/40, which is a factor of 3.85.
That was over about three weeks, so taking the cubic root yields a weekly factor of 1.57, which is in the general ballpark of the "up to 70%" higher transmissibility that's been mentioned.
Anyone seen anything more concrete?
Why cubic root?
What are the causes you have factored in there?
(Geniune interest)
Cheers
Cubic root, or third root, just because it's three weeks. 1.57*1.57*1.57 = 3.87.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
I read a report this morning that 15,000 avoudable deaths within the EU will come about as a result of the delay in the vaccine
In hindsight UK government looks good to have bitten the bullet with fast tracking . Or is it related though to throwing cash at stocks? How much has it cost economy to throw so much money at vaccine buying?
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
" Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so."
Totally agree. Any rational person would agree. But only if both parties in the negotiation are competent, diligent and of sound mind.
And there's no doubt that's true of Barnier and his team. But what if Johnson's so far gone he really does believe his own propaganda?
Then I have this wrong and it's hello WTO and a big NI problem. But no, can't see it. Johnson wants the Deal to be unexpected when he announces it. There's a political benefit in that which to him outweighs the anxiety the No Deal hype is causing the people he is supposed to represent. It's on brand.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Alternatively people couldn’t resist Christmas shopping.
Ok, so this ripped through Kent, previously one of the most compliant areas in the country, because of what then?
This new strain is real and it's everywhere now. You can stick your head in the sand all the way I until the government announces tier 4 restrictions nationally and European countries follow, doesn't mean it's not a real threat.
Sorry max, there has been localism throughout this pandemic, only now are government linking the localism to strains. Also it is going up all over country and Europe during Christmas shopping season, you have seen the footage of the shoppers not 2 yards apart and maskless?
And Kent is special because it’s now a lorry traffic jam, apart from the contractors cementing it over, how do you really know what’s caused the spike there that’s different to the Liverpool spike few months back?
Are you thick? The explosion of cases in Kent has been linked to areas nowhere near the haulage routes. It's linked back to a prison and the surrounding areas which then spread to the rest of the SE and then London and now into the East of England in a big way and a small way to the rest of the country and Europe.
2021 is going to be just as bad as 2020 unless European countries act now to invest in huge vaccine production now for delivery in March. We might be ok with what we have but it's no use having a working economy if the rest of the world is fucked.
OT. Cliff Richard on Desert Island Discs saying he was discovered at the 2 I's in Soho. Amongst the alumni of 55 Old Compton St (above the 2 I's)....Ist floor Roger, Second floor Robert Chote, 3rd floor Rachel Johnson, Top floor Fiammetta Rocca.
Though by then the 2 I's it had become 'Pussy Galore'
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
I think things have gone so far that even if Starmerite policies (not sure we know what these are yet) were to the taste of Scottish voters, Labour are no longer seen as a a Scottish party anymore. I think independence is inevitable now. The only questions remaining are when and how rancorous.
I agree and Labour should shoulder most of the blame.
Is that a hint of pre-independence buyers remorse? You sound like a Tory. Has Philip Thompson or Bluest Blue hacked your account?
Not a chance but Labour ran Scotland into the ground for decades, filling their own pockets , graft etc and then led the referendum campaign for the Tories. They stopped us getting devolution in 1979 and then helped stop independence in 2014. They are not for Scotland. However I would absolutely not in any circumstances support the Tories. My hope is that there will be a choice of real Scottish political parties nothing like the putrid London parties. I will be looking for a centre party that cares about people without being left wing morons like Labour or right wing nutjobs like Tories.
Inevitably the cancelling of Christmas for many has taken all the headlines. Today is supposed to be the last day which would allow the European Parliament to ratify the deal and would presumably be seriously close to the last day that Parliament could be recalled for any legislation etc. but barely a whimper. We are all bored to tears with Brexit. If the EU are determined not to have a deal, whatever. Its just too boring to waste more time on and we have more important things to worry about.
I certainly have plenty of blame to share around all this, but it is pretty clear months of talking have been a complete waste of time, since the issues of contention are stated to be few and yet progress has not been made. They both might well pull their finger out at the last last minute, but there's no excuse or justification for why it has gotten to this point if both sides want a deal as much as they say they do. They are posturing, constantly saying they want one without being willing to actually negotiate, just hold position and extend the time, rather than set a time and being forced to negotiate to meet it.
Boris tried that in October, remember? It didn't work. There are too many on both sides who don't want a deal and want to "punish" the other side from the lunatics in the ERG to the Eurofanatics to whom leaving the project is simple heresy. As you say, if both sides had wanted a deal this would have been done and dusted months ago.
Greatly looking forward to ‘BJ the innocent bystander & voice of reason’ being tried on. I really could do with a hearty guffaw.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.
Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford
I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature
However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better
Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day
Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.
For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?
Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.
They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?
*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
I read a report this morning that 15,000 avoudable deaths within the EU will come about as a result of the delay in the vaccine
In hindsight UK government looks good to have bitten the bullet with fast tracking . Or is it related though to throwing cash at stocks? How much has it cost economy to throw so much money at vaccine buying?
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
Whilst there will eventually be a deal, we have already done no deal. The deadline for industry has already gone passed and they are acting accordingly. That the government didn't understand this despite industry experts telling them is another of its failings.
Yep. Read your informative post on this the other day. "Deal" but with much of the now and near-term chaos of "No Deal". Trebles all round.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Alternatively people couldn’t resist Christmas shopping.
Ok, so this ripped through Kent, previously one of the most compliant areas in the country, because of what then?
This new strain is real and it's everywhere now. You can stick your head in the sand all the way I until the government announces tier 4 restrictions nationally and European countries follow, doesn't mean it's not a real threat.
Sorry max, there has been localism throughout this pandemic, only now are government linking the localism to strains. Also it is going up all over country and Europe during Christmas shopping season, you have seen the footage of the shoppers not 2 yards apart and maskless?
And Kent is special because it’s now a lorry traffic jam, apart from the contractors cementing it over, how do you really know what’s caused the spike there that’s different to the Liverpool spike few months back?
Are you thick? The explosion of cases in Kent has been linked to areas nowhere near the haulage routes. It's linked back to a prison and the surrounding areas which then spread to the rest of the SE and then London and now into the East of England in a big way and a small way to the rest of the country and Europe.
2021 is going to be just as bad as 2020 unless European countries act now to invest in huge vaccine production now for delivery in March. We might be ok with what we have but it's no use having a working economy if the rest of the world is fucked.
Lead times already makes more production for delivery in March impossible.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Alternatively people couldn’t resist Christmas shopping.
Ok, so this ripped through Kent, previously one of the most compliant areas in the country, because of what then?
This new strain is real and it's everywhere now. You can stick your head in the sand all the way I until the government announces tier 4 restrictions nationally and European countries follow, doesn't mean it's not a real threat.
I wish it was the government trying it on, and that they were using the variant as an excuse to "u-turn". It would be great to think that this is a stunt. Sadly I agree with Max, this is really bad news, and we need vaccines to come sooner and being taken up to a higher level. 2021 is going to be grim.
I know, I wish is was as simple as that and we could just ignore it and it would go away. We're all in for a very tough 2021 unless European countries act now to ramp up vaccine production. We should be paying Moderna whatever they want to allow GSK to licence manufacturing in the UK, fuck their own attempts and commercial considerations. Their vaccine has failed to launch, now they need to put their manufacturing capacity into a working vaccine, that means Moderna where Europe is waiting for Switzerland's considerable industry to ramp up.
I have to say on a different subject Universal Credit I was wrong . My daughter who has a severley disabled child got divorced in September. So had to move from legacy benefits to UC.
It was all done on line and the first payment arrived 5 weeks after the initial claim. She obtained an advance payment to cover this period to pay the bills. The payment from then on is paid the same day every month , which is easier to budget.
My only concern would be for people, who do not have access to the Internet, or do not have a mobile phone , or id such as a passport. However in this crisis I was impressed how the DWP , assisted my daughter as she does not need any more stress, with looking after a severley disabled child.
On the EU negotiations. It looks like they are in the haggle stage. EU turning the screws on the UK to extract as much fish as possible and the UK holding out. Rightly so in the case of the UK. Fish quotas are a miniscule Brexit win to set against vast Brexit losses. But it is a win nevertheless and should be maximised,
My question to you is, does our deal on fishing concede to work with our neighbours to prevent over fishing as it does now? Will the deal allow EU to sell us the fish we need we can’t get from our waters, like cod? Will it allow our fishing industry to easily sell the fish they catch to EU country’s.
And a follow up if I may. Was the use of EU fishing boats in our waters imposed on us by EU, or something UK asked for, on basis smaller fish on the way to our waters were getting fished before they got here and UK created this policy on basis why not let them grow big and share the big ones, because without agreement we don’t have fish in our waters they fished before they get here?
On the last one, fishery was declared a common resource for EU countries in 1970 just before the four countries (UK, RI, Denmark and Norway) with significant fishing resources in handed in their applications to join. I term that a simple mugging.
"The first rules were created in 1970. The original six Common Market members realised that four countries applying to join the Common Market at that time (Britain, Ireland, Denmark including Greenland, and Norway) would control the richest fishing grounds in the world. The original six therefore drew up Council Regulation 2141/70 giving all Members equal access to all fishing waters, even though the Treaty of Rome did not explicitly include fisheries in its agriculture chapter. This was adopted on the morning of 30 June 1970, a few hours before the applications to join were officially received. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Fisheries_Policy
Norway chose to walk away at that point. Greenland walked away when they gained more autonomy from Denmark. Iceland later withdrew its later application to join over EU access to all their fishing waters.
It's certainly visceral.
Personally I don't see that the EU fisheries policy can regulate its way out of a wet paper bag - the throwing back dead fish that did not fit the quota has been known for decades and not addressed, or compare the relative success of Marine Conservations Zones between northern waters and the Mediterranean.
A little disingenuous of him to say that the PM had a "plan for a free-for-all over Christmas". How was the original plan a "free-for-all"?
For the virus, for a start.
And oine might think that Mr J's behavious at the recent PMQ iallows a certain licence in retaliatory rhetoric.
Yes. That has backfired on him so badly. He looks like a fatuous prick now. Worse than that, a fool. I wonder if he'll learn from it and start growing into the role?
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Alternatively people couldn’t resist Christmas shopping.
Ok, so this ripped through Kent, previously one of the most compliant areas in the country, because of what then?
This new strain is real and it's everywhere now. You can stick your head in the sand all the way I until the government announces tier 4 restrictions nationally and European countries follow, doesn't mean it's not a real threat.
Sorry max, there has been localism throughout this pandemic, only now are government linking the localism to strains. Also it is going up all over country and Europe during Christmas shopping season, you have seen the footage of the shoppers not 2 yards apart and maskless?
And Kent is special because it’s now a lorry traffic jam, apart from the contractors cementing it over, how do you really know what’s caused the spike there that’s different to the Liverpool spike few months back?
Are you thick? The explosion of cases in Kent has been linked to areas nowhere near the haulage routes. It's linked back to a prison and the surrounding areas which then spread to the rest of the SE and then London and now into the East of England in a big way and a small way to the rest of the country and Europe.
2021 is going to be just as bad as 2020 unless European countries act now to invest in huge vaccine production now for delivery in March. We might be ok with what we have but it's no use having a working economy if the rest of the world is fucked.
Lead times already makes more production for delivery in March impossible.
Tbh, that's money related. If we throw enough money at the problem those lead times fall. Also we should be getting the likes of GSK and Sanofi who's own vaccine has failed to launch to licence manufacturing from other companies like Moderna. Commercial considerations are no longer relevant. If you can't get an approved vaccine by the middle of 2021 then it's time to start licencing those that do work.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.
Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford
I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature
However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better
Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day
Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.
For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?
Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.
They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?
*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?
iirc the photo that was circulating of Whitty looking like something in a Cold War Steve montage was actually taken in April.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
"being twattish" (aka negotiating) is fairly common in trade talks, I believe.
If the UK were negotiating in the same spirit as France, we would have yesterdy introduced the return of Calais into the mix.
With the same intention of arriving at No Deal.
The UK has negotiated in an absurd way very often ; it's held up co-operation on vital common security issues as a negotiation tactic multiple times, for instance.
That would be why we are being excluded from the security systems operated by Schengen and the EU as well as the criminal data base then despite being clear that we wanted to remain a part of both then? For goodness sake, get real.
When you leave a club and insult the members you can hardly hope to pick and choose the benefits you want them to let you keep using, whilst constantly insulting them into the bargain.
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
While I feel that a deal is more likely than not there is a part of me that would enjoy no deal just to see you eating some humble pie.
I wonder if the Germans have a word for that too?
I bet they do. But tbf there's a part of you - the Redwood part - that would in any case enjoy this particular Not Happening Event happening regardless of its undoubtedly devastating impact on my cred. NO DEAL = PROPER LEAVE. If I were a Brexit Headbanger it's what I would want.
I am not a Brexit Headbanger.
If anything I am a Democracy Headbanger.
Democracy must be respected even if, perhaps especially if, the people vote for what you consider to be the Wrong Thing (TM).
In 2016 had we voted to Remain then I would have been OK with that. We did not though. We voted to Take Back Control of our laws and sovereignty and I want that respected.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.
Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford
I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature
However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better
Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day
Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.
For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?
Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.
They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?
*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?
But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement
Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures
Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday
Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.
What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts
Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc
The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.
How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.
A story to illustrate.
Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.
Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
HYUFD is, for the nth time, deliberately forgetting that the Scottish Greens are also pro-independence, as are the Scottish Socialists, etc.
Yet he is happy to lump together Tory, Labour and LDs as an imaginary Unionist bloc, while forgetting that even now some of the voters Labour have are pro-indy.
I voted for the Scottish Greens at the last general election, despite being a supporter of the Union, so it would equally be simplistic to count my vote as one for independence.
I really don't know what to do in the Holyrood elections as I would like to vote for the Greens again. Perhaps I will decide that the Climate is more important as a determinant of my vote.
Quite so, it is not possible to divide neatly into pro and anti indy blocs. And some people feel other things are more important. Though the Holyrood system is much fairer on the greens, so feel free to vote for them!
Talking about the Scottish Greens, did you see the news about Andy Wightman? It's not clear from the piece if he is going to stand as an independent MSP though I do hope so - he has done some really good work on land ownership and its abuse (targeting Labour councils as much as big landowners). I'd be tempted to vote for him on the List if I had the chance.
OT. Cliff Richard on Desert Island Discs saying he was discovered at the 2 I's in Soho. Amongst the alumni of 55 Old Compton St (above the 2 I's)....Ist floor Roger, Second floor Robert Chote, 3rd floor Rachel Johnson, Top floor Fiammetta Rocca.
Though by then the 2 I's it had become 'Pussy Galore'
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
I wonder if any country had identified the virulent variant but kept quiet about it.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.
Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford
I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature
However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better
Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day
Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.
For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?
Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.
They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?
*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?
But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement
Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures
Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday
Because it would have been political suicide to cancel Christmas whilst Christmas was still 'on' in England.
Sturgeon clearly did not want the relaxation but lacked the will to go it alone. She must be relishing the opportunity to soft lockdown the country and the extra school time off is going to look like a master stroke in 6 months time.
I have to say on a different subject Universal Credit I was wrong . My daughter who has a severley disabled child got divorced in September. So had to move from legacy benefits to UC.
It was all done on line and the first payment arrived 5 weeks after the initial claim. She obtained an advance payment to cover this period to pay the bills. The payment from then on is paid the same day every month , which is easier to budget.
My only concern would be for people, who do not have access to the Internet, or do not have a mobile phone , or id such as a passport. However in this crisis I was impressed how the DWP , assisted my daughter as she does not need any more stress, with looking after a severley disabled child.
That's good to hear.
But I still don't understand why they have the five week delay.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.
Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford
I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature
However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better
Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day
Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.
For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?
Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.
They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?
*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?
But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement
Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures
Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday
It's also worth noting the timetable of all this.
Someone on Thursday (I don't recall who sorry) wrote a comment here that there was an emergency government "Covid O Committee" (may have got name wrong) going on at that time and said they thought that was bad news as the committee had met that morning. So there must be something serious to recall them hours later to meet again.
New we know what it was. It was the NERVTAG report. So the Covid O Committee met Thursday morning, the NERVTAG reported on Thursday, then the Covid O Committee was recalled also on Thursday, with the new Tiers and restrictions sequentially announced by Boris, Drakeford and Sturgeon. With Foster saying she is still absorbing the news and will respond later.
Quite clearly the NERVTAG report on Thursday shook everyone and everything.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.
Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford
I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature
However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better
Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day
Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.
For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?
Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.
They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?
*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?
But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement
Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures
Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday
Wowsers. You really will defend anything. We know for a fact that they knew this was out there and that it was bad. The only question was how much worse than standard Covid. So obviously attacking schools and calling what they are now themselves doing was obviously the smart political strategy.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
I wonder if any country had identified the virulent variant but kept quiet about it.
We know the Danes did over Mink COVID. I do wonder whether that is related to this new strain from Kent.
Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.
What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts
Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc
The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.
How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.
A story to illustrate.
Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.
Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.
I think this is right. This is mainly about trust in the messaging and the messenger - which is Boris Johnson and his team - rather than what the law says. It cannot and will not be policed. This is why I find the louder end of the "loss of liberties" strand of opinion to be off-beam and rather precious. Also why it's not fair to be blaming the public for outraged or panicky reactions to yesterday's Christmas kibosh. Responsibility for this one lies squarely with the PM and the government.
Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.
What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts
Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc
The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.
How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.
A story to illustrate.
Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.
Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.
Indeed. The Tories have absolutely gutted the police of resources. The same MPs who voted again and again and again to cut funding and thus officer numbers then whine about the lack of officers.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
The delay will mean thousands more die throughout the EU.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
No, Switzerland and Russia have approved vaccines.
EMA has decided against taking shortcuts and doing an emergency approval like MHRA, because they didn't want to undermine public confidence in the vaccination effort. Wether that was a wise decision, or not, will become evident later on. A week ago the CHMP session had been rescheduled for tomorrow. On approval, the rollout will start on the 27th.
I have to say on a different subject Universal Credit I was wrong . My daughter who has a severley disabled child got divorced in September. So had to move from legacy benefits to UC.
It was all done on line and the first payment arrived 5 weeks after the initial claim. She obtained an advance payment to cover this period to pay the bills. The payment from then on is paid the same day every month , which is easier to budget.
My only concern would be for people, who do not have access to the Internet, or do not have a mobile phone , or id such as a passport. However in this crisis I was impressed how the DWP , assisted my daughter as she does not need any more stress, with looking after a severley disabled child.
That's good to hear.
But I still don't understand why they have the five week delay.
To punish them for daring to claim. I can't think what else it is. When I was a student in the 1970s and claimed during the vacs when I coiuldn't get a job, the delay was a week at most, and that was before modern IT systems.
Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.
What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts
Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc
The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.
How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.
A story to illustrate.
Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.
Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.
Indeed. The Tories have absolutely gutted the police of resources. The same MPs who voted again and again and again to cut funding and thus officer numbers then whine about the lack of officers.
In Scotland the Tories claimed they made the SNP recruit extra officers (which migjt well be true).
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
If that had been all it was then we would never have left. But given it was already far more than that and intended to continue to develop in ways that we were completely opposed to, leaving was the only sane thing to do.
I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.
And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement
No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.
I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.
Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford
I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature
However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better
Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day
Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.
For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?
Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.
They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?
*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?
But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement
Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures
Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday
Wowsers. You really will defend anything. We know for a fact that they knew this was out there and that it was bad. The only question was how much worse than standard Covid. So obviously attacking schools and calling what they are now themselves doing was obviously the smart political strategy.
Why not answer the question
Why did Boris, Sturgeon and Drakeford only act immediately after the advice on Friday if they had known before
Comments
It's an issue which makes me sound like a reactionary old bigot, which makes me feel deeply uncomfortable.
It is essentially the Swiss model. The EU hare it but if we get that it is a tremendous diplomatic success.
Firstly, the data they showed on the prevalence of this strain increasing as a proportion of the total is quite suggestive.
Secondly, introducing new restrictions with less than 12 hours warning is reminiscent of the fear and panic in the spring. I think it indicates they believe the new strain is a real threat and aren't simply using it as an excuse.
Which takes us back to the art of politics as good judgement and timely decision making based on incomplete data.
He is a specialist in impulsivity and procrastination, unable to make decisions until events force him into the only remaining option. In some ways this is fine in politics, as it allows creative destruction and innovation, but it is a disaster for those who do need a more stable environment. In this way we see the private life of feckless abandonment manifesting on a national scale.
Was the Barcelona one also linked to variation? Are all the surges linked to mutation?
Good post Doug.
Talking about thinking, see Martial Law was on the agenda in the White House!! Must be in Trumps thinking. Then the reaction and chaos.
Often I only read a small fraction of posts, so a degree of repetition can be helpful.
Totally agree. Any rational person would agree. But only if both parties in the negotiation are competent, diligent and of sound mind.
And there's no doubt that's true of Barnier and his team. But what if Johnson's so far gone he really does believe his own propaganda?
And a follow up if I may. Was the use of EU fishing boats in our waters imposed on us by EU, or something UK asked for, on basis smaller fish on the way to our waters were getting fished before they got here and UK created this policy on basis why not let them grow big and share the big ones, because without agreement we don’t have fish in our waters they fished before they get here?
One thing that was said was that it was at 28% in London in mid November and 60% on 9 December. That means it outcompeted other strains, and not just by the factor of two that those percentages suggest. You have to look at the ratios between the strains, where the new one increased from 28/72 to 60/40, which is a factor of 3.85.
That was over about three weeks, so taking the cubic root yields a weekly factor of 1.57, which is in the general ballpark of the "up to 70%" higher transmissibility that's been mentioned.
Anyone seen anything more concrete?
He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
This new strain is real and it's everywhere now. You can stick your head in the sand all the way I until the government announces tier 4 restrictions nationally and European countries follow, doesn't mean it's not a real threat.
And oine might think that Mr J's behavious at the recent PMQ iallows a certain licence in retaliatory rhetoric.
What are the causes you have factored in there?
(Geniune interest)
Cheers
What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort
Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts
Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc
The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.
BTW - how dod you like the pickled herring?
I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature
However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better
Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day
And Kent is special because it’s now a lorry traffic jam, apart from the contractors cementing it over, how do you really know what’s caused the spike there that’s different to the Liverpool spike few months back?
2021 is going to be just as bad as 2020 unless European countries act now to invest in huge vaccine production now for delivery in March. We might be ok with what we have but it's no use having a working economy if the rest of the world is fucked.
Though by then the 2 I's it had become 'Pussy Galore'
They stopped us getting devolution in 1979 and then helped stop independence in 2014. They are not for Scotland.
However I would absolutely not in any circumstances support the Tories. My hope is that there will be a choice of real Scottish political parties nothing like the putrid London parties. I will be looking for a centre party that cares about people without being left wing morons like Labour or right wing nutjobs like Tories.
For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?
Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.
They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?
*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?
My daughter who has a severley disabled child got divorced in September.
So had to move from legacy benefits to UC.
It was all done on line and the first payment arrived 5 weeks after the initial claim.
She obtained an advance payment to cover this period to pay the bills.
The payment from then on is paid the same day every month , which is easier to budget.
My only concern would be for people, who do not have access to the Internet, or do not have a mobile phone , or id such as a passport.
However in this crisis I was impressed how the DWP , assisted my daughter as she does not need any more stress, with looking after a severley disabled child.
https://twitter.com/ftfinancenews/status/1340522544944848901?s=19
"The first rules were created in 1970. The original six Common Market members realised that four countries applying to join the Common Market at that time (Britain, Ireland, Denmark including Greenland, and Norway) would control the richest fishing grounds in the world. The original six therefore drew up Council Regulation 2141/70 giving all Members equal access to all fishing waters, even though the Treaty of Rome did not explicitly include fisheries in its agriculture chapter. This was adopted on the morning of 30 June 1970, a few hours before the applications to join were officially received.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Fisheries_Policy
Norway chose to walk away at that point.
Greenland walked away when they gained more autonomy from Denmark.
Iceland later withdrew its later application to join over EU access to all their fishing waters.
It's certainly visceral.
Personally I don't see that the EU fisheries policy can regulate its way out of a wet paper bag - the throwing back dead fish that did not fit the quota has been known for decades and not addressed, or compare the relative success of Marine Conservations Zones between northern waters and the Mediterranean.
If anything I am a Democracy Headbanger.
Democracy must be respected even if, perhaps especially if, the people vote for what you consider to be the Wrong Thing (TM).
In 2016 had we voted to Remain then I would have been OK with that. We did not though. We voted to Take Back Control of our laws and sovereignty and I want that respected.
Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures
Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday
A story to illustrate.
Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.
Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Sturgeon clearly did not want the relaxation but lacked the will to go it alone. She must be relishing the opportunity to soft lockdown the country and the extra school time off is going to look like a master stroke in 6 months time.
But I still don't understand why they have the five week delay.
Someone on Thursday (I don't recall who sorry) wrote a comment here that there was an emergency government "Covid O Committee" (may have got name wrong) going on at that time and said they thought that was bad news as the committee had met that morning. So there must be something serious to recall them hours later to meet again.
New we know what it was. It was the NERVTAG report. So the Covid O Committee met Thursday morning, the NERVTAG reported on Thursday, then the Covid O Committee was recalled also on Thursday, with the new Tiers and restrictions sequentially announced by Boris, Drakeford and Sturgeon. With Foster saying she is still absorbing the news and will respond later.
Quite clearly the NERVTAG report on Thursday shook everyone and everything.
A week ago the CHMP session had been rescheduled for tomorrow. On approval, the rollout will start on the 27th.
Have they kidnapped Frost ?
So much for the Union.
Why did Boris, Sturgeon and Drakeford only act immediately after the advice on Friday if they had known before