» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
That's an insult to ten year olds
I thought it was more akin to bullying. But what do I know.
Bullying is tolerated around here now, as we have learned.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
Not to mention one of Mrs Thatcher's magic money trees, North Sea Oil.
Since the government was seemingly willing to allow C-19 to remain in the English population at a much higher level than many other parts of the world, so long as the NHS was not overwhelmed, was it not therefore more likely that more mutations would likely be occurring here in England that other places which tried to keep the infection rates far lower?
Since the premise of your comment is completely wrong then the subsequent question is pointless.
We have had fewer restrictions, government policy, than many other countries and have amongst the highest death rates as a consequence does not equate to government policy leading to higher infection rates?
But, it is a difficult argument to make.
In general, mutations are good, as the virus mutates to a less deadly version (it is not in the virus' interests to kill the host).
There are have already been 20,000 mutations recorded.
So, you could argue that allowing plenty of opportunity to mutate is a good thing.
It is always easier to break something to fix it -- and that goes for viruses too. The more it is allowed to mutate, probably the better.
Not true. Viruses mutate randomly, and there is no reason to think less lethal mutations are more frequent. It's about which mutations get selected for. Killing vs not killing the host is not selective when you have a virtually infinite supply of infectable new hosts. So your claim applies to snow leopard viruses but not really to human ones.
Agree. The virus has no ability to mutate as more or less deadly. It is entirely random. It is simply a case of how easy it is to survive and multiply. A virus that kills instantly upon infection will not be successful as it won't get a chance to spread, but if a virus was easily transmittable and took time to make the host ill so that it could spread easily and yet be 100% fatal it would be a viable mutation.
The mutations are random, but the tendency is for viruses to become less deadly (for which there is plenty of empirical evidence).
Your argument assumes no correlation between transmissibility and onset of the disease.
Can you provide an example of a virus that has mutated to become more infectious AND with a longer onset time?
Actually, the strong correlation in respiratory diseases is an inverse one between transmissibility and morbidity/mortality and there is a well-understood mechanism for this. Sneezing assists in transmissibility of respiratory diseases, and sneezes are induced more in infections of the upper respiratory tract which tend to have lower morbidity/mortality levels than diseases of the lower respiratory tract (i.e. those that bind in the nose and throat, rather than in the bronchi and lungs).
That is part of what makes COVID so unusual and deadly - SARS-CoV-2 binds with just about every tissue in the human body (as every tissue has the ACE-2 receptor to which the spike protein binds, and every tissue has one of the protease surface enzymes that activate the spike protein (i.e. cleave one of the sub-units so that it opens up that part of the protein thereby allowing the virus to enter the cell and infect it)) thus it is binding in both upper and lower respiratory tracts causing both high transmissibility and high morbidity/mortality.
AND about half of all transmission happens before onset of symptoms.
Tim T. I thought you said the other day that the mutations in the virus we are currently concerned about don't affect the spike protein. But it seems clear that the mutations do affect the spike protein. Maybe only slightly but apparently significantly in terms of speed of spread of the virus. So I probably misread or misunderstood what you said?
Can you clarify what you said please and also what are your thoughts on the likelihood of current or future mutations significantly reducing the efficacy of current vaccines? Thanks.
There is no evidence that I have seen that any of the mutations to date have effected the binding domain of the spike protein. I have not seen any genomic data on the London mutation, so cannot definitively state that to be the case for it.
There are many factors, probably many we don't even know about yet, that go into making a virus transmissible. So far, at a biochemical level, I am aware of 3 related to COVID - the affinity for the spike protein to bind to the ACE-2 receptor, the efficacy of the surface proteases in activating the spike protein by cleaving it 'correctly', and some not-yet-understood role for polysaccharides on the cell surface for mediating all of this.
But then other factors relating to its morbidity will also play into transmissibility (I have mentioned infection of the upper respiratory tract causing sneezing). I am sure we do not know all the ways in which the other factors contribute to transmissibility.
In short, the spike protein, while a/the key factor, is not the only factor in transmissibility.
As always, I stand ready to learn from others on the site with better information.
Thanks. I think I follow you. So does it follow that
If there have been no mutations to date that have effected the binding domain of the spike protein
and
Current vaccines target the spike protein including the binding domain
then
No mutations to date will have effected current vaccines efficacy?
The 0.4 bump to R0 looks like an optimistic assessment.
Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.
Begs the question then of why they used the 0.4 number in the government briefing, if that's the *lower* end of the estimate. Easier to justify immediate tier 4 if it's actually potentially an even higher increase than that.
But if it is anywhere near that high then we're surely completely fucked as the virus will be rampant even with lockdown.
They'd be accused of scaremongering if they said R was up by 1 but in fact it was only 0.4, and they had evidence showing it was only up by 0.4 (albeit with error bars).
I'm not saying they had to say it was 1.
I'm saying that if they were saying the value could add 0.4 to R they could easily have qualified that with "at least" or "and it could be even higher" and not misrepresent the NERVTAG minutes.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
It was the only logically consistent conclusion from his statement that the clown is the third best PM of his lifetime, as our SO quickly identified.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
That's an insult to ten year olds
I thought it was more akin to bullying. But what do I know.
Bullying is tolerated around here now, as we have learned.
I think Rob might have missed Ian's point on the ten year old bit; ie that for Boris to have been the second or third best PM in his life, Phil couldn't be more than 10. You were just throwing an insult around, whether or not you spotted Ian's joke.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
That's an insult to ten year olds
I thought it was more akin to bullying. But what do I know.
Bullying is tolerated around here now, as we have learned.
I think Rob might have missed Ian's point on the ten year old bit; ie that for Boris to have been the second or third best PM in his life, Phil couldn't be more than 10. You were just throwing an insult around, whether or not you spotted Ian's joke.
I didn't spot Ian's joke no, very smart now you've pointed it out.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
I hope that too. But even if I'm dead I'll be watching, and still posting if necessary, e.g. where there is jingoism or facetious reactionary mocking that needs to be called out.
No Rishi you can sod off thanks, I'm going to use it to buy a house since your useless Government won't help
LOLs, CHB. If this is your first house-buying venture, I guess you haven't worked out what a spending spree a house purchase will launch. And you'll be adding both Stamp duty and VAT to the Exchequer.
Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.
What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts
Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc
The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.
How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.
A story to illustrate.
Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.
Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.
Indeed. The Tories have absolutely gutted the police of resources. The same MPs who voted again and again and again to cut funding and thus officer numbers then whine about the lack of officers.
Number of officers in England and Wales increased by 20k from June 19 to June 20.
Are you sure that is what the paper shows? Although the target is 20,000 more police officers, we are not there yet, with the report showing a record increase of 6,000. Boris won in 2019 by running on Labour's 2017 platform, when Jeremy Corbyn had criticised Theresa May for axing 20,000 coppers, and that is why Boris's target is 20,000.
As we expect . Tories lies. Will be like the 40 new hospitals that will never be built.
No Rishi you can sod off thanks, I'm going to use it to buy a house since your useless Government won't help
LOLs, CHB. If this is your first house-buying venture, I guess you haven't worked out what a spending spree a house purchase will launch. And you'll be adding both Stamp duty and VAT to the Exchequer.
I won't be buying a house for years, I should have said save not buy.
Boris Johnson is facing mounting anger from senior Conservative MPs after announcing new lockdown restrictions for Christmas which may have to remain in place for months to combat a new strain of coronavirus.
The PM has been accused of deliberately delaying a decision to place millions of people in London and the south-east under the new tier 4 measures to avoid scrutiny from angry backbench Tory MPs.
The government has been aware of a new strain of the disease since September but resisted pleas from scientists and doctors for further lockdown measures until six days before Christmas.
Sir Charles Walker, the vice-chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, said he believed ministers knew before Friday that they would be cancelling Christmas. “I suspect the government knew they were going to cancel Christmas on Wednesday and Thursday when they were still telling the House of Commons they planned to press ahead,” he told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend.
Another backbencher told the Guardian that MPs using a WhatsApp group were “seething” at the prime minister’s last-minute decision which has left thousands of people’s plans in chaos. “This is a failure of leadership for which we may never be forgiven. Many people were blaming previous cock-ups on Dominic Cummings. Now, it is all on the PM,” the MP said.
He was comparing the t4 lockdown to being in solitary confinement in an Egyptian prison. Like, I get that that is his claim to fame, and I’ll still give him the time of day when he discusses islamism etc, but seriously?!
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
Not to mention one of Mrs Thatcher's magic money trees, North Sea Oil.
Yes Thatcher squandered Scotland's money to prop up unemployment and rebuild London. Short memories of who funded it all.
These Covid numbers do look scary (!) now. So much riding on the vaccine rollout. Fingers and all else crossed.
On a lighter note, it’s SPOTY tonight and I’m looking forward to it. I’m pleased Ronnie O’Sullivan is at long last nominated. Unlikely to win but I really hope he makes the frame.
45 years old, he’s been entertaining us on the baize for nigh on 30 years. He’s a sporting genius of the sort that comes along once in a blue moon. Watching him in full flow is food for the soul. Snooker as art form and therapy. It feels elevated and goes beyond the facts and figures of humdrum sporting excellence, as evidenced by titles and world rankings, although he ticks that box too. Holds most of the records, including one you know for a fact will never be broken even if snooker is played right up to and including the heat death of the universe. I refer of course to his 147 maximum break in 5 minutes 20 seconds at the Crucible in 1997. The fastest ever. I’m sure everybody has seen it at least once.
He scores on the “P” aspect too imo. He can come over as a dick – often does – but he is a genuinely interesting and original person to listen to. The self-absorption is not of the malign variety and his mental health issues, which he talks of, perhaps arising from his family background, make his achievements all the greater.
Boris Johnson is facing mounting anger from senior Conservative MPs after announcing new lockdown restrictions for Christmas which may have to remain in place for months to combat a new strain of coronavirus.
The PM has been accused of deliberately delaying a decision to place millions of people in London and the south-east under the new tier 4 measures to avoid scrutiny from angry backbench Tory MPs.
The government has been aware of a new strain of the disease since September but resisted pleas from scientists and doctors for further lockdown measures until six days before Christmas.
Sir Charles Walker, the vice-chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, said he believed ministers knew before Friday that they would be cancelling Christmas. “I suspect the government knew they were going to cancel Christmas on Wednesday and Thursday when they were still telling the House of Commons they planned to press ahead,” he told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend.
Another backbencher told the Guardian that MPs using a WhatsApp group were “seething” at the prime minister’s last-minute decision which has left thousands of people’s plans in chaos. “This is a failure of leadership for which we may never be forgiven. Many people were blaming previous cock-ups on Dominic Cummings. Now, it is all on the PM,” the MP said.
Sometimes there's a very good reason why backbenchers are backbenchers...
No Rishi you can sod off thanks, I'm going to use it to buy a house since your useless Government won't help
LOLs, CHB. If this is your first house-buying venture, I guess you haven't worked out what a spending spree a house purchase will launch. And you'll be adding both Stamp duty and VAT to the Exchequer.
Surveyor's fees, mortgage fee, estate agent's fee generated from the seller, Pickfords or some such movers. Plenty of money for Rishi when you buy a house !
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
That's an insult to ten year olds
I thought it was more akin to bullying. But what do I know.
Bullying is tolerated around here now, as we have learned.
I think Rob might have missed Ian's point on the ten year old bit; ie that for Boris to have been the second or third best PM in his life, Phil couldn't be more than 10. You were just throwing an insult around, whether or not you spotted Ian's joke.
I didn't spot Ian's joke no, very smart now you've pointed it out.
He was comparing the t4 lockdown to being in solitary confinement in an Egyptian prison. Like, I get that that is his claim to fame, and I’ll still give him the time of day when he discusses islamism etc, but seriously?!
That's absurd. You can still go to work, and to get groceries etc. In some places you had to get permits to go outside, and you only had a limited number per week.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
It was the only logically consistent conclusion from his statement that the clown is the third best PM of his lifetime, as our SO quickly identified.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
It was the only logically consistent conclusion from his statement that the clown is the third best PM of his lifetime, as our SO quickly identified.
He was imprudent enough to reveal his age here recently. I will not be cad enough to repeat it but he certainly was not around to suffer an alcoholic Churchill nor the humiliation of Eden over Suez.
Boris Johnson is facing mounting anger from senior Conservative MPs after announcing new lockdown restrictions for Christmas which may have to remain in place for months to combat a new strain of coronavirus.
The PM has been accused of deliberately delaying a decision to place millions of people in London and the south-east under the new tier 4 measures to avoid scrutiny from angry backbench Tory MPs.
The government has been aware of a new strain of the disease since September but resisted pleas from scientists and doctors for further lockdown measures until six days before Christmas.
Sir Charles Walker, the vice-chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, said he believed ministers knew before Friday that they would be cancelling Christmas. “I suspect the government knew they were going to cancel Christmas on Wednesday and Thursday when they were still telling the House of Commons they planned to press ahead,” he told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend.
Another backbencher told the Guardian that MPs using a WhatsApp group were “seething” at the prime minister’s last-minute decision which has left thousands of people’s plans in chaos. “This is a failure of leadership for which we may never be forgiven. Many people were blaming previous cock-ups on Dominic Cummings. Now, it is all on the PM,” the MP said.
Makes me respect boris just a little bit more for outwitting the idiots on his own backbenches
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
I hope that too. But even if I'm dead I'll be watching, and still posting if necessary, e.g. where there is jingoism or facetious reactionary mocking that needs to be called out.
The Woking Dead?
Grrr - if original that is irritatingly close to brilliant.
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
It was the only logically consistent conclusion from his statement that the clown is the third best PM of his lifetime, as our SO quickly identified.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
It was the only logically consistent conclusion from his statement that the clown is the third best PM of his lifetime, as our SO quickly identified.
He was imprudent enough to reveal his age here recently. I will not be cad enough to repeat it but he certainly was not around to suffer an alcoholic Churchill nor the humiliation of Eden over Suez.
Boris Johnson is facing mounting anger from senior Conservative MPs after announcing new lockdown restrictions for Christmas which may have to remain in place for months to combat a new strain of coronavirus.
The PM has been accused of deliberately delaying a decision to place millions of people in London and the south-east under the new tier 4 measures to avoid scrutiny from angry backbench Tory MPs.
The government has been aware of a new strain of the disease since September but resisted pleas from scientists and doctors for further lockdown measures until six days before Christmas.
Sir Charles Walker, the vice-chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, said he believed ministers knew before Friday that they would be cancelling Christmas. “I suspect the government knew they were going to cancel Christmas on Wednesday and Thursday when they were still telling the House of Commons they planned to press ahead,” he told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend.
Another backbencher told the Guardian that MPs using a WhatsApp group were “seething” at the prime minister’s last-minute decision which has left thousands of people’s plans in chaos. “This is a failure of leadership for which we may never be forgiven. Many people were blaming previous cock-ups on Dominic Cummings. Now, it is all on the PM,” the MP said.
Makes me respect boris just a little bit more for outwitting the idiots on his own backbenches
Numbers looks like a complete disaster zone in London, SE and East. Not long until it spreads to the rest of the country. The government needs to answer serious questions about how they will handle this and speeding up the vaccine.
Numbers looks like a complete disaster zone in London, SE and East. Not long until it spreads to the rest of the country. The government needs to answer serious questions about how they will handle this and speeding up the vaccine.
The only solution is a proper lockdown, evidently the Tiers have failed.
Numbers looks like a complete disaster zone in London, SE and East. Not long until it spreads to the rest of the country. The government needs to answer serious questions about how they will handle this and speeding up the vaccine.
The only solution is a proper lockdown, evidently the Tiers have failed.
Yes this new strain means a new strategy. Though I would maintain that lockdown isn't a solution, it's still just a sticking plaster. The solution is a vaccine or failing that a properly functioning isolation system. Neither of which Labour are scrutinising properly.
I'd really like to check whether Rentoul has been cribbing from PB, Alistair Meekes and/or myself, but the full article is behind a paywall. Would it be possible for someone to send me a copy?
Particularly, did Rentoul allude to any money laundering aspects?
Betfair lets people back horses that have fallen, and died, to win the race, & players that have been substituted to score the first goal in football matches. Those things actually cannot happen. Trump could have still been President, albeit he shouldn't be paid as a winner as per Betfair's rules, so wrong as this seems/is, it is not as bad as things that have been going on in Betfair markets for years
I'd really like to check whether Rentoul has been cribbing from PB, Alistair Meekes and/or myself, but the full article is behind a paywall. Would it be possible for someone to send me a copy?
Particularly, did Rentoul allude to any money laundering aspects?
Betfair lets people back horses that have fallen, and died, to win the race, & players that have been substituted to score the first goal in football matches. Those things actually cannot happen. Trump could have still been President, albeit he shouldn't be paid as a winner as per Betfair's rules, so wrong as this seems/is, it is not as bad as things that have been going on in Betfair markets for years
Isn't the time frame relevant here, Isam? We are talking some five weeks or so in the case of the so-called Next President market. In that time Betfair received a huge volume of queries and complaints to which their response was a couple of confusing and badly worded PR statements. Not sure your football and horseracing comparisons quite match that.
Also, they do not change the rules after the event in those sports, or any other that I know of. It was the moving of the goalposts that was at the heart of most of the criticism.
I would have been fine if Betfair had made it clear when they were going settle. Ideally making it clear before the election, but if post election they had said something like: “unusually, one candidate hasn’t conceded. We’ll therefore be settling it on 2nd December when the ECV are in” I’d have been ok with that.
My problem was that I was heavily green on Betfair, but red on Spin. I’d have been heavily down if the Betfair market had been voided but Spin settled.
You weren't the only one with that problem.
Of course Betfair could have done as you indicated but that would have been to admit an error and that doesn't seem to be in their DNA.
Did you complain, formally? Did you try IBAS or the Gambling Commission?
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
I can't imagine many of the disgruntled Left moving to Ed Davey's LDs. The other types, perhaps.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
It was the only logically consistent conclusion from his statement that the clown is the third best PM of his lifetime, as our SO quickly identified.
» show previous quotes I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
Yet still 55% of Scots did not vote SNP at the general election last year
That's one bar the UK Tories can beat, with 56.4%
Not in England.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
They got a grown up. Look what we got.
The second or third best PM this country has had in my lifetime.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
I doubt even you believe the rubbish you are spouting. Nobody else does, that's for sure
Credit where it’s due, he sure knows some long words for a ten year old.
Is this the new thing now then, referring to Philip as the ten year old?
It was the only logically consistent conclusion from his statement that the clown is the third best PM of his lifetime, as our SO quickly identified.
He was imprudent enough to reveal his age here recently. I will not be cad enough to repeat it but he certainly was not around to suffer an alcoholic Churchill nor the humiliation of Eden over Suez.
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
I can't imagine many of the disgruntled Left moving to Ed Davey's LDs. The other types, perhaps.
It’s a function of not being in the nrws he can’t be blamed and therefore could provide an untainted solution, not a policy thing, just lie low
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
While I feel that a deal is more likely than not there is a part of me that would enjoy no deal just to see you eating some humble pie.
I wonder if the Germans have a word for that too?
I bet they do. But tbf there's a part of you - the Redwood part - that would in any case enjoy this particular Not Happening Event happening regardless of its undoubtedly devastating impact on my cred. NO DEAL = PROPER LEAVE. If I were a Brexit Headbanger it's what I would want.
I am not a Brexit Headbanger.
If anything I am a Democracy Headbanger.
Democracy must be respected even if, perhaps especially if, the people vote for what you consider to be the Wrong Thing (TM).
In 2016 had we voted to Remain then I would have been OK with that. We did not though. We voted to Take Back Control of our laws and sovereignty and I want that respected.
There are many of us who support Brexit because it was democratically voted for but who reject the absurdities of the ERG
If 52% of the public had voted for a nazi party would you have just gone along with it?
The fact that a majority support something does not place an obligation on those who oppose it on principle to simply fall into line. If you believe Brexit is a monumental error why on earth would you accept it because 52% voted for it?
As it's the highest ever total, I am going to guess yes.
For deaths i meant
Ah, sorry. I think it is also likely the highest, although not highest day on record. Anyway, deaths will be lagging quite a bit behind, so we won't see this surge for a few weeks yet.
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
For me Davey is saying all the right things and the handful of LD MPs are very active in parliament. Its just difficult to get heard when you have been reduced to a rump.
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
I can't imagine many of the disgruntled Left moving to Ed Davey's LDs. The other types, perhaps.
You wouldn't think so, would you, but in my experience the LD's still have a small residual anti-establishment vote even after the coalition. The sort of people who wouldn't be happy if Starmer waves through the government's new, very anti-liberal proposals to let the security services commit almost any sort of crime, for instance. What a far cry that is from the sort of "anti- big state authoritarianism" the Tories briefly professed to believe in in the New Labour ID cards era.
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
OGH is perhaps the greatest LD force left. Good sense being the other one.
The LDs main problem is that they are so far left economically.
I'd really like to check whether Rentoul has been cribbing from PB, Alistair Meekes and/or myself, but the full article is behind a paywall. Would it be possible for someone to send me a copy?
Particularly, did Rentoul allude to any money laundering aspects?
Betfair lets people back horses that have fallen, and died, to win the race, & players that have been substituted to score the first goal in football matches. Those things actually cannot happen. Trump could have still been President, albeit he shouldn't be paid as a winner as per Betfair's rules, so wrong as this seems/is, it is not as bad as things that have been going on in Betfair markets for years
I'd really like to check whether Rentoul has been cribbing from PB, Alistair Meekes and/or myself, but the full article is behind a paywall. Would it be possible for someone to send me a copy?
Particularly, did Rentoul allude to any money laundering aspects?
Betfair lets people back horses that have fallen, and died, to win the race, & players that have been substituted to score the first goal in football matches. Those things actually cannot happen. Trump could have still been President, albeit he shouldn't be paid as a winner as per Betfair's rules, so wrong as this seems/is, it is not as bad as things that have been going on in Betfair markets for years
Isn't the time frame relevant here, Isam? We are talking some five weeks or so in the case of the so-called Next President market. In that time Betfair received a huge volume of queries and complaints to which their response was a couple of confusing and badly worded PR statements. Not sure your football and horseracing comparisons quite match that.
Also, they do not change the rules after the event in those sports, or any other that I know of. It was the moving of the goalposts that was at the heart of most of the criticism.
I would have been fine if Betfair had made it clear when they were going settle. Ideally making it clear before the election, but if post election they had said something like: “unusually, one candidate hasn’t conceded. We’ll therefore be settling it on 2nd December when the ECV are in” I’d have been ok with that.
My problem was that I was heavily green on Betfair, but red on Spin. I’d have been heavily down if the Betfair market had been voided but Spin settled.
You weren't the only one with that problem.
Of course Betfair could have done as you indicated but that would have been to admit an error and that doesn't seem to be in their DNA.
Did you complain, formally? Did you try IBAS or the Gambling Commission?
No but I will. It’s on my list of things to do over Christmas.
Numbers looks like a complete disaster zone in London, SE and East. Not long until it spreads to the rest of the country. The government needs to answer serious questions about how they will handle this and speeding up the vaccine.
The only solution is a proper lockdown, evidently the Tiers have failed.
Scotland, Wales and NI seem to have understood this. It is to the immense discredit of the Westminster government that they have not.
Done a bit more digging on the London variant of COVID. There is a mutation in the spike protein but I am not sure where in the protein it is and whether it is a purely genotype change or a phenotype change (i.e. one that changes the amino acid sequence in the protein)
As yet, a correlation with greater transmissibility has been established, but this is not the same as causality, as stated in this BMJ article:
"Does this variant spread more quickly? "Matt Hancock told the House of Commons on 14 December that initial analysis showed that the new variant “may be associated” with the recent rise in cases in southeast England. However, this is not the same as saying that it is causing the rise.
"Loman explained, “This variant is strongly associated with where we are seeing increasing rates of covid-19. It’s a correlation, but we can’t say it is causation. But there is striking growth in this variant, which is why we are worried, and it needs urgent follow-up and investigation.”"
Comments
"Boris unwraps the turkey!"
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1340689930264203266?s=20
No Rishi you can sod off thanks, I'm going to use it to buy a house since your useless Government won't help
Spurs seem to be losing their sparkle
I thought it was funny that Bale's highlight was when he had to retie his pony tail
https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1340689930264203266?s=20
I'm saying that if they were saying the value could add 0.4 to R they could easily have qualified that with "at least" or "and it could be even higher" and not misrepresent the NERVTAG minutes.
Mine and Foxy's were more for the Mirror.
Another boring poll.
Both parties consistently in the 30s now
The PM has been accused of deliberately delaying a decision to place millions of people in London and the south-east under the new tier 4 measures to avoid scrutiny from angry backbench Tory MPs.
The government has been aware of a new strain of the disease since September but resisted pleas from scientists and doctors for further lockdown measures until six days before Christmas.
Sir Charles Walker, the vice-chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, said he believed ministers knew before Friday that they would be cancelling Christmas. “I suspect the government knew they were going to cancel Christmas on Wednesday and Thursday when they were still telling the House of Commons they planned to press ahead,” he told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend.
Another backbencher told the Guardian that MPs using a WhatsApp group were “seething” at the prime minister’s last-minute decision which has left thousands of people’s plans in chaos. “This is a failure of leadership for which we may never be forgiven. Many people were blaming previous cock-ups on Dominic Cummings. Now, it is all on the PM,” the MP said.
The rest of Europe should make the most of any head start they might have and do likewise.
And all close our borders to South Africa too.
I just listened to Maajid Nawaz’s LBC show
He was comparing the t4 lockdown to being in solitary confinement in an Egyptian prison. Like, I get that that is his claim to fame, and I’ll still give him the time of day when he discusses islamism etc, but seriously?!
On a lighter note, it’s SPOTY tonight and I’m looking forward to it. I’m pleased Ronnie O’Sullivan is at long last nominated. Unlikely to win but I really hope he makes the frame.
45 years old, he’s been entertaining us on the baize for nigh on 30 years. He’s a sporting genius of the sort that comes along once in a blue moon. Watching him in full flow is food for the soul. Snooker as art form and therapy. It feels elevated and goes beyond the facts and figures of humdrum sporting excellence, as evidenced by titles and world rankings, although he ticks that box too. Holds most of the records, including one you know for a fact will never be broken even if snooker is played right up to and including the heat death of the universe. I refer of course to his 147 maximum break in 5 minutes 20 seconds at the Crucible in 1997. The fastest ever. I’m sure everybody has seen it at least once.
He scores on the “P” aspect too imo. He can come over as a dick – often does – but he is a genuinely interesting and original person to listen to. The self-absorption is not of the malign variety and his mental health issues, which he talks of, perhaps arising from his family background, make his achievements all the greater.
C’mon Ronnie!
Plenty of money for Rishi when you buy a house !
Not so boring for the LDs.
A new suit, a tie, and Smithson brushes up well.
Time Mike introduced an age limit on the Site.
*wherever here is
Lib Dem surge then!
https://twitter.com/pitchblacksteed/status/1340639016744579072/photo/1
"Discussions continue, but significant differences persist"
Repeat daily until Dec 31st.
Lots of people, will vote for the most Progressive party at a GE
Its by no means certain on the current path that will be LAB.
Of course Betfair could have done as you indicated but that would have been to admit an error and that doesn't seem to be in their DNA.
Did you complain, formally? Did you try IBAS or the Gambling Commission?
The fact that a majority support something does not place an obligation on those who oppose it on principle to simply fall into line. If you believe Brexit is a monumental error why on earth would you accept it because 52% voted for it?
Hopefully there will be clear skies tomorrow.
The LDs main problem is that they are so far left economically.
Once upon a time there was this Deal that was oven ready.
And everybody thought good I am voting for that cute little oven ready deal (ORD).
Then the nasty EU Giant put obstacles in the way of the poor ORD
Its owner in order to protect it threatened to send Naval Boats to protect ORDs friends the herrings
Oh you are asleep goodnight sleep tight
As yet, a correlation with greater transmissibility has been established, but this is not the same as causality, as stated in this BMJ article:
"Does this variant spread more quickly?
"Matt Hancock told the House of Commons on 14 December that initial analysis showed that the new variant “may be associated” with the recent rise in cases in southeast England. However, this is not the same as saying that it is causing the rise.
"Loman explained, “This variant is strongly associated with where we are seeing increasing rates of covid-19. It’s a correlation, but we can’t say it is causation. But there is striking growth in this variant, which is why we are worried, and it needs urgent follow-up and investigation.”"
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857