I'd really like to check whether Rentoul has been cribbing from PB, Alistair Meekes and/or myself, but the full article is behind a paywall. Would it be possible for someone to send me a copy?
Particularly, did Rentoul allude to any money laundering aspects?
Betfair lets people back horses that have fallen, and died, to win the race, & players that have been substituted to score the first goal in football matches. Those things actually cannot happen. Trump could have still been President, albeit he shouldn't be paid as a winner as per Betfair's rules, so wrong as this seems/is, it is not as bad as things that have been going on in Betfair markets for years
That's a point. This was a MASSIVE high profile market though. Over a billion.
Anyway, I welcome you back with a bespoke tailored song recommendation. Living with War by Neil Young.
I bought Neil Young's Harvest album about a decade ago after reading a review, thinking I would really like it, and was very disappointed. His voice was so whiny! Doesn't sound the same on that song you recommended
"Surf's Up" by the Beach Boys is my recommendation in return. Interesting story behind the making of the song, clever title re the Beach Boys early 60s image, and a fascinating song too
Look up @AdamMBarret on twitter, he does some great acoustic versions of songs. Brian Wlson retweeted his "God Only Knows", what a buzz for him! I retweeted his "Nowhere Fast" by The Smiths (whiny voice that I dont dislike), less of a buzz but every little helps
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.
As it's the highest ever total, I am going to guess yes.
For deaths i meant
Ah, sorry. I think it is also likely the highest, although not highest day on record. Anyway, deaths will be lagging quite a bit behind, so we won't see this surge for a few weeks yet.
I know lets hope its not as bad as we think
Very pleased that all four of my over 90s relatives have now had their 1st jabs and are lined up for their boosters on 8th 9th and 10th of Jan.
Numbers looks like a complete disaster zone in London, SE and East. Not long until it spreads to the rest of the country. The government needs to answer serious questions about how they will handle this and speeding up the vaccine.
A good start would be not letting people pile onto trains north...
Mr. Rentool, if it's a Boris Johnson/Keir Starmer election I'm not voting for the incumbent. Would probably vote independent.
Voting for a moron to defeat an extremist is one thing. Starmer's tedious and has drawbacks (the pathetic kneeling, and the vague utterances on English devolution sound displeasing though detail is currently lacking) but I must admit I find refreshing his capacity to think more than three minutes into the future and answer the tough questions like "How many children do you have?"
I don't think this is actually happening (though I can't be entirely sure), but would it be immoral for the government to have inflated today's numbers to scare people into following the rules?
I'd really like to check whether Rentoul has been cribbing from PB, Alistair Meekes and/or myself, but the full article is behind a paywall. Would it be possible for someone to send me a copy?
Particularly, did Rentoul allude to any money laundering aspects?
Betfair lets people back horses that have fallen, and died, to win the race, & players that have been substituted to score the first goal in football matches. Those things actually cannot happen. Trump could have still been President, albeit he shouldn't be paid as a winner as per Betfair's rules, so wrong as this seems/is, it is not as bad as things that have been going on in Betfair markets for years
That's a point. This was a MASSIVE high profile market though. Over a billion.
Anyway, I welcome you back with a bespoke tailored song recommendation. Living with War by Neil Young.
I bought Neil Young's Harvest album about a decade ago after reading a review, thinking I would really like it, and was very disappointed. His voice was so whiny! Doesn't sound the same on that song you recommended
"Surf's Up" by the Beach Boys is my recommendation in return. Interesting story behind the making of the song, clever title re the Beach Boys early 60s image, and a fascinating song too
Look up @AdamMBarret on twitter, he does some great acoustic versions of songs. Brian Wlson retweeted his "God Only Knows", what a buzz for him! I retweeted his "Nowhere Fast" by The Smiths (whiny voice that I dont dislike), less of a buzz but every little helps
I thought "Harvest" was going to be like Paul Weller's "Wild Wood" which is probably my all time favourite album
Numbers looks like a complete disaster zone in London, SE and East. Not long until it spreads to the rest of the country. The government needs to answer serious questions about how they will handle this and speeding up the vaccine.
A good start would be not letting people pile onto trains north...
As CHB said, genuinely insane decision not to cancel the trains and deploy the BTP before the announcement. They must have known this would happen...
Numbers looks like a complete disaster zone in London, SE and East. Not long until it spreads to the rest of the country. The government needs to answer serious questions about how they will handle this and speeding up the vaccine.
The only solution is a proper lockdown, evidently the Tiers have failed.
In practice, is there any real difference between Tier 4 and lockdown, now that schools have finished?
Mr. Rentool, if it's a Boris Johnson/Keir Starmer election I'm not voting for the incumbent. Would probably vote independent.
Voting for a moron to defeat an extremist is one thing. Starmer's tedious and has drawbacks (the pathetic kneeling, and the vague utterances on English devolution sound displeasing though detail is currently lacking) but I must admit I find refreshing his capacity to think more than three minutes into the future and answer the tough questions like "How many children do you have?"
You can have fun choosing a candidate to vote for in the West Yorkshire mayoral election. The Yorkshire Party?
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
OGH is perhaps the greatest LD force left. Good sense being the other one.
The LDs main problem is that they are so far left economically.
According to the IFS in 2019 'their manifesto confirms that they are now the only major party committed to reduce the national debt as a fraction of national income, a goal now abandoned by both Labour and the Conservatives' so not sure if that holds true. Ed Davey was of course a Cabinet Minister in Cameron's government unlike Boris. https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/article/liberal-democrat-manifesto-an-initial-reaction-from-ifs
The LDs have also now overtaken the Tories as the main party of the rich in terms of the percentage of their support. According to Yougov in 2019 for example the LDs won 20% of those earning over £70,000 a year compared to 12% of UK voters overall, the Tories by contrast won 40% of the highest earners compared to 44% of voters overall and Labour won 31% of those on the highest incomes compared to 32% of voters overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#cite_note-348
Numbers looks like a complete disaster zone in London, SE and East. Not long until it spreads to the rest of the country. The government needs to answer serious questions about how they will handle this and speeding up the vaccine.
A good start would be not letting people pile onto trains north...
Numbers looks like a complete disaster zone in London, SE and East. Not long until it spreads to the rest of the country. The government needs to answer serious questions about how they will handle this and speeding up the vaccine.
The only solution is a proper lockdown, evidently the Tiers have failed.
In practice, is there any real difference between Tier 4 and lockdown, now that schools have finished?
Sorry if I missed a reply, but I don't think I got one when I asked the other day; does anyone know if we could have unilaterally declared our part of Dogger Bank a Marine Protected Area from within the EU? I've tried a bit of googling but can't find anything definitive.
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
It's mostly because very, very few people know he exists. But that also means people aren't registering him saying things that piss them off.
"You say it best when you say nothing at all....."
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
OGH is perhaps the greatest LD force left. Good sense being the other one.
The LDs main problem is that they are so far left economically.
The LDs have also now overtaken the Tories as the main party of the rich in terms of the percentage of their support. According to Yougov in 2019 for example the LDs won 20% of those earning over £70,000 a year compared to 12% of the UK overall, the Tories by contrast won 40% of the highest earners compared to 44% of voters overall and Labour won 31% of those on the highest incomes compared to 32% of voters overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#cite_note-348
Sorry if I missed a reply, but I don't think I got one when I asked the other day; does anyone know if we could have unilaterally declared our part of Dogger Bank a Marine Protected Area from within the EU? I've tried a bit of googling but can't find anything definitive.
Don't see why not. The Scots have designated a number, and not just close inshore.
A cynic (who? me?) would say tyhat the last thing Mr Johnson's regime wants to do is to use its sale of the rest of the UK's industrial birthright for a bowl of mackerel pottage to actually conserve British fish rather than let their Brexiter trawler owner chums clean out the lot.
It's worth saying that in the last lockdown London & the SE came out with more cases than they went into it with. I wonder how much of the rise in the latter half of it can be attributed to the new strain.
As a Labour man I think a Labour/LD Government would be excellent
In reality though the SNP not the LDs will be the main party Starmer has to convince to back him to become PM in the event of a hung parliament unless Labour has a major recovery in Scotland
As a Labour man I think a Labour/LD Government would be excellent
In reality though the SNP not the LDs will be the main party Starmer has to convince to back him to become PM in the event of a hung parliament unless Labour has a major recovery in Scotland
In practice Labout have not usually needed the Scottish vote in recent decades to become the party of the UK Gmt.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.
As a Labour man I think a Labour/LD Government would be excellent
That would certainly be better than this glorious clusterfuck. We might even get a sane voting system out of it.
OTOH one cannot but recall how they (Dewar and Wallace?) concocted the gerrymandered D'Hondt system in the Scottish Pmt precisely to keep the SNP down. And look how that works out.
Lib Dems would actually gain a seat according to Electoral Calculus
On the latest poll the LDs would gain 5 seats from the Tories, Carshalton and Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Wimbledon and Winchester but they would lose some Scottish seats to the SNP
As a Labour man I think a Labour/LD Government would be excellent
In reality though the SNP not the LDs will be the main party Starmer has to convince to back him to become PM in the event of a hung parliament unless Labour has a major recovery in Scotland
In practice Labout have not usually needed the Scottish vote in recent decades to become the party of the UK Gmt.
They did in 1950, 1964 and February 1974 and the Scottish vote prevented Tory majorities in 2010 and 2017
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.
What is conclusive is that the UK grew faster than more integrated Eurozone nations but slower than non-EU developed Western nations.
For all those who say "if governments didn't impose stupid restrictions, the economy would be doing ok," can I present to you the current state of Vegas hotel rooms:
As a Labour man I think a Labour/LD Government would be excellent
In reality though the SNP not the LDs will be the main party Starmer has to convince to back him to become PM in the event of a hung parliament unless Labour has a major recovery in Scotland
In practice Labout have not usually needed the Scottish vote in recent decades to become the party of the UK Gmt.
They did in 1950, 1964 and February 1974 and the Scottish vote prevented Tory majorities in 2010 and 2017
We seem to be doing fuck all Pillar 2 tests in Scotland.
On the 10th Of December (day randomly selected by me) of UK wide pillar 2 tests only 4.4 were done in Scotland.
If pillar 2 is the regular testing of frontline workers that was moved into NHS Scotland around the time that the testing service was having issues back in September. Any residual numbers are likely people who live in Cumbria and Northumberland but work in the Borders (or vice versa).
Sorry if I missed a reply, but I don't think I got one when I asked the other day; does anyone know if we could have unilaterally declared our part of Dogger Bank a Marine Protected Area from within the EU? I've tried a bit of googling but can't find anything definitive.
Don't see why not. The Scots have designated a number, and not just close inshore.
A cynic (who? me?) would say tyhat the last thing Mr Johnson's regime wants to do is to use its sale of the rest of the UK's industrial birthright for a bowl of mackerel pottage to actually conserve British fish rather than let their Brexiter trawler owner chums clean out the lot.
There are loads of existing MPAs, including plenty of english ones too. I think the Danes want to carry on dredging Dogger Bank for sand eels and we want to stop it to protect birds, but the EU are using it as a kind of bargaining chip in negotiations. If we could have stopped this fishing for fertiliser in the EU then they really shouldn't be doing that.
The death numbers are at least 10% higher than the hospitalisations ten days earlier would suggest.
That could be pointing to the health service starting to collapse.
I don't think we are at that point yet, though my Trust does have more Covid-19 patients than the first wave peak. Undeniably under a lot of strain though, my Trust has been on level 5 for a week.
Numbers looks like a complete disaster zone in London, SE and East. Not long until it spreads to the rest of the country. The government needs to answer serious questions about how they will handle this and speeding up the vaccine.
The only solution is a proper lockdown, evidently the Tiers have failed.
In practice, is there any real difference between Tier 4 and lockdown, now that schools have finished?
Communal worship in Tier 4.
Somebody must have sat Boris down in the Comfy Chair......
Sorry if I missed a reply, but I don't think I got one when I asked the other day; does anyone know if we could have unilaterally declared our part of Dogger Bank a Marine Protected Area from within the EU? I've tried a bit of googling but can't find anything definitive.
Don't see why not. The Scots have designated a number, and not just close inshore.
A cynic (who? me?) would say tyhat the last thing Mr Johnson's regime wants to do is to use its sale of the rest of the UK's industrial birthright for a bowl of mackerel pottage to actually conserve British fish rather than let their Brexiter trawler owner chums clean out the lot.
There are loads of existing MPAs, including plenty of english ones too. I think the Danes want to carry on dredging Dogger Bank for sand eels and we want to stop it to protect birds, but the EU are using it as a kind of bargaining chip in negotiations. If we could have stopped this fishing for fertiliser in the EU then they really shouldn't be doing that.
Quite, but if the Scots can ... I can only conjecture that it is a matter of the English Gmt not really wanting to but pretending, or it is because it's one of the mediaeval etc traditional fishing grounds. But someone said earlier on PB that had been extirpated when the CFP came in?
On this new strain - one worrying thing in the NERVTAG minutes is that they don't know whether lateral flow tests can detect it. That could bust the mass-testing strategy.
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
OGH is perhaps the greatest LD force left. Good sense being the other one.
The LDs main problem is that they are so far left economically.
According to the IFS in 2019 'their manifesto confirms that they are now the only major party committed to reduce the national debt as a fraction of national income, a goal now abandoned by both Labour and the Conservatives' so not sure if that holds true. Ed Davey was of course a Cabinet Minister in Cameron's government unlike Boris. https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/article/liberal-democrat-manifesto-an-initial-reaction-from-ifs
The LDs have also now overtaken the Tories as the main party of the rich in terms of the percentage of their support. According to Yougov in 2019 for example the LDs won 20% of those earning over £70,000 a year compared to 12% of UK voters overall, the Tories by contrast won 40% of the highest earners compared to 44% of voters overall and Labour won 31% of those on the highest incomes compared to 32% of voters overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#cite_note-348
More statistical illiteracy from you in that last paragraph.
For all those who say "if governments didn't impose stupid restrictions, the economy would be doing ok," can I present to you the current state of Vegas hotel rooms:
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.
What is conclusive is that the UK grew faster than more integrated Eurozone nations but slower than non-EU developed Western nations.
So what do you conclude from that?
It depends on the comparator country. We have outperformed some developed Non EU economies (notably Japan in recent years) but less well than ones that produce primary products such as Canada and Australia, or who dominate in software like the USA.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.
Given how long we were in the EEC before Thatcher came to power with no signs of any improvement in our economy what is clear is that it was the massive Thatcher reforms of our sclerotic economy that made the difference. It is those changes which have benefitted Governments since then, not our membership of the EEC/EU
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
While I feel that a deal is more likely than not there is a part of me that would enjoy no deal just to see you eating some humble pie.
I wonder if the Germans have a word for that too?
I bet they do. But tbf there's a part of you - the Redwood part - that would in any case enjoy this particular Not Happening Event happening regardless of its undoubtedly devastating impact on my cred. NO DEAL = PROPER LEAVE. If I were a Brexit Headbanger it's what I would want.
I am not a Brexit Headbanger.
If anything I am a Democracy Headbanger.
Democracy must be respected even if, perhaps especially if, the people vote for what you consider to be the Wrong Thing (TM).
In 2016 had we voted to Remain then I would have been OK with that. We did not though. We voted to Take Back Control of our laws and sovereignty and I want that respected.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
I read a report this morning that 15,000 avoudable deaths within the EU will come about as a result of the delay in the vaccine
In hindsight UK government looks good to have bitten the bullet with fast tracking . Or is it related though to throwing cash at stocks? How much has it cost economy to throw so much money at vaccine buying?
I do not know but it must a lot
I agree with you Big G. I’m still not saying our government done the wrong thing, but eye watering sums of money to middlemen to jump a q may look bad in several ways, once the satisfaction of getting vaccinated before EU wears off, the eye watering sums just to shady middlemen will be compared to the cost of free school meals for example and give impression of not good use of tax payers money?
Personally I don’t think UK government have boosted the anti vaccine contingent by cutting corners, so its EU who have made the mistake, but all the wealthy countries of the world use their wealth to leave the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worlds behind in getting hands on vaccine might not show up well in the long run? Suppose that is wether our mind set is in “look after your own” or “lend a hand to everyone” and Brexit Global Britain is definitely the former and we will all have to get used to this mindset?
We can and will lend a hand to everyone but in case of emergency always put your own oxygen mask on first before helping others.
We are leading the world in supporting supply of covid vaccines to the lesser developed countries
Sorry if I missed a reply, but I don't think I got one when I asked the other day; does anyone know if we could have unilaterally declared our part of Dogger Bank a Marine Protected Area from within the EU? I've tried a bit of googling but can't find anything definitive.
Don't see why not. The Scots have designated a number, and not just close inshore.
A cynic (who? me?) would say tyhat the last thing Mr Johnson's regime wants to do is to use its sale of the rest of the UK's industrial birthright for a bowl of mackerel pottage to actually conserve British fish rather than let their Brexiter trawler owner chums clean out the lot.
There are loads of existing MPAs, including plenty of english ones too. I think the Danes want to carry on dredging Dogger Bank for sand eels and we want to stop it to protect birds, but the EU are using it as a kind of bargaining chip in negotiations. If we could have stopped this fishing for fertiliser in the EU then they really shouldn't be doing that.
Quite, but if the Scots can ... I can only conjecture that it is a matter of the English Gmt not really wanting to but pretending, or it is because it's one of the mediaeval etc traditional fishing grounds. But someone said earlier on PB that had been extirpated when the CFP came in?
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.
Given how long we were in the EEC before Thatcher came to power with no signs of any improvement in our economy what is clear is that it was the massive Thatcher reforms of our sclerotic economy that made the difference. It is those changes which have benefitted Governments since then, not our membership of the EEC/EU
Though clearly membership did not hold back that economic sovereignty. EU membership and reducing barriers to the Single Market were a central plank in Thatchers economic policy.
The death numbers are at least 10% higher than the hospitalisations ten days earlier would suggest.
That could be pointing to the health service starting to collapse.
Or this latest variant actually being even more of a bastard to treat.....
That, at least, does not seem to be the case from the NERVTAG notes. However, more infections means more patients inevitably. Could also be reporting delays, more elderly people getting it and just good old variation causing that. I'd be wary of drawing such conclusions from one data point.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.
What is conclusive is that the UK grew faster than more integrated Eurozone nations but slower than non-EU developed Western nations.
So what do you conclude from that?
What non EU developed countries? I can think of 2 both of whom have unique circumstances (oil and money)
For all those who say "if governments didn't impose stupid restrictions, the economy would be doing ok," can I present to you the current state of Vegas hotel rooms:
It is a fair point but Vegas hotels don't make their money on the hotel rooms charges do they?
Better to get someone in at virtually free who then goes to the casino than to have an empty room.
Yes but I think the point is that to get anyone in at all they have to essentially give away the rooms. Which suggests even in anything goes Vegas no one want to go out.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.
What is conclusive is that the UK grew faster than more integrated Eurozone nations but slower than non-EU developed Western nations.
So what do you conclude from that?
What non EU developed countries? I can't think of many (any)...
Norway and Switzerland in Europe for example, though both in the Single Market of course.
For all those who say "if governments didn't impose stupid restrictions, the economy would be doing ok," can I present to you the current state of Vegas hotel rooms:
My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.
While I feel that a deal is more likely than not there is a part of me that would enjoy no deal just to see you eating some humble pie.
I wonder if the Germans have a word for that too?
I bet they do. But tbf there's a part of you - the Redwood part - that would in any case enjoy this particular Not Happening Event happening regardless of its undoubtedly devastating impact on my cred. NO DEAL = PROPER LEAVE. If I were a Brexit Headbanger it's what I would want.
I am not a Brexit Headbanger.
If anything I am a Democracy Headbanger.
Democracy must be respected even if, perhaps especially if, the people vote for what you consider to be the Wrong Thing (TM).
In 2016 had we voted to Remain then I would have been OK with that. We did not though. We voted to Take Back Control of our laws and sovereignty and I want that respected.
Given how long we were in the EEC before Thatcher came to power with no signs of any improvement in our economy what is clear is that it was the massive Thatcher reforms of our sclerotic economy that made the difference. It is those changes which have benefitted Governments since then, not our membership of the EEC/EU
We were in transition. Tariffs weren't phased out until shortly before Thatcher came to power.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
I read a report this morning that 15,000 avoudable deaths within the EU will come about as a result of the delay in the vaccine
In hindsight UK government looks good to have bitten the bullet with fast tracking . Or is it related though to throwing cash at stocks? How much has it cost economy to throw so much money at vaccine buying?
I do not know but it must a lot
I agree with you Big G. I’m still not saying our government done the wrong thing, but eye watering sums of money to middlemen to jump a q may look bad in several ways, once the satisfaction of getting vaccinated before EU wears off, the eye watering sums just to shady middlemen will be compared to the cost of free school meals for example and give impression of not good use of tax payers money?
Personally I don’t think UK government have boosted the anti vaccine contingent by cutting corners, so its EU who have made the mistake, but all the wealthy countries of the world use their wealth to leave the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worlds behind in getting hands on vaccine might not show up well in the long run? Suppose that is wether our mind set is in “look after your own” or “lend a hand to everyone” and Brexit Global Britain is definitely the former and we will all have to get used to this mindset?
We can and will lend a hand to everyone but in case of emergency always put your own oxygen mask on first before helping others.
It seems only Merkel has made a point about helping third world with vaccine, not our government. Our government instead slashed foreign aid as point of Global Britain’s new priorities. It chucked obscene amounts of money to get hands on vaccine first.
And we know why don’t we Phillip. Merkels Party, though right of centre, has the world Christian in its name. Meanwhile in UK there is no party influenced by Christian values.
Sounds like a good holiday season header imo, to ask what it means for future policy now no UK party is influenced by Christian values.
Your contention is utterly wrong
This was the second result of a simple google search
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?
Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.
Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.
And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.
So far better out than in, AR.
Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.
It will be interesting to see.
On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.
To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.
Why?
Given our endemic trade deficit the £/€ exchange rate was surely overvalued.
If the £/€ exchange rate goes south but the trade deficit closes then might that not be a good thing?
Just suggesting them as benchmarks, Philip. I recall the exchange rate dropped sharply after the referendum and the drop in credit-rating followed soon after.
I'm not saying these are definitive or that other circustances need not be considered, but they're not bad broad-brush indicators. I mean, if Brexit was such a great idea, why didn't they both move up?
Because moving up isn't necessarily a good thing was my point.
Yes, I can see there are circumstances where it might be smart to let an exchange rate drift down. I'm less sure about the credit rating, but you can correct me if you like.
I didn't however get the impression that either movement was an indication of clever economic forethought, but rather a sharp intake of breath from the international business community.
Well indeed in the short term there'll be more disruption, I don't think anyone reasonable disputes this.
In the medium to long term though it's a different matter.
One remarkable statistic is that despite all the protestations of doom about if the UK chose not to join the Euro, or chose to hold an EU referendum, or voted to Leave . . . Is that in both the 2000-2009 and 2010-2019 decades the UK grew faster than the Eurozone per capita.
An interest judgement as to how Brexit goes over the next decade will be to make the same comparison in a decades time. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK over the next decade grows faster again per capita than the Eurozone. If so then I think that it is safe to say the UK has done OK in Brexiting, what do you think?
Lol! In the long term, we are all dead, Philip, but I will rest easier in my grave knowing that my countrymen are enjoying the sunlit uplands which were promised them before the referendum.
I put a medium term measurement threshold as the end of this decade.
I appreciate that in my late thirties I'm younger than many other PBers but I really, really hope and expect that the overwhelming majority of PBers won't be dead by the end of this decade.
Edit: As well as noting that the LAST decade saw the UK grow faster than the Eurozone despite the Brexit referendum causing uncertainty here halfway through the decade.
So for the last decades we have outgrown our similarly developed European neighbours, whilst in the EU? While prior to EEC entry we did not for several decades, and that is a reason for leaving? 🤔
QTWAIN.
We did in recent decades while getting progressively more estranged and on the way out from Europe.
Prior to EEC entry was of course prior to Thatcher reforming this country. The UK ceased to be the sick man of Europe because of Thatcher not EEC membership.
QTWAIY then surely...
No because you're putting the cart before the horse.
We aren't leaving because we are growing. We are perhaps growing because we haven't gotten entangled within the sclerotic EU and became estranged instead.
The explanation is arguable, but the truth is we grew more slowly than comparable EU economies until we joined, then grew faster than them in recent decades,
So QTWAIY...😀
Did the UK start growing faster 1973-1979?
Or was it as I suggested Thatcher that turned things around?
Well it's easy to check. Considering the UK was the prior sick man we should have grown faster than Germany and France per capita from 73 to 79 as we caught up with them.
Spoiler: That did NOT happen. The UK grew slower than the original EEC members even post accession to the EEC.
I wasn't discussing the role of particular governments, after all we grew more slowly than our neighbours before accession under all governments, and more quickly after accession under both Labour and Conservative.
It took a little while and the end of transitional arrangements of accession for the economic benefits of membership to become manifest.
You miss Philip's very obvious point. The growth did not happen because of us being in the EEC. Indeed that made no difference. It started and continued because of Thatcher. The idea that membership of the EEC is what pulled us out of being the sick man of Europe is just another Eurofanatic myth.
While she was PM, Maggie was a Euro enthusiast, pushing through the Single Market. The economic growth of that period cannot be divorced from membership. Indeed it showed how sovereign economic policy fitted fine with membership.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.
Given how long we were in the EEC before Thatcher came to power with no signs of any improvement in our economy what is clear is that it was the massive Thatcher reforms of our sclerotic economy that made the difference. It is those changes which have benefitted Governments since then, not our membership of the EEC/EU
Though clearly membership did not hold back that economic sovereignty. EU membership and reducing barriers to the Single Market were a central plank in Thatchers economic policy.
Breaking the Unions and reforming our industrial and manufacturing bases were more important. Also worth noting that, bar a couple of months in the early 80s, the last time we had a balance of trade surplus with the EEC/EU was the year before we joined.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
I read a report this morning that 15,000 avoudable deaths within the EU will come about as a result of the delay in the vaccine
In hindsight UK government looks good to have bitten the bullet with fast tracking . Or is it related though to throwing cash at stocks? How much has it cost economy to throw so much money at vaccine buying?
I do not know but it must a lot
I agree with you Big G. I’m still not saying our government done the wrong thing, but eye watering sums of money to middlemen to jump a q may look bad in several ways, once the satisfaction of getting vaccinated before EU wears off, the eye watering sums just to shady middlemen will be compared to the cost of free school meals for example and give impression of not good use of tax payers money?
Personally I don’t think UK government have boosted the anti vaccine contingent by cutting corners, so its EU who have made the mistake, but all the wealthy countries of the world use their wealth to leave the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worlds behind in getting hands on vaccine might not show up well in the long run? Suppose that is wether our mind set is in “look after your own” or “lend a hand to everyone” and Brexit Global Britain is definitely the former and we will all have to get used to this mindset?
We can and will lend a hand to everyone but in case of emergency always put your own oxygen mask on first before helping others.
It seems only Merkel has made a point about helping third world with vaccine, not our government. Our government instead slashed foreign aid as point of Global Britain’s new priorities. It chucked obscene amounts of money to get hands on vaccine first.
And we know why don’t we Phillip. Merkels Party, though right of centre, has the world Christian in its name. Meanwhile in UK there is no party influenced by Christian values.
Sounds like a good holiday season header imo, to ask what it means for future policy now no UK party is influenced by Christian values.
Your contention is utterly wrong
This was the second result of a simple google search
For all that I think this government is an irredeemable shitshow, the contribution to GAVI is one of the achievements it should blow about more. Doesn't appeal to the red-faced base, but you might actually get some of the millions who didn't vote for you last time to hate you a bit less.
I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.
The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.
Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.
Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.
I read a report this morning that 15,000 avoudable deaths within the EU will come about as a result of the delay in the vaccine
In hindsight UK government looks good to have bitten the bullet with fast tracking . Or is it related though to throwing cash at stocks? How much has it cost economy to throw so much money at vaccine buying?
I do not know but it must a lot
I agree with you Big G. I’m still not saying our government done the wrong thing, but eye watering sums of money to middlemen to jump a q may look bad in several ways, once the satisfaction of getting vaccinated before EU wears off, the eye watering sums just to shady middlemen will be compared to the cost of free school meals for example and give impression of not good use of tax payers money?
Personally I don’t think UK government have boosted the anti vaccine contingent by cutting corners, so its EU who have made the mistake, but all the wealthy countries of the world use their wealth to leave the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worlds behind in getting hands on vaccine might not show up well in the long run? Suppose that is wether our mind set is in “look after your own” or “lend a hand to everyone” and Brexit Global Britain is definitely the former and we will all have to get used to this mindset?
We can and will lend a hand to everyone but in case of emergency always put your own oxygen mask on first before helping others.
It seems only Merkel has made a point about helping third world with vaccine, not our government. Our government instead slashed foreign aid as point of Global Britain’s new priorities. It chucked obscene amounts of money to get hands on vaccine first.
And we know why don’t we Phillip. Merkels Party, though right of centre, has the world Christian in its name. Meanwhile in UK there is no party influenced by Christian values.
Sounds like a good holiday season header imo, to ask what it means for future policy now no UK party is influenced by Christian values.
Your contention is utterly wrong
This was the second result of a simple google search
As with the Syrian refugee crisis where the UK contributed more money in aid than the whole of the rest of the EU put together, second only to that other apparent great evil in the world - the USA. .
I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.
As has happened all the way through the pandemic, look at Scotland and expect that to be done slightly later.
I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.
As has happened all the way through the pandemic, look at Scotland and expect that to be done slightly later.
The idea that Scotland has been a leading light on this is a fantasy beloved of nationalists.
I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.
As has happened all the way through the pandemic, look at Scotland and expect that to be done slightly later.
The idea that Scotland has been a leading light on this is a fantasy beloved of nationalists.
I think it's less Scotland leading and England following. Slowly.
To add further to the sense of misery, the effect of England's is now completely undone. It bought about five weeks altogether, much the same as Wales' firebreak did.
Wales with a slight downtick today. Growth had slowed down in the last couple of days as well, so hopefully it's not just a reporting issue.
Interesting. Maybe Davey's having a slightly better start than many of us thought. I wonder if that's some combination of angry remainers and Green/Left inclined Labour switchers.
OGH is perhaps the greatest LD force left. Good sense being the other one.
The LDs main problem is that they are so far left economically.
According to the IFS in 2019 'their manifesto confirms that they are now the only major party committed to reduce the national debt as a fraction of national income, a goal now abandoned by both Labour and the Conservatives' so not sure if that holds true. Ed Davey was of course a Cabinet Minister in Cameron's government unlike Boris. https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/article/liberal-democrat-manifesto-an-initial-reaction-from-ifs
The LDs have also now overtaken the Tories as the main party of the rich in terms of the percentage of their support. According to Yougov in 2019 for example the LDs won 20% of those earning over £70,000 a year compared to 12% of UK voters overall, the Tories by contrast won 40% of the highest earners compared to 44% of voters overall and Labour won 31% of those on the highest incomes compared to 32% of voters overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#cite_note-348
More statistical illiteracy from you in that last paragraph.
In 2015 by contrast 32% of Tory voters earned over £70,000 a year and only 29% of LD voters earned over £70,000 a year so there was no statistical illiteracy about it, the LDs have overtaken the Tories as the party of the rich in terms of their core support.
I fully expect a 6-week national lockdown (at least) to be announced on 30th December, including universities and secondary schools and possibly primaries and nurseries.
Plan accordingly.
As has happened all the way through the pandemic, look at Scotland and expect that to be done slightly later.
The idea that Scotland has been a leading light on this is a fantasy beloved of nationalists.
I think it's less Scotland leading and England following. Slowly.
Comments
That's England's cases plotted.
"Surf's Up" by the Beach Boys is my recommendation in return. Interesting story behind the making of the song, clever title re the Beach Boys early 60s image, and a fascinating song too
Look up @AdamMBarret on twitter, he does some great acoustic versions of songs. Brian Wlson retweeted his "God Only Knows", what a buzz for him! I retweeted his "Nowhere Fast" by The Smiths (whiny voice that I dont dislike), less of a buzz but every little helps
When you've cooled down to just 'it's bad' then do let me know what you think.
Boris is one of the very few that might be in charge. Might be because he might be capable of it.
Very pleased that all four of my over 90s relatives have now had their 1st jabs and are lined up for their boosters on 8th 9th and 10th of Jan.
BJO's free taxi doing a roaring trade
Voting for a moron to defeat an extremist is one thing. Starmer's tedious and has drawbacks (the pathetic kneeling, and the vague utterances on English devolution sound displeasing though detail is currently lacking) but I must admit I find refreshing his capacity to think more than three minutes into the future and answer the tough questions like "How many children do you have?"
https://www.tagesschau.de/
Corona Mutation in Great Britain: Germany to Restrict Tourist Travel
Warning from Great Britain: New Corona Variant "Out of Control"
https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/article/liberal-democrat-manifesto-an-initial-reaction-from-ifs
The LDs have also now overtaken the Tories as the main party of the rich in terms of the percentage of their support. According to Yougov in 2019 for example the LDs won 20% of those earning over £70,000 a year compared to 12% of UK voters overall, the Tories by contrast won 40% of the highest earners compared to 44% of voters overall and Labour won 31% of those on the highest incomes compared to 32% of voters overall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#cite_note-348
https://twitter.com/LydneyTownAFC/status/1340263050918711297
"You say it best when you say nothing at all....."
That could be pointing to the health service starting to collapse.
There is nothing good about where the LDs are.
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/map/2020/09/marine-protected-area-mpa-map-of-west-of-scotland-mpa/documents/map-of-west-of-scotland-marine-protected-area-mpa/map-of-west-of-scotland-marine-protected-area-mpa/govscot:document/Map+of+West+of+Scotland+MPA+September+2020.png
A cynic (who? me?) would say tyhat the last thing Mr Johnson's regime wants to do is to use its sale of the rest of the UK's industrial birthright for a bowl of mackerel pottage to actually conserve British fish rather than let their Brexiter trawler owner chums clean out the lot.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1338587459811241985
On the 10th Of December (day randomly selected by me) of UK wide pillar 2 tests only 4.4 were done in Scotland.
Notable that growth ahead of our neighbours was not restricted to the Thatcher government, but rather a feature of all governments since. Relative growth that eluded governments of both colours prior to membership.
The economics of membership of the Single Market are conclusive (and I understand that you remain keen on this via EEA). The wisdom or folly of Brexit comes down to non economic arguments about values.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38&LAB=37&LIB=10&Brexit=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.3&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=5.7&SCOTBrexit=1&SCOTGreen=1.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=51.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
So what do you conclude from that?
https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman/status/1340512162666582018
Better to get someone in at virtually free who then goes to the casino than to have an empty room.
I now have “I’m going to wash that man right outta my hair” stuck in my head
Forecast is pants here for tomorrow, so this is the best chance I am likely to see the two so close.
Cheered me up on an otherwise crap day (my family now all being in tier 4 locations).
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1340714094710706177
This was the second result of a simple google search
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-54303061
Plan accordingly.
Wales with a slight downtick today. Growth had slowed down in the last couple of days as well, so hopefully it's not just a reporting issue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
In 2015 by contrast 32% of Tory voters earned over £70,000 a year and only 29% of LD voters earned over £70,000 a year so there was no statistical illiteracy about it, the LDs have overtaken the Tories as the party of the rich in terms of their core support.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
From case data
From hospitalisation data