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Punters losing confidence that there’ll be a deal before the end of the year – politicalbetting.com
Punters losing confidence that there’ll be a deal before the end of the year – politicalbetting.com
While everything is so focused on the pandemic punters on the Smarkets betting exchange are becoming less confident that Johnson will be able to reach a deal in the few days that are left.
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With the same intention of arriving at No Deal.
We no longer need permission from Brussels to close down our economy and cancel Christmas!
I can hardly sneer though. I voted for him once, for Mayor of London, although in y defence I must point out the alternative was Ken Livingstone.
Exciting times.
1. We found the new variant early, and we've been tracking all the variants from the start. New variants in themselves are not significant.
2. When the November lockdown ended the limited effect of the lockdown in the South East started to ring alarm bells. This also conincided with the new variant becoming significantly more common in the region.
3. People started to wonder if the two things were linked, that the rise in cases was due to the new variant being more transmissible.
4. Modelling and analysis started a few weeks ago to try and get a handle on whether the new variant was responsible for the increasing cases.
5. Hancock raised the possibility of the new variant being responsible at the end of last week, and got criticised for it as quite a few scientists said "where's the evidence?"
6. NERVTAG reported at the end of this week that they had concluded that there was increased transmission due to the variant's mutation.
So it's absolutely true we knew about a new variant in September. But that is of no importance, as there are lots of variants. It was the ending of the November lockdown that highlighted a potential problem, and only at the end of this week did NERVTAG conclude the rise in cases were due to the mutations of the new variant. That's the important new information.
SouthamObserver said:
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I doubt that the pressure for independence would be as great in Scotland if there were a Labour-led government in Westminster.
I think you are wrong, they are seen as Tory lites nowadays, almost as Tory as the Tories and as big liars as Tories. Both are seen as cheeks of the same arse.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1340600390950240261?s=20
'Saturday' being 12 Dec.
I wonder why Europhiles are so adamant to call the EU the world's largest association when it isn't under any meaningful definition.
It's quite probable by the end of the decade that the EU won't even be one of the three largest trade blocs in the world: the USMCA, China and the CPTPP will likely all have a higher share of global GDP than the EU.
The desperation of so many on this board and in the media to blame our government for everything is almost an illness. Of course our government has made a lot of mistakes. The internal markets bill provisions were a serious mistake. But the EU has made many, many mistakes too. Their refusal to even discuss the matters on which we are still at loggerheads until the transitional agreement had been signed was probably the most stupid.
Johnson is not an epidemiologist or a scientist. He acts on the advice of SAGE.
You will have a point if you can show that Johnson was told by SAGE it was really urgent to shut dow on Saturday, yet he sat on his bum for days.
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Yet he is happy to lump together Tory, Labour and LDs as an imaginary Unionist bloc, while forgetting that even now some of the voters Labour have are pro-indy.
I don't see how no more than three households mixing, with schools and many businesses closed, with all the other awareness we have now, for just five days, with hospitality still essentially shut or heavily restricted nationwide could possibly result in an R of 3.
Its childish and stupid. Its that simple.
In England the Tories got more vote share than the SNP got in Scotland.
An R of 3 looks like absurd modelling, because the population's behaviour changes as a function of R?
Therefore 54% of Scots still voted for Unionist parties combining the 25% for the Tories, 18.6% for Labour and 9.5% for the LDs and 0.6% for the Brexit Party and UKIP.
Many of us have repeatedly asserted that when the Show Trials begin first in the dock, representing the Eu, will be a certain Herr Juncker, guilty as charged.
None of that should however distract from the basic truth that the EU has a sovereign right to be every bit as effing stupid as us.
“Over the last few days, thanks to our world-class genomic capability in the UK, we have identified a new variant of coronavirus which may be associated with the faster spread in the South East of England. Initial analysis suggests that this variant is growing faster than the existing variants.”
Hancock on the telly this morning says ministers only learnt about the infectivity of the new variant at 15.00 BST on Friday and Saturday's response was "one of the fastest decisions" taken during the pandemic.
So it’s a matter of degree.
And probably the third most transformative PM for this country since WWII.
In all the criticism of Boris it has not been recognised that until his announcement yesterday the other 3 devolved nations were following the same path for Christmas, and Sturgeon and Drakeford only announced the same changes to Christmas after Boris's press conference.
It does look like coordinated action across the UK and while it does not suit the anti Boris campaigners the policy across the UK immediately before his press conference was the same
“New COVID virus is definitely, without doubt, no ifs or buts, 70% more infectious” says government?
Remember when the threat of Saddam Hussain was sexed up? Could this turn out to be the same as Tony Blair and his government overstating the threat of Saddam Hussain?
My conclusion is no.
Firstly, the government are clever to caveat their claims about new COVID strain (perhaps knowing their supporters and the media won’t use the caveats)
Secondly, government experts didn’t believe claims in Blair’s dodgy dossier, but medical experts today do believe the governments Xmas plans were bonkers, and are genuinely on board with the u turn, it’s the one they wanted.
Conclusion. Boris was in a hole, he is now out a hole, and regardless how he may have sexed up COVID he is now on side of public and science opinion so is safe.
Have a merry Christmas 😄
PS. Brexit deal to be announced Thursday for minimum scrutiny and quickest rubber stamp in history.
I really don't know what to do in the Holyrood elections as I would like to vote for the Greens again. Perhaps I will decide that the Climate is more important as a determinant of my vote.
We have the right to walk away until they come to their senses.
As do they if that's what they think.
A few years WTO allow tempers to cool then build a clean FTA from scratch looking to get closer together rather than further apart may be the best route out of this.
https://twitter.com/Gilesyb/status/1340589220176510977
This is so stupid that it will not remain the situation for long. I would guess this will be sorted out again by the end of 2021, whether there is a deal or not.
Either option is bad for Scotland.
Talking about the Scottish Greens, did you see the news about Andy Wightman? It's not clear from the piece if he is going to stand as an independent MSP though I do hope so - he has done some really good work on land ownership and its abuse (targeting Labour councils as much as big landowners). I'd be tempted to vote for him on the List if I had the chance.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/18/scottish-greens-msp-resigns-claiming-intolerance-over-women-and-trans-rights
I've gone straight to the horse's mouth, and found this from the 19th.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-19-december-2020
The only published statements from the PM on the 12th are both about climate change.
The first mention of the new variant was by Hancock in the House of Commons on Monday the 14th.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/sharp-rise-in-coronavirus-numbers-and-a-new-variant
Thatcher > Cameron or Boris* > Blair > Major > Brown** > May
* Too soon to tell yet if Boris will end up ahead or behind Cameron
** Brown is worst Chancellor of my lifetime. Never expected to rank a Tory below him as PM but May managed it and then some.
I may be partisan but not uber-partisan, I have a Tory as the worst and Blair ahead of two Tories.
I wonder if the Germans have a word for that too?
There is so much to criticise this government for. They are struggling in so many areas, almost overwhelmed by the challenges that they face. I am just not convinced that this, despite the frustrations caused, is one of the better examples of where they have called it wrong.