Punters losing confidence that there’ll be a deal before the end of the year – politicalbetting.com

Foxy said:

Looks like @Cyclefree will be needed more than ever

https://twitter.com/ftfinancenews/status/1340522544944848901?s=19

MaxPB said:

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.

The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.

Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.

I wonder if any country had identified the virulent variant but kept quiet about it.

We know the Danes did over Mink COVID. I do wonder whether that is related to this new strain from Kent.

YBarddCwsc said:

glw said:

MaxPB said:

gealbhan said:

MaxPB said:

Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.

The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.

Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.

Alternatively people couldn’t resist Christmas shopping.

Ok, so this ripped through Kent, previously one of the most compliant areas in the country, because of what then?

This new strain is real and it's everywhere now. You can stick your head in the sand all the way I until the government announces tier 4 restrictions nationally and European countries follow, doesn't mean it's not a real threat.

I wish it was the government trying it on, and that they were using the variant as an excuse to "u-turn". It would be great to think that this is a stunt. Sadly I agree with Max, this is really bad news, and we need vaccines to come sooner and being taken up to a higher level. 2021 is going to be grim.

Without adding to the doom, do we know that the existing vaccine is as effective against the new strain?

The flu vaccine is tweaked each year.

We can't just assume that the existing vaccine is as effective in fighting the new strain, right?

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

WhisperingOracle said:

MarqueeMark said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?

"being twattish" (aka negotiating) is fairly common in trade talks, I believe.

If the UK were negotiating in the same spirit as France, we would have yesterdy introduced the return of Calais into the mix.

With the same intention of arriving at No Deal.

The UK has negotiated in an absurd way very often ; it's held up co-operation on vital common security issues as a negotiation tactic multiple times, for instance.

That would be why we are being excluded from the security systems operated by Schengen and the EU as well as the criminal data base then despite being clear that we wanted to remain a part of both then? For goodness sake, get real.

The reality is that we are not prepared to make the compromises necessary to be included in them. That is our sovereign choice. We believe the upsides of participation are not worth the sovereignty sacrifices that such participation would entail.

That's not true. We have been clear. We want to be in them. The EU has said no. That is their sovereign right but it is absurd to see it as anything other than deliberate self harm on their part.

Foxy said:

Looks like @Cyclefree will be needed more than ever

https://twitter.com/ftfinancenews/status/1340522544944848901?s=19

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.

While I feel that a deal is more likely than not there is a part of me that would enjoy no deal just to see you eating some humble pie.

I wonder if the Germans have a word for that too?

I bet they do. But tbf there's a part of you - the Redwood part - that would in any case enjoy this particular Not Happening Event happening regardless of its undoubtedly devastating impact on my cred. NO DEAL = PROPER LEAVE. If I were a Brexit Headbanger it's what I would want.

I am not a Brexit Headbanger.

If anything I am a Democracy Headbanger.

Democracy must be respected even if, perhaps especially if, the people vote for what you consider to be the Wrong Thing (TM).

In 2016 had we voted to Remain then I would have been OK with that. We did not though. We voted to Take Back Control of our laws and sovereignty and I want that respected.

Yes, yes. But we were talking about "a part of you". You do have some Redwood in there. It emits too brightly for this not to be the case.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1340171550620868614

Carnyx said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

I have to say on a different subject Universal Credit I was wrong .
My daughter who has a severley disabled child got divorced in September.
So had to move from legacy benefits to UC.

It was all done on line and the first payment arrived 5 weeks after the initial claim.
She obtained an advance payment to cover this period to pay the bills.
The payment from then on is paid the same day every month , which is easier to budget.

My only concern would be for people, who do not have access to the Internet, or do not have a mobile phone , or id such as a passport.
However in this crisis I was impressed how the DWP , assisted my daughter as she does not need any more stress, with looking after a severley disabled child.

That's good to hear.

But I still don't understand why they have the five week delay.

To punish them for daring to claim. I can't think what else it is. When I was a student in the 1970s and claimed during the vacs when I coiuldn't get a job, the delay was a week at most, and that was before modern IT systems.

OldKingCole said:

moonshine said:

Boris it turns out is quite shit at politics when he doesn’t have Dommo there.
.......................................................
Philip is dead wrong. This is without doubt now the worst government of his lifetime by just about any metric I would care to mention. I wish I’d voted for Corbyn. At least then conservative principles would have lived to fight another day.

I have to say that I think it's the worst Government of my lifetime. Worse than the last stages of the Heath Govt in 1973/4

Cyclefree said:

Foxy said:

Looks like @Cyclefree will be needed more than ever

https://twitter.com/ftfinancenews/status/1340522544944848901?s=19

Shall I write to the Government's Anti-Corruption Tsar, John Penrose MP (husband of Dido Harding) offering my services?

Or would that be what is known in my trade as a total fucking waste of time?

OldKingCole said:

moonshine said:

Boris it turns out is quite shit at politics when he doesn’t have Dommo there.
.......................................................
Philip is dead wrong. This is without doubt now the worst government of his lifetime by just about any metric I would care to mention. I wish I’d voted for Corbyn. At least then conservative principles would have lived to fight another day.

I have to say that I think it's the worst Government of my lifetime. Worse than the last stages of the Heath Govt in 1973/4

moonshine said:

Boris it turns out is quite shit at politics when he doesn’t have Dommo there.

He’s now royally pissed off everyone who thinks lockdowns are of limited use, the whole pandemic response overblown / counterproductive and considers the executive overreach an abuse of democracy.

And he has cemented his reputation as a cavalier moron to everyone who thinks we should be locking down harder, longer and deeper.

I’d venture the group of people who sit in between is about as big as people who didn’t have much of an opinion on Brexit in 2017–19.

What unites everyone, is the view that this year has been made worse by not having a coherent strategy that is transparently communicated, with clear milestones that drive government behaviour..

Even now, they miss the open goals. “When X people have been vaccinated we expect to see Y and will loosen Z. Our central estimate is this will occur by dates A, B and C”.

All we get is trite rubbish about trains, cricket, cycling up a hill, “Christmas at Easter” etc...

And in the void of transparent scientific debate of the detail behind decision making, they openly invite non compliance, conjecture and eventually conspiracy theory.

Philip is dead wrong. This is without doubt now the worst government of his lifetime by just about any metric I would care to mention. I wish I’d voted for Corbyn. At least then conservative principles would have lived to fight another day.

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

nichomar said:

Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.

What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort
Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts

Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc

The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.

How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.

A story to illustrate.

Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.

Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.

Indeed. The Tories have absolutely gutted the police of resources. The same MPs who voted again and again and again to cut funding and thus officer numbers then whine about the lack of officers.

In Scotland the Tories claimed they made the SNP recruit extra officers (which migjt well be true).

So much for the Union.

Cyclefree said:

Foxy said:

Looks like @Cyclefree will be needed more than ever

https://twitter.com/ftfinancenews/status/1340522544944848901?s=19

Shall I write to the Government's Anti-Corruption Tsar, John Penrose MP (husband of Dido Harding) offering my services?

Or would that be what is known in my trade as a total fucking waste of time?

OldKingCole said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

nichomar said:

Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.

What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort
Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts

Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc

The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.

How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.

A story to illustrate.

Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.

Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.

Indeed. The Tories have absolutely gutted the police of resources. The same MPs who voted again and again and again to cut funding and thus officer numbers then whine about the lack of officers.

In Scotland the Tories claimed they made the SNP recruit extra officers (which migjt well be true).

So much for the Union.

Crowds of Tories behaving that badly?

Philip_Thompson said:

moonshine said:

Boris it turns out is quite shit at politics when he doesn’t have Dommo there.

He’s now royally pissed off everyone who thinks lockdowns are of limited use, the whole pandemic response overblown / counterproductive and considers the executive overreach an abuse of democracy.

And he has cemented his reputation as a cavalier moron to everyone who thinks we should be locking down harder, longer and deeper.

I’d venture the group of people who sit in between is about as big as people who didn’t have much of an opinion on Brexit in 2017–19.

What unites everyone, is the view that this year has been made worse by not having a coherent strategy that is transparently communicated, with clear milestones that drive government behaviour..

Even now, they miss the open goals. “When X people have been vaccinated we expect to see Y and will loosen Z. Our central estimate is this will occur by dates A, B and C”.

All we get is trite rubbish about trains, cricket, cycling up a hill, “Christmas at Easter” etc...

And in the void of transparent scientific debate of the detail behind decision making, they openly invite non compliance, conjecture and eventually conspiracy theory.

Philip is dead wrong. This is without doubt now the worst government of his lifetime by just about any metric I would care to mention. I wish I’d voted for Corbyn. At least then conservative principles would have lived to fight another day.

So your central complaint against the government is that it is applying moderation?

Ignoring the Siren calls of extremists who want to let everything rip without mitigation?

And the Siren calls of extremists who want to lock everything down and damn the consequences for doing so?

And you consider that to be a bad thing? 🤔

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

nichomar said:

Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.

What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort
Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts

Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc

The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.

How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.

A story to illustrate.

Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.

Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.

Indeed. The Tories have absolutely gutted the police of resources. The same MPs who voted again and again and again to cut funding and thus officer numbers then whine about the lack of officers.

In Scotland the Tories claimed they made the SNP recruit extra officers (which migjt well be true).

So much for the Union.

Crowds of Tories behaving that badly?

I wouldn't like to say. No, only joking - they made the SNP recruit more polis as a condition of passing the budget a few years back.

But increasing police per head in Scotland and decreasing it in England is odd for a Unionist party when it makes them diverge quite a bit, even allowing for slightly different counting. I polis per 316 Scots vs a much lower English figure (around 200 a couple of years back?)

another_richard said:

JohnLilburne said:

Carnyx said:

another_richard said:

Yorkcity said:

I have to say on a different subject Universal Credit I was wrong .
My daughter who has a severley disabled child got divorced in September.
So had to move from legacy benefits to UC.

It was all done on line and the first payment arrived 5 weeks after the initial claim.
She obtained an advance payment to cover this period to pay the bills.
The payment from then on is paid the same day every month , which is easier to budget.

My only concern would be for people, who do not have access to the Internet, or do not have a mobile phone , or id such as a passport.
However in this crisis I was impressed how the DWP , assisted my daughter as she does not need any more stress, with looking after a severley disabled child.

That's good to hear.

But I still don't understand why they have the five week delay.

To punish them for daring to claim. I can't think what else it is. When I was a student in the 1970s and claimed during the vacs when I coiuldn't get a job, the delay was a week at most, and that was before modern IT systems.

Benefits are always paid in arrears. This one happens to be paid monthly, not fortnightly. Your first payment is calculated one calendar month after you claim, and in your bank account a week later.

For a salaried person who has just lost their job and is used to budgeting monthly, this works well. For others, less so.

Employment agencies tend to pay on a weekly basis.

So a person moving back and forth between agency work and unemployment would find the five week delay complicated and inconvenient.

BluestBlue said:

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:

Foxy said:

Looks like @Cyclefree will be needed more than ever

https://twitter.com/ftfinancenews/status/1340522544944848901?s=19

Shall I write to the Government's Anti-Corruption Tsar, John Penrose MP (husband of Dido Harding) offering my services?

Or would that be what is known in my trade as a total fucking waste of time?

I was amazed how easy it was for me to get a business continuity loan of 5 figures on the basis of my private practice. It took 20 min of form filling.

Entirely legit of course, and allowed me to keep my secretary and credit controller employed for 6 months until got some income again.

Bastards. Clearly the work of the Worst Government Evaaah

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

nichomar said:

Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.

What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort
Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts

Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc

The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.

How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.

A story to illustrate.

Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.

Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.

Indeed. The Tories have absolutely gutted the police of resources. The same MPs who voted again and again and again to cut funding and thus officer numbers then whine about the lack of officers.

In Scotland the Tories claimed they made the SNP recruit extra officers (which migjt well be true).

So much for the Union.

Crowds of Tories behaving that badly?

I wouldn't like to say. No, only joking - they made the SNP recruit more polis as a condition of passing the budget a few years back.

But increasing police per head in Scotland and decreasing it in England is odd for a Unionist party when it makes them diverge quite a bit, even allowing for slightly different counting. I polis per 316 Scots vs a much lower English figure (around 200 a couple of years back?)

All those soldiers Hyufd is sending into Scotland won't be able to guard their own tanks, you know.

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1340629830275125252

Dunno. Seems a ton of Londoners reacted to the new strain last night.

By rushing to the railway stations heading North.

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1340629830275125252

Dunno. Seems a ton of Londoners reacted to the new strain last night.

By rushing to the railway stations heading North.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.

And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement

No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.

I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason

He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family

If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.

Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford

I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature

However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better

Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day

Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.

For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?

Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.

They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?

*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?

But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement

Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures

Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday

Wowsers. You really will defend anything. We know for a fact that they knew this was out there and that it was bad. The only question was how much worse than standard Covid. So obviously attacking schools and calling what they are now themselves doing was obviously the smart political strategy.

Why not answer the question

Why did Boris, Sturgeon and Drakeford only act immediately after the advice on Friday if they had known before

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1340578615709360128

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1340578615709360128

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

moonshine said:

Boris it turns out is quite shit at politics when he doesn’t have Dommo there.
.......................................................
Philip is dead wrong. This is without doubt now the worst government of his lifetime by just about any metric I would care to mention. I wish I’d voted for Corbyn. At least then conservative principles would have lived to fight another day.

I have to say that I think it's the worst Government of my lifetime. Worse than the last stages of the Heath Govt in 1973/4

To be honest the only government in my lifetime who faced something as devastating as this was the war cabinet

I expect many governments across Europe, good or bad, will have their reputations extinguished by covid

That's true, but much of the problem faced wasn't of that Governments own making. Although I suppose one could argue that the Chamberlain Conservative Governments appeasement policy led to the War, which was sorted by the Churchill Coalition Government.

Inclined to agree that some will come out with reputations somewhat damaged, some less so.

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

nichomar said:

Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.

What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort
Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts

Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc

The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.

How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.

A story to illustrate.

Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.

Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.

Indeed. The Tories have absolutely gutted the police of resources. The same MPs who voted again and again and again to cut funding and thus officer numbers then whine about the lack of officers.

In Scotland the Tories claimed they made the SNP recruit extra officers (which migjt well be true).

So much for the Union.

Crowds of Tories behaving that badly?

I wouldn't like to say. No, only joking - they made the SNP recruit more polis as a condition of passing the budget a few years back.

But increasing police per head in Scotland and decreasing it in England is odd for a Unionist party when it makes them diverge quite a bit, even allowing for slightly different counting. I polis per 316 Scots vs a much lower English figure (around 200 a couple of years back?)

All those soldiers Hyufd is sending into Scotland won't be able to guard their own tanks, you know.

Oh, please don't encourage him. But actually that's a core issue - why bother with the union if its own party actively encourages divergence in a key area of their characteristic manifesto?

Why bother with devolution at all if there isn't some divergence?

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.

And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement

No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.

I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason

He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family

If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.

Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford

I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature

However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better

Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day

Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.

For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?

Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.

They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?

*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?

But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement

Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures

Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday

Wowsers. You really will defend anything. We know for a fact that they knew this was out there and that it was bad. The only question was how much worse than standard Covid. So obviously attacking schools and calling what they are now themselves doing was obviously the smart political strategy.

Why not answer the question

Why did Boris, Sturgeon and Drakeford only act immediately after the advice on Friday if they had known before

I don't know about the others. But if the PM and cabinet didn't know about it until Friday then why were they warning us about it 4 days earlier on Monday?

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.

And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement

No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.

I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason

He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family

If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.

Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford

I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature

However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better

Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day

Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.

For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?

Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.

They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?

*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?

But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement

Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures

Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday

Wowsers. You really will defend anything. We know for a fact that they knew this was out there and that it was bad. The only question was how much worse than standard Covid. So obviously attacking schools and calling what they are now themselves doing was obviously the smart political strategy.

Why not answer the question

Why did Boris, Sturgeon and Drakeford only act immediately after the advice on Friday if they had known before

I don't know about the others. But if the PM and cabinet didn't know about it until Friday then why were they warning us about it 4 days earlier on Monday?

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.

While I feel that a deal is more likely than not there is a part of me that would enjoy no deal just to see you eating some humble pie.

I wonder if the Germans have a word for that too?

I bet they do. But tbf there's a part of you - the Redwood part - that would in any case enjoy this particular Not Happening Event happening regardless of its undoubtedly devastating impact on my cred. NO DEAL = PROPER LEAVE. If I were a Brexit Headbanger it's what I would want.

I am not a Brexit Headbanger.

If anything I am a Democracy Headbanger.

Democracy must be respected even if, perhaps especially if, the people vote for what you consider to be the Wrong Thing (TM).

In 2016 had we voted to Remain then I would have been OK with that. We did not though. We voted to Take Back Control of our laws and sovereignty and I want that respected.

Yes, yes. But we were talking about "a part of you". You do have some Redwood in there. It emits too brightly for this not to be the case.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1340171550620868614

There are many of us who support Brexit because it was democratically voted for but who reject the absurdities of the ERG

Probably goes for most people. But there is a minority who are gung ho for severing links with Europe. I used to idly contemplate what the size of that minority might be but then there was a survey published on here which answered the question. It was around 17%. I suppose that is the target market for the Farage "betrayal" line when the deal comes.

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.

And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement

No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.

I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason

He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family

If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.

Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford

I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature

However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better

Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day

Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.

For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?

Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.

They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?

*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?

But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement

Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures

Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday

Wowsers. You really will defend anything. We know for a fact that they knew this was out there and that it was bad. The only question was how much worse than standard Covid. So obviously attacking schools and calling what they are now themselves doing was obviously the smart political strategy.

Why not answer the question

Why did Boris, Sturgeon and Drakeford only act immediately after the advice on Friday if they had known before

I don't know about the others. But if the PM and cabinet didn't know about it until Friday then why were they warning us about it 4 days earlier on Monday?

Because the advice doesn't go from zero to full overnight.

On Monday they knew there was a new strain that appeared to be increasing transmission but how much was unknown. So the advice changed and the relevant region was moved into Tier 3.

On Thursday NERVTAG reported the new strain was even worse than was previously envisioned. Hence the emergency recall of the Covid O Committee that had already met earlier that day and the emergency statements by Johnson, Sturgeon and Drakeford the following day.

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

nichomar said:

Sterile debate today, defenders defending, attackers trying to pin blame, no suggestions as to a better way forward just who may have said what, when.

What’s needed is to police the restrictions seriously, none of this prosecution is a last resort
Ensure the rollout of the vaccine is in the hands of logistics experts

Start investigating the claims of fraud from all sides, government, claimants etc

The UK government looks like a soft pushover waiting to be taken advantage of by its own citizens.

How on earth do you police this though. That is the problem with trying to make this law. Everyone knows it is unenforceable.

A story to illustrate.

Just over a year ago on November 6th 2019 a good friend of mine died. He had been suffering from lung cancer but his death was sudden due to a pulmonary haemorrhage whilst he was at home alone. A mutual friend had turned up but could not get in so called myself and also the police. After identifying my friend I spent a couple of hours with the policeman helping him with details and waiting for the undertakers to arrive. In that time it turned out that the total police force present in Newark that Tuesday evening was the copper I was talking to, one other who was investigating an assault in one of the villages and a desk sergeant. When I expressed surprise at how few police were on duty he said that this was pretty good for the town and that Nottingham that evening had 15 officers on duty - for a city of some 330,000 people.

Policing in this country is by consent. It has to be because there simply isn't the power to do it any other way on a day to day basis. The idea we can police covid restrictions in any meaningful manner when so many do not believe in them is completely unrealistic.

Indeed. The Tories have absolutely gutted the police of resources. The same MPs who voted again and again and again to cut funding and thus officer numbers then whine about the lack of officers.

In Scotland the Tories claimed they made the SNP recruit extra officers (which migjt well be true).

So much for the Union.

Crowds of Tories behaving that badly?

I wouldn't like to say. No, only joking - they made the SNP recruit more polis as a condition of passing the budget a few years back.

But increasing police per head in Scotland and decreasing it in England is odd for a Unionist party when it makes them diverge quite a bit, even allowing for slightly different counting. I polis per 316 Scots vs a much lower English figure (around 200 a couple of years back?)

All those soldiers Hyufd is sending into Scotland won't be able to guard their own tanks, you know.

Oh, please don't encourage him. But actually that's a core issue - why bother with the union if its own party actively encourages divergence in a key area of their characteristic manifesto?

Why bother with devolution at all if there isn't some divergence?

Quite. But from the Tories?

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1340610229097144325?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1340610235564756992?s=20

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.

And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement

No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.

I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason

He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family

If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.

Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford

I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature

However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better

Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day

Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.

For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?

Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.

They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?

*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?

But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement

Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures

Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday

Wowsers. You really will defend anything. We know for a fact that they knew this was out there and that it was bad. The only question was how much worse than standard Covid. So obviously attacking schools and calling what they are now themselves doing was obviously the smart political strategy.

Why not answer the question

Why did Boris, Sturgeon and Drakeford only act immediately after the advice on Friday if they had known before

I don't know about the others. But if the PM and cabinet didn't know about it until Friday then why were they warning us about it 4 days earlier on Monday?

Because the advice doesn't go from zero to full overnight.

On Monday they knew there was a new strain that appeared to be increasing transmission but how much was unknown. So the advice changed and the relevant region was moved into Tier 3.

On Thursday NERVTAG reported the new strain was even worse than was previously envisioned. Hence the emergency recall of the Covid O Committee that had already met earlier that day and the emergency statements by Johnson, Sturgeon and Drakeford the following day.

Indeed. My point is that having known their were awaiting news about how much worse this new strain was the government chose to attack schools and claim the opposition wanted to cancel Christmas. The politically smart option would have been to soften people up for what was likely to come. As Whitty has strongly inferred he was advising

moonshine said:

Philip_Thompson said:

moonshine said:

Boris it turns out is quite shit at politics when he doesn’t have Dommo there.

He’s now royally pissed off everyone who thinks lockdowns are of limited use, the whole pandemic response overblown / counterproductive and considers the executive overreach an abuse of democracy.

And he has cemented his reputation as a cavalier moron to everyone who thinks we should be locking down harder, longer and deeper.

I’d venture the group of people who sit in between is about as big as people who didn’t have much of an opinion on Brexit in 2017–19.

What unites everyone, is the view that this year has been made worse by not having a coherent strategy that is transparently communicated, with clear milestones that drive government behaviour..

Even now, they miss the open goals. “When X people have been vaccinated we expect to see Y and will loosen Z. Our central estimate is this will occur by dates A, B and C”.

All we get is trite rubbish about trains, cricket, cycling up a hill, “Christmas at Easter” etc...

And in the void of transparent scientific debate of the detail behind decision making, they openly invite non compliance, conjecture and eventually conspiracy theory.

Philip is dead wrong. This is without doubt now the worst government of his lifetime by just about any metric I would care to mention. I wish I’d voted for Corbyn. At least then conservative principles would have lived to fight another day.

So your central complaint against the government is that it is applying moderation?

Ignoring the Siren calls of extremists who want to let everything rip without mitigation?

And the Siren calls of extremists who want to lock everything down and damn the consequences for doing so?

And you consider that to be a bad thing? 🤔

The Boris government is applying a reasoned course of sensible moderation. Yes... gave me a good chuckle that one. The reason they haven’t laid out a coherent strategy is because they don’t have one. They pull in opposite directions at the same time and bounce from one communications blunder to the next. And we end up with the worst of all worlds.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.

And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement

No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.

I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason

He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family

If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.

Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford

I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature

However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better

Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day

Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.

For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?

Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.

They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?

*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?

But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement

Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures

Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday

Wowsers. You really will defend anything. We know for a fact that they knew this was out there and that it was bad. The only question was how much worse than standard Covid. So obviously attacking schools and calling what they are now themselves doing was obviously the smart political strategy.

Why not answer the question

Why did Boris, Sturgeon and Drakeford only act immediately after the advice on Friday if they had known before

I don't know about the others. But if the PM and cabinet didn't know about it until Friday then why were they warning us about it 4 days earlier on Monday?

You cannot ignore the devolved nations as the reaction yesterday was co-ordinated and very much the same

The advice was on Friday and if the government and devolved parliaments had acted before that it would not have been on the advice and they would have been widely attacked

I get easily confused, why can't I ignore the response of the devolved nations? Isnt that the whole point of devolution? Each part of the UK gets to decide its own rules on devolved matters and hold their own politicians accountable?

The virus does not react to the devolved nature of the UK and coordinated action across the UK is essential

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

I think the new virus strain is somewhat a pretext. Obviously greater transmissibility is a concern, but the big increase in cases in parts of the UK isn't wholly or probably even mainly down to the new strain. It's easier for governments to say, Because of the new deadly virus strain, than to say, We mucked up.

And with respect you possess scientific qualifications for that statement

No BigG. You can't allow Drakeford off the hook that easily.

I would not let Drakeford off the hook for any reason

He has been a disaster for Wales and not just on covid, but the failed NHS which has had negative effects on my own family

If you can't (justifiably) let Drakeford of the hook, neither can you Johnson.

Boris is not a covid PM but the present controversy over Christmas has become more apparent on the media this am with the scientific advice only being given to the government on Friday and Boris reacting yesterday, followed by Sturgeon and Drakeford

I would say that he cannot be enjoying any of this as it is so much against his freedom optimistic nature

However, we are where we are and I have no confidence Starmer and his front bench would be any better

Indeed I believe even Merkel is becoming unpopular day by day

Here is the problem. The advice WASN'T on Friday. The scientists have known about this for some time. The government have been talking about it since at least Monday*. It didn't suddenly arrive out of nowhere on Friday.

For at least the past week the government have known this was about - if not exactly how bad it was, they at least knew it was bad. We know this based on what they were saying on Monday. What then did the government choose to do whilst in possession of this knowledge?

Thats right, it stepped up its plans to have a Big Christmas blowout. More publicity about extra travel opportunities. Threatening to sue LEAs for not keeping their schools open. Feeding more pro-Boris saves Christmas stories to the press. That astonishing display at PMQs.

They are brilliant at immediate-win tactics but utterly blind to anything longer. Which is why Ridge was able to throw the "inhuman" comment straight back at ManCock this morning. If you've been told there is a new super-pox and you've chosen to ignore the scientists again wouldn't it least be sensible to back off on the political rhetoric?

*There is evidence that it has been known for longer. Whitty yesterday suggested fairly strongly that the government acting now was not at the first time of asking. You remember the photo a month or so back of Whitty looking very agitated in a meeting..?

But NHS England on Marr confirmed the advice changed on Friday and hence yesterday's announcement

Furthermore, why did it take yesterday's announcement for Sturgeon and Drakeford to immediately act as well on the same advice and with virtually identical measures

Boris can be attacked for many things but why did neither Sturgeon or Drakeford act before yesterday

Wowsers. You really will defend anything. We know for a fact that they knew this was out there and that it was bad. The only question was how much worse than standard Covid. So obviously attacking schools and calling what they are now themselves doing was obviously the smart political strategy.

Why not answer the question

Why did Boris, Sturgeon and Drakeford only act immediately after the advice on Friday if they had known before

I don't know about the others. But if the PM and cabinet didn't know about it until Friday then why were they warning us about it 4 days earlier on Monday?

Because the advice doesn't go from zero to full overnight.

On Monday they knew there was a new strain that appeared to be increasing transmission but how much was unknown. So the advice changed and the relevant region was moved into Tier 3.

On Thursday NERVTAG reported the new strain was even worse than was previously envisioned. Hence the emergency recall of the Covid O Committee that had already met earlier that day and the emergency statements by Johnson, Sturgeon and Drakeford the following day.

Indeed. My point is that having known their were awaiting news about how much worse this new strain was the government chose to attack schools and claim the opposition wanted to cancel Christmas. The politically smart option would have been to soften people up for what was likely to come. As Whitty has strongly inferred he was advising

I called Williamson a damn fool at the time for the schools thing.

Even without the NERVTAG report threatening to sue to keep schools open for three whole days (not weeks or months) was absolutely futile.

Williamson is an idiot. Doesn't know how to pick his battles. There was nothing to be won from that one. For the sake of three whole days just let it slide. Idiot.

Not disagreeing with the idiocy of Williamson.

But I wonder if Greenwich council went with the proper procedures and negotiations before making the announcement.

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MarqueeMark said:

Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?

MarqueeMark said:

Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?

Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.

Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.

And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.

another_richard said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MarqueeMark said:

Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?

MarqueeMark said:

Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?

Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.

Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.

And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.

So far better out than in, AR.

Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.

It will be interesting to see.

On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.

another_richard said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MarqueeMark said:

Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?

MarqueeMark said:

Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?

Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.

Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.

And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.

another_richard said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MarqueeMark said:

Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?

MarqueeMark said:

Well, if the EU insists on being twattish......what can we do?

Not a lot, mate, but then a nation that votes itself out of the world's largest and most successful free trade association isn't in much of a position to lecture others about twattishness.

Given that the UK has been a net financial contributor and has had a large and continuous trade deficit with EU countries I'm not sure that it has been successful for the UK.

And that's likely more the fault of the UK than anyone else.

So far better out than in, AR.

Believe me I will be only too pleased to acknowledge this if and when evidence surfaces. I'd like to see us make a decent effort of capitalising on our sovereignity though if only so that we will know unambigously before long just how successful the enterprise has been, or not, as the case may be.

It will be interesting to see.

On a theoretical/academic view the implementation of an independent trade policy can be judged fairly now that the incompetent Fox has been removed.

To be honest I'd be happy enough to see the £/Euro exchange rates and our international credit rating return to pre-referendum levels, but I don't think either is very likely for some considerable while.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Belgium closes rail and air links from UK for 24 hours

Have they kidnapped Frost ?

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kinabalu said:

My take is unchanged. Talk of no deal "from UK sources" can be dismissed. It's hype. Moving from frictionless trade to WTO terms is a plan Z for the EU and is not an option at all for the UK. It will not be happening. Things might not get finished and ratified in time, in which case extension or implementation period, but there will be a deal. Intuition says so. Common sense says so. The behavioural evidence, past and present, says so. If only I could find a way to transmit my certainty on this into the heads of the millions of people who are understandably worrying about it. I'd love to be able to perform such a public service. Give something back.

While I feel that a deal is more likely than not there is a part of me that would enjoy no deal just to see you eating some humble pie.

I wonder if the Germans have a word for that too?

I bet they do. But tbf there's a part of you - the Redwood part - that would in any case enjoy this particular Not Happening Event happening regardless of its undoubtedly devastating impact on my cred. NO DEAL = PROPER LEAVE. If I were a Brexit Headbanger it's what I would want.

I am not a Brexit Headbanger.

If anything I am a Democracy Headbanger.

Democracy must be respected even if, perhaps especially if, the people vote for what you consider to be the Wrong Thing (TM).

In 2016 had we voted to Remain then I would have been OK with that. We did not though. We voted to Take Back Control of our laws and sovereignty and I want that respected.

Yes, yes. But we were talking about "a part of you". You do have some Redwood in there. It emits too brightly for this not to be the case.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1340171550620868614

Well yes everything Redwood says in that Tweet is reasonable, unless the EU move further as I hope they do.

The difference is Redwood doesn't want the EU to move I think. He wants No Deal I suspect, I'm just willing to accept it as possibly necessary.

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:

Foxy said:

Looks like @Cyclefree will be needed more than ever

https://twitter.com/ftfinancenews/status/1340522544944848901?s=19

Shall I write to the Government's Anti-Corruption Tsar, John Penrose MP (husband of Dido Harding) offering my services?

Or would that be what is known in my trade as a total fucking waste of time?

I was amazed how easy it was for me to get a business continuity loan of 5 figures on the basis of my private practice. It took 20 min of form filling.

Entirely legit of course, and allowed me to keep my secretary and credit controller employed for 6 months until got some income again.

BluestBlue said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1340610229097144325?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1340610235564756992?s=20

Still more disastrous polling for the Prime Minister as the nation ... overwhelmingly supports his decisions?? [Shurely shome mishtake - Ed]

gealbhan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

gealbhan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

Spent an hour looking over European case data by region, I think this new more virulent mutation is basically in every country. There are odd spikes in case numbers in at least one major area in all European countries similar to how this started off in Kent a month ago.

The next three months are going to be absolutely terrible. The continent is on fire and right now we have one line fireman in one part of it aiming one small hose at it. I also think European people can wave goodbye to global travel without vaccination, there's no way Asian countries are going to let any of us in without proof of vaccination. The threat that this new strain poses to densely populated city based economies is absolutely deadly.

Whatever resources we can shovel to pharma to ramp up vaccine production should now be unlocked. European countries are among the richest in the world, it's time to stop haggling over pennies per dose and subsidise manufacturing capacity in the short term, even if we never need it again and those sites are mothballed after a year.

Are we still the only European country with an approved vaccine? How long are the EU going to wait for the EMA? The Germans are apparently seriously unhappy and rightly so.

I read a report this morning that 15,000 avoudable deaths within the EU will come about as a result of the delay in the vaccine

In hindsight UK government looks good to have bitten the bullet with fast tracking . Or is it related though to throwing cash at stocks? How much has it cost economy to throw so much money at vaccine buying?

I do not know but it must a lot

I agree with you Big G. I’m still not saying our government done the wrong thing, but eye watering sums of money to middlemen to jump a q may look bad in several ways, once the satisfaction of getting vaccinated before EU wears off, the eye watering sums just to shady middlemen will be compared to the cost of free school meals for example and give impression of not good use of tax payers money?

Personally I don’t think UK government have boosted the anti vaccine contingent by cutting corners, so its EU who have made the mistake, but all the wealthy countries of the world use their wealth to leave the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worlds behind in getting hands on vaccine might not show up well in the long run? Suppose that is wether our mind set is in “look after your own” or “lend a hand to everyone” and Brexit Global Britain is definitely the former and we will all have to get used to this mindset?

BluestBlue said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1340610229097144325?s=20

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1340610235564756992?s=20

Still more disastrous polling for the Prime Minister as the nation ... overwhelmingly supports his decisions?? [Shurely shome mishtake - Ed]

NorthofStoke said:

Alistair said:

Betting news

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1340635827668475904?s=19

Combined with the polling I think it will be 2-0 to the GOP.

To the relief of Binden?