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DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FWIW - and I'm giving a massive hostage to fortune here - in contrast to most of the Twitterati, I think that the chances of getting a deal in the next couple of days have improved quite a lot, and it will probably happen.

My reasoning is that the excuses Boris is giving for not signing up are so fantastical that they won't serve as an excuse for No Deal. Today he's repeated this nonsense:

Unfortunately at the moment, as you know, there are two key things where we just can’t seem to make progress and that’s this kind of ratchet clause they’ve got in to keep the UK locked in to whatever they want to do in terms of legislation, which obviously doesn’t work.

We know that is nonsense, he knows it is nonsense, so why is he saying it? If it's to give himself an excuse to 'walk away' and blame the EU, then it's a jolly feeble one. What happens when the EU publish their proposed text?

If Boris really wants an excuse to walk out, he could use fish, which no-one understands and where the EU position can easily be portrayed as unreasonable.

So it looks to me as though he's erecting a massive straw dragon which he can heroically slay.

Fingers crossed that I'm right!

I think you are probably right. Although it is possible that Johnson simply doesn't understand the EU's position on LPF.

It's been spelled out very clearly today by Ursula von der Leyen.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1337346409054474253

To me that is a big move and statement which no doubt puts Macron in his place

I really hope this is the breakthrough we all need

I am not sure it is a big move. It is just not what the UK side has been briefing the UK media. But whether it is or not is beside the point. The ratchet clause as described and condemned by the UK government does not exist.

The UK media have their own very reliable EU and European sources as well too though.

They're not mugs.

Citation needed, I'm afraid.

I think when you have Katya Adler, James Forsyth, Tim Shipman, Laura Kuenssberg and Tony Connelly all saying very similar things - amongst others - you can be fairly certain there's something to it.

Just heard Ursula Van Der luyden explain in the most beautifully articulated English the latest position on the Brexit talks. What a contrast to the embarrassing buffoon of a Prime Minister who followed her.

eek said:

Gallowgate said:

dixiedean said:

Gallowgate said:

I am hopeful that government focus on Blyth will lead (central funding permitting) to a Tyne and Wear Metro extension to the town and to South Northumberland generally.

And Tyne Valley.

Maybe after the West End of Newcastle!

No, you're right. And the Tyne Valley.

It won't be a light railway as it would take forever to get into the City Centre. The plan is a normal rail service (to Central Station) with a stop at Northumberland Avenue for interchange to the Metro

https://www.railfuture.org.uk/Ashington+Blyth+and+Tyne#:~:text=The new service would have,and Seaton Delaval) as well. has full details if it loads

I agree. However, it can be heavy rail and yet still branded as part of the Metro, just like in London.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Is this a concession or sedition?

twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337385736530780161

Yes.

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Is this a concession or sedition?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337385736530780161

Would either of them not require some coherent thought?

Is he feeling ok?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337373146652020736

Selebian said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/nvonwestenholz/status/1337371063836155904?s=20

We have the Peters Projection map, which shows countries according to their actual size, up in our bathroom.

I am pretty sure that graphic is rubbish - or at least very poorly executed.

Norway is 1089 miles long.
The distance from Plymouth to Tangier in Morocco is 1012 miles.

Look at that graphic at its end point and it certainly doesn't show that.

I can't tell whether you're joking - apologies if so!

If you're not, did you not also notice that the Canada-US border becomes a bit harder to cross? Shrinking countries about their centres to their true size while maintaining Mercator projections of centres further exaggerates the distances between them at higher latitudes (the Plymouth-Tangiers distance is very different to the length of Norway in the start, Mercator, projection too).

The best way to look at a map of the world is on a globe.

No I was being serious although having read your reply I realise I was looking at things in perhaps a way that was not intended by the makers.

It stems from me having a little bit of useless information in my mind about how long Norway is. Something the Norwegians are always happy to tell you every single time you visit their country

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Is this a concession or sedition?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337385736530780161

Would either of them not require some coherent thought?

Is he feeling ok?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337373146652020736

He was asking for options for an attack on Iran only a couple of weeks ago. He's full of it.

Philip_Thompson said:

Fairliered said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

I am hopeful that government focus on Blyth will lead (central funding permitting) to a Tyne and Wear Metro extension to the town and to South Northumberland generally.

So is HMG good for the NE

I will judge them on the results. The NE has been ignored by governments of all colours for too long.

I genuinely expect that to change throughout the red wall seats

Indeed.

Labour get their votes from those who are struggling, so it is in their interests to ensure people are struggling.

Tories get their votes from people who are more secure, so it is in their interests to ensure people are secure.

If you want things to change for the better vote Tory.

It has worked for the SNP in Scotland. I remember how grey and grim the West of Scotland was when labour ran everything.

Indeed.

Labour are a party that specialise in failure and misery. Keeping the serfs just about managing and voting for them is their purpose.

The Tories believe in success. Blair claimed to and certainly achieved it for himself. The SNP believe in making a success out of Scotland - they believe too much too in blaming the English, a bit more concentration on making a success out of Scotland and a bit less England bashing wouldn't go amiss. But Scotland is much better off in the SNPs hands than Labours.

Hopefully the red wall finds out they're better off with the Tories than Labour too.

Philip_Thompson said:

Fairliered said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

I am hopeful that government focus on Blyth will lead (central funding permitting) to a Tyne and Wear Metro extension to the town and to South Northumberland generally.

So is HMG good for the NE

I will judge them on the results. The NE has been ignored by governments of all colours for too long.

I genuinely expect that to change throughout the red wall seats

Indeed.

Labour get their votes from those who are struggling, so it is in their interests to ensure people are struggling.

Tories get their votes from people who are more secure, so it is in their interests to ensure people are secure.

If you want things to change for the better vote Tory.

It has worked for the SNP in Scotland. I remember how grey and grim the West of Scotland was when labour ran everything.

Indeed.

Labour are a party that specialise in failure and misery. Keeping the serfs just about managing and voting for them is their purpose.

The Tories believe in success. Blair claimed to and certainly achieved it for himself. The SNP believe in making a success out of Scotland - they believe too much too in blaming the English, a bit more concentration on making a success out of Scotland and a bit less England bashing wouldn't go amiss. But Scotland is much better off in the SNPs hands than Labours.

Hopefully the red wall finds out they're better off with the Tories than Labour too.

Labour have historically relied on people voting for them for fear of their lives being even worse. Scots aren't going back to voting labour any time soon. Voters in the red wall may not either.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1337395942182563842

Roger said:

Just heard Ursula Van Der luyden explain in the most beautifully articulated English the latest position on the Brexit talks. What a contrast to the embarrassing buffoon of a Prime Minister who followed her.

Johnson "explaining" the LPF issue to the British public -

"What they're saying is if THEY buy an expensive handbag, WE have to buy one too. That's really not the way to carry on."

I mean, c'mon. Honestly.

kinabalu said:

Roger said:

Just heard Ursula Van Der luyden explain in the most beautifully articulated English the latest position on the Brexit talks. What a contrast to the embarrassing buffoon of a Prime Minister who followed her.

Johnson "explaining" the LPF issue to the British public -

"What they're saying is if THEY buy an expensive handbag, WE have to buy one too. That's really not the way to carry on."

I mean, c'mon. Honestly.

Cool Britannia. Fit for Brexit.

kinabalu said:

BluestBlue said:

Anabobazina said:

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Drakeford sinking without trace as he announces the disaster that is covid in Wales

All outdoor attractions across Wales to close

He has announced that it is inevitable to move to alert 4 after Christmas unless everyone reduces the number of people we see or mix with

Blaming the public is not a good look

Yet it's one popular with yourself and the other PB moralisers, who call for a reporter's career to be destroyed because she broke covid rules.

Funny old world.

Yes. And often - although not in Big G's case tbf - the very same people who were almost horizontally relaxed about the Dominic "My rules don't apply to me" Cummings affair.

This cost quite a few posters their integrity for 24 hours the other day. 6 of them in fact.

I was remarkably consistent – I thought the Cummings thing was trivial guff (and said so repeatedly on here); ditto Kay Burley et al.

What isn't trivial is the spinecrawling authoritarian moralising from PBers – asking that a woman's livelihood be removed because she had three mates over for drinks.

Except that she enthusiastically participated in exactly that kind of spine-crawling authoritarian moralizing, demanding that other people's livelihoods be removed for similarly trivial offences. That she's finally getting a taste of her own medicine is nothing more than natural justice.

NO. You cannot comment on this. Integrity free zone. Please contact mods and delete your comment.

Lol - aren't the 24 hours up yet?

If this deal is done, can we bet on how many months later Boris tells us that it is unacceptable in some way and that we have to breach it?

Cyclefree said:

If this deal is done, can we bet on how many months later Boris tells us that it is unacceptable in some way and that we have to breach it?

Nah, if Boris puts pen to paper his consistent line will that this is the most splendiferous deal since the Peace of Callias, or something.

F1: still 20 minutes left but right now Ocon to Ricciardo (Perez and Leclerc in between) are covered by three-thousandths of a second.

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:

Nah, if Boris puts pen to paper his consistent line will that this is the most splendiferous deal since the Peace of Callias, or something.

He said that last time

And your point is?

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Is this a concession or sedition?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337385736530780161

Would either of them not require some coherent thought?

Is he feeling ok?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337373146652020736

Perhaps he's considering some voluntary work with the Samaritans as a form of expiation?

Hopefully not.
Imagine being in a state of utter, existential despair...and finding your desperate phone call answered by him.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FWIW - and I'm giving a massive hostage to fortune here - in contrast to most of the Twitterati, I think that the chances of getting a deal in the next couple of days have improved quite a lot, and it will probably happen.

My reasoning is that the excuses Boris is giving for not signing up are so fantastical that they won't serve as an excuse for No Deal. Today he's repeated this nonsense:

Unfortunately at the moment, as you know, there are two key things where we just can’t seem to make progress and that’s this kind of ratchet clause they’ve got in to keep the UK locked in to whatever they want to do in terms of legislation, which obviously doesn’t work.

We know that is nonsense, he knows it is nonsense, so why is he saying it? If it's to give himself an excuse to 'walk away' and blame the EU, then it's a jolly feeble one. What happens when the EU publish their proposed text?

If Boris really wants an excuse to walk out, he could use fish, which no-one understands and where the EU position can easily be portrayed as unreasonable.

So it looks to me as though he's erecting a massive straw dragon which he can heroically slay.

Fingers crossed that I'm right!

I think you are probably right. Although it is possible that Johnson simply doesn't understand the EU's position on LPF.

It's been spelled out very clearly today by Ursula von der Leyen.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1337346409054474253

Yes, it's a huge concession.

Of course it is.

We win. Great deal coming.

To be honest I just want a deal and everyone wins by moving on in an amicable manner

With you there. Which is why I'm not planning to get too animated about Johnson doing his old trick of trumpeting an agreement essentially on the EU's terms as being a big win for the UK achieved by his diligence, resilience and hardball negotiation.

Point is, he has to be confident folk will buy that - and so he'll keep the love - otherwise there's a risk of him not doing it. And we do NOT want that. No Deal would be terrible for the country - and what's worse terrible for me personally since I've been banging on forever about how it's the ultimate Not Happening Event and a deal is therefore certain. I'd look a right plonker.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1337399601133916166

So the "huge concession" from the EU was the deal they were offering all along and BoZo just hasn't taken it

Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

All very depressing.

Gaussian said:

Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

All very depressing.

Well I had a lovely "takeaway" pint of Amstel in Newcastle City Centre last night. So there's that.

https://twitter.com/Lawforall007/status/1337353214824484867

Gaussian said:

Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

All very depressing.

The England figure masks the worsening situation in London, adjacent parts of Kent and Essex, and some of eastern England, offset by containing declines most everywhere else, particularly up North.

moonshine said:

On topic.

2020 is the year anyone paying attention realised WE ARE NOT ALONE.

I continue to be blown away how little traction has been made by the formal releases from the US Navy, statements by senior US congressmen and private sector advisors, as well as convincing eye witness testimony from Top Gun pilots.

That just takes my breath away.

BluestBlue said:

kinabalu said:

BluestBlue said:

Anabobazina said:

kinabalu said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Drakeford sinking without trace as he announces the disaster that is covid in Wales

All outdoor attractions across Wales to close

He has announced that it is inevitable to move to alert 4 after Christmas unless everyone reduces the number of people we see or mix with

Blaming the public is not a good look

Yet it's one popular with yourself and the other PB moralisers, who call for a reporter's career to be destroyed because she broke covid rules.

Funny old world.

Yes. And often - although not in Big G's case tbf - the very same people who were almost horizontally relaxed about the Dominic "My rules don't apply to me" Cummings affair.

This cost quite a few posters their integrity for 24 hours the other day. 6 of them in fact.

I was remarkably consistent – I thought the Cummings thing was trivial guff (and said so repeatedly on here); ditto Kay Burley et al.

What isn't trivial is the spinecrawling authoritarian moralising from PBers – asking that a woman's livelihood be removed because she had three mates over for drinks.

Except that she enthusiastically participated in exactly that kind of spine-crawling authoritarian moralizing, demanding that other people's livelihoods be removed for similarly trivial offences. That she's finally getting a taste of her own medicine is nothing more than natural justice.

NO. You cannot comment on this. Integrity free zone. Please contact mods and delete your comment.

Lol - aren't the 24 hours up yet?

Philip's are, yes. But you've only just gone in.

Not in solitary though. Felix is there doing a 72 stretch.

IanB2 said:

Gaussian said:

Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

All very depressing.

The England figure masks the worsening situation in London, adjacent parts of Kent and Essex, and some of eastern England, offset by containing declines most everywhere else, particularly up North.

Yep. The particular area for concern is now a big square box around London. The most populated bit of England.
Wonder if we are not going to look back and regret not just going for 2 more weeks?

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1337402218463563781

Starmer still hasn't regained those three or four points since the start of the Corbyn dispute, but I expect the Tories' lead will soon be overtaken by events, and that will look like nothng.

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1337383070769557504

Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.

Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved

kinabalu said:

WhisperingOracle said:

https://twitter.com/Lawforall007/status/1337353214824484867

Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.

Scandalous to even think such things, especially when central Brexit figures like Farage have had nothing whatsoever to do with events like that in the past, and there's no been record of corruption in the current government, either. Take a cold shower and think moral thoughts !

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1337383070769557504

Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.

Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved

Great, so can we please now get the men in grey suits to chuck him out this afternoon and install someone capable of getting a deal sorted.

Gallowgate said:

Gaussian said:

Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

All very depressing.

Well I had a lovely "takeaway" pint of Amstel in Newcastle City Centre last night. So there's that.

Would definitely settle for a takeaway pint. Since March I've actually only been to a bar once and there's nothing like a draught pint.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1337402218463563781

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=37&LIB=8&Brexit=1&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.3&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=5.7&SCOTBrexit=1&SCOTGreen=1.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=51.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019

Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament with Tories on 312, Labour on 250, the SNP on 58, the LDs on 7, the DUP on 8 and PC on 4 and the SDLP on 2 and the Greens and Alliance each on 1.

So the Tories and DUP = 320 but Labour + SNP + LDs + PC + Greens + SDLP = 322, so Starmer would still end up PM

paulyork64 said:

moonshine said:

On topic.

2020 is the year anyone paying attention realised WE ARE NOT ALONE.

I continue to be blown away how little traction has been made by the formal releases from the US Navy, statements by senior US congressmen and private sector advisors, as well as convincing eye witness testimony from Top Gun pilots.

That just takes my breath away.

You’re ego is writing cheques your body can’t cash

kinabalu said:

WhisperingOracle said:

https://twitter.com/Lawforall007/status/1337353214824484867

Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.

I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1337407090231545856

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1337383070769557504

Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.

Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved

The first point is extremely faint praise. Even Theresa May conducting a pathetic election campaign managed to beat Corbyn.

Just!

DougSeal said:

kinabalu said:

WhisperingOracle said:

https://twitter.com/Lawforall007/status/1337353214824484867

Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.

I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.

However, their investment in the original Brexit result is already even better-documented. If I'm not very much mistaken, Crispin Odey is one those who has been quite happy to go public with his own strategy, for instance.

https://twitter.com/v_j_freeman/status/1337382530237009921

WhisperingOracle said:

DougSeal said:

kinabalu said:

WhisperingOracle said:

https://twitter.com/Lawforall007/status/1337353214824484867

Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.

I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.

However, their investment in the original Brexit result is already even better documented.

And also typically a load of bollocks.

Hedge funds have investments is not news. They always do. It would more be news if they didn't.

RH1992 said:

NerysHughes said:

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

Gaussian said:

Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

All very depressing.

Terrible figures for Drakeford and Wales, London I expect is heading for Tier 3 along with Essex, Manchester will probably move down to Tier 2

Not great in NI either considering they are loosening today.
2 weeks just does not work.
4 does, but only marginally, and not for very long.
It is a long distance race, not a 400 m.
Any politician, of any stripe, claiming otherwise is dissembling at best. The North is falling now after around 3 months. Just like the first wave.

At least we are now vaccinating those most at risk. I still cant't believe other countries are not doing this.

It won't be long before other countries follow. For us it was just because all the cards fell in the right places. We backed most of the right vaccines that were ready soonest and our regulatory authority was well placed to approve it quickly.

It's more than just luck since our team which was much maligned by the opposition was getting praise from anyone sensible in backing all the leading contenders (except Moderna which are contractually obliged to only supply the USA until March so it was futile to back them).

Stuartinromford said:

Cyclefree said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1337399601133916166

So the "huge concession" from the EU was the deal they were offering all along and BoZo just hasn't taken it

I think the Tories don’t really want a deal at all. They have convinced themselves that any restraint - even as a result of an agreement freely entered into - is intolerable. They have come to a belief that sovereignty means being able to do exactly what you want with no adverse consequences whatsoever. They believe that the EU is some sort of evil monster out to get them. So why enter into a deal at all?

And the enthusiastic way in which they all agreed to tear up an agreement they signed up for shows that they don’t really believe in agreements at all.

The logic of their own beliefs pushes them to a No Deal / with one bound we are free result. And I think that is where we will end up.

I hope not. But I fear it. The Tory party has been driven mad by a concept they simply do not understand. It is a shame for the rest of us though who have to face the real world consequences of this obsession.

Trouble is that I can fully understand why Boris and the Brexiteers don't want to sign a deal. It means acknowledging the gap between dreams and reality.

But that doesn't alter the need to sign a deal.

There's a Rolling Stones song which sums up the issue. Let's hope it isn't "Out of Time".

Quickly followed by 'You Can't Always Get What You Want'

Razedabode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FWIW - and I'm giving a massive hostage to fortune here - in contrast to most of the Twitterati, I think that the chances of getting a deal in the next couple of days have improved quite a lot, and it will probably happen.

My reasoning is that the excuses Boris is giving for not signing up are so fantastical that they won't serve as an excuse for No Deal. Today he's repeated this nonsense:

Unfortunately at the moment, as you know, there are two key things where we just can’t seem to make progress and that’s this kind of ratchet clause they’ve got in to keep the UK locked in to whatever they want to do in terms of legislation, which obviously doesn’t work.

We know that is nonsense, he knows it is nonsense, so why is he saying it? If it's to give himself an excuse to 'walk away' and blame the EU, then it's a jolly feeble one. What happens when the EU publish their proposed text?

If Boris really wants an excuse to walk out, he could use fish, which no-one understands and where the EU position can easily be portrayed as unreasonable.

So it looks to me as though he's erecting a massive straw dragon which he can heroically slay.

Fingers crossed that I'm right!

I think you are probably right. Although it is possible that Johnson simply doesn't understand the EU's position on LPF.

It's been spelled out very clearly today by Ursula von der Leyen.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1337346409054474253

Yes, it's a huge concession.

Of course it is.

We win. Great deal coming.

To be honest I just want a deal and everyone wins by moving on in an amicable manner

What Johnson has just said- i.e. we must follow EU standards etc- seems to be totally at odds with what Ursela just said at that EU conference. So it's all just bluff and bluster.

If the UK doesn't go for a deal now - it's because it never wanted one. And the fallout of that is on Johnson

Yep. To choose stiff general tariffs now over the possibility of selective tariffs in the medium to long future is on the face of it utterly crazy. I was tossing and turning most of the night trying to come up with a valid reason why Johnson might do it. Why he might No Deal. I generated three, which I’d like to share to see if people think they are feasible – I don’t, hence why I’m so confident of a deal – or if they can spot any I’ve missed. They are as follows -

(1) He thinks that a period of No Deal will drive the EU back to the negotiating table ready to do a deal which does NOT protect their LPF.

(2) He is planning a big bout of regulation slashing and/or state aid in the short term which he knows will trigger sanctions under the deal and so figures we’re better off just getting on with it from right outside.

(3) He fears that if he does a deal on LPF it will trigger a Con rebellion and he’ll have to rely on Labour votes to get it through. This being a “Mrs May” look which, if combined with a loss of love amongst the grass roots, could threaten his position, even see him ousted next year.

What do you guys think?

(Number 3 is imo the best although I don’t buy it myself. But of course if a plugged in Tory member such as @HYUFD thinks otherwise I will definitely give it further thought.)

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1337402218463563781

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=37&LIB=8&Brexit=1&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.3&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=5.7&SCOTBrexit=1&SCOTGreen=1.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=51.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019

Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament with Tories on 312, Labour on 250, the SNP on 58, the LDs on 7, the DUP on 8 and PC on 4 and the SDLP on 2 and the Greens and Alliance each on 1.

So the Tories and DUP = 320 but Labour + SNP + LDs + PC + Greens + SDLP = 322, so Starmer would still end up PM

Johnson should give the SNP that independence vote

WhisperingOracle said:

Philip_Thompson said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DougSeal said:

kinabalu said:

WhisperingOracle said:

https://twitter.com/Lawforall007/status/1337353214824484867

Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.

I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.

However, their investment in the original Brexit result is already even better documented.

And also typically a load of bollocks.

Hedge funds have investments is not news. They always do. It would more be news if they didn't.

I see. Odey, for instance, is still donating to the Tories in 2020, IIRC, having been one of the most prolific Vote Leave donors four years back.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-donor-crispin-odey-eyes-brexit-jackpot-with-300m-bet-against-british-firms-0lwjbnqsn

Yes and your point is?

Hedge funds always have funds and positions. It doesn't mean a fraction of what ignorant reporters tend to think they mean. Typically reports like this concentrate solely on what the fund is shorting without looking at what they're backing which is to entirely misunderstand how hedge funds work.

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

If this deal is done, can we bet on how many months later Boris tells us that it is unacceptable in some way and that we have to breach it?

Nah, if Boris puts pen to paper his consistent line will that this is the most splendiferous deal since the Peace of Callias, or something.

This is the bit I don't get, Boris' talent is selling horseshit as gold.

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1337410918569926657?s=20

HYUFD said:

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1337383070769557504

Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.

Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved

The first point is extremely faint praise. Even Theresa May conducting a pathetic election campaign managed to beat Corbyn.

May lost her majority and failed to deliver Brexit, Boris won a Tory majority of 80 and delivered Brexit last January

Are you seriously trying to claim that Theresa May did not beat Corbyn in the 2017 GE?