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In other news – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited December 2020 in General
imageIn other news – politicalbetting.com

What important news has slipped by barely noticed recently?

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    1st
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    That will do me for this morning
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882
    First, like the chimpanzee getting a banana because its mate is the boss male.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,548
    FPT
    RochdalePioneers said:

    There is little point consumers stockpiling. The UK is currently drowning in food as it is the week before Christmas. Pox restrictions mean more of it than ever will be chucked away - the Turkey growers have been pleading for people to buy the huge Turkeys they have regardless of how many people are allowed to come for dinner. Last few years supermarkets have literally been giving the stuff away on Boxing Day. So we're awash - for now. None of it will keep.

    So it doesn't have enough life on it to be stockpiled, and there's no warehouse space to put it even if it did. So why bother?

    RP, are you seeing any sign of the latest Bird Flu outbreaks affecting poultry supply?

    For those of you who aren't aware, bird flu is back big time. Indeed from 14th December everyone who keeps poultry must keep the birds inside until further notice.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Never sell Shell, not.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Really quite disappointing that the planet continued to warm during Covid. I find it hard to imagine us managing to reduce output, manufacturing and travel as much as it did for some considerable time to come. Maybe not worked through yet? I thought that the lack of flights was supposed to be having a noticeable effect for a start.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    Its quite technical and its future effect may be uncertain but it is evidence that the EU has not yet given up on these negotiations. That is to be welcomed. We should respond in kind.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    DavidL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    Its quite technical and its future effect may be uncertain but it is evidence that the EU has not yet given up on these negotiations. That is to be welcomed. We should respond in kind.
    Agreed, provided they move on fish too (into the 30-40% range) then the UK should wrap this up today.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    DavidL said:

    Really quite disappointing that the planet continued to warm during Covid. I find it hard to imagine us managing to reduce output, manufacturing and travel as much as it did for some considerable time to come. Maybe not worked through yet? I thought that the lack of flights was supposed to be having a noticeable effect for a start.

    Why wouldn't the planet continue to warm? We are still pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, even if at a slightly slower rate than last year. Even if we manage to stop increasing greenhouse gases entirely, it's still quite likely the planet will continue to warm because of feebacks.
    What we are doing is so unbelievably reckless, the current prevailing philosophy that making a fast buck is the best thing anyone do will in the future be seen as the most destructive in human history.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,429
    DavidL said:

    Really quite disappointing that the planet continued to warm during Covid. I find it hard to imagine us managing to reduce output, manufacturing and travel as much as it did for some considerable time to come. Maybe not worked through yet? I thought that the lack of flights was supposed to be having a noticeable effect for a start.

    The planet would continue to warm for many years even if we stopped emissions completely. There's a lot of inertia in the system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128
    edited December 2020
    While climate change obviously is concerning globally (although the UK is leading on the switch to renewables from fossil fuels), it does make heatwaves in the UK 30 times more likely in summer and we will have warmer albeit wetter winters, so means you can save on heating costs and summer trips to Spain and you may even get some sun on your post Brexit summer holidays in Blackpool, Margate and Southend!
    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/effects-of-climate-change
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,429
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    Its quite technical and its future effect may be uncertain but it is evidence that the EU has not yet given up on these negotiations. That is to be welcomed. We should respond in kind.
    Agreed, provided they move on fish too (into the 30-40% range) then the UK should wrap this up today.
    I would not want our deal to fall through because we are not willing to extend any transition period for fish by a few years or argue about the extent of the increase. I think our pelagic fleet could catch more than it does now but it would take time for us to rebuild capacity in any event.

    Whilst I think that the consequences of no deal are being massively overstated I have absolutely no desire at all to test that hypothesis.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    That's answered in the tweets above and in the information I posted in the previous thread.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    DavidL said:

    Really quite disappointing that the planet continued to warm during Covid. I find it hard to imagine us managing to reduce output, manufacturing and travel as much as it did for some considerable time to come. Maybe not worked through yet? I thought that the lack of flights was supposed to be having a noticeable effect for a start.

    Although temperatures will lag over years, the global C02 levels will respond quickly to significant global change, certainly after 6 months. The Bench mark for global CO2 is at Mauna Loa in Hawaii and unfortunately looing at this graph there is no visible change in the anual increase. Perhaps a very small down tick in spring 2020.
    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    edited December 2020
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    DavidL said:

    Really quite disappointing that the planet continued to warm during Covid. I find it hard to imagine us managing to reduce output, manufacturing and travel as much as it did for some considerable time to come. Maybe not worked through yet? I thought that the lack of flights was supposed to be having a noticeable effect for a start.

    The planet would continue to warm for many years even if we stopped emissions completely. There's a lot of inertia in the system.
    Yes, that's what I thought.

    Edit, a good simple example is the accelerated heating of the artic. This is because a lot of it is a lot less white and reflective than it used to be resulting in more heat absorption and a somewhat negative spiral that is hard to break once it gets going.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    edited December 2020
    DavidL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    Its quite technical and its future effect may be uncertain but it is evidence that the EU has not yet given up on these negotiations. That is to be welcomed. We should respond in kind.
    Agreed, provided they move on fish too (into the 30-40% range) then the UK should wrap this up today.
    I would not want our deal to fall through because we are not willing to extend any transition period for fish by a few years or argue about the extent of the increase. I think our pelagic fleet could catch more than it does now but it would take time for us to rebuild capacity in any event.

    Whilst I think that the consequences of no deal are being massively overstated I have absolutely no desire at all to test that hypothesis.
    One thing that never seems to get much mention is that FTAs aren't forever. It will have a termination clause, much the same way EU membership did. So if it turns out not to work for either side, they can still walk away at that point, going to the very same WTO rules that both sides are threatening each other with right now.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,429
    Casino_Royale said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    That's answered in the tweets above and in the information I posted in the previous thread.
    Not really. What, exactly, is new?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    Previously the EU were suggesting "lightning" tariffs on the UK if we didn't adopt their laws, without arbitration, which was not reciprocal.

    VDL seems at the very least to be talking about reciprocity and seems to be saying that they are moving away from the lightning tariffs idea.

    But I'm not counting chickens that they've actually moved, or if they're just putting lipstick on a pig. Devil is in the details.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Good manufacturing news today,

    Britishvolt has confirmed Blyth in Northumberland as its chosen location for a new, £2.6 billion gigaplant that’s intended to boost battery supply ahead of a surge in electric vehicle demand. The plant, which will be similar to the one built by Tesla in the US, comes as part of the UK Government’s low carbon transport project fund, which includes investment in battery cell production. Britishvolt is heading up the scheme, and forecasts 3,000 highly skilled new jobs and 5,000 more in the wider supply chain

    https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-ev/--163-2-6bn-gigafactory-planned-for-blyth/43495
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    That's answered in the tweets above and in the information I posted in the previous thread.
    Not really. What, exactly, is new?
    If you can't read and understand them then I really can't help you.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Gaussian said:

    DavidL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    DavidL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    Its quite technical and its future effect may be uncertain but it is evidence that the EU has not yet given up on these negotiations. That is to be welcomed. We should respond in kind.
    Agreed, provided they move on fish too (into the 30-40% range) then the UK should wrap this up today.
    I would not want our deal to fall through because we are not willing to extend any transition period for fish by a few years or argue about the extent of the increase. I think our pelagic fleet could catch more than it does now but it would take time for us to rebuild capacity in any event.

    Whilst I think that the consequences of no deal are being massively overstated I have absolutely no desire at all to test that hypothesis.
    One thing that never seem to get much mention is that FTAs aren't forever. It will have a termination clause, much the same way EU membership did. So if it turns out not to work for either side, they can still walk away at that point, going to the very same WTO rules that both sides are threatening each other with right now.
    I mention it quite frequently. What I have said previously is that the tone of our future EU relationship is being set and that both parties should bear that in mind. It is likely to be more important in even the medium term than getting one over the other party right now. We are supposed to be friends for goodness sake and we will continue to have a very wide range of common interests.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    There is little point consumers stockpiling. The UK is currently drowning in food as it is the week before Christmas. Pox restrictions mean more of it than ever will be chucked away - the Turkey growers have been pleading for people to buy the huge Turkeys they have regardless of how many people are allowed to come for dinner. Last few years supermarkets have literally been giving the stuff away on Boxing Day. So we're awash - for now. None of it will keep.

    So it doesn't have enough life on it to be stockpiled, and there's no warehouse space to put it even if it did. So why bother?

    RP, are you seeing any sign of the latest Bird Flu outbreaks affecting poultry supply?

    For those of you who aren't aware, bird flu is back big time. Indeed from 14th December everyone who keeps poultry must keep the birds inside until further notice.
    Not that I have heard though it isn't my sector. Don't forget - we import chicken. If the Bird Flu is an issue in Thailand or Brazil that would be more of an issue.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Casino_Royale said:


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I replied on the last thread.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    Previously the EU were suggesting "lightning" tariffs on the UK if we didn't adopt their laws, without arbitration, which was not reciprocal.

    VDL seems at the very least to be talking about reciprocity and seems to be saying that they are moving away from the lightning tariffs idea.

    But I'm not counting chickens that they've actually moved, or if they're just putting lipstick on a pig. Devil is in the details.
    Even if we do no deal the idea that it ends negotiations with the EU is nonsense

    Even France expects continuing discussions and I do expect a deal to happen in 2021
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    Previously the EU were suggesting "lightning" tariffs on the UK if we didn't adopt their laws, without arbitration, which was not reciprocal.

    VDL seems at the very least to be talking about reciprocity and seems to be saying that they are moving away from the lightning tariffs idea.

    But I'm not counting chickens that they've actually moved, or if they're just putting lipstick on a pig. Devil is in the details.
    Particxularly if the chooks catch the flu.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Climate is an issue and its great that we are progressing towards electrification. Would very much like a Tesla once they work out how to make them without panel gaps and trim that falls off. However, I am currently doing the man maths for a pickup truck so stuff the environment :D
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,429
    Casino_Royale said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    That's answered in the tweets above and in the information I posted in the previous thread.
    Not really. What, exactly, is new?
    If you can't read and understand them then I really can't help you.
    I can read perfectly well, but it isn't entirely clear to me from the tweets above what is now being offered that wasn't previously on offer. It evidently is clear to you, so I'd be grateful if you could briefly summarise the new offers as you see them.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Carnyx said:


    In other news, and o/t, but following on the discussion of charity of late - I made an interesting discovery yesterday. We are in the position of dealing with the estate of an elderly relative. He had several small holdings of shares.

    One was the sort of holding that is a complete pain to liquidate (the registrars in question want all executors' passports, bank account statements, grannies' birth certificates, etc. etc. or it feels like it, never mind the disproportionate fees). So we just sent the share certtificvate to Sharegift to convert to cash and pass to our favourite local charity. Had a nice note from the charity today. It turned out that Sharegift had added a big dollop extra from their own funds - apparently from the various donations from people who don't specify a charity. So in this case our fave charity (not previously designated by Sharegift) got about 50% extra - result!

    That's interesting. How does it work? How come Sharegift can sell the shares without the same hassle you would have had?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    Really quite disappointing that the planet continued to warm during Covid. I find it hard to imagine us managing to reduce output, manufacturing and travel as much as it did for some considerable time to come. Maybe not worked through yet? I thought that the lack of flights was supposed to be having a noticeable effect for a start.

    Although temperatures will lag over years, the global C02 levels will respond quickly to significant global change, certainly after 6 months. The Bench mark for global CO2 is at Mauna Loa in Hawaii and unfortunately looing at this graph there is no visible change in the anual increase. Perhaps a very small down tick in spring 2020.
    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
    Interesting and disappointing. The first time I thought that Covid was going to be serious is when the NASA image showing the collapse of Nitrous Oxide output in China was linked to on here. I was sufficiently alarmed to send it on to our pension fund managers. Its effect on the global economy seems, unfortunately, much worse than its effect on the climate.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,423
    DavidL said:

    Really quite disappointing that the planet continued to warm during Covid. I find it hard to imagine us managing to reduce output, manufacturing and travel as much as it did for some considerable time to come. Maybe not worked through yet? I thought that the lack of flights was supposed to be having a noticeable effect for a start.

    There's considerable lag in the climate system because of how long it takes the oceans to warm, so you wouldn't have expected to see any change in the temperature trajectory.

    I'm expecting to see some papers on changes in clouds due to the reduction in aviation, but I don't know if any have been published yet.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,429
    edited December 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    Previously the EU were suggesting "lightning" tariffs on the UK if we didn't adopt their laws, without arbitration, which was not reciprocal.

    VDL seems at the very least to be talking about reciprocity and seems to be saying that they are moving away from the lightning tariffs idea.

    But I'm not counting chickens that they've actually moved, or if they're just putting lipstick on a pig. Devil is in the details.
    Thanks, so no actual concessions as yet, just suggestions.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Sandpit said:

    Good manufacturing news today,

    Britishvolt has confirmed Blyth in Northumberland as its chosen location for a new, £2.6 billion gigaplant that’s intended to boost battery supply ahead of a surge in electric vehicle demand. The plant, which will be similar to the one built by Tesla in the US, comes as part of the UK Government’s low carbon transport project fund, which includes investment in battery cell production. Britishvolt is heading up the scheme, and forecasts 3,000 highly skilled new jobs and 5,000 more in the wider supply chain

    https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-ev/--163-2-6bn-gigafactory-planned-for-blyth/43495

    That is really good news and will hopefully make the UK more attractive to car manufacturers looking to retool towards electric production.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    Previously the EU were suggesting "lightning" tariffs on the UK if we didn't adopt their laws, without arbitration, which was not reciprocal.

    VDL seems at the very least to be talking about reciprocity and seems to be saying that they are moving away from the lightning tariffs idea.

    But I'm not counting chickens that they've actually moved, or if they're just putting lipstick on a pig. Devil is in the details.
    Thanks, so no actual concessions as yet, just suggestions.
    Taking her words at face value it would appear to be big concessions, possibly big enough to get a deal.

    Casino seems willing to take her words at face value. I'm not.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Sandpit said:

    Good manufacturing news today,

    Britishvolt has confirmed Blyth in Northumberland as its chosen location for a new, £2.6 billion gigaplant that’s intended to boost battery supply ahead of a surge in electric vehicle demand. The plant, which will be similar to the one built by Tesla in the US, comes as part of the UK Government’s low carbon transport project fund, which includes investment in battery cell production. Britishvolt is heading up the scheme, and forecasts 3,000 highly skilled new jobs and 5,000 more in the wider supply chain

    https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-ev/--163-2-6bn-gigafactory-planned-for-blyth/43495

    Yes big Boris has been in Blyth this morning.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    The most interesting development is that VdL is saying the UK can class EU funding as state aid which was a huge part of the state aid bust up aiui with the UK saying that regional development funding and the virus recovery fund are state aid and that the UK should be allowed to replicate both without any repercussions whole Barnier's position has been that any EU funding isn't admissable as state aid. It is *the* issue with state aid, if the EU have finally accepted that EU funding is indeed state aid then it's a huge step forwards and a huge concession on their part.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Casino_Royale said:


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I replied on the last thread.
    As did I.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    Really quite disappointing that the planet continued to warm during Covid. I find it hard to imagine us managing to reduce output, manufacturing and travel as much as it did for some considerable time to come. Maybe not worked through yet? I thought that the lack of flights was supposed to be having a noticeable effect for a start.

    Although temperatures will lag over years, the global C02 levels will respond quickly to significant global change, certainly after 6 months. The Bench mark for global CO2 is at Mauna Loa in Hawaii and unfortunately looing at this graph there is no visible change in the anual increase. Perhaps a very small down tick in spring 2020.
    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
    Interesting and disappointing. The first time I thought that Covid was going to be serious is when the NASA image showing the collapse of Nitrous Oxide output in China was linked to on here. I was sufficiently alarmed to send it on to our pension fund managers. Its effect on the global economy seems, unfortunately, much worse than its effect on the climate.
    That’s interesting. For me it was the note from OPEC at the start of Feb, suggesting that China’s demand for oil was down around 20% almost overnight.
    https://fortune.com/2020/02/04/opec-coronavirus-china-slashes-oil-imports/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    Previously the EU were suggesting "lightning" tariffs on the UK if we didn't adopt their laws, without arbitration, which was not reciprocal.

    VDL seems at the very least to be talking about reciprocity and seems to be saying that they are moving away from the lightning tariffs idea.

    But I'm not counting chickens that they've actually moved, or if they're just putting lipstick on a pig. Devil is in the details.
    Thanks, so no actual concessions as yet, just suggestions.
    Taking her words at face value it would appear to be big concessions, possibly big enough to get a deal.

    Casino seems willing to take her words at face value. I'm not.
    It's a political concession. We need to see the legal manifestation of this.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Also if the tariffs are post action arbitration it basically means the deal should be signed now. If they are still unilaterally set by the EU/UK that's a deal breaker.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    The most interesting development is that VdL is saying the UK can class EU funding as state aid which was a huge part of the state aid bust up aiui with the UK saying that regional development funding and the virus recovery fund are state aid and that the UK should be allowed to replicate both without any repercussions whole Barnier's position has been that any EU funding isn't admissable as state aid. It is *the* issue with state aid, if the EU have finally accepted that EU funding is indeed state aid then it's a huge step forwards and a huge concession on their part.

    Indeed. The EU wanted the UK to be able to reciprocate against eg French or German unilateral aid but not against EU multinational aid.

    EU multinational aid is every bit as much aid as national aid is and should be respected and reciprocated as such.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1337365135120363520?s=20
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    That's answered in the tweets above and in the information I posted in the previous thread.
    Not really. What, exactly, is new?
    If you can't read and understand them then I really can't help you.
    I can read perfectly well, but it isn't entirely clear to me from the tweets above what is now being offered that wasn't previously on offer. It evidently is clear to you, so I'd be grateful if you could briefly summarise the new offers as you see them.
    I've already done so mate as have others on this thread.

    I don't want to come across as rude but I'm not your researcher.

    If it still looks confusing may I politely suggest you read up on FT and Times articles of the last 10 days that offered an analysis of the negotiating positions and dynamics and then compare them to the position articulated today?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    The gain is primarily in Africa at the moment is it not? I believe it is assumed that their birth rates will eventually plateau just like in Europe and China.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    The most interesting development is that VdL is saying the UK can class EU funding as state aid which was a huge part of the state aid bust up aiui with the UK saying that regional development funding and the virus recovery fund are state aid and that the UK should be allowed to replicate both without any repercussions whole Barnier's position has been that any EU funding isn't admissable as state aid. It is *the* issue with state aid, if the EU have finally accepted that EU funding is indeed state aid then it's a huge step forwards and a huge concession on their part.

    Indeed. The EU wanted the UK to be able to reciprocate against eg French or German unilateral aid but not against EU multinational aid.

    EU multinational aid is every bit as much aid as national aid is and should be respected and reciprocated as such.
    Are the dominos starting to fall? Here's hoping.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    It says the annual growth rate is presently 1.05%, down from around 2%, and is expected to continue to decline, so it's getting there.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2020
    On the subject of the EU's last-minute 'concession', this article from the 2nd March explains things well:

    In practice, the EU’s position is that if the UK undercuts the EU in future, Brussels will be able to protect itself, most probably in the form of tariffs. So the decision facing the UK is whether to accept tariffs now, as a result of not reaching an agreement, or to remove tariffs on day one, but accept that some might be reinstated at some point in the future. Furthermore the risk of tariffs applying in the future would only ever become reality in the really quite unlikely event the UK significantly diverges from the EU when it comes to levels of environmental and labour protections. And while the UK would need to back down on its position that environment and labour provisions should not be covered by dispute settlement or enforceable, the government can argue that it would have to do so anyway in its trade negotiations with the United States, which, in contrast to the EU’s usual approach, includes enforceable labour and environmental provisions in its trade agreements as a matter of course.

    https://www.cer.eu/insights/future-eu-uk-relationship-and-relative-case-optimism

    Of course there has been a bit of refinement and movement by both sides since then, but the outline of the EU's position today is the same as it was then, and really isn't what Boris claimed yesterday.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Gallowgate said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    The gain is primarily in Africa at the moment is it not? I believe it is assumed that their birth rates will eventually plateau just like in Europe and China.
    Possibly but if their plateau is too high the planets Eco structure may not survive. We need the planet's population to fall by about 80m a year for the next 50 years or so.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1337367424992239617?s=20
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    It`s being reported that 14 day self-isolation is being cut to 10 days.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    MaxPB said:

    The most interesting development is that VdL is saying the UK can class EU funding as state aid which was a huge part of the state aid bust up aiui with the UK saying that regional development funding and the virus recovery fund are state aid and that the UK should be allowed to replicate both without any repercussions whole Barnier's position has been that any EU funding isn't admissable as state aid. It is *the* issue with state aid, if the EU have finally accepted that EU funding is indeed state aid then it's a huge step forwards and a huge concession on their part.

    Yes, I agree with that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Casino_Royale said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    Previously the EU were suggesting "lightning" tariffs on the UK if we didn't adopt their laws, without arbitration, which was not reciprocal.

    VDL seems at the very least to be talking about reciprocity and seems to be saying that they are moving away from the lightning tariffs idea.

    But I'm not counting chickens that they've actually moved, or if they're just putting lipstick on a pig. Devil is in the details.
    Thanks, so no actual concessions as yet, just suggestions.
    Taking her words at face value it would appear to be big concessions, possibly big enough to get a deal.

    Casino seems willing to take her words at face value. I'm not.
    It's a political concession. We need to see the legal manifestation of this.
    Casino_Royale said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - we've already established that Europhiles have a cognitive dissonance problem in accepting the EU ever makes a concession.

    But, don't take my word for it. Listen to the Dutch PM , or a neutral think thank:

    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337355556625977345?s=20


    https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1337348424082010112?s=20


    It's OK. I can wait for your gracious "my mistake", apology.

    I've no problem at all accepting that the EU sometimes makes concessions. Indeed, I'd be interested to know what concession the EU has made here. What are they now offering that they weren't previously offering ?
    Previously the EU were suggesting "lightning" tariffs on the UK if we didn't adopt their laws, without arbitration, which was not reciprocal.

    VDL seems at the very least to be talking about reciprocity and seems to be saying that they are moving away from the lightning tariffs idea.

    But I'm not counting chickens that they've actually moved, or if they're just putting lipstick on a pig. Devil is in the details.
    Thanks, so no actual concessions as yet, just suggestions.
    Taking her words at face value it would appear to be big concessions, possibly big enough to get a deal.

    Casino seems willing to take her words at face value. I'm not.
    It's a political concession. We need to see the legal manifestation of this.
    We will see. This was a good article shared here last night; https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/does-the-eu-understand-what-sovereignty-really-means-

    The EU keeps redressing the same proposals. As the article says putting a new hat on the elephant in the room and saying it's changed but not removing the elephant from the room.

    If this is a genuine move from them to remove the elephant from the room then great. If this is a new hat to put on the elephant but it is still there then absolutely no thanks.

    I won't be holding my breath that this is a real concession. But if it is followed through with legal changes then absolutely it is a key one and possibly enough.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,997
    Angela wearing the full Dr Marten in that pic?

    On my last trip abroad (Berlin) I noticed that all the cool young women were wearing Docs. I'd have a good go at arguing that the UK's greatest international cultural icon is the DM (preferably not on the foot of a soccer casual booting baws, but they all seem to go for naff trainers nowadays).
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    DavidL said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    The gain is primarily in Africa at the moment is it not? I believe it is assumed that their birth rates will eventually plateau just like in Europe and China.
    Possibly but if their plateau is too high the planets Eco structure may not survive. We need the planet's population to fall by about 80m a year for the next 50 years or so.
    Whilst true, there's nothing realistically that can be done about it. Good luck persuading Nigeria to impose a "1 child" policy.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited December 2020
    Sandpit said:

    Good manufacturing news today,

    Britishvolt has confirmed Blyth in Northumberland as its chosen location for a new, £2.6 billion gigaplant that’s intended to boost battery supply ahead of a surge in electric vehicle demand. The plant, which will be similar to the one built by Tesla in the US, comes as part of the UK Government’s low carbon transport project fund, which includes investment in battery cell production. Britishvolt is heading up the scheme, and forecasts 3,000 highly skilled new jobs and 5,000 more in the wider supply chain

    https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-ev/--163-2-6bn-gigafactory-planned-for-blyth/43495

    But, this is not such good news for perennial loser, Mark Drakeford, & his clowns in Corruption Bay

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53438992

    "Britishvolt had also been considering a Coventry site but said it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Welsh Government to build the factory in St Athan, Vale of Glamorgan."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    TheValiant said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-55249141

    This piece explains the evolving EU position. I believe it to be factually accurate but if others disagree and can provide alternative sources I would be happy to read them.
    As I understand it the EU position has evolved thus:
    1. Opening position, never going to fly: Full dynamic alignment
    2. During the summer: ratchet clause, allowing the common baseline to move up over time if both sides agree; then divergence from that by either side leads to tariff response. UK doesn't agree.
    3. Unilateral tariffs can be applied by either side if they think the other side is gaining an unfair competitive advantage. UK disagrees.
    As I understand it, what UvdL is now proposing sounds like a return to 2. Either side can diverge but face a tariff response.
    The UK position has been to agree to non-regression from current regulatory levels but to resist any attempt to tie the trading relationship to future divergence.
    Would be interested in hearing if others have a different interpretation of the facts.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1337369462551552000
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    DavidL said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    The gain is primarily in Africa at the moment is it not? I believe it is assumed that their birth rates will eventually plateau just like in Europe and China.
    Possibly but if their plateau is too high the planets Eco structure may not survive. We need the planet's population to fall by about 80m a year for the next 50 years or so.
    I don't quite follow this, as it suggests an 'optimum' level of human population, as if 3 billion is fine, but 5 billion is not, when 5 billion with a certain level of development and policy might have less impact than the 3 billion. When is the point reached of too many people? No doubt many would say we are well past that level, but what is the right level?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    DavidL said:

    TheValiant said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
    Certainly the best Dickens film adaptation. I like It's a Wonderful Life best though as far as Christmas films are concerned.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    DavidL said:

    TheValiant said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
    Watched it last night. Still cried.

    It helps that it is just one of those timeless tales with a message we can all get behind but realise we often fall short on ourselves: Don't be such a dick.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,548
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    There is little point consumers stockpiling. The UK is currently drowning in food as it is the week before Christmas. Pox restrictions mean more of it than ever will be chucked away - the Turkey growers have been pleading for people to buy the huge Turkeys they have regardless of how many people are allowed to come for dinner. Last few years supermarkets have literally been giving the stuff away on Boxing Day. So we're awash - for now. None of it will keep.

    So it doesn't have enough life on it to be stockpiled, and there's no warehouse space to put it even if it did. So why bother?

    RP, are you seeing any sign of the latest Bird Flu outbreaks affecting poultry supply?

    For those of you who aren't aware, bird flu is back big time. Indeed from 14th December everyone who keeps poultry must keep the birds inside until further notice.
    Not that I have heard though it isn't my sector. Don't forget - we import chicken. If the Bird Flu is an issue in Thailand or Brazil that would be more of an issue.
    We do import chicken but there is also a home grown supply. I know that several Turkey farms have had to cull their whole stock over the last couple of weeks. I was just wondering if that impact was being seen at the front end.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    DavidL said:

    TheValiant said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
    Everyone knows that the best Christmas film is Die Hard Arthur Christmas.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    The gain is primarily in Africa at the moment is it not? I believe it is assumed that their birth rates will eventually plateau just like in Europe and China.
    Possibly but if their plateau is too high the planets Eco structure may not survive. We need the planet's population to fall by about 80m a year for the next 50 years or so.
    I don't quite follow this, as it suggests an 'optimum' level of human population, as if 3 billion is fine, but 5 billion is not, when 5 billion with a certain level of development and policy might have less impact than the 3 billion. When is the point reached of too many people? No doubt many would say we are well past that level, but what is the right level?
    I agree. People have been making Malthusian arguments like this for centuries.

    Dealing with emissions per capita across the billions around the world is what matters, not a few millions of population change here or there.

    If we reach net zero then job done. Whether with 7 billion or 7.1 or 7.2 or 14 billion people.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    DavidL said:

    TheValiant said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
    Certainly the best Dickens film adaptation. I like It's a Wonderful Life best though as far as Christmas films are concerned.
    I like Miracle on 34th Street with Richard Attenborough.

    So many good adaptions of Dickens. The Mickey Mouse version is a pretty good introduction to Dickens too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    The gain is primarily in Africa at the moment is it not? I believe it is assumed that their birth rates will eventually plateau just like in Europe and China.
    Possibly but if their plateau is too high the planets Eco structure may not survive. We need the planet's population to fall by about 80m a year for the next 50 years or so.
    I don't quite follow this, as it suggests an 'optimum' level of human population, as if 3 billion is fine, but 5 billion is not, when 5 billion with a certain level of development and policy might have less impact than the 3 billion. When is the point reached of too many people? No doubt many would say we are well past that level, but what is the right level?
    We don't know but the evidence suggests it is significantly less than it is now. If we can reduce our carbon footprint sufficiently it may be higher than it would otherwise be but there are a lot of variables, not least the amount of space we take up both for living and feeding ourselves.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited December 2020
    Drakeford sinking without trace as he announces the disaster that is covid in Wales

    All outdoor attractions across Wales to close

    He has announced that it is inevitable to move to alert 4 after Christmas unless everyone reduces the number of people we see or mix with

    Blaming the public is not a good look
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    As Monday gets closer ... Current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.05
    Democrats 1.05
    Biden PV 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.04
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.07
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.05
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.01

    AZ Dem 1.05
    GA Dem 1.05
    MI Dem 1.05
    NV Dem 1.04
    PA Dem 1.05
    WI Dem 1.05

    Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.11
    Trump exit date 2021 1.1
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Philip_Thompson said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    DavidL said:

    TheValiant said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
    Certainly the best Dickens film adaptation. I like It's a Wonderful Life best though as far as Christmas films are concerned.
    I like Miracle on 34th Street with Richard Attenborough.

    So many good adaptions of Dickens. The Mickey Mouse version is a pretty good introduction to Dickens too.
    The Attenborough version of Miracle is superb. And a lawyer gets to be the hero-what's not to like?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    BoZo demands to speak to the manager...

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1337372376993046529
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited December 2020
    YBarddCwsc said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good manufacturing news today,

    Britishvolt has confirmed Blyth in Northumberland as its chosen location for a new, £2.6 billion gigaplant that’s intended to boost battery supply ahead of a surge in electric vehicle demand. The plant, which will be similar to the one built by Tesla in the US, comes as part of the UK Government’s low carbon transport project fund, which includes investment in battery cell production. Britishvolt is heading up the scheme, and forecasts 3,000 highly skilled new jobs and 5,000 more in the wider supply chain

    https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-ev/--163-2-6bn-gigafactory-planned-for-blyth/43495

    But, this is not such good news for perennial loser, Mark Drakeford, & his clowns in Corruption Bay

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53438992

    "Britishvolt had also been considering a Coventry site but said it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Welsh Government to build the factory in St Athan, Vale of Glamorgan."
    They could have had both Ineos and Britishvolt announce this week.

    How come the much-hailed drive to attract industry back to South Wales hasn’t materialised, despite lots of talking?

    Talking of talking, have they started digging to fix the M4 yet, or are they still thinking they don’t need to fix it?

    Maybe someone will dare to suggest, that the two things might be related...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    DavidL said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    DavidL said:

    TheValiant said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
    Certainly the best Dickens film adaptation. I like It's a Wonderful Life best though as far as Christmas films are concerned.
    I like Miracle on 34th Street with Richard Attenborough.

    So many good adaptions of Dickens. The Mickey Mouse version is a pretty good introduction to Dickens too.
    The Attenborough version of Miracle is superb. And a lawyer gets to be the hero-what's not to like?
    The lawyer being a hero. It's the least believable part of a movie where Father Christmas is real.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Gallowgate said:

    Everyone knows that the best Christmas film is Die Hard Arthur Christmas.

    The newly released Fatman is an interesting take
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,423
    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    If we need to get to net zero emissions it makes little difference how many people are on the planet. Even if you stopped all births now it would take decades to only halve the population.

    Complete red herring.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    DavidL said:

    TheValiant said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
    Certainly the best Dickens film adaptation. I like It's a Wonderful Life best though as far as Christmas films are concerned.
    I like Miracle on 34th Street with Richard Attenborough.

    So many good adaptions of Dickens. The Mickey Mouse version is a pretty good introduction to Dickens too.
    The Attenborough version of Miracle is superb. And a lawyer gets to be the hero-what's not to like?
    The lawyer being a hero. It's the least believable part of a movie where Father Christmas is real.
    Ow! That stings!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/nvonwestenholz/status/1337371063836155904?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    The gain is primarily in Africa at the moment is it not? I believe it is assumed that their birth rates will eventually plateau just like in Europe and China.
    Possibly but if their plateau is too high the planets Eco structure may not survive. We need the planet's population to fall by about 80m a year for the next 50 years or so.
    I don't quite follow this, as it suggests an 'optimum' level of human population, as if 3 billion is fine, but 5 billion is not, when 5 billion with a certain level of development and policy might have less impact than the 3 billion. When is the point reached of too many people? No doubt many would say we are well past that level, but what is the right level?
    We don't know but the evidence suggests it is significantly less than it is now. If we can reduce our carbon footprint sufficiently it may be higher than it would otherwise be but there are a lot of variables, not least the amount of space we take up both for living and feeding ourselves.
    I disagree. Humanity takes up still only a tiny percent of the earth's surface, we over exaggerate our influence still.

    To take an extreme hypothetical if you exclude all the earth's water, deserts (which are actually lived on), mountains and rainforest ... And if the remainer of the earth had England's population density then the world could have a population of about 20 billion people. About three times current figures. Without any change in technologies etc

    What matters is what we as people do and consumer, not so much how many of us there are. If all of us are consuming more than can be handled then that is bad, if we reach neutrality then our influence is cancelled out.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    We really havent taken full advantage of covid have we.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882
    Sandpit said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good manufacturing news today,

    Britishvolt has confirmed Blyth in Northumberland as its chosen location for a new, £2.6 billion gigaplant that’s intended to boost battery supply ahead of a surge in electric vehicle demand. The plant, which will be similar to the one built by Tesla in the US, comes as part of the UK Government’s low carbon transport project fund, which includes investment in battery cell production. Britishvolt is heading up the scheme, and forecasts 3,000 highly skilled new jobs and 5,000 more in the wider supply chain

    https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-ev/--163-2-6bn-gigafactory-planned-for-blyth/43495

    But, this is not such good news for perennial loser, Mark Drakeford, & his clowns in Corruption Bay

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53438992

    "Britishvolt had also been considering a Coventry site but said it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Welsh Government to build the factory in St Athan, Vale of Glamorgan."
    They could have had both Ineos and Britishvolt announce this week.

    How come the much-hailed drive to attract industry back to South Wales hasn’t materialised, despite lots of talking?

    Talking of talking, have they started digging to fix the M4 yet, or are they still thinking they don’t need to fix it?

    Maybe someone will dare to suggest, that the two things might be related...
    Also failure to electrify the railways, perhaps (certainly for self-loading cargo, though IIRC there are gaps in provision for freight trains anyway elsewhere). If you are worried about Brexity transport then Blyth or Bavaria are better than stuck out in Glamorgan.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    paulyork64 said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    We really havent taken full advantage of covid have we.
    Trump has done his best, in fairness.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882
    Gallowgate said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good manufacturing news today,

    Britishvolt has confirmed Blyth in Northumberland as its chosen location for a new, £2.6 billion gigaplant that’s intended to boost battery supply ahead of a surge in electric vehicle demand. The plant, which will be similar to the one built by Tesla in the US, comes as part of the UK Government’s low carbon transport project fund, which includes investment in battery cell production. Britishvolt is heading up the scheme, and forecasts 3,000 highly skilled new jobs and 5,000 more in the wider supply chain

    https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-ev/--163-2-6bn-gigafactory-planned-for-blyth/43495

    Yes big Boris has been in Blyth this morning.
    You'd think he had more urgent things to do than prance around in a gilet jaune.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1337374257307918338
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    I know that several Turkey farms have had to cull their whole stock over the last couple of weeks. I was just wondering if that impact was being seen at the front end.

    If the farm I ordered my turkey from has to cull that completely screws my stockpiling plans for early January...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo demands to speak to the manager...

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1337372376993046529

    It is pigheaded obstinacy from the EU not to let Boris speak to national leaders to find a resolution to their concerns, without giving VDL a unilateral mandate to make concessions.

    Negotiations need to happen between the people in charge. If that's VDL in charge then fine let her negotiate and her delegate in Barnier. But if Macron etc are in charge then they should be talking themselves.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    I am hopeful that government focus on Blyth will lead (central funding permitting) to a Tyne and Wear Metro extension to the town and to South Northumberland generally.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Listening to Drakeford covid in Wales is in crisis and GPS are demanding a full lockdown now

    He is refusing to implement it until after Christmas and to be honest he is wrong and is going to see the anger of the Welsh people in the New Year as more lives are lost

    The stupid thing is that an immediate lockdown now would most certainly be backed by the majority and is the right thing to do
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Barnier is in charge

    BoZo still hasn't figured out how the EU works...

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1337374641799778306
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Gallowgate said:

    I am hopeful that government focus on Blyth will lead (central funding permitting) to a Tyne and Wear Metro extension to the town and to South Northumberland generally.

    So is HMG good for the NE
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2020
    DavidL said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    DavidL said:

    TheValiant said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
    Certainly the best Dickens film adaptation. I like It's a Wonderful Life best though as far as Christmas films are concerned.
    I like Miracle on 34th Street with Richard Attenborough.

    So many good adaptions of Dickens. The Mickey Mouse version is a pretty good introduction to Dickens too.
    The Attenborough version of Miracle is superb. And a lawyer gets to be the hero-what's not to like?
    Though even then the lawyer would have lost, it was Mara Wilson that saved the day in that movie in the end.

    I swear she was in every big movie of my childhood.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/sallylockwood/status/1337376011005157376
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,429
    Philip_Thompson said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DavidL said:

    Of course the major problem with climate change is shown by a rather less visited Worldometer page: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Despite Covid the world population is edging up to a gain of 80m this year. I do not think we can achieve the kind of reductions in gas emissions etc we need until we reverse this.

    The gain is primarily in Africa at the moment is it not? I believe it is assumed that their birth rates will eventually plateau just like in Europe and China.
    Possibly but if their plateau is too high the planets Eco structure may not survive. We need the planet's population to fall by about 80m a year for the next 50 years or so.
    I don't quite follow this, as it suggests an 'optimum' level of human population, as if 3 billion is fine, but 5 billion is not, when 5 billion with a certain level of development and policy might have less impact than the 3 billion. When is the point reached of too many people? No doubt many would say we are well past that level, but what is the right level?
    We don't know but the evidence suggests it is significantly less than it is now. If we can reduce our carbon footprint sufficiently it may be higher than it would otherwise be but there are a lot of variables, not least the amount of space we take up both for living and feeding ourselves.
    I disagree. Humanity takes up still only a tiny percent of the earth's surface, we over exaggerate our influence still.

    To take an extreme hypothetical if you exclude all the earth's water, deserts (which are actually lived on), mountains and rainforest ... And if the remainer of the earth had England's population density then the world could have a population of about 20 billion people. About three times current figures. Without any change in technologies etc

    What matters is what we as people do and consumer, not so much how many of us there are. If all of us are consuming more than can be handled then that is bad, if we reach neutrality then our influence is cancelled out.
    Indeed. Currently 1 PB frequent flyer ≈ 100 Bangladeshi peasants in terms of energy usage (as a proxy for resources in general), so there is certainly scope for changes in consumption habits.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    When cars go all electric, are HGVs still going to be diesel for the foreseeable? With refuelling infrastructure to match.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/stuartlauscmp/status/1337345392044695554
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Carnyx said:


    In other news, and o/t, but following on the discussion of charity of late - I made an interesting discovery yesterday. We are in the position of dealing with the estate of an elderly relative. He had several small holdings of shares.

    One was the sort of holding that is a complete pain to liquidate (the registrars in question want all executors' passports, bank account statements, grannies' birth certificates, etc. etc. or it feels like it, never mind the disproportionate fees). So we just sent the share certtificvate to Sharegift to convert to cash and pass to our favourite local charity. Had a nice note from the charity today. It turned out that Sharegift had added a big dollop extra from their own funds - apparently from the various donations from people who don't specify a charity. So in this case our fave charity (not previously designated by Sharegift) got about 50% extra - result!

    That's interesting. How does it work? How come Sharegift can sell the shares without the same hassle you would have had?
    AIUI, they save them up and then sell them in bigger lumps. So for instance if you give them Granny's 300 or whatever the allocation was of British Gas shares from Sid, they add them to the others they get from other folk and every now and then sell 10,000 or whatever. That's one efficiency. Plus also there is a second efficiency in that they can deal pronto with the various registrars without having to prove who they are every single time. I haven't looked into it in detail to see if there are other efficiencies. But even having an easy way to get rid of really annoying stuff is in itself an efficiency.

    Of course the companies and their registrars etc love it as it helps get rids of a lot of pesky little holdings - they often hint you might like to sign over your shares. Likewise solicitors etc.

    Doesn't have to be small holdings that you give, but either way it is a perfectly valid donation for IHT or income tax/CGT purposes.

    http://www.sharegift.org/
This discussion has been closed.