This is from a couple of hours ago on the Guardian Live Blog:
"The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished. The prime minister’s spokesman did not deny the Reuters report saying that Boris Johnson was rebuffed when he tried to get the EU to agree to Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron getting involved in the trade talks.
The spokesman also rejected suggestions that Ursula von der Leyen’s comment about sovereignty this morning amounted to anything significant. He said: I would say there isn’t anything new here, because they still say they would adapt the conditions they place on us for access, and our position on sovereignty remains unchanged."
Well, that clears that up then. Large slices of humble pie for Casino_Royale and MaxPB, I think!
Not really - they correctly identified that von der Leyen was saying something very different about the EU's position to the version of that position the UK government had been insisting was the case. What's happened now is that the UK government has somewhat shifted the goalposts. The EU should not be able to adapt the conditions they place on the UK for access looks like the new line. This is not what has been said previously. On that basis it does look like the government is actively seeking a no deal outcome.
As we speak I still think a deal is coming but assuming otherwise - why (iyo) will Johnson choose the No Deal & WTO terms option?
'No Surrender! No Surrender! No Surrender to the EU!'
Basically Boris Johnson has given Northern Ireland all the best of EU membership at the cost of making GB to NI and NI to GB trade much more difficult.
And pissed off Sammy Wilson which would be icing on any cake, possessed and/or eaten (that's enough cake-ed)
This is from a couple of hours ago on the Guardian Live Blog:
"The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished. The prime minister’s spokesman did not deny the Reuters report saying that Boris Johnson was rebuffed when he tried to get the EU to agree to Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron getting involved in the trade talks.
The spokesman also rejected suggestions that Ursula von der Leyen’s comment about sovereignty this morning amounted to anything significant. He said: I would say there isn’t anything new here, because they still say they would adapt the conditions they place on us for access, and our position on sovereignty remains unchanged."
And that is the heart of it. The Tories want sovereignty for Britain. But do not want it for anyone else.
It is truly a stupid child’s view of the world.
That's a total misrepresentation or misunderstanding of the facts.
You seem to want to negotiate with the constituent parts of a trading group that agrees deals as a group. As is set out in their laws. What is that if not an interference in their sovereignty ?
It is sanity. If you actually want to find a compromise then getting the key stakeholders into the same room is rational.
They can still agree or disagree as a group but that agreement can be facilitated by finding solutions to the concerns of the group with some of those members.
However wanting to do something and compelling something are two very different matters. It isn't interfering in their sovereignty since they retain the decision. Suggesting something and compelling something are two very different outcomes. We aren't compelling them to have bilateral talks but facilitating that, if they agree to go down that path which is sensible, is a sensible way to find a compromise.
Might the explanation be for what is going on that the ERG group won't in reality accept any kind of deal and that Boris is unwilling or feels unable to stand up to them?
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
This is from a couple of hours ago on the Guardian Live Blog:
"The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished. The prime minister’s spokesman did not deny the Reuters report saying that Boris Johnson was rebuffed when he tried to get the EU to agree to Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron getting involved in the trade talks.
The spokesman also rejected suggestions that Ursula von der Leyen’s comment about sovereignty this morning amounted to anything significant. He said: I would say there isn’t anything new here, because they still say they would adapt the conditions they place on us for access, and our position on sovereignty remains unchanged."
Well, that clears that up then. Large slices of humble pie for Casino_Royale and MaxPB, I think!
Not really - they correctly identified that von der Leyen was saying something very different about the EU's position to the version of that position the UK government had been insisting was the case. What's happened now is that the UK government has somewhat shifted the goalposts. The EU should not be able to adapt the conditions they place on the UK for access looks like the new line. This is not what has been said previously. On that basis it does look like the government is actively seeking a no deal outcome.
As we speak I still think a deal is coming but assuming otherwise - why (iyo) will Johnson choose the No Deal & WTO terms option?
Party before country.
Self before party.
If it comes to it, now before tomorrow, I'd have said.
The sugar rush of the ultimate Sticking It To The Euro Man, followed by the long hangover of trying to make it work afterwards.
If my understanding of that hangover is right, then it could destroy Johnson's and the Conservative Party's reputation for years.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the highest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
The thing is if, say, Merkel, has a private chat at this point of the negotiations with Johnson, then the leaders of all the other EU countries would (rightly) also want to have their own private negotiations.
Plus, what would the point be? Nobody can trust pants-on-fire Johnson as far as they can throw him, and his grasp of detail is famously crap.
There was a time for individual chats earlier this year. As you say, there is now little or no point to such an exercise.
Why has a PM with a majority of 80 left the whole thing until two minutes to midnight ?
Because that's the nature of the beast we are dealing with.
Might the explanation be for what is going on that the ERG group won't in reality accept any kind of deal and that Boris is unwilling or feels unable to stand up to them?
I think that Johnson has realized that even a zero-tariff zero-quota FTA isn't going to cut it. It's the reimposition of border checks on a previously frictionless border that will kill the British economy, not the tariffs or quotas. Better to go for the full no-deal then and put the blame on the EU. He can hardly do that if the EU agree to his demands!
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the highest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
Thank you for your concession that Brexit is insanity.
'No Surrender! No Surrender! No Surrender to the EU!'
Basically Boris Johnson has given Northern Ireland all the best of EU membership at the cost of making GB to NI and NI to GB trade much more difficult.
And pissed off Sammy Wilson which would be icing on any cake, possessed and/or eaten (that's enough cake-ed)
One of the few pleasures from this Brexit saga is seeing the DUP shit the bed and now regretting vetoing Mrs May's deal.
Might the explanation be for what is going on that the ERG group won't in reality accept any kind of deal and that Boris is unwilling or feels unable to stand up to them?
Yes, but keeping them onside with no deal only works until January 1st
This is from a couple of hours ago on the Guardian Live Blog:
"The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished. The prime minister’s spokesman did not deny the Reuters report saying that Boris Johnson was rebuffed when he tried to get the EU to agree to Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron getting involved in the trade talks.
The spokesman also rejected suggestions that Ursula von der Leyen’s comment about sovereignty this morning amounted to anything significant. He said: I would say there isn’t anything new here, because they still say they would adapt the conditions they place on us for access, and our position on sovereignty remains unchanged."
Well, that clears that up then. Large slices of humble pie for Casino_Royale and MaxPB, I think!
Not really - they correctly identified that von der Leyen was saying something very different about the EU's position to the version of that position the UK government had been insisting was the case. What's happened now is that the UK government has somewhat shifted the goalposts. The EU should not be able to adapt the conditions they place on the UK for access looks like the new line. This is not what has been said previously. On that basis it does look like the government is actively seeking a no deal outcome.
As we speak I still think a deal is coming but assuming otherwise - why (iyo) will Johnson choose the No Deal & WTO terms option?
Party before country.
Meaning that he judges he and the Tory party's political prospects to be better in the event of a chaotic and economically damaging switch from frictionless trade to basic WTO terms with our biggest market, plus the admin and political challenge of having NI under a completely different regulatory regime.
I can't see it myself. If this is the judgement he must have great faith in "values" and culture war issues continuing to dominate our politics. That's the only way it makes sense to me.
The thing is if, say, Merkel, has a private chat at this point of the negotiations with Johnson, then the leaders of all the other EU countries would (rightly) also want to have their own private negotiations.
Plus, what would the point be? Nobody can trust pants-on-fire Johnson as far as they can throw him, and his grasp of detail is famously crap.
There was a time for individual chats earlier this year. As you say, there is now little or no point to such an exercise.
Why has a PM with a majority of 80 left the whole thing until two minutes to midnight ?
Because that's the nature of the beast we are dealing with.
He's a beast alright. Johnson does need to lose some weight as well as those photos last night show.
Ok. But he must think we his people will love it too. Or at least that most of his Leaver base plus a fair chunk of others will.
Do you think he genuinely believes that?
He was elected PM with a huge majority. Why would he not think his people love him?
Yes he's in his safe space so why would he care about anything else. The election is not until 2024.
I imagine that whenever he gets flashes of "oh shit" when he contemplates no deal he is instantly soothed by those around him who tell him not to worry. For any number of reasons but we will have a Conservative govt for the next three-odd years so it could be altruism or otherwise by his colleagues.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the highest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
Thank you for your concession that Brexit is insanity.
Might the explanation be for what is going on that the ERG group won't in reality accept any kind of deal and that Boris is unwilling or feels unable to stand up to them?
I think that Johnson has realized that even a zero-tariff zero-quota FTA isn't going to cut it. It's the reimposition of border checks on a previously frictionless border that will kill the British economy, not the tariffs or quotas. Better to go for the full no-deal then and put the blame on the EU. He can hardly do that if the EU agree to his demands!
What a thought. Boris has worked out that all forms of Brexit will be economically disastrous for the UK. So he engineers a No Deal Brexit so that he can blame the EU for the disaster that he helped instigate.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the highest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
And the Scots wanting to know what petty, childish, arbitrary reason is being adduced by the Tory governm,ent in London why their fellow No to Brexit voting nation in the UK gets to stay in the EU but they don't.
Spitfires and 'This Island Story' don't cut it any more.
Do you know what standing Momentim or Corbyn's new group/moniker has with the Co-operative? (Can't find the name of the banner)
I was accused by a Momentum organiser of being a right-winger with my Co-operative membership apparently being proof. I asked how that worked, considering that Co-operatives have the workers owning the means of production...
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
They made their decisions four years ago. Four years ago you couldn't have told us what the UK wanted from Brexit.
No it isn't. Hedge funds don't need to be good at their jobs to distort the political and democratic process for their own ends ; this gets the cause and effect back to front. It's no more like saying the Rothchilds are in charge than pointing to the vast distorting influence of self-interested campaign finance in the United States.
What on earth do you mean by 'for their own ends'? They are funds. They take views on valuations and likely future price moves, or sometimes relative price moves. They make money when they get it right, and they lose money (sometimes shed-loads of money) when they get it wrong. They don't have any ends beyond that, and in the UK the extent to which they can 'distort the political and democratic process' is at most by making strictly-regulated and publicly-disclosed donations to political parties, much like Unite does.
Their ends are simply profit, as the United States' corporate lobbyists are. If you allow intelligent stratrgists to boost political parties and referenda campaigns to boost particular profits, you'll distort democracy. This is not complex or controversial.
No, it's not complex or controversial, it's a simple matter of evidence and of plausibility. Would you care to provide any evidence whatsoever that any hedge fund made money out of influencing the referendum result?
"In 2016, Odey was a "prominent" backer of Brexit,[25] arguing it would allow the UK to govern itself.[26] Later that year, his hedge fund won about 15% of its value following the results of the Brexit referendum.[27] He told the BBC on the morning of the result that he had made £220 million speculating that the markets would fall, saying "‘Il mattino ha l'oro in bocca’ – the morning has gold in its mouth""
"Crispin Odey – contributed £14.9m out of the total £24.1m in donations and loans given to the leave campaigns in the five months leading up to the referendum."
LOL, his flagship fund lost 49% in 2016.
You wrote 'Would you care to provide any evidence whatsoever that any hedge fund made money out of influencing the referendum result?'
I've provided evidence Odey substantially backed and directly benefited from the outcome. What he lost in other 'informed bets' is not relevant.
I remember that. He was all over the place boasting about it. Feigned a bit of sheepishness but was clearly thinking he was just one hell of a great guy.
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
But consider this.
The EU has lots of deals with various countries, with other nations happy to talk to them as well.
I know it's not your view of how the world works, or should work...
... but is it possible that they know what they're doing, and that the EU approach (set out your broad stall very clearly early on and subsequently insulate the negotiators from the politicians as much as possible) is an effective way of doing things?
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
"They" have made their decision. Again. For the umpteenth time. This morning. Took 8 minutes.
Might the explanation be for what is going on that the ERG group won't in reality accept any kind of deal and that Boris is unwilling or feels unable to stand up to them?
I think that Johnson has realized that even a zero-tariff zero-quota FTA isn't going to cut it. It's the reimposition of border checks on a previously frictionless border that will kill the British economy, not the tariffs or quotas. Better to go for the full no-deal then and put the blame on the EU. He can hardly do that if the EU agree to his demands!
Painted into a corner. He can blame the EU for No Deal but he cannot blame the EU for not preparing for No Deal. The pathetic appeals to patriotism from Tory MPs today show that they know what is coming and want to deflect the blame anywhere they can.
Certainly the one thing that really helps people in the rest of the EU respect Britain is constant very relevant references to the second world war by governing party MPs.
All we need now is the RAF Memorial Flight Lancaster to be wheeled out for flypasts. Just as well it's not September.
Rubbish! After what the EU have done to us we'll be saving such an aerial dreadnaught for bombing raids on Paris. I'm sure the new broken-down carriers can be adapted to accommodate it if needed.
WW2 was of course shit for all of Europe (and the world), but the UK did emerge with its head held high at the expense of the death of the Empire and really a humiliation of the Country. I think it's harsh to begrudge a little pride in that sacrifice.
It would have been possible to let Europe rot.
Nonetheless I agree entirely that this is a once or twice a year memorial type recognition, and has nothing to do with current politics.
Quite. Though essays could be written about the abuse of Spitfires in modern politics, that doesn't affect how shit it was for the chaps who flew and fought in them and elsewhere. And that we should remember and repsect and commemorate that - but not celebrate. That's for the idiots and abusers.
This is from a couple of hours ago on the Guardian Live Blog:
"The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished. The prime minister’s spokesman did not deny the Reuters report saying that Boris Johnson was rebuffed when he tried to get the EU to agree to Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron getting involved in the trade talks.
The spokesman also rejected suggestions that Ursula von der Leyen’s comment about sovereignty this morning amounted to anything significant. He said: I would say there isn’t anything new here, because they still say they would adapt the conditions they place on us for access, and our position on sovereignty remains unchanged."
And that is the heart of it. The Tories want sovereignty for Britain. But do not want it for anyone else.
It is truly a stupid child’s view of the world.
That's a total misrepresentation or misunderstanding of the facts.
You seem to want to negotiate with the constituent parts of a trading group that agrees deals as a group. As is set out in their laws. What is that if not an interference in their sovereignty ?
It is sanity. If you actually want to find a compromise then getting the key stakeholders into the same room is rational.
They can still agree or disagree as a group but that agreement can be facilitated by finding solutions to the concerns of the group with some of those members.
However wanting to do something and compelling something are two very different matters. It isn't interfering in their sovereignty since they retain the decision. Suggesting something and compelling something are two very different outcomes. We aren't compelling them to have bilateral talks but facilitating that, if they agree to go down that path which is sensible, is a sensible way to find a compromise.
You wrote 'Would you care to provide any evidence whatsoever that any hedge fund made money out of influencing the referendum result?'
I've provided evidence Odey substantially backed and directly benefited from the outcome. What he lost in other 'informed bets' is not relevant.
No, you've shown that:
(a) Odey backed Vote Leave, which of course I knew
(b) That the nominal value of his bearish fund increased on the day after the referendum, when stocks fell, which is true.
You haven't shown the slightest connection between the two - are you seriously arguing that he backed Vote Leave not because he believed that Brexit was a good thing, but because he hoped that if it were to win, share prices would temporarily fall and he could make money by betting on that outcome?
It's batshit-crazy as a conspiracy theory, isn't it? Especially since there's no evidence that he did bet on the outcome any more than he was betting before (and after) on markets falling; it's been his consistent theme for several years.
But let's assume it's right. For the sake of argument we'll assume he engineered a share-price fall. Unfortunately, at least for himself and his investors, in his delight he seems to have forgotten to close his position, so the fund lost it all again (and more) when prices rapidly adjusted. No money was made by him on it, so he didn't benefit from it. In fact he doubled down and lost more by betting on continuing price falls:
Painted into a corner. He can blame the EU for No Deal but he cannot blame the EU for not preparing for No Deal. The pathetic appeals to patriotism from Tory MPs today show that they know what is coming and want to deflect the blame anywhere they can.
How do we prepare for a No Deal that BoZo says will be brilliant?
Painted into a corner. He can blame the EU for No Deal but he cannot blame the EU for not preparing for No Deal. The pathetic appeals to patriotism from Tory MPs today show that they know what is coming and want to deflect the blame anywhere they can.
How do we prepare for a No Deal that BoZo says will be brilliant?
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the highest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
And the Scots wanting to know what petty, childish, arbitrary reason is being adduced by the Tory governm,ent in London why their fellow No to Brexit voting nation in the UK gets to stay in the EU but they don't.
Spitfires and 'This Island Story' don't cut it any more.
Scotland is part of mainland GB, it does not have a land border with another EU nation like Northern Ireland has with the Republic of Ireland and Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014 in a once in a generation referendum so will be treated the same as the rest of GB. Tough.
Otherwise you may as well allow Remain voting London, Tunbridge Wells, Esher and Walton, Guildford, Harrogate, Cardiff, Oxford and Cambridge, Manchester and Liverpool, Bristol, Winchester and Lewes and Brighton etc to also stay in the SM and CU. Where would it stop?
Painted into a corner. He can blame the EU for No Deal but he cannot blame the EU for not preparing for No Deal. The pathetic appeals to patriotism from Tory MPs today show that they know what is coming and want to deflect the blame anywhere they can.
How do we prepare for a No Deal that BoZo says will be brilliant?
We get the bunting out and stock up on champagne, obv. Certainly that's what I'm doing (well, the champagne bit), albeit for slightly different reasons.
Painted into a corner. He can blame the EU for No Deal but he cannot blame the EU for not preparing for No Deal. The pathetic appeals to patriotism from Tory MPs today show that they know what is coming and want to deflect the blame anywhere they can.
How do we prepare for a No Deal that BoZo says will be brilliant?
Fair enough. She's not come across to me as a top notch politician when I've seen her interviewed, but then again I think she was defending Corbynite policy at the time. Probably good enough to go in to bat for a City Region though - I mean Boris was, wasn't he?
Happy to realise that I can probably vote Labour at some point before 2024 and we can still get rid of our useless, complacent PCC to boot.
On the betting side, to note this is West Yorkshire only, so Labour should be strong favourite - previous incarnatoons of the City Region proposal that included Harrogate and/or York fell by the wayside.
Fair enough. She's not come across to me as a top notch politician when I've seen her interviewed, but then again I think she was defending Corbynite policy at the time. Probably good enough to go in to bat for a City Region though - I mean Boris was, wasn't he?
Happy to realise that I can probably vote Labour at some point before 2024 and we can still get rid of our useless, complacent PCC to boot.
On the betting side, to note this is West Yorkshire only, so Labour should be strong favourite - previous incarnatoons of the City Region proposal that included Harrogate and/or York fell by the wayside.
Fair enough. She's not come across to me as a top notch politician when I've seen her interviewed, but then again I think she was defending Corbynite policy at the time. Probably good enough to go in to bat for a City Region though - I mean Boris was, wasn't he?
Happy to realise that I can probably vote Labour at some point before 2024 and we can still get rid of our useless, complacent PCC to boot.
On the betting side, to note this is West Yorkshire only, so Labour should be strong favourite - previous incarnatoons of the City Region proposal that included Harrogate and/or York fell by the wayside.
Most famous up to now for ‘that dress’ I believe.
You say tarty dress, I say zip wire. It's all good in the mayoralties
One for Mr Morris Dancer. If Bottas is beating Hamilton in practice, and Russell beat Bottas on the track, should Russell replace Hamilton at Mercedes next year? (Ducks and takes cover).
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
They made their decisions four years ago. Four years ago you couldn't have told us what the UK wanted from Brexit.
Yes four years ago Barnier said the only Brexit that made sense was a Canada style deal.
Four years ago we had Theresa May who was absolutely bloody hapless as PM. Thankfully now we have an actual leader and he says we want a Canada style deal.
It really shouldn't be rocket science to get a deal when we want the only form of Brexit that Barnier thought worked for the UK.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the highest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
You are one of my key sources on this quest I'm on to work out WHY Johnson will No Deal if he does.
The Tory Party. He can't do any LPF deal because many of his MPs would rebel and he'd be relying on Labour votes and losing the grass roots and putting his position in peril.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the highest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
You are one of my key sources on this quest I'm on to work out WHY Johnson will No Deal if he does.
The Tory Party. He can't do any LPF deal because many of his MPs would rebel and he'd be relying on Labour votes and losing the grass roots and putting his position in peril.
How does that sound to you as a thought?
I think that's correct. But it means also that in more remainery Torydom, West Kent, Surrey etc, he risks losing people to the LD's now that voting that way no longer risks letting Big Bad Corbyn in through the back door.
But if Bottas hadn't signed, he might be getting replaced. And likely will, in 2022. He should start looking elsewhere now.
Russell barely fit in the car. I think he had minor knee/hand injuries from being crammed in. And he was still handily beating Bottas, even though he had to ask repeatedly how to do various procedures on the steering wheel.
Edited extra bit: on 'should': probably not. But I wouldn't object, just for the entertainment value. Won't happen, though.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the highest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
You are one of my key sources on this quest I'm on to work out WHY Johnson will No Deal if he does.
The Tory Party. He can't do any LPF deal because many of his MPs would rebel and he'd be relying on Labour votes and losing the grass roots and putting his position in peril.
How does that sound to you as a thought?
If he does do a Deal yes the ERG will vote against and some Red Wall Tory voting Leavers will go to Farage, if he doesn't do a deal then as Doug Seal states the Tories will get wiped out in most of London next May by Starmer Labour and in much of the Home Counties by the LDs
Fair enough. She's not come across to me as a top notch politician when I've seen her interviewed, but then again I think she was defending Corbynite policy at the time. Probably good enough to go in to bat for a City Region though - I mean Boris was, wasn't he?
Happy to realise that I can probably vote Labour at some point before 2024 and we can still get rid of our useless, complacent PCC to boot.
On the betting side, to note this is West Yorkshire only, so Labour should be strong favourite - previous incarnatoons of the City Region proposal that included Harrogate and/or York fell by the wayside.
Most famous up to now for ‘that dress’ I believe.
Probably more famous for being in Corrie I'd have thought.
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
But consider this.
The EU has lots of deals with various countries, with other nations happy to talk to them as well.
I know it's not your view of how the world works, or should work...
... but is it possible that they know what they're doing, and that the EU approach (set out your broad stall very clearly early on and subsequently insulate the negotiators from the politicians as much as possible) is an effective way of doing things?
No. The EU is sliding backwards when it comes to deals agreed globally.
Even the EFTA has more deals agreed than the EU does - and every single EFTA nation has a superior GDP per capita to the EU. The EU is a slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution. Failure to reach a deal with them while reaching dozens with the rest of the globe is symptomatic of their malaise.
Fair enough. She's not come across to me as a top notch politician when I've seen her interviewed, but then again I think she was defending Corbynite policy at the time. Probably good enough to go in to bat for a City Region though - I mean Boris was, wasn't he?
Happy to realise that I can probably vote Labour at some point before 2024 and we can still get rid of our useless, complacent PCC to boot.
On the betting side, to note this is West Yorkshire only, so Labour should be strong favourite - previous incarnatoons of the City Region proposal that included Harrogate and/or York fell by the wayside.
Most famous up to now for ‘that dress’ I believe.
Probably more famous for being in Corrie I'd have thought.
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
But consider this.
The EU has lots of deals with various countries, with other nations happy to talk to them as well.
I know it's not your view of how the world works, or should work...
... but is it possible that they know what they're doing, and that the EU approach (set out your broad stall very clearly early on and subsequently insulate the negotiators from the politicians as much as possible) is an effective way of doing things?
No. The EU is sliding backwards when it comes to deals agreed globally.
Even the EFTA has more deals agreed than the EU does - and every single EFTA nation has a superior GDP per capita to the EU. The EU is a slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution. Failure to reach a deal with them while reaching dozens with the rest of the globe is symptomatic of their malaise.
Presumably you think Germany would be better off outside the EU, and if not, why not?
Ok. But he must think we his people will love it too. Or at least that most of his Leaver base plus a fair chunk of others will.
Do you think he genuinely believes that?
He was elected PM with a huge majority. Why would he not think his people love him?
Yes. But he rushed a "deal" through last year - his WA - because he needed it for the election. He knew that running on a No Deal ticket would not have had the same appeal, might not even have won.
So, no, I'm not convinced.
The only reason I can think of why he won't do a deal is that he fears his Hard Leave MP faction would rebel and he'd be forced to rely on Labour votes, look weak, disappoint the grass roots, put his position in jeopardy.
If so, I can see the rationale from his PoV to go for the WTO crash out.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the highest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
And the Scots wanting to know what petty, childish, arbitrary reason is being adduced by the Tory governm,ent in London why their fellow No to Brexit voting nation in the UK gets to stay in the EU but they don't.
Spitfires and 'This Island Story' don't cut it any more.
Scotland is part of mainland GB, it does not have a land border with another EU nation like Northern Ireland has with the Republic of Ireland and Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014 in a once in a generation referendum so will be treated the same as the rest of GB. Tough.
Otherwise you may as well allow Remain voting London, Tunbridge Wells, Esher and Walton, Guildford, Harrogate, Cardiff, Oxford and Cambridge, Manchester and Liverpool, Bristol, Winchester and Lewes and Brighton etc to also stay in the SM and CU. Where would it stop?
Indeed, where will it stop?
Your party really has restarted the disintegration of the United Kingdom that was on hold before.
But if Bottas hadn't signed, he might be getting replaced. And likely will, in 2022. He should start looking elsewhere now.
Russell barely fit in the car. I think he had minor knee/hand injuries from being crammed in. And he was still handily beating Bottas, even though he had to ask repeatedly how to do various procedures on the steering wheel.
Edited extra bit: on 'should': probably not. But I wouldn't object, just for the entertainment value. Won't happen, though.
Fair enough. She's not come across to me as a top notch politician when I've seen her interviewed, but then again I think she was defending Corbynite policy at the time. Probably good enough to go in to bat for a City Region though - I mean Boris was, wasn't he?
Happy to realise that I can probably vote Labour at some point before 2024 and we can still get rid of our useless, complacent PCC to boot.
On the betting side, to note this is West Yorkshire only, so Labour should be strong favourite - previous incarnatoons of the City Region proposal that included Harrogate and/or York fell by the wayside.
Mentioning Harrogate reminds me that the current plans for North Yorkshire are 2 councils using the A1M as the boundary between them.
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
But consider this.
The EU has lots of deals with various countries, with other nations happy to talk to them as well.
I know it's not your view of how the world works, or should work...
... but is it possible that they know what they're doing, and that the EU approach (set out your broad stall very clearly early on and subsequently insulate the negotiators from the politicians as much as possible) is an effective way of doing things?
No. The EU is sliding backwards when it comes to deals agreed globally.
Even the EFTA has more deals agreed than the EU does - and every single EFTA nation has a superior GDP per capita to the EU. The EU is a slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution. Failure to reach a deal with them while reaching dozens with the rest of the globe is symptomatic of their malaise.
Presumably you think Germany would be better off outside the EU, and if not, why not?
Germany controls the EU. They run it and they run the Euro. The EU doesn't do anything Germany doesn't want to do.
That's not been the case with the UK since before German Unification.
Oh this might explain some of Trump's tweets from earlier on today.
State prosecutors in Manhattan have interviewed several employees of President Trump’s bank and insurance broker in recent weeks, according to people with knowledge of the matter, significantly escalating an investigation into the president that he is powerless to stop.
The interviews with people who work for the lender, Deutsche Bank, and the insurance brokerage, Aon, are the latest indication that once Mr. Trump leaves office, he still faces the potential threat of criminal charges that would be beyond the reach of federal pardons.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the highest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
You are one of my key sources on this quest I'm on to work out WHY Johnson will No Deal if he does.
The Tory Party. He can't do any LPF deal because many of his MPs would rebel and he'd be relying on Labour votes and losing the grass roots and putting his position in peril.
How does that sound to you as a thought?
I think that's correct. But it means also that in more remainery Torydom, West Kent, Surrey etc, he risks losing people to the LD's now that voting that way no longer risks letting Big Bad Corbyn in through the back door.
Losing voters to the LDs is better than losing voters to Labour.
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
But consider this.
The EU has lots of deals with various countries, with other nations happy to talk to them as well.
I know it's not your view of how the world works, or should work...
... but is it possible that they know what they're doing, and that the EU approach (set out your broad stall very clearly early on and subsequently insulate the negotiators from the politicians as much as possible) is an effective way of doing things?
No. The EU is sliding backwards when it comes to deals agreed globally.
Even the EFTA has more deals agreed than the EU does - and every single EFTA nation has a superior GDP per capita to the EU. The EU is a slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution. Failure to reach a deal with them while reaching dozens with the rest of the globe is symptomatic of their malaise.
Presumably you think Germany would be better off outside the EU, and if not, why not?
Germany controls the EU. They run it and they run the Euro. The EU doesn't do anything Germany doesn't want to do.
That's not been the case with the UK since before German Unification.
Fair enough. She's not come across to me as a top notch politician when I've seen her interviewed, but then again I think she was defending Corbynite policy at the time. Probably good enough to go in to bat for a City Region though - I mean Boris was, wasn't he?
Happy to realise that I can probably vote Labour at some point before 2024 and we can still get rid of our useless, complacent PCC to boot.
On the betting side, to note this is West Yorkshire only, so Labour should be strong favourite - previous incarnatoons of the City Region proposal that included Harrogate and/or York fell by the wayside.
Mentioning Harrogate reminds me that the current plans for North Yorkshire are 2 councils using the A1M as the boundary between them.
Is that in addition to north Yorks county council or replacing it?
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
But consider this.
The EU has lots of deals with various countries, with other nations happy to talk to them as well.
I know it's not your view of how the world works, or should work...
... but is it possible that they know what they're doing, and that the EU approach (set out your broad stall very clearly early on and subsequently insulate the negotiators from the politicians as much as possible) is an effective way of doing things?
No. The EU is sliding backwards when it comes to deals agreed globally.
Even the EFTA has more deals agreed than the EU does - and every single EFTA nation has a superior GDP per capita to the EU. The EU is a slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution. Failure to reach a deal with them while reaching dozens with the rest of the globe is symptomatic of their malaise.
Presumably you think Germany would be better off outside the EU, and if not, why not?
Germany controls the EU. They run it and they run the Euro. The EU doesn't do anything Germany doesn't want to do.
That's not been the case with the UK since before German Unification.
They have a significant influence but they don't control it by any means. If they did then decision making would be a lot faster than you complain about.
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
But consider this.
The EU has lots of deals with various countries, with other nations happy to talk to them as well.
I know it's not your view of how the world works, or should work...
... but is it possible that they know what they're doing, and that the EU approach (set out your broad stall very clearly early on and subsequently insulate the negotiators from the politicians as much as possible) is an effective way of doing things?
No. The EU is sliding backwards when it comes to deals agreed globally.
Even the EFTA has more deals agreed than the EU does - and every single EFTA nation has a superior GDP per capita to the EU. The EU is a slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution. Failure to reach a deal with them while reaching dozens with the rest of the globe is symptomatic of their malaise.
Presumably you think Germany would be better off outside the EU, and if not, why not?
Germany controls the EU. They run it and they run the Euro. The EU doesn't do anything Germany doesn't want to do.
That's not been the case with the UK since before German Unification.
So does that make Germany a "slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution"?
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
But consider this.
The EU has lots of deals with various countries, with other nations happy to talk to them as well.
I know it's not your view of how the world works, or should work...
... but is it possible that they know what they're doing, and that the EU approach (set out your broad stall very clearly early on and subsequently insulate the negotiators from the politicians as much as possible) is an effective way of doing things?
No. The EU is sliding backwards when it comes to deals agreed globally.
Even the EFTA has more deals agreed than the EU does - and every single EFTA nation has a superior GDP per capita to the EU. The EU is a slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution. Failure to reach a deal with them while reaching dozens with the rest of the globe is symptomatic of their malaise.
Presumably you think Germany would be better off outside the EU, and if not, why not?
Germany controls the EU. They run it and they run the Euro. The EU doesn't do anything Germany doesn't want to do.
That's not been the case with the UK since before German Unification.
Um, no...
UK didn't want the Euro so I'm guessing the EU didn't launch the Euro then in your world?
Fair enough. She's not come across to me as a top notch politician when I've seen her interviewed, but then again I think she was defending Corbynite policy at the time. Probably good enough to go in to bat for a City Region though - I mean Boris was, wasn't he?
Happy to realise that I can probably vote Labour at some point before 2024 and we can still get rid of our useless, complacent PCC to boot.
On the betting side, to note this is West Yorkshire only, so Labour should be strong favourite - previous incarnatoons of the City Region proposal that included Harrogate and/or York fell by the wayside.
Mentioning Harrogate reminds me that the current plans for North Yorkshire are 2 councils using the A1M as the boundary between them.
That works for me: NY Daleside and NY Moorside. Actually, quite a bit of the former is West Riding as well.
Everyone at the Commission is quite confused. The current offer to the UK is a deal in which IF we align, we get full access. IF, in future, we diverge they limit access or put up (some) tariffs. The UK choosing to go to NO access and FULL tariffs NOW, is incomprehensible.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the ihighest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
And the Scots wanting to know what petty, childish, arbitrary reason is being adduced by the Tory governm,ent in London why their fellow No to Brexit voting nation in the UK gets to stay in the EU but they don't.
Spitfires and 'This Island Story' don't cut it any more.
Scotland is part of mainland GB, it does not have a land border with another EU nation like Northern Ireland has with the Republic of Ireland and Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014 in a once in a generation referendum so will be treated the same as the rest of GB. Tough.
Otherwise you may as well allow Remain voting London, Tunbridge Wells, Esher and Walton, Guildford, Harrogate, Cardiff, Oxford and Cambridge, Manchester and Liverpool, Bristol, Winchester and Lewes and Brighton etc to also stay in the SM and CU. Where would it stop?
Indeed, where will it stop?
Your party really has restarted the disintegration of the United Kingdom that was on hold before.
It hasn't, Yes to Scottish independence got 45% in 2014 pre Brexit and the SNP got 50% at the 2015 general election in Scotland before the Brexit vote, the SNP got only 45% last year in Scotland at the general election after the Brexit vote.
Plaid got 12% at the 2015 general election in Wales before the Brexit vote, Plaid got only 9% at the general election in Wales last year after the Brexit vote.
Sinn Fein got 24% in Northern Ireland at the 2015 general election before the Brexit vote, Sinn Fein got only 22% at the general election last year in Northern Ireland after the Brexit vote.
One thing that is remarkable during this negotiation is just how afraid the EU clearly are.
They're scared of their unity being divided by conversations.
They're scared a free UK will out compete them.
Considering what an epic own goal the UK supposedly made with Brexit, why is Europe so lacking in confidence in dealing with us?
Makes me all the more confident that we should do what they're afraid of and walk away.
Assuming that the EU is very afraid of us walking away, why do you think it is that they're apparently holding their negotiating line and not making major concessions?
Because they're too sclerotic to make decisions. There are no decision makers in the room. That is a deep part of what is wrong with the institution.
But consider this.
The EU has lots of deals with various countries, with other nations happy to talk to them as well.
I know it's not your view of how the world works, or should work...
... but is it possible that they know what they're doing, and that the EU approach (set out your broad stall very clearly early on and subsequently insulate the negotiators from the politicians as much as possible) is an effective way of doing things?
No. The EU is sliding backwards when it comes to deals agreed globally.
Even the EFTA has more deals agreed than the EU does - and every single EFTA nation has a superior GDP per capita to the EU. The EU is a slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution. Failure to reach a deal with them while reaching dozens with the rest of the globe is symptomatic of their malaise.
Presumably you think Germany would be better off outside the EU, and if not, why not?
Germany controls the EU. They run it and they run the Euro. The EU doesn't do anything Germany doesn't want to do.
That's not been the case with the UK since before German Unification.
So does that make Germany a "slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution"?
No. It makes it a part of one though yes.
Less damaging for them though as it is slow moving in a direction they and the French set the course of.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the ihighest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
And the Scots wanting to know what petty, childish, arbitrary reason is being adduced by the Tory governm,ent in London why their fellow No to Brexit voting nation in the UK gets to stay in the EU but they don't.
Spitfires and 'This Island Story' don't cut it any more.
Scotland is part of mainland GB, it does not have a land border with another EU nation like Northern Ireland has with the Republic of Ireland and Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014 in a once in a generation referendum so will be treated the same as the rest of GB. Tough.
Otherwise you may as well allow Remain voting London, Tunbridge Wells, Esher and Walton, Guildford, Harrogate, Cardiff, Oxford and Cambridge, Manchester and Liverpool, Bristol, Winchester and Lewes and Brighton etc to also stay in the SM and CU. Where would it stop?
Indeed, where will it stop?
Your party really has restarted the disintegration of the United Kingdom that was on hold before.
It hasn't, Yes to Scottish independence got 45% in 2014 pre Brexit and the SNP got 50% at the 2015 general election in Scotland before Brexit, only 45% last year in Scotland at the general election after the Brexit vote.
Plaid got 12% at the 2015 general election in Wales before the Brexit vote, Plaid got only 9% at the general election in Wales last year after the Brexit vote.
Sinn Fein got 24% in Northern Ireland at the 2015 general election before the Brexit vote, only 22% at the general election last year in Northern Ireland after the Brexit vote.
As we all know, historical trends are a sure fire indicator of future performance.
Quite possibly, Northern Ireland is staying in the single market and customs union effectively while also being assured of having minimal checks on goods going to and from GB, so if we go to No Deal Northern Ireland may see the ihighest growth rate not only in the UK but Europe as a whole.
And the Scots wanting to know what petty, childish, arbitrary reason is being adduced by the Tory governm,ent in London why their fellow No to Brexit voting nation in the UK gets to stay in the EU but they don't.
Spitfires and 'This Island Story' don't cut it any more.
Scotland is part of mainland GB, it does not have a land border with another EU nation like Northern Ireland has with the Republic of Ireland and Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014 in a once in a generation referendum so will be treated the same as the rest of GB. Tough.
Otherwise you may as well allow Remain voting London, Tunbridge Wells, Esher and Walton, Guildford, Harrogate, Cardiff, Oxford and Cambridge, Manchester and Liverpool, Bristol, Winchester and Lewes and Brighton etc to also stay in the SM and CU. Where would it stop?
Indeed, where will it stop?
Your party really has restarted the disintegration of the United Kingdom that was on hold before.
It hasn't, Yes to Scottish independence got 45% in 2014 pre Brexit and the SNP got 50% at the 2015 general election in Scotland before the Brexit vote, the SNP got only 45% last year in Scotland at the general election after the Brexit vote.
Plaid got 12% at the 2015 general election in Wales before the Brexit vote, Plaid got only 9% at the general election in Wales last year after the Brexit vote.
Sinn Fein got 24% in Northern Ireland at the 2015 general election before the Brexit vote, Sinn Fein got only 22% at the general election last year in Northern Ireland after the Brexit vote.
What do you call a border down the Irish Sea? Gluing the UK together with Gorilla* Glue?
Comments
I for one would appreciate a Batley & Spen by election.
Tracy Brabin (MP for Batley and Spen) 4,389 (50.7%)
Susan Hinchcliffe (leader of Bradford council) 3,475 (40.1%)
Hugh Goulbourne 801 (9.2%)
Turnout 43.5%
Brabin promised to stand as MP if elected as mayor
They can still agree or disagree as a group but that agreement can be facilitated by finding solutions to the concerns of the group with some of those members.
However wanting to do something and compelling something are two very different matters. It isn't interfering in their sovereignty since they retain the decision. Suggesting something and compelling something are two very different outcomes. We aren't compelling them to have bilateral talks but facilitating that, if they agree to go down that path which is sensible, is a sensible way to find a compromise.
The sugar rush of the ultimate Sticking It To The Euro Man, followed by the long hangover of trying to make it work afterwards.
If my understanding of that hangover is right, then it could destroy Johnson's and the Conservative Party's reputation for years.
https://twitter.com/tj_arnold/status/1337429016387739648
After that he is still fucked.
I can't see it myself. If this is the judgement he must have great faith in "values" and culture war issues continuing to dominate our politics. That's the only way it makes sense to me.
I imagine that whenever he gets flashes of "oh shit" when he contemplates no deal he is instantly soothed by those around him who tell him not to worry. For any number of reasons but we will have a Conservative govt for the next three-odd years so it could be altruism or otherwise by his colleagues.
Spitfires and 'This Island Story' don't cut it any more.
The EU has lots of deals with various countries, with other nations happy to talk to them as well.
I know it's not your view of how the world works, or should work...
... but is it possible that they know what they're doing, and that the EU approach (set out your broad stall very clearly early on and subsequently insulate the negotiators from the politicians as much as possible) is an effective way of doing things?
(a) Odey backed Vote Leave, which of course I knew
(b) That the nominal value of his bearish fund increased on the day after the referendum, when stocks fell, which is true.
You haven't shown the slightest connection between the two - are you seriously arguing that he backed Vote Leave not because he believed that Brexit was a good thing, but because he hoped that if it were to win, share prices would temporarily fall and he could make money by betting on that outcome?
It's batshit-crazy as a conspiracy theory, isn't it? Especially since there's no evidence that he did bet on the outcome any more than he was betting before (and after) on markets falling; it's been his consistent theme for several years.
But let's assume it's right. For the sake of argument we'll assume he engineered a share-price fall. Unfortunately, at least for himself and his investors, in his delight he seems to have forgotten to close his position, so the fund lost it all again (and more) when prices rapidly adjusted. No money was made by him on it, so he didn't benefit from it. In fact he doubled down and lost more by betting on continuing price falls:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3739088/Hedge-fund-caught-short-doom-monger-Crispin-Odey-WORST-performer-2016-don-t-weep-s-worth-20m.html
Otherwise you may as well allow Remain voting London, Tunbridge Wells, Esher and Walton, Guildford, Harrogate, Cardiff, Oxford and Cambridge, Manchester and Liverpool, Bristol, Winchester and Lewes and Brighton etc to also stay in the SM and CU. Where would it stop?
Happy to realise that I can probably vote Labour at some point before 2024 and we can still get rid of our useless, complacent PCC to boot.
On the betting side, to note this is West Yorkshire only, so Labour should be strong favourite - previous incarnatoons of the City Region proposal that included Harrogate and/or York fell by the wayside.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1337433250927702022
Lab 46%
Con 39.7%
LD 6.1%
Brexit 4.2%
Greens 2%
Just as a Greenwich Councillor may be about to be locked up for Council Housing fraud.
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1337431866513743875
South and North Yorkshires are the best.
East and West are rubbish.
I speak as the ultimate authority on this subject considering I've lived and worked in all the Yorkshires except East Yorkshire.
Four years ago we had Theresa May who was absolutely bloody hapless as PM. Thankfully now we have an actual leader and he says we want a Canada style deal.
It really shouldn't be rocket science to get a deal when we want the only form of Brexit that Barnier thought worked for the UK.
The Tory Party. He can't do any LPF deal because many of his MPs would rebel and he'd be relying on Labour votes and losing the grass roots and putting his position in peril.
How does that sound to you as a thought?
But if Bottas hadn't signed, he might be getting replaced. And likely will, in 2022. He should start looking elsewhere now.
Russell barely fit in the car. I think he had minor knee/hand injuries from being crammed in. And he was still handily beating Bottas, even though he had to ask repeatedly how to do various procedures on the steering wheel.
Edited extra bit: on 'should': probably not. But I wouldn't object, just for the entertainment value. Won't happen, though.
Even the EFTA has more deals agreed than the EU does - and every single EFTA nation has a superior GDP per capita to the EU. The EU is a slow moving, sclerotic, failing institution. Failure to reach a deal with them while reaching dozens with the rest of the globe is symptomatic of their malaise.
So, no, I'm not convinced.
The only reason I can think of why he won't do a deal is that he fears his Hard Leave MP faction would rebel and he'd be forced to rely on Labour votes, look weak, disappoint the grass roots, put his position in jeopardy.
If so, I can see the rationale from his PoV to go for the WTO crash out.
Your party really has restarted the disintegration of the United Kingdom that was on hold before.
No politician should be visiting a school for any reason right now.
That's not been the case with the UK since before German Unification.
State prosecutors in Manhattan have interviewed several employees of President Trump’s bank and insurance broker in recent weeks, according to people with knowledge of the matter, significantly escalating an investigation into the president that he is powerless to stop.
The interviews with people who work for the lender, Deutsche Bank, and the insurance brokerage, Aon, are the latest indication that once Mr. Trump leaves office, he still faces the potential threat of criminal charges that would be beyond the reach of federal pardons.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/nyregion/trump-taxes-cy-vance.html
The move now means that the Justices can act on the lawsuit at any time."
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/biden-trump-us-election-news-12-11-20/index.html
Presumably if they are going to do anything they would need to move almost immediately given that the Electoral College votes on Monday.
Heck, South Yorkshire is in fact recognised as a Republic.
Everyone at the Commission is quite confused. The current offer to the UK is a deal in which IF we align, we get full access. IF, in future, we diverge they limit access or put up (some) tariffs. The UK choosing to go to NO access and FULL tariffs NOW, is incomprehensible.
Plaid got 12% at the 2015 general election in Wales before the Brexit vote, Plaid got only 9% at the general election in Wales last year after the Brexit vote.
Sinn Fein got 24% in Northern Ireland at the 2015 general election before the Brexit vote, Sinn Fein got only 22% at the general election last year in Northern Ireland after the Brexit vote.
Less damaging for them though as it is slow moving in a direction they and the French set the course of.
Edit: * = tyhis stuff. https://uk.gorillaglue.com/ No allusion to any Brexiter politician intended.