Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

In other news – politicalbetting.com

13567

Comments

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    kinabalu said:

    FWIW - and I'm giving a massive hostage to fortune here - in contrast to most of the Twitterati, I think that the chances of getting a deal in the next couple of days have improved quite a lot, and it will probably happen.

    My reasoning is that the excuses Boris is giving for not signing up are so fantastical that they won't serve as an excuse for No Deal. Today he's repeated this nonsense:

    Unfortunately at the moment, as you know, there are two key things where we just can’t seem to make progress and that’s this kind of ratchet clause they’ve got in to keep the UK locked in to whatever they want to do in terms of legislation, which obviously doesn’t work.

    We know that is nonsense, he knows it is nonsense, so why is he saying it? If it's to give himself an excuse to 'walk away' and blame the EU, then it's a jolly feeble one. What happens when the EU publish their proposed text?

    If Boris really wants an excuse to walk out, he could use fish, which no-one understands and where the EU position can easily be portrayed as unreasonable.

    So it looks to me as though he's erecting a massive straw dragon which he can heroically slay.

    Fingers crossed that I'm right!

    I think you are probably right. Although it is possible that Johnson simply doesn't understand the EU's position on LPF.

    It's been spelled out very clearly today by Ursula von der Leyen.
    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1337346409054474253

    Yes, it's a huge concession.
    Of course it is. :smile:

    We win. Great deal coming.
    To be honest I just want a deal and everyone wins by moving on in an amicable manner
    What Johnson has just said- i.e. we must follow EU standards etc- seems to be totally at odds with what Ursela just said at that EU conference. So it's all just bluff and bluster.

    If the UK doesn't go for a deal now - it's because it never wanted one. And the fallout of that is on Johnson
  • DavidL said:

    FWIW - and I'm giving a massive hostage to fortune here - in contrast to most of the Twitterati, I think that the chances of getting a deal in the next couple of days have improved quite a lot, and it will probably happen.

    My reasoning is that the excuses Boris is giving for not signing up are so fantastical that they won't serve as an excuse for No Deal. Today he's repeated this nonsense:

    Unfortunately at the moment, as you know, there are two key things where we just can’t seem to make progress and that’s this kind of ratchet clause they’ve got in to keep the UK locked in to whatever they want to do in terms of legislation, which obviously doesn’t work.

    We know that is nonsense, he knows it is nonsense, so why is he saying it? If it's to give himself an excuse to 'walk away' and blame the EU, then it's a jolly feeble one. What happens when the EU publish their proposed text?

    If Boris really wants an excuse to walk out, he could use fish, which no-one understands and where the EU position can easily be portrayed as unreasonable.

    So it looks to me as though he's erecting a massive straw dragon which he can heroically slay.

    Fingers crossed that I'm right!

    I think you are probably right. Although it is possible that Johnson simply doesn't understand the EU's position on LPF.

    It's been spelled out very clearly today by Ursula von der Leyen.
    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1337346409054474253

    To me that is a big move and statement which no doubt puts Macron in his place

    I really hope this is the breakthrough we all need

    I am not sure it is a big move. It is just not what the UK side has been briefing the UK media. But whether it is or not is beside the point. The ratchet clause as described and condemned by the UK government does not exist.

    The UK media have their own very reliable EU and European sources as well too though.

    They're not mugs.
    Citation needed, I'm afraid.
    I think when you have Katya Adler, James Forsyth, Tim Shipman, Laura Kuenssberg and Tony Connelly all saying very similar things - amongst others - you can be fairly certain there's something to it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    dixiedean said:

    I am hopeful that government focus on Blyth will lead (central funding permitting) to a Tyne and Wear Metro extension to the town and to South Northumberland generally.

    And Tyne Valley.
    Maybe after the West End of Newcastle!

    No, you're right. And the Tyne Valley.
    It won't be a light railway as it would take forever to get into the City Centre. The plan is a normal rail service (to Central Station) with a stop at Northumberland Avenue for interchange to the Metro

    https://www.railfuture.org.uk/Ashington+Blyth+and+Tyne#:~:text=The new service would have,and Seaton Delaval) as well. has full details if it loads
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Just heard Ursula Van Der luyden explain in the most beautifully articulated English the latest position on the Brexit talks. What a contrast to the embarrassing buffoon of a Prime Minister who followed her.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited December 2020
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    I am hopeful that government focus on Blyth will lead (central funding permitting) to a Tyne and Wear Metro extension to the town and to South Northumberland generally.

    And Tyne Valley.
    Maybe after the West End of Newcastle!

    No, you're right. And the Tyne Valley.
    It won't be a light railway as it would take forever to get into the City Centre. The plan is a normal rail service (to Central Station) with a stop at Northumberland Avenue for interchange to the Metro

    https://www.railfuture.org.uk/Ashington+Blyth+and+Tyne#:~:text=The new service would have,and Seaton Delaval) as well. has full details if it loads
    I agree. However, it can be heavy rail and yet still branded as part of the Metro, just like in London.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Is this a concession or sedition?

    twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337385736530780161

    Yes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Would either of them not require some coherent thought?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,698
    DavidL said:

    Would either of them not require some coherent thought?
    Is he feeling ok?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337373146652020736
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    DavidL said:

    Would either of them not require some coherent thought?
    Is he feeling ok?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337373146652020736
    As long as he is kept away from the buttons. Just 40 more days.
  • Selebian said:

    We have the Peters Projection map, which shows countries according to their actual size, up in our bathroom.
    I am pretty sure that graphic is rubbish - or at least very poorly executed.

    Norway is 1089 miles long.
    The distance from Plymouth to Tangier in Morocco is 1012 miles.

    Look at that graphic at its end point and it certainly doesn't show that.
    I can't tell whether you're joking - apologies if so!

    If you're not, did you not also notice that the Canada-US border becomes a bit harder to cross? Shrinking countries about their centres to their true size while maintaining Mercator projections of centres further exaggerates the distances between them at higher latitudes (the Plymouth-Tangiers distance is very different to the length of Norway in the start, Mercator, projection too).

    The best way to look at a map of the world is on a globe.
    No I was being serious although having read your reply I realise I was looking at things in perhaps a way that was not intended by the makers.

    It stems from me having a little bit of useless information in my mind about how long Norway is. Something the Norwegians are always happy to tell you every single time you visit their country :)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,223

    kinabalu said:

    Drakeford sinking without trace as he announces the disaster that is covid in Wales

    All outdoor attractions across Wales to close

    He has announced that it is inevitable to move to alert 4 after Christmas unless everyone reduces the number of people we see or mix with

    Blaming the public is not a good look

    Yet it's one popular with yourself and the other PB moralisers, who call for a reporter's career to be destroyed because she broke covid rules.

    Funny old world.
    Yes. And often - although not in Big G's case tbf - the very same people who were almost horizontally relaxed about the Dominic "My rules don't apply to me" Cummings affair.

    This cost quite a few posters their integrity for 24 hours the other day. 6 of them in fact.
    I was remarkably consistent – I thought the Cummings thing was trivial guff (and said so repeatedly on here); ditto Kay Burley et al.

    What isn't trivial is the spinecrawling authoritarian moralising from PBers – asking that a woman's livelihood be removed because she had three mates over for drinks.
    Except that she enthusiastically participated in exactly that kind of spine-crawling authoritarian moralizing, demanding that other people's livelihoods be removed for similarly trivial offences. That she's finally getting a taste of her own medicine is nothing more than natural justice.
    NO. You cannot comment on this. Integrity free zone. Please contact mods and delete your comment.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    DavidL said:

    Would either of them not require some coherent thought?
    Is he feeling ok?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337373146652020736
    He was asking for options for an attack on Iran only a couple of weeks ago. He's full of it.
  • DavidL said:

    Would either of them not require some coherent thought?
    Is he feeling ok?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337373146652020736
    Perhaps he's considering some voluntary work with the Samaritans as a form of expiation?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,942

    I am hopeful that government focus on Blyth will lead (central funding permitting) to a Tyne and Wear Metro extension to the town and to South Northumberland generally.

    So is HMG good for the NE
    I will judge them on the results. The NE has been ignored by governments of all colours for too long.
    I genuinely expect that to change throughout the red wall seats
    Indeed.

    Labour get their votes from those who are struggling, so it is in their interests to ensure people are struggling.

    Tories get their votes from people who are more secure, so it is in their interests to ensure people are secure.

    If you want things to change for the better vote Tory.
    It has worked for the SNP in Scotland. I remember how grey and grim the West of Scotland was when labour ran everything.
    Indeed.

    Labour are a party that specialise in failure and misery. Keeping the serfs just about managing and voting for them is their purpose.

    The Tories believe in success. Blair claimed to and certainly achieved it for himself. The SNP believe in making a success out of Scotland - they believe too much too in blaming the English, a bit more concentration on making a success out of Scotland and a bit less England bashing wouldn't go amiss. But Scotland is much better off in the SNPs hands than Labours.

    Hopefully the red wall finds out they're better off with the Tories than Labour too.

    I am hopeful that government focus on Blyth will lead (central funding permitting) to a Tyne and Wear Metro extension to the town and to South Northumberland generally.

    So is HMG good for the NE
    I will judge them on the results. The NE has been ignored by governments of all colours for too long.
    I genuinely expect that to change throughout the red wall seats
    Indeed.

    Labour get their votes from those who are struggling, so it is in their interests to ensure people are struggling.

    Tories get their votes from people who are more secure, so it is in their interests to ensure people are secure.

    If you want things to change for the better vote Tory.
    It has worked for the SNP in Scotland. I remember how grey and grim the West of Scotland was when labour ran everything.
    Indeed.

    Labour are a party that specialise in failure and misery. Keeping the serfs just about managing and voting for them is their purpose.

    The Tories believe in success. Blair claimed to and certainly achieved it for himself. The SNP believe in making a success out of Scotland - they believe too much too in blaming the English, a bit more concentration on making a success out of Scotland and a bit less England bashing wouldn't go amiss. But Scotland is much better off in the SNPs hands than Labours.

    Hopefully the red wall finds out they're better off with the Tories than Labour too.
    Labour have historically relied on people voting for them for fear of their lives being even worse. Scots aren't going back to voting labour any time soon. Voters in the red wall may not either.
  • Roger said:

    Just heard Ursula Van Der luyden explain in the most beautifully articulated English the latest position on the Brexit talks. What a contrast to the embarrassing buffoon of a Prime Minister who followed her.

    And yet Johnson apparently speaks very good French. If you will excuse the rather silly headline of this article:

    https://qz.com/1689699/boris-johnson-is-secretly-a-europhile/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,223
    Roger said:

    Just heard Ursula Van Der luyden explain in the most beautifully articulated English the latest position on the Brexit talks. What a contrast to the embarrassing buffoon of a Prime Minister who followed her.

    Johnson "explaining" the LPF issue to the British public -

    "What they're saying is if THEY buy an expensive handbag, WE have to buy one too. That's really not the way to carry on."

    I mean, c'mon. Honestly.
  • So that's where the business support money hasn't gone - in a pre-election bribe voucher scheme:

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1337395212163948545?s=20
  • kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Just heard Ursula Van Der luyden explain in the most beautifully articulated English the latest position on the Brexit talks. What a contrast to the embarrassing buffoon of a Prime Minister who followed her.

    Johnson "explaining" the LPF issue to the British public -

    "What they're saying is if THEY buy an expensive handbag, WE have to buy one too. That's really not the way to carry on."

    I mean, c'mon. Honestly.
    Cool Britannia. Fit for Brexit.


  • Roger said:

    Just heard Ursula Van Der luyden explain in the most beautifully articulated English the latest position on the Brexit talks. What a contrast to the embarrassing buffoon of a Prime Minister who followed her.

    And yet Johnson apparently speaks very good French. If you will excuse the rather silly headline of this article:

    https://qz.com/1689699/boris-johnson-is-secretly-a-europhile/
    Of course he does, he grew up in Brussels.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Drakeford sinking without trace as he announces the disaster that is covid in Wales

    All outdoor attractions across Wales to close

    He has announced that it is inevitable to move to alert 4 after Christmas unless everyone reduces the number of people we see or mix with

    Blaming the public is not a good look

    Yet it's one popular with yourself and the other PB moralisers, who call for a reporter's career to be destroyed because she broke covid rules.

    Funny old world.
    Yes. And often - although not in Big G's case tbf - the very same people who were almost horizontally relaxed about the Dominic "My rules don't apply to me" Cummings affair.

    This cost quite a few posters their integrity for 24 hours the other day. 6 of them in fact.
    I was remarkably consistent – I thought the Cummings thing was trivial guff (and said so repeatedly on here); ditto Kay Burley et al.

    What isn't trivial is the spinecrawling authoritarian moralising from PBers – asking that a woman's livelihood be removed because she had three mates over for drinks.
    Except that she enthusiastically participated in exactly that kind of spine-crawling authoritarian moralizing, demanding that other people's livelihoods be removed for similarly trivial offences. That she's finally getting a taste of her own medicine is nothing more than natural justice.
    NO. You cannot comment on this. Integrity free zone. Please contact mods and delete your comment.
    Lol - aren't the 24 hours up yet? :wink:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    So that's where the business support money hasn't gone - in a pre-election bribe voucher scheme:

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1337395212163948545?s=20

    Don't forget every child being given an A without bothering with exams. I fear in the longer term that bribe will cost the country even more.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315
    If this deal is done, can we bet on how many months later Boris tells us that it is unacceptable in some way and that we have to breach it?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Cyclefree said:

    If this deal is done, can we bet on how many months later Boris tells us that it is unacceptable in some way and that we have to breach it?

    Zero
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Cyclefree said:

    If this deal is done, can we bet on how many months later Boris tells us that it is unacceptable in some way and that we have to breach it?

    Nah, if Boris puts pen to paper his consistent line will that this is the most splendiferous deal since the Peace of Callias, or something.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    DavidL said:

    Nah, if Boris puts pen to paper his consistent line will that this is the most splendiferous deal since the Peace of Callias, or something.

    He said that last time
  • F1: still 20 minutes left but right now Ocon to Ricciardo (Perez and Leclerc in between) are covered by three-thousandths of a second.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Scott_xP said:
    Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Nah, if Boris puts pen to paper his consistent line will that this is the most splendiferous deal since the Peace of Callias, or something.

    He said that last time
    And your point is?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If this deal is done, can we bet on how many months later Boris tells us that it is unacceptable in some way and that we have to breach it?

    Nah, if Boris puts pen to paper his consistent line will that this is the most splendiferous deal since the Peace of Callias, or something.
    No. Since the australopithecines finished walloping each other next to the big black monolith.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    DavidL said:

    Would either of them not require some coherent thought?
    Is he feeling ok?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1337373146652020736
    Perhaps he's considering some voluntary work with the Samaritans as a form of expiation?
    Hopefully not.
    Imagine being in a state of utter, existential despair...and finding your desperate phone call answered by him.
  • DavidL said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
    It is also the best film version of Christmas Carol yet made, imho.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,223

    kinabalu said:

    FWIW - and I'm giving a massive hostage to fortune here - in contrast to most of the Twitterati, I think that the chances of getting a deal in the next couple of days have improved quite a lot, and it will probably happen.

    My reasoning is that the excuses Boris is giving for not signing up are so fantastical that they won't serve as an excuse for No Deal. Today he's repeated this nonsense:

    Unfortunately at the moment, as you know, there are two key things where we just can’t seem to make progress and that’s this kind of ratchet clause they’ve got in to keep the UK locked in to whatever they want to do in terms of legislation, which obviously doesn’t work.

    We know that is nonsense, he knows it is nonsense, so why is he saying it? If it's to give himself an excuse to 'walk away' and blame the EU, then it's a jolly feeble one. What happens when the EU publish their proposed text?

    If Boris really wants an excuse to walk out, he could use fish, which no-one understands and where the EU position can easily be portrayed as unreasonable.

    So it looks to me as though he's erecting a massive straw dragon which he can heroically slay.

    Fingers crossed that I'm right!

    I think you are probably right. Although it is possible that Johnson simply doesn't understand the EU's position on LPF.

    It's been spelled out very clearly today by Ursula von der Leyen.
    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1337346409054474253

    Yes, it's a huge concession.
    Of course it is. :smile:

    We win. Great deal coming.
    To be honest I just want a deal and everyone wins by moving on in an amicable manner
    With you there. Which is why I'm not planning to get too animated about Johnson doing his old trick of trumpeting an agreement essentially on the EU's terms as being a big win for the UK achieved by his diligence, resilience and hardball negotiation.

    Point is, he has to be confident folk will buy that - and so he'll keep the love - otherwise there's a risk of him not doing it. And we do NOT want that. No Deal would be terrible for the country - and what's worse terrible for me personally since I've been banging on forever about how it's the ultimate Not Happening Event and a deal is therefore certain. I'd look a right plonker.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited December 2020
    The oven ready deal - "you just put it in the oven, and it's ready". His public communications style really is that of a 1950's childrens' programme.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1337399601133916166

    So the "huge concession" from the EU was the deal they were offering all along and BoZo just hasn't taken it
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    DavidL said:

    And your point is?

    He is more than willing to repudiate the most splendiferous deal in the World he already signed
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If this deal is done, can we bet on how many months later Boris tells us that it is unacceptable in some way and that we have to breach it?

    Nah, if Boris puts pen to paper his consistent line will that this is the most splendiferous deal since the Peace of Callias, or something.
    What's rather nice about that allusion is that there's a long tradition of asking undergraduates to determine whether the Peace of Callias ever in fact existed at all...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    Well I had a lovely "takeaway" pint of Amstel in Newcastle City Centre last night. So there's that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    The England figure masks the worsening situation in London, adjacent parts of Kent and Essex, and some of eastern England, offset by containing declines most everywhere else, particularly up North.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    DavidL said:

    In other news:

    My wife is going to see Muppets Christmas Carol tomorrow at the cinema with my daughter.

    I might see this obviously CHRISTMAS film being shown at the same time:
    https://www.odeon.co.uk/films/die-hard/HO00001132/?cinema=522

    Go and see the Muppets Christmas Carol instead. Its absolutely fantastic, probably the best Christmas film.
    It is also the best film version of Christmas Carol yet made, imho.
    I prefer the Alistair Sim one from 1951 , brilliant in my opinion for and old movie.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    moonshine said:

    On topic.

    2020 is the year anyone paying attention realised WE ARE NOT ALONE.

    I continue to be blown away how little traction has been made by the formal releases from the US Navy, statements by senior US congressmen and private sector advisors, as well as convincing eye witness testimony from Top Gun pilots.

    That just takes my breath away.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,755

    Selebian said:

    We have the Peters Projection map, which shows countries according to their actual size, up in our bathroom.
    I am pretty sure that graphic is rubbish - or at least very poorly executed.

    Norway is 1089 miles long.
    The distance from Plymouth to Tangier in Morocco is 1012 miles.

    Look at that graphic at its end point and it certainly doesn't show that.
    I can't tell whether you're joking - apologies if so!

    If you're not, did you not also notice that the Canada-US border becomes a bit harder to cross? Shrinking countries about their centres to their true size while maintaining Mercator projections of centres further exaggerates the distances between them at higher latitudes (the Plymouth-Tangiers distance is very different to the length of Norway in the start, Mercator, projection too).

    The best way to look at a map of the world is on a globe.
    No I was being serious although having read your reply I realise I was looking at things in perhaps a way that was not intended by the makers.

    It stems from me having a little bit of useless information in my mind about how long Norway is. Something the Norwegians are always happy to tell you every single time you visit their country :)
    Map projections have to distort country size, distances between them or both - I knew this and yet I still assumed, due to these projections, that Norway was a lot longer than Britain, which it isn't really (just 25% or so). So your useless information is now my useless information :smile:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,223

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Drakeford sinking without trace as he announces the disaster that is covid in Wales

    All outdoor attractions across Wales to close

    He has announced that it is inevitable to move to alert 4 after Christmas unless everyone reduces the number of people we see or mix with

    Blaming the public is not a good look

    Yet it's one popular with yourself and the other PB moralisers, who call for a reporter's career to be destroyed because she broke covid rules.

    Funny old world.
    Yes. And often - although not in Big G's case tbf - the very same people who were almost horizontally relaxed about the Dominic "My rules don't apply to me" Cummings affair.

    This cost quite a few posters their integrity for 24 hours the other day. 6 of them in fact.
    I was remarkably consistent – I thought the Cummings thing was trivial guff (and said so repeatedly on here); ditto Kay Burley et al.

    What isn't trivial is the spinecrawling authoritarian moralising from PBers – asking that a woman's livelihood be removed because she had three mates over for drinks.
    Except that she enthusiastically participated in exactly that kind of spine-crawling authoritarian moralizing, demanding that other people's livelihoods be removed for similarly trivial offences. That she's finally getting a taste of her own medicine is nothing more than natural justice.
    NO. You cannot comment on this. Integrity free zone. Please contact mods and delete your comment.
    Lol - aren't the 24 hours up yet? :wink:
    Philip's are, yes. But you've only just gone in.

    Not in solitary though. Felix is there doing a 72 stretch.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    edited December 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    The England figure masks the worsening situation in London, adjacent parts of Kent and Essex, and some of eastern England, offset by containing declines most everywhere else, particularly up North.
    Yep. The particular area for concern is now a big square box around London. The most populated bit of England.
    Wonder if we are not going to look back and regret not just going for 2 more weeks?
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    IanB2 said:

    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    The England figure masks the worsening situation in London, adjacent parts of Kent and Essex, and some of eastern England, offset by containing declines most everywhere else, particularly up North.
    You're right, it's picking up speed there, with >20% week-over-week rises for London now.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited December 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Starmer still hasn't regained those three or four points since the start of the Corbyn dispute, but I expect the Tories' lead will soon be overtaken by events, and that will look like nothng.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,136
    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    Terrible figures for Drakeford and Wales, London I expect is heading for Tier 3 along with Essex, Manchester will probably move down to Tier 2
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,136
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.
    Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,223
    Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited December 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.
    Scandalous to even think such things, especially when central Brexit figures like Farage have had nothing whatsoever to do with events like that in the past, and there's no been record of corruption in the current government, either. Take a cold shower and think moral thoughts !
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited December 2020
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Drakeford sinking without trace as he announces the disaster that is covid in Wales

    All outdoor attractions across Wales to close

    He has announced that it is inevitable to move to alert 4 after Christmas unless everyone reduces the number of people we see or mix with

    Blaming the public is not a good look

    Yet it's one popular with yourself and the other PB moralisers, who call for a reporter's career to be destroyed because she broke covid rules.

    Funny old world.
    Yes. And often - although not in Big G's case tbf - the very same people who were almost horizontally relaxed about the Dominic "My rules don't apply to me" Cummings affair.

    This cost quite a few posters their integrity for 24 hours the other day. 6 of them in fact.
    I was remarkably consistent – I thought the Cummings thing was trivial guff (and said so repeatedly on here); ditto Kay Burley et al.

    What isn't trivial is the spinecrawling authoritarian moralising from PBers – asking that a woman's livelihood be removed because she had three mates over for drinks.
    Except that she enthusiastically participated in exactly that kind of spine-crawling authoritarian moralizing, demanding that other people's livelihoods be removed for similarly trivial offences. That she's finally getting a taste of her own medicine is nothing more than natural justice.
    NO. You cannot comment on this. Integrity free zone. Please contact mods and delete your comment.
    Lol - aren't the 24 hours up yet? :wink:
    Philip's are, yes. But you've only just gone in.

    Not in solitary though. Felix is there doing a 72 stretch.
    Excellent company indeed. Personally, I would prefer cum Felici errare, quam cum aliis vera sentire.
  • HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.
    Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved
    Great, so can we please now get the men in grey suits to chuck him out this afternoon and install someone capable of getting a deal sorted.
  • Selebian said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    Just heard Ursula Van Der luyden explain in the most beautifully articulated English the latest position on the Brexit talks. What a contrast to the embarrassing buffoon of a Prime Minister who followed her.

    Johnson "explaining" the LPF issue to the British public -

    "What they're saying is if THEY buy an expensive handbag, WE have to buy one too. That's really not the way to carry on."

    I mean, c'mon. Honestly.
    Cool Britannia. Fit for Brexit.


    Compared to our team, the EU side are lightweights.
    I believe that "nimble and agile" are the preferred terms. Sure I picked them up here.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    Well I had a lovely "takeaway" pint of Amstel in Newcastle City Centre last night. So there's that.
    Would definitely settle for a takeaway pint. Since March I've actually only been to a bar once and there's nothing like a draught pint.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    HYUFD said:

    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    Terrible figures for Drakeford and Wales, London I expect is heading for Tier 3 along with Essex, Manchester will probably move down to Tier 2
    Not great in NI either considering they are loosening today.
    2 weeks just does not work.
    4 does, but only marginally, and not for very long.
    It is a long distance race, not a 400 m.
    Any politician, of any stripe, claiming otherwise is dissembling at best. The North is falling now after around 3 months. Just like the first wave.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,136
    edited December 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=37&LIB=8&Brexit=1&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.3&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=5.7&SCOTBrexit=1&SCOTGreen=1.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=51.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019

    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament with Tories on 312, Labour on 250, the SNP on 58, the LDs on 7, the DUP on 8 and PC on 4 and the SDLP on 2 and the Greens and Alliance each on 1.

    So the Tories and DUP = 320 but Labour + SNP + LDs + PC + Greens + SDLP = 322, so Starmer would still end up PM
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    moonshine said:

    On topic.

    2020 is the year anyone paying attention realised WE ARE NOT ALONE.

    I continue to be blown away how little traction has been made by the formal releases from the US Navy, statements by senior US congressmen and private sector advisors, as well as convincing eye witness testimony from Top Gun pilots.

    That just takes my breath away.
    You’re ego is writing cheques your body can’t cash
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.
    Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved
    I think that’s as good as a “yes” that we’re ever going to get from you.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    Terrible figures for Drakeford and Wales, London I expect is heading for Tier 3 along with Essex, Manchester will probably move down to Tier 2
    Not great in NI either considering they are loosening today.
    2 weeks just does not work.
    4 does, but only marginally, and not for very long.
    It is a long distance race, not a 400 m.
    Any politician, of any stripe, claiming otherwise is dissembling at best. The North is falling now after around 3 months. Just like the first wave.
    At least we are now vaccinating those most at risk. I still cant't believe other countries are not doing this.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.
    Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved
    The first point is extremely faint praise. Even Theresa May conducting a pathetic election campaign managed to beat Corbyn.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    kinabalu said:

    Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.
    I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,136
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.
    Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved
    The first point is extremely faint praise. Even Theresa May conducting a pathetic election campaign managed to beat Corbyn.
    May lost her majority and failed to deliver Brexit, Boris won a Tory majority of 80 and delivered Brexit last January
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.
    Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved
    So what’s he still doing there?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.
    Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved
    The first point is extremely faint praise. Even Theresa May conducting a pathetic election campaign managed to beat Corbyn.
    Just!
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    Terrible figures for Drakeford and Wales, London I expect is heading for Tier 3 along with Essex, Manchester will probably move down to Tier 2
    Not great in NI either considering they are loosening today.
    2 weeks just does not work.
    4 does, but only marginally, and not for very long.
    It is a long distance race, not a 400 m.
    Any politician, of any stripe, claiming otherwise is dissembling at best. The North is falling now after around 3 months. Just like the first wave.
    At least we are now vaccinating those most at risk. I still cant't believe other countries are not doing this.
    It won't be long before other countries follow. For us it was just because all the cards fell in the right places. We backed most of the right vaccines that were ready soonest and our regulatory authority was well placed to approve it quickly.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited December 2020
    DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.
    I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.
    However, their investment in the original Brexit result is already even better-documented. If I'm not very much mistaken, Crispin Odey is one those who has been quite happy to go public with his own strategy, for instance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,136
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.
    Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved
    So what’s he still doing there?
    He will complete Brexit, probably with No Deal, if that goes well he will stay, if it goes badly after a year or 2 he will be replaced by Sunak who will go back to the EU for a Deal (Sunak having voted for May's WA 3 times unlike Boris who only voted for it once)
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    RH1992 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    Terrible figures for Drakeford and Wales, London I expect is heading for Tier 3 along with Essex, Manchester will probably move down to Tier 2
    Not great in NI either considering they are loosening today.
    2 weeks just does not work.
    4 does, but only marginally, and not for very long.
    It is a long distance race, not a 400 m.
    Any politician, of any stripe, claiming otherwise is dissembling at best. The North is falling now after around 3 months. Just like the first wave.
    At least we are now vaccinating those most at risk. I still cant't believe other countries are not doing this.
    It won't be long before other countries follow. For us it was just because all the cards fell in the right places. We backed most of the right vaccines that were ready soonest and our regulatory authority was well placed to approve it quickly.
    3000 people are dying each day in America from Covid. they a vaccine that works great, yet they have delayed using it. Its total madness to me.
  • DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.
    I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.
    However, their investment in the original Brexit result is already even better documented.
    And also typically a load of bollocks.

    Hedge funds have investments is not news. They always do. It would more be news if they didn't.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,238
    edited December 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1337399601133916166

    So the "huge concession" from the EU was the deal they were offering all along and BoZo just hasn't taken it

    I think the Tories don’t really want a deal at all. They have convinced themselves that any restraint - even as a result of an agreement freely entered into - is intolerable. They have come to a belief that sovereignty means being able to do exactly what you want with no adverse consequences whatsoever. They believe that the EU is some sort of evil monster out to get them. So why enter into a deal at all?

    And the enthusiastic way in which they all agreed to tear up an agreement they signed up for shows that they don’t really believe in agreements at all.

    The logic of their own beliefs pushes them to a No Deal / with one bound we are free result. And I think that is where we will end up.

    I hope not. But I fear it. The Tory party has been driven mad by a concept they simply do not understand. It is a shame for the rest of us though who have to face the real world consequences of this obsession.
    Trouble is that I can fully understand why Boris and the Brexiteers don't want to sign a deal. It means acknowledging the gap between dreams and reality.

    But that doesn't alter the need to sign a deal.

    There's a Rolling Stones song which sums up the issue. Let's hope it isn't "Out of Time".
  • RH1992 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gaussian said:

    Another big rise in cases in Wales today: 2,234, up from 1,471 last Friday. Now over 400 per week per 100,000, and most of that is concentrated in the south where some of the areas are posting scary numbers. Hard lock down needed right now there, not after Christmas.

    Northern Ireland ending a circuit breaker today even though numbers are slowly going up. Scotland relaxing restrictions while cases are no better than constant, so the only way is up there as well. England inching up already when it still hasn't really been long enough for the lockdown end to affect the numbers.

    All very depressing.

    Terrible figures for Drakeford and Wales, London I expect is heading for Tier 3 along with Essex, Manchester will probably move down to Tier 2
    Not great in NI either considering they are loosening today.
    2 weeks just does not work.
    4 does, but only marginally, and not for very long.
    It is a long distance race, not a 400 m.
    Any politician, of any stripe, claiming otherwise is dissembling at best. The North is falling now after around 3 months. Just like the first wave.
    At least we are now vaccinating those most at risk. I still cant't believe other countries are not doing this.
    It won't be long before other countries follow. For us it was just because all the cards fell in the right places. We backed most of the right vaccines that were ready soonest and our regulatory authority was well placed to approve it quickly.
    It's more than just luck since our team which was much maligned by the opposition was getting praise from anyone sensible in backing all the leading contenders (except Moderna which are contractually obliged to only supply the USA until March so it was futile to back them).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    Trouble is that I can fully understand why Boris and the Brexiteers don't want to sign a deal. It means acknowledging the gap between dreams and reality.

    But that doesn't alter the need to sign a deal.

    https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1337326960117157889

  • Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1337399601133916166

    So the "huge concession" from the EU was the deal they were offering all along and BoZo just hasn't taken it

    I think the Tories don’t really want a deal at all. They have convinced themselves that any restraint - even as a result of an agreement freely entered into - is intolerable. They have come to a belief that sovereignty means being able to do exactly what you want with no adverse consequences whatsoever. They believe that the EU is some sort of evil monster out to get them. So why enter into a deal at all?

    And the enthusiastic way in which they all agreed to tear up an agreement they signed up for shows that they don’t really believe in agreements at all.

    The logic of their own beliefs pushes them to a No Deal / with one bound we are free result. And I think that is where we will end up.

    I hope not. But I fear it. The Tory party has been driven mad by a concept they simply do not understand. It is a shame for the rest of us though who have to face the real world consequences of this obsession.
    Trouble is that I can fully understand why Boris and the Brexiteers don't want to sign a deal. It means acknowledging the gap between dreams and reality.

    But that doesn't alter the need to sign a deal.

    There's a Rolling Stones song which sums up the issue. Let's hope it isn't "Out of Time".
    Quickly followed by 'You Can't Always Get What You Want'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If this deal is done, can we bet on how many months later Boris tells us that it is unacceptable in some way and that we have to breach it?

    Nah, if Boris puts pen to paper his consistent line will that this is the most splendiferous deal since the Peace of Callias, or something.
    What's rather nice about that allusion is that there's a long tradition of asking undergraduates to determine whether the Peace of Callias ever in fact existed at all...
    Exactly, that is why I chose it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,223
    edited December 2020

    kinabalu said:

    FWIW - and I'm giving a massive hostage to fortune here - in contrast to most of the Twitterati, I think that the chances of getting a deal in the next couple of days have improved quite a lot, and it will probably happen.

    My reasoning is that the excuses Boris is giving for not signing up are so fantastical that they won't serve as an excuse for No Deal. Today he's repeated this nonsense:

    Unfortunately at the moment, as you know, there are two key things where we just can’t seem to make progress and that’s this kind of ratchet clause they’ve got in to keep the UK locked in to whatever they want to do in terms of legislation, which obviously doesn’t work.

    We know that is nonsense, he knows it is nonsense, so why is he saying it? If it's to give himself an excuse to 'walk away' and blame the EU, then it's a jolly feeble one. What happens when the EU publish their proposed text?

    If Boris really wants an excuse to walk out, he could use fish, which no-one understands and where the EU position can easily be portrayed as unreasonable.

    So it looks to me as though he's erecting a massive straw dragon which he can heroically slay.

    Fingers crossed that I'm right!

    I think you are probably right. Although it is possible that Johnson simply doesn't understand the EU's position on LPF.

    It's been spelled out very clearly today by Ursula von der Leyen.
    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1337346409054474253

    Yes, it's a huge concession.
    Of course it is. :smile:

    We win. Great deal coming.
    To be honest I just want a deal and everyone wins by moving on in an amicable manner
    What Johnson has just said- i.e. we must follow EU standards etc- seems to be totally at odds with what Ursela just said at that EU conference. So it's all just bluff and bluster.

    If the UK doesn't go for a deal now - it's because it never wanted one. And the fallout of that is on Johnson
    Yep. To choose stiff general tariffs now over the possibility of selective tariffs in the medium to long future is on the face of it utterly crazy. I was tossing and turning most of the night trying to come up with a valid reason why Johnson might do it. Why he might No Deal. I generated three, which I’d like to share to see if people think they are feasible – I don’t, hence why I’m so confident of a deal – or if they can spot any I’ve missed. They are as follows -

    (1) He thinks that a period of No Deal will drive the EU back to the negotiating table ready to do a deal which does NOT protect their LPF.

    (2) He is planning a big bout of regulation slashing and/or state aid in the short term which he knows will trigger sanctions under the deal and so figures we’re better off just getting on with it from right outside.

    (3) He fears that if he does a deal on LPF it will trigger a Con rebellion and he’ll have to rely on Labour votes to get it through. This being a “Mrs May” look which, if combined with a loss of love amongst the grass roots, could threaten his position, even see him ousted next year.

    What do you guys think?

    (Number 3 is imo the best although I don’t buy it myself. But of course if a plugged in Tory member such as @HYUFD thinks otherwise I will definitely give it further thought.)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited December 2020

    DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.
    I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.
    However, their investment in the original Brexit result is already even better documented.
    And also typically a load of bollocks.

    Hedge funds have investments is not news. They always do. It would more be news if they didn't.
    I see. Odey, for instance, is still donating to the Tories in 2020 IIRC, having been one of the most prolific Vote Leave donors of all four years back.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-donor-crispin-odey-eyes-brexit-jackpot-with-300m-bet-against-british-firms-0lwjbnqsn

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Drakeford sinking without trace as he announces the disaster that is covid in Wales

    All outdoor attractions across Wales to close

    He has announced that it is inevitable to move to alert 4 after Christmas unless everyone reduces the number of people we see or mix with

    Blaming the public is not a good look

    Yet it's one popular with yourself and the other PB moralisers, who call for a reporter's career to be destroyed because she broke covid rules.

    Funny old world.
    Yes. And often - although not in Big G's case tbf - the very same people who were almost horizontally relaxed about the Dominic "My rules don't apply to me" Cummings affair.

    This cost quite a few posters their integrity for 24 hours the other day. 6 of them in fact.
    I was remarkably consistent – I thought the Cummings thing was trivial guff (and said so repeatedly on here); ditto Kay Burley et al.

    What isn't trivial is the spinecrawling authoritarian moralising from PBers – asking that a woman's livelihood be removed because she had three mates over for drinks.
    Except that she enthusiastically participated in exactly that kind of spine-crawling authoritarian moralizing, demanding that other people's livelihoods be removed for similarly trivial offences. That she's finally getting a taste of her own medicine is nothing more than natural justice.
    NO. You cannot comment on this. Integrity free zone. Please contact mods and delete your comment.
    Lol - aren't the 24 hours up yet? :wink:
    Philip's are, yes. But you've only just gone in.

    Not in solitary though. Felix is there doing a 72 stretch.
    What a strange person you are.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831


    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1337399601133916166

    So the "huge concession" from the EU was the deal they were offering all along and BoZo just hasn't taken it

    I think the Tories don’t really want a deal at all. They have convinced themselves that any restraint - even as a result of an agreement freely entered into - is intolerable. They have come to a belief that sovereignty means being able to do exactly what you want with no adverse consequences whatsoever. They believe that the EU is some sort of evil monster out to get them. So why enter into a deal at all?

    And the enthusiastic way in which they all agreed to tear up an agreement they signed up for shows that they don’t really believe in agreements at all.

    The logic of their own beliefs pushes them to a No Deal / with one bound we are free result. And I think that is where we will end up.

    I hope not. But I fear it. The Tory party has been driven mad by a concept they simply do not understand. It is a shame for the rest of us though who have to face the real world consequences of this obsession.
    Trouble is that I can fully understand why Boris and the Brexiteers don't want to sign a deal. It means acknowledging the gap between dreams and reality.

    But that doesn't alter the need to sign a deal.

    There's a Rolling Stones song which sums up the issue. Let's hope it isn't "Out of Time".
    Could he refuse responsibility for the deal by putting it before Parliament without endorsing it himself, and leaving it to Labour and a minority of his own party to get it over the line?
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=37&LIB=8&Brexit=1&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.3&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=5.7&SCOTBrexit=1&SCOTGreen=1.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=51.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019

    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament with Tories on 312, Labour on 250, the SNP on 58, the LDs on 7, the DUP on 8 and PC on 4 and the SDLP on 2 and the Greens and Alliance each on 1.

    So the Tories and DUP = 320 but Labour + SNP + LDs + PC + Greens + SDLP = 322, so Starmer would still end up PM
    Johnson should give the SNP that independence vote :)
  • DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.
    I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.
    However, their investment in the original Brexit result is already even better documented.
    And also typically a load of bollocks.

    Hedge funds have investments is not news. They always do. It would more be news if they didn't.
    Yes, it's utter bollocks. It's similar to the standard Corbynistic garbage of blaming mysterious and shadowy financiers for everything. Quite how those shadowy figures instructed 52% of voters to how to vote is never clear, nor is why they would bother in the first place.

    'Hedge Funds' make a particularly good bogeyman for this conspiracy theory because they sound particularly mysterious and hardly anyone knows what they are. In fact, although originally the term referred to the kind of fund @DougSeal mentioned, i.e. funds that tended to have both long and short positions, nowadays the terms is so widely applied that it's effectively meaningless: they are just Funds, with all manner of different investment strategies.
  • DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.
    I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.
    However, their investment in the original Brexit result is already even better documented.
    And also typically a load of bollocks.

    Hedge funds have investments is not news. They always do. It would more be news if they didn't.
    I see. Odey, for instance, is still donating to the Tories in 2020, IIRC, having been one of the most prolific Vote Leave donors four years back.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-donor-crispin-odey-eyes-brexit-jackpot-with-300m-bet-against-british-firms-0lwjbnqsn

    Yes and your point is?

    Hedge funds always have funds and positions. It doesn't mean a fraction of what ignorant reporters tend to think they mean. Typically reports like this concentrate solely on what the fund is shorting without looking at what they're backing which is to entirely misunderstand how hedge funds work.
  • I wonder how many can identify with this?

    image
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If this deal is done, can we bet on how many months later Boris tells us that it is unacceptable in some way and that we have to breach it?

    Nah, if Boris puts pen to paper his consistent line will that this is the most splendiferous deal since the Peace of Callias, or something.
    This is the bit I don't get, Boris' talent is selling horseshit as gold.
  • Scott_xP said:
    I can't understand why the german carmakers didn't make her pick up the phone?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited December 2020

    DougSeal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not convinced on this because if I'm right and the LPF deal is coming they'll probably lose money. Unless of course Johnson builds up the No Deal fear for a while longer, drives those markets down, then tips them the wink when the big "breakthrough" is about to happen. Clean up twice! Gosh, that would be corrupt. No, I don't believe it.
    I’m not quite sure I believe all of this either. It’s too neat. Hedge funds, as the name suggests, try to offset risks and, indeed, one of the main ways of doing that is by short selling. But the whole point of a hedge fund is, yes, to maximise returns but also offset risk. It’s one hell of a risk to trash a major economy, within which the same hedge funds will undoubtedly have many investments, just for a short term return.
    However, their investment in the original Brexit result is already even better documented.
    And also typically a load of bollocks.

    Hedge funds have investments is not news. They always do. It would more be news if they didn't.
    Yes, it's utter bollocks. It's similar to the standard Corbynistic garbage of blaming mysterious and shadowy financiers for everything. Quite how those shadowy figures instructed 52% of voters to how to vote is never clear, nor is why they would bother in the first place.

    'Hedge Funds' make a particularly good bogeyman for this conspiracy theory because they sound particularly mysterious and hardly anyone knows what they are. In fact, although originally the term referred to the kind of fund @DougSeal mentioned, i.e. funds that tended to have both long and short positions, nowadays the terms is so widely applied that it's effectively meaningless: they are just Funds, with all manner of different investment strategies.
    The idea that hedge funds have invested in Brexit, and the post-2015 Tories, for the very specific reasons outlined, isn't at all new or controversial. The FT, which is hardly a Corbynist outlet, has run multiple pieces on it for years.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most Tories knew, when they picked him, that he was a child being put up for a man’s job.
    Boris was picked solely to beat Corbyn and deliver Brexit, both of which he achieved
    The first point is extremely faint praise. Even Theresa May conducting a pathetic election campaign managed to beat Corbyn.
    May lost her majority and failed to deliver Brexit, Boris won a Tory majority of 80 and delivered Brexit last January
    Are you seriously trying to claim that Theresa May did not beat Corbyn in the 2017 GE?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    Gaussian said:


    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1337399601133916166

    So the "huge concession" from the EU was the deal they were offering all along and BoZo just hasn't taken it

    I think the Tories don’t really want a deal at all. They have convinced themselves that any restraint - even as a result of an agreement freely entered into - is intolerable. They have come to a belief that sovereignty means being able to do exactly what you want with no adverse consequences whatsoever. They believe that the EU is some sort of evil monster out to get them. So why enter into a deal at all?

    And the enthusiastic way in which they all agreed to tear up an agreement they signed up for shows that they don’t really believe in agreements at all.

    The logic of their own beliefs pushes them to a No Deal / with one bound we are free result. And I think that is where we will end up.

    I hope not. But I fear it. The Tory party has been driven mad by a concept they simply do not understand. It is a shame for the rest of us though who have to face the real world consequences of this obsession.
    Trouble is that I can fully understand why Boris and the Brexiteers don't want to sign a deal. It means acknowledging the gap between dreams and reality.

    But that doesn't alter the need to sign a deal.

    There's a Rolling Stones song which sums up the issue. Let's hope it isn't "Out of Time".
    Could he refuse responsibility for the deal by putting it before Parliament without endorsing it himself, and leaving it to Labour and a minority of his own party to get it over the line?
    If a majority of the Tories oppose the deal they'd defenestrate any leader who put it to the House. This is what finally lead to May's demise, when she started making moves to compromise with the Opposition.
This discussion has been closed.