politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

Betting against the GOP looks to be the value bet in Georgia – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,691
edited November 2020 in General
imageBetting against the GOP looks to be the value bet in Georgia – politicalbetting.com

Make no mistake the runoff elections for two vacant Georgia senate seats on January 5th are about the most important non-Presidential US election in recent times.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    Hope so.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2020
    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also say in advance how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Utterly OT and haven't checked the detail, but a major leak indicates Dragon's Dogma 2 is pencilled in for 2022.

    If it does justice to the original that could be excellent. Provided it isn't like the not-sequel that was pointlessly online.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere*. Germany don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.

    * Exception of countries with state sponsored spying or incredibly low levels because they totally isolated themselves by shutting their borders.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,271
    Are we talking about the BF market called 'USA - Congressional Elections - Number of Democrat Senate Seats'?

    The rules talk about elections taking place in 2020.

  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere. Germant don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.
    China have proved that the way to beat this (without a vaccine) is mass testing - to mop up all asymptotic cases.

    Something to note for future pandemics, i guess.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,203

    Here is some more detail from gov.uk

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-winter-plan
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also say in advance how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    FPT but relevant to this, but it seems little remarked upon to me that the Tiers system has changed significantly.

    Seems to me that effectively Tier 2 is what Tier 3 used to be ... And Tier 3 is effectively now a half lockdown, combined with mass lateral flow testing in those regions.

    Should definitely be enough to keep R below one until a vaccine is rolled out I hope.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,271
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1330901246081896450
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited November 2020
    Reading the patronising, dictatorial way Johnson is handing down these commandments.

    FFS, what is he on?

    We have a vaccine!!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,334
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere. Germant don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.
    I was surprised to read that Germany's test and trace is missing 75% of cases
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2020
    Gallowgate said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere. Germant don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.
    China have proved that the way to beat this (without a vaccine) is mass testing - to mop up all asymptotic cases.

    Something to note for future pandemics, i guess.
    Well also with state sponsored spying, locking people away for months and dacrocian measures like we saw at Shanghai airport yesterday where they herded everybody in the basement.

    But i have said for ages, you need to find this virus, not wait for it to come to you.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,126
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also say in advance how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    This "Captain Hindsight" is the guy who advocated for a national lockdown in accordance with the scientific advice several weeks before the government implemented it (by which time it was much less effective)? Just checking, in case you are inadvertently chatting shit.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    From a practical, personal, perspective, there's no real difference between the new Tier 2 and Tier 3. It literally does not matter.
  • Options
    LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2020
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also say in advance how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    This "Captain Hindsight" is the guy who advocated for a national lockdown in accordance with the scientific advice several weeks before the government implemented it (by which time it was much less effective)? Just checking, in case you are inadvertently chatting shit.
    No he advocated for a firebreak, which has failed in NI and looking iffy how well it has worked in Wales, based on scientific advice where the model was total horse shit.

    If he had advocated a proper lockdown earlier, I think he would have been right.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    contrarian said:

    Reading the patronising, dictatorial way Johnson is handing down these commandments.

    FFS, what is he on?

    We have a vaccine!!

    Yes we have a vaccine which means we need to contain the virus until the vaccine is rolled out.

    The argument that we may never get a vaccine so need to let the virus rip and live with it has been killed stone dead.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited November 2020
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1330901246081896450

    Hodges is absolutely right on this.

    It looks effing horrendous.

    No Pubs.

    For four months.

    Through an English winter.

    On a dodgy pre-text.

    Jeez.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,356
    londonpubman said:


    Here is some more detail from gov.uk

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-winter-plan

    thanks for that.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,271
    contrarian said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1330901246081896450

    Hodges is absolutely right on this.

    It looks effing horrendous.

    No Pubs.

    For four months.

    Through an English winter.

    On a dodgy pre-text.

    Jeez.
    Are we getting 'dodgy graph hour' later or are they saving that for Thursday?
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    LadyG said:

    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
    Yeh but that will be January.

    At which point we will have three more months with no pubs. Three more months....
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2020
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere. Germant don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.
    I was surprised to read that Germany's test and trace is missing 75% of cases
    It is the nature of the virus and trying to manually follow up. By the time you know you have it, it is several days since you caught and you have been wandering around. Without accurate personal tracking, it is impossible to find many of those people and of those that you do it takes hours / days to contact them manually.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,271
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1330862292410511362

    Isn't New Year bigger in Scotland than Xmas?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,334
    contrarian said:

    LadyG said:

    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
    Yeh but that will be January.

    At which point we will have three more months with no pubs. Three more months....
    As I understand pubs that serve food can remain open though not in the highest tier
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,780
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also say in advance how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    This "Captain Hindsight" is the guy who advocated for a national lockdown in accordance with the scientific advice several weeks before the government implemented it (by which time it was much less effective)? Just checking, in case you are inadvertently chatting shit.
    Which would have started with lower levels of infection, and occurred during half term so would have been far more effective and could have been shorter too.

    With this relaxation of the rules we will need another one in January or February. 25 days of extra lockdown then for 5 days at Xmas and small crowds at sports events seems like a terrible deal.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,271
    Boris lost sound.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    Gallowgate said:

    From a practical, personal, perspective, there's no real difference between the new Tier 2 and Tier 3. It literally does not matter.

    Ditto, although I've managed to lose my sense of taste overnight..

    Yes you can all make the obvious joke.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,334
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1330862292410511362

    Isn't New Year bigger in Scotland than Xmas?

    Much bigger
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    edited November 2020
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1330862292410511362

    Isn't New Year bigger in Scotland than Xmas?

    It is, which is why they have the 2nd of January as a bank holiday, to recover.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1330862292410511362

    Isn't New Year bigger in Scotland than Xmas?

    Good. Very sensible.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,271
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1330862292410511362

    Isn't New Year bigger in Scotland than Xmas?

    Much bigger
    What was Sturgeon given to agree to this then?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,260
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere. Germant don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.
    I was surprised to read that Germany's test and trace is missing 75% of cases
    It all rests on the old Flanders and Swan song, "The English, the English, the English are best, so up with the English and down with the rest".
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,780
    Gallowgate said:

    From a practical, personal, perspective, there's no real difference between the new Tier 2 and Tier 3. It literally does not matter.

    Would you never go for a meal?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,871
    londonpubman said:


    Here is some more detail from gov.uk

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-winter-plan

    Well, yes, I'm sure somebody will point up the inconsistencies and anomalies before too long. It doesn't read hugely different to the pre-lockdown Tier arrangements.

    WFH is going to remain the flavour of the month for many through the winter and on a dark, cold Monday morning can you blame those who don't relish the walk to the station or the bus stop?

    Will I be able to have Sunday lunch with my brother ? So much depends into which Tier a region is placed and as has already been pointed out, "London" is a big place but administratively is one place - I'd argue Kent is a big place too so perhaps London will be Tier 2 and Kent Tier 3 which will scupper that - we'll see.

    It would be helpful to have some publicised measures determining how and when an area moves up and down a Tier. I presume the aim is to have everywhere in Tier 1 as soon as possible - laudable enough and aided, one would hope, by the vaccination programme. I have a lot of doubts over the logistics of the programme and I also suspect a minority of people will eschew the vaccine or (like my brother) have issues with a compromised immune system.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,809
    edited November 2020
    NickPalmer said:

    isam said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...

    Your use of ‘Shagger’ as a pejorative term baffles me. How many blokes would resent it?!
    Whatever. Why don't we skip the fancy names (Shagger, Captain Hindsight, etc etc) , if only to avoid baffling new readers? It makes us look cliquey (the reports that Cummings and associates had a funny name for everyone is a good example)..
    FPT Is 'Shagger' not universal, then? I've had friends in emails which have nothing to do with politics come out with such things as "Eat an icecream for Bozo" (admittedly in that case when being sarcastic about the flood fo summer visitors which Mr Johnson had released to my friend's West Country home).
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,206
    edited November 2020
    contrarian said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1330901246081896450

    Hodges is absolutely right on this.

    It looks effing horrendous.

    No Pubs.

    For four months.

    Through an English winter.

    On a dodgy pre-text.

    Jeez.
    There really is more to life then pubs. Or should be for a life well lived. Read a good book. Phone a friend for a chat. Watch endless re-runs of Frasier. Before you know the vaccine will be in most peoples arms and a glorious summer of freedom beckons.
    (corrected hat to chat, although the original was funnier...)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    I assume we've done this.

    https://twitter.com/IanMurrayMP/status/1330829886387318787
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited November 2020
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    LadyG said:

    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
    Yeh but that will be January.

    At which point we will have three more months with no pubs. Three more months....
    As I understand pubs that serve food can remain open though not in the highest tier
    And what's the betting we are ALL in the highest tier.

    Don;t you see? its lockdown by another name. For almost everybody. Until the end of March. Its sage's final victory.

    Everybody is going to remember this. And everybody is going to remember it was the Tories that did it to them.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,334
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere. Germant don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.
    I was surprised to read that Germany's test and trace is missing 75% of cases
    It all rests on the old Flanders and Swan song, "The English, the English, the English are best, so up with the English and down with the rest".
    Not sure how relevant that is to be honest
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,263
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1330901246081896450

    Teesside went into lockdown in Tier 2 and is coming out in Tier 3
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,780
    stodge said:

    londonpubman said:


    Here is some more detail from gov.uk

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-winter-plan

    Well, yes, I'm sure somebody will point up the inconsistencies and anomalies before too long. It doesn't read hugely different to the pre-lockdown Tier arrangements.

    WFH is going to remain the flavour of the month for many through the winter and on a dark, cold Monday morning can you blame those who don't relish the walk to the station or the bus stop?

    Will I be able to have Sunday lunch with my brother ? So much depends into which Tier a region is placed and as has already been pointed out, "London" is a big place but administratively is one place - I'd argue Kent is a big place too so perhaps London will be Tier 2 and Kent Tier 3 which will scupper that - we'll see.

    It would be helpful to have some publicised measures determining how and when an area moves up and down a Tier. I presume the aim is to have everywhere in Tier 1 as soon as possible - laudable enough and aided, one would hope, by the vaccination programme. I have a lot of doubts over the logistics of the programme and I also suspect a minority of people will eschew the vaccine or (like my brother) have issues with a compromised immune system.
    We will all be in tier 3 post the Xmas party season anyway.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,206
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1330862292410511362

    Isn't New Year bigger in Scotland than Xmas?

    Def for some. And no relaxation for Diwali etc etc etc.
    At the end of the day, for the majority, Christmas is the great family occasion.

    In other news my Uni is to close for two whole weeks over the Christmas, so no need for me to even book leave... Small wins after a tough year...
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,260
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1330862292410511362

    Isn't New Year bigger in Scotland than Xmas?

    Conservative majority at Holyrood now nailed on for May!
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,050
    https://twitter.com/IvoGraham/status/1330849359076995073

    Can't believe TSE missed this
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,334
    contrarian said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    LadyG said:

    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
    Yeh but that will be January.

    At which point we will have three more months with no pubs. Three more months....
    As I understand pubs that serve food can remain open though not in the highest tier
    And what's the betting we are ALL in the highest tier.

    Don;t you see? its lockdown by another name. For almost everybody. Until the end of March. Its sage's final victory.

    Everybody is going to remember this. And everybody is going to remember it was the Tories that did it to them.
    Public opinion seems to heavily favour lockdowns
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,270
    LadyG said:

    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
    Exactly. And it's nearly Dec now. 2021 before you know it, then a few short weeks and you've got March on the horizon. And once March is here it's more or less Easter, Easter being the gateway to early summer, then summer proper and close to 100% normality for all those who want normality back. This is over.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IvoGraham/status/1330849359076995073

    Can't believe TSE missed this

    Oh that is brilliant.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,700
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere*. Germany don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.

    * Exception of countries with state sponsored spying or incredibly low levels because they totally isolated themselves by shutting their borders.
    It works (or has until now) pretty well in Japan, which doesn’t fall into either category.

    But it ought to have been obvious far sooner that it wouldn’t here - and that mass test and isolate would.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,126
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also say in advance how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    This "Captain Hindsight" is the guy who advocated for a national lockdown in accordance with the scientific advice several weeks before the government implemented it (by which time it was much less effective)? Just checking, in case you are inadvertently chatting shit.
    No he advocated for a firebreak, which has failed in NI and looking iffy how well it has worked in Wales, based on scientific advice where the model was total horse shit.

    If he had advocated a proper lockdown earlier, I think he would have been right.
    Hmm is "lockdown good, firebreak bad" the latest party slogan painted on the side of the barn?
    Welsh daily cases seem to have fallen by about a third since the start of their lockdown while English cases are plateauing. Doesn't seem like a bad performance, especially given proximity to high infection areas of England.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    contrarian said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    LadyG said:

    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
    Yeh but that will be January.

    At which point we will have three more months with no pubs. Three more months....
    As I understand pubs that serve food can remain open though not in the highest tier
    And what's the betting we are ALL in the highest tier.

    Don;t you see? its lockdown by another name. For almost everybody. Until the end of March. Its sage's final victory.

    Everybody is going to remember this. And everybody is going to remember it was the Tories that did it to them.
    Because Labour / the SNP / Lib Dems / Greens were offering a different strategy? Or was it just Farage, who supported the first lockdown because he could see the polling was against him (which it still is)?
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,263
    Carnyx said:

    NickPalmer said:

    isam said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...

    Your use of ‘Shagger’ as a pejorative term baffles me. How many blokes would resent it?!
    Whatever. Why don't we skip the fancy names (Shagger, Captain Hindsight, etc etc) , if only to avoid baffling new readers? It makes us look cliquey (the reports that Cummings and associates had a funny name for everyone is a good example)..
    FPT Is 'Shagger' not universal, then? I've had friends in emails which have nothing to do with politics come out with such things as "Eat an icecream for Bozo" (admittedly in that case when being sarcastic about the flood fo summer visitors which Mr Johnson had released to my friend's West Country home).
    Shagger isn't a fancy name. Shagger is a badge of shame. As I said on the previous thread we're living in the 2020s not an episode of Men Behaving Badly. He cheats on every partner and leaves behind a string of abandoned children. It speaks masses about his lack of character with everything that means for the country he leads.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,871
    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    As I understand pubs that serve food can remain open though not in the highest tier

    Assuming London is in Tier 2 , my local cafe can fully re-open on the 2nd which will be good news for them. I don't care a lot about Spoons to be honest but the food isn't too bad. I confess a pub for me is a way to sit, read my Racing Post and have something to eat but I prefer the ambience of the cafe - the food is better and the old men a shade grumpier.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,260
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere. Germant don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.
    I was surprised to read that Germany's test and trace is missing 75% of cases
    It all rests on the old Flanders and Swan song, "The English, the English, the English are best, so up with the English and down with the rest".
    Not sure how relevant that is to be honest
    In the grand scheme of things it isn't, but we have a Prime Minister who has claimed our system will be world beating, so under those conditions, maybe a little, but not much.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,024
    contrarian said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    LadyG said:

    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
    Yeh but that will be January.

    At which point we will have three more months with no pubs. Three more months....
    As I understand pubs that serve food can remain open though not in the highest tier
    And what's the betting we are ALL in the highest tier.

    Don;t you see? its lockdown by another name. For almost everybody. Until the end of March. Its sage's final victory.

    Everybody is going to remember this. And everybody is going to remember it was the Tories that did it to them.
    I doubt we will all be in Tier 3 –– seems highly unlikely.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    BluestBlue said:

    contrarian said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    LadyG said:

    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
    Yeh but that will be January.

    At which point we will have three more months with no pubs. Three more months....
    As I understand pubs that serve food can remain open though not in the highest tier
    And what's the betting we are ALL in the highest tier.

    Don;t you see? its lockdown by another name. For almost everybody. Until the end of March. Its sage's final victory.

    Everybody is going to remember this. And everybody is going to remember it was the Tories that did it to them.
    Because Labour / the SNP / Lib Dems / Greens were offering a different strategy? Or was it just Farage, who supported the first lockdown because he could see the polling was against him (which it still is)?
    Farage is magnificent, he went from Herd Immunity is evil in March to I support Herd Immunity.

    Now that we have vaccines advocating Herd Immunity might be sub optimal politics.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,263
    noneoftheabove said:

    stodge said:

    londonpubman said:


    Here is some more detail from gov.uk

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-winter-plan

    Well, yes, I'm sure somebody will point up the inconsistencies and anomalies before too long. It doesn't read hugely different to the pre-lockdown Tier arrangements.

    WFH is going to remain the flavour of the month for many through the winter and on a dark, cold Monday morning can you blame those who don't relish the walk to the station or the bus stop?

    Will I be able to have Sunday lunch with my brother ? So much depends into which Tier a region is placed and as has already been pointed out, "London" is a big place but administratively is one place - I'd argue Kent is a big place too so perhaps London will be Tier 2 and Kent Tier 3 which will scupper that - we'll see.

    It would be helpful to have some publicised measures determining how and when an area moves up and down a Tier. I presume the aim is to have everywhere in Tier 1 as soon as possible - laudable enough and aided, one would hope, by the vaccination programme. I have a lot of doubts over the logistics of the programme and I also suspect a minority of people will eschew the vaccine or (like my brother) have issues with a compromised immune system.
    We will all be in tier 3 post the Xmas party season anyway.
    Doubt it. Tier 3 is nowhere near restrictive enough to manage a big spike. And next time we have "lockdown" perhaps we could actually lockdown instead of living in a bizarre world where Smyths Toys is an essential retailer.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,271
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IvoGraham/status/1330849359076995073

    Can't believe TSE missed this

    Oh that is brilliant.
    Funny. But not accurate: another Oxford rule is that the comma is used consistently throughout a text.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,260
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    contrarian said:

    LadyG said:

    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
    Yeh but that will be January.

    At which point we will have three more months with no pubs. Three more months....
    As I understand pubs that serve food can remain open though not in the highest tier
    And what's the betting we are ALL in the highest tier.

    Don;t you see? its lockdown by another name. For almost everybody. Until the end of March. Its sage's final victory.

    Everybody is going to remember this. And everybody is going to remember it was the Tories that did it to them.
    Public opinion seems to heavily favour lockdowns
    All the Bristolian and Brummie Christmas shoppers in Newport and Cardiff on Saturday might disagree.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,871
    It also seems there may be a way back to the racecourse in the not too distant.

    Wincanton on the 3rd may be able to have spectators though perhaps only 2000 and it'll be interesting to see which areas will start in Tier 1 (Shetland, Orkney) and have racecourses.

    I look forward to seeing where Surrey and East Sussex sit in the scheme of things - a pre-Christmas afternoon at Leafy beckons - as long as Barry Dennis isn't throwing Christmas puds at you.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    edited November 2020
    So Tier 3 is basically Tier 2 but with all hospitality closed. Isn't that what we have now? The shops being open or closed is not really important, from a personal perspective, as pretty much everything can be ordered online with click and collect, even now.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,809
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Carnyx said:

    NickPalmer said:

    isam said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...

    Your use of ‘Shagger’ as a pejorative term baffles me. How many blokes would resent it?!
    Whatever. Why don't we skip the fancy names (Shagger, Captain Hindsight, etc etc) , if only to avoid baffling new readers? It makes us look cliquey (the reports that Cummings and associates had a funny name for everyone is a good example)..
    FPT Is 'Shagger' not universal, then? I've had friends in emails which have nothing to do with politics come out with such things as "Eat an icecream for Bozo" (admittedly in that case when being sarcastic about the flood fo summer visitors which Mr Johnson had released to my friend's West Country home).
    Shagger isn't a fancy name. Shagger is a badge of shame. As I said on the previous thread we're living in the 2020s not an episode of Men Behaving Badly. He cheats on every partner and leaves behind a string of abandoned children. It speaks masses about his lack of character with everything that means for the country he leads.
    I do appreciate that - just wondered if it was a PB-only name, especially as Mr Johnson's, erm, history is so widely known.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    RochdalePioneers said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    stodge said:

    londonpubman said:


    Here is some more detail from gov.uk

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-winter-plan

    Well, yes, I'm sure somebody will point up the inconsistencies and anomalies before too long. It doesn't read hugely different to the pre-lockdown Tier arrangements.

    WFH is going to remain the flavour of the month for many through the winter and on a dark, cold Monday morning can you blame those who don't relish the walk to the station or the bus stop?

    Will I be able to have Sunday lunch with my brother ? So much depends into which Tier a region is placed and as has already been pointed out, "London" is a big place but administratively is one place - I'd argue Kent is a big place too so perhaps London will be Tier 2 and Kent Tier 3 which will scupper that - we'll see.

    It would be helpful to have some publicised measures determining how and when an area moves up and down a Tier. I presume the aim is to have everywhere in Tier 1 as soon as possible - laudable enough and aided, one would hope, by the vaccination programme. I have a lot of doubts over the logistics of the programme and I also suspect a minority of people will eschew the vaccine or (like my brother) have issues with a compromised immune system.
    We will all be in tier 3 post the Xmas party season anyway.
    Doubt it. Tier 3 is nowhere near restrictive enough to manage a big spike. And next time we have "lockdown" perhaps we could actually lockdown instead of living in a bizarre world where Smyths Toys is an essential retailer.
    Tier 3 is not too different to what we have now. All hospitality closed. Shops may be open but many shops are open now, anyway. Especially the shops people tend to go to on a regular basis.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    I can understand why the government is doing this but I suspect you'll see plenty of people objecting to this.

    https://twitter.com/tonyroe/status/1330906867233644549
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1330862292410511362

    Isn't New Year bigger in Scotland than Xmas?

    Much bigger
    I would actually say not. Depends on your age. 18-25 it probably is. Before and after that I would say not.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,780
    How long before people realise these strengthened tiers are actually weaker? Tonight or tomorrow?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2020
    Nigelb said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere*. Germany don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.

    * Exception of countries with state sponsored spying or incredibly low levels because they totally isolated themselves by shutting their borders.
    It works (or has until now) pretty well in Japan, which doesn’t fall into either category.

    But it ought to have been obvious far sooner that it wouldn’t here - and that mass test and isolate would.
    I know they hit 2000 daily cases once before and they managed to get on top of it, but...

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/22/japans-covid-19-cases-hit-record-high-for-fourth-day

    Graph looking a but worrying there.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,869
    Biden’s new Secretary of State on French tv explaining how important US EU relations are. He speaks fluent French as he spent many years in Paris .

    In other news German press are reporting Nissan will close its UK factory , oh well at least the Sunderland folk can wave their new blue passports and sing Rule Brittania on their way to the job centre! Don’t expect any sympathy from Remainers , you wanted a good hard Brexit , enjoy it !
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1330862292410511362

    Isn't New Year bigger in Scotland than Xmas?

    Should six acquintence be forgot?
  • Options
    RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Gallowgate said:

    So Tier 3 is basically Tier 2 but with all hospitality closed. Isn't that what we have now? The shops being open or closed is not really important, from a personal perspective, as pretty much everything can be ordered online with click and collect, even now.

    Personal care such as the hairdressers (much welcomed by me, I need a haircut in the next couple of weeks) and fitness facilities such as gyms are allowed, but otherwise you're right.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I've just had an email saying our office Xmas party is booked for a central London location in mid December.....

    So if the place has taken the booking.....???
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Carnyx said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Carnyx said:

    NickPalmer said:

    isam said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...

    Your use of ‘Shagger’ as a pejorative term baffles me. How many blokes would resent it?!
    Whatever. Why don't we skip the fancy names (Shagger, Captain Hindsight, etc etc) , if only to avoid baffling new readers? It makes us look cliquey (the reports that Cummings and associates had a funny name for everyone is a good example)..
    FPT Is 'Shagger' not universal, then? I've had friends in emails which have nothing to do with politics come out with such things as "Eat an icecream for Bozo" (admittedly in that case when being sarcastic about the flood fo summer visitors which Mr Johnson had released to my friend's West Country home).
    Shagger isn't a fancy name. Shagger is a badge of shame. As I said on the previous thread we're living in the 2020s not an episode of Men Behaving Badly. He cheats on every partner and leaves behind a string of abandoned children. It speaks masses about his lack of character with everything that means for the country he leads.
    I do appreciate that - just wondered if it was a PB-only name, especially as Mr Johnson's, erm, history is so widely known.
    'Shagger' is just uninventive. I'm still trying to make 'Sir Keira Knightly' a thing...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2020
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also say in advance how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    This "Captain Hindsight" is the guy who advocated for a national lockdown in accordance with the scientific advice several weeks before the government implemented it (by which time it was much less effective)? Just checking, in case you are inadvertently chatting shit.
    No he advocated for a firebreak, which has failed in NI and looking iffy how well it has worked in Wales, based on scientific advice where the model was total horse shit.

    If he had advocated a proper lockdown earlier, I think he would have been right.
    Hmm is "lockdown good, firebreak bad" the latest party slogan painted on the side of the barn?
    Welsh daily cases seem to have fallen by about a third since the start of their lockdown while English cases are plateauing. Doesn't seem like a bad performance, especially given proximity to high infection areas of England.
    Not a party thing...I have explained at length my objection to this idea of a quick 2 week break and did so as soon as it was suggested. No hindsight.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,780
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also say in advance how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    This "Captain Hindsight" is the guy who advocated for a national lockdown in accordance with the scientific advice several weeks before the government implemented it (by which time it was much less effective)? Just checking, in case you are inadvertently chatting shit.
    No he advocated for a firebreak, which has failed in NI and looking iffy how well it has worked in Wales, based on scientific advice where the model was total horse shit.

    If he had advocated a proper lockdown earlier, I think he would have been right.
    Hmm is "lockdown good, firebreak bad" the latest party slogan painted on the side of the barn?
    Welsh daily cases seem to have fallen by about a third since the start of their lockdown while English cases are plateauing. Doesn't seem like a bad performance, especially given proximity to high infection areas of England.
    Not a party thing...I have explained at length my objection to this idea of a quick 2 week break.
    Whereas you love the 4 week break that achieved less more slowly......of course its not partisan at all!
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    RH1992 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    So Tier 3 is basically Tier 2 but with all hospitality closed. Isn't that what we have now? The shops being open or closed is not really important, from a personal perspective, as pretty much everything can be ordered online with click and collect, even now.

    Personal care such as the hairdressers (much welcomed by me, I need a haircut in the next couple of weeks) and fitness facilities such as gyms are allowed, but otherwise you're right.
    Seems contrary to common sense that having your hair cut is less dangerous than say, having a coffee in Costa, or having a quick pint in the pub. They both take a similar amount of time and 1 of them requires much more close contact.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,271
    Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, told CNBC that while he had backed the president and had supported his right to pursue legal challenges, “the idea that a sitting president would try to, I don’t know, pressure, cajole, persuade state legislators to dismiss the will of their voters” was “completely inconsistent with any kind of truly democratic society.”

    NYTimes
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,334
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also announcement straight away how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    He's right about the effective abandonment of track and isolate.
    The reality is track and trace doesn't work anywhere. Germant don't get 75% of cases. Government oversold this as some miracle system to save us all.
    I was surprised to read that Germany's test and trace is missing 75% of cases
    It all rests on the old Flanders and Swan song, "The English, the English, the English are best, so up with the English and down with the rest".
    Not sure how relevant that is to be honest
    In the grand scheme of things it isn't, but we have a Prime Minister who has claimed our system will be world beating, so under those conditions, maybe a little, but not much.
    It does seem test and trace is more complex than many consider and it is rather stark when Germany admits only 25% success
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,700
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IvoGraham/status/1330849359076995073

    Can't believe TSE missed this

    Oh that is brilliant.
    I didn’t realise Ferrari had produced a vaccine.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    edited November 2020
    contrarian said:

    I've just had an email saying our office Xmas party is booked for a central London location in mid December.....

    So if the place has taken the booking.....???

    They probably need the cash, and will cancel closer to the time, then tell you you're not eligible for a refund but a credit note as per their terms and conditions.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,350
    londonpubman said:


    Here is some more detail from gov.uk

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-winter-plan

    Had a quick read. There will always be practical problems but in general it looks quite reasonable to me, once I got past the tiresome Borisism about "the cavalry is almost here". The section on Christmas looks fudged, but that's better than wild relaxation followed by a month of lockdown. I think it'll be pretty widely accepted.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2020
    nico679 said:

    Biden’s new Secretary of State on French tv explaining how important US EU relations are. He speaks fluent French as he spent many years in Paris .

    In other news German press are reporting Nissan will close its UK factory , oh well at least the Sunderland folk can wave their new blue passports and sing Rule Brittania on their way to the job centre! Don’t expect any sympathy from Remainers , you wanted a good hard Brexit , enjoy it !

    New Nissan Qashqai to be built at Sunderland plant - 13th Nov 2020
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-54931105

    Changes their mind in a week?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2020
    noneoftheabove said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also say in advance how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    This "Captain Hindsight" is the guy who advocated for a national lockdown in accordance with the scientific advice several weeks before the government implemented it (by which time it was much less effective)? Just checking, in case you are inadvertently chatting shit.
    No he advocated for a firebreak, which has failed in NI and looking iffy how well it has worked in Wales, based on scientific advice where the model was total horse shit.

    If he had advocated a proper lockdown earlier, I think he would have been right.
    Hmm is "lockdown good, firebreak bad" the latest party slogan painted on the side of the barn?
    Welsh daily cases seem to have fallen by about a third since the start of their lockdown while English cases are plateauing. Doesn't seem like a bad performance, especially given proximity to high infection areas of England.
    Not a party thing...I have explained at length my objection to this idea of a quick 2 week break.
    Whereas you love the 4 week break that achieved less more slowly......of course its not partisan at all!
    You seen my posts on here every day right...criticising the government consistently over their handling.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,260
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So captain hindsight says tiers are rubbish, government need to again negotiation with every council, but must not waste anytime announcing which tier each place is in and also say in advance how long they will be in that for...

    Thanks for that.

    This "Captain Hindsight" is the guy who advocated for a national lockdown in accordance with the scientific advice several weeks before the government implemented it (by which time it was much less effective)? Just checking, in case you are inadvertently chatting shit.
    No he advocated for a firebreak, which has failed in NI and looking iffy how well it has worked in Wales, based on scientific advice where the model was total horse shit.

    If he had advocated a proper lockdown earlier, I think he would have been right.
    Hmm is "lockdown good, firebreak bad" the latest party slogan painted on the side of the barn?
    Welsh daily cases seem to have fallen by about a third since the start of their lockdown while English cases are plateauing. Doesn't seem like a bad performance, especially given proximity to high infection areas of England.

    Although a two week "firebreak" really was too short in Wales, however the withering criticism from Johnson, Hancock, Andrew R.T. and Paul Davies made the three or four week effort called for by Plaid politically unacceptable at the time.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,307
    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    So. London. Tier 2 or Tier 3?

    *prays*

    I was wondering why the story about North Kent now being the worst hotspot in the country got such prominence on the lunchtime news. Then I remembered that the new tiers we will return to on 2 December are due to be announced by the clown this Thursday. Clearly we are looking at a rather different geography from last time.
    Much of northern England looks doomed to Tier 3. South Wales, maybe chunks of central Scotland. Kent is bad.

    The only really dodgy borough in London is Havering (why?!?)

    If they close down the entire hospitality industry in our capital city, through Christmas, because of..... Havering.... then, well, fuck that shit
    Why London doesn't cede Havering to Essex, I don't know. They deserve each other, and always did.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,780
    contrarian said:

    I've just had an email saying our office Xmas party is booked for a central London location in mid December.....

    So if the place has taken the booking.....???

    Indoor business events are allowed in tiers 1 & 2 now with the extra "strengthening", just in time for xmas parties, sorry socially distanced business meetings.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,506
    BluestBlue said:

    Carnyx said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Carnyx said:

    NickPalmer said:

    isam said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Shagger says that the 2nd tiering system wasn't good enough. As Whitty advised him at the time. So now we have a 3rd tiering system. Which as it will be largely suspended for Christmas will itself not be good enough by January...

    Your use of ‘Shagger’ as a pejorative term baffles me. How many blokes would resent it?!
    Whatever. Why don't we skip the fancy names (Shagger, Captain Hindsight, etc etc) , if only to avoid baffling new readers? It makes us look cliquey (the reports that Cummings and associates had a funny name for everyone is a good example)..
    FPT Is 'Shagger' not universal, then? I've had friends in emails which have nothing to do with politics come out with such things as "Eat an icecream for Bozo" (admittedly in that case when being sarcastic about the flood fo summer visitors which Mr Johnson had released to my friend's West Country home).
    Shagger isn't a fancy name. Shagger is a badge of shame. As I said on the previous thread we're living in the 2020s not an episode of Men Behaving Badly. He cheats on every partner and leaves behind a string of abandoned children. It speaks masses about his lack of character with everything that means for the country he leads.
    I do appreciate that - just wondered if it was a PB-only name, especially as Mr Johnson's, erm, history is so widely known.
    'Shagger' is just uninventive. I'm still trying to make 'Sir Keira Knightly' a thing...
    That's just Pride and Prejudice.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    contrarian said:

    I've just had an email saying our office Xmas party is booked for a central London location in mid December.....

    So if the place has taken the booking.....???

    They probably need the cash, and will cancel closer to the time, then tell you you're not eligible for a refund but a credit note as per their terms and conditions.

    So our MD will have to disappoint all the people excitedly telling him to count them in....etc.....

    And the tories reckon stuff like this won;t annoy voters and they won;t remember it....?

    jeez.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,809
    DavidL said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1330862292410511362

    Isn't New Year bigger in Scotland than Xmas?

    Much bigger
    I would actually say not. Depends on your age. 18-25 it probably is. Before and after that I would say not.
    Quite. The attitude of it being bigger is probably a hangover from the days when Christmas was a normal working day, the main difference being that the bairns got up earlier than you before you put on your tackety buits, took up the piece box, and went out the door.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,356
    stodge said:

    It also seems there may be a way back to the racecourse in the not too distant.

    Wincanton on the 3rd may be able to have spectators though perhaps only 2000 and it'll be interesting to see which areas will start in Tier 1 (Shetland, Orkney) and have racecourses.

    I look forward to seeing where Surrey and East Sussex sit in the scheme of things - a pre-Christmas afternoon at Leafy beckons - as long as Barry Dennis isn't throwing Christmas puds at you.

    I have booked my accommodation for Cheltenham and await with interest what might happen by then.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    nico679 said:

    Biden’s new Secretary of State on French tv explaining how important US EU relations are. He speaks fluent French as he spent many years in Paris .

    In other news German press are reporting Nissan will close its UK factory , oh well at least the Sunderland folk can wave their new blue passports and sing Rule Brittania on their way to the job centre! Don’t expect any sympathy from Remainers , you wanted a good hard Brexit , enjoy it !

    New Nissan Qashqai to be built at Sunderland plant - 13th Nov 2020
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-54931105

    Changes their mind in a week?
    Strongly suggests the German story is rubbish but it is long past time that this deal was put to bed.

    I do wonder if things might have gone better if Lord Frost had been there from the beginning rather than that lazy plonker David Davis, but I fear not. The EU are just not good at decisions.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,307
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IvoGraham/status/1330849359076995073

    Can't believe TSE missed this

    Oh that is brilliant.
    Funny. But not accurate: another Oxford rule is that the comma is used consistently throughout a text.
    Such attention to detail on the punctuation, then the typo transporting one of the vaccines to Italy. Tsk.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    Imagine choosing not to repay the national debt....

    https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1330812949498388480
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,003
    If you are planning to bet on this 2 tweets that may help you decide

    https://twitter.com/Despise45/status/1330912341907677187

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1330910056972394497

    They may contradict each other and even things out but I suspect it makes GOP losing both seats slightly more likely as only Democrats will take the effort to check their registration.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IvoGraham/status/1330849359076995073

    Can't believe TSE missed this

    Oh that is brilliant.
    I didn’t realise Ferrari had produced a vaccine.
    It's Heineken I'm looking forward to.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,507
    Well....

    https://twitter.com/FT/status/1330915887633854465
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,307
    Gallowgate said:

    From a practical, personal, perspective, there's no real difference between the new Tier 2 and Tier 3. It literally does not matter.

    It does if you are running a restaurant. Shocking that you are so carefree with other people's livelihoods
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,845
    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    contrarian said:

    These proposals, and the way they are being phrased, are very, very bad for the conservatives.

    Next May? I dread to think. I really do.

    No, it really isn't that bad. These vaccines will be rolling out, and into human arms, probably before Xmas. The vulnerable, key workers and possible super spreaders will get the first. Millions will be pumped through Jan, Feb.

    You will start to see a fall in R and infections, hospitalisations, deaths, etc, really quite quickly, as the virus is cornered. This means lots of regions will see an easement in the restrictions after Xmas. Those in Tier 3 (no pubs) should quite swiftly descend to Tier 2. And so on.

    It's gonna be a tough winter but it will get noticeably better as the evenings brighten.
    Exactly. And it's nearly Dec now. 2021 before you know it, then a few short weeks and you've got March on the horizon. And once March is here it's more or less Easter, Easter being the gateway to early summer, then summer proper and close to 100% normality for all those who want normality back. This is over.
    Just in time for them to panic about about novel bunyavirus.

    That is my problem with all this, that there will now be a massive over reaction to each new virus just in case its another covid. All western governments are going to I suspect take premature precautions just in case
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,307
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Imagine choosing not to repay the national debt....

    https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1330812949498388480

    That's almost exactly the extra tax Thompson of this parish was prepared to pay so that Biden could be president?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    IanB2 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    From a practical, personal, perspective, there's no real difference between the new Tier 2 and Tier 3. It literally does not matter.

    It does if you are running a restaurant. Shocking that you are so carefree with other people's livelihoods
    That's why I said it was from a personal perspective...
This discussion has been closed.