politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Final Survation poll on Newark

A female candidate might have won this for UKIP.

If the Tories hold, the story becomes Govt hold, opposition slide to third. Worst case for UKIP, they will not be the story.

ToryJim said:

Has Farage been drinking?

Well I have

stjohn said:

This is probably common knowledge to PBers - but news to me.

I have just gone to Wikipedia to find out the turnout for the Newark constituency vote at the last GE 2010. (51,228, 71.4%).

I did not know that Newark's elected MP in 1832 was the "TORY CANDIDATE", William Ewart Gladstone!

Shows how much I know.

Part of the great rivalry between Disraeli and Gladstone was that they started off in the same party.

Gladstone split off with the Peelites who then were part of the formation of the Liberal party.

Every time I hear Farage say "People's Army" I hear the conference speech of Blair when he declared Labour "the political wing of the British People".

James Landale ‏@BBCJLandale 3m

Sources at Newark count tell me the Lib Dems could come 6th behind an independent hospital campaigner and the Green candidate

South Cambs is far too liberal and middle-class to elect a UKIP MP. Big connections to Cambridge University in the seat.

What is cut-off point re Lansley?

You can keep a seat open for 6 months. Parliament will be dissolved early April so 6 months before that is early October.

Could Lansley be appointed Euro Commissioner but remain an MP just long enough to get to cut-off point so no by-election.

IMO most of the seats on the east coast between Hull and Thanet could have provided UKIP with a parliamentary win in a by-election.

MikeL said:

What is cut-off point re Lansley?

You can keep a seat open for 6 months. Parliament will be dissolved early April so 6 months before that is early October.

Could Lansley be appointed Euro Commissioner but remain an MP just long enough to get to cut-off point so no by-election.

Cameron will not play for a rain delay. He will take the risk.

"LouiseMensch Looks like we asked #LibDems in Newark to lend us their votes and many did so. Thank you, @UKIP sunning themselves in Malta #hypocrites"

oxfordsimon said:

ToryJim said:

Every time I hear Farage say "People's Army" I hear the conference speech of Blair when he declared Labour "the political wing of the British People".

I hear 'People's Army' and I find it very chilling. Any association between a political movement and a military operation is something that I find very worrying. I know we talk of battleground seats and the like - but the idea of an Army of UKIP campaigners is not a pleasant one. Purple and Yellow Shirts... no thank you.

Oh it's exceptionally chilling.

South Cambs will be a safe Tory hold.It's not conducive to Ukip according to election data's maps.O'Flynn said he was looking for a parliamentary seat to challenge and he is already elected an MEP.He could look to stand but this is true blue territory.

volcanopete said:

South Cambs will be a safe Tory hold.It's not conducive to Ukip according to election data's maps.O'Flynn said he was looking for a parliamentary seat to challenge and he is already elected an MEP.He could look to stand but this is true blue territory.

I can't see the 20k LD vote going to UKIP. It will be split between the kippers and tactical support for the Tories.

UKIP is desperately seeking to garner the protest vote from both the right and the left in the hope of breaking into mainstream UK politics. These continued Westminster by-election failures in the current political climate should be a real cause for concern for them, and it probable does indicate that they will fail to impress come the next GE. Its worth noting that the SNP, SDP, Libdems have all managed some quite incredible by-election wins in the past, and in similar political circumstances, and its also something that even Respect managed to achieve in the current Parliament.

And who on earth was in charge of the Labour campaign in Newark, anyone?! Usually we are told which MP is running the show, and there is some visible presence in the media as a result. But from where I am sitting there didn't seem to be anyone running this campaign for the Labour party, and the poor Labour candidate appeared a lonely figure left out on a limb by his Leader, his party Chairman and the whole Labour party! With less than a year before the GE campaign kicks off, that is worse than complacency, its an absolute disgrace for an Opposition party that thinks its got any chance of winning that election. We kept getting told that the Labour on ground operation is far superior to that of the Conservatives as if its going to be an advantage come the next GE. Well we have seen very little evidence of this 'strategically' advantageous Labour operation on the ground in Newark. No wonder Labour don't like Grant Shapps!

Earlier today I saw the point raised that UKIP not only attract protest voters, but they also repel other voters enough to motivate them to get out and tactically vote against them. Sound familiar, it should do, Labour and the Libdems dined out on this kind of tactical voting at the expense of the Tories for years. And just look at the huge difference in the views of male and female voters in that last Survation Newark poll, something that is able demonstrated on a daily basis on this site. That is why UKIP keeps coming a close second, but still consistently fails to cross the line first. Its worth pointing out that as volume of UKIP posters has increased on the site, the regular presence of female posters has declined. I have been around lurking and then posting on this site since before the 2005 GE, this is dramatic drop off on female posters after such a steady rise in their presence here, and it should be food for thought as we girls do follow politics... And we tend to turn out and vote too!

corporeal said:

Eh, I'd say if UKIP make it all the way through to the GE winning none of the by-elections they should be at the least disappointed.

More or less all the emerging parties have won seats from way behind at by-elections as they came up. So the track record's there.

It's not necessarily the only way of course, but it doesn't bode well for their seat winning prospects at the GE.

Jon Ashworth didn't like the slapping he got off of Curtice

Let's hope Mr Eagles

ToryJim said:

Let's hope Mr Eagles

I have to be up at 7.30am

Just get to bed Eagles

TheScreamingEagles said:

The highpoint of this evening has been Professor John Curtice giving Jon Ashworth a good kicking.

The look on his face was a picture.

It's possible voters in Newark have voted pretty much the same as they did in the Euro elections.

Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.

I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.

The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ToryJim said:

Just get to bed Eagles

I have to write the results thread!

Hope your getting rewarded for your dedication

It's my contribution to the Big Society

MikeL said:

Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.

I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.

The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.

Let's see after the summer where the polls lie and then after the conferences etc

MikeL said:

Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.

I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.

The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.

Maybe the polls were distorted by the Euro elections and they've returned to the previous position.

AndyJS said:

MikeL said:

Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.

I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.

The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.

Maybe the polls were distorted by the Euro elections and they've returned to the previous position.

Yes, but Lab only won the Locals by 1% to 2% (National Equivalent share).

So it was reasonable to think that Lab did really lead by only 1% to 2% nationally - as Locals had much lower UKIP score than Euros.

But we are now suddenly back to 5%.

Con has to cling to possibility that in the actual ballot box Lab doesn't match polls - some evidence for this - particularly in the Euros.

In the by-election in Newark in 1840, the Liberal candidate was 9 votes away from coming last.
The Lib Dems might do even better than that this time.

RodCrosby said:

MikeL said:

Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.

I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.

The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.

If the polls move like they did last time, the Tories will finish four points ahead...

Yes Rod - that's credible - but I think to stay in Govt for certain (ie 312 seats required as unionists will support them in that situation) they need 5%.

Kellner said Con could get a majority with a 5% lead - my own view is 6% means no net loss to Lab and they might get 15 gains from LD = 322 seats.

So I think approx 5% lead for 312.

ManofKent Indeed, I have an interest as I was brought up in Tunbridge Wells, schooled in Tonbridge

Chris Bryant reckons his candidate is the best and that the winner would agree. Yeah right.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reverend Underpants really is a [moderated]

I think you can insert any expletive there of your choice,

Err, not any more. Diane James has been appalling bad on This Week tonight, and I say that as someone who initially suggested she would have been a far better candidate than Helmer in Newark.

AveryLP said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Who on earth thinks UKIP will get 30-60 seats at the general election?

No one

Diane James makes some strange comments.. she is good but maybe over rated

She is undoubtedly good as a party representative on TV. She handles aggressive questioning well.

But there is latent anger in her eyes.

Not a woman to cross I would guess.

After 30 yrs of support and active involvement, I would quit Tory party that did a pact with UKIP.

ToryJim said:

MikeL said:

Curtice explaining that Con / UKIP pact is totally impractical.

It is. The number of people I know who would quit a Tory party that did a pact with UKIP.

Farage in danger of becoming yet again another Jonny come lately that doesn't turn up on the day....

RodCrosby said:

Farage: shortlist of two three seats I will fight, to be announced before the summer recess...

Highlight of This Week coverage.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The highpoint of this evening has been Professor John Curtice giving Jon Ashworth a good kicking.

MikeL, big fan of your posts, but grow a pair over the current polls.

MikeL said:

Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.

I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.

The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.

Chris Bryant really is being an idiot. I'd call him a muppet but that would be an insult to a brand of puppets

Poor from Hancock - it would be very easy to just have one or two specific examples of what Con would do if not in coalition.

OK, it might be hypothetical but never mind - just have a decent answer to a simple question.

James Landale (per Party sources):

Con - high 30s, maybe 40
UKIP - 32
Lab - 18
Baggaley - 4th
Green / LD - close for 5th

Diane James agrees with Andrew Neil's proposition that UKIP need a significant block of MPs to get what they want - totally deluded as the chances of even 20 UKIP MPs is absolutely miniscule.

It feels like Hancock, Ashworth and James are trying to drive viewers insane at the moment.

All the by-election polls underestimated UKIP and overestimated Labour. Although 3 isn't many.

@BlindGazza: So fewer than 543 votes for libs and that would be the party's worst by-election ever #newarkbyelection

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Biggest loser of the night Bryant, then d dimple by. Biggest winner john curtice, then brillo.

James blind faith in nigel saying that ed will also offer a referendum is touching

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nice eye roll by Hancock at Diane James

Yes.

It would be interesting to hear from a focus group who won the exchange.

I fear it wouldn't be Hancock, although my sympathies are with him.

Twitter
Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 1m
RT @WikiGuido: .@matthancockmp speaking for every surviving #bbctw viewer with that eye roll at Diane James there.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nice eye roll by Hancock at Diane James

Can u blame him?

Hancock has the face and demeanour of a Bassett hound.

@BBCJLandale: Am told 7,000 Tory majority in Newark. Con 17000, UKIP 10,000, Lab 6,000 #newarkbyelection

Fecking get on with it!