UKIP have been a bit unlucky in that there are probably about 50 seats they could have won in a by-election but none of them have become vacant during the parliament.
An insurgent party should be able to win just about anywhere in a by-election.
UKIP have had two near misses on around 30% of the vote.
I doubt Ukip will win 60 seats next year but people saying it's a million to one shot are wrong. Trouble for Ukip is they're back in the low teens after the Euros. They haven't really moved forward in the last 12 months. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if the economy hadn't picked up.
It really is incredibly unlikely UKIP will sniff anything like that many.
UKIP have been a bit unlucky in that there are probably about 50 seats they could have won in a by-election but none of them have become vacant during the parliament.
If you think there's only 50 seats they could've won they'd have had to be pretty lucky for one to become vacant surely.
Every time I hear Farage say "People's Army" I hear the conference speech of Blair when he declared Labour "the political wing of the British People".
I hear 'People's Army' and I find it very chilling. Any association between a political movement and a military operation is something that I find very worrying. I know we talk of battleground seats and the like - but the idea of an Army of UKIP campaigners is not a pleasant one. Purple and Yellow Shirts... no thank you.
Every time I hear Farage say "People's Army" I hear the conference speech of Blair when he declared Labour "the political wing of the British People".
I hear 'People's Army' and I find it very chilling. Any association between a political movement and a military operation is something that I find very worrying. I know we talk of battleground seats and the like - but the idea of an Army of UKIP campaigners is not a pleasant one. Purple and Yellow Shirts... no thank you.
You can keep a seat open for 6 months. Parliament will be dissolved early April so 6 months before that is early October.
Could Lansley be appointed Euro Commissioner but remain an MP just long enough to get to cut-off point so no by-election.
Cameron will not play for a rain delay. He will take the risk.
I don't think he can.
Newark was the 44th safest and it's ended up pretty close.
South Cambs may have links to the University but even so it is in East Anglia which is a strong UKIP area - probably more strong than Newark - it's not worth chancing it.
South Cambs will be a safe Tory hold.It's not conducive to Ukip according to election data's maps.O'Flynn said he was looking for a parliamentary seat to challenge and he is already elected an MEP.He could look to stand but this is true blue territory.
South Cambs will be a safe Tory hold.It's not conducive to Ukip according to election data's maps.O'Flynn said he was looking for a parliamentary seat to challenge and he is already elected an MEP.He could look to stand but this is true blue territory.
I can't see the 20k LD vote going to UKIP. It will be split between the kippers and tactical support for the Tories.
IMO most of the seats on the east coast between Hull and Thanet could have provided UKIP with a parliamentary win in a by-election.
Looking at tonight's result and the Euro election results Dover and Folkestone & Hythe would both be vulnerable too. UKIP won both in the Euros by 15 points or more. In fact you could add most of Kent to that given that Newark Euros (granted with different borders) was only around a 1% victory for UKIP whereas virtually the whole of Kent (bar Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and Tunbridge Wells) showed Euro leads for UKIP of between 8% and 24%.
UKIP is desperately seeking to garner the protest vote from both the right and the left in the hope of breaking into mainstream UK politics. These continued Westminster by-election failures in the current political climate should be a real cause for concern for them, and it probable does indicate that they will fail to impress come the next GE. Its worth noting that the SNP, SDP, Libdems have all managed some quite incredible by-election wins in the past, and in similar political circumstances, and its also something that even Respect managed to achieve in the current Parliament.
And who on earth was in charge of the Labour campaign in Newark, anyone?! Usually we are told which MP is running the show, and there is some visible presence in the media as a result. But from where I am sitting there didn't seem to be anyone running this campaign for the Labour party, and the poor Labour candidate appeared a lonely figure left out on a limb by his Leader, his party Chairman and the whole Labour party! With less than a year before the GE campaign kicks off, that is worse than complacency, its an absolute disgrace for an Opposition party that thinks its got any chance of winning that election. We kept getting told that the Labour on ground operation is far superior to that of the Conservatives as if its going to be an advantage come the next GE. Well we have seen very little evidence of this 'strategically' advantageous Labour operation on the ground in Newark. No wonder Labour don't like Grant Shapps!
Earlier today I saw the point raised that UKIP not only attract protest voters, but they also repel other voters enough to motivate them to get out and tactically vote against them. Sound familiar, it should do, Labour and the Libdems dined out on this kind of tactical voting at the expense of the Tories for years. And just look at the huge difference in the views of male and female voters in that last Survation Newark poll, something that is able demonstrated on a daily basis on this site. That is why UKIP keeps coming a close second, but still consistently fails to cross the line first. Its worth pointing out that as volume of UKIP posters has increased on the site, the regular presence of female posters has declined. I have been around lurking and then posting on this site since before the 2005 GE, this is dramatic drop off on female posters after such a steady rise in their presence here, and it should be food for thought as we girls do follow politics... And we tend to turn out and vote too!
Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.
I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.
The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.
Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.
I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.
The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.
Let's see after the summer where the polls lie and then after the conferences etc
Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.
I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.
The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.
Maybe the polls were distorted by the Euro elections and they've returned to the previous position.
Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.
I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.
The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.
If the polls move like they did last time, the Tories will finish four points ahead...
Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.
I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.
The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.
Maybe the polls were distorted by the Euro elections and they've returned to the previous position.
Yes, but Lab only won the Locals by 1% to 2% (National Equivalent share).
So it was reasonable to think that Lab did really lead by only 1% to 2% nationally - as Locals had much lower UKIP score than Euros.
But we are now suddenly back to 5%.
Con has to cling to possibility that in the actual ballot box Lab doesn't match polls - some evidence for this - particularly in the Euros.
Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.
I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.
The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.
Maybe the polls were distorted by the Euro elections and they've returned to the previous position.
Yes, but Lab only won the Locals by 1% to 2% (National Equivalent share).
So it was reasonable to think that Lab did really lead by only 1% to 2% nationally - as Locals had much lower UKIP score than Euros.
But we are now suddenly back to 5%.
Polls move about all over the show. Let's see where we are at the turn of the year.
Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.
I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.
The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.
If the polls move like they did last time, the Tories will finish four points ahead...
Yes Rod - that's credible - but I think to stay in Govt for certain (ie 312 seats required as unionists will support them in that situation) they need 5%.
Kellner said Con could get a majority with a 5% lead - my own view is 6% means no net loss to Lab and they might get 15 gains from LD = 322 seats.
Err, not any more. Diane James has been appalling bad on This Week tonight, and I say that as someone who initially suggested she would have been a far better candidate than Helmer in Newark.
Curtice analysis very sound as always - but he makes no mention of the swing back to Lab in the national polls over the last 2 weeks.
I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.
The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.
Poor from Hancock - it would be very easy to just have one or two specific examples of what Con would do if not in coalition.
OK, it might be hypothetical but never mind - just have a decent answer to a simple question.
The honest answer is that levels of EU immigration are linked to relative economic growth.
With continental Europe nearing stagflation and their employment levels shrinking, it is not surprising that economic migrants flock to the UK where both employment and the economy are growing above trend.
Put simply, higher immigration from the EU is the price we pay for (and the driver of) economic success.
Diane James agrees with Andrew Neil's proposition that UKIP need a significant block of MPs to get what they want - totally deluded as the chances of even 20 UKIP MPs is absolutely miniscule.
Totally agree, not the nice face of the Labour party.
A couple of observations. Really surprised at how poor Diane James was on This Week now that she is a UKIP MEP. She has become the female face of UKIP, and what an unattractive face that became tonight when she didn't even make an effort to distance herself from Helmer's comments on various contentious issues!
And what on earth was the BBC thinking when they didn't even bother to put up a serious political journalist at the count on their This Week Newark by-election coverage?! Fair play to Andrew Neil when he finally lost patience and turned his forensic interview technique on BBC journalist that they did offer up, and because they simple didn't cut the mustard.
But for me, tonight's highlights from the This Week coverage remains the Jacob Rees Mogg interview, and of course the bust up between Professor Curtice and Labour Jon Ashworth. Both were priceless. Far more entertaining that anything that Dimbleby and Co would have offered up.
@BlindGazza: So fewer than 543 votes for libs and that would be the party's worst by-election ever #newarkbyelection
That is of course rubbish. The Lib Dems got 352 in South Shields, 451 in Rotherham, 474 in Glasgow North East (2009), and 411 in Glasgow Central (1990).
Comments
UKIP have had two near misses on around 30% of the vote.
Not good enough...
In my view if Newark majority is only 2,500 then Cameron simply cannot risk a by-election in South Cambs.
Gladstone split off with the Peelites who then were part of the formation of the Liberal party.
Sources at Newark count tell me the Lib Dems could come 6th behind an independent hospital campaigner and the Green candidate
Say goodbye to Cornwall, London and most of Scotland.
You can keep a seat open for 6 months. Parliament will be dissolved early April so 6 months before that is early October.
Could Lansley be appointed Euro Commissioner but remain an MP just long enough to get to cut-off point so no by-election.
Newark was the 44th safest and it's ended up pretty close.
South Cambs may have links to the University but even so it is in East Anglia which is a strong UKIP area - probably more strong than Newark - it's not worth chancing it.
I think he should just pick Callanan.
Accurately quoting the betting markets.
And who on earth was in charge of the Labour campaign in Newark, anyone?! Usually we are told which MP is running the show, and there is some visible presence in the media as a result. But from where I am sitting there didn't seem to be anyone running this campaign for the Labour party, and the poor Labour candidate appeared a lonely figure left out on a limb by his Leader, his party Chairman and the whole Labour party! With less than a year before the GE campaign kicks off, that is worse than complacency, its an absolute disgrace for an Opposition party that thinks its got any chance of winning that election. We kept getting told that the Labour on ground operation is far superior to that of the Conservatives as if its going to be an advantage come the next GE. Well we have seen very little evidence of this 'strategically' advantageous Labour operation on the ground in Newark. No wonder Labour don't like Grant Shapps!
Earlier today I saw the point raised that UKIP not only attract protest voters, but they also repel other voters enough to motivate them to get out and tactically vote against them. Sound familiar, it should do, Labour and the Libdems dined out on this kind of tactical voting at the expense of the Tories for years. And just look at the huge difference in the views of male and female voters in that last Survation Newark poll, something that is able demonstrated on a daily basis on this site. That is why UKIP keeps coming a close second, but still consistently fails to cross the line first. Its worth pointing out that as volume of UKIP posters has increased on the site, the regular presence of female posters has declined. I have been around lurking and then posting on this site since before the 2005 GE, this is dramatic drop off on female posters after such a steady rise in their presence here, and it should be food for thought as we girls do follow politics... And we tend to turn out and vote too! Eh, I'd say if UKIP make it all the way through to the GE winning none of the by-elections they should be at the least disappointed.
More or less all the emerging parties have won seats from way behind at by-elections as they came up. So the track record's there.
It's not necessarily the only way of course, but it doesn't bode well for their seat winning prospects at the GE.
I am a Con supporter but I have to admit that the scale of the swing back to Lab over the last 2 weeks is very worrying.
The Euros, Locals and Newark results all point to Con having a good chance at the GE. But being approx 5% behind Lab again in the national polls in my view looks like too big a hurdle to overcome.
Farage F*cked
See! Easy!
So it was reasonable to think that Lab did really lead by only 1% to 2% nationally - as Locals had much lower UKIP score than Euros.
But we are now suddenly back to 5%.
Con has to cling to possibility that in the actual ballot box Lab doesn't match polls - some evidence for this - particularly in the Euros.
The Lib Dems might do even better than that this time.
Kellner said Con could get a majority with a 5% lead - my own view is 6% means no net loss to Lab and they might get 15 gains from LD = 322 seats.
So I think approx 5% lead for 312.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 2m
Monster Raving Loony Party say they're in financial crisis. Need new sponsor after bookies William Hill dropped them following Eastleigh
OK, it might be hypothetical but never mind - just have a decent answer to a simple question.
With continental Europe nearing stagflation and their employment levels shrinking, it is not surprising that economic migrants flock to the UK where both employment and the economy are growing above trend.
Put simply, higher immigration from the EU is the price we pay for (and the driver of) economic success.
Con - high 30s, maybe 40
UKIP - 32
Lab - 18
Baggaley - 4th
Green / LD - close for 5th
And an utter disaster for Miliband.
It is blindingly obvious that her actions will reduce the chances of a referendum - which is what she claims she wants.
A couple of observations.
Really surprised at how poor Diane James was on This Week now that she is a UKIP MEP. She has become the female face of UKIP, and what an unattractive face that became tonight when she didn't even make an effort to distance herself from Helmer's comments on various contentious issues!
And what on earth was the BBC thinking when they didn't even bother to put up a serious political journalist at the count on their This Week Newark by-election coverage?! Fair play to Andrew Neil when he finally lost patience and turned his forensic interview technique on BBC journalist that they did offer up, and because they simple didn't cut the mustard.
But for me, tonight's highlights from the This Week coverage remains the Jacob Rees Mogg interview, and of course the bust up between Professor Curtice and Labour Jon Ashworth. Both were priceless. Far more entertaining that anything that Dimbleby and Co would have offered up.
It would be interesting to hear from a focus group who won the exchange.
I fear it wouldn't be Hancock, although my sympathies are with him.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 1m
RT @WikiGuido: .@matthancockmp speaking for every surviving #bbctw viewer with that eye roll at Diane James there.
Am told 7,000 Tory majority in Newark. Con 17000, UKIP 10,000, Lab 6,000 #newarkbyelection