I have no expectation that they will, or even should, but I really would laugh myself sick if UKIP has won in Newark. The screams of outraged entitlement would be wonderful to hear. It would probably be the biggest, and most deserved, shock to the ruling classes since 1381.
You can't start a Peasants' Revolt in Hurstpierpoint, Mr. Llama.
West Sussex is a place to play village cricket and drink warm beer.
I can start a Peasants Revolt if I like, thank you very much. Might not get too far, because well, to be honest not too many peasants around these days and Sussex has never been a place for all that showy nonsense - leave that to the people from Essex and Kent is the normal view.
However, whilst we do rather enjoy our cricket, I take exception to the fact that our beer is warm. The correct temperature for proper beer is a around 55 degrees. At the bar of the New Inn is a device which shows the temperature in the cellar - never moves from 54 degrees. Faulty device? Nope, I put a lit cigarette under the gizmo in the cellar one day that made it move. Its just that in 1400, when the New Inn was built, they knew about keeping beer at the right temperature and how to do it without electricity.
I am always getting caught out on the correct temperature to store and serve alcoholic drinks, Mr. Llama. The Nabavi is a particular stickler. It must be a Sussex thing.
Surprising too as I am (2 generations off though) a scion of a south coast brewing family, long since absorbed into Whitbreads who then exited brewing altogether. So it should run in my blood. I must be a black sheep.
A South Coast brewing family absorbed into Whitbreads, but clearly not from Sussex? Once upon a time I probably could have narrowed that down off the top of my head, but age is the great destroyer of memory and reasoning. So come on, old chap, don't be shy confess to your history, nobody will hold it against you.
I am still struggling to figure out what was Labour's strategy in Newark. Was it really soft-pedalling in the hope that UKIP would hoover up enough Labour voters to embarrass the Tories? So it was really hoping that enough teachers, trade unionists etc etc etc would vote for UKIP? Really?
The latest over analysis seems to be saying that Labour soft pedalled to allow the Conservatives to win!
Only in their minds eyes. How can they be the 'one nation' party when the areas where parties like the Tories are weak in are the most sparsely populated (eg Scotland & the North East) and Labour are falling to Scottish Tory levels in the large parts of the South East, South West and Eastern regions.
It's all a question of how you look at it. Scotland and Wales have small populations, but Labour are dominant in Westminster terms whereas the Tories are nowhere, in Scotland at least. That leaves England, which Labour have won before and still get hundreds of seats from. It is certainly true Labour have fallen to woeful levels in some parts of England, but 'One Nation' is easier to claim with a straight face when you have significant MPs from each nation, even if you are doing badly in specific parts of them, than it is for the opposition to claim it when they barely even place in whole nations.
Its not a credible argument when England makes up 84% of the population. Whether its 'easier' to claim or not is irrelevant it is risible.
I respectfully disagree. One could dominate England and thus the UK with zero presence in the others but hardly claim 'one nation' appeal unless the views of the others is to be regarded as irrelevant because they are so much smaller. Having a strong presence in all three in Britain shows not just support in a population sense, but in a nation sense, which was my understanding of the Labour point.
Labour's weakness in many parts of England should concern them, but it is simple fact that they have a wider distribution of representation across all three British nations than the other parties. I have no problem recognising that without being a Labour supporter, as it doesn't mean I think they should just ignore those large and populous areas of England - if they truly one to be 'one nation' they need to reocver in those areas too - just that they can afford it mroe.
Ah, yes, we concentrated on the real action in East Lanarkshire :-).
Heading for bed, but it's worth noting that the Tory postal vote machine (which I'd assume to be the cause of the high PV turnout) is in really good shape. Something for all of us to keep in mind.
I have no expectation that they will, or even should, but I really would laugh myself sick if UKIP has won in Newark. The screams of outraged entitlement would be wonderful to hear. It would probably be the biggest, and most deserved, shock to the ruling classes since 1381.
You can't start a Peasants' Revolt in Hurstpierpoint, Mr. Llama.
West Sussex is a place to play village cricket and drink warm beer.
I can start a Peasants Revolt if I like, thank you very much. Might not get too far, because well, to be honest not too many peasants around these days and Sussex has never been a place for all that showy nonsense - leave that to the people from Essex and Kent is the normal view.
However, whilst we do rather enjoy our cricket, I take exception to the fact that our beer is warm. The correct temperature for proper beer is a around 55 degrees. At the bar of the New Inn is a device which shows the temperature in the cellar - never moves from 54 degrees. Faulty device? Nope, I put a lit cigarette under the gizmo in the cellar one day that made it move. Its just that in 1400, when the New Inn was built, they knew about keeping beer at the right temperature and how to do it without electricity.
I am always getting caught out on the correct temperature to store and serve alcoholic drinks, Mr. Llama. The Nabavi is a particular stickler. It must be a Sussex thing.
Surprising too as I am (2 generations off though) a scion of a south coast brewing family, long since absorbed into Whitbreads who then exited brewing altogether. So it should run in my blood. I must be a black sheep.
A South Coast brewing family absorbed into Whitbreads, but clearly not from Sussex? Once upon a time I probably could have narrowed that down off the top of my head, but age is the great destroyer of memory and reasoning. So come on, old chap, don't be shy confess to your history, nobody will hold it against you.
A clue. A tale of two cities. Look east and west. Ignore your county's boundary to west.
The move to Whitbreads was not direct. There was a intermediary acquisition.
Ah, yes, we concentrated on the real action in East Lanarkshire :-).
Heading for bed, but it's worth noting that the Tory postal vote machine (which I'd assume to be the cause of the high PV turnout) is in really good shape. Something for all of us to keep in mind.
I respectfully disagree. One could dominate England and thus the UK with zero presence in the others but hardly claim 'one nation' appeal unless the views of the others is to be regarded as irrelevant because they are so much smaller. Having a strong presence in all three in Britain shows not just support in a population sense, but in a nation sense, which was my understanding of the Labour point.
Labour's weakness in many parts of England should concern them, but it is simple fact that they have a wider distribution of representation across all three British nations than the other parties. I have no problem recognising that without being a Labour supporter, as it doesn't mean I think they should just ignore those large and populous areas of England - if they truly one to be 'one nation' they need to reocver in those areas too - just that they can afford it mroe.
The problem with your and Miliband's argument is that you and he are attempting to put the importance of two regions Scotland and Wales at the same level as the 'Super Region' (the 9 regions ) of England. Now if Miliband could claim he is relatively strong in all 9 English regions as well as Scotland and Wales then he has a point but conflating Scotland and Wales with the 'Super Region' of England is a non starter
[It's all a question of how you look at it. Scotland and Wales have small populations, but Labour are dominant in Westminster terms whereas the Tories are nowhere, in Scotland at least. That leaves England, which Labour have won before and still get hundreds of seats from. It is certainly true Labour have fallen to woeful levels in some parts of England, but 'One Nation' is easier to claim with a straight face when you have significant MPs from each nation, even if you are doing badly in specific parts of them, than it is for the opposition to claim it when they barely even place in whole nations.
Its not a credible argument when England makes up 84% of the population. Whether its 'easier' to claim or not is irrelevant it is risible. I respectfully disagree. One could dominate England and thus the UK with zero presence in the others but hardly claim 'one nation' appeal unless the views of the others is to be regarded as irrelevant because they are so much smaller. Having a strong presence in all three in Britain shows not just support in a population sense, but in a nation sense, which was my understanding of the Labour point.
Labour's weakness in many parts of England should concern them, but it is simple fact that they have a wider distribution of representation across all three British nations than the other parties. I have no problem recognising that without being a Labour supporter, as it doesn't mean I think they should just ignore those large and populous areas of England - if they truly one to be 'one nation' they need to reocver in those areas too - just that they can afford it mroe.
The problem with your and Miliband's argument is that you ann]d he are attempting to put the importance of two regions Scotland and Wales at the same level as the 'Super Region' (the 9 regions ) of England. Now if Miliband could claim he is relatively strong in all 9 English regions as well as Scotland and Wales then he has a point but conflating Scotland and Wales with the 'Super Region' of England is a non starter]
My understanding is that betfair prices work better at this time of night.
Someone made that claim on here the other day, and I still don't see how its is justified. Certainly down here its the folk in the rural areas that are most pissed off with the Cameron Clique and most attracted to UKIP. The idea that people in the Countryside will vote conservative seems to me to be out-dated.
Someone made that claim on here the other day, and I still don't see how its is justified. Certainly down here its the folk in the rural areas that are most pissed off with the Cameron Clique and most attracted to UKIP. The idea that people in the Countryside will vote conservative seems to me to be out-dated.
Yes, versus Labour, perhaps. But against a rightist alternative?
Someone made that claim on here the other day, and I still don't see how its is justified. Certainly down here its the folk in the rural areas that are most pissed off with the Cameron Clique and most attracted to UKIP. The idea that people in the Countryside will vote conservative seems to me to be out-dated.
I suppose it would depend how posh the rural parts of the seat are. Well-off country areas will have a lot of UKIP support, but still favour the Tories.
I believe that this gain means that SNP no longer have the largest number of councillors in Scotland , Labour have overtaken them because of by election gains and defections since 2012
I believe that this gain means that SNP no longer have the largest number of councillors in Scotland , Labour have overtaken them because of by election gains and defections since 2012
But, but, but, the Nats tell us only the SNP speak for Scotland, you must be wrong.
I was about to post that those who have backed UKIP at 99.0 on Betfair have placed a great bet because they can lay back at around 20.0 and make a very tidy quick profit.
But the opportunity has gone. Betfair has pronounced. The Tories have won this. No Back Price is available on the Tories and the Lay price is the minimum possible, 1.01. The UKIP Back and Lay prices are 100 and 300 respectively.
The only doubt about the result is that the amounts available to bet are pretty small.
Mr corporeal hope you've had that looked at by a health professional
I have, hence my absence from here tonight, (and my inability to bring you up short for preferring Disraeli to Gladstone, and restrain TSE from his betting excesses).
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#BritainElects @britainelects 53s
Labour GAIN Clydesdale South (South Lanarkshire) from the SNP.
FPT Poor old misunderstood Hitler
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/10875534/Mayor-of-Venice-arrested-on-lagoon-barrier-project-corruption-charges.html?utm_content=buffer843fb&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
PB GAINS CLYDESDALE BANK
Yeah!!!!!
Heading for bed, but it's worth noting that the Tory postal vote machine (which I'd assume to be the cause of the high PV turnout) is in really good shape. Something for all of us to keep in mind.
The move to Whitbreads was not direct. There was a intermediary acquisition.
Just backed UKIP to win Newark at 99/1
pic.twitter.com/K0O1mrz4oG
joncraigSKY @joncraig
Early indications from Newark count: Tories 37-38%, UKIP 33-34%, Labour 18%, LibDems as low as 2%. That's town votes, rural still to come
A.L. Murray (2010)
James Landale ✔ @BBCJLandale
Turnout at Newark currently estimated at about 53%
George Eaton @georgeeaton
Early indications from Newark suggest Lib Dems may have lost their deposit for ninth time this parliament.
"History is made as..."
Its not a credible argument when England makes up 84% of the population. Whether its 'easier' to claim or not is irrelevant it is risible.
I respectfully disagree. One could dominate England and thus the UK with zero presence in the others but hardly claim 'one nation' appeal unless the views of the others is to be regarded as irrelevant because they are so much smaller. Having a strong presence in all three in Britain shows not just support in a population sense, but in a nation sense, which was my understanding of the Labour point.
Labour's weakness in many parts of England should concern them, but it is simple fact that they have a wider distribution of representation across all three British nations than the other parties. I have no problem recognising that without being a Labour supporter, as it doesn't mean I think they should just ignore those large and populous areas of England - if they truly one to be 'one nation' they need to reocver in those areas too - just that they can afford it mroe.
The problem with your and Miliband's argument is that you ann]d he are attempting to put the importance of two regions Scotland and Wales at the same level as the 'Super Region' (the 9 regions ) of England. Now if Miliband could claim he is relatively strong in all 9 English regions as well as Scotland and Wales then he has a point but conflating Scotland and Wales with the 'Super Region' of England is a non starter]
My understanding is that betfair prices work better at this time of night.
2 hours in the boxes!!!!!!
Someone made that claim on here the other day, and I still don't see how its is justified. Certainly down here its the folk in the rural areas that are most pissed off with the Cameron Clique and most attracted to UKIP. The idea that people in the Countryside will vote conservative seems to me to be out-dated.
James Landale ✔ @BBCJLandale
One party's estimate of votes counted so far in Newark put Con on 38/ UKIP 34/ Lab 18/ Lib Dem 2.
Now into 100...
PBers must hope UKIP don't win.
If they do, I'll never ever ever shut up about by 99/1 winner
COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC
Not for any shocking reasons, I've just torn a tendon and broken my finger.
We're all about the 50/1s here TSE
Or, if the LibDems don't have a Tardis, it won't.
On the twitter feed next to the video of the count.
PS sorry to hear about your hand - get well soon!
"A higher turnout would help Ukip as polls have shown their voters are the most likely to traipse down to the polling station."
Isn't it the other way round? A lower turnout helps UKIP?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/06/live-newark-by-election/
Sky News @SkyNews 18s
Four Shot On University Campus In Seattle http://news.sky.com/story/1276584/four-shot-on-university-campus-in-seattle …
But the opportunity has gone. Betfair has pronounced. The Tories have won this. No Back Price is available on the Tories and the Lay price is the minimum possible, 1.01. The UKIP Back and Lay prices are 100 and 300 respectively.
The only doubt about the result is that the amounts available to bet are pretty small.
Trust me, as a Lib Dem and a Welsh rugby fan, at some point good performances and moral victories wear thin and you yearn for some actual wins. *shrugs*
UKIP and the Tories didn't exactly half-arse it in Eastleigh I have, hence my absence from here tonight, (and my inability to bring you up short for preferring Disraeli to Gladstone, and restrain TSE from his betting excesses).
Xlibris1 @Xlibris1 3m
A Labour source says: ‘Looking like clear Tory win with Ukip 2nd and us third ! And Bus Pass Elvis 4th ? Clegg 5th ?
Richard Willis @CllrRWillis 5m
Clydesdale South (South Lanarkshire) Result: LAB: 42.0% (+8.8) GAIN SNP: 32.9% (-14.0) CONS: 18.5% (+4.5) UKIP:6.6% (+6.6)
If they have then goodness knows what happens?
So someone is sure this is over.
More from the Twitter feed at the count.
"The four main parties"
The times they are a changin'
http://www.newark-sherwooddc.public-i.tv/core/portal/newarkbyelection
Also saying ridiculous that anyone says it would be a failure if UKIP didnt win