Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Final Survation poll on Newark

1356

Comments

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Kate Williams reminds me of a young version of Miss Lemon from Poirot.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    1 new Tweet

    #BritainElects ‏@britainelects 53s

    Labour GAIN Clydesdale South (South Lanarkshire) from the SNP.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ToryJim said:

    Well I've just taken a tenner at 99/1 at UKIP winning

    That's worth throwing your tenner away on.
    I threw a tenner at it too

    FPT Poor old misunderstood Hitler ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I love these counts: half an hour ago we were being told the Tories were miles ahead, now UKIP are doing much better apparently.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [Labour GAIN Clydesdale South (South Lanarkshire) from the SNP.]

    PB GAINS CLYDESDALE BANK

    Yeah!!!!!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    I have no expectation that they will, or even should, but I really would laugh myself sick if UKIP has won in Newark. The screams of outraged entitlement would be wonderful to hear. It would probably be the biggest, and most deserved, shock to the ruling classes since 1381.

    You can't start a Peasants' Revolt in Hurstpierpoint, Mr. Llama.

    West Sussex is a place to play village cricket and drink warm beer.

    I can start a Peasants Revolt if I like, thank you very much. Might not get too far, because well, to be honest not too many peasants around these days and Sussex has never been a place for all that showy nonsense - leave that to the people from Essex and Kent is the normal view.

    However, whilst we do rather enjoy our cricket, I take exception to the fact that our beer is warm. The correct temperature for proper beer is a around 55 degrees. At the bar of the New Inn is a device which shows the temperature in the cellar - never moves from 54 degrees. Faulty device? Nope, I put a lit cigarette under the gizmo in the cellar one day that made it move. Its just that in 1400, when the New Inn was built, they knew about keeping beer at the right temperature and how to do it without electricity.
    I am always getting caught out on the correct temperature to store and serve alcoholic drinks, Mr. Llama. The Nabavi is a particular stickler. It must be a Sussex thing.

    Surprising too as I am (2 generations off though) a scion of a south coast brewing family, long since absorbed into Whitbreads who then exited brewing altogether. So it should run in my blood. I must be a black sheep.

    A South Coast brewing family absorbed into Whitbreads, but clearly not from Sussex? Once upon a time I probably could have narrowed that down off the top of my head, but age is the great destroyer of memory and reasoning. So come on, old chap, don't be shy confess to your history, nobody will hold it against you.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UKIP in to 15.5 from 100
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    UKIP odds have come in massively on Betfair.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP have gone from 100/1 to 15/1 with Betfair in the last few seconds, LOL.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    I live I Wythenshawe and Sale East, the Tories didn't turn up here at the by election before this one and came third.

    hold zero seats on Manchester city council.

    Would it be fair to say that they've abandoned this part of country?

    Didn't the Labour councils make it against the law to vote Labour there? :)

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    I am still struggling to figure out what was Labour's strategy in Newark. Was it really soft-pedalling in the hope that UKIP would hoover up enough Labour voters to embarrass the Tories? So it was really hoping that enough teachers, trade unionists etc etc etc would vote for UKIP? Really?

    The latest over analysis seems to be saying that Labour soft pedalled to allow the Conservatives to win!
    Only in their minds eyes. How can they be the 'one nation' party when the areas where parties like the Tories are weak in are the most sparsely populated (eg Scotland & the North East) and Labour are falling to Scottish Tory levels in the large parts of the South East, South West and Eastern regions.
    It's all a question of how you look at it. Scotland and Wales have small populations, but Labour are dominant in Westminster terms whereas the Tories are nowhere, in Scotland at least. That leaves England, which Labour have won before and still get hundreds of seats from. It is certainly true Labour have fallen to woeful levels in some parts of England, but 'One Nation' is easier to claim with a straight face when you have significant MPs from each nation, even if you are doing badly in specific parts of them, than it is for the opposition to claim it when they barely even place in whole nations.
    Its not a credible argument when England makes up 84% of the population. Whether its 'easier' to claim or not is irrelevant it is risible.
    I respectfully disagree. One could dominate England and thus the UK with zero presence in the others but hardly claim 'one nation' appeal unless the views of the others is to be regarded as irrelevant because they are so much smaller. Having a strong presence in all three in Britain shows not just support in a population sense, but in a nation sense, which was my understanding of the Labour point.

    Labour's weakness in many parts of England should concern them, but it is simple fact that they have a wider distribution of representation across all three British nations than the other parties. I have no problem recognising that without being a Labour supporter, as it doesn't mean I think they should just ignore those large and populous areas of England - if they truly one to be 'one nation' they need to reocver in those areas too - just that they can afford it mroe.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Swiss_Bob said:

    UKIP odds have come in massively on Betfair.

    That's me an isam putting £20 quid on UKIP winning at 99/1
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    Ah, yes, we concentrated on the real action in East Lanarkshire :-).

    Heading for bed, but it's worth noting that the Tory postal vote machine (which I'd assume to be the cause of the high PV turnout) is in really good shape. Something for all of us to keep in mind.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    I have no expectation that they will, or even should, but I really would laugh myself sick if UKIP has won in Newark. The screams of outraged entitlement would be wonderful to hear. It would probably be the biggest, and most deserved, shock to the ruling classes since 1381.

    You can't start a Peasants' Revolt in Hurstpierpoint, Mr. Llama.

    West Sussex is a place to play village cricket and drink warm beer.

    I can start a Peasants Revolt if I like, thank you very much. Might not get too far, because well, to be honest not too many peasants around these days and Sussex has never been a place for all that showy nonsense - leave that to the people from Essex and Kent is the normal view.

    However, whilst we do rather enjoy our cricket, I take exception to the fact that our beer is warm. The correct temperature for proper beer is a around 55 degrees. At the bar of the New Inn is a device which shows the temperature in the cellar - never moves from 54 degrees. Faulty device? Nope, I put a lit cigarette under the gizmo in the cellar one day that made it move. Its just that in 1400, when the New Inn was built, they knew about keeping beer at the right temperature and how to do it without electricity.
    I am always getting caught out on the correct temperature to store and serve alcoholic drinks, Mr. Llama. The Nabavi is a particular stickler. It must be a Sussex thing.

    Surprising too as I am (2 generations off though) a scion of a south coast brewing family, long since absorbed into Whitbreads who then exited brewing altogether. So it should run in my blood. I must be a black sheep.

    A South Coast brewing family absorbed into Whitbreads, but clearly not from Sussex? Once upon a time I probably could have narrowed that down off the top of my head, but age is the great destroyer of memory and reasoning. So come on, old chap, don't be shy confess to your history, nobody will hold it against you.
    A clue. A tale of two cities. Look east and west. Ignore your county's boundary to west.

    The move to Whitbreads was not direct. There was a intermediary acquisition.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    The Screaming Eagles ‏@TSEofPB now

    Just backed UKIP to win Newark at 99/1

    pic.twitter.com/K0O1mrz4oG
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Another victory for Yes!

    Ah, yes, we concentrated on the real action in East Lanarkshire :-).

    Heading for bed, but it's worth noting that the Tory postal vote machine (which I'd assume to be the cause of the high PV turnout) is in really good shape. Something for all of us to keep in mind.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    joncraigSKY @joncraig

    Early indications from Newark count: Tories 37-38%, UKIP 33-34%, Labour 18%, LibDems as low as 2%. That's town votes, rural still to come

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Someone trying to lay the Tories at 1.01
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    RodCrosby said:

    Someone trying to lay the Tories at 1.01

    *Innocent Face*
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723


    joncraigSKY @joncraig

    Early indications from Newark count: Tories 37-38%, UKIP 33-34%, Labour 18%, LibDems as low as 2%. That's town votes, rural still to come

    Rural will surely be better for Con.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    ToryJim said:
    "In any other country a flooded city that stank of shit would be regarded as a disaster, not some sort of romantic jewel in the crown"

    A.L. Murray (2010)
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    James Landale ✔ @BBCJLandale

    Turnout at Newark currently estimated at about 53%

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Someone trying to lay the Tories at 1.01

    Now at 1.05
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con available to back at 1.05.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Well done to TSE getting on 99/1 just before it came down to 15/1.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MikeL said:


    joncraigSKY @joncraig

    Early indications from Newark count: Tories 37-38%, UKIP 33-34%, Labour 18%, LibDems as low as 2%. That's town votes, rural still to come

    Rural will surely be better for Con.
    Proberly - lib dems as low as 2% - Christ ;-)

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour heading for sub-15% if those figures are correct.
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    UKIP Back Lay now 15 20. Lucky I took some at 34!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Someone trying to back UKIP @ 20
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189


    joncraigSKY @joncraig

    Early indications from Newark count: Tories 37-38%, UKIP 33-34%, Labour 18%, LibDems as low as 2%. That's town votes, rural still to come

    The rural will push the Tories up further. Wish I was there. I called every one of the seats on my borough within 30s of the start of the count.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP needed to be well ahead in Newark to have a chance of winning overall.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    Someone trying to back UKIP @ 20

    matched
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    I'm now in the awkward position of seeing the Tories being humiliated and winning a grand.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    Early indications from Newark suggest Lib Dems may have lost their deposit for ninth time this parliament.

  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited June 2014

    I respectfully disagree. One could dominate England and thus the UK with zero presence in the others but hardly claim 'one nation' appeal unless the views of the others is to be regarded as irrelevant because they are so much smaller. Having a strong presence in all three in Britain shows not just support in a population sense, but in a nation sense, which was my understanding of the Labour point.

    Labour's weakness in many parts of England should concern them, but it is simple fact that they have a wider distribution of representation across all three British nations than the other parties. I have no problem recognising that without being a Labour supporter, as it doesn't mean I think they should just ignore those large and populous areas of England - if they truly one to be 'one nation' they need to reocver in those areas too - just that they can afford it mroe.
    The problem with your and Miliband's argument is that you and he are attempting to put the importance of two regions Scotland and Wales at the same level as the 'Super Region' (the 9 regions ) of England. Now if Miliband could claim he is relatively strong in all 9 English regions as well as Scotland and Wales then he has a point but conflating Scotland and Wales with the 'Super Region' of England is a non starter
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112


    George Eaton @georgeeaton

    Early indications from Newark suggest Lib Dems may have lost their deposit for ninth time this parliament.

    If correct, that would be nine out of 16 GB by-elections.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    I've drafted the results thread it begins with

    "History is made as..."
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [It's all a question of how you look at it. Scotland and Wales have small populations, but Labour are dominant in Westminster terms whereas the Tories are nowhere, in Scotland at least. That leaves England, which Labour have won before and still get hundreds of seats from. It is certainly true Labour have fallen to woeful levels in some parts of England, but 'One Nation' is easier to claim with a straight face when you have significant MPs from each nation, even if you are doing badly in specific parts of them, than it is for the opposition to claim it when they barely even place in whole nations.

    Its not a credible argument when England makes up 84% of the population. Whether its 'easier' to claim or not is irrelevant it is risible.
    I respectfully disagree. One could dominate England and thus the UK with zero presence in the others but hardly claim 'one nation' appeal unless the views of the others is to be regarded as irrelevant because they are so much smaller. Having a strong presence in all three in Britain shows not just support in a population sense, but in a nation sense, which was my understanding of the Labour point.

    Labour's weakness in many parts of England should concern them, but it is simple fact that they have a wider distribution of representation across all three British nations than the other parties. I have no problem recognising that without being a Labour supporter, as it doesn't mean I think they should just ignore those large and populous areas of England - if they truly one to be 'one nation' they need to reocver in those areas too - just that they can afford it mroe.


    The problem with your and Miliband's argument is that you ann]d he are attempting to put the importance of two regions Scotland and Wales at the same level as the 'Super Region' (the 9 regions ) of England. Now if Miliband could claim he is relatively strong in all 9 English regions as well as Scotland and Wales then he has a point but conflating Scotland and Wales with the 'Super Region' of England is a non starter]

    My understanding is that betfair prices work better at this time of night.

    2 hours in the boxes!!!!!!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "The rural will push the Tories up further"

    Someone made that claim on here the other day, and I still don't see how its is justified. Certainly down here its the folk in the rural areas that are most pissed off with the Cameron Clique and most attracted to UKIP. The idea that people in the Countryside will vote conservative seems to me to be out-dated.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Southwell is the LD hotspot in the Newark constituency and that hasn't been counted yet I think.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    I've drafted the results thread it begins with

    "History is made as..."

    That covers all bases
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    James Landale ✔ @BBCJLandale

    One party's estimate of votes counted so far in Newark put Con on 38/ UKIP 34/ Lab 18/ Lib Dem 2.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    "The rural will push the Tories up further"

    Someone made that claim on here the other day, and I still don't see how its is justified. Certainly down here its the folk in the rural areas that are most pissed off with the Cameron Clique and most attracted to UKIP. The idea that people in the Countryside will vote conservative seems to me to be out-dated.

    Yes, versus Labour, perhaps. But against a rightist alternative?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2014
    UKIP matched at 300!

    Now into 100...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP 100 again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    ToryJim said:

    I've drafted the results thread it begins with

    "History is made as..."

    That covers all bases
    It does, I've got two versions up, one if the Tories hold or one if UKIP win.

    PBers must hope UKIP don't win.

    If they do, I'll never ever ever shut up about by 99/1 winner
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Political Scrapbook ‏@PSbook 43s

    COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    I'm typing one handed.

    Not for any shocking reasons, I've just torn a tendon and broken my finger.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    I'm also on at 16/1 that Bus Pass Elvis outpoll the Lib Dems.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [If they do, I'll never ever ever shut up about by 99/1 winner]

    We're all about the 50/1s here TSE :):):)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Labour have gained Clydesdale South from SNP
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,528

    "The rural will push the Tories up further"

    Someone made that claim on here the other day, and I still don't see how its is justified. Certainly down here its the folk in the rural areas that are most pissed off with the Cameron Clique and most attracted to UKIP. The idea that people in the Countryside will vote conservative seems to me to be out-dated.

    I suppose it would depend how posh the rural parts of the seat are. Well-off country areas will have a lot of UKIP support, but still favour the Tories.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    Labour have gained Clydesdale South from SNP

    Obama effect?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    Political Scrapbook ‏@PSbook 43s

    COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC

    And yet we held Eastleigh.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Bryant singing the praises of the Lab-Con pact to keep UKIP out...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News - shooting at Seattle Pacific University.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Mr corporeal hope you've had that looked at by a health professional
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    Political Scrapbook ‏@PSbook 43s

    COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC

    And yet we held Eastleigh.
    Wow
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,948
    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    Political Scrapbook ‏@PSbook 43s

    COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC

    And yet we held Eastleigh.
    And if you replicate that experience and throw every activist you have into every seat you want to retain simultaneously I'm sure it will be fine.

    Or, if the LibDems don't have a Tardis, it won't.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Mr JS the US really need to sort their gun laws out
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Labour have gained Clydesdale South from SNP

    Obama effect?
    I believe that this gain means that SNP no longer have the largest number of councillors in Scotland , Labour have overtaken them because of by election gains and defections since 2012
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    "UKIP have won the first of the six major polling districts by a small margin reports say."

    On the twitter feed next to the video of the count.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    edited June 2014
    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    Political Scrapbook ‏@PSbook 43s

    COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC

    And yet we held Eastleigh.
    Your aggregate vote share across the 15 GB by-elections before tonight is 11.6%, that's 9.6% down on the GE across those seats.

    PS sorry to hear about your hand - get well soon!
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    #RUMOURED Newark vote share at the moment: CON ~37% UKIP ~33% LAB ~18% LDEM ~2%
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Hank Marvin doesn't look his 72 years
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958

    Labour have gained Clydesdale South from SNP

    Obama effect?
    I believe that this gain means that SNP no longer have the largest number of councillors in Scotland , Labour have overtaken them because of by election gains and defections since 2012
    But, but, but, the Nats tell us only the SNP speak for Scotland, you must be wrong.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Spectator live blog:

    "A higher turnout would help Ukip as polls have shown their voters are the most likely to traipse down to the polling station."

    Isn't it the other way round? A lower turnout helps UKIP?

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/06/live-newark-by-election/
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Sky News ‏@SkyNews 18s
    Four Shot On University Campus In Seattle http://news.sky.com/story/1276584/four-shot-on-university-campus-in-seattle
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News - shooting at Seattle Pacific University.

  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    I was about to post that those who have backed UKIP at 99.0 on Betfair have placed a great bet because they can lay back at around 20.0 and make a very tidy quick profit.

    But the opportunity has gone. Betfair has pronounced. The Tories have won this. No Back Price is available on the Tories and the Lay price is the minimum possible, 1.01. The UKIP Back and Lay prices are 100 and 300 respectively.

    The only doubt about the result is that the amounts available to bet are pretty small.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Snap! I was just thinking the same thing, he is looking well.
    ToryJim said:

    Hank Marvin doesn't look his 72 years

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    Political Scrapbook ‏@PSbook 43s

    COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC

    And yet we held Eastleigh.
    Wow
    Wow indeed.

    Trust me, as a Lib Dem and a Welsh rugby fan, at some point good performances and moral victories wear thin and you yearn for some actual wins.

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    Political Scrapbook ‏@PSbook 43s

    COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC

    And yet we held Eastleigh.
    And if you replicate that experience and throw every activist you have into every seat you want to retain simultaneously I'm sure it will be fine.

    Or, if the LibDems don't have a Tardis, it won't.
    *shrugs*

    UKIP and the Tories didn't exactly half-arse it in Eastleigh
    ToryJim said:

    Mr corporeal hope you've had that looked at by a health professional

    I have, hence my absence from here tonight, (and my inability to bring you up short for preferring Disraeli to Gladstone, and restrain TSE from his betting excesses).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,528

    ToryJim said:

    I've drafted the results thread it begins with

    "History is made as..."

    That covers all bases
    It does, I've got two versions up, one if the Tories hold or one if UKIP win.

    PBers must hope UKIP don't win.

    If they do, I'll never ever ever shut up about by 99/1 winner
    I wish you the best of luck.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Swiss_Bob said:

    "UKIP have won the first of the six major polling districts by a small margin reports say."

    On the twitter feed next to the video of the count.

    Not good enough for UKIP if those are the central Newark polling districts.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Sean_F said:

    ToryJim said:

    I've drafted the results thread it begins with

    "History is made as..."

    That covers all bases
    It does, I've got two versions up, one if the Tories hold or one if UKIP win.

    PBers must hope UKIP don't win.

    If they do, I'll never ever ever shut up about by 99/1 winner
    I wish you the best of luck.

    Thanks.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    As liquidity is so low, it could be a false market. I've laid the 1.01 and backed the 100 on Betfair.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    @DPJHodges: The Newark result is about to demonstrate Labour is struggling to be seen as a party of protest, never mind a party of government.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Xlibris1 ‏@Xlibris1 3m
    A Labour source says: ‘Looking like clear Tory win with Ukip 2nd and us third ! And Bus Pass Elvis 4th ? Clegg 5th ?

    Richard Willis ‏@CllrRWillis 5m
    Clydesdale South (South Lanarkshire) Result: LAB: 42.0% (+8.8) GAIN SNP: 32.9% (-14.0) CONS: 18.5% (+4.5) UKIP:6.6% (+6.6)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Tories backable again...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs won't get 2% overall! they'll get at least 4% IMO.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,948
    I hate that Patrick Mercer. Andrew Neil having to fill for hours and hours. Torture.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Surely Bus Pass can't have beaten LD?

    If they have then goodness knows what happens?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Jon Ashworth really spinning badly.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    edited June 2014
    Well I've backed and laid again at 100/1.01 and got matched to a further £10.

    So someone is sure this is over.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Malcolm Bruce thinks Labour lost their deposit in Eastleigh: they actually got 9.8%.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    Political Scrapbook ‏@PSbook 43s

    COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC

    And yet we held Eastleigh.
    Your aggregate vote share across the 15 GB by-elections before tonight is 11.6%, that's 9.6% down on the GE across those seats.

    PS sorry to hear about your hand - get well soon!
    Thanks Sunil, making typing bloody difficult
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    Political Scrapbook ‏@PSbook 43s

    COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC

    And yet we held Eastleigh.
    Your aggregate vote share across the 15 GB by-elections before tonight is 11.6%, that's 9.6% down on the GE across those seats.

    PS sorry to hear about your hand - get well soon!
    Thanks Sunil, making typing bloody difficult
    I feel your pain
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    *Rumored Newark vote share as of 5 mins ago: UKIP 36% Conservative 34% Labour 18% Lim Dem 2%"

    More from the Twitter feed at the count.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    Political Scrapbook ‏@PSbook 43s

    COMPETITION TIME: Can you guess which party will lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament? #Newark pic.twitter.com/KthCJ6dnOC

    And yet we held Eastleigh.
    Your aggregate vote share across the 15 GB by-elections before tonight is 11.6%, that's 9.6% down on the GE across those seats.

    PS sorry to hear about your hand - get well soon!
    Thanks Sunil, making typing bloody difficult
    I'm well versed in typing with one hand :)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    £1295 available on the Tories at 1.01
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Andrew Neil has said three or four times now

    "The four main parties"

    The times they are a changin'
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Swiss_Bob. That would shift the betting!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Tories now at 1.02
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Swiss_Bob said:

    *Rumored Newark vote share as of 5 mins ago: UKIP 36% Conservative 34% Labour 18% Lim Dem 2%"

    More from the Twitter feed at the count.

    I don't think it's possible to get such accurate figures at this stage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Curtice - Sounding positive for UKIP, less so for Labour.
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    stjohn said:

    Swiss_Bob. That would shift the betting!

    Twitter feed is on the right:

    http://www.newark-sherwooddc.public-i.tv/core/portal/newarkbyelection
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2014
    Swiss_Bob said:

    *Rumored Newark vote share as of 5 mins ago: UKIP 36% Conservative 34% Labour 18% Lim Dem 2%"

    More from the Twitter feed at the count.

    Can you post your sources? Thanks! You just did...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Benchmark for UKIP 30%.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    John Curtice saying if UKIP get 30% or more it will be a remarkable performance

    Also saying ridiculous that anyone says it would be a failure if UKIP didnt win

This discussion has been closed.