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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Final Survation poll on Newark

SystemSystem Posts: 11,691
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Final Survation poll on Newark

Since Survation’s poll last week, Conservatives have gained 6 points and UKIP have dropped 1 point, whilst Labour has dropped 5 points from 27 to 22, which reflects the sheer level of effort put in by the Tories, and Labour getting squeezed in a two horse race.

Read the full story here


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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics · 4 mins
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead now six points: CON 31%, LAB 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,346
    "A great day, comrades! We sail into history!"
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,422
    So Survation now in line with Ashcroft.
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    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    "The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night and today, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip"

    Rather proves their point about the 3 is one liblabcon party

    PS First
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Lib Dems on 4!!! Will BusPassElvis beat them..that is the story to watch..
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    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    PPS: Blast
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,346
    Tykejohnno said:

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics · 4 mins
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead now six points: CON 31%, LAB 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%

    YouGov/The Sunil:

    Tory/UKIP 46%
    Progressives 45%

    OR:

    COA 39%
    Lab 37%
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    I think deserve a lot of praise for not writing in the thread header, Sleazy broken UKIP on the slide.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    History being made, Labour voted Conservative for first time ever.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    For Labour to lose votes in a by-election when they are in opposition and started the election campaign second to a government party would be an enormous feck-up for them.

    It's one thing to have Labour voters vote tactically for the Lib Dems in somewhere like Eastleigh, but to have some Labour voters switching to UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose and some Labour voters switching to the Tories to keep UKIP out would be a balls-up of the highest order.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,422
    I wonder if this is indicative of a late anti-UKIP swing. A 15pt margin would be decent but could it be a bigger margin?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I would like them to hold deposit as I took shadsys bet on this one.

    Nonetheless it does imply a lot of anti UKIP tactical voting. Being disliked more than the Tories makes for curious bedfellows.
    timmo said:

    Lib Dems on 4!!! Will BusPassElvis beat them..that is the story to watch..

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think deserve a lot of praise for not writing in the thread header, Sleazy broken UKIP on the slide.

    YouGov,sleazy broken tories on the slide ;-)

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "A great day, comrades! We sail into history!"

    So fitting that the Newark victory comes on the 70th anniversary of the Normandy landings.

    A second British triumph against fascism in less than a century.

    And on two fronts too. I predict the tanks will have reached both Edinburgh and Paris by the end of September.

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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Speedy said:

    History being made, Labour voted Conservative for first time ever.

    As has been pointed out several times, UKIP has detoxified the Tories. It's looking more and more like a Tory landslide in 2015.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,020
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    "The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night and today, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip"

    Rather proves their point about the 3 is one liblabcon party

    PS First

    It also demonstrates the mountain UKIP has to climb to get even a single MP. If there is a lot of tactical voting (Conservatives for the LibDems in Eastleigh, LibDems for Conservatives in Newark, etc. etc), you could easily end up with a situation where the LibDems get 30 seats on 10% of the vote, and UKIP get 0 on 20%.
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    So are we looking at a Tory majority of around 5,000?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    None of these polls will pick up a late swing in the last two days, if one happened.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Very mixed week for Con - good news if they win Newark easily but the YouGov national polls really are terrible:

    YouGov average Lab lead so far this week = 5.25 (4 polls).

    That is the highest average Lab lead for 13 weeks - ie since the start of March - a real reversal of fortunes compared to just two weeks ago - when average Lab lead was 2.0 (and the week before that it was 1.8) - and no obvious explanation.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    That will teach UKIP not to put unreconstructed far right wingers as candidates, but also it greatly diminishes their chances of gaining any seats next year.
    If everyone is voting tactically against them the only way for them to win a seat is to get a majority of the vote, something impossible.
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    shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    I wonder why Survation have bothered doing this and releasing it after the polls close?
    Perhaps it's a methodological experiment.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,422
    Interestingly it is almost exactly 71 years since the last Newark by election held on 8 June 1943. Then a Conservative won succeeding a Conservative.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Steady on ALP. Kippers are not fascists. They do not have that homoerotic dress sense for a start...
    AveryLP said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "A great day, comrades! We sail into history!"

    So fitting that the Newark victory comes on the 70th anniversary of the Normandy landings.

    A second British triumph against fascism in less than a century.

    And on two fronts too. I predict the tanks will have reached both Edinburgh and Paris by the end of September.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Extrapolating from one event to everything else can be dangerous. If we took the first few years of Hannibal's prolonged time in Italy we could have calculated he'd kill every Roman in a decade or two (I wish I could remember the exact percentages, but it was a huge proportion of the population. I think I worked out it'd be the modern equivalent of 200 MPs [if we had a politico-military approach similar to the Romans], four Prime Ministers and several million people].
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    Easterross said:

    So are we looking at a Tory majority of around 5,000?

    From survation's email.

    With a turnout of 50%, our final figures would translate into a Conservative majority in the seat of about 5,400 - down from 16,152 at the last election
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Have you pioneered a successful conversion therapy for the Kippers, Dr. Sox?

    Please let me know when it will be approved by those NICE people and made available for general NHS procedures.
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Steady on ALP. Kippers are not fascists. They do not have that homoerotic dress sense for a start...

    AveryLP said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "A great day, comrades! We sail into history!"

    So fitting that the Newark victory comes on the 70th anniversary of the Normandy landings.

    A second British triumph against fascism in less than a century.

    And on two fronts too. I predict the tanks will have reached both Edinburgh and Paris by the end of September.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    edited June 2014
    shadsy said:

    I wonder why Survation have bothered doing this and releasing it after the polls close?
    Perhaps it's a methodological experiment.

    That, and to see if there was any swings since the first poll.

    Edit: And they couldn't release their poll whilst the polls were open
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    "The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night and today, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip"

    Rather proves their point about the 3 is one liblabcon party

    PS First

    It also demonstrates the mountain UKIP has to climb to get even a single MP. If there is a lot of tactical voting (Conservatives for the LibDems in Eastleigh, LibDems for Conservatives in Newark, etc. etc), you could easily end up with a situation where the LibDems get 30 seats on 10% of the vote, and UKIP get 0 on 20%.
    Its called majoritarianism, if the 80% of the public hate the other 20% then they can easily exclude them from society, the economy or representation, you see it in any country with a significant minority.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sky News ✔ @SkyNews

    GUARDIAN FRONT PAGE: "I'll not beg Britain, vows Juncker" #skypapers pic.twitter.com/GAThUY2EEr

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    shadsy said:

    I wonder why Survation have bothered doing this and releasing it after the polls close?
    Perhaps it's a methodological experiment.

    Probably pre-booked and financed by the Kippers with an option to disassociate if the campaign didn't go to plan.
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    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Nigel throwing in the towel? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/byelection/10879200/Newark-by-election-2014-result.html
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,873
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Speedy said:

    History being made, Labour voted Conservative for first time ever.

    As has been pointed out several times, UKIP has detoxified the Tories. It's looking more and more like a Tory landslide in 2015.

    Yes, if only the Conservatives could get 1,000 activists into every constituency and get the Prime Minister to stop running the country and visit every constituency four times, who knows ?

    On the other hand, YouGov suggests that if anyone is heading for a landslide, it's Labour but I'm sure you'd be happy with that ?

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    From the data tables

    MEN Ukip 36.8/CON 36.2/LAB 15.7

    WOMEN Ukip 16.8/CON 47.6/LAB 27.7"
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Easterross said:

    So are we looking at a Tory majority of around 5,000?

    Shadsy's forecast would be a Tory majority of about 3,650.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    They are like any over-tired toddlers. They just need a bottle and a lie down.
    AveryLP said:

    Have you pioneered a successful conversion therapy for the Kippers, Dr. Sox?

    Please let me know when it will be approved by those NICE people and made available for general NHS procedures.

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Steady on ALP. Kippers are not fascists. They do not have that homoerotic dress sense for a start...

    AveryLP said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "A great day, comrades! We sail into history!"

    So fitting that the Newark victory comes on the 70th anniversary of the Normandy landings.

    A second British triumph against fascism in less than a century.

    And on two fronts too. I predict the tanks will have reached both Edinburgh and Paris by the end of September.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,346
    AveryLP said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "A great day, comrades! We sail into history!"

    So fitting that the Newark victory comes on the 70th anniversary of the Normandy landings.

    A second British triumph against fascism in less than a century.

    And on two fronts too. I predict the tanks will have reached both Edinburgh and Paris by the end of September.

    Comrade Chancellor! You mean to say 70 years ago Europe was enslaved by a European super-state, and the same will be true in the 21st century if the Euro-federalists have their way?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndyJS said:

    None of these polls will pick up a late swing in the last two days, if one happened.

    The only late swing took place in Valletta, Andy.

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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited June 2014
    My word aren't people getting into a frenzy that some Labour and Libdems voters have supposedly voted for the Tories in a safe Tory seat. What's for certain is they won't be doing that in the marginals and they won't be doing that if the General Election looks like a tight result that could go to the Tories. Every seat lost by the Tories at the general election is a seat won by Labour.

    It will only happen at the general election if the result is not in doubt and what chance of that is there......?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,948
    rcs1000 said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    "The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night and today, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip"

    Rather proves their point about the 3 is one liblabcon party

    PS First

    It also demonstrates the mountain UKIP has to climb to get even a single MP. If there is a lot of tactical voting (Conservatives for the LibDems in Eastleigh, LibDems for Conservatives in Newark, etc. etc), you could easily end up with a situation where the LibDems get 30 seats on 10% of the vote, and UKIP get 0 on 20%.
    UKIPs best chances are in marginals I think. I wouldnt have thought there will be anti UKIP tactical voting in those seats
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,873
    timmo said:

    Lib Dems on 4!!! Will BusPassElvis beat them..that is the story to watch..

    Well, if the LDs finish fifth, sixth or even seventh, I won't be too bothered.

    I'll be too busy chuckling at the numpty who was going on about the Lib Dems losing control of Sutton and how Labour was going to win seven seats.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,346
    70 years ago tonight, Anglo-American airborne troops were already preparing to drop behind enemy lines in Normandy.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Those activists have gone home with the scent of victory in their nostrils.

    And a few hangovers by the sound of it.
    stodge said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Speedy said:

    History being made, Labour voted Conservative for first time ever.

    As has been pointed out several times, UKIP has detoxified the Tories. It's looking more and more like a Tory landslide in 2015.

    Yes, if only the Conservatives could get 1,000 activists into every constituency and get the Prime Minister to stop running the country and visit every constituency four times, who knows ?

    On the other hand, YouGov suggests that if anyone is heading for a landslide, it's Labour but I'm sure you'd be happy with that ?

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    isamisam Posts: 40,948
    My favourite contemporary band are Haim... here they are dedicating a song to audience member David Cameron!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4N1FqYwDH9I
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Don't forget the Dunfermline by-election, where the bookies still expected Labour to win with the candidates on the platform.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the data tables

    MEN Ukip 36.8/CON 36.2/LAB 15.7

    WOMEN Ukip 16.8/CON 47.6/LAB 27.7"

    The Helmer Effect (I named it first).
    Unappealing, old, sexist, chauvinist, out of touch man who's opinion results in extrordinary hate by women towards him.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,311
    edited June 2014
    Nope, I'm still holding out for a surprise Kiptacular. If the masses can flood to UKIP in an EU election just for sh*ts and giggles then why not here? Dave's government isn't so great that it's immune from satire.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,350
    MikeL said:

    Very mixed week for Con - good news if they win Newark easily but the YouGov national polls really are terrible:

    YouGov average Lab lead so far this week = 5.25 (4 polls).

    That is the highest average Lab lead for 13 weeks - ie since the start of March - a real reversal of fortunes compared to just two weeks ago - when average Lab lead was 2.0 (and the week before that it was 1.8) - and no obvious explanation.

    Labour has benefited from the Even Worse LibDem fortnight (which we'd really not thought possible) as well as a little swingback from UKIP as the "right wing nutter" meme in the media finally started to seep through. The botched Queen's Speech can't have helped either. If UKIP does poorly tonight, it's possible to imagine a Tory recovery and a return to something like 38-35 figures. But we probably need to wait a week or so until things settle down.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    Hard to believe that when Mercer quit, the Tories 4/5 to take the seat.
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    ProudToBeLabourProudToBeLabour Posts: 7
    The British People are fed up with David Camera-On and his Tired Cliched Rhetoric. Only Ed Miliband can save Britain from the Cost of Living Crisis. Our Bankers' Bonus Tax will let us Build Our Way Out of Recession. Miliband is the only One Nation Prime Minister. The choice at the next election is clear: Labour Investment versus Tory Cuts. Labour: Hardworking Britain Better Off.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AveryLP said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "A great day, comrades! We sail into history!"

    So fitting that the Newark victory comes on the 70th anniversary of the Normandy landings.

    A second British triumph against fascism in less than a century.

    And on two fronts too. I predict the tanks will have reached both Edinburgh and Paris by the end of September.

    Comrade Chancellor! You mean to say 70 years ago Europe was enslaved by a European super-state, and the same will be true in the 21st century if the Euro-federalists have their way?
    The European Union is not fascist, Comrade.

    It is part of our team. The EUSSR!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Labour, splendid to see you back on.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole Jun 2
    Fav moment from Newark. Chap takes UKIP leaflet in town sq, cross wife snatches it: "You're not voting for them, or we are getting divorced"

    That should have given us an idea.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Cue much short-lived gloating from the PB Tories heralding a new dawn with Dave leading them,like Moses,to the promised land.It will be unbearable for a little while on this particular blog.However,they should listen to the wise words of SunTzu.

    "If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected."
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Those activists have gone home with the scent of victory in their nostrils.

    And a few hangovers by the sound of it.

    stodge said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Speedy said:

    History being made, Labour voted Conservative for first time ever.

    As has been pointed out several times, UKIP has detoxified the Tories. It's looking more and more like a Tory landslide in 2015.

    Yes, if only the Conservatives could get 1,000 activists into every constituency and get the Prime Minister to stop running the country and visit every constituency four times, who knows ?

    On the other hand, YouGov suggests that if anyone is heading for a landslide, it's Labour but I'm sure you'd be happy with that ?

    Well everyone should experience success once in their life.........
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Nope, I'm still holding out for a surprise Kiptacular. If the masses can flood to UKIP in an EU election just for sh*ts and giggles then why not here? Dave's government isn't so great that it's immune from satire.

    Because women and Labour voters hate Richard Helmer, he was too right wing.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Pete, didn't Moses die before reaching the Promised Land?

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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Adam Boulton on SKY News says UKIP party workers are saying they have not managed to win from early indications - result may be earlier than expected as counting has already begun
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    A little bird is whistling that the Newark vote is 50%±
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    Oh and this poll really does make that University of Loughborough *poll* look like a really outlier.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I doubt if anti-UKIP tactical voting is a factor. Why should it be?

    Still, maybe history will be made in this by-election. Is it possible, yes, I think we have to consider the possibility that it is possible, that, for the first time in recorded history, it might turn out that Patrick Mercer has done a favour to David Cameron?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    All gone from Betfair on the Tories.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    #BritainElects ‏@britainelects 1m

    #RUMOUR that Newark by-election turnout is nearing 50%.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    volcanopete said:

    Cue much short-lived gloating from the PB Tories heralding a new dawn with Dave leading them,like Moses,to the promised land.It will be unbearable for a little while on this particular blog.However,they should listen to the wise words of SunTzu.

    "If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected."

    Yeah, like Miliband has read Sun Tzu or would even be capable of understanding it if he tried. He may well win next May but if he does it will have nothing to do with his grasp of strategy, or anything else.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    Tories to romp home?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    edited June 2014
    RobD said:

    Tories to romp home?

    To romp home like Scipio Africanus at Zama
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Tories to romp home?

    To romp home like Scipio Africanus at Zama
    I bow to your superior historical knowledge. ;-) From the wiki, looks like Scipio didn't do too badly!
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh and this poll really does make that University of Loughborough *poll* look like a really outlier.

    No it makes it look like a blatantly made up attempt to ramp

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Tories to romp home?

    To romp home like Scipio Africanus at Zama
    I bow to your superior historical knowledge. ;-) From the wiki, looks like Scipio didn't do too badly!
    He was up against a very inept opponent.

    Roger Helmer = Hannibal
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Tories to romp home?

    To romp home like Scipio Africanus at Zama
    I bow to your superior historical knowledge. ;-) From the wiki, looks like Scipio didn't do too badly!
    He was up against a very inept opponent.

    Roger Helmer = Hannibal
    And I assume there are elephants involved in this analogy?? ;')
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh and this poll really does make that University of Loughborough *poll* look like a really outlier.

    No it makes it look like a blatantly made up attempt to ramp

    I was trying to be polite.

    I'm going to do a thread on that poll for the weekend.

    If it's too good to be true, then it probably is.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Tories to romp home?

    To romp home like Scipio Africanus at Zama
    To be crushed in the jaws of a modern Cannae.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    UKIP might win a reprieve from the media due to the safety of the seat, but this was their worst campaign and candidate for at least a decade.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    ProudToBeLabour said:

    The British People are fed up with David Camera-On and his Tired Cliched Rhetoric. Only Ed Miliband can save Britain from the Cost of Living Crisis. Our Bankers' Bonus Tax will let us Build Our Way Out of Recession. Miliband is the only One Nation Prime Minister. The choice at the next election is clear: Labour Investment versus Tory Cuts. Labour: Hardworking Britain Better Off.

    Good to see you back on form, PTBL.

    You misfired more than a bit on your previous post!

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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    volcanopete said:

    Cue much short-lived gloating from the PB Tories heralding a new dawn with Dave leading them,like Moses,to the promised land.It will be unbearable for a little while on this particular blog.However,they should listen to the wise words of SunTzu.

    "If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected."

    Really?

    Your defence is that Labour are cunningly luring the Tories into a false sense of security in the hope that they will arrogantly assume the next election is in the bag? That's why they didn't try all that hard in Newark?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Eagles, that's as silly as giving a magister equitum parity with the dictator.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    rogue poll or lost deposit? - come on the people's army..!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Tories to romp home?

    To romp home like Scipio Africanus at Zama
    To be crushed in the jaws of a modern Cannae.
    Scipio Africanus wasn't at Cannae.

    Surely in all the lessons I've given Morris Dancer on classical history.

    PBers should know I'm the Daddy of Classical History.

    My analogies are always perfect.

    I crush my opponents like Boomer and Franks in Mesopotamia
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP 100/1 with Betfair.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2014
    Its at times like this one misses the utterly dishonest aspect(s) of tim. It wouldn't matter who won, the poison would be being injected.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh and this poll really does make that University of Loughborough *poll* look like a really outlier.

    No it makes it look like a blatantly made up attempt to ramp

    I was trying to be polite.

    I'm going to do a thread on that poll for the weekend.

    If it's too good to be true, then it probably is.
    Gupta's law of creative anomaly ;)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh and this poll really does make that University of Loughborough *poll* look like a really outlier.

    No it makes it look like a blatantly made up attempt to ramp

    I was trying to be polite.

    I'm going to do a thread on that poll for the weekend.

    If it's too good to be true, then it probably is.
    Gupta's law of creative anomaly ;)
    That and I'm scared during the next general election, a typo by me is going to cause anarchy.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Eagles, you've got the judgement of Varro and the objectivity of Flaminius.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    ProudToBeLabour said:

    The British People are fed up with David Camera-On and his Tired Cliched Rhetoric. Only Ed Miliband can save Britain from the Cost of Living Crisis. Our Bankers' Bonus Tax will let us Build Our Way Out of Recession. Miliband is the only One Nation Prime Minister. The choice at the next election is clear: Labour Investment versus Tory Cuts. Labour: Hardworking Britain Better Off.

    I love you, you stay just the right side of ridiculous, so we can tell you're a spoof, a good one, but spoof none the less.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    First lesson for UKIP, dont put candidates that are publicly too right wing.
    Second lesson, put candidates that are women friendly.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    One target for UKIP might be to get more than the winning share in Eastleigh which was 32.1%.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    Genius cartoon in the Times (no paywall)

    Craig Woodhouse ‏@craigawoodhouse 3m

    Absolutely inspired. MT “@BrookesTimes: My cartoon: It's D-Day in Europe, and Dave's still fighting the last war.

    pic.twitter.com/xi4sSmuxS2”
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, you've got the judgement of Varro and the objectivity of Flaminius.

    And the humility of Crassus just before Carrhae
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,422
    Speedy said:

    First lesson for UKIP, dont put candidates that are publicly too right wing.
    Second lesson, put candidates that are women friendly.

    Third lesson, manage expectations better. No good saying when you've lost you were never going to win if you've let expectations get ahead if themselves.

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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,311
    edited June 2014
    OblitusSumMe said:

    For Labour to lose votes in a by-election when they are in opposition and started the election campaign second to a government party would be an enormous feck-up for them.

    It's one thing to have Labour voters vote tactically for the Lib Dems in somewhere like Eastleigh, but to have some Labour voters switching to UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose and some Labour voters switching to the Tories to keep UKIP out would be a balls-up of the highest order.

    Perhaps Labour supporters will be splitting into two voting groups: the 'Camibands', those who vote Tory to keep UKIP out; the 'Bloodies', those who vote UKIP to give the Tories a bloody nose. As you say, a catastrophe for Ed Miliband if it happens and will probably rule Labour out of regaining any current Tory-held seats.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    First lesson for UKIP, dont put candidates that are publicly too right wing.
    Second lesson, put candidates that are women friendly.

    I wonder whether Diane James could have won this.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    One target for UKIP might be to get more than the winning share in Eastleigh which was 32.1%.

    Unlikely, no one is willing to vote tactically for them, only against them.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Genius cartoon in the Times (no paywall)

    Craig Woodhouse ‏@craigawoodhouse 3m

    Absolutely inspired. MT “@BrookesTimes: My cartoon: It's D-Day in Europe, and Dave's still fighting the last war.

    pic.twitter.com/xi4sSmuxS2”

    Further proof that Peter Brookes is one of the most unfunny cartoonists around.

    Now, if you want funny:

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02931/050614-MATT-web_2931580a.jpg

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Eagles, at least your becrazed utterances don't earn you his fate.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    I am still struggling to figure out what was Labour's strategy in Newark. Was it really soft-pedalling in the hope that UKIP would hoover up enough Labour voters to embarrass the Tories? So it was really hoping that enough teachers, trade unionists etc etc etc would vote for UKIP? Really?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Genius cartoon in the Times (no paywall)

    Craig Woodhouse ‏@craigawoodhouse 3m

    Absolutely inspired. MT “@BrookesTimes: My cartoon: It's D-Day in Europe, and Dave's still fighting the last war.

    pic.twitter.com/xi4sSmuxS2”

    Further proof that Peter Brookes is one of the most unfunny cartoonists around.

    Now, if you want funny:

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02931/050614-MATT-web_2931580a.jpg

    Everyone knows Matt is the funniest and best cartoonist out there.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2014
    Speedy said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Nope, I'm still holding out for a surprise Kiptacular. If the masses can flood to UKIP in an EU election just for sh*ts and giggles then why not here? Dave's government isn't so great that it's immune from satire.

    Because women and Labour voters hate Richard Helmer, he was too right wing.
    Err, his name is 'Roger' not Richard, and his problem is he's the spitting image of Rev Paul Flowers, which is only one step up from the baby eating Bishop of Bath and Wells.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    According to Survation, UKIP actually won with men but came third with women. (I know it's not an exit poll).
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,508
    MarqueeMark said:

    I am still struggling to figure out what was Labour's strategy in Newark. Was it really soft-pedalling in the hope that UKIP would hoover up enough Labour voters to embarrass the Tories? So it was really hoping that enough teachers, trade unionists etc etc etc would vote for UKIP? Really?

    You get the feeling the current Labour leadership couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Right, off for the night. Hope Elvis did well.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    I have no expectation that they will, or even should, but I really would laugh myself sick if UKIP has won in Newark. The screams of outraged entitlement would be wonderful to hear. It would probably be the biggest, and most deserved, shock to the ruling classes since 1381.
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