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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Final Survation poll on Newark

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  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Fecking get on with it!

    Amen!!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    James Landale ‏@BBCJLandale 31s

    Am told 7,000 Tory majority in Newark. Con 17000, UKIP 10,000, Lab 6,000 #newarkbyelection

    Surely it can't be that big?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    AveryLP said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    James Landale ‏@BBCJLandale 31s

    Am told 7,000 Tory majority in Newark. Con 17000, UKIP 10,000, Lab 6,000 #newarkbyelection

    Surely it can't be that big?
    That's what she said.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    So why was Farage saying 2,500?

    If majority is 7,000 it suggests he was trying to make it look close to give more favourable coverage on the night.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    The night Grant Shapps came of age.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Jenrick smiling, doesn't look like he's lost.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AveryLP said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    James Landale ‏@BBCJLandale 31s

    Am told 7,000 Tory majority in Newark. Con 17000, UKIP 10,000, Lab 6,000 #newarkbyelection

    Surely it can't be that big?
    That's what she said.
    A Malteser.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Returning Officer taking his time...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    AveryLP said:

    The night Grant Shapps came of age.

    Agreed, his stock has probably gone up a fair bit this week.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    If Landales figures are right it's Con 44ish UKIP 26ish by my calculation
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MikeL said:

    So why was Farage saying 2,500?

    If majority is 7,000 it suggests he was trying to make it look close to give more favourable coverage on the night.

    It may be that College's arithmetic is as poor as his punctuation.

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    MikeL, Diane James crossed the Rubicon when it came to UKIP GE expectation management on This Week. She was talking of UKIP reaching 50/60 MP's at the next GE, and therefore able to deliver an EU In/Out Referendum as result. Totally deluded comment after UKIP yet again failed after numerous attempts to win a Westminster by-election. This by-election like all the others before it was about electing an MP, a GE is all about electing a Government....
    MikeL said:

    Diane James agrees with Andrew Neil's proposition that UKIP need a significant block of MPs to get what they want - totally deluded as the chances of even 20 UKIP MPs is absolutely miniscule.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Christ, I've known girls that have 'arrived' quicker than this declaration.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    7K maj would mean the UKIP bubble has been deflated to a significant degree.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Finally!!!
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Bus pass elvis did well.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    ~7.2k majority!
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Majority 7400 ish. That's a tonking for UKIP.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    The bubble hasn't deflated, it has exploded!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Officially over 7k. In fact Tories got more than UKIP and Labour combined.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    If those figures are correct, it would make the Professor Curtice/Jon Ashworth spat even more delicious. Diane James saying that all UKIP MEP's will be running for Westminster seats, and that if they are successful, then the next UKIP MEP on the last election list becomes a UKIP MEP........ I can see the holes in that kind of democracy, and the reasons for voting tactically against UKIP MEP's who try it. Not a great advert for a PR voting system either.
    ToryJim said:

    If Landales figures are right it's Con 44ish UKIP 26ish by my calculation

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    ToryJim said:

    Majority 7400 ish. That's a tonking for UKIP.

    My hearing must be getting bad these day, thought he said ~17,200
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con 45
    UKIP 26
    Lab 18
    Ind 5
    Green 3
    LD 3
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con got 17,431.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    Con 17,431
    UKIP 10,028
    Lab 6,842
    Green 1,057
    LD 1,004

    Maj 7,403
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con -9
    Lab -4

    Swing Con to Lab = 2.5%
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    45% is definitely exceeding expectation management.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    Stonking victory for the Tories.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    UKIP expectation management appears to be utterly crap , and yet again, Professor Curtice is going to be feeling a bit smug.
    MikeL said:

    Con 45
    UKIP 26
    Lab 18
    Ind 5
    Green 3
    LD 3

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    A victory for common sense.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    So the polls underestimated the Tories and overestimated UKIP.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Philip_Thompson said:

    45% is definitely exceeding expectation management.

    It is only 2.4% down on 2010.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    ToryJim said:

    So the polls underestimated the Tories and overestimated UKIP.

    Everyone came out to vote tory to keep UKIP out.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Farage should be held to account over his 2,500 claim.

    The whole night's debate would have been very, very different if it had been known that the majority was 7,400.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    I have changed my prediction on UKIP winning seats in 2015, they will manage to re-elect every MP they run against.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    MikeL said:

    Farage should be held to account over his 2,500 claim.

    The whole night's debate would have been very, very different if it had been known that the majority was 7,400.

    How was the coverage on BBC (assuming that is what you watched). Unfortunately work took me away from iPlayer for the majority of the night.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    AveryLP said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    45% is definitely exceeding expectation management.

    It is only 2.4% down on 2010.
    It's actually down 9%. Con got 54% in 2010.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    UKIP 10,028 Tories 17,000 Green 1057 Lab 6142 LD 1004

    So a comfortable Tory hold in the end, Lab 3rd and LDs just behind Greens, night
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Helmer is very Tufton-Bufton.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Officially a disappointing night for UKIP then.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Farage hanged at dawn.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Glen Oglaza ‏@glenoglaza1 1m
    Tories 17,431 UKIP 10,028 Labour 6,842 Green 1,057 Lib Dem 1,004 TORY MAJ: 7, 403 Down from 16,000, but Tories will be happy, seen off #Ukip
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AveryLP said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    45% is definitely exceeding expectation management.

    It is only 2.4% down on 2010.
    2010 was Con 54%, UKIP 4%.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/newark/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger Helmer off his rocker in saying that those with a majority under 6-7000 should be worried about UKIP and they can establish a beachhead. Who has a majority of just 6000-7000 over UKIP?

    UKIP no seats looking more likely, 30-60 clearly nonsense.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Bloody hell!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    What did UKIP expect for putting the worst candidate in a prominent election for at least a decade?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MikeL said:

    AveryLP said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    45% is definitely exceeding expectation management.

    It is only 2.4% down on 2010.
    It's actually down 9%. Con got 54% in 2010.
    It must be late!

    I had Andrew Lansley's share in South Cambridgeshire up!

    My apologies.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    This election has done UKIP terrible damage in that it reaffirmed the worst parts of their image and made people scared of them to vote en mass against them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    Con 45.0%
    UKIP 25.9%
    Lab 17.7%
    Ind Baggaley 4.9%
    Green 2.7%
    LD 2.6%
    Oth 1.2%
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth 9m
    Farage very wrong about the Tory margin of victory, it was far larger than he predicted. But suspect he'll have framed the papers' coverage
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2014
    Andrew Lansley is safely the next commisioner and UKIP will have to start all over again from scratch to repair their public image after the Helmer fiasco.
    Off to bed again.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    so is it that Con down 9 and Ukip up 22?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    New Thread
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting fact: Robert Jenrick has the same date of birth as Kate Middleton, 9th January 1982.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    UKIP past its peak?

    A nadir for the LibDems or can they go lower?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    The UKIP by-election performance ramping from both Helmer and Farage on This Week proved very wide of the mark! Both suggested that the Newark result would show UKIP having their best result yet in a by-election, and that it would out perform their Eastleigh performance. They were both wrong, yet again, extremely poor expectation management from UKIP leadership. Doesn't bode well for the GE.
    fitalass said:

    UKIP expectation management appears to be utterly crap , and yet again, Professor Curtice is going to be feeling a bit smug.

    MikeL said:

    Con 45
    UKIP 26
    Lab 18
    Ind 5
    Green 3
    LD 3

This discussion has been closed.