And why all comparisons to prior elections in a 3 party world are outdated. The joy of maths is that percentage splits always add up to 100. Create a 4th main party and naturally the % split of the old 3 drop proportionally. To listen to some commentator types its as if the kippers 15%+ is new vote shares added on top.....
Twitter David Mundell MP @DavidMundellMP 4m @britainelects@ianssmart Your figures on Clydesdale South by election are wrong Con + 7.5%, lab - 2.8%, SNP -9.8, UKIP +2, greens 2.8
#BritainElects @britainelects 37m Clydesdale South (South Lanarkshire) Result: LAB - 42.0% (+8.8) SNP - 32.9% (-14.0) CON - 18.5% (+4.5) UKIP - 6.6% (+6.6)
Twitter David Mundell MP @DavidMundellMP 4m @britainelects@ianssmart Your figures on Clydesdale South by election are wrong Con + 7.5%, lab - 2.8%, SNP -9.8, UKIP +2, greens 2.8
#BritainElects @britainelects 37m Clydesdale South (South Lanarkshire) Result: LAB - 42.0% (+8.8) SNP - 32.9% (-14.0) CON - 18.5% (+4.5) UKIP - 6.6% (+6.6)
Harry Cole always comes across as something of a twat (imho).
Have you ever met him?
No (hence why I said comes across rather than is). Judging by long exposure to his twitterings/bloggings/etc.
Doesn't improve much. I dislike the attitudes of just general sneering at politics. I prefer people active in the game rather than throwing rocks from the cheap seats.
On these early leaked figures looks like UKIP done a little better than polls, Tories about the same, Labour and LDs worse. If LDs on 2% could they fall behind the Greens?
Harry Cole always comes across as something of a twat (imho).
Have you ever met him?
No (hence why I said comes across rather than is). Judging by long exposure to his twitterings/bloggings/etc.
Doesn't improve much. I dislike the attitudes of just general sneering at politics. I prefer people active in the game rather than throwing rocks from the cheap seats.
You've met him?
(I also agree, FDR's Man in the Arena speech is a favourite of mine).
On these early leaked figures looks like UKIP done a little better than polls, Tories about the same, Labour and LDs worse. If LDs on 2% could they fall behind the Greens?
Harry Cole always comes across as something of a twat (imho).
Have you ever met him?
No (hence why I said comes across rather than is). Judging by long exposure to his twitterings/bloggings/etc.
Doesn't improve much. I dislike the attitudes of just general sneering at politics. I prefer people active in the game rather than throwing rocks from the cheap seats.
You've met him?
(I also agree, FDR's Man in the Arena speech is a favourite of mine).
Yes. For my sins.
I love FDRs Madison Sq Garden speech just before the 1936 election. Wonderful crafting.
On these early leaked figures looks like UKIP done a little better than polls, Tories about the same, Labour and LDs worse. If LDs on 2% could they fall behind the Greens?
Any news on BuspassElvis?
What happened to your forecast of big Conservative and Labour gains from the Lib Dems in Sutton 2 weeks ago ?
Harry Cole always comes across as something of a twat (imho).
Have you ever met him?
No (hence why I said comes across rather than is). Judging by long exposure to his twitterings/bloggings/etc.
Doesn't improve much. I dislike the attitudes of just general sneering at politics. I prefer people active in the game rather than throwing rocks from the cheap seats.
You've met him?
(I also agree, FDR's Man in the Arena speech is a favourite of mine).
Yes. For my sins.
I love FDRs Madison Sq Garden speech just before the 1936 election. Wonderful crafting.
Your sins must be great indeed.
Wiki informs me I've been naming it wrong all the time. Apparently the speech is properly called Citizenship in a Republic.
I doubt Ukip will win 60 seats next year but people saying it's a million to one shot are wrong. Trouble for Ukip is they're back in the low teens after the Euros. They haven't really moved forward in the last 12 months. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if the economy hadn't picked up.
UKIP have been a bit unlucky in that there are probably about 50 seats they could have won in a by-election but none of them have become vacant during the parliament.
UKIP have been a bit unlucky in that there are probably about 50 seats they could have won in a by-election but none of them have become vacant during the parliament.
That's one in 13 seats. How many by elections have we had? And anyway they only really picked up around 2012 didn't they?
Comments
UKIP source at Newark predicting Tories "will touch 40%", with them 2nd on 31-32%, Labour 18% & LibDems 2%. Tories would be happy with 40%.
Lab performance indicates not enough enthusiasm to suggest Lab is upcoming party of Government.
Guido Fawkes ✔ @GuidoFawkes
UKIP briefing out Tories 40%, UKIP 32%, Lab 18%, LD 2%
#RUMOUR of revised Newark vote share at the moment: CON - 40% UKIP - 32% LAB - 18% LDEM - 2%
David Mundell MP @DavidMundellMP 4m
@britainelects @ianssmart Your figures on Clydesdale South by election are wrong Con + 7.5%, lab - 2.8%, SNP -9.8, UKIP +2, greens 2.8
#BritainElects @britainelects 37m
Clydesdale South (South Lanarkshire) Result: LAB - 42.0% (+8.8) SNP - 32.9% (-14.0) CON - 18.5% (+4.5) UKIP - 6.6% (+6.6)
More or less all the emerging parties have won seats from way behind at by-elections as they came up. So the track record's there.
It's not necessarily the only way of course, but it doesn't bode well for their seat winning prospects at the GE.
Lab 1492 - 40.7% down 3.6%
SNP 1170 - 30.9% down 9.4%
Con 659 - 18.0% up 7.6%
UKIP 233 - 6.4% up 2.4%
Green 104 - 2.9% up 2.9%
Ian Smart @ianssmart 4m
@DavidMundellMP This Scottish Tory revival is in danger of getting out of hand:-)
Guido Fawkes ✔ @GuidoFawkes
Turnout 52.79%
Which is the 4th ?
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
Official turnout in Newark by-election is 52.79%
UKIP vs LD at the GE
£100 at EVEN money GE 2015 vote percentage
I will buy UKIP seats at 2 for £500 off you
UKIP might just miss Curtice target.
Turnout in the #Newark by-election announced as 52.79%
[The Mogg outperforming Hancock by a long margin].
My fav Conservative
It's not going to happen.
Betting aside, I'm relieved the Kippers are back in their can - at least for now.
Will reduce the average this parliament, if so...
But there is no need to crow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fe_HtA5zw9U&feature=kp
There isn't a one in a million chance of it happening.
Has she put her life savings on UKIP getting over 5 seats on Betfair?
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/mar/01/eastleigh-byelection-results-2013
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_by-election,_2013
Told about Hague, 1989...
"Well, yes, but his majority was reduced to 100".
Nope, that was McLoughlin, 1986...
(I also agree, FDR's Man in the Arena speech is a favourite of mine).
Diane James makes some strange comments.. she is good but maybe over rated
Wonder where a spread line would be set right now though. Certainly over 1.
"Fellow #UKIP members at the count are saying that the #LibDems are at around 2%, UKIP at 36%! Dead heat with the #TORIES"
I love FDRs Madison Sq Garden speech just before the 1936 election. Wonderful crafting.
Are people who prefer non enitities like Hancock really Conservative?
But there is latent anger in her eyes.
Not a woman to cross I would guess.
Also noticed for the first time yesterday that there is a road sign for Newark 2 miles from my house ... never noted that before.
Con 15,500 (40%)
UKIP 13,000 (33%)
Lab 7,000 (18%)
LD 1,500 (4%)
Based on what Farage was saying.
In Newark?
I wonder if the result will cause him to stay up until 3:42 am.
The forced smile of the defeated.
Eastleigh Council reckon turnout was 52.8
http://www.eastleigh.gov.uk/the-council/elections-and-voting/by-election2013/by-election-result-2013.aspx
Again.
Not going to break the mould at this rate...
And as he was a staunch Tebbitite, he may even have flirted with the Kippers had he still been alive.
Wiki informs me I've been naming it wrong all the time. Apparently the speech is properly called Citizenship in a Republic.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizenship_in_a_Republic
His problem is that a successor to Laura Sandys has not yet been chosen. So he risks being trumped (e.g. by Boris) if he declares too early.
I guess what he is doing is trying to force Thanet South Conservatives Association to make a choice of candidate before he declares.
In tone and manner, yes.
Must have been a hard week.
I have just gone to Wikipedia to find out the turnout for the Newark constituency vote at the last GE 2010. (51,228, 71.4%).
I did not know that Newark's elected MP in 1832 was the "TORY CANDIDATE", William Ewart Gladstone!
Shows how much I know.
Expectations management or a straight estimate? Sounds like the latter.
[Should be answer to corporeal @ 1:26]
https://mobile.twitter.com/NSDCouncil