Biden has drifted to 1.08 on Betfair. Has anything happened or is this simply what I forecast yesterday, that punters would want to free up funds for betting on other events?
People realising this is going to the supreme court?
Trumps claim would be 100,000/1 on merit.
What price are you willing to back Kavanaugh et al rule on merit? Many here are very confident they will put country and the law ahead of partisanship, but I wont be backing them doing that at just over 90%.
I think that's about the most ridiculous thing I've read about this election so far.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
Obama has once in a generation charisma and gravitas ahead of his years. Not something easily repeated. Presenting yourself as Obama will only highlight the gaps. AOC is a polarising figure.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
If AOC runs in 2024 she will have been 35 for less than a month on the day of the election. I'm sure her time will come but it won't be until 2028 or even 2032
Lots of references to "this" going to the Supreme Court floating around today. Can someone enlighten me what "this" (i.e. what specific issue) the SC will be asked to rule upon. In 2000 it was the validity or otherwise of a couple of hundred votes. Here...what? What relief could be given?
This is ~ a combo of say Evens Dems to win the next election, then 25-1 for Buttigieg to get past Biden AND Harris ?
I think it's too skinny personally
I agree it's not great odds for Buttigieg at this stage, although I'd suggest Democrats are rather better than evens to win the next election. They aren't nailed on by any means, but they do keep on winning the popular vote, and the GOP have a lot of very thorny issues to deal with in terms of either escaping from or embracing the legacy of Trump. Democrats have issues of their own, but not on that scale. I'd put it closer to 1-2.
Lots of references to "this" going to the Supreme Court floating around today. Can someone enlighten me what "this" (i.e. what specific issue) the SC will be asked to rule upon. In 2000 it was the validity or otherwise of a couple of hundred votes. Here...what? What relief could be given?
They’re ruling on the ballots that arrived between the 3rd and 5th in PA but had ED postmarking. There aren’t many of them. Pittsburgh had ~1k. Don’t even think they’re in the official reporting totals yet.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Sisters are doing it too, apparently.
Ever since Lilyallengate my subconscious is improvising earworms on the lines of "Ooooh I do like to 'ave a wa-ha-hank" sung in a quavery mockney accent. Now yours will too, if you have ever heard a Lily Allen song.
90% of Outstanding ballots in Nevada are from Clark County
Ninety.... Percent....
JUST CALL THE DAMN THING. CALL IT, CALL IT, CALL IT
The main interest in this election now comes down to the staring contest between TV networks, with the others all keen to see Fox News blink first, provoking an hilarious meltdown from the Toddler in Chief (and a minor civil war on the alt right).
Lots of references to "this" going to the Supreme Court floating around today. Can someone enlighten me what "this" (i.e. what specific issue) the SC will be asked to rule upon. In 2000 it was the validity or otherwise of a couple of hundred votes. Here...what? What relief could be given?
Agreed. The problem is that it is difficult to see what issue is likely to swing the election in any one State for Trump. So, for example, if they were asked to rule that ballots postmarked on or before the election day but received afterwards were invalid where might that swing? Possibly Georgia. So he still loses. Trump would need to overturn 4 States. Its just not possible.
I’m sure everyone has heard me sing this tune before but the overseas ballots are not “military ballots”. It’s misleading to call them that. They’re a mix of roughly 40% active military and 60% US expat vote in total. The late arrivals are more likely to be the latter. This is why they’re breaking for Biden, because US expats are not beloved of him.
Although Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has already said there will be a recount, can the networks call it for Biden? He's up 7,500 votes with 98% counted so no matter how many times they recount the vote he ain't losing it.
Just had a flick through the last thread. I think Donald Junior might be even more chilling than the man himself. I'd always thought Ivanka and Jarred would fit most comfortably into any remake of The Addams Family but now I'd give it Don Junior.
Are you arguing that Don Snr should not fight to the death? Trumps aggrieved niece was arguing on Ch4 that the next few weeks were dangerous for the world as the president facing unavoidable defeat might try to drag us all down with him.
Well, that is a bit of a worry. Which is one reason why Pence’s recent actions have been quite suggestive.
There was an order issued by the Secretary of Defense in Nixon’s dog days, when he was very depressed and permanently drunk, that any order to launch nuclear weapons should be double checked with Henry Kissinger. The complicating factor however at the time was that there was no Vice President and Kissinger could hardly invoke the 25th to hand power to Carl Albert.
So hopefully before we get to that stage Pence would have acted.
The safety of the world potentially resting on Mike Pence is admittedly disturbing, but it would only be for a short while.
Wider point: the safety of the world resting on any one person is always disturbing. Trump, in his unabashed lunacy, has shone a light on something that some of us have long feared: we are one mini-stroke, one psychotic break, one overwrought anxiety-fuelled misjudgement away from apocalypse, every single hour of every single day.
Lots of references to "this" going to the Supreme Court floating around today. Can someone enlighten me what "this" (i.e. what specific issue) the SC will be asked to rule upon. In 2000 it was the validity or otherwise of a couple of hundred votes. Here...what? What relief could be given?
Agreed it's a lot of tosh. Hanging chads was an actual 'thing.' "This," whatever that may be, isn't.
Lots of references to "this" going to the Supreme Court floating around today. Can someone enlighten me what "this" (i.e. what specific issue) the SC will be asked to rule upon. In 2000 it was the validity or otherwise of a couple of hundred votes. Here...what? What relief could be given?
Agreed. The problem is that it is difficult to see what issue is likely to swing the election in any one State for Trump. So, for example, if they were asked to rule that ballots postmarked on or before the election day but received afterwards were invalid where might that swing? Possibly Georgia. So he still loses. Trump would need to overturn 4 States. Its just not possible.
Georgia already has that rule IIRC. The only place that he has a hope of that claim is in PA where it was brought in as a measure to counter the DeJoy USPS ratfuck. Even then, counties are reporting a minuscule number because there was a big state media campaign to convince people to come into the polls if they hadn’t posted their ballots by Nov. Trump can’t win through the courts because there’s nothing TO win.
I wonder how we'll look back on these few days in a year or so?
I suppose it depends on whether we are watching President Harris at Pride or cracking each other's skulls open for dented tins of cat food among the irradiated rubble. It could go either way at this point.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
If AOC runs in 2024 she will have been 35 for less than a month on the day of the election. I'm sure her time will come but it won't be until 2028 or even 2032
I don't think her time will come at the Presidential level. Her favourability ratings are well underwater. I know the theory is she's heir to Bernie, but Bernie never got the nomination and although she has more youth appeal in a way, she has a problem with Bernie Bros (which are very much a real and somethat unpleasant thing) and rest-belt radicals. And that's before the bigger problem of winning a Presidential election where Republicans and non-aligned also get a vote.
She's a very interesting political figure, and an influential one. I'm just unconvinced of her route to the top job.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Present Continuous tense.
It is dead. In the sense that it is going through its death-throes. All you are listening to now is the death rattle.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
I agree, Trump himself may be dragged kicking and screaming from the WH eventually, but he brought more votes than any other R could have dreamed of getting, a huge swathe of those votes were because of Trump himself and Trumpism. It's because of Trump the Rs still have the Senate and improved in the House. I see Trumpism as something that is far from dead.
Lots of references to "this" going to the Supreme Court floating around today. Can someone enlighten me what "this" (i.e. what specific issue) the SC will be asked to rule upon. In 2000 it was the validity or otherwise of a couple of hundred votes. Here...what? What relief could be given?
Agreed. The problem is that it is difficult to see what issue is likely to swing the election in any one State for Trump. So, for example, if they were asked to rule that ballots postmarked on or before the election day but received afterwards were invalid where might that swing? Possibly Georgia. So he still loses. Trump would need to overturn 4 States. Its just not possible.
Georgia already has that rule IIRC. The only place that he has a hope of that claim is in PA where it was brought in as a measure to counter the DeJoy USPS ratfuck. Even then, counties are reporting a minuscule number because there was a big state media campaign to convince people to come into the polls if they hadn’t posted their ballots by Nov. Trump can’t win through the courts because there’s nothing TO win.
My understanding in Georgia is that they are counting them but keeping them separate in case a court rules they are invalid. So if Biden wins without them there is no issue to go to court on.
Although Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has already said there will be a recount, can the networks call it for Biden? He's up 7,500 votes with 98% counted so no matter how many times they recount the vote he ain't losing it.
To be fair you have a shot of finding a systematic error in a recount. So on the recount you might find a missing 50,000 votes.
But after that no, you are right, with this margin you are not overturning it.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
If AOC runs in 2024 she will have been 35 for less than a month on the day of the election. I'm sure her time will come but it won't be until 2028 or even 2032
I don't think her time will come at the Presidential level. Her favourability ratings are well underwater. I know the theory is she's heir to Bernie, but Bernie never got the nomination and although she has more youth appeal in a way, she has a problem with Bernie Bros (which are very much a real and somethat unpleasant thing) and rest-belt radicals. And that's before the bigger problem of winning a Presidential election where Republicans and non-aligned also get a vote.
She's a very interesting political figure, and an influential one. I'm just unconvinced of her route to the top job.
The Democrats need to find someone with the appeal of Bernie in ex-industrial areas, the midwest, and elsewhere, in the future, I would say, otherwise they're in trouble. Biden also managed this.
Perhaps they need some sort of ticket combining AOC with someone with a more immediate appeal to an older, more white-working class constituency, and to even publicly work through and debate the contradictions. Work through and neutralise the culture war.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
Obama has once in a generation charisma and gravitas ahead of his years. Not something easily repeated. Presenting yourself as Obama will only highlight the gaps. AOC is a polarising figure.
Everyone outside the US loved Obama; at home, not so much.
Although Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has already said there will be a recount, can the networks call it for Biden? He's up 7,500 votes with 98% counted so no matter how many times they recount the vote he ain't losing it.
They could but likely wait until all counties have almost exhausted their numbers and Biden is viably outside a Trump comeback.The latter is of course unlikely as the remaining vote is Biden heavy and his present lead is outside the normal flip range in a recount.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
I agree, Trump himself may be dragged kicking and screaming from the WH eventually, but he brought more votes than any other R could have dreamed of getting, a huge swathe of those votes were because of Trump himself and Trumpism. It's because of Trump the Rs still have the Senate and improved in the House. I see Trumpism as something that is far from dead.
Except he didn't. He underperformed the Republican Senators, sometimes by wide margins.
Trump was the liability on the ticket.
p.s. and for the umpteenth time people need to stop using the raw vote numbers. It's a fatuous argument. The population of the US is growing. There are 100 million more voters now than 1960 and Kanye West polled more than George Washington.
I don’t think any of the networks will call the race in the middle of the night. They’ll wait until at least 1000hrs Eastern I think - which is 1500 here.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Whether you mean Trumpism in general or in particular is a whole debate in itself.
Popular demagoguery is as old as prostitution. I am sure Mr Dancer can supply a few appropriate comparisons.
Whether the specific features of Trump's style and policy (such as it is) endures in the US without him is an open question.
I don’t think any of the networks will call the race in the middle of the night. They’ll wait until at least 1000hrs Eastern I think - which is 1500 here.
Very good point. They are media outlets, after all, and want the attention. In the UK with breakfast TV and the Today programme, you'd go a little earlier, even at the weekend.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
AOC has that genuine coolness that is impossible to fake. I have 20 year old British students who know next to zero about US politics other than that they hate Trump and like AOC (dancing video, etc.) so I imagine the effect she could have on younger voters in the US to be quite powerful.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
Obama has once in a generation charisma and gravitas ahead of his years. Not something easily repeated. Presenting yourself as Obama will only highlight the gaps. AOC is a polarising figure.
Everyone outside the US loved Obama; at home, not so much.
""The one I found cold was Obama, and this is what a lot of other photographers said.
"Every one of them (except Obama) wanted to know a little bit about you, although they don't care at least they did want to know.
"Like fishing in Scotland, Nixon was interested that my father did a column in a magazine on trout fishing, you know. They also showed that you're not just some button pusher, that you might have done some interesting things because here you are with me the biggest man in the world.
"Every one of them invited me either for lunch or breakfast, Obama never even suggested coffee for me and my assistant."
That tallies with what everyone on the inside has said. The reason he got nothing done wasn't simply that the Senate was against him, it was that he lacked the charisma to win over moderates on the other side. He didn't have the right charm skills.
I thought it was quite telling when he shot that 3-pointer the other day that he shouted loudly twice, 'that's what I do.' A bizarre self-focused response.
p.s. I think people get misty-eyed because he was the first African American President. That doesn't make him any good per se, or even a charismatic person.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
I agree, Trump himself may be dragged kicking and screaming from the WH eventually, but he brought more votes than any other R could have dreamed of getting, a huge swathe of those votes were because of Trump himself and Trumpism. It's because of Trump the Rs still have the Senate and improved in the House. I see Trumpism as something that is far from dead.
Sure, there will still be purchasers of snake oil, but without the charismatic showman it doesn't work anymore. Trump doesn't campaign for anyone else.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Whether you mean Trumpism in general or in particular is a whole debate in itself.
Popular demagoguery is as old as prostitution. I am sure Mr Dancer can supply a few appropriate comparisons.
Whether the specific features of Trump's style and policy (such as it is) endures in the US without him is an open question.
Agree with this.
I'd also note how hard it is to run as heir to Trump whilst the man himself lives. You'd clearly be subject to a lot of back seat driving and a lot of "bad tribute act" stuff.
We'll see GOP Congress candidates desperately touting their closeness to Donald and disappearing up his posterior, I am sure. But the more serious figures need to work out a different way forward for themselves and the party.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
I agree, Trump himself may be dragged kicking and screaming from the WH eventually, but he brought more votes than any other R could have dreamed of getting, a huge swathe of those votes were because of Trump himself and Trumpism. It's because of Trump the Rs still have the Senate and improved in the House. I see Trumpism as something that is far from dead.
Except he didn't. He underperformed the Republican Senators, sometimes by wide margins.
Trump was the liability on the ticket.
p.s. and for the umpteenth time people need to stop using the raw vote numbers. It's a fatuous argument. The population of the US is growing. There are 100 million more voters now than 1960 and Kanye West polled more than George Washington.
Until 1824 not all States ran a popular vote, some left it to their own State legislatures to determine.
I agree that 50/1 for Pete B is value. I personally (with health caveat) think Biden will run again unless he and the Dems are confident by 2023 that Harris can win. I'd want better than 4/1 though.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Present Continuous tense.
It is dead. In the sense that it is going through its death-throes. All you are listening to now is the death rattle.
Trumpism is wanting someone who is not from your perceived idea of the global elite (not code) as president.
That is far from dead. Nor of course is it Joe Biden.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
If AOC runs in 2024 she will have been 35 for less than a month on the day of the election. I'm sure her time will come but it won't be until 2028 or even 2032
I don't think her time will come at the Presidential level. Her favourability ratings are well underwater. I know the theory is she's heir to Bernie, but Bernie never got the nomination and although she has more youth appeal in a way, she has a problem with Bernie Bros (which are very much a real and somethat unpleasant thing) and rest-belt radicals. And that's before the bigger problem of winning a Presidential election where Republicans and non-aligned also get a vote.
She's a very interesting political figure, and an influential one. I'm just unconvinced of her route to the top job.
The longer the older generation cling onto power - and in the US especially you can't fault the lack of effort - and ignore the pressures building from beneath, the stronger will come the eventual break.
Lots of references to "this" going to the Supreme Court floating around today. Can someone enlighten me what "this" (i.e. what specific issue) the SC will be asked to rule upon. In 2000 it was the validity or otherwise of a couple of hundred votes. Here...what? What relief could be given?
This from the BBC yesterday is the most specific I've seen, and it's still very vague:
“This election is not over," says campaign lawyer Matt Morgan.
"The false projection of Joe Biden as the winner is based on results in four states that are far from final."
He claims without evidence that ballots in Georgia were "improperly harvested" and that in Pennsylvania election observers were not given "meaningful access" to counting, despite a judge's order allowing them further access yesterday.
Morgan also disputes that Arizona will go to Biden, as several news networks have projected, and claims that "thousands" of ballots were cast improperly in Nevada.
"Biden is relying on these states for his phony claim on the White House, but once the election is final, President Trump will be re-elected,” he concluded.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
AOC has that genuine coolness that is impossible to fake. I have 20 year old British students who know next to zero about US politics other than that they hate Trump and like AOC (dancing video, etc.) so I imagine the effect she could have on younger voters in the US to be quite powerful.
She is great, and I am a fan. Charismatic, idealistic, and very good at cross examination. Her time will come, but not yet.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
If AOC runs in 2024 she will have been 35 for less than a month on the day of the election. I'm sure her time will come but it won't be until 2028 or even 2032
I don't think her time will come at the Presidential level. Her favourability ratings are well underwater. I know the theory is she's heir to Bernie, but Bernie never got the nomination and although she has more youth appeal in a way, she has a problem with Bernie Bros (which are very much a real and somethat unpleasant thing) and rest-belt radicals. And that's before the bigger problem of winning a Presidential election where Republicans and non-aligned also get a vote.
She's a very interesting political figure, and an influential one. I'm just unconvinced of her route to the top job.
NY Senator or some other deep blue state is an obvious path for AOC.
Newt Gingrich, the former Republican Speaker, said: "I'm the angriest I have been in six decades. You have a group of corrupt people who have contempt for the American people trying to steal the presidency."
Telegraph.
Really? Newt is the angriest he has ever been? Wow! That's an 11.
We have found a new form of renewable energy folks, just plug him in.
I was very impressed with Buttegieg but at present I can't see the Democrats passing over Harris given the assumption Biden won't stand again and that she is waiting in the wings. Maybe other women to be the main challengers. Buttegieg 2028.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
Obama has once in a generation charisma and gravitas ahead of his years. Not something easily repeated. Presenting yourself as Obama will only highlight the gaps. AOC is a polarising figure.
Everyone outside the US loved Obama; at home, not so much.
""The one I found cold was Obama, and this is what a lot of other photographers said.
"Every one of them (except Obama) wanted to know a little bit about you, although they don't care at least they did want to know.
"Like fishing in Scotland, Nixon was interested that my father did a column in a magazine on trout fishing, you know. They also showed that you're not just some button pusher, that you might have done some interesting things because here you are with me the biggest man in the world.
"Every one of them invited me either for lunch or breakfast, Obama never even suggested coffee for me and my assistant."
That tallies with what everyone on the inside has said. The reason he got nothing done wasn't simply that the Senate was against him, it was that he lacked the charisma to win over moderates on the other side. He didn't have the right charm skills.
I thought it was quite telling when he shot that 3-pointer the other day that he shouted loudly twice, 'that's what I do.' A bizarre self-focused response.
p.s. I think people get misty-eyed because he was the first African American President. That doesn't make him any good per se, or even a charismatic person.
Biden does have that "common touch" that Obama lacked.
A certain ruthless ambition is necessary in a politician, and both Klobuchar and Harris have it. A fine balance to keep it while not becoming arrogant.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
AOC has that genuine coolness that is impossible to fake. I have 20 year old British students who know next to zero about US politics other than that they hate Trump and like AOC (dancing video, etc.) so I imagine the effect she could have on younger voters in the US to be quite powerful.
She is great, and I am a fan. Charismatic, idealistic, and very good at cross examination. Her time will come, but not yet.
One thing you immediately notice about her is that she's very *quick*. Years apparently sorting out rowdy customers in a bar, and then becoming bar manager , have obviously done their bit in helping her.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
Obama has once in a generation charisma and gravitas ahead of his years. Not something easily repeated. Presenting yourself as Obama will only highlight the gaps. AOC is a polarising figure.
Everyone outside the US loved Obama; at home, not so much.
He won two elections reasonably comfortably, and maintains very high retrospective approval ratings. He did that by having broad appeal.
Sure, domestic electorates see more of the individual policy failings and people part ways from him for various reasons. And there is a chunk of the electorate who were never going to like him for a variety of reasons, some deeply unpleasant.
But I think you're mistaken to downplay the exceptional qualities he had to build the coalition he did.
Morning all, woke up to still no calling of the election, no suprise there. My one big concern is that though I totally understand networks etc want to be fully confident of a call, the longer this drags on the more Trump and his allies can feed into this narrative of fraud, cheating, etc Millions of his followers will each hour be getting a growing sense of injustice, fuelled by Trumps own words and lies The longer this stretches out the deeper the resentment and the more a huge part of the electorate and a volatile part at that will refuse to accept it. Worrying times ahead I feel
Or they might all just get bored with it, accept the result and move on.
That was the impression I got from speaking to my tame Trumpite friend in Florida last nite.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
AOC has that genuine coolness that is impossible to fake. I have 20 year old British students who know next to zero about US politics other than that they hate Trump and like AOC (dancing video, etc.) so I imagine the effect she could have on younger voters in the US to be quite powerful.
She is great, and I am a fan. Charismatic, idealistic, and very good at cross examination. Her time will come, but not yet.
Dear Marge....I don't want to sound ignorant particularly in this esteemed company but I don't know what AOC stands for and having looked through this whole thread I still don't. Please helpl!
I wonder what kind of deal Biden could offer Trump to get a smooth transition. I am sure Trumps ego is searching for some face saving way out of this, Offering some kind of deal might flatter that ego and move thins along in way that is worth it.
Trump won't move on. There is no benefit in holding out an olive branch to Trump, he would just use it to beat the **** out of Biden.
Let justice take its course, at state level if a Federal pardon is in place.
Some interesting tips, but I think it will be Harris.
I think Kamala will be president before the 2024 election, with Grandpa Joe stepping down gracefully. He has stated that he sees himself as a bridge to a new generation, and doesn't seem driven by personal ambition.
I expect Joe to appoint a fairly centrist cabinet, of people not motivated by culture war. There are plenty in the Democrat party, and that will suit his desire for bipartisan working. Bipartisanship will be needed to get things through the Senate, and confrontation minimised. There is a lot of work to do.
The White House is seductive. Presidents get sucked in. If Biden is well and has a chance of winning he will stand again. Look at FDR.
If people can be dictators in their 80s why not president? Itd be hilarious.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
AOC has that genuine coolness that is impossible to fake. I have 20 year old British students who know next to zero about US politics other than that they hate Trump and like AOC (dancing video, etc.) so I imagine the effect she could have on younger voters in the US to be quite powerful.
She is great, and I am a fan. Charismatic, idealistic, and very good at cross examination. Her time will come, but not yet.
Dear Marge....I don't want to sound ignorant particularly in this esteemed company but I don't know what AOC stands for and having looked through this whole thread I still don't. Please helpl!
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
AOC has that genuine coolness that is impossible to fake. I have 20 year old British students who know next to zero about US politics other than that they hate Trump and like AOC (dancing video, etc.) so I imagine the effect she could have on younger voters in the US to be quite powerful.
She is great, and I am a fan. Charismatic, idealistic, and very good at cross examination. Her time will come, but not yet.
Dear Marge....I don't want to sound ignorant particularly in this esteemed company but I don't know what AOC stands for and having looked through this whole thread I still don't. Please helpl!
Member of Congress for NY. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez aka AOC.
Hipper than Chloe Sevigny Instagramming a cup cake.
Dear Marge....I don't want to sound ignorant particularly in this esteemed company but I don't know what AOC stands for and having looked through this whole thread I still don't. Please helpl!
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Present Continuous tense.
It is dead. In the sense that it is going through its death-throes. All you are listening to now is the death rattle.
Trumpism is wanting someone who is not from your perceived idea of the global elite (not code) as president.
That is far from dead. Nor of course is it Joe Biden.
But to front Trumpism needs a very subtle balance of qualities. You need to be global elite (to get anywhere near a shot, you need to be global elite.) But you need to be able to rage against the global elite. You need to be able to read a room, but not read yourself. You need to be smart enough to point out the problems and sketch out your answer, and dumb enough to ignore the absurdity of your solution. Doublethink, as Orwell put it. Fortunately, doublethink is difficult and therefore rare. Trump has it, Johnson almost has it. But not many do.
Lots of references to "this" going to the Supreme Court floating around today. Can someone enlighten me what "this" (i.e. what specific issue) the SC will be asked to rule upon. In 2000 it was the validity or otherwise of a couple of hundred votes. Here...what? What relief could be given?
Agreed. The problem is that it is difficult to see what issue is likely to swing the election in any one State for Trump. So, for example, if they were asked to rule that ballots postmarked on or before the election day but received afterwards were invalid where might that swing? Possibly Georgia. So he still loses. Trump would need to overturn 4 States. Its just not possible.
It's about building his narrative. If he can win just one case, and with so many it's not impossible at least one has merit even if its minor, then its fuel to say its all corrupt. Which will be said anyway, but not as many may go along with it.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Trumpism is nothing but Trump and the question now is - can he keep the spell on his base once the trappings of the presidency are stripped away.
I think not but I can't say I'm too sure about it.
Morning all, woke up to still no calling of the election, no suprise there. My one big concern is that though I totally understand networks etc want to be fully confident of a call, the longer this drags on the more Trump and his allies can feed into this narrative of fraud, cheating, etc Millions of his followers will each hour be getting a growing sense of injustice, fuelled by Trumps own words and lies The longer this stretches out the deeper the resentment and the more a huge part of the electorate and a volatile part at that will refuse to accept it. Worrying times ahead I feel
Or they might all just get bored with it, accept the result and move on.
That was the impression I got from speaking to my tame Trumpite friend in Florida last nite.
Some will, some won’t. In what proportions that might be is anyone’s guess.
Trump won’t. I posted this on the last thread, and it seems the most plausible account of his motives to me.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/trumps-forever-campaign-is-just-getting-started/617021/ ... Again, this is a carefully planned strategy, not a temper tantrum, and it may have several stages. The first could take the form of a Hail Mary pass, a brazen and illegal attempt to stay in office. As my colleague Barton Gellman has written, both the rhetoric and the flurry of ridiculous lawsuits are intended to create a misleading impression of electoral fraud so deep that some Republican state legislators could even be tempted to ignore the ballots and simply appoint an Electoral College delegation to vote for Trump. The head of the Pennsylvania Republican Party mentioned this as one of his “options,” although the Republican majority leader of the state Senate explicitly shot that idea down.
But even if Trump’s Hail Mary pass quickly fizzles, even if his attempt to stay in the White House is drowned out by the reality of the vote count and a tsunami of “Biden won” headlines, that doesn’t mean Trump will admit that the election was fair—ever. Even if Trump is forced to make a grudging concession speech, even if Biden is sworn in as president on January 20, even if the Trump family is forced to pack its Louis Vuitton suitcases and flee to Mar-a-Lago, it is in Trump’s interest, and a part of the Republican Party’s interest, to maintain the fiction that the election was stolen. That’s because the same base, the base that distrusts American democracy, could still be extremely useful to Trump, as well as to the Republican Party, in years to come....
I was very impressed with Buttegieg but at present I can't see the Democrats passing over Harris given the assumption Biden won't stand again and that she is waiting in the wings. Maybe other women to be the main challengers. Buttegieg 2028.
That's my view too, but he could well be a good trading bet at 50-1. Agree with David's assessment of the GOP side too.
Will GOP voters calm down as Peter the Punter reckons? In the sense of not attempting to challenge the result physically, yes. The demos are sparsely-attended and fizzling out. But I do know otherwise normal Trump supporters who are convinced he was robbed. A lasting sense of grievance would be understandable if you accept that premise, but I'm not sure where it takes them. Choosing Donald Trump jr.? Joining a militia? Opting out and never voting again? The first seems the most likely.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
Obama has once in a generation charisma and gravitas ahead of his years. Not something easily repeated. Presenting yourself as Obama will only highlight the gaps. AOC is a polarising figure.
Everyone outside the US loved Obama; at home, not so much.
""The one I found cold was Obama, and this is what a lot of other photographers said.
"Every one of them (except Obama) wanted to know a little bit about you, although they don't care at least they did want to know.
"Like fishing in Scotland, Nixon was interested that my father did a column in a magazine on trout fishing, you know. They also showed that you're not just some button pusher, that you might have done some interesting things because here you are with me the biggest man in the world.
"Every one of them invited me either for lunch or breakfast, Obama never even suggested coffee for me and my assistant."
That tallies with what everyone on the inside has said. The reason he got nothing done wasn't simply that the Senate was against him, it was that he lacked the charisma to win over moderates on the other side. He didn't have the right charm skills.
I thought it was quite telling when he shot that 3-pointer the other day that he shouted loudly twice, 'that's what I do.' A bizarre self-focused response.
p.s. I think people get misty-eyed because he was the first African American President. That doesn't make him any good per se, or even a charismatic person.
I'm not sure you're correctly defining "charisma".
Charisma isn't about being liked by photographers, or being warm in a one-to-one chat. It's about being a compelling figure who draws the attention and owns the room (whether the room you're in or the room where you're on the TV).
Obama (and indeed Trump) have that in abundance. Biden is quite possibly a better empath, but that's a totally different thing - he doesn't own the room.
And it's a really unusual skill to have in combination with the other political skills (being an effective networker/operator, judging the mood, getting big decisions right).
You're also very wrong that Obama got nothing done. Obamacare was a major achievement (controversial but major) and the stimulus was very significant early in his term. He was a lame duck towards the end of his second term, but that's generally true of second term Presidents approaching the end.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Present Continuous tense.
It is dead. In the sense that it is going through its death-throes. All you are listening to now is the death rattle.
Dilemma. I just noticed betfair are offering me a 1/3rd cashout on my 14/1 Rishi Sunak next Cons leader bet.
I've made mistakes before now not cashing out. And I'm not convinced Rishi's going to come out of this covid-19 saga unscathed.
Any thoughts gratefully received.
The more free money he hands out the more he retains his popularity.
In the longer term when the economy craters he will find himself in much warmer water.
As a student of Sunak's rise, he does seem to have made some quite elementary errors. I am not sure furlough was the best way forward. EOTHO always looked like an odd idea under the circumstances.
He does however seem Teflon coated, for the moment at least.
Dear Marge....I don't want to sound ignorant particularly in this esteemed company but I don't know what AOC stands for and having looked through this whole thread I still don't. Please helpl!
I wonder what kind of deal Biden could offer Trump to get a smooth transition. I am sure Trumps ego is searching for some face saving way out of this, Offering some kind of deal might flatter that ego and move thins along in way that is worth it.
Trump won't move on. There is no benefit in holding out an olive branch to Trump, he would just use it to beat the **** out of Biden.
Let justice take its course, at state level if a Federal pardon is in place.
The state processes will resolve this if necessary, the pieces are already moving into place as the trappings of president move to Biden. The secret service will have a protocol worked out to bring it to a conclusion.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
Obama has once in a generation charisma and gravitas ahead of his years. Not something easily repeated. Presenting yourself as Obama will only highlight the gaps. AOC is a polarising figure.
Everyone outside the US loved Obama; at home, not so much.
He won two elections reasonably comfortably, and maintains very high retrospective approval ratings. He did that by having broad appeal.
Sure, domestic electorates see more of the individual policy failings and people part ways from him for various reasons. And there is a chunk of the electorate who were never going to like him for a variety of reasons, some deeply unpleasant.
But I think you're mistaken to downplay the exceptional qualities he had to build the coalition he did.
I think Obama is "cool" in both a positive and negative sense.
He is presidential, articulate and appealing. But he also appears to be self-centred and poor on personal relationships so couldn't "reach across the aisle".
Biden is presidential and appealing but inarticulate. He is excellent on reaching across the aisle.
I think this will be a more productive presidency that Obama's but facing much bigger challenges of course.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
Obama has once in a generation charisma and gravitas ahead of his years. Not something easily repeated. Presenting yourself as Obama will only highlight the gaps. AOC is a polarising figure.
Everyone outside the US loved Obama; at home, not so much.
""The one I found cold was Obama, and this is what a lot of other photographers said.
"Every one of them (except Obama) wanted to know a little bit about you, although they don't care at least they did want to know.
"Like fishing in Scotland, Nixon was interested that my father did a column in a magazine on trout fishing, you know. They also showed that you're not just some button pusher, that you might have done some interesting things because here you are with me the biggest man in the world.
"Every one of them invited me either for lunch or breakfast, Obama never even suggested coffee for me and my assistant."
That tallies with what everyone on the inside has said. The reason he got nothing done wasn't simply that the Senate was against him, it was that he lacked the charisma to win over moderates on the other side. He didn't have the right charm skills.
I thought it was quite telling when he shot that 3-pointer the other day that he shouted loudly twice, 'that's what I do.' A bizarre self-focused response.
p.s. I think people get misty-eyed because he was the first African American President. That doesn't make him any good per se, or even a charismatic person.
I'm not sure you're correctly defining "charisma".
Charisma isn't about being liked by photographers, or being warm in a one-to-one chat. It's about being a compelling figure who draws the attention and owns the room (whether the room you're in or the room where you're on the TV).
Obama (and indeed Trump) have that in abundance. Biden is quite possibly a better empath, but that's a totally different thing - he doesn't own the room.
And it's a really unusual skill to have in combination with the other political skills (being an effective networker/operator, judging the mood, getting big decisions right).
You're also very wrong that Obama got nothing done. Obamacare was a major achievement (controversial but major) and the stimulus was very significant early in his term. He was a lame duck towards the end of his second term, but that's generally true of second term Presidents approaching the end.
I think you define it well, as some object when someone like Boris or God forbid Trump is described as charismatic because they don't like them. But being liked can be part of it, but not the whole.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Trumpism is nothing but Trump and the question now is - can he keep the spell on his base once the trappings of the presidency are stripped away.
I think not but I can't say I'm too sure about it.
The earlier question Trumpism can exist beyond him is a really complicated one, I think. Trumpism is clearly partly just Trump's force of personality, as well as his relishing of shock - but it's also many of the ideological accoutrements he's picked up along the way, many of which he didn't even hold 20 years ago. That takes us back to Fox News and the wobbly, post-Reaganite coalition of the devout, nationalistic and libertarian discussed yesterday, and it's not going away anytime soon, I wouldn't say.
I don't think her time will come at the Presidential level. Her favourability ratings are well underwater. I know the theory is she's heir to Bernie, but Bernie never got the nomination and although she has more youth appeal in a way, she has a problem with Bernie Bros (which are very much a real and somethat unpleasant thing) and rest-belt radicals. And that's before the bigger problem of winning a Presidential election where Republicans and non-aligned also get a vote.
She's a very interesting political figure, and an influential one. I'm just unconvinced of her route to the top job.
Her best bet is probably initially as a VP candidate, bringing youth and enthusiasm to the ticket, and becoming a more mainstream figure. Yes, the GOP would play the "a socialist is just a heartbeat away from the Presidency" line, but unless the top name is obviously ill I'm not sure that cuts through - they tried it with Harris, to no obvious effect.
Dilemma. I just noticed betfair are offering me a 1/3rd cashout on my 14/1 Rishi Sunak next Cons leader bet.
I've made mistakes before now not cashing out. And I'm not convinced Rishi's going to come out of this covid-19 saga unscathed.
Any thoughts gratefully received.
The more free money he hands out the more he retains his popularity.
In the longer term when the economy craters he will find himself in much warmer water.
As a student of Sunak's rise, he does seem to have made some quite elementary errors. I am not sure furlough was the best way forward. EOTHO always looked like an odd idea under the circumstances.
He does however seem Teflon coated, for the moment at least.
Thanks for this. It comes down too to that point I often miss, that it's the tory members who choose their leader not the public. His anti-lockdown stance is popular.
But it's quite tempting to cash out tbh. There are so many unpredictables at the moment.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
AOC has that genuine coolness that is impossible to fake. I have 20 year old British students who know next to zero about US politics other than that they hate Trump and like AOC (dancing video, etc.) so I imagine the effect she could have on younger voters in the US to be quite powerful.
She is great, and I am a fan. Charismatic, idealistic, and very good at cross examination. Her time will come, but not yet.
Dear Marge....I don't want to sound ignorant particularly in this esteemed company but I don't know what AOC stands for and having looked through this whole thread I still don't. Please helpl!
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Trumpism is nothing but Trump and the question now is - can he keep the spell on his base once the trappings of the presidency are stripped away.
I think not but I can't say I'm too sure about it.
The trappings stripped away to an orange jumpsuit is the only way to go.
I understand the idea of martyrdom, but as Trump's attorneys try to defend industrial scale "financial irregularities" in the full media spotlight over the next years, the notion that only Trump and his acolytes can save the USA will drift away like an unpleasant odour.
Not likely to make any difference to a Biden win in PA, but it's a bad look for Pennsylvania's Democrats to promise one thing to the Supreme Court and then renege on it.
I don't think her time will come at the Presidential level. Her favourability ratings are well underwater. I know the theory is she's heir to Bernie, but Bernie never got the nomination and although she has more youth appeal in a way, she has a problem with Bernie Bros (which are very much a real and somethat unpleasant thing) and rest-belt radicals. And that's before the bigger problem of winning a Presidential election where Republicans and non-aligned also get a vote.
She's a very interesting political figure, and an influential one. I'm just unconvinced of her route to the top job.
Her best bet is probably initially as a VP candidate, bringing youth and enthusiasm to the ticket, and becoming a more mainstream figure. Yes, the GOP would play the "a socialist is just a heartbeat away from the Presidency" line, but unless the top name is obviously ill I'm not sure that cuts through - they tried it with Harris, to no obvious effect.
She might well run for a Senate seat first. She’s already said plainly that she doesn’t see her future in the House.
I don't think her time will come at the Presidential level. Her favourability ratings are well underwater. I know the theory is she's heir to Bernie, but Bernie never got the nomination and although she has more youth appeal in a way, she has a problem with Bernie Bros (which are very much a real and somethat unpleasant thing) and rest-belt radicals. And that's before the bigger problem of winning a Presidential election where Republicans and non-aligned also get a vote.
She's a very interesting political figure, and an influential one. I'm just unconvinced of her route to the top job.
Her best bet is probably initially as a VP candidate, bringing youth and enthusiasm to the ticket, and becoming a more mainstream figure. Yes, the GOP would play the "a socialist is just a heartbeat away from the Presidency" line, but unless the top name is obviously ill I'm not sure that cuts through - they tried it with Harris, to no obvious effect.
With Harris, though, it was transparently untrue that a socialist would be a heartbeat from the Presidency. Harris is a well-known, moderate Democrat. The debate when she was chosen was whether Biden should balance the ticket by reaching out to the left, and he very firmly decided he would NOT do that.
So it didn't really cut through (except possibly with Cubans?) because it wasn't true. But with AOC it would be absolutely true.
I agree that's probably her best route, though - she will need at some point to pivot and join the establishment without losing her radical appeal, which is a difficult trick.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Present Continuous tense.
It is dead. In the sense that it is going through its death-throes. All you are listening to now is the death rattle.
Trumpism is dead = Simple Present
Trumpism is dying = Present Continuous
It appears to be alive and kicking. The Republican party has the choice of killing it and moving on, but for whatever reason (fear ?), they appear to have rejected it.
Notable is Cruz (along with many, many others), a man with no reason to love Trump, regurgitating his self serving lies. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/06/the-election-that-broke-the-republican-party-434797 ‘I am angry, and I think the American people are angry,” Cruz told Hannity, his voice wrung with outrage. “By throwing the observers out, by clouding the vote-counting in a shroud of darkness, they are setting the stage to potentially steal an election not just from the president, but from the over 60 million people across this country who voted for him.” One might assume that an Ivy League-educated lawyer like Cruz — someone who argued cases before the Supreme Court, someone who, as he reminded Hannity on Thursday night, worked on the Bush v. Gore case in 2000 — would make sure his assertions were bulletproof before sharing them with millions of viewers. But that assumption would be wrong.
This doesn’t end once Biden is in the White House.
I'd agree with those that sugget Buttegieg needs to prove himself a bit in a job, and I don't think it need be an elected one so showing competence and drive for Biden or some prominent role gets the job done. AOC I'd think there's a non-zero chance that she trips up as perhaps other ambitious Democrats in Congress dislike her high profile compared to them, and her jumping the queue as it were by trying to become prominent before she has gray in her hair.
The US is learning that patience is a virtue. Quite a lesson after decades of rolling news....
Rolling news has a lot to answer for, but the inability of the authorities in many states to declare an election result four days after the vote is really not good.
On topic 50/1 isn't bad but I don't understand how he gets past Kamala. To get experience he has to be in the administration, so he can't run *against* the administration, which puts him in the same lane as Kamala. But she's the next in line, and she brings a gender that feels they're owed after Hillary, so where's the opening?
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
AOC has real charisma, but a bit too fresh out of the box still.
That's what they said about Obama, I think you can turn it into an asset if you're offering a change from something old and dull.
Obama has once in a generation charisma and gravitas ahead of his years. Not something easily repeated. Presenting yourself as Obama will only highlight the gaps. AOC is a polarising figure.
Everyone outside the US loved Obama; at home, not so much.
""The one I found cold was Obama, and this is what a lot of other photographers said.
"Every one of them (except Obama) wanted to know a little bit about you, although they don't care at least they did want to know.
"Like fishing in Scotland, Nixon was interested that my father did a column in a magazine on trout fishing, you know. They also showed that you're not just some button pusher, that you might have done some interesting things because here you are with me the biggest man in the world.
"Every one of them invited me either for lunch or breakfast, Obama never even suggested coffee for me and my assistant."
That tallies with what everyone on the inside has said. The reason he got nothing done wasn't simply that the Senate was against him, it was that he lacked the charisma to win over moderates on the other side. He didn't have the right charm skills.
I thought it was quite telling when he shot that 3-pointer the other day that he shouted loudly twice, 'that's what I do.' A bizarre self-focused response.
p.s. I think people get misty-eyed because he was the first African American President. That doesn't make him any good per se, or even a charismatic person.
Harry Benson should keep his gob shut. I've photographed and filmed lots of well known people for ads and one thing you avoid is making your potted opinion of them known. Sometimes they feel like talking sometimes they don't. Some personalities gel some don't. Some years ago one of the royals was going out with a model and one of the rags offered serious money to any who would supply a topless photo of her -which all models have had taken including her-and to everyone's credit -including mine -none supplied one.
Newt Gingrich, the former Republican Speaker, said: "I'm the angriest I have been in six decades. You have a group of corrupt people who have contempt for the American people trying to steal the presidency."
Telegraph.
Really? Newt is the angriest he has ever been? Wow! That's an 11.
We have found a new form of renewable energy folks, just plug him in.
Well, can’t Newt just have a word with the people around Trump and get them to stop?
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Present Continuous tense.
It is dead. In the sense that it is going through its death-throes. All you are listening to now is the death rattle.
Trumpism is dead = Simple Present
Trumpism is dying = Present Continuous
It appears to be alive and kicking. The Republican party has the choice of killing it and moving on, but for whatever reason (fear ?), they appear to have rejected it.
Notable is Cruz (along with many, many others), a man with no reason to love Trump, regurgitating his self serving lies. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/06/the-election-that-broke-the-republican-party-434797 ‘I am angry, and I think the American people are angry,” Cruz told Hannity, his voice wrung with outrage. “By throwing the observers out, by clouding the vote-counting in a shroud of darkness, they are setting the stage to potentially steal an election not just from the president, but from the over 60 million people across this country who voted for him.” One might assume that an Ivy League-educated lawyer like Cruz — someone who argued cases before the Supreme Court, someone who, as he reminded Hannity on Thursday night, worked on the Bush v. Gore case in 2000 — would make sure his assertions were bulletproof before sharing them with millions of viewers. But that assumption would be wrong.
This doesn’t end once Biden is in the White House.
He's pathetic. Particularly when it is in states run by Republicans they cannot believe it, and they just don't need to come out to bat for Trump now, and he's still doing it.
Just say you support the court cases, then accept the result if they don't succeed - that way you showed you backed Trump but don't make yourself look completely like his b*tch.
Mad idea. For unity’s sake, I wonder could Biden appoint a republican or Trump supporter in his white house? It might be one way to bridge the divide. Could he even ask Ivanka to do something?
Ivanka! Are you serious?
Ivanka would surely be an improvement on a wanker.
Biden will need some form of political and economic approach to bridge the schism. Roping in some Trump people is one way to do it.
Trumpism is dead. Someone else needs to pick up the mantle of the nakedly greedy and self serving.
Trumpism is not dead. Sorry.
Present Continuous tense.
It is dead. In the sense that it is going through its death-throes. All you are listening to now is the death rattle.
Trumpism is dead = Simple Present
Trumpism is dying = Present Continuous
It appears to be alive and kicking. The Republican party has the choice of killing it and moving on, but for whatever reason (fear ?), they appear to have rejected it.
Notable is Cruz (along with many, many others), a man with no reason to love Trump, regurgitating his self serving lies. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/06/the-election-that-broke-the-republican-party-434797 ‘I am angry, and I think the American people are angry,” Cruz told Hannity, his voice wrung with outrage. “By throwing the observers out, by clouding the vote-counting in a shroud of darkness, they are setting the stage to potentially steal an election not just from the president, but from the over 60 million people across this country who voted for him.” One might assume that an Ivy League-educated lawyer like Cruz — someone who argued cases before the Supreme Court, someone who, as he reminded Hannity on Thursday night, worked on the Bush v. Gore case in 2000 — would make sure his assertions were bulletproof before sharing them with millions of viewers. But that assumption would be wrong.
This doesn’t end once Biden is in the White House.
He's pathetic. Particularly when it is in states run by Republicans they cannot believe it, and they just don't need to come out to bat for Trump now, and he's still doing it.
Just say you support the court cases, then accept the result if they don't succeed - that way you showed you backed Trump but don't make yourself look completely like his b*tch.
I saw that on Fox. It really was astonishingly incoherent by both of them. Sometimes observers were not being allowed in at all. Others they were 100 feet away. As you say the fact that many of these states had republican administrations was ignored. It was all these dens of iniquity and, even worse, Democrats, otherwise known as cities.
I was disappointed in Cruz but Hannity really needs to be eased out of Fox, he is a total embarrassment.
This is beginning to have something of a Groundhog Day feeling to it. After a long sleep I'm half-expecting to wake up to a newspaper next Thursday that says "Biden almost within reach ! Final votes to be counted".
I'd agree with those that sugget Buttegieg needs to prove himself a bit in a job, and I don't think it need be an elected one so showing competence and drive for Biden or some prominent role gets the job done. AOC I'd think there's a non-zero chance that she trips up as perhaps other ambitious Democrats in Congress dislike her high profile compared to them, and her jumping the queue as it were by trying to become prominent before she has gray in her hair.
Totally agree regarding Buttigieg, and suspect he will get a major job from Biden. He had a cracking election for his reputation as Biden's man on Fox - absolutely evicerated every single Fox host, in a calm tone and with a cheeky grin. So his stock with Biden and his team will be extremely high.
He's also very young. 38 is nothing and I've noted below that he'd be 50 after a hypothetical one Biden term AND two Harris terms, which is STILL very young in Presidential terms. The passage of time also makes his sexuality less of an issue - a lot of the groups with whom it's an issue are dying out (not all of them, but no Democrat will make big inroads with the younger homophobes whereas the 70+ ones are "from a different era" and it doesn't necessarily correlate well with where they are on the left/right spectrum).
Comments
Ninety.... Percent....
JUST CALL THE DAMN THING. CALL IT, CALL IT, CALL IT
Ever since Lilyallengate my subconscious is improvising earworms on the lines of "Ooooh I do like to 'ave a wa-ha-hank" sung in a quavery mockney accent. Now yours will too, if you have ever heard a Lily Allen song.
She's a very interesting political figure, and an influential one. I'm just unconvinced of her route to the top job.
It is dead. In the sense that it is going through its death-throes. All you are listening to now is the death rattle.
270 to win.
Then it’s over.
That’s it.
But after that no, you are right, with this margin you are not overturning it.
Perhaps they need some sort of ticket combining AOC with someone with a more immediate appeal to an older, more white-working class constituency, and to even publicly work through and debate the contradictions. Work through and neutralise the culture war.
Trump was the liability on the ticket.
p.s. and for the umpteenth time people need to stop using the raw vote numbers. It's a fatuous argument. The population of the US is growing. There are 100 million more voters now than 1960 and Kanye West polled more than George Washington.
I shall be punting on him again, once BF gets a market up.
Popular demagoguery is as old as prostitution. I am sure Mr Dancer can supply a few appropriate comparisons.
Whether the specific features of Trump's style and policy (such as it is) endures in the US without him is an open question.
""The one I found cold was Obama, and this is what a lot of other photographers said.
"Every one of them (except Obama) wanted to know a little bit about you, although they don't care at least they did want to know.
"Like fishing in Scotland, Nixon was interested that my father did a column in a magazine on trout fishing, you know. They also showed that you're not just some button pusher, that you might have done some interesting things because here you are with me the biggest man in the world.
"Every one of them invited me either for lunch or breakfast, Obama never even suggested coffee for me and my assistant."
That tallies with what everyone on the inside has said. The reason he got nothing done wasn't simply that the Senate was against him, it was that he lacked the charisma to win over moderates on the other side. He didn't have the right charm skills.
I thought it was quite telling when he shot that 3-pointer the other day that he shouted loudly twice, 'that's what I do.' A bizarre self-focused response.
p.s. I think people get misty-eyed because he was the first African American President. That doesn't make him any good per se, or even a charismatic person.
I'd also note how hard it is to run as heir to Trump whilst the man himself lives. You'd clearly be subject to a lot of back seat driving and a lot of "bad tribute act" stuff.
We'll see GOP Congress candidates desperately touting their closeness to Donald and disappearing up his posterior, I am sure. But the more serious figures need to work out a different way forward for themselves and the party.
That is far from dead. Nor of course is it Joe Biden.
“This election is not over," says campaign lawyer Matt Morgan.
"The false projection of Joe Biden as the winner is based on results in four states that are far from final."
He claims without evidence that ballots in Georgia were "improperly harvested" and that in Pennsylvania election observers were not given "meaningful access" to counting, despite a judge's order allowing them further access yesterday.
Morgan also disputes that Arizona will go to Biden, as several news networks have projected, and claims that "thousands" of ballots were cast improperly in Nevada.
"Biden is relying on these states for his phony claim on the White House, but once the election is final, President Trump will be re-elected,” he concluded.
Telegraph.
Really? Newt is the angriest he has ever been? Wow! That's an 11.
We have found a new form of renewable energy folks, just plug him in.
I'm not tempted.
A certain ruthless ambition is necessary in a politician, and both Klobuchar and Harris have it. A fine balance to keep it while not becoming arrogant.
Sure, domestic electorates see more of the individual policy failings and people part ways from him for various reasons. And there is a chunk of the electorate who were never going to like him for a variety of reasons, some deeply unpleasant.
But I think you're mistaken to downplay the exceptional qualities he had to build the coalition he did.
That was the impression I got from speaking to my tame Trumpite friend in Florida last nite.
I've made mistakes before now not cashing out. And I'm not convinced Rishi's going to come out of this covid-19 saga unscathed.
Any thoughts gratefully received.
Let justice take its course, at state level if a Federal pardon is in place.
Of course, that did lead to a rather abrupt reversal in course following the destruction of Greek forces at the Battle of Chaeronea.
Hipper than Chloe Sevigny Instagramming a cup cake.
You need to be global elite (to get anywhere near a shot, you need to be global elite.) But you need to be able to rage against the global elite.
You need to be able to read a room, but not read yourself.
You need to be smart enough to point out the problems and sketch out your answer, and dumb enough to ignore the absurdity of your solution.
Doublethink, as Orwell put it.
Fortunately, doublethink is difficult and therefore rare. Trump has it, Johnson almost has it. But not many do.
I think not but I can't say I'm too sure about it.
In what proportions that might be is anyone’s guess.
Trump won’t. I posted this on the last thread, and it seems the most plausible account of his motives to me.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/trumps-forever-campaign-is-just-getting-started/617021/
... Again, this is a carefully planned strategy, not a temper tantrum, and it may have several stages. The first could take the form of a Hail Mary pass, a brazen and illegal attempt to stay in office. As my colleague Barton Gellman has written, both the rhetoric and the flurry of ridiculous lawsuits are intended to create a misleading impression of electoral fraud so deep that some Republican state legislators could even be tempted to ignore the ballots and simply appoint an Electoral College delegation to vote for Trump. The head of the Pennsylvania Republican Party mentioned this as one of his “options,” although the Republican majority leader of the state Senate explicitly shot that idea down.
But even if Trump’s Hail Mary pass quickly fizzles, even if his attempt to stay in the White House is drowned out by the reality of the vote count and a tsunami of “Biden won” headlines, that doesn’t mean Trump will admit that the election was fair—ever. Even if Trump is forced to make a grudging concession speech, even if Biden is sworn in as president on January 20, even if the Trump family is forced to pack its Louis Vuitton suitcases and flee to Mar-a-Lago, it is in Trump’s interest, and a part of the Republican Party’s interest, to maintain the fiction that the election was stolen. That’s because the same base, the base that distrusts American democracy, could still be extremely useful to Trump, as well as to the Republican Party, in years to come....
Will GOP voters calm down as Peter the Punter reckons? In the sense of not attempting to challenge the result physically, yes. The demos are sparsely-attended and fizzling out. But I do know otherwise normal Trump supporters who are convinced he was robbed. A lasting sense of grievance would be understandable if you accept that premise, but I'm not sure where it takes them. Choosing Donald Trump jr.? Joining a militia? Opting out and never voting again? The first seems the most likely.
Charisma isn't about being liked by photographers, or being warm in a one-to-one chat. It's about being a compelling figure who draws the attention and owns the room (whether the room you're in or the room where you're on the TV).
Obama (and indeed Trump) have that in abundance. Biden is quite possibly a better empath, but that's a totally different thing - he doesn't own the room.
And it's a really unusual skill to have in combination with the other political skills (being an effective networker/operator, judging the mood, getting big decisions right).
You're also very wrong that Obama got nothing done. Obamacare was a major achievement (controversial but major) and the stimulus was very significant early in his term. He was a lame duck towards the end of his second term, but that's generally true of second term Presidents approaching the end.
Trumpism is dying = Present Continuous
In the longer term when the economy craters he will find himself in much warmer water.
As a student of Sunak's rise, he does seem to have made some quite elementary errors. I am not sure furlough was the best way forward. EOTHO always looked like an odd idea under the circumstances.
He does however seem Teflon coated, for the moment at least.
He is presidential, articulate and appealing.
But he also appears to be self-centred and poor on personal relationships so couldn't "reach across the aisle".
Biden is presidential and appealing but inarticulate. He is excellent on reaching across the aisle.
I think this will be a more productive presidency that Obama's but facing much bigger challenges of course.
But it's quite tempting to cash out tbh. There are so many unpredictables at the moment.
https://youtu.be/B1sEEhdEhCQ
I understand the idea of martyrdom, but as Trump's attorneys try to defend industrial scale "financial irregularities" in the full media spotlight over the next years, the notion that only Trump and his acolytes can save the USA will drift away like an unpleasant odour.
Last month I tipped Mayor Pete at 66/1 (and Tom Cotton at 50/1), so I'm glad David and myself are on the same page.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/11/2024-vision-some-66-1-and-50-1-tips-to-start-off-your-sunday/
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/breaking-us-supreme-court-orders-pennsylvania-to-segregate-mail-in-ballots-received-after-8-pm-on-election-day
She’s already said plainly that she doesn’t see her future in the House.
EDIT: Snap! Interesting that we choose the same clip.
So it didn't really cut through (except possibly with Cubans?) because it wasn't true. But with AOC it would be absolutely true.
I agree that's probably her best route, though - she will need at some point to pivot and join the establishment without losing her radical appeal, which is a difficult trick.
The Republican party has the choice of killing it and moving on, but for whatever reason (fear ?), they appear to have rejected it.
Notable is Cruz (along with many, many others), a man with no reason to love Trump, regurgitating his self serving lies.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/06/the-election-that-broke-the-republican-party-434797
‘I am angry, and I think the American people are angry,” Cruz told Hannity, his voice wrung with outrage. “By throwing the observers out, by clouding the vote-counting in a shroud of darkness, they are setting the stage to potentially steal an election not just from the president, but from the over 60 million people across this country who voted for him.”
One might assume that an Ivy League-educated lawyer like Cruz — someone who argued cases before the Supreme Court, someone who, as he reminded Hannity on Thursday night, worked on the Bush v. Gore case in 2000 — would make sure his assertions were bulletproof before sharing them with millions of viewers. But that assumption would be wrong.
This doesn’t end once Biden is in the White House.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1325005258498650113
Just say you support the court cases, then accept the result if they don't succeed - that way you showed you backed Trump but don't make yourself look completely like his b*tch.
I was disappointed in Cruz but Hannity really needs to be eased out of Fox, he is a total embarrassment.
He's also very young. 38 is nothing and I've noted below that he'd be 50 after a hypothetical one Biden term AND two Harris terms, which is STILL very young in Presidential terms. The passage of time also makes his sexuality less of an issue - a lot of the groups with whom it's an issue are dying out (not all of them, but no Democrat will make big inroads with the younger homophobes whereas the 70+ ones are "from a different era" and it doesn't necessarily correlate well with where they are on the left/right spectrum).