Afternoon all ... The truth is the Democrats have a big in-built advantage within the EC and, as 2020 has shown, don't need Texas or Florida to win but if they can secure one or both of those along with Ohio, the Republicans are effectively shut out. ...
Can you explain what you mean by this?
As far as I can work out from my best guess of the results, the tipping point state will end up having a Biden lead of ~2pp, compared to a national vote lead of ~4pp.
That's a pretty large in-built advantage for the Republicans isn't it?
There are 51 elements to the Electoral College - 50 states plus DC.
40 of these are "safe" for either the Democrats or the Republicans - 20 each as it happens.
The safe Democrat states include the populous ones like California, New York, Illinois and the East Coast and between them come to 226 EC votes.
The safe Republican states come to just 125 EC votes as they are all smaller populated states so bring fewer EC votes to the table.
The election is fought over the remaining 187 EC votes in 11 states.
Last time Trump won 10 of those 11 and Clinton only won Nevada despite winning the national poll by 2.1%. That was how vote efficient Trump was.
This time, even though he trails Biden by 2.9% currently (so a swing of just 0.4% from 2016), Trump is looking set to hold only four of the eleven - Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Florida which bring 91 to the table.
Biden looks set to hold Nevada and win Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and perhaps North Carolina so a very small change in national votes has had a fundamental impact on the Electoral College which could well end 306-232, the mirror image of 2016.
In 2004 when Bush beat Kerry by 2.4% (so closer than the 2020 election), he won the EC 286-251. No Republican has won a Presidential vote since and for all everyone talks about how Trump is emulating Carter, it's worth remembering George W Bush only just beat Kerry and no Republican has got above 51% nationally since George HW Bush in 1988.
My point is the Democrats start on 226 and only need 44 to reach 270. If they can convert states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania back to safe seats and perhaps put Texas into the "marginal" column, the task facing any future GOP Presidential candidate is going to be that much harder. As this election has shown, the Democrats can win without Texas and Florida and if Georgia's 16 EC votes are starting to move more into the blue column as well, the Republicans face a huge problem.
Which is why I think this could be a seachange election result in the same way 1980 was when Carter lost, it then took 12 years for the Democrats to win a presidential election again, only doing so in 1992 when Bill Clinton won, the worry for the GOP is they could face the same fate and be out of the White House for the rest of the decade after Trump's defeat
Could well be. No tears from me if it is.
And our WH2020 charity bet. Just remembered it. We did under/over 281 at 50p a point on Biden EC. So settling at the near certain 306, you have lost £12.50.
Sum to go to Mermaids.
Or if that makes you feel queasy because you think like Rowling that they specialize in bullying pre-pubescent children into a sex change, we could go for Shelter, or an org that I'm thinking is bang in line with your staid and crusty Tory identity - the National Trust.
No proof of payment required. I trust you.
I will settle when all the results are in, if confirmed that Biden has won over 281 EC votes as is likely but not certain then I will pay up then but only once all votes are in and any recounts settled from the states adding up to 281 given Biden is currently on only 253 EC votes
Understandable caution, given the size of the sum involved.
"The greatest tragedy in all of this is that the gurus of wokedom have persuaded thousands of idealistic young people who rightly want to change the world into supporting what is actually a deeply reactionary movement. The trans activists can only realise their aim of being able to enter spaces reserved for women by erasing the female sex. Critical race theory remains credible only so long as black and brown people continue to fail. In the end, the woke movement is turning into an echo of the very oppressors it claims to be combating. After all the statues come down, and women’s prisons are opened to all and sundry, the celebrities and social media warriors will move on to the next fashionable cause — and minorities will still be less likely to win the top jobs, and women will still be the victims of violence. The only thing that will have changed is the bitterness of a generation whose idealism was betrayed.
"The greatest tragedy in all of this is that the gurus of wokedom have persuaded thousands of idealistic young people who rightly want to change the world into supporting what is actually a deeply reactionary movement. The trans activists can only realise their aim of being able to enter spaces reserved for women by erasing the female sex. Critical race theory remains credible only so long as black and brown people continue to fail. In the end, the woke movement is turning into an echo of the very oppressors it claims to be combating. After all the statues come down, and women’s prisons are opened to all and sundry, the celebrities and social media warriors will move on to the next fashionable cause — and minorities will still be less likely to win the top jobs, and women will still be the victims of violence. The only thing that will have changed is the bitterness of a generation whose idealism was betrayed.
This isn't far off the mark.....when you think about a lot of the woke identity stuff and start exclusively pigeon holing how races and religions as they all think x, all vote y, it is incredibly racist.
There is quite a close similarity between many of the arguments put forward for "safe spaces" and segregation policies. Racial segregation was often advocated on the basis of protection of minorities.
There are colleges in the US implementing non-white dorms....I mean I thought all those people in the 60s marched for ending exactly that kind of racist bullshit. The woke-ists will argue it is non-white people making a choice, rather than forced to do it, but that doesn't really wash with me. How are you going to break down mistrust, misunderstanding and bring people together, if people start demanding they live separately based upon the colour of their skin.
And how, then, can you uphold a law that bars white people who choose to exclude others from their housing communities?
I think he is very over the top, but I do think that alleged confusion within the police over permissable activities is not always very credible, particularly as if they are going to act or threaten to act in some way they need to be certain of their powers and the rights of others, which means they surely must check. So at best they don't check before acting too often, even if total incident numbers are few.
Erhhh.....For once, Trump did actually tell the truth, he literally said "Four Seasons Total Landscaping" in the tweet. The media read that as Four Seasons Hotel.
Like an excerpt from the American version of The Office. Who would have thought the grand gestures of the Trump presidency would end in such bathos.
However - the unremarkably functional and post-industrial looking location may have some logic to it. I'm on your side in everytown USA, the little man against the media and establishment !
My favourite part is he has to claim it is by a lot, not merely that has won. It couldn't be that it was close and the sneaky buggers managed to steal it, it wasn't even close and they managed it.
21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).
The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928
Also from 538, apparently the "last major drop" of ballots from Maricopa County, Arizona, which currently has 92,000 outstanding, is expected at 4pm GMT.
The New York Times says "Officials there say nearly all of their early ballots will be counted by that point, and only a smaller number of provisional and other ballots will remain."
NYT says 97% reported, which would leave very little outside Maricopa County.
Perhaps Arisona can be called (reliably) in five minutes?
1.) That may be true because most teachers are pretty good at staying away from pupils. 2.) I've been told to work from home anyway (I'm classed as "extremely vulnerable").
Is he not doing this press conference himself then? Is some other poor sod going to have to stand there and claim some massive deep state conspiracy occurred?
Could any of the other Dems in the primaries have won back the rust belt?
Biden’s moderate stance might have irritated the progressive wing of the party but can anyone seriously make an argument that Sanders or Warren would be winning this election .
The world seems just a better place to be today , for us liberals who’ve had nothing but pain for the last 4 years Biden’s win is a huge relief , for ardent Remainers even though the EU debate is over a sense of catharsis today , the anti EU anti international co-operation Trump will be going .
Europe as a whole will be celebrating today. A victory of hope and compassion over the disgusting divisive politics of Trump .
21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).
The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928
This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.
You do know that the census was 10 years ago, right? And current population estimates are therefore, er, an estimate? And an estimate made at about the most distant time from an actual census it is possible to be?
Erhhh.....For once, Trump did actually tell the truth, he literally said "Four Seasons Total Landscaping" in the tweet. The media read that as Four Seasons Hotel.
I believe Trump originally tweeted Four Seasons and then after folk contacted the Four Seasons hotel, deleted it and released the Four Seasons Total Landscaping one.
Does anyone think it was supposed to be the Four Seasons Hotel but someone put the wrong name into a web search?
Or the hotel wasn';t asked first and said no, hence a quick ferret around for something not too obviously a foulup?
That sounds very plausible; it also explains why The Thick Of It is no longer being made: what's the point?
The original twweet was for "Four Seasons" which rather suggests that. But actually onbe of the responses to this tweet is to the effect that the owner is related to a local Republican (I think?).
Erhhh.....For once, Trump did actually tell the truth, he literally said "Four Seasons Total Landscaping" in the tweet. The media read that as Four Seasons Hotel.
I believe Trump originally tweeted Four Seasons and then after folk contacted the Four Seasons hotel, deleted it and released the Four Seasons Total Landscaping one.
Perhaps. In the crazy world of Trump, who knows. But worth pointing out, that he owns a golf course in Philadelphia, why wouldn't he just do it from there if it was just about having a venue?
Is he not doing this press conference himself then? Is some other poor sod going to have to stand there and claim some massive deep state conspiracy occurred?
IIRC the original tweet said "Lawyers" (yes, not blokes with cement mixers).
Anyway, does anyone think Russia interfered in this election, like they did in 2016?
DNI Ratcliffe and FBI Director Wray have already stated that Russia has been interfering. You would have to be a fool to dismiss their opinion on this matter, as there really are no other people better positioned to know about such things.
21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).
The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928
This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.
You do know that the census was 10 years ago, right? And current population estimates are therefore, er, an estimate? And an estimate made at about the most distant time from an actual census it is possible to be?
I was wondering this. There was a census due this year... did it happen?
Erhhh.....For once, Trump did actually tell the truth, he literally said "Four Seasons Total Landscaping" in the tweet. The media read that as Four Seasons Hotel.
I believe Trump originally tweeted Four Seasons and then after folk contacted the Four Seasons hotel, deleted it and released the Four Seasons Total Landscaping one.
Perhaps. In the crazy world of Trump, who knows. But worth pointing out, that he owns a golf course in Philadelphia, why wouldn't he just do it from there if it was just about having a venue?
Well, we'll know in about half-an-hour. How far is the garden centre from the hotel?
Question about electoral college skew a while ago. It turns out that the skew had previously favoured Democrats (since 1996) but it seems this is largely because they won the most popular votes in that time, so it is a similar effect to the so-called cube rule under FPTP. The issue in 2016-20 is that California and Texas moved toward Democrats but not in a way that was useful for electoral votes, so the popular vote would now be more useful to Democrats.
I wish people would make up their minds whether all the stuff beforehand is just flappery as prelude to deal, or if the gov was really aiming for no deal before changing their minds late on. It makes a big difference on the specifics of any criticism.
21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).
The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928
This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.
You do know that the census was 10 years ago, right? And current population estimates are therefore, er, an estimate? And an estimate made at about the most distant time from an actual census it is possible to be?
I was wondering this. There was a census due this year... did it happen?
Yes, census day was in April but efforts to find non-responders carried on till last month. The census is mandated by the Constitution.
If anyone is following the discussion about 2016 Michigan I advise to actually read the articles that MrEd and DAlexander are linking to, which make clear:
1. The issue was the total votes according to the machines being different (usually more) to the numbers of voters coming to vote as tallied by humans - NOT there being more votes than registered voters as repeatedly implied. 2. The articles blame human error for the differences. 3. The machines registered a few hundred "extra" votes. Not enough to make any difference. 4. Republicans were running the election in Michigan
Yet it somehow justifies what Trump and Republicans are doing now!
Lockdown should continue in Merthyr Tydfil "for weeks, even months", according to a top doctor. Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board consultant Dr Dai Samuel questioned whether current measures were working.
It is a fall in infection rates by 100 in a matter of days, but it still remains one of the worst rates in the UK, and nearly a third of people in the area who were tested returned positive results.
"The greatest tragedy in all of this is that the gurus of wokedom have persuaded thousands of idealistic young people who rightly want to change the world into supporting what is actually a deeply reactionary movement. The trans activists can only realise their aim of being able to enter spaces reserved for women by erasing the female sex. Critical race theory remains credible only so long as black and brown people continue to fail. In the end, the woke movement is turning into an echo of the very oppressors it claims to be combating. After all the statues come down, and women’s prisons are opened to all and sundry, the celebrities and social media warriors will move on to the next fashionable cause — and minorities will still be less likely to win the top jobs, and women will still be the victims of violence. The only thing that will have changed is the bitterness of a generation whose idealism was betrayed.
This isn't far off the mark.....when you think about a lot of the woke identity stuff and start exclusively pigeon holing how races and religions as they all think x, all vote y, it is incredibly racist.
There is quite a close similarity between many of the arguments put forward for "safe spaces" and segregation policies. Racial segregation was often advocated on the basis of protection of minorities.
There are colleges in the US implementing non-white dorms....I mean I thought all those people in the 60s marched for ending exactly that kind of racist bullshit. The woke-ists will argue it is non-white people making a choice, rather than forced to do it, but that doesn't really wash with me. How are you going to break down mistrust, misunderstanding and bring people together, if people start demanding they live separately based upon the colour of their skin.
When I was at university in the 1990s, our college had an all female corridor (aka nuns' corridor) where they unilaterally decided to place most of the first year women with vaguely Muslim sounding or South Asian names - including the woman who became my girlfriend and is now my wife. It was a bit self defeating as most of them soon got boyfriends who stayed over most nights (they had really nice showers). I guess they were trying to do the right thing and we mostly just laugh about it now, but it was kind of dodgy AF.
21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).
The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928
This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.
You do know that the census was 10 years ago, right? And current population estimates are therefore, er, an estimate? And an estimate made at about the most distant time from an actual census it is possible to be?
I was wondering this. There was a census due this year... did it happen?
Yes, census day was in April but efforts to find non-responders carried on till last month. The census is mandated by the Constitution.
Cool, thanks. So all that data is not yet crunched and published and we're looking at 2010 data?
Wasserman says better but not good enough for TRump.
IF he carried on at the same vote share as in the latest batch,(59.3%) he'd just edge it as he needs 57.02% - but the two previous batches were ±55% to Trump.
21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).
The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928
This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.
You keep on falling for fake/outdated news, I'm embarrassed for you.
Social media users have been sharing content online that claims that eight key election states had a higher number of votes cast than there were registered voters, therefore being evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is false as the numbers of registered voters presented are outdated.....
MICHIGAN
The posts give Michigan’s registered voters total as 5,453,000 and projected votes as 5,716,581.
The Michigan Voter Information Center has registered voter statistics on its website here . The number shown at the time of publication is 8,127,804 (no date). This number is significantly higher than the number shown in the claim.
Michigan allows same day voter registration ( here and here ) .
The Detroit Free Press reported that voter turnout in Michigan is projected to be between 53% to 55% ( here ) .
I wish people would make up their minds whether all the stuff beforehand is just flappery as prelude to deal, or if the gov was really aiming for no deal before changing their minds late on. It makes a big difference on the specifics of any criticism.
I'm with HYUFD on this: Boris will cave. Nevertheless, the EU will graciously allow him to declare 'significant concessions' and will play along with the idea that he's making a fight of it.
"The greatest tragedy in all of this is that the gurus of wokedom have persuaded thousands of idealistic young people who rightly want to change the world into supporting what is actually a deeply reactionary movement. The trans activists can only realise their aim of being able to enter spaces reserved for women by erasing the female sex. Critical race theory remains credible only so long as black and brown people continue to fail. In the end, the woke movement is turning into an echo of the very oppressors it claims to be combating. After all the statues come down, and women’s prisons are opened to all and sundry, the celebrities and social media warriors will move on to the next fashionable cause — and minorities will still be less likely to win the top jobs, and women will still be the victims of violence. The only thing that will have changed is the bitterness of a generation whose idealism was betrayed.
This isn't far off the mark.....when you think about a lot of the woke identity stuff and start exclusively pigeon holing how races and religions as they all think x, all vote y, it is incredibly racist.
There is quite a close similarity between many of the arguments put forward for "safe spaces" and segregation policies. Racial segregation was often advocated on the basis of protection of minorities.
There are colleges in the US implementing non-white dorms....I mean I thought all those people in the 60s marched for ending exactly that kind of racist bullshit. The woke-ists will argue it is non-white people making a choice, rather than forced to do it, but that doesn't really wash with me. How are you going to break down mistrust, misunderstanding and bring people together, if people start demanding they live separately based upon the colour of their skin.
When I was at university in the 1990s, our college had an all female corridor (aka nuns' corridor) where they unilaterally decided to place most of the first year women with vaguely Muslim sounding or South Asian names - including the woman who became my girlfriend and is now my wife. It was a bit self defeating as most of them soon got boyfriends who stayed over most nights (they had really nice showers). I guess they were trying to do the right thing and we mostly just laugh about it now, but it was kind of dodgy AF.
There were still two all-female colleges at Oxford when I was there. Somerville went mixed fairly soon after: one story was that they realised it was inevitable when they had a fire-alarm one night and there where more men than women on the grass of the quad...
"The greatest tragedy in all of this is that the gurus of wokedom have persuaded thousands of idealistic young people who rightly want to change the world into supporting what is actually a deeply reactionary movement. The trans activists can only realise their aim of being able to enter spaces reserved for women by erasing the female sex. Critical race theory remains credible only so long as black and brown people continue to fail. In the end, the woke movement is turning into an echo of the very oppressors it claims to be combating. After all the statues come down, and women’s prisons are opened to all and sundry, the celebrities and social media warriors will move on to the next fashionable cause — and minorities will still be less likely to win the top jobs, and women will still be the victims of violence. The only thing that will have changed is the bitterness of a generation whose idealism was betrayed.
This isn't far off the mark.....when you think about a lot of the woke identity stuff and start exclusively pigeon holing how races and religions as they all think x, all vote y, it is incredibly racist.
There is quite a close similarity between many of the arguments put forward for "safe spaces" and segregation policies. Racial segregation was often advocated on the basis of protection of minorities.
There are colleges in the US implementing non-white dorms....I mean I thought all those people in the 60s marched for ending exactly that kind of racist bullshit. The woke-ists will argue it is non-white people making a choice, rather than forced to do it, but that doesn't really wash with me. How are you going to break down mistrust, misunderstanding and bring people together, if people start demanding they live separately based upon the colour of their skin.
When I was at university in the 1990s, our college had an all female corridor (aka nuns' corridor) where they unilaterally decided to place most of the first year women with vaguely Muslim sounding or South Asian names - including the woman who became my girlfriend and is now my wife. It was a bit self defeating as most of them soon got boyfriends who stayed over most nights (they had really nice showers). I guess they were trying to do the right thing and we mostly just laugh about it now, but it was kind of dodgy AF.
Thirty years earlier there was a Women only Teachers Training College (in Ripon IIRC) where the girls were allowed to have ,male visitors on a Sunday afternoon, but had to push the beds out into the corridor. Known as the Virgins Retreat.
"The greatest tragedy in all of this is that the gurus of wokedom have persuaded thousands of idealistic young people who rightly want to change the world into supporting what is actually a deeply reactionary movement. The trans activists can only realise their aim of being able to enter spaces reserved for women by erasing the female sex. Critical race theory remains credible only so long as black and brown people continue to fail. In the end, the woke movement is turning into an echo of the very oppressors it claims to be combating. After all the statues come down, and women’s prisons are opened to all and sundry, the celebrities and social media warriors will move on to the next fashionable cause — and minorities will still be less likely to win the top jobs, and women will still be the victims of violence. The only thing that will have changed is the bitterness of a generation whose idealism was betrayed.
This isn't far off the mark.....when you think about a lot of the woke identity stuff and start exclusively pigeon holing how races and religions as they all think x, all vote y, it is incredibly racist.
There is quite a close similarity between many of the arguments put forward for "safe spaces" and segregation policies. Racial segregation was often advocated on the basis of protection of minorities.
There are colleges in the US implementing non-white dorms....I mean I thought all those people in the 60s marched for ending exactly that kind of racist bullshit. The woke-ists will argue it is non-white people making a choice, rather than forced to do it, but that doesn't really wash with me. How are you going to break down mistrust, misunderstanding and bring people together, if people start demanding they live separately based upon the colour of their skin.
When I was at university in the 1990s, our college had an all female corridor (aka nuns' corridor) where they unilaterally decided to place most of the first year women with vaguely Muslim sounding or South Asian names - including the woman who became my girlfriend and is now my wife. It was a bit self defeating as most of them soon got boyfriends who stayed over most nights (they had really nice showers). I guess they were trying to do the right thing and we mostly just laugh about it now, but it was kind of dodgy AF.
There were still two all-female colleges at Oxford when I was there. Somerville went mixed fairly soon after: one story was that they realised it was inevitable when they had a fire-alarm one night and there where more men than women on the grass of the quad...
I had a friend there - no, not that kind, but I do remember the furniture, including beds and dining room chairs, being about 3/4 of the size of the ones in men's colleges. Do you have that same memory, of it being a bit like visiting primary schooll and trying to sit down at a desk?
I wish people would make up their minds whether all the stuff beforehand is just flappery as prelude to deal, or if the gov was really aiming for no deal before changing their minds late on. It makes a big difference on the specifics of any criticism.
I'm with HYUFD on this: Boris will cave. Nevertheless, the EU will graciously allow him to declare 'significant concessions' and will play along with the idea that he's making a fight of it.
I would expect that too, and I think that's generally how negotiations go and each side pretends (with varying sincerity) to have conceded something but gotten something significant, since it helps sell it to their own side and help the other sell side it to theirs.
But there is a difference between whether it was always intended to thrash out a deal even if it meant 'caving' and talk of no deal was indeed just talk, or whether, as some alleged, the preference was no deal even though they claimed to want a deal, and so they've been forced into changing position.
WTAF? If this is a genuine press conference by Trump lawyers its a shit show. If the venue is the Four Seasons hotel not the neighbours of the porn shop its a shit show.
Bravo. Armando Iannouchi keeps coming up with the goods in this new season of Veep
"The greatest tragedy in all of this is that the gurus of wokedom have persuaded thousands of idealistic young people who rightly want to change the world into supporting what is actually a deeply reactionary movement. The trans activists can only realise their aim of being able to enter spaces reserved for women by erasing the female sex. Critical race theory remains credible only so long as black and brown people continue to fail. In the end, the woke movement is turning into an echo of the very oppressors it claims to be combating. After all the statues come down, and women’s prisons are opened to all and sundry, the celebrities and social media warriors will move on to the next fashionable cause — and minorities will still be less likely to win the top jobs, and women will still be the victims of violence. The only thing that will have changed is the bitterness of a generation whose idealism was betrayed.
This isn't far off the mark.....when you think about a lot of the woke identity stuff and start exclusively pigeon holing how races and religions as they all think x, all vote y, it is incredibly racist.
There is quite a close similarity between many of the arguments put forward for "safe spaces" and segregation policies. Racial segregation was often advocated on the basis of protection of minorities.
There are colleges in the US implementing non-white dorms....I mean I thought all those people in the 60s marched for ending exactly that kind of racist bullshit. The woke-ists will argue it is non-white people making a choice, rather than forced to do it, but that doesn't really wash with me. How are you going to break down mistrust, misunderstanding and bring people together, if people start demanding they live separately based upon the colour of their skin.
When I was at university in the 1990s, our college had an all female corridor (aka nuns' corridor) where they unilaterally decided to place most of the first year women with vaguely Muslim sounding or South Asian names - including the woman who became my girlfriend and is now my wife. It was a bit self defeating as most of them soon got boyfriends who stayed over most nights (they had really nice showers). I guess they were trying to do the right thing and we mostly just laugh about it now, but it was kind of dodgy AF.
There were still two all-female colleges at Oxford when I was there. Somerville went mixed fairly soon after: one story was that they realised it was inevitable when they had a fire-alarm one night and there where more men than women on the grass of the quad...
I had a friend there - no, not that kind, but I do remember the furniture, including beds and dining room chairs, being about 3/4 of the size of the ones in men's colleges. Do you have that same memory, of it being a bit like visiting primary schooll and trying to sit down at a desk?
I don't remember that: by that time there were no men's colleges. Oriel (which was my college) was the last to go mixed, but had been mixed for three years by the time I went up.
Morning all. Thank you David for the tip. I think 50/1 is good enough for Pete but I wouldn't go much shorter than this. I think there is no way KH would allow herself to be pushed out of the way for the Presidency and, if Joe B steps down before, she is automatically in the driving seat.
Now for the hand grenade. Apologies if this was posted before and some of you may now this already. Anyway re the counts.
One misnomer about US elections is that voters get to choose which electors are sent to the Electoral College. Actually they don't. It the state legislatures in each state. The Supreme Court has been specific on this and it has also been specific that the authority lies with the state legislatures, not the Supreme Courts of each state or the Governor or the Secretary of State.
The US Supreme Court has ruled explicitly post-2016 that electors cannot be faithless and must abide by the rulings of the state legislature.
Normally, this wouldn't matter as it is a case of procedure. This year it could come very much into play. The state legislatures of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia are all Republican led.
There is one scenario where the state legislatures in each state simply refuse to accept the results, claiming that there has been electoral fraud and appoints its own electors under mandate. This is why the fact that the RNC and the Republican Establishment have lined up behind Trump is important. It suggests the Republican machinery is set to fight.
Would this be catastrophic? Yes Undemocratic? Yes (but there are legitimate questions over the way elections have been run in the cities) Is it possible? Also yes.
That isn't a realistic scenario as the legal cases would run the other way, requiring the certification of votes in those states in the absence of evidence of widespread fraud. These cases would certainly succeed.
Secondly, this only conceivably works where the state has unified GOP governance, like Georgia. But, in that case, THEY are the ones running the election so they'd be saying their own process was fraudulant.
Additionally, you'd have to be looking at Republican majorities in state legislatures blocking certification the result in their own state, disenfranchising the majority of their own voters (and a fair number of Republican voters too - even if a majority of Republicans supported it, a sizable minority have not drunk the Kool Aid). That'd be very, very, very "brave".
Again, utterly unrealistic moving of divisions that don't exist around a map in the bunker.
Over the last month Mr Ed has hypothesised various theories explaining how Trump is going to win. One by one they have all fallen by the wayside. This one will go the same way.
So first of all you are right OllyT, I thought that Trump would win the election and I was wrong. I also said that there were a number of reasons why Biden wouldn’t get the landslide many predicted on here, and on that I was right.
(By the way, one of the reasons I said Trump would win was that the Hispanics didn’t see themselves as either one bloc or as part of the big happy “People of Colour” family that many on here did. Who was right there?) ...
Latino voters should be a natural ally for the GOP, they are (generally) socially conservative, have actively sought to come to the US to make a better life and so on. They finally seemed to have worked that out. It will be interesting to see how the Democrats respond. So far, it seems to be disappointment about voting for Trump
Strange sentiments from one arguing they ought not to be viewed as a monolithic bloc...
Kamala is in to 360. She was at 600 recently. I hope Joe is OK and hasn't got a cough.
This is close to the territory of gambling which is illegal even in the UK. That being said, doing the maths, 360 is more reasonable than 600 in the time frame.
Arizona looks tight to me, everywhere else does not
Apparently the remainder of ballots from Maricopa County are miscellaneous kinds that have to be counted by hand, including "Braille ballots (which can run hundreds of pages)".
Comments
However - the unremarkably functional and post-industrial looking location may have some logic to it. I'm on your side in everytown USA, the little man against the media and establishment !
In the census data for Michigan is says the total population is 9,986,857
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/MI
21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).
The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928
https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/VoterCount
This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.
https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1325104001944313856
NYT says 97% reported, which would leave very little outside Maricopa County.
Perhaps Arisona can be called (reliably) in five minutes?
2.) I've been told to work from home anyway (I'm classed as "extremely vulnerable").
Biden’s moderate stance might have irritated the progressive wing of the party but can anyone seriously make an argument that Sanders or Warren would be winning this election .
The world seems just a better place to be today , for us liberals who’ve had nothing but pain for the last 4 years Biden’s win is a huge relief , for ardent Remainers even though the EU debate is over a sense of catharsis today , the anti EU anti international co-operation Trump will be going .
Europe as a whole will be celebrating today. A victory of hope and compassion over the disgusting divisive politics of Trump .
Well, maybe.
https://twitter.com/ColbyItkowitz/status/1325093302660718592
(Yes, I know, Google is your friend)
Edit - they had wrong numbers
Not right now. Not when we may be about to get the results that call the 46th President of the USA.
'Ducks and geese battered to death with golf club at Tredegar'
https://tinyurl.com/yxoaf98m
1. The issue was the total votes according to the machines being different (usually more) to the numbers of voters coming to vote as tallied by humans - NOT there being more votes than registered voters as repeatedly implied.
2. The articles blame human error for the differences.
3. The machines registered a few hundred "extra" votes. Not enough to make any difference.
4. Republicans were running the election in Michigan
Yet it somehow justifies what Trump and Republicans are doing now!
It is a fall in infection rates by 100 in a matter of days, but it still remains one of the worst rates in the UK, and nearly a third of people in the area who were tested returned positive results.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54837387
IF he carried on at the same vote share as in the latest batch,(59.3%) he'd just edge it as he needs 57.02% - but the two previous batches were ±55% to Trump.
Social media users have been sharing content online that claims that eight key election states had a higher number of votes cast than there were registered voters, therefore being evidence of electoral fraud. This claim is false as the numbers of registered voters presented are outdated.....
MICHIGAN
The posts give Michigan’s registered voters total as 5,453,000 and projected votes as 5,716,581.
The Michigan Voter Information Center has registered voter statistics on its website here . The number shown at the time of publication is 8,127,804 (no date). This number is significantly higher than the number shown in the claim.
Michigan allows same day voter registration ( here and here ) .
The Detroit Free Press reported that voter turnout in Michigan is projected to be between 53% to 55% ( here ) .
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-table-voter-registration-st/fact-checktable-shows-outdated-voter-registration-numbers-for-eight-key-states-idUSKBN27L2Y8
Also the census figure is an estimate from 2019.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54781288
It sounds like Pa. is getting close to winding this up
But it is very expensive and time consuming.
But there is a difference between whether it was always intended to thrash out a deal even if it meant 'caving' and talk of no deal was indeed just talk, or whether, as some alleged, the preference was no deal even though they claimed to want a deal, and so they've been forced into changing position.
Bravo. Armando Iannouchi keeps coming up with the goods in this new season of Veep
Great spot.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325099845045071873?s=20
They have called it.
Congratulations Joe Biden