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My tip for the US election 2024: Pete Buttigieg at 50/1 – politicalbetting.com
My tip for the US election 2024: Pete Buttigieg at 50/1 – politicalbetting.com
2020 is all over bar the shouting, though there’ll be plenty of that yet. The next two and a half months may not be pretty but their essential course is set: Joe Biden will become president of the United States on 20 January next year. He may not quite be assured of victory in any of the outstanding states but he’s favourite – very strong favourite in some – to take Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. That final state would be enough to see him over the line by itself, as would any two of the other three. That seems all but certain.
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Pete Buttigieg needs to get some hard yards in because mayor of somewhere smaller than Milton Keynes impresses no-one. However, Donald Trump has shown this does not need to be in politics so if no government role is offered, he could always sign up as a pundit with one of the television networks. He has the charm and fluency needed.
Coming back to Pennsylvania and Mike's previous thread, it really is appalling that the Republicans there have deliberately generated instability in this way by refusing to count the mail-ins beforehand. Now you have McCarthy joining Ted Cruz and others in stirring up the Trumpist doubt over the validity of the election.
The Republican Party deserves to be packed into the wilderness for a decade for this. Whether they will be is another matter. But they certainly should be.
I only hope the scales fall from people's eyes.
You may have meant "less populous", of course...
Appearances, and the apparent diversity of the american political tapestry, can be deceptive, though ; like Buttigieg he's an ex-serviceman who worked for McKinsey at a formative time of his young life.
The other one who seems much too long in the price to me is Gretchen Whitmer at 100/1. She must have been considered as Biden’s running mate and she has both name recognition and significant political experience.
But I think it will be moot, as it will be Harris, probably as incumbent (I can see Joe Biden doing a Benedict and announcing on his eightieth birthday that he just can’t manage any more).
Harris v Haley would be an interesting contest, and possibly the contest America needs. Whether the Republican base will be willing to listen to the truths Haley will undoubtedly tell them is another question.
(Incidentally when I go back over one-term elected Presidents declining to seek re-election, I come up with Hayes, 1877-81, who actually ran on a pledge to serve only one term.)
Also, they both seem to me to be tough and unafraid to say what they think even if it isn’t necessarily what will appeal to their supporters. Harris refused to
drop prosecutions of some darlings of the Democratic left, while Haley took down that confederate flag.
One thing Biden would be wise to do - and with hindsight it’s one of Obama’s biggest mistakes that he didn’t do this - is bring on some young talent in executive roles. For example, he should probably be looking to have a Secretary of State in at most their early fifties, and people at Defence and Homeland Security in their late forties. That would allow a new generation to get some experience and build a profile. Think how different life would be if there had been a younger Secretary of State for Obama’s second term rather than he admittedly excellent but also rather elderly John Kerry.
For Buttigieg, if he’s got any sense he’ll be angling for Haley’s old role at the UN. Easy way to build a profile at home and abroad while maintaining a discreet distance from an administration that will undoubtedly have tough choices to make. Also, would give him lots of exposure to foreign affairs with limited opportunities for disasters caused by inexperience.
The problem for many nevertrumpers was not the policies just the amount of shouting and insults thrown as they were implemented.
Cotton gives them enough of a facade to vote for.
Who on PB has ever tipped a correct 50/1 candidate for POTUS !!! ....
There was an order issued by the Secretary of Defense in Nixon’s dog days, when he was very depressed and permanently drunk, that any order to launch nuclear weapons should be double checked with Henry Kissinger. The complicating factor however at the time was that there was no Vice President and Kissinger could hardly invoke the 25th to hand power to Carl Albert.
So hopefully before we get to that stage Pence would have acted.
The safety of the world potentially resting on Mike Pence is admittedly disturbing, but it would only be for a short while.
Trumps claim would be 100,000/1 on merit.
What price are you willing to back Kavanaugh et al rule on merit? Many here are very confident they will put country and the law ahead of partisanship, but I wont be backing them doing that at just over 90%.
Another one that reminds me of 'How Green were the Nazis?"
It is also why he will not only never concede but will genuinely believe he has won the election despite all the real facts clearly showing he has lost. The alternative imagined facts are in his favour, and the only reason he is not declared the winner is his enemies dont accept them.
In a few days the result will be conclusive to everyone except the inner Trump cabal and they will gradually crumble to leave Trump & sons (I wouldn't bet against Melania breaking).
Oh he'll whinge and claim fraud until his dying breath. It's the only way he can avoid the painful truth that he lost.
The narrative will have moved on. People want to be on the winning side.
The real question is where does the GOP go from here? Will those who sided with Trump to the last be ostracized, which is my likeliest scenario? Will the party find its moderate voice? Will they see sense before they damage their hopes in the Georgia run-offs? Or will the hard edge win out for a while albeit without their talismanic leader?
I think Kamala will be president before the 2024 election, with Grandpa Joe stepping down gracefully. He has stated that he sees himself as a bridge to a new generation, and doesn't seem driven by personal ambition.
I expect Joe to appoint a fairly centrist cabinet, of people not motivated by culture war. There are plenty in the Democrat party, and that will suit his desire for bipartisan working. Bipartisanship will be needed to get things through the Senate, and confrontation minimised. There is a lot of work to do.
Nice
Further, in the aftermath (and indeed remains of) the pandemic, there's a significant chance of a Republican recovery, assuming they can move away from crazy. Kamala could be in the unusual position of pitching to remain in the WH yet for the electors being a first time candidate.
If BFE had a market, I'd be looking to lay Biden and otherwise sit and wait.
That's a 0.5 lead. NBC will call it soon
That would have been quite exciting as well.
Even Trump had Michael Flynn and Gary Cohn as Democrats. Jared Kushner was a registered Democrat pre the 2016 election as well.
I think its extremely likely Biden offers at least one cabinet level job to a republican, probably 3.
Suspect the next wild claim from Trump is going to be that somebody tampered with the military votes. Because the military should* all love him, right?
*in his deranged mind
To run against Kamala I think you need to come from a different angle than continuity Biden, and being a woman neutralizes the gender gap, so consider Stacey Abrams who did more for Biden's victory than his own VP. Or AOC who starts with Bernie's 1/3 of the party, and brings youth and charisma and social media skills.
You only need to go back to LBJ in 1968 don't you? It's definitional as David says, but he served out the end of Kennedy's term and had just one term of his own, declining to go for re-election in 1968 as the Vietnam War worsened his prospects.
On successor to Biden if he serves just one term, I think if Biden did only serve one term, Harris would be hard to beat. It's true that she didn't break through in the primaries, but did have a "moment" which didn't quite turn into more than that, and did better than most in a very crowded field. Further, if Biden is thinking of leaving it at one term, then the VP is the person he's grooming for the job - it's an extremely powerful position from which to campaign.
Buttigieg remains extremely young for a Presidential candidate, and would only be 50 (young in Presidential terms) if Biden served one term AND Harris served two. His sexuality is more of a problem for his political career in the US than it would be here in Europe... but that only gets easier over time as generations change. Finally, he does have a real problem with black voters and the left of the party that may prove tough a tough nut to crack for him.
I think it's too skinny personally
Millions of his followers will each hour be getting a growing sense of injustice, fuelled by Trumps own words and lies The longer this stretches out the deeper the resentment and the more a huge part of the electorate and a volatile part at that will refuse to accept it.
Worrying times ahead I feel