"The greatest tragedy in all of this is that the gurus of wokedom have persuaded thousands of idealistic young people who rightly want to change the world into supporting what is actually a deeply reactionary movement. The trans activists can only realise their aim of being able to enter spaces reserved for women by erasing the female sex. Critical race theory remains credible only so long as black and brown people continue to fail. In the end, the woke movement is turning into an echo of the very oppressors it claims to be combating. After all the statues come down, and women’s prisons are opened to all and sundry, the celebrities and social media warriors will move on to the next fashionable cause — and minorities will still be less likely to win the top jobs, and women will still be the victims of violence. The only thing that will have changed is the bitterness of a generation whose idealism was betrayed.
I wish people would make up their minds whether all the stuff beforehand is just flappery as prelude to deal, or if the gov was really aiming for no deal before changing their minds late on. It makes a big difference on the specifics of any criticism.
I'm with HYUFD on this: Boris will cave. Nevertheless, the EU will graciously allow him to declare 'significant concessions' and will play along with the idea that he's making a fight of it.
I would expect that too, and I think that's generally how negotiations go and each side pretends (with varying sincerity) to have conceded something but gotten something significant, since it helps sell it to their own side and help the other sell side it to theirs.
But there is a difference between whether it was always intended to thrash out a deal even if it meant 'caving' and talk of no deal was indeed just talk, or whether, as some alleged, the preference was no deal even though they claimed to want a deal, and so they've been forced into changing position.
I don't think No Deal was ever seriously contemplated. If nothing else, I can't see Boris wanting the hassle and grinding fatigue that all that would entail. A Trump victory might have ameliorated things a tiny bit - Boris could have spun it to his base that all was find and dandy and a deal with Uncle Don was just around the corner (as ludicrous as that may be). But now... what's the point? Just agree a deal and move on.
"The greatest tragedy in all of this is that the gurus of wokedom have persuaded thousands of idealistic young people who rightly want to change the world into supporting what is actually a deeply reactionary movement. The trans activists can only realise their aim of being able to enter spaces reserved for women by erasing the female sex. Critical race theory remains credible only so long as black and brown people continue to fail. In the end, the woke movement is turning into an echo of the very oppressors it claims to be combating. After all the statues come down, and women’s prisons are opened to all and sundry, the celebrities and social media warriors will move on to the next fashionable cause — and minorities will still be less likely to win the top jobs, and women will still be the victims of violence. The only thing that will have changed is the bitterness of a generation whose idealism was betrayed.
Afternoon all ... The truth is the Democrats have a big in-built advantage within the EC and, as 2020 has shown, don't need Texas or Florida to win but if they can secure one or both of those along with Ohio, the Republicans are effectively shut out. ...
Can you explain what you mean by this?
As far as I can work out from my best guess of the results, the tipping point state will end up having a Biden lead of ~2pp, compared to a national vote lead of ~4pp.
That's a pretty large in-built advantage for the Republicans isn't it?
There are 51 elements to the Electoral College - 50 states plus DC.
40 of these are "safe" for either the Democrats or the Republicans - 20 each as it happens.
The safe Democrat states include the populous ones like California, New York, Illinois and the East Coast and between them come to 226 EC votes.
The safe Republican states come to just 125 EC votes as they are all smaller populated states so bring fewer EC votes to the table.
The election is fought over the remaining 187 EC votes in 11 states.
Last time Trump won 10 of those 11 and Clinton only won Nevada despite winning the national poll by 2.1%. That was how vote efficient Trump was.
This time, even though he trails Biden by 2.9% currently (so a swing of just 0.4% from 2016), Trump is looking set to hold only four of the eleven - Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Florida which bring 91 to the table.
Biden looks set to hold Nevada and win Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and perhaps North Carolina so a very small change in national votes has had a fundamental impact on the Electoral College which could well end 306-232, the mirror image of 2016.
In 2004 when Bush beat Kerry by 2.4% (so closer than the 2020 election), he won the EC 286-251. No Republican has won a Presidential vote since and for all everyone talks about how Trump is emulating Carter, it's worth remembering George W Bush only just beat Kerry and no Republican has got above 51% nationally since George HW Bush in 1988.
My point is the Democrats start on 226 and only need 44 to reach 270. If they can convert states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania back to safe seats and perhaps put Texas into the "marginal" column, the task facing any future GOP Presidential candidate is going to be that much harder. As this election has shown, the Democrats can win without Texas and Florida and if Georgia's 16 EC votes are starting to move more into the blue column as well, the Republicans face a huge problem.
I think you're mistaking an "advantage due to being more popular" with a "structural advantage due to the system".
If the Republicans were to win the popular vote by 4pp, then a lot of the States you have down as safe for the Democrats would either fall to the Republicans or be competitive.
Surely the only way to judge an electoral college advantage is by looking at which side wins when the national vote is level?
In 2004 the Democrats had that advantage, but that's since changed.
21.5% of those are under 18 so that makes 78.5% of that figure which is 7,839,682 that are eligible to vote (a little more as perhaps the population has increased from 2010, but a little less as you need to deduct foreign nationals and anyone else excluded).
The number of registered voters in Michigan is 8,128,928
This is higher than the number of eligible voters, which is obviously wrong somehow.
You do know that the census was 10 years ago, right? And current population estimates are therefore, er, an estimate? And an estimate made at about the most distant time from an actual census it is possible to be?
In any case only about 5,400,000 votes were received, so well under the census figure.
Six countries have now reported coronavirus cases linked to mink farms after a Covid mutation spreading from the animals to humans was found in Denmark.
The US, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden have reported Covid cases in minks, the World Health Organisation has confirmed.
Why do we need an ongoing worldwide health hazard, just to suit the vanity of rich women with Neanderthal social values?
Cull the lot.
And the mink.
Apparently, the mink fur is for the Chinese market.
Afternoon all ... The truth is the Democrats have a big in-built advantage within the EC and, as 2020 has shown, don't need Texas or Florida to win but if they can secure one or both of those along with Ohio, the Republicans are effectively shut out. ...
Can you explain what you mean by this?
As far as I can work out from my best guess of the results, the tipping point state will end up having a Biden lead of ~2pp, compared to a national vote lead of ~4pp.
That's a pretty large in-built advantage for the Republicans isn't it?
Yes. The Republicans have an EC advantage. And the trends, if they continue, are probably going to make it
It's actually kinda similar, except: There wasn't a president openly trying to commit a coup at the time. Hillary accepted the results. Were you saying at the time that they probably had a point?
I knew there would be a “it’s different” line...I’m saying that Hillary was looking for an excuse to recount and was actively looking at the fraud route in several states. She didn’t stamp her feet like Trump but it was clear she was also prepared to go down the legal route to overturn it if she could. She didn’t not because she was being magnanimous but because there was no route to her winning.
But of course that’s different.
Underneath it all you are an asshat just like your hero.
I said it's similar, I'm not really interested in defending Clinton, or going over what happened in 2016, but if you think it in any way justifies what Trump and Republicans are doing you are an idiot
Ah, responds with personal insults. Of course, you are not really interested in going over 2016 because you would then have to explain why the likes of you were boring everyone senseless with cries of "Russia!! Russia stole our election!" but then are happy to scream about the integrity of the election process in 2020.
Your that typical partisan who will support their side no matter what and no matter what they do. You are as bad as the most extreme Trumpster, you are just on the other side of the fence.
please don't put words into my mouth.
Also - you were asked about "legitimate questions" about how dems were stealing this election, and you just came up with a pack of lies about the Michigan 2016 recount. You are a liar, just like Trump.
Comments
Is Trevor morphing into Nigel?
With the BBC to follow on Monday.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/oct/11/karen-white-how-manipulative-and-controlling-offender-attacked-again-transgender-prison
If the Republicans were to win the popular vote by 4pp, then a lot of the States you have down as safe for the Democrats would either fall to the Republicans or be competitive.
Surely the only way to judge an electoral college advantage is by looking at which side wins when the national vote is level?
In 2004 the Democrats had that advantage, but that's since changed.
Because it's FOR BIDEN.
https://twitter.com/JohnBarrowman/status/1325113737506779137?s=20
NEW THREAD
Also - you were asked about "legitimate questions" about how dems were stealing this election, and you just came up with a pack of lies about the Michigan 2016 recount. You are a liar, just like Trump.