As the counts continue it’s looking pretty certain that Biden will be heading for the White House –

partypoliticalorphan said:

IanB2 said:

Possible that NV might count another 50k votes today

Something a UK constituency does in c. 5hours each General Election. They are US in the US.

They use new technology and we don't.

Another example of using technology for the sake of it and messing things up. A bit like failing to put in place manual test and trace systems (or even just manual tracing systems) back in the Spring and learning from the success of countries in the Far East, trusting instead that an app would eventually do the business.

This is completely ludicrous. There is literally no chance that Trumpton wins PA.

Just fucking call it.

People care about American elections for the same reasons they care about American music, American movies, American TV, sometimes even American sport. Plus you don't spend that much money on publicity without some international spillover.

Philip_Thompson said:

Is Fox the only network that has called AZ? And with AZ he only needs NV?

Must be guaranteed soon that Biden has won NV so perhaps the other networks are holding off until NV has to be called by everyone thus making Fox have to be the one that calls the Presidency for Biden?

Ralston seems to think there is vote dump incoming from Clark. That should be the “ballgame” as our American friends say but who knows anymore?

Anabobazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Is Fox the only network that has called AZ? And with AZ he only needs NV?

Must be guaranteed soon that Biden has won NV so perhaps the other networks are holding off until NV has to be called by everyone thus making Fox have to be the one that calls the Presidency for Biden?

Ralston seems to think there is vote dump incoming from Clark. That should be the “ballgame” as our American friends say but who knows anymore?

Once Fox calls NV that's it.

Then everyone can get on with it in PA.

Fox is starting to accept the inevitable

IanB2 said:

Fox is starting to accept the inevitable

I want to see the clip of the moment that they actually have to say it.

Benpointer said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

CNN now explaining why/when they’re going to call it. Must have heard us.

So what did they say?

That they arent going to call it yet basically. They need to reach 'a high level' of certainty that Trump cant't win from here. I cant see how he can, i doubt many can but thats what they are saying. And these endless delays on counting there, a lot not being declared until late PA time tonight or tomorrow even mean they might not call it today. My guess is they will take the chance (not Fox first) later this evening US time maybe

‘A majority didn’t vote for Leave’
‘You have to win the peace’
‘Rubbing Remainers noses in it isn’t going to bring the country together’

And many, many more...

When do NV next update?

https://twitter.com/dave_norris/status/1324787784922615808

LadyG said:

EPG said:

People care about American elections for the same reasons they care about American music, American movies, American TV, sometimes even American sport. Plus you don't spend that much money on publicity without some international spillover.

American movies and TV are demonstrably the best in the world. The gap maybe narrows, but it is there (in some ways it widens thanks to the power of Netflix). American music? Hmm... maybe not so much. The American obsession with violent black music slowly detaches from the wider global preference for things like K-pop

American sport is shite. American politics is shite but tediously necessary to watch, for a few more years.

Baseball is fun to watch, and non televised American football.

Rap and its derivatives too, but they are popular in other countries. What was Gangnam Style if not Rap derived?

One weird thing is how popular Country and Western music is in Africa. It can be found on sale in most markets, albeit bootlegged.

AZ are going to be counting all weekend, apparently. Still 250k to go.

Come on, PA, let’s wrap this thing up.

Mal557 said:

justin124 said:

Trump may hold out until every vote has been counted - rather than accepting the network calls. That could take quite a few days.

Trump wont be accepting the network calls or anything else, for the next days and weeks he's deploying Giuliani , Master of the Dark Arts to look for fraud and conspiracy theories in the darkest corners of social media. Hoping he gets lucky and finds something that might reverse up to 4 state results! (newsflash, he wont)

Was Giuliani also looking for fraud down the front of his pants?

eristdoof said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bless

https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/1324766028920983552?s=20

I actually think this is a fair point. I find it interesting that remainers tend to be more interested in US politics than European politics.

People are more interested in the USA generally than most other places, and the presidential election affects people globally in a way that is more signifcant than Ireland, Slovakia, or the UK. I don't think it is surprising in the least. Nor, even though we probably do pay too much attention to it, is it that unreasonable.

50% language and 50% culture

That fits for Ireland as well, but the UK does not go nuts about the Irish elections.

Well in the first place Irish politics is not as significnt as american, but also the distance to the USA actually makes it more interesting without any investment. Plus some good old fashioned trying to ignore anything on the island of Ireland.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/dave_norris/status/1324787784922615808

If it wasn't for those pesky kids, I would have got away with it...

Anabobazina said:

Why the hell is the US so slow to count? We count an electorate of 35 million in a few hours.

But in a lot of places they have a dozen different elections to count.

numbertwelve said:

AZ secretary of state expects count to continue all weekend.

Yawn

Is it possible all the delay is because Robert Cahaly at Trafalgar is knocking doors in PA for the other 50,000 shy Trumpsters his data says live there?

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

IanB2 said:

Fox is starting to accept the inevitable

I want to see the clip of the moment that they actually have to say it.

So far they’ve been interviewing people who have been telling them, and stopped challenging. But I suspect they’d rather keep the hope beyond the point when it is reasonable. Right now they are analysing what straws they might have left, and saying they will stay on the story through the weekend

Anabobazina said:

Why the hell is the US so slow to count? We count an electorate of 35 million in a few hours.

I will try my best to be fair to them:

1. Their ballots contain multiple races on them, House, Senate, President, District Lawn Mower, Fire Hydrant Maintainer etc etc. We keep our ballots separate which I guess makes them easier to count.

2. Due to their bonkers electoral laws, often they need to verify the votes before they count them. A lot of the delay seems to be in verification rather than actual counting.

3. They are more spread out than us, so I suspect it takes a bit longer to get the ballots to the counting centres than us.

4. They seem to use silly counting machines in some places rather than just doing it the old fashioned way, which seems to be a hilariously expensive way of being inefficient, but there you go.

5. I may be wrong, but the impression I'm getting is that these operations just aren't as well staffed as in the UK, where we have an absolute army of volunteers.

All that being said, I still can't see why it takes quite as long as it does.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anabobazina said:

Why the hell is the US so slow to count? We count an electorate of 35 million in a few hours.

But in a lot of places they have a dozen different elections to count.

What I don't understand is how they can count >100 million votes in the first 24 hours but NV, GA , AZ etc can't count 10-50k votes in the last two days.

Oh he's a fuckwit and a half, just ignore him.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anabobazina said:

Why the hell is the US so slow to count? We count an electorate of 35 million in a few hours.

But in a lot of places they have a dozen different elections to count.

As long as they know who the new milk monitor is, the presidency can wait.

Anabobazina said:

Why the hell is the US so slow to count? We count an electorate of 35 million in a few hours.

I expect it has something to do with "states' rights" which introduces a degree of inhomogeneity. Oh, and it's a whacking huge country. For instance, California's economy is roughly the same size as that of GB.

numbertwelve said:

Anabobazina said:

Why the hell is the US so slow to count? We count an electorate of 35 million in a few hours.

I will try my best to be fair to them:

1. Their ballots contain multiple races on them, House, Senate, President, District Lawn Mower, Fire Hydrant Maintainer etc etc. We keep our ballots separate which I guess makes them easier to count.

2. Due to their bonkers electoral laws, often they need to verify the votes before they count them. A lot of the delay seems to be in verification rather than actual counting.

3. They are more spread out than us, so I suspect it takes a bit longer to get the ballots to the counting centres than us.

4. They seem to use silly counting machines in some places rather than just doing it the old fashioned way, which seems to be a hilariously expensive way of being inefficient, but there you go.

5. I may be wrong, but the impression I'm getting is that these operations just aren't as well staffed as in the UK, where we have an absolute army of volunteers.

All that being said, I still can't see why it takes quite as long as it does.

Yes, there are several reasons for being slower, some more reasonable than others, but it's not a perfect justification.

LadyG said:

EPG said:

People care about American elections for the same reasons they care about American music, American movies, American TV, sometimes even American sport. Plus you don't spend that much money on publicity without some international spillover.

American movies and TV are demonstrably the best in the world. The gap maybe narrows, but it is there (in some ways it widens thanks to the power of Netflix). American music? Hmm... maybe not so much. The American obsession with violent black music slowly detaches from the wider global preference for things like K-pop

American sport is shite. American politics is shite but tediously necessary to watch, for a few more years.

Rock and metal music is still massive and dominated by American bands. Lots of good European bands, but most are derivative of the original and better US bands.

MrEd said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Yokes said:

Mal557 said:

It seems to me Trump is digging in, he has probably given himself a timescale to find enough dirt or evidence of fraud to turn this over, crazy as it sounds. I am expecting the next few days and weeks Giuliani and Trumps other hatchet men will be trawling the dark regions of twitter and other social media to try get examples of fraud in these states.
Someone said about 'throwing sht at the wall until something sticks' this is my view, he will promote any tenuous and weak evidence of 'fraud' and push the narrative in the hope,,,he finds something major by chance. At some point maybe in a few weeks if hes got nothing (most likely) he will slink off and do a reality TV network.

The first danger point is this weekend, the key swing states will be called and people have the weekend to digest or protest. If Trump can directly or indirectly raise a street activist movement in some way we might get indications this weekend but trouble on the street of any notable kind will really do it for him. Mass dusts up are unlikely, the greater risk is five loons who dress in combat gear (they will call it tactical gear) on weekends shooting someone in an organised attack. Again Trump will be tagged with it and will really cause damage.

This is being almost entirely driven by Trump himself with his family and I get it, this is more than just ego or a sense of grievance. Trump knows that it isn't likely to be a quiet retirement and lecture tours and he could potentially be ruined. As far as the Trump family is concerned they are fighting for their lives, at least as they know it.

The top echelons of the GOP will simply keep things bland because Trump still has two months in the White House and they do fear that Trumpites but the gap that Biden has looks likely to work for them as much as the Democrats because it helps amplify the sense that things are done.

It's very hard to discern the motives of a narcissist such as Trump. Not all his actions can be put down to rational motives.

I think the Republican heirarchy will be praying that at some point soon he will give up and go off in a sulk while the Democrats should be hoping that he continues to throw his toys out of the pram like the spoilt brat he is. The failure of Trump to go with good grace is frankly disgracing both him and those Republicans who feel too compromised to push him towards the door in public. With two critical Senate run off races looming, that is not a good look.

I'm not as optimistic as you @Yokes that the Republican leadership will simply play ball with Biden post-this election. They buy into the narrative that the Democrats have padded the votes, they just can't publicly say it and / or accept it as a way of doing politics. They are scared re the Democrats controlling all 3 branches. No one in Washington, Republican or Democrat, believes Biden is the effective President, they all know (or think they know) that he will be gone within a year or so and Harris takes over and, at that point, all bets are off.

Sounds like there will be great value in backing Biden to last all 4 years, and probably Biden to win in 2024 as well!

TheScreamingEagles said:

I really want to go to bed, because I've living in about 6 different time zones this week, but I don't want to miss the official announcement of the result.

The way things are going in PA I think you could do a Rip Van Winkle and still wake up in time for that!

Toms said:

Anabobazina said:

Why the hell is the US so slow to count? We count an electorate of 35 million in a few hours.

I expect it has something to do with "states' rights" which introduces a degree of inhomogeneity. Oh, and it's a whacking huge country. For instance, California's economy is roughly the same size as that of GB.

Agreed but then do it properly at county level and report centrally to the statehouse.

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bless

https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/1324766028920983552?s=20

I actually think this is a fair point. I find it interesting that remainers tend to be more interested in US politics than European politics.

People are more interested in the USA generally than most other places, and the presidential election affects people globally in a way that is more signifcant than Ireland, Slovakia, or the UK. I don't think it is surprising in the least. Nor, even though we probably do pay too much attention to it, is it that unreasonable.

50% language and 50% culture

Just for a bit of fun, and while we're waiting for the painfully slow American count, if the "Anglosphere" countries were part of the US electoral college (crazy, I know!), they would have the following EVs:

UK 111 (England 93, Scotland 9, Wales 6, NI 3)
Ireland 8
Canada 62
Australia 42
NZ 8

If Puerto Rico were a State, it would have 5 EVs, the other four US territories would share an EV between them, and the UK's territories and Crown Dependencies would share another EV.

Caveat, I used total population of the USA (as opposed to Electorate) as well as of the other Anglosphere countries/territories.

Remember, this is just for a bit of fun!

https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1324765590863699973

partypoliticalorphan said:

IanB2 said:

Possible that NV might count another 50k votes today

Something a UK constituency does in c. 5hours each General Election. They are US in the US.

Yes that's an easy argument to put forward but I'm not convinced.

In 2010, the UK General Election coincided with local elections in London. For East Ham, we had both a GE ballot and local council ballot and that meant an extended verification process with the GE boundaries not co-terminous with the Newham Borough boundaries. It took well into the morning before we had results.

It's much easier with one election and one ballot - in the US there are any number of contests (Senate, Congressional and a plethora of more local contests). That's democracy - the more of it there is, the longer it takes.

We also have all the different rules each State has in terms of what's counted and when. When I saw Trump ahead by 14 in PA on Wednesday morning, I was stunned until I remembered the mail-in ballots hadn't been counted and a tweet put up on here showing Trump needed a 16-point advantage to be sure of winning the State.

Other states had already started counting the mail-in ballots, some accept ballots arriving AFTER the election as long as they are post-stamped before the close of polling. Then you have military ballots - the US has many more service personnel overseas than the UK and they all vote in their home state (presumably).

Yet for all this, most states can be called as soon as polls close. Wyoming and Oregon are easy calls (indeed, 39 states plus DC are easy). The other eleven are a little harder and we now see Georgia with Biden ahead by 1500 out of more than 5 million votes cast.

The closest result last December in England was Bury North which the Conservatives won by 105. Applying the current Georgia difference would be 14 votes. I imagine with a difference like that we would be in to multiple recounts.

Florida has a population of more than 21 million and counts its vote in a matter of hours.

Nevada has a fraction of that, pretty much all of it in the Las Vegas metro, and it takes days.

Can someone explain why?

kle4 said:

I hope Biden does run again in 2024, I think that would be hilarious. Heck, have Trump go in for rematch while we're at it.

Clinton 2028

noneoftheabove said:

MrEd said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Yokes said:

Mal557 said:

It seems to me Trump is digging in, he has probably given himself a timescale to find enough dirt or evidence of fraud to turn this over, crazy as it sounds. I am expecting the next few days and weeks Giuliani and Trumps other hatchet men will be trawling the dark regions of twitter and other social media to try get examples of fraud in these states.
Someone said about 'throwing sht at the wall until something sticks' this is my view, he will promote any tenuous and weak evidence of 'fraud' and push the narrative in the hope,,,he finds something major by chance. At some point maybe in a few weeks if hes got nothing (most likely) he will slink off and do a reality TV network.

The first danger point is this weekend, the key swing states will be called and people have the weekend to digest or protest. If Trump can directly or indirectly raise a street activist movement in some way we might get indications this weekend but trouble on the street of any notable kind will really do it for him. Mass dusts up are unlikely, the greater risk is five loons who dress in combat gear (they will call it tactical gear) on weekends shooting someone in an organised attack. Again Trump will be tagged with it and will really cause damage.

This is being almost entirely driven by Trump himself with his family and I get it, this is more than just ego or a sense of grievance. Trump knows that it isn't likely to be a quiet retirement and lecture tours and he could potentially be ruined. As far as the Trump family is concerned they are fighting for their lives, at least as they know it.

The top echelons of the GOP will simply keep things bland because Trump still has two months in the White House and they do fear that Trumpites but the gap that Biden has looks likely to work for them as much as the Democrats because it helps amplify the sense that things are done.

It's very hard to discern the motives of a narcissist such as Trump. Not all his actions can be put down to rational motives.

I think the Republican heirarchy will be praying that at some point soon he will give up and go off in a sulk while the Democrats should be hoping that he continues to throw his toys out of the pram like the spoilt brat he is. The failure of Trump to go with good grace is frankly disgracing both him and those Republicans who feel too compromised to push him towards the door in public. With two critical Senate run off races looming, that is not a good look.

I'm not as optimistic as you @Yokes that the Republican leadership will simply play ball with Biden post-this election. They buy into the narrative that the Democrats have padded the votes, they just can't publicly say it and / or accept it as a way of doing politics. They are scared re the Democrats controlling all 3 branches. No one in Washington, Republican or Democrat, believes Biden is the effective President, they all know (or think they know) that he will be gone within a year or so and Harris takes over and, at that point, all bets are off.

Sounds like there will be great value in backing Biden to last all 4 years, and probably Biden to win in 2024 as well!

Yup. Biden can be the Democratic Reagan.

Anabobazina said:

Florida has a population of more than 21 million and counts its vote in a matter of hours.

Nevada has a fraction of that, pretty much all of it in the Las Vegas metro, and it takes days.

Can someone explain why?

Florida didn't want to ever go through a 2000 situation again?

gealbhan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Is Fox the only network that has called AZ? And with AZ he only needs NV?

Must be guaranteed soon that Biden has won NV so perhaps the other networks are holding off until NV has to be called by everyone thus making Fox have to be the one that calls the Presidency for Biden?

Ralston seems to think there is vote dump incoming from Clark. That should be the “ballgame” as our American friends say but who knows anymore?

Once Fox calls NV that's it.

Then everyone can get on with it in PA.

In his daily 1000 the cheerful returning officer type geezer in Clark (he’s not really cheerful btw I was being ironic) said there would be a dump before 4pm their time I calculated as about midnight our time.

He also said it wouldn’t be as big as this morning’s dump.

Hope this helps.,

Somebody needs some Senokot?

Carnyx said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1324765590863699973

The one thing the SNP aren't is nativists.

You Kippers in kilts are in denial about that.

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1324823556308541441

MrEd said:

noneoftheabove said:

MrEd said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Yokes said:

Mal557 said:

It seems to me Trump is digging in, he has probably given himself a timescale to find enough dirt or evidence of fraud to turn this over, crazy as it sounds. I am expecting the next few days and weeks Giuliani and Trumps other hatchet men will be trawling the dark regions of twitter and other social media to try get examples of fraud in these states.
Someone said about 'throwing sht at the wall until something sticks' this is my view, he will promote any tenuous and weak evidence of 'fraud' and push the narrative in the hope,,,he finds something major by chance. At some point maybe in a few weeks if hes got nothing (most likely) he will slink off and do a reality TV network.

The first danger point is this weekend, the key swing states will be called and people have the weekend to digest or protest. If Trump can directly or indirectly raise a street activist movement in some way we might get indications this weekend but trouble on the street of any notable kind will really do it for him. Mass dusts up are unlikely, the greater risk is five loons who dress in combat gear (they will call it tactical gear) on weekends shooting someone in an organised attack. Again Trump will be tagged with it and will really cause damage.

This is being almost entirely driven by Trump himself with his family and I get it, this is more than just ego or a sense of grievance. Trump knows that it isn't likely to be a quiet retirement and lecture tours and he could potentially be ruined. As far as the Trump family is concerned they are fighting for their lives, at least as they know it.

The top echelons of the GOP will simply keep things bland because Trump still has two months in the White House and they do fear that Trumpites but the gap that Biden has looks likely to work for them as much as the Democrats because it helps amplify the sense that things are done.

It's very hard to discern the motives of a narcissist such as Trump. Not all his actions can be put down to rational motives.

I think the Republican heirarchy will be praying that at some point soon he will give up and go off in a sulk while the Democrats should be hoping that he continues to throw his toys out of the pram like the spoilt brat he is. The failure of Trump to go with good grace is frankly disgracing both him and those Republicans who feel too compromised to push him towards the door in public. With two critical Senate run off races looming, that is not a good look.

I'm not as optimistic as you @Yokes that the Republican leadership will simply play ball with Biden post-this election. They buy into the narrative that the Democrats have padded the votes, they just can't publicly say it and / or accept it as a way of doing politics. They are scared re the Democrats controlling all 3 branches. No one in Washington, Republican or Democrat, believes Biden is the effective President, they all know (or think they know) that he will be gone within a year or so and Harris takes over and, at that point, all bets are off.

Sounds like there will be great value in backing Biden to last all 4 years, and probably Biden to win in 2024 as well!

Haha, you're right. Bet against me and you will always win (well, not always )

Ha! Fair play to you mate for that one ☺️

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Anabobazina said:

Florida has a population of more than 21 million and counts its vote in a matter of hours.

Nevada has a fraction of that, pretty much all of it in the Las Vegas metro, and it takes days.

Can someone explain why?

What happens there, stays there?

Don't some states like FL and OH count their postals early,,,and can start counting them before election day so they only need to be called or perhaps checked and called after the polls close? Whereas some states like PA dont even start counting postals til the polls close. Not saying its a good thing but I know some states have totally different rules on postal votes besides just if they count them first or last in the process.

https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1324824246347026434

Gaussian said:

Mal557 said:

Because Trump knows he has millions and millions of 'follow me to the grave' supporters he feels he can refuse to accept the result until he finds the 'holy grail' of some election reversing fraud (that isnt there ofc). He also with the way he has lived his life feels he, and his MAGAs can 'bully' the rest of the USA into letting him win by wearing them down with endless lawsuits and conspiracy theories.
Crazy I know but its Trumps playbook.

Say the militias enter counting centres, halt the counts, and destroy ballots, thereby also triggering general pandemonium. What happens to the ECVs of states thus affected?

Dont' give him ideas please...!

OnboardG1 said:

Burgessian said:

Just watching the scene at the Pittsburgh voting centre. It's more lively in the village hall for the Little Snoring parish council election count.

They're not starting counting in Pittsburgh until 2200 our time. Yeah I don't know why either.

It wasn’t even clear why they didn’t count them yesterday - instead they took the day off for administrative training or some such. Now they restart at 1700 local time on a Friday night.

Great scheduling guys.