As the counts continue it’s looking pretty certain that Biden will be heading for the White House –
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My final comment for a while (all the betting opportunities now up). I will be back sometime next week
If I were Trump I would have stayed silent or put out briefings that i wanted to see all the votes counted before further comment.
Then in concession speech referenced it might all have been different if not for Covid but Congrats to Joe0 -
The last decent reputation polls had Biden on 45% and Trump on 50% in Alaska. Not impossible I guess.Mysticrose said:
Georgia hasn't been blue since 1992 ... those odds are terrible value.Drutt said:
AK Rep is 1.03 and good value at it. Hasn't been blue since LBJ.Sean_F said:
I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?0 -
Tom Watson?Scott_xP said:4 -
Biden 1.030
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I really don't get otherwise well-informed people who don't understand that the election result in one country doesn't have any legal impact in another. Brexit didn't happen (and I use the past tense, as we've already left the EU) because it had a sufficient level of public support in early 2020. It happened because MPs voted for legislation which enacted it, and the path to reversing it involves electing a Parliament who will vote for legislation to rejoin the EU. That is very unlikely to occur, and it hasn't become materially more likely because Trump has lost.isam said:How to accept defeat and move on
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=200 -
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I doubt I said that, as I knew Trump was only 5% ahead last time.Mysticrose said:
Didn't you tell me that about Georgia when I said Biden was going to win it?Sean_F said:
I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
(Apologies if it wasn't you.)
Alaska is NOT a given and neither is it "vanishingly improbable".0 -
Check out Ryan Matsumoto. Really clued in analyst.rcs1000 said:Is it me, or has Nate Cohn been a better analyser than Nate Silver this election? (At least on the night and subsequent days.)
They get super kudos for having GA as a 56% Dem chance on their needle when it was at about 9s on Betfair.0 -
Great, albeit obvious, point by Dan Hopkins below on 538 to which I would add that this election is NOT close. It only looks that way because of how the votes were counted. It has been exciting, thrilling, but close it isn't. The only close state is Georgia and Biden has obviously won it no matter how many times Trump tries to recount. There are no hanging chads to rescue him there. Biden has, in fact, won convincingly.
"The fact that ballots are counted sequentially lends the process of vote counting important transparency. But it can also lead us to apply inappropriate mental frames. For instance, we may resort to horse-race language that suggests that Biden is pulling ahead at the last second, but in fact these votes were all cast on or before Election Day. The illusion of a dramatic horse race is simply a product of the order in which we count votes." (Dan Hopkins 538)4 -
NBC have called the Arizona senate race for the Dems.0
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For themselves or........Scott_xP said:1 -
BBC News - Coronavirus: All Blacks rugby looking at private equity bids
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-548206520 -
I think RCS said that Clinton won the military vote in Georgia in 2016 so not sure Trump is going to gain much if anything from it this year.Pro_Rata said:Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
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Sorry, ready to goturbotubbs said:
Sorry to be thick but that seems ambiguous! Done and dusted = no good OR done and dusted = ready to go?isam said:
My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dustedMaxPB said:National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.
I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.0 -
Can see that changing with Biden in the hot seat.Scott_xP said:0 -
Yes, Nate Cohn was much better once votes began being counted.rcs1000 said:Is it me, or has Nate Cohn been a better analyser than Nate Silver this election? (At least on the night and subsequent days.)
They get super kudos for having GA as a 56% Dem chance on their needle when it was at about 9s on Betfair.0 -
Biden's lead in Georgia up to 1585.0
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I always thought it was an interesting psychological difference marker between America and Britain that in the US one runs for election but in the UK one stands.Mysticrose said:Great, albeit obvious, point by Dan Hopkins below on 538 to which I would add that this election is NOT close. It only looks that way because of how the votes were counted. It has been exciting, thrilling, but close it isn't. The only close state is Georgia and Biden has obviously won it no matter how many times Trump tries to recount. There are no hanging chads to rescue him there. Biden has, in fact, won convincingly.
"The fact that ballots are counted sequentially lends the process of vote counting important transparency. But it can also lead us to apply inappropriate mental frames. For instance, we may resort to horse-race language that suggests that Biden is pulling ahead at the last second, but in fact these votes were all cast on or before Election Day. The illusion of a dramatic horse race is simply a product of the order in which we count votes." (Dan Hopkins 538)4 -
A surprising number lasted from start to end, Pence, Mnuchin, Perdue, De Vos, Chao, RossScott_xP said:1 -
Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading.
Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
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I don't know, is there?ping said:
Adonis is an arse, but there now a serious problem re: brexit, no?isam said:How to accept democratic defeat
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=20
Really, the great opportunity the referendum gave was by telling the political establishment what they were missing by only talking to themselves - that half of the country fundamentally disagreed with them. Cameron, Clegg and Miliband thought the status quo was hunky dory, but it wasn't. I don't know that they have taken any notice - Sir Keir and Boris are squabbling over small print re lockdown as if everyone is with them on that.0 -
That is a very good thread.eek said:AOC has some very valid reasons as to why the Democrats have done badly in places
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324694301234921474
I don't share her politics, but every argument she makes on this is correct.4 -
Much.rcs1000 said:Is it me, or has Nate Cohn been a better analyser than Nate Silver this election? (At least on the night and subsequent days.)
They get super kudos for having GA as a 56% Dem chance on their needle when it was at about 9s on Betfair.
And quicker on his calls, too.0 -
COVID patients in hospital - England: falling Scotland: level wales: rising rapidly0
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There aren't 8k military ballots to be counted in GA, there are 'up to' 8k. 8k of the military ballots sent out weren't returned by election day, but have a few days to arrive (if posted by election day). So some of those will arrive, but almost certainly it won't be anywhere near all of them. Most of those 8k probably never voted.Pro_Rata said:Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
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Big batch of AZ votes about to drop0
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The ones who weren't involved in committing or covering up Trump crimes.noneoftheabove said:
A surprising number lasted from start to end, Pence, Mnuchin, Perdue, De Vos, Chao, RossScott_xP said:1 -
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Yes, the American military trends, as @Dura_Ace pointed out, more towards highly educated specialists than most militaries. And Trump's "losers and suckers" assessment of the boys and girls in pinks, greens, khaki and blue won't have helped him any.OllyT said:
I think RCS said that Clinton won the military vote in Georgia in 2016 so not sure Trump is going to gain much if anything from it this year.Pro_Rata said:Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
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And in some states a deliberate illusion caused by Republicans themselves.Mysticrose said:Great, albeit obvious, point by Dan Hopkins below on 538 to which I would add that this election is NOT close. It only looks that way because of how the votes were counted. It has been exciting, thrilling, but close it isn't. The only close state is Georgia and Biden has obviously won it no matter how many times Trump tries to recount. There are no hanging chads to rescue him there. Biden has, in fact, won convincingly.
"The fact that ballots are counted sequentially lends the process of vote counting important transparency. But it can also lead us to apply inappropriate mental frames. For instance, we may resort to horse-race language that suggests that Biden is pulling ahead at the last second, but in fact these votes were all cast on or before Election Day. The illusion of a dramatic horse race is simply a product of the order in which we count votes." (Dan Hopkins 538)2 -
Some people have advanced the notion is that he doesn't get to be counted as a Fascist because he didn't get well enough organised.dixiedean said:Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading.
Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.4 -
Simpler than that. Boris hasn't been f**ked enough to think about it, so no instructions have been given to Frost, so he's held his previous position.Scott_xP said:0 -
BTW before i go thanks to Mike, Robert, TSE and all the Mods for proving the best place to enjoy the US Election. And to Barnesian for the on night Zoom.8
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I agree I find Cohn pretty balanced in his reporting and very little hyperbole. And I loved the needle.Quincel said:
Yes, Nate Cohn was much better once votes began being counted.rcs1000 said:Is it me, or has Nate Cohn been a better analyser than Nate Silver this election? (At least on the night and subsequent days.)
They get super kudos for having GA as a 56% Dem chance on their needle when it was at about 9s on Betfair.0 -
Ahh, but you are not Trump, being sane and all.bigjohnowls said:My final comment for a while (all the betting opportunities now up). I will be back sometime next week
If I were Trump I would have stayed silent or put out briefings that i wanted to see all the votes counted before further comment.
Then in concession speech referenced it might all have been different if not for Covid but Congrats to Joe0 -
Note that China appears to have been prompter than this in sharing data...
https://twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/13246874273327022080 -
How far off 50% is Purdue - could a recount change that ?Alistair said:
If the Dems end up with a 1 seat majority in the Senate with a double run off in Georgia to come I will laugh my cock off.Mysticrose said:Re. North Carolina and Alaska, here's from the 538 live blog. I don't think Alaska is over. Actually neither of them are entirely.
"You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air."
And whatever Thom Tillis thinks, he hasn't yet defeated Cal Cunningham for the Senate. The Alaska Senate race is also not a given.0 -
The second lockdown has probably had a bigger effect.OnboardG1 said:
Can see that changing with Biden in the hot seat.Scott_xP said:
The same people he's fucked off with that would be even more fucked off with a deal, and he doesn't want to do both at the same time and generate letters.
So I think he'll try and can kick a decision until we come out of lockdown and he has some good news.
I think this will go all the way to the wire and only be settled in the week before Christmas. Hopefully, the EU and UK will then agree the final FTA can-kicks any changes for 6 months so The Transition ends but we have a transition (small t) into the new deal.0 -
That seems fair enough.Alistair said:
Some people have advanced the notion is that he doesn't get to be counted as a Fascist because he didn't get well enough organised.dixiedean said:Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading.
Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.0 -
They should make her head of digital campaigning. She is really fucking good at it.Nigelb said:
That is a very good thread.eek said:AOC has some very valid reasons as to why the Democrats have done badly in places
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324694301234921474
I don't share her politics, but every argument she makes on this is correct.0 -
I knew Lord Falconer would come through!Scott_xP said:
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GA looks pretty solid now for Biden, dont see the ex pat/military making much difference in the result , more the margin of victory. Aslo they dont even know how many have actually been received or will be today (the last day) so may well be a fair bit less than the was it 9000? mentioned. And with a few thousand lead at least, unlikely a recount will change that, though god knows what other mischief Trump will raise about GA.OllyT said:
I think RCS said that Clinton won the military vote in Georgia in 2016 so not sure Trump is going to gain much if anything from it this year.Pro_Rata said:Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
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I'm just pondering the 78-yr olds I know.
Not many of them have the energy to do much at all (some of course do). Some are super active, but to be POTUS? Seems a big ask. Although I accept that to be there, Biden was self-selecting in terms of health, fitness, etc.
Edit: I suppose HMQ and the DoE showed that people can be effective up to a great age.0 -
Legal or illegal?FrancisUrquhart said:23,287 new cases.
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With all the other news, the potentially huge news out of Denmark isn't getting that much coverage. We could literally be stuck in the current loop for entity.Nigelb said:Note that China appears to have been prompter than this in sharing data...
/twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/13246874273327022080 -
10K gain for Biden in NV, the Clarke County numbers will only be go up more now0
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Nevada vote dump. Biden increases lead to over 20k.0
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He said that last night too, but nice to have it confirmed againScott_xP said:0 -
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Nevada: I've seen enough.0
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Deep state been printing votes all night in NV ;-)0
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Checking, I think the Democrats need to outpoll the Republicans 71/29 in the outstanding votes to win Alaska. Anything can happen of course, but I don't know why Alaska would shift dramatically from 2016.2
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Well, now it's pretty much over I will admit a) my prediction of a Biden landslide was completely wrong, and b) I really don't care as long as Trump is gone.
(Any anyway, I think I only called three states wrong (Texas, Ohio, Florida), so I was pretty close really).
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McSally officially out in AZ, no surprise ofc1
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Awe I missed PA crossover. All over now it seems, they have to start calling states soon I find it hard to believe nothing's been called yet - especially NV.0
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What do you reckon Big G; should you & I make a joint offer!TOPPING said:I'm just pondering the 78-yr olds I know.
Not many of them have the energy to do much at all (some of course do). Some are super active, but to be POTUS? Seems a big ask. Although I accept that to be there, Biden was self-selecting in terms of health, fitness, etc.
Edit: I suppose HMQ and the DoE showed that people can be effective up to a great age.0 -
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Trump: We've all seen enough.Alistair said:Nevada: I've seen enough.
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Perdue will probably be about 0.5% short, and 2% ahead of Ossoff.Pulpstar said:
How far off 50% is Purdue - could a recount change that ?Alistair said:
If the Dems end up with a 1 seat majority in the Senate with a double run off in Georgia to come I will laugh my cock off.Mysticrose said:Re. North Carolina and Alaska, here's from the 538 live blog. I don't think Alaska is over. Actually neither of them are entirely.
"You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air."
And whatever Thom Tillis thinks, he hasn't yet defeated Cal Cunningham for the Senate. The Alaska Senate race is also not a given.0 -
If everyone who voted by mail in 2016 voted by mail this time then the extra 2020 ballots over 2016 would need to be 100% Dem for Biden to get that ratio and win.Sean_F said:Checking, I think the Democrats need to outpoll the Republicans 71/29 in the outstanding votes to win Alaska. Anything can happen of course, but I don't know why Alaska would shift dramatically from 2016.
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No reason to hold off calling NV now.Philip_Thompson said:Awe I missed PA crossover. All over now it seems, they have to start calling states soon I find it hard to believe nothing's been called yet - especially NV.
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Do you think the Danes are hiding something?Nigelb said:Note that China appears to have been prompter than this in sharing data...
https://twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/13246874273327022080 -
They're preparing the dais for Biden's winning speech later0
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Unperson. Who'd want to be represented by Depp after that court case?TheScreamingEagles said:Called it the other day.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1324753466644963328
Pirates of the Caribbean will need a new lead pirate if there's any more films.0 -
yes he is...FrancisUrquhart said:He isn't going anywhere....
https://twitter.com/simonemarie4/status/13247530234327080981 -
I suggest that the only role the military will have in this election is to escort ex-President Trump out of the Oval Office on Jan 20th.1
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An awful lot of truth in that.Andy_JS said:1 -
Been busy this morning. How is it going in NV and AZ? Are we comfortable Biden will take both, or will Trump squeeze by in AZ?
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My call of 2% Biden win in Nevada may be too low!2
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I reckon you'd stroll it.OldKingCole said:
What do you reckon Big G; should you & I make a joint offer!TOPPING said:I'm just pondering the 78-yr olds I know.
Not many of them have the energy to do much at all (some of course do). Some are super active, but to be POTUS? Seems a big ask. Although I accept that to be there, Biden was self-selecting in terms of health, fitness, etc.
Edit: I suppose HMQ and the DoE showed that people can be effective up to a great age.
But if you look at UK PMs, they age by about 20yrs in the 5yrs of PM-ship.0 -
20 January he is out. Secret Service will remove him if need be.FrancisUrquhart said:He isn't going anywhere....
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324752659996397575?s=190 -
The before/after photos of Obama are quite striking. Definitely a stressful position.TOPPING said:
I reckon you'd stroll it.OldKingCole said:
What do you reckon Big G; should you & I make a joint offer!TOPPING said:I'm just pondering the 78-yr olds I know.
Not many of them have the energy to do much at all (some of course do). Some are super active, but to be POTUS? Seems a big ask. Although I accept that to be there, Biden was self-selecting in terms of health, fitness, etc.
Edit: I suppose HMQ and the DoE showed that people can be effective up to a great age.
But if you look at UK PMs, they age by about 20yrs in the 5yrs of PM-ship.0 -
I read through the thread there and the assessment in Derek Lowe’s blog. The TLDR is that “this is potentially an issue but we don’t know how big, so we’re going to stomp on it really hard and remove the animal vector that could cause more mutations”. The media seems to have taken the story a little too far. The fire alarm has been pulled because of a fire in the store room, nit because the factory floor is in flames.FrancisUrquhart said:
With all the other news, the potentially huge news out of Denmark isn't getting that much coverage. We could literally be stuck in the current loop for entity.Nigelb said:Note that China appears to have been prompter than this in sharing data...
/twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/13246874273327022080 -
Oregon has become the first US state to decriminalise possession of hard drugs including cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine, in small quantities.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/measure-110-oregon-votes-to-decriminalise-possession-of-small-amounts-of-hard-drugs-g697p606m
They don't seem to bother prosecuting loads of crimes as it is, so might as well get them off the books.0 -
She is an enormously impressive politician.OnboardG1 said:
They should make her head of digital campaigning. She is really fucking good at it.Nigelb said:
That is a very good thread.eek said:AOC has some very valid reasons as to why the Democrats have done badly in places
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324694301234921474
I don't share her politics, but every argument she makes on this is correct.2 -
He has a net worth of $200 million so could never work another day in his life and still have plenty to spareTheScreamingEagles said:Called it the other day.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/13247534666449633280 -
No; that would probably be the Secret Service.OldKingCole said:I suggest that the only role the military will have in this election is to escort ex-President Trump out of the Oval Office on Jan 20th.
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This is what I was most wrong about. I never thought that Trump would be sending direct orders to the militia, but I expected that the protests we've seen at the count centres would have been armed and stormed them without direct orders.dixiedean said:Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading.
Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
It's not happened.
Trump was leading in the vote counts in enough states to get to 270 on Wednesday. In my nightmare scenario the counts would have been stopped by force and declared by state legislatures on the basis of the partial counts.1 -
If you look at the GA map, Columbus is Blue. That is Fort Benning. Savannah is Blue. That is Fort Gordon. Draw you own conclusions.Mal557 said:
GA looks pretty solid now for Biden, dont see the ex pat/military making much difference in the result , more the margin of victory. Aslo they dont even know how many have actually been received or will be today (the last day) so may well be a fair bit less than the was it 9000? mentioned. And with a few thousand lead at least, unlikely a recount will change that, though god knows what other mischief Trump will raise about GA.OllyT said:
I think RCS said that Clinton won the military vote in Georgia in 2016 so not sure Trump is going to gain much if anything from it this year.Pro_Rata said:Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
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But his logic is wandering off into the distance.FrancisUrquhart said:He isn't going anywhere....
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324752659996397575?s=190 -
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania reduced to 8867.0
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It's quite a robust democracy really isn't it, whatever Trump has tried? I love the way officials, even courts, have ignored him almost completely during the counting.LostPassword said:
This is what I was most wrong about. I never thought that Trump would be sending direct orders to the militia, but I expected that the protests we've seen at the count centres would have been armed and stormed them without direct orders.dixiedean said:Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading.
Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
It's not happened.
Trump was leading in the vote counts in enough states to get to 270 on Wednesday. In my nightmare scenario the counts would have been stopped by force and declared by state legislatures on the basis of the partial counts.
The system has faults but there are a lot of checks and balances in place to protect freedom.
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How likely is it that Biden breaches 52%+ of the vote once everything is in?
I think he's at 50.5% at the moment and I could see him getting damn close once California and all the absentees are in.
It's 3.15 on Betfair. Following a tip from @Quincel on Twitter a while back I've put a couple of ponies on it.
It feels like it's more like evens.0 -
Possibly true, but some folk spend what they have, and lead hugely extravagant lifestyles.HYUFD said:
He has a net worth of $200 million so could never work another day in his life and still have plenty to spareTheScreamingEagles said:Called it the other day.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/13247534666449633280 -
It's 50/50 IMO.Casino_Royale said:How likely is it that Biden breaches 52%+ of the vote once everything is in?
I think he's at 50.5% at the moment and I could see him getting damn close once California and all the absentees are in.
It's 3.15 on Betfair. Following a tip from @Quincel on Twitter a while back I've put a couple of ponies on it.
It feels like it's more like evens.0 -
After the other night I don't think anyone would ever again dare go against one of your tipsCasino_Royale said:How likely is it that Biden breaches 52%+ of the vote once everything is in?
I think he's at 50.5% at the moment and I could see him getting damn close once California and all the absentees are in.
It's 3.15 on Betfair. Following a tip from @Quincel on Twitter a while back I've put a couple of ponies on it.
It feels like it's more like evens.
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Portland really needs serious action...the violence is still going every night and they are targeting elected officials for daring to vote the wrong way.
The group gathered on North Holman Street at the home of Portland City Commissioner Dan Ryan. While there, individuals broke a window, threw burning flares and paint filled balloons at the home, and broke potted plants.
https://flashalert.net/id/MCSO/1398160 -
And not only in USA.Casino_Royale said:
An awful lot of truth in that.Andy_JS said:0 -
CNN still have it as 253 which is really silly. 306+ is pretty much nailed on now.
Have Fox called it yet? I wonder who will call it first?0 -
UK LLTA data
Cases by specimen date
Cases by specimen date scaled to 100k population
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