On the allegation about Biden's votes suddenly jumping by thousands of votes when Trump's doesn't: unclear if this is right, but even if it is, I don't think it's suspicious. Surely the normal thing to do in a manual count would be to catalogue the votes for a given candidate in chunks of (say) 1000, then put ten of those together in chunks of ten thousand, and periodically add batches of those ten-thousand chunks to your overall count.
If true then that explains it, but is there any evidence that this happened? I didn't see any similar jumps for Trump in any state or for Biden in non-marginals.
Look, I actually don't really care whether Trump wins or not, he's not my President and I'm up if it turns out the way it looks as though it is.
But what really gets me is the hypocrisy of those on here who say the likes of @DAlexander is pedalling conspiracy theories etc etc but, if a 200% turnout happened in a heavily Republican area that swung a state election, would be screaming at the top of their voices about the election is rigged, it's a travesty etc etc. We would be getting detailed explanations about how democracy is in danger etc etc.
Same point @isam made re people criticising Trump for dragging this through the courts when the Democrats have been using the impeachment process to remove an elected President because they didn't like him. It was as bad as the sh1t with Bill Clinton. Jesus, you even had protestors with votive candles to Robert Mueller.
Just admit it, you want him out and any means will do. Great if it is done democratically but you would be quite happy to accept fraud involved if it got the outcome you wanted.
But the same hypocrisy runs both ways too.
There's been no criticism from the same people who are so exercised over this, than over the attempts to prevent mailed ballots being delivered, to the extent that a Republican appointed Judge is demanding to know why his order to the USPS to stop sitting on ballots was disregarded.
And, by the way, that's definitely missing ballots, rather than theoretically fraudulent ballots.
Strictly speaking they are not all 'definitely missing' so much as definitely unaccounted for.
Whether you accept the USPS explanation in its entirety is a matter of judgment (especially considering what has gone on in the organisation recently), but there is no hard evidence that all those ballots are missing. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/politics/usps-ballots.html ...Roughly 300,000 ballots that the Postal Service says it processed showed no scan confirming their delivery to ballot-counting sites, according to data filed recently in federal court in Washington, D.C., leaving voter-rights advocates concerned. Postal officials said that just because a ballot never received a final scan before going out for delivery, it did not mean that it wasn’t delivered. A machine scanning ballots for final processing can sometimes miss ballots that are stuck together or have smudged bar codes. And hand-sorted ballots typically do not receive a final scan before delivery...
On the allegation about Biden's votes suddenly jumping by thousands of votes when Trump's doesn't: unclear if this is right, but even if it is, I don't think it's suspicious. Surely the normal thing to do in a manual count would be to catalogue the votes for a given candidate in chunks of (say) 1000, then put ten of those together in chunks of ten thousand, and periodically add batches of those ten-thousand chunks to your overall count.
If true then that explains it, but is there any evidence that this happened? I didn't see any similar jumps for Trump in any state or for Biden in non-marginals.
Look, I actually don't really care whether Trump wins or not, .
L O L !
Well, actually I do. The meltdown on here would be epic.
I can imagine crying into your kale salad
There is something to be said for that. Goodness only knows what the americna left would have done in that situation.
The other thing I've noticed about American elections is that the counts are very partisan in a ways ours are not.
I've been to so many counts, and there's a sense of bonhomie and relief that it is over, and there's nothing more you can do.
The only bits of nastiness/kerfuffle was back in 2008/09 when the BNP kicked off and didn't want to share a stage with the winning (non white) candidates and a few years ago the Kipper delaying the result because their egos wanted more votes and they were contesting every rejected ballot papers, papers no returning officer in the country would acept.
I dont know last year was involved in a Council Ward count that was tied, 1st recount was tied LAB/LD agreed that a 2nd recount would be final and if still tied a coin would be tossed to decide
2ND RECOUNT ENDED IN A LAB WIN BY 1
Not much bonne amis from our LD opponents who stormed off.
I think some of those speculating on Trump's future if (once?) he loses have forgotten the protections and other benefits the US awards to past presidents. He is, for example, "Mr President" for life, and maintains his armed guard.
It seems every time Trump looks like he might have a chance there is a massive delay for no reason then a big dump of Biden votes.
Because the GOP controlled PA legislature kept up daft rules like secrecy envelopes, and no vote being able to be tabulated before the day starts. Trump also discouraged his supporters from using VBM. And he's absolubtely despised in Philadelphia in particular.
It's not just that it is slow, it is a slow but steady speed and then suddenly stops completely for a few hours.
Georgia hasn't changed for hours now.
What time is it in Georgia?
It's always breaktime with how slow they are, so middle of the night makes little difference.
Nate Silver calculates that votes yet to come in Georgia are from counties that lean on average 19 points more to the Democrats than the rest of the state. He concludes that on the basis of 61,000 outstanding votes overtaking Trump looks achievable for Biden
I think some of those speculating on Trump's future if (once?) he loses have forgotten the protections and other benefits the US awards to past presidents. He is, for example, "Mr President" for life, and maintains his armed guard.
I don't know why I hate the american habit of referring people by their most senior held office, after they no longer hold it, but I really do. Maybe it's because whilst people are unlikely to forget who the president is, its very confusing for me to know if the person referred to as Governor, or Senator still holds that office or not.
So Philly officials (who i trust) say there are 120K votes left to be counted there. so if those go (worst case) 3 to 1 to Biden thats +60K off the lead. Still dont beleive there are nearly 600K (The 700k figure quoted less 120 in Philly) uncounted mail votes elsewhere but who knows,
There were reports that Republican districts were refusing to count mail ballots without a court order. It’s possible they haven’t even reported them and they are missing from the numbers.
The other thing I've noticed about American elections is that the counts are very partisan in a ways ours are not.
I've been to so many counts, and there's a sense of bonhomie and relief that it is over, and there's nothing more you can do.
The only bits of nastiness/kerfuffle was back in 2008/09 when the BNP kicked off and didn't want to share a stage with the winning (non white) candidates and a few years ago the Kipper delaying the result because their egos wanted more votes and they were contesting every rejected ballot papers, papers no returning officer in the country would acept.
In my count (first time ever) last year, my opponent even intervened when the counter accidentally put two ballots cast for me into his tray. (He did say, "Looking at the numbers so far, I don't think it's going to make much difference, mind you...")
(I returned the favour by being very tolerant on a couple of ambiguous ballots later on)
The other thing I've noticed about American elections is that the counts are very partisan in a ways ours are not.
I've been to so many counts, and there's a sense of bonhomie and relief that it is over, and there's nothing more you can do.
The only bits of nastiness/kerfuffle was back in 2008/09 when the BNP kicked off and didn't want to share a stage with the winning (non white) candidates and a few years ago the Kipper delaying the result because their egos wanted more votes and they were contesting every rejected ballot papers, papers no returning officer in the country would acept.
I dont know last year was involved in a Council Ward count that was tied, 1st recount was tied LAB/LD agreed that a 2nd recount would be final and if still tied a coin would be tossed to decide
2ND RECOUNT ENDED IN A LAB WIN BY 1
Not much bonne amis from our LD opponents who stormed off.
LOL - GA moves onto provisional ballots tomorrow and then military ballots after that.
You know what that means - the 61k ballots still to count are not the whole story - there will be more!
It was 25k more, then 50k, then 65k, now more......
You can see Trump rubbing his hands when he sees this. I believe things are being processed legally and properly in pretty much all cases, but,,,,,you can see how this varied information constantly changing on important matters play into his narrative.
Surely once we blow the current mist away Biden will have won this fairly comfortably.
Its funny how people were saying for ages "don't overreact to early votes since the on the day GOP votes will be counted first in the key states" only for everyone to lose their mind at first when that happened!
Its turning out as a pretty solid and comfortable Biden victory once all the votes are counted.
I wish I had remembered that on the night! I baled out of my Biden position to stop a potential £1,400 loss on Trump. I'm now £30 down on that bet rather than several hundred up.
I've learned a new principle. Bias your betting to the right wing populists. They often surprise. On that basis, I've taken a position on Trump in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona (and Georgia) If I lose the lot, then at least Biden is home with 300+ ECs. But if only one of them surprises then I'm in the green. (Takes two surprises if it includes Georgia). I'll see how my new method works.
LOL - GA moves onto provisional ballots tomorrow and then military ballots after that.
You know what that means - the 61k ballots still to count are not the whole story - there will be more!
Probably not that many, though.
The ballots described in the Slate article I posted upthread (which I think would fall into the provisional category) were said to total maybe 3000. And none of those will be 'cured', and therefore counted, unless the individual voters produce affidavits that they are their ballots. Do we have a definition of what 'provisional ballots' includes ?
(edit - the Nate Cohen tweet just upthread seems to confirm the numbers are quite small.)
LOL - GA moves onto provisional ballots tomorrow and then military ballots after that.
You know what that means - the 61k ballots still to count are not the whole story - there will be more!
It was 25k more, then 50k, then 65k, now more......
You can see Trump rubbing his hands when he sees this. I believe things are being processed legally and properly in pretty much all cases, but,,,,,you can see how this varied information constantly changing on important matters play into his narrative.
Georgia has a famously Republican Secretary of State giving us those numbers...
Its over in Georgia SOS office now says over 61k still left in GA
Biden has to be better than the 1.5 available on BF
It’s like election officials (of all parties) are just trolling Trump. Offering low numbers of outstanding ballots to give him a chance and then just revising them upwards every couple of hours.
Presumably they have to wait for the morning post before updating the numbers. 😅
For the next Presidential election I propose sending the counters from Sunderland to all the key states to train, conduct, and oversee the vote counting.
We can count 32 million votes in a few hours, so get your fingers out America.
You're assuming, rather rashly, that the good people of Sunderland will be free to travel by then.
On the allegation about Biden's votes suddenly jumping by thousands of votes when Trump's doesn't: unclear if this is right, but even if it is, I don't think it's suspicious. Surely the normal thing to do in a manual count would be to catalogue the votes for a given candidate in chunks of (say) 1000, then put ten of those together in chunks of ten thousand, and periodically add batches of those ten-thousand chunks to your overall count.
If true then that explains it, but is there any evidence that this happened? I didn't see any similar jumps for Trump in any state or for Biden in non-marginals.
Look, I actually don't really care whether Trump wins or not, he's not my President and I'm up if it turns out the way it looks as though it is.
But what really gets me is the hypocrisy of those on here who say the likes of @DAlexander is pedalling conspiracy theories etc etc but, if a 200% turnout happened in a heavily Republican area that swung a state election, would be screaming at the top of their voices about the election is rigged, it's a travesty etc etc. We would be getting detailed explanations about how democracy is in danger etc etc.
Same point @isam made re people criticising Trump for dragging this through the courts when the Democrats have been using the impeachment process to remove an elected President because they didn't like him. It was as bad as the sh1t with Bill Clinton. Jesus, you even had protestors with votive candles to Robert Mueller.
Just admit it, you want him out and any means will do. Great if it is done democratically but you would be quite happy to accept fraud involved if it got the outcome you wanted.
But the same hypocrisy runs both ways too.
There's been no criticism from the same people who are so exercised over this, than over the attempts to prevent mailed ballots being delivered, to the extent that a Republican appointed Judge is demanding to know why his order to the USPS to stop sitting on ballots was disregarded.
"when the Democrats have been using the impeachment process to remove an elected President because they didn't like him." Not quite the case, the Dems really tried not to bring impeachment proceedings against Trump, Pelosi kept truning down those Dems that wanted to, but when the President asked a foreign power to interfere in the US Election they had no choice.
The whistleblower, who we now know was a member of the CIA and detailed to the National Security Council, claimed that a phone call in July 2019 between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: "In the course of my official duties, I have received information from multiple U.S. Government officials that the President of the United States is using the power of his office to solicit interference from a foreign country in the 2020 U.S. election. This interference includes, among other things, pressuring a foreign country to investigate one of the President’s main domestic political rivals. The President’s personal lawyer, Mr. Rudolph Giuliani, is a central figure in this effort. Attorney General Barr appears to be involved as well." The whistleblower, who we now know was a member of the CIA and detailed to the National Security Council, claimed that a phone call in July 2019 between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
The other thing I've noticed about American elections is that the counts are very partisan in a ways ours are not.
I've been to so many counts, and there's a sense of bonhomie and relief that it is over, and there's nothing more you can do.
The only bits of nastiness/kerfuffle was back in 2008/09 when the BNP kicked off and didn't want to share a stage with the winning (non white) candidates and a few years ago the Kipper delaying the result because their egos wanted more votes and they were contesting every rejected ballot papers, papers no returning officer in the country would acept.
I dont know last year was involved in a Council Ward count that was tied, 1st recount was tied LAB/LD agreed that a 2nd recount would be final and if still tied a coin would be tossed to decide
2ND RECOUNT ENDED IN A LAB WIN BY 1
Not much bonne amis from our LD opponents who stormed off.
For the next Presidential election I propose sending the counters from Sunderland to all the key states to train, conduct, and oversee the vote counting.
We can count 32 million votes in a few hours, so get your fingers out America.
You're assuming, rather rashly, that the good people of Sunderland will be free to travel by then.
Indeed, the other problem is that will the Americans be able to understand the Geordie accent?
Surely once we blow the current mist away Biden will have won this fairly comfortably.
Its funny how people were saying for ages "don't overreact to early votes since the on the day GOP votes will be counted first in the key states" only for everyone to lose their mind at first when that happened!
Its turning out as a pretty solid and comfortable Biden victory once all the votes are counted.
I wish I had remembered that on the night! I baled out of my Biden position to stop a potential £1,400 loss on Trump. I'm now £30 down on that bet rather than several hundred up.
I've learned a new principle. Bias your betting to the right wing populists. They often surprise. On that basis, I've taken a position on Trump in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona (and Georgia) If I lose the lot, then at least Biden is home with 300+ ECs. But if only one of them surprises then I'm in the green. (Takes two surprises if it includes Georgia). I'll see how my new method works.
Actually, I'd be wary of that principle.
The only principle worth sticking to is challenging your reasoning and confirmation bias *whatever* the situation is, and speaking and listening as widely as you can outside your own echo chamber, otherwise you'll always end up fighting the last war.
LOL - GA moves onto provisional ballots tomorrow and then military ballots after that.
You know what that means - the 61k ballots still to count are not the whole story - there will be more!
It was 25k more, then 50k, then 65k, now more......
Not many, though. Thing is, there will be an audit trail for all these ballots; the people who run the process in GA are Republicans. They wrote the electoral rules to advantage themselves, as we know from past elections and reports (eg polling stations in Democratic strongholds being relocated the day before the vote) and from this election. They are overseeing this process, and there are audit trails and observers from both parties.
Just how is it that the Democrats are managing to manipulate it in the way that you suggest ? Or could it simply be that the rules allowed for postal voting, and those ballots don't get added to the total of ballots until they start getting counted ?
But I was told on here that there were no unexplained delays all the time.
I suppose the thing is that it’s just very unusual for the complete counting of votes to be time pressured. They count a load on election night, the networks call the state and the next President, and everyone moves on, whilst the complete counting and certification is just done at a leisurely pace in combination with people’s normal jobs etc. With a formal deadline for completion of weeks into the future.
It appears that many of the States just haven’t woken up to the fact that they people are actually officially waiting on them for answers this time!
The other thing I've noticed about American elections is that the counts are very partisan in a ways ours are not.
I've been to so many counts, and there's a sense of bonhomie and relief that it is over, and there's nothing more you can do.
The only bits of nastiness/kerfuffle was back in 2008/09 when the BNP kicked off and didn't want to share a stage with the winning (non white) candidates and a few years ago the Kipper delaying the result because their egos wanted more votes and they were contesting every rejected ballot papers, papers no returning officer in the country would acept.
Candidates and agents of all parties are often pretty similar kinds of people, with similar interests, and who bump into each other a lot. I find them to be more pleasant with each other by far than their activists and supporters would be. Some local politics round my way has gotten strained mostly because a bunch of new people in one party are using more antagonistic tactics when the old guard, who know the opposite side a good people, think that's crappy.
There's a bit of rose-coloured glasses going on here. In the 2010 GE, my wife stood in a new Hampshire constituency (all of 70 miles from our house), and lost to the Tory George Hollingbery who went on to become a junior minster. After a horrendously protracted 8-hour count, the declaration was made at 6.30 am.
Her polite post declaration 60 second speech ("my thanks to all our workers and to the returning officer....") was constantly interrupted by a drunk Tory activist with chants of "Go home you carpetbagger". Not a single Tory attempted to silence him. There was no apology from the successful Tory candidate - an Oxford contemporary of Boris Johnson.
At some point nastiness infected a certain stratum of the Tory party - who, in my experience, are these days the first to whine at being criticised, and the first to counter with ad hominem smears. And it's interesting that in our home constituency, the slightly younger Tory MP NEVER mixes at counts with the other parties, and now avoids any kind of human contact during campaigns.
The other thing I've noticed about American elections is that the counts are very partisan in a ways ours are not.
I've been to so many counts, and there's a sense of bonhomie and relief that it is over, and there's nothing more you can do.
The only bits of nastiness/kerfuffle was back in 2008/09 when the BNP kicked off and didn't want to share a stage with the winning (non white) candidates and a few years ago the Kipper delaying the result because their egos wanted more votes and they were contesting every rejected ballot papers, papers no returning officer in the country would acept.
Usually yes, but I've been involved in a couple of count shenanigans but maybe that's just me. When I ran for council in 2015 in an unlikely for Labour seat I lost, went to find the two winning Independent councillors and shook their hands offering my congratulations. Not long after His Eminence the Mayor-for-life of Thornaby comes over with a coterie in tow.
At this point I had never met him in person. "Who built your house?" was the first thing he said to me. "Erm Barratts...?" I replied. "No, I did" he said and then proceeded to berate me about bloody Labour always acting against the interests of the town. "No, I'm sure the cheque went to Barratts" I responded along with "were Labour acting against our interests when you were a Labour councillor then?".
At the 2019 count the campaign had got so nasty that he'd posted a rant on Facebook at 3am saying that Mrs RP and I didn't understand Thornaby as we weren't born here and "would do better off back where they came from". Followed on polling day by a drive by megaphone argument between him, us and various residents. In front of the local funeral directors who were forming up a procession. So we formed a protective bubble and did our best to stay away as every time he saw us he marched over and started ranting until he got told to Shut Up.
However. It is a democracy. That he defeated Mrs RP and myself so heavily last year made us chuckle. Oh dear Thornaby, you voted for *that*. Could be worse. In neighbouring Ingleby Barwick they elected a man who claimed stormy weather was God's punishment for gay marriage.
The number discrepancies in PA are killing me. And not being able to access the states result site and having to rely on 3rd parties is beyond frustrating.
When did 'Conservatives' get re-branded to 'Rishi Sunak'? Don't get me wrong, it has a certain ring to it
During EOTHO restaurants round here all had posters of Rishi in their windows. I do not know if this was the Treasury's doing, or just what each individual restaurateur did.
For the next Presidential election I propose sending the counters from Sunderland to all the key states to train, conduct, and oversee the vote counting.
We can count 32 million votes in a few hours, so get your fingers out America.
You're assuming, rather rashly, that the good people of Sunderland will be free to travel by then.
Indeed, the other problem is that will the Americans be able to understand the Geordie accent?
Wtf is a provisional ballot? 'Only count this if it's close'?
On day registrations iirc.
Not the same, and I think the rules vary from state to state. In NV it is people who have been excluded from the electoral roll and who have not otherwise voted who think they are eligible to vote
For the next Presidential election I propose sending the counters from Sunderland to all the key states to train, conduct, and oversee the vote counting.
We can count 32 million votes in a few hours, so get your fingers out America.
You're assuming, rather rashly, that the good people of Sunderland will be free to travel by then.
Indeed, the other problem is that will the Americans be able to understand the Geordie accent?
Most of us in the UK cannot.
And you, sir, cannot tell the difference between a Geordie accent and a Mackem accent!
LOL - GA moves onto provisional ballots tomorrow and then military ballots after that.
You know what that means - the 61k ballots still to count are not the whole story - there will be more!
It was 25k more, then 50k, then 65k, now more......
Not many, though. Thing is, there will be an audit trail for all these ballots; the people who run the process in GA are Republicans. They wrote the electoral rules to advantage themselves, as we know from past elections and reports (eg polling stations in Democratic strongholds being relocated the day before the vote) and from this election. They are overseeing this process, and there are audit trails and observers from both parties.
Just how is it that the Democrats are managing to manipulate it in the way that you suggest ? Or could it simply be that the rules allowed for postal voting, and those ballots don't get added to the total of ballots until they start getting counted ?
Well you make a good point and I had a look and couldn't find who exactly runs the elections at a county level in Georgia.
However for Michigan it is completely decentralised, so presumably you'll have Republicans and Democrats running their local counties. So you can still have a Republican run state with counties run by Democrats during the election.
Wtf is a provisional ballot? 'Only count this if it's close'?
I asked the same question, but I think it might include (for example) postal ballots where the voter forget to sign the security envelope. Such a ballot can be cured if the voter produces an affidavit that that is their vote - and the deadline for doing so in GA is tomorrow.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.
A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.
Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.
Some stats nerd has kindly worked out the figures based on whats remaining and on the current % of votes for those counties that have come in, it suggests a narrow Biden win, but ofc its only as estimate https://twitter.com/marcusowens/status/1324370793355218944
Amazing how hard some soi-disant intellectuals find it to understand that spreading a deadly disease affects other people, not just the person doing the spreading.
Comments
Whether you accept the USPS explanation in its entirety is a matter of judgment (especially considering what has gone on in the organisation recently), but there is no hard evidence that all those ballots are missing.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/politics/usps-ballots.html
...Roughly 300,000 ballots that the Postal Service says it processed showed no scan confirming their delivery to ballot-counting sites, according to data filed recently in federal court in Washington, D.C., leaving voter-rights advocates concerned.
Postal officials said that just because a ballot never received a final scan before going out for delivery, it did not mean that it wasn’t delivered. A machine scanning ballots for final processing can sometimes miss ballots that are stuck together or have smudged bar codes. And hand-sorted ballots typically do not receive a final scan before delivery...
You know what that means - the 61k ballots still to count are not the whole story - there will be more!
2ND RECOUNT ENDED IN A LAB WIN BY 1
Not much bonne amis from our LD opponents who stormed off.
I would be shocked if 61k doesnt close the 18k with Military to decide next Tuesday
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1324374521286189056?s=20
(I returned the favour by being very tolerant on a couple of ambiguous ballots later on)
https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1324374362561126401?s=20
I've learned a new principle. Bias your betting to the right wing populists. They often surprise. On that basis, I've taken a position on Trump in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona (and Georgia) If I lose the lot, then at least Biden is home with 300+ ECs. But if only one of them surprises then I'm in the green. (Takes two surprises if it includes Georgia). I'll see how my new method works.
The ballots described in the Slate article I posted upthread (which I think would fall into the provisional category) were said to total maybe 3000. And none of those will be 'cured', and therefore counted, unless the individual voters produce affidavits that they are their ballots.
Do we have a definition of what 'provisional ballots' includes ?
(edit - the Nate Cohen tweet just upthread seems to confirm the numbers are quite small.)
Biden 815
Trump 373
Not as high Biden % as recent numbers!
Usually it covers mostly people who turn up to vote on the day and aren't on the register or if their postal hasn't turned up
Not quite the case, the Dems really tried not to bring impeachment proceedings against Trump, Pelosi kept truning down those Dems that wanted to, but when the President asked a foreign power to interfere in the US Election they had no choice.
The whistleblower, who we now know was a member of the CIA and detailed to the National Security Council, claimed that a phone call in July 2019 between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky:
"In the course of my official duties, I have received information from multiple U.S. Government officials that the President of the United States is using the power of his office to solicit interference from a foreign country in the 2020 U.S. election. This interference includes, among other things, pressuring a foreign country to investigate one of the President’s main domestic political rivals. The President’s personal lawyer, Mr. Rudolph Giuliani, is a central figure in this effort. Attorney General Barr appears to be involved as well."
The whistleblower, who we now know was a member of the CIA and detailed to the National Security Council, claimed that a phone call in July 2019 between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
IIIIIIIII. IIIIIIIII
IIIIIIIII. IIIIIIIII <----can't win here
2056 . . 2057
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324375334653988864
Most of us in the UK cannot.
The only principle worth sticking to is challenging your reasoning and confirmation bias *whatever* the situation is, and speaking and listening as widely as you can outside your own echo chamber, otherwise you'll always end up fighting the last war.
Thing is, there will be an audit trail for all these ballots; the people who run the process in GA are Republicans. They wrote the electoral rules to advantage themselves, as we know from past elections and reports (eg polling stations in Democratic strongholds being relocated the day before the vote) and from this election. They are overseeing this process, and there are audit trails and observers from both parties.
Just how is it that the Democrats are managing to manipulate it in the way that you suggest ?
Or could it simply be that the rules allowed for postal voting, and those ballots don't get added to the total of ballots until they start getting counted ?
It appears that many of the States just haven’t woken up to the fact that they people are actually officially waiting on them for answers this time!
In the 2010 GE, my wife stood in a new Hampshire constituency (all of 70 miles from our house), and lost to the Tory George Hollingbery who went on to become a junior minster. After a horrendously protracted 8-hour count, the declaration was made at 6.30 am.
Her polite post declaration 60 second speech ("my thanks to all our workers and to the returning officer....") was constantly interrupted by a drunk Tory activist with chants of "Go home you carpetbagger". Not a single Tory attempted to silence him. There was no apology from the successful Tory candidate - an Oxford contemporary of Boris Johnson.
At some point nastiness infected a certain stratum of the Tory party - who, in my experience, are these days the first to whine at being criticised, and the first to counter with ad hominem smears. And it's interesting that in our home constituency, the slightly younger Tory MP NEVER mixes at counts with the other parties, and now avoids any kind of human contact during campaigns.
At this point I had never met him in person. "Who built your house?" was the first thing he said to me. "Erm Barratts...?" I replied. "No, I did" he said and then proceeded to berate me about bloody Labour always acting against the interests of the town. "No, I'm sure the cheque went to Barratts" I responded along with "were Labour acting against our interests when you were a Labour councillor then?".
At the 2019 count the campaign had got so nasty that he'd posted a rant on Facebook at 3am saying that Mrs RP and I didn't understand Thornaby as we weren't born here and "would do better off back where they came from". Followed on polling day by a drive by megaphone argument between him, us and various residents. In front of the local funeral directors who were forming up a procession. So we formed a protective bubble and did our best to stay away as every time he saw us he marched over and started ranting until he got told to Shut Up.
However. It is a democracy. That he defeated Mrs RP and myself so heavily last year made us chuckle. Oh dear Thornaby, you voted for *that*. Could be worse. In neighbouring Ingleby Barwick they elected a man who claimed stormy weather was God's punishment for gay marriage.
Also, the survery probably asked about Holyrood as well. And indyref. Which include 16/17yos.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/upshot/biden-election-results-votes.html
Clayton County 7k
forsyth 5k
fulton 11k
Gwinnett 7k
4 out of 5 Dem
2 biggest are cica 80/20
Anyhow, a women in Alabama liked my accent!
However for Michigan it is completely decentralised, so presumably you'll have Republicans and Democrats running their local counties. So you can still have a Republican run state with counties run by Democrats during the election.
#dontsleeponak
"Owing to technical difficulties, we have not received the data for England. We will update the service as soon as possible."
https://twitter.com/fleccas/status/1324216584219623424
https://twitter.com/marcusowens/status/1324370793355218944
CNN: The Democratic camp are saying they will win PA by a sizeable margin
CNN: The Trump campaign team think that they have lost but say "reality hasn't yet sunk in" for Trump himself