If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.
A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.
Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.
🙄 That's the position of most "Remainers".
It isn't in your case, sadly.
Yes, it is. It's exactly what I think. You just categorise all "Remainers" into one "identity politics" block, exactly like the people you detest.
Nope, wrong. There are pragmatic Remainers, and there are intolerant Remoaners.
You are one of the latter - I've never read you couch your views as per the former.
You're too emotional.
I won't take lectures on being "emotional" from you, as you're the most emotional person on here. You get upset when someone posts an EU flag emoji.
I'm not even a "Remainer" any more. We're out of the EU and that's that. I've moved on, you clearly haven't.
Lol. You are young. You might grow up one day. Until then it's a waste of my time engaging with you.
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
I think Trump and Brexit 2016 shows just how fair our democracies are, relatively speaking.
In both instances there was every reason for a "rig" conspiracy to take wind, particularly since the Establishment was so clearly wanting Hillary and Remain. Indeed, I saw several Leave voters go into polling stations with pens convinced that MI5 would otherwise change their pencil votes, and determined to make their mark. In the USA, others though that Trump would be obstructed by the Republican and Democratic establishments co-operating to block him.
In reality, both won through relatively small-ish margins (which is where you'd expect fraud to be mostly effective, since you can massage and disguise it and argue it is MoE) but in both cases all the votes were fairly counted and the narrow victories recorded and held.
That gave me renewed confidence in the power of democracy in the UK and USA (you can really vote for anything, and you will get it) which is why Trump should stop his BS now and gracefully concede.
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
It mentions Biden underperforming in Clark County, on an earlier message I explained the issue of the Latino vote there voting Trump due to issues with tourism/covid factors
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.
And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).
If I was an American in a swing state I'd be tempted by Biden, but I'd definitely vote Republican for the House and possibly for the Senate too, depending on the candidate.
I can't stand Nancy Pelosi, who's a very left-wing San Francisco Liberal. It'd be like me voting for Glenda Jackson.
You really wouldn't want to be one of Trump's lawyers, would you?
No shortage of work though.
Client: sue everyone! You: you know you'll almost certainly lose and even if you won it wouldn't be enough to swing enough states in your favour right? Client: just sue dammit. You: okay, the bill's the same. *sues* *loses* You: here's the bill
If Biden does win Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, then those challenges will end up being slapped down pretty quickly. No one is going to want to be associated with an obvious loser (except Rudy Guiliani, of course).
It's much more of an issue if there's just one state in it.
Trump just looks like a sore loser now. And I feel he will look like that not just to almost all Democratic voters, but also to a meaningful percentage of Republican voters.
The person going for assisted dying will not infect anyone else with assisted dying. Is Hitchens really unable to understand the issue on infection and spread?
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.
And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).
If I was an American in a swing state I'd be tempted by Biden, but I'd definitely vote Republican for the House and possibly for the Senate too, depending on the candidate.
I can't stand Nancy Pelosi, who's a very left-wing San Francisco Liberal. It'd be like me voting for Glenda Jackson.
Clayton provides another 5k reduction off the total in its 7k
Chatham 3k or 4k reduction
So we have 18-10-5-4 = -1
Biden ahead after those 3 imo
Other counties have 27 k votes as they are mail likely bidens gaining those
Biden by more than 5k overall
Right Fulton just submitted 6k out of its 11k it reduced the lead by 3800 i forecast in this post earlier the full 11k would impact the lead by 7k to 8k bringing lead to 10k or 11k pretty much spot on.
You really wouldn't want to be one of Trump's lawyers, would you?
No shortage of work though.
Client: sue everyone! You: you know you'll almost certainly lose and even if you won it wouldn't be enough to swing enough states in your favour right? Client: just sue dammit. You: okay, the bill's the same.
You: here's the bill
Here's the thing.
The Republican Party won't want to waste its precious financial resources on an obviously doomed court case. They'll say "Mr Trump, if you want to pay for it, go for it". That will require Trump to tap his own supporters (as he avoids spending his own money as much as possible).
I think Trump and Brexit 2016 shows just how fair our democracies are, relatively speaking.
In both instances there was every reason for a "rig" conspiracy to take wind, particularly since the Establishment was so clearly wanting Hillary and Remain. Indeed, I saw several Leave voters go into polling stations with pens convinced that MI5 would otherwise change their pencil votes, and determined to make their mark. In the USA, others though that Trump would be obstructed by the Republican and Democratic establishments co-operating to block him.
In reality, both won through relatively small-ish margins (which is where you'd expect fraud to be mostly effective, since you can massage and disguise it and argue it is MoE) but in both cases all the votes were fairly counted and the narrow victories recorded and held.
That gave me renewed confidence in the power of democracy in the UK and USA (you can really vote for anything, and you will get it) which is why Trump should stop his BS now and gracefully concede.
Don't be daft! Its not the establishment counting votes or checking them. And if it was they'd only get Dido to fix it and where would that get them!
Absentee ballots which fall within the provisional ballot definition:
https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2014/title-21/chapter-2/article-10/section-21-2-386/ (D) An elector who registered to vote by mail, but did not comply with subsection (c) of Code Section 21-2-220, and who votes for the first time in this state by absentee ballot shall include with his or her application for an absentee ballot or in the outer oath envelope of his or her absentee ballot either one of the forms of identification listed in subsection (a) of Code Section 21-2-417 or a copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document that shows the name and address of such elector. If such elector does not provide any of the forms of identification listed in this subparagraph with his or her application for an absentee ballot or with the absentee ballot, such absentee ballot shall be deemed to be a provisional ballot and such ballot shall only be counted if the registrars are able to verify current and valid identification of the elector as provided in this subparagraph within the time period for verifying provisional ballots pursuant to Code Section 21-2-419.
The percentage of these which end up getting validated by tomorrow's deadline is possibly quite small.
Clayton provides another 5k reduction off the total in its 7k
Chatham 3k or 4k reduction
So we have 18-10-5-4 = -1
Biden ahead after those 3 imo
Other counties have 27 k votes as they are mail likely bidens gaining those
Biden by more than 5k overall
Right Fulton just submitted 6k out of its 11k it reduced the lead by 3800 i forecast in this post earlier the full 11k would impact the lead by 7k to 8k bringing lead to 10k or 11k pretty much spot on.
The person going for assisted dying will not infect anyone else with assisted dying. Is Hitchens really unable to understand the issue on infection and spread?
Seems fair enough. Must be a reasonable chance that Trump shafted him at some point.
There are replies to that Twitter thread that suggest an identity mix up with a younger person of the same name. It's being challenged and investigated. The system is working, this is not evidence of widespread fraud, but of the contrary. See: https://mobile.twitter.com/Jay_Swizzzy/status/1324327801596583936 (And other tweets in the thread)
So, how do we think it'd be going if Hillary had been reselected?
I think whoever got the nomination in 2020 (probably not D Trump) would be cruising to victory.
Given how narrow the margins are in WI, MI and PA (where Biden has home state advantage) I think she'd have lost in the rust belt again but with an even bigger national vote lead discrepancy.
My previous view was that she would have beaten Trump this time. But what this election has told me is that although I was right to say he was toast, I was (sadly) wrong to expect a landslide rejection of him. I underestimated his enduring appeal. So what I now think is that most Dem candidates other than Biden would have lost on Tuesday and this includes Hillary.
From what I saw of him on the stump I should say Buttigieg would have been a better choice. Maybe Klobuchar too but I understand she had 'baggage'.
Warren would imo have made the best president but as a candidate Bernie is the interesting one to me. The consensus view outside the Left is that he would have crashed and burned. Frightened too many horses. But I'm not so sure. He has big charisma, blue collar appeal, and his aura is very much not that of snotty condescending liberal.
Alleghany County (Pittsburgh) paused for today due to legal challenge.
Only in America.
The lawyer teams have agreed not to count 29,000 of their votes until tomorrow; they appear to have been second ballot papers issued to people whose initial paper was incorrect in some way. They’ll be counted tomorrow.
They also have 6,000 ballots that are too creased to go through their counting machine, and they will be counted by hand tomorrow.
Nevertheless PA seems confident they will declare today. This suggests they know that Biden will win by more than this 35,000 across PA as a whole
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
It mentions Biden underperforming in Clark County, on an earlier message I explained the issue of the Latino vote there voting Trump due to issues with tourism/covid factors
I think Nevada is leans Republican. North Carolina is likely Republican. Georgia is leans Democrat Arizona is likely Democrat Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.
Alleghany County (Pittsburgh) paused for today due to legal challenge.
Only in America.
The lawyer teams have agreed not to count 29,000 of their votes until tomorrow; they appear to have been second ballot papers issued to people whose initial paper was incorrect in some way. They’ll be counted tomorrow.
They also have 6,000 ballots that are too creased to go through their counting machine, and they will be counted by hand tomorrow.
Nevertheless PA seems confident they will declare today. This suggests they know that Biden will win by more than this 35,000 across PA as a whole
Yes, on current rates, Philly and environs plus change from the backwoods will pretty roll him home regardless of the hold up in Pittsburgh.
I think Trump and Brexit 2016 shows just how fair our democracies are, relatively speaking.
In both instances there was every reason for a "rig" conspiracy to take wind, particularly since the Establishment was so clearly wanting Hillary and Remain. Indeed, I saw several Leave voters go into polling stations with pens convinced that MI5 would otherwise change their pencil votes, and determined to make their mark. In the USA, others though that Trump would be obstructed by the Republican and Democratic establishments co-operating to block him.
In reality, both won through relatively small-ish margins (which is where you'd expect fraud to be mostly effective, since you can massage and disguise it and argue it is MoE) but in both cases all the votes were fairly counted and the narrow victories recorded and held.
That gave me renewed confidence in the power of democracy in the UK and USA (you can really vote for anything, and you will get it) which is why Trump should stop his BS now and gracefully concede.
Brexit was not anti-establishment. It was at best a battle between establishments. The old vs. the new. The old won.
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
It mentions Biden underperforming in Clark County, on an earlier message I explained the issue of the Latino vote there voting Trump due to issues with tourism/covid factors
I think Nevada is leans Republican. North Carolina is likely Republican. Georgia is leans Democrat Arizona is likely Democrat Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.
I think you could be right.
Would be exactly 300 in the Electoral College if you are right.
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
It mentions Biden underperforming in Clark County, on an earlier message I explained the issue of the Latino vote there voting Trump due to issues with tourism/covid factors
I think Nevada is leans Republican. North Carolina is likely Republican. Georgia is leans Democrat Arizona is likely Democrat Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.
I think you could be right.
Would be exactly 300 in the Electoral College if you are right.
I would lose my bet with HYUFD if that comes in so I hope its not right.
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
It mentions Biden underperforming in Clark County, on an earlier message I explained the issue of the Latino vote there voting Trump due to issues with tourism/covid factors
I think Nevada is leans Republican. North Carolina is likely Republican. Georgia is leans Democrat Arizona is likely Democrat Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
It mentions Biden underperforming in Clark County, on an earlier message I explained the issue of the Latino vote there voting Trump due to issues with tourism/covid factors
I think Nevada is leans Republican. North Carolina is likely Republican. Georgia is leans Democrat Arizona is likely Democrat Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.
Though little doubt surely that he'll win the run off.
With only 2.3% between them, I'd say there is some doubt, but Perdue would certainly be favourite.
He's need to gain 0.00005% to win and surely if Biden is confirmed President by the run-off then GOPers will be more motivated to keep the Senate than people put off my Trump will be motivated.
Are there any scenarios where Harris wins the betfair market? Not sure why she is getting backed today? Just people getting rid of exposure or is there some complicated scenario involving a tie or something?
For those who believe in the deep state, the truth is far scarier. It easier to believe that there is some higher power. What if there isn't and this is it. What if it's on us and we are the best there is? Some people really can't handle that.
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
It mentions Biden underperforming in Clark County, on an earlier message I explained the issue of the Latino vote there voting Trump due to issues with tourism/covid factors
I think Nevada is leans Republican. North Carolina is likely Republican. Georgia is leans Democrat Arizona is likely Democrat Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.
I think your right, though Id put AZ more as leaning Dem , NV does surprise me but the figures coming out the last day or so about what was left , suggesting heavily mail still , which now we have actual state figures , shows is not the case so that gives Trump a very good chance now,
Though little doubt surely that he'll win the run off.
With only 2.3% between them, I'd say there is some doubt, but Perdue would certainly be favourite.
If the entire focus of the US is on that election, and the Senate hangs on it, you’d expect turnout could go even higher. So the question is which way the potential new voters might lean.
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
It mentions Biden underperforming in Clark County, on an earlier message I explained the issue of the Latino vote there voting Trump due to issues with tourism/covid factors
I think Nevada is leans Republican. North Carolina is likely Republican. Georgia is leans Democrat Arizona is likely Democrat Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.
I think you could be right.
Would be exactly 300 in the Electoral College if you are right.
I would lose my bet with HYUFD if that comes in so I hope its not right.
Are there any scenarios where Harris wins the betfair market? Not sure why she is getting backed today? Just people getting rid of exposure or is there some complicated scenario involving a tie or something?
Presumably if Biden kicks the bucket between now and inauguration
PA confirming they will declare a result “today”. Remembering it’s coming up to midday there now.
Wut, that's impossible given that ballots can arrive until Friday and some counties are holding off counting until Friday.
It's not technically impossible if the total number of possible outstanding ballots is less than the margin between the two candidates, but it seems unlikely.
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
It mentions Biden underperforming in Clark County, on an earlier message I explained the issue of the Latino vote there voting Trump due to issues with tourism/covid factors
I think Nevada is leans Republican. North Carolina is likely Republican. Georgia is leans Democrat Arizona is likely Democrat Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.
I think you could be right.
Would be exactly 300 in the Electoral College if you are right.
I would lose my bet with HYUFD if that comes in so I hope its not right.
What was the bet?
HYUFD said that in electoral college terms it would end tighter than 2016. I disagreed.
The person going for assisted dying will not infect anyone else with assisted dying. Is Hitchens really unable to understand the issue on infection and spread?
My copy (old) says the same. Odd that they could have missed out the most usual meaning, which was certainly in common currency well before my copy was printed.
(Oxford maths!)
You might be being a touch unfair in this case. I don't think I've actually used my shorter oxford dictionary for about 15 years, but there is something nice about referring to a book, even if it turns out, as in this case, to be shorter than advertised.
Though little doubt surely that he'll win the run off.
With only 2.3% between them, I'd say there is some doubt, but Perdue would certainly be favourite.
He's need to gain 0.00005% to win and surely if Biden is confirmed President by the run-off then GOPers will be more motivated to keep the Senate than people put off my Trump will be motivated.
The Dems can deploy the entire financial might of the party machine on Georgia though. GOTV, voter registration, the works.
Though little doubt surely that he'll win the run off.
With only 2.3% between them, I'd say there is some doubt, but Perdue would certainly be favourite.
He's need to gain 0.00005% to win and surely if Biden is confirmed President by the run-off then GOPers will be more motivated to keep the Senate than people put off my Trump will be motivated.
The Dems can deploy the entire financial might of the party machine on Georgia though. GOTV, voter registration, the works.
I think the Republicans probably have the better GOTV machinery in Georgia.
For those who believe in the deep state, the truth is far scarier. It easier to believe that there is some higher power. What if there isn't and this is it. What if it's on us and we are the best there is? Some people really can't handle that.
The good thing is that, once you zoom out to astronomical scales, we really are insignificant, so our fuck ups don't really matter one jot
The person going for assisted dying will not infect anyone else with assisted dying. Is Hitchens really unable to understand the issue on infection and spread?
My copy (old) says the same. Odd that they could have missed out the most usual meaning, which was certainly in common currency well before my copy was printed.
(Oxford maths!)
You might be being a touch unfair in this case. I don't think I've actually used my shorter oxford dictionary for about 15 years, but there is something nice about referring to a book, even if it turns out, as in this case, to be shorter than advertised.
It was part of a wider conversation when he was dissing the stats, not realising what it meant in that context.
Boris up. I presume to tell us to all be good and that will save Christmas.
People still watch this? Went crap after season 3.
You made it that far? I only got to end of season 1, then I knew the plot and all the media questions drove me to want to throw things at the telly like Jar Jar Binks in Star Wars.
This update will remind me to check Jon Ralstons twitter more often than every few hours! Last night all very positive on what's outstanding. An hour ago, he's far less certain about NV now the figures on what exactly is left to count (rather than assumed figures) have been given out. His thread explains exactly how things stand https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
It mentions Biden underperforming in Clark County, on an earlier message I explained the issue of the Latino vote there voting Trump due to issues with tourism/covid factors
I think Nevada is leans Republican. North Carolina is likely Republican. Georgia is leans Democrat Arizona is likely Democrat Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.
That's broadly with Betfair except Nevada. Dems are 1.2 there.
Am I being fair if I say that Biden's "achievement" so far is achieving miniscule swings in WI and MI, a slightly bigger step forward in Georgia and Texas (the latter being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things) and going backwards in Florida and possibly Nevada?
I know he's facing an incumbent rather than another challenger, but he doesn't seem to be doing materially better than Hillary, all things considered.
He's doing materially better than Hillary in the sense he's campaiged and won voters where it counts, and is therefore going to be President, but it's not really a slam dunk for the Democrats.
And another hugely notable aspect is that Republican senators are outperforming Donald Trump. He's a liability not an asset. Obvious really (except to HYUFD - sorry don't mean that to be caustic).
If I was an American in a swing state I'd be tempted by Biden, but I'd definitely vote Republican for the House and possibly for the Senate too, depending on the candidate.
I can't stand Nancy Pelosi, who's a very left-wing San Francisco Liberal. It'd be like me voting for Glenda Jackson.
TEMPTED?
C'mon.
It'd either be that, or third party. Trouble is.. I can't predict with 100% certainty how my politics would be if I was an American living in America, as to a British Conservative opining from over here.
Comments
Anyone?
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528
In both instances there was every reason for a "rig" conspiracy to take wind, particularly since the Establishment was so clearly wanting Hillary and Remain. Indeed, I saw several Leave voters go into polling stations with pens convinced that MI5 would otherwise change their pencil votes, and determined to make their mark. In the USA, others though that Trump would be obstructed by the Republican and Democratic establishments co-operating to block him.
In reality, both won through relatively small-ish margins (which is where you'd expect fraud to be mostly effective, since you can massage and disguise it and argue it is MoE) but in both cases all the votes were fairly counted and the narrow victories recorded and held.
That gave me renewed confidence in the power of democracy in the UK and USA (you can really vote for anything, and you will get it) which is why Trump should stop his BS now and gracefully concede.
Only in America.
C'mon.
You: you know you'll almost certainly lose and even if you won it wouldn't be enough to swing enough states in your favour right?
Client: just sue dammit.
You: okay, the bill's the same.
*sues*
*loses*
You: here's the bill
Edited for html
It's much more of an issue if there's just one state in it.
FFS.
The Republican Party won't want to waste its precious financial resources on an obviously doomed court case. They'll say "Mr Trump, if you want to pay for it, go for it". That will require Trump to tap his own supporters (as he avoids spending his own money as much as possible).
https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2014/title-21/chapter-2/article-10/section-21-2-386/
(D) An elector who registered to vote by mail, but did not comply with subsection (c) of Code Section 21-2-220, and who votes for the first time in this state by absentee ballot shall include with his or her application for an absentee ballot or in the outer oath envelope of his or her absentee ballot either one of the forms of identification listed in subsection (a) of Code Section 21-2-417 or a copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document that shows the name and address of such elector. If such elector does not provide any of the forms of identification listed in this subparagraph with his or her application for an absentee ballot or with the absentee ballot, such absentee ballot shall be deemed to be a provisional ballot and such ballot shall only be counted if the registrars are able to verify current and valid identification of the elector as provided in this subparagraph within the time period for verifying provisional ballots pursuant to Code Section 21-2-419.
The percentage of these which end up getting validated by tomorrow's deadline is possibly quite small.
Here's one of his other pandemic related bests.
https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1258671902329114624
No wonder the gullible believe his polemics.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jay_Swizzzy/status/1324327801596583936
(And other tweets in the thread)
They also have 6,000 ballots that are too creased to go through their counting machine, and they will be counted by hand tomorrow.
Nevertheless PA seems confident they will declare today. This suggests they know that Biden will win by more than this 35,000 across PA as a whole
North Carolina is likely Republican.
Georgia is leans Democrat
Arizona is likely Democrat
Pennsylvania is likely Democrat.
Though little doubt surely that he'll win the run off.
So the news is quite encouraging at the moment.
One piece of bad news for Dems from Fulton County was that they currently have zero military ballots although they can come in up to Tuesday
Would be exactly 300 in the Electoral College if you are right.
Quite relieving it's the other way round.
Senate up for grabs. Biden coat-tail effect could be a factor in that race?
https://twitter.com/JamesDuddridge/status/1324395533180510210
Nothing said on CNN.
2016 Trump won 306.
(Oxford maths!)
You might be being a touch unfair in this case. I don't think I've actually used my shorter oxford dictionary for about 15 years, but there is something nice about referring to a book, even if it turns out, as in this case, to be shorter than advertised.
WTAF.
Robeson County, NC precincts where Native Americans are a majority of voters:
2012
Obama - 59.4%
Romney - 39.2%
2020
Trump - 69.1%
Biden - 30.1%
5.0
?
But zero liquidity – ignore.
Barriers out for the MAGA nobs about to observe the count I presume
Whitty still trying to draw a graph steep enough on his powepoint slides.