WH2020 – With the counts continuing in several key states Biden is not yet claiming victory – politi
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It looks like there may be a flurry of new updates from the counting states coming in 4-5pm Uk time. I doubt we are going to hear much significant before then.0
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Absolutely true. That is what we are doing.CorrectHorseBattery said:When we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the future we want
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I often think you’d make a great LibDem.SouthamObserver said:
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.TOPPING said:
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.SouthamObserver said:In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.1 -
The 400k elsewhere break Dem even in the reddest counties.Barnesian said:
About 300K in Philly and the burbs and 400K elsewhere using the NYT stats.Pulpstar said:
If that 488k is in Philly and the burbs it's not a worry.theenglishborn said:
By live site are you getting that from electionreturns.pa.gov or from a news live site? Those stating its at 488k say there has been a delay auto updating the other live reporting sites hence they are showing old data.bigjohnowls said:Live site from PA says 763k left in PA
PA bloke on CNN predicts a 100k win for Biden0 -
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It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.0 -
when is 25k not 25k? when it's in georgia.
We could end up with Biden just winning WiMiPa which I'd have said was quite a boring result. but we have taken the scenic route.0 -
Nevada?IanB2 said:It looks like there may be a flurry of new updates from the counting states coming in 4-5pm Uk time. I doubt we are going to hear much significant before then.
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His equivalent in the south gets 80% of his pay and his southern employer gets a bigger support grant as they are based on business rates.RochdalePioneers said:
Levelling up!?0 -
It really is (at least) two countries in one isn’t it? But then I suppose we all are; in the UK’s case literally.noneoftheabove said:
As divided as the rest of the country. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/Time_to_Leave said:
I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?bigjohnowls said:GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden
If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value
How many Military
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
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I think that figure is way too high.Chris said:
The NYT says 200,000+ in this article updated 15 minutes ago:bigjohnowls said:GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden
If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value
How many Military
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/georgia-presidential-election.html0 -
I don’t. Mine just goes to silent black screen with a message on it saying ad break, back shortlyRochdalePioneers said:
I'm on their web feed. When America goes to an ad break we get trailers for International shows. The same trailers. Over and over and over again.IanB2 said:
There aren’t any adverts on their live feed, it just goes quiet if you are watching from abroad. Which is much better than having to listen to all the crap being touted on Fox.RochdalePioneers said:The only problem with watching CNN. Having to watch the same irritating Quest Means Business advert. Who is that utter tool?
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Oh Philip you truely still believe thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Absolutely true. That is what we are doing.CorrectHorseBattery said:When we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the future we want
At least there is only 51 days till Santa comes0 -
I think they may have forgotten to update the headline. Nate Silver reckons there are more like 50,000 but thinks Biden has a real shot at thisChris said:
The NYT says 200,000+ in this article updated 15 minutes ago:bigjohnowls said:GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden
If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value
How many Military
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/georgia-presidential-election.html
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324341633928826880?s=200 -
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact is actually still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!0 -
Doing the right thing is very important but I think it legitimate to adopt the position that anything you do is better than anything the govt does. Even if it's exactly the same policy (which it's not) then you need to find a differentiation.SouthamObserver said:
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.TOPPING said:
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.SouthamObserver said:In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.
Otherwise you can sit in your room all year being right. But out of power.1 -
So I have 200 refreshes to go before anything happens......greatIanB2 said:It looks like there may be a flurry of new updates from the counting states coming in 4-5pm Uk time. I doubt we are going to hear much significant before then.
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Clark County update due 5pm UK timebigjohnowls said:
Nevada?IanB2 said:It looks like there may be a flurry of new updates from the counting states coming in 4-5pm Uk time. I doubt we are going to hear much significant before then.
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No. The US military is top heavy with commissioned and warrant officers due to their focus on technology. Those officers are usually highly educated. The 2ic on my US exchange squadron had a Masters in International Relations from GWU. The 2ic on RN squadron I had just come from had A level Geography grade D.Time_to_Leave said:
I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?bigjohnowls said:GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden
If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value
How many Military
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.0 -
To be honest I was thinking as much about the cash bung they had, and the fact they don’t need to worry about healthcare.Dura_Ace said:
No. The US military is top heavy with commissioned and warrant officers due to their focus on technology. Those officers are usually highly educated. The 2ic on my US exchange squadron had a Masters in International Relations from GWU. The 2ic on RN squadron I had just come from had A level Geography grade D.Time_to_Leave said:
I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?bigjohnowls said:GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden
If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value
How many Military
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
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It is all going to hang on PA. As some of us were saying would likely be the case if it turned out close.Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!0 -
They voted 50-45 for Trump last time, and I doubt his comments on the military have endeared manyDura_Ace said:
No. The US military is top heavy with commissioned and warrant officers due to their focus on technology. Those officers are usually highly educated. The 2ic on my US exchange squadron had a Masters in International Relations from GWU. The 2ic on RN squadron I had just come from had A level Geography grade D.Time_to_Leave said:
I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?bigjohnowls said:GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden
If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value
How many Military
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.0 -
Yes I truly believe that.bigjohnowls said:
Oh Philip you truely still believe thatPhilip_Thompson said:
Absolutely true. That is what we are doing.CorrectHorseBattery said:When we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the future we want
At least there is only 51 days till Santa comes
It is up to us to determine our own future. Success or failure lies in our own hands, in the governments we elect, in the decisions we make. Not relying upon others doing it for us.
As a parent, Santa is the same when you think about it.0 -
Not an expert but would imagine global travel would help as well, fear of Biden as a communist is unlikely to play well with someone who understands he would be a conservative in Western Europe where the capitalist world is amazingly still around.Dura_Ace said:
No. The US military is top heavy with commissioned and warrant officers due to their focus on technology. Those officers are usually highly educated. The 2ic on my US exchange squadron had a Masters in International Relations from GWU. The 2ic on RN squadron I had just come from had A level Geography grade D.Time_to_Leave said:
I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?bigjohnowls said:GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden
If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value
How many Military
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.0 -
If Biden wins GA, but loses all the rest (AZ,NV,PA,NC) it's a tie!numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!0 -
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.0 -
MrEd said:
interested in why ABC saying what it isAnabobazina said:
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.MrEd said:
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.Anabobazina said:
Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.paulyork64 said:
ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.Anabobazina said:
Suggests he knows they have lost the state.numbertwelve said:Trump files lawsuit in Georgia
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html
WRONGMrEd said:
Depends - a few sites have called AZ for Biden so yes then but the NYT hasn't, in that case noFysics_Teacher said:
If he wins Pennsylvania that's enough isn't it?rottenborough said:Penn Dem Senator says no question they have won Penn.
PA is plenty.1 -
When I saw him on CNN I didnt get the feeling he wanted to call it just that he wanted a break before counting Militarykjh said:
Or just completely and utterly fed up.MrEd said:
The impression I get is he is looking to call it, hence why I think it will be declared as a Trump winalex_ said:
By definition, the £25k must exclude votes that haven't yet been verified and tabulated, no? Let alone those not yet received.MrEd said:
Have to admit I don't know. As mentioned, I don't think he would do a TV interview if the Rs didn't think they can say they have held GA - he would be trying to find extra votes in the outlying counties.bigjohnowls said:
Thats important info giving the bettingMrEd said:
Here's the link:bigjohnowls said:
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballotsMrEd said:
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.TimT said:
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25kMrEd said:
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>MrEd said:
From the news report:numbertwelve said:
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.MrEd said:
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.numbertwelve said:
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.MrEd said:
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GApaulyork64 said:
couldnt post link on my phone. this from wsb-tv. think an atlanta media company. quoting 25k votes left.MrEd said:
interested in why ABC saying what it isAnabobazina said:
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.MrEd said:
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.Anabobazina said:
Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.paulyork64 said:
ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.Anabobazina said:
Suggests he knows they have lost the state.numbertwelve said:Trump files lawsuit in Georgia
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/
6:31 a.m.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/
Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time
Thanks
Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?
(You're right, it is important betting info but I can't get onto Betfair
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Presume Trump lawsuit wants to exclude Miltary as they are LOOOSSSSEEEERRRRS
Turns out he is LOOOSSSSEEERRR IN CHIEF!!!1 -
Lockdown II, Lockdown far lighter in my Dorset town. Far more businesses open and far more people around. Suspect observance will be a lot lighter this time. Frankly, business must continue where it can.
Furlough through to March - public finances take another hit. Just not sure how long this can continue.
What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?0 -
That is a big improvement.The_Apocalypse said:
It’s been given the meme treatment:Beibheirli_C said:
https://twitter.com/soapmoine/status/1324286193106898944?s=211 -
A lot less will be enough if they are pro Biden.Sean_F said:
I think that figure is way too high.Chris said:
The NYT says 200,000+ in this article updated 15 minutes ago:bigjohnowls said:GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden
If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value
How many Military
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/georgia-presidential-election.html0 -
I think you are spot on, apart from the last sentence. The huge path that "could" open up suddenly is the US supreme court. They will have the final say on the election. The arguments will be pathetic, but do the judges care or will the court be loyal to the President who packed it?numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.0 -
Yeah, so looking at the Pennsylvania Website (via the medium of other people's tweets due to the geo block) It does indeed look like there is only 488k Absent ballots left but the state totals are
Trump: 3206764
Biden: 3030266
Biden needs to win the remaining mail ballot 68/32 to win. As to don't know ehere those ballots are (due to the reporting lag) I have no idea how plausible that is.
On average it is more than believable, the current mail ballot average is 76/22, but no idea where those ballots are due to how shit American elections are.
The 'average' result is Biden by 75k0 -
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/745563204852547584Philip_Thompson said:
Please show me anyone saying that DURING the EU Referendum?CorrectHorseBattery said:Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market
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I have both and FOX is actually better than CNN in reporting the results and show less bias in their coverage.Philip_Thompson said:CNN: 11am in Fulton County for next results there. That's 4pm our time isn't it?
Its a shame CNN is the only US channel on Sky. It would be fun to mix between CNN and Fox, I'd love to see how Fox are taking this.0 -
This looks correct to me, NYtimes site is fallible and has been a few times over the last few days with updates and remaining numbers, info from on the ground states is much more reliable I'm finding. So it does look very close, if postals and in those Dem areas Biden certainly could sneak home, but a recount is inevitable either way aside from Trump most likely looking at more legal cases here toonot_on_fire said:
I think they may have forgotten to update the headline. Nate Silver reckons there are more like 50,000 but thinks Biden has a real shot at thisChris said:
The NYT says 200,000+ in this article updated 15 minutes ago:bigjohnowls said:GA 2.92 Trump 1.51 Biden
If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value
How many Military
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/georgia-presidential-election.html
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324341633928826880?s=200 -
The SC will stick to the law and the constitution imo and not pander to Trump.noneoftheabove said:
I think you are spot on, apart from the last sentence. The huge path that "could" open up suddenly is the US supreme court. They will have the final say on the election. The arguments will be pathetic, but do the judges care or will the court be loyal to the President who packed it?numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.1 -
HS2 is over (seemingly) hundreds of years....noneoftheabove said:
At its peak furlough was about £14bn a month, guess it will be sub £10bn so maybe £40-50bn over six months. HS2 was a bigger commitment alone.DavidL said:Furlough scheme extended to the end of March next year. Certainly until January this is at the 80% level , to be reviewed then.
The financial commitment made in this statement alone probably exceeds the commitments made in any budget in modern times.0 -
I corrected that an hour ago @Anabobazina Do keep up if you are trying to be funnyAnabobazina said:MrEd said:
interested in why ABC saying what it isAnabobazina said:
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.MrEd said:
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.Anabobazina said:
Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.paulyork64 said:
ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.Anabobazina said:
Suggests he knows they have lost the state.numbertwelve said:Trump files lawsuit in Georgia
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html
WRONGMrEd said:
Depends - a few sites have called AZ for Biden so yes then but the NYT hasn't, in that case noFysics_Teacher said:
If he wins Pennsylvania that's enough isn't it?rottenborough said:Penn Dem Senator says no question they have won Penn.
PA is plenty.2 -
Re: lockdown.
As a teacher I was not expecting a huge effect, but then last night I got an e-mail saying that as an "extremely vulnerable person" I needed to work from home: it would have been very helpful to have had that message a bit earlier so that I could have prepared more for it.0 -
And what proportion of voters have even heard of Marcus Fysh? And how many would think of Michael Fish instead?williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/745563204852547584Philip_Thompson said:
Please show me anyone saying that DURING the EU Referendum?CorrectHorseBattery said:Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market
Boris Johnson explicitly said we were leaving the Single Market during the referendum. How many voters have heard of Boris Johnson?0 -
There should be a PA results batch drop in next 20 mins or so from Philly, dunno if its a big drop and containing those potential missing ballots or its just the start of the day and reporting is bit by bitAlistair said:Yeah, so looking at the Pennsylvania Website (via the medium of other people's tweets due to the geo block) It does indeed look like there is only 488k Absent ballots left but the state totals are
Trump: 3206764
Biden: 3030266
Biden needs to win the remaining mail ballot 68/32 to win. As to don't know ehere those ballots are (due to the reporting lag) I have no idea how plausible that is.
On average it is more than believable, the current mail ballot average is 76/22, but no idea where those ballots are due to how shit American elections are.
The 'average' result is Biden by 75k0 -
Its a bigger commitment, not much point in building 12 miles of it but not the rest.Mortimer said:
HS2 is over (seemingly) hundreds of years....noneoftheabove said:
At its peak furlough was about £14bn a month, guess it will be sub £10bn so maybe £40-50bn over six months. HS2 was a bigger commitment alone.DavidL said:Furlough scheme extended to the end of March next year. Certainly until January this is at the 80% level , to be reviewed then.
The financial commitment made in this statement alone probably exceeds the commitments made in any budget in modern times.0 -
Is Fox on Sky? I couldn't find them, what channel number?felix said:
I have both and FOX is actually better than CNN in reporting the results and show less bias in their coverage.Philip_Thompson said:CNN: 11am in Fulton County for next results there. That's 4pm our time isn't it?
Its a shame CNN is the only US channel on Sky. It would be fun to mix between CNN and Fox, I'd love to see how Fox are taking this.0 -
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
0 -
Not convinced given Kavanaughs ruling last month.Benpointer said:
The SC will stick to the law and the constitution imo and not pander to Trump.noneoftheabove said:
I think you are spot on, apart from the last sentence. The huge path that "could" open up suddenly is the US supreme court. They will have the final say on the election. The arguments will be pathetic, but do the judges care or will the court be loyal to the President who packed it?numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.0 -
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.0 -
I disagree. If there’s anything coming out of the states it’s that the ballots are being counted properly and in a careful manner ( incredibly slowly, I’ll grant you). The Supreme Court is politically appointed but at its heart it is not a party political machine. Where it does have leanings it is more along moralistic lines in accordance with the interpretation of the constitution and the bill of rights. I don’t think the Democrats have anything to fear from the Supreme Court unless some drastic news comes out that throws the process into doubt.noneoftheabove said:
I think you are spot on, apart from the last sentence. The huge path that "could" open up suddenly is the US supreme court. They will have the final say on the election. The arguments will be pathetic, but do the judges care or will the court be loyal to the President who packed it?numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Now ACB is a bit of a wildcard because she was a blatantly political appointee. But she is at heart and by career a jurist (just a very conservative one) so there’s nothing to suggest that she would automatically favour the GOP in an election unless there is some residual loyalty there due to the process. Similarly Gorsuch and Kavanaugh have both ruled against the Trump WH before, and both are Trump appointees. Roberts is certainly independent. Clarence Thomas is on a bit of a different planet so who knows there.1 -
Yep - I agree with that. Being good at the politics bit is vital. Starmer is learning, I think; Dodds has a long way to go.TOPPING said:
Doing the right thing is very important but I think it legitimate to adopt the position that anything you do is better than anything the govt does. Even if it's exactly the same policy (which it's not) then you need to find a differentiation.SouthamObserver said:
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.TOPPING said:
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.SouthamObserver said:In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.
Otherwise you can sit in your room all year being right. But out of power.
0 -
Breaking news on CNN about precise numbers left to count in PA
Straight after advert break0 -
I assume you're getting a new key race alert after that?bigjohnowls said:Breaking news on CNN about precise numbers left to count in PA
Straight after advert break1 -
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.0 -
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point0 -
GA?MrEd said:
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.0 -
Nothing stoping them taking a paid office of the crown. The seat would just be vacant for a whileisam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
0 -
Sorry, I was offline for a while and hadn't refreshed the thread.MrEd said:
I corrected that an hour ago @Anabobazina Do keep up if you are trying to be funnyAnabobazina said:MrEd said:
interested in why ABC saying what it isAnabobazina said:
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.MrEd said:
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.Anabobazina said:
Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.paulyork64 said:
ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.Anabobazina said:
Suggests he knows they have lost the state.numbertwelve said:Trump files lawsuit in Georgia
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html
WRONGMrEd said:
Depends - a few sites have called AZ for Biden so yes then but the NYT hasn't, in that case noFysics_Teacher said:
If he wins Pennsylvania that's enough isn't it?rottenborough said:Penn Dem Senator says no question they have won Penn.
PA is plenty.
0 -
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point0 -
Only ‘right’ in the sense that it’s what the two major parties agree on. Like when Cameron and Miliband’s parties thought it best we Remain in the EU. The public didn’t unanimously agree with that eitherSouthamObserver said:
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.TOPPING said:
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.SouthamObserver said:In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.1 -
-
I hope you are right, and I do agree it is much more likely that the court rejects Trumps nonsense, but I also think the SC is Trumps best chance. Id say the current 15% for Trump is about right, but made up of perhaps 5% of winning it fairly and 10% to win it unfairly in the courts.numbertwelve said:
I disagree. If there’s anything coming out of the states it’s that the ballots are being counted properly and in a careful manner ( incredibly slowly, I’ll grant you). The Supreme Court is politically appointed but at its heart it is not a party political machine. Where it does have leanings it is more along moralistic lines in accordance with the interpretation of the constitution and the bill of rights. I don’t think the Democrats have anything to fear from the Supreme Court unless some drastic news comes out that throws the process into doubt.noneoftheabove said:
I think you are spot on, apart from the last sentence. The huge path that "could" open up suddenly is the US supreme court. They will have the final say on the election. The arguments will be pathetic, but do the judges care or will the court be loyal to the President who packed it?numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Now ACB is a bit of a wildcard because she was a blatantly political appointee. But she is at heart and by career a jurist (just a very conservative one) so there’s nothing to suggest that she would automatically favour the GOP in an election unless there is some residual loyalty there due to the process. Similarly Gorsuch and Kavanaugh have both ruled against the Trump WH before, and both are Trump appointees. Roberts is certainly independent. Clarence Thomas is on a bit of a different planet so who knows there.0 -
I expect the same will be true in Philly which is why PA is a done deal.Alistair said:0 -
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
0 -
No worriesAnabobazina said:
Sorry, I was offline for a while and hadn't refreshed the thread.MrEd said:
I corrected that an hour ago @Anabobazina Do keep up if you are trying to be funnyAnabobazina said:MrEd said:
interested in why ABC saying what it isAnabobazina said:
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.MrEd said:
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.Anabobazina said:
Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.paulyork64 said:
ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.Anabobazina said:
Suggests he knows they have lost the state.numbertwelve said:Trump files lawsuit in Georgia
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html
WRONGMrEd said:
Depends - a few sites have called AZ for Biden so yes then but the NYT hasn't, in that case noFysics_Teacher said:
If he wins Pennsylvania that's enough isn't it?rottenborough said:Penn Dem Senator says no question they have won Penn.
PA is plenty.1 -
PA - Philly 140k left Mail in and on the daybigjohnowls said:Breaking news on CNN about precise numbers left to count in PA
Straight after advert break
- Bucks County 28k all mail in (77% Biden Mail in so far)0 -
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.0 -
The conspiraloons and AWT will long for a Trumpalike, but the bible thumpers have proven willing to suck the withered cock of anybody who promises them a judge.Dura_Ace said:
How the fuck would they stop him? He's proven himself a relentless and stunningly effective campaigner that can energise the bible thumpers, conspiraloons and other assorted white trash like nobody else.Stocky said:
Oh that`s grimly interesting. I never thought of that. Surely GOP won`t allow Trump to run again??Dura_Ace said:
If they do manage to get him out of the WH he will start campaigning for 2024 the next day. He isn't going anywhere.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do we think Trump will set him up as the real President in exile in another country like an Avignon Pope/Antipope?theenglishborn said:If Biden does win its going to be feel very odd having a President waiting for data before saying anything isn't it?
0 -
Breaking news on CNN about Georgia.bigjohnowls said:Breaking news on CNN about precise numbers left to count in PA
Straight after advert break
Straight after advert break.0 -
I think they will call it for Trump. Whether it is or not is a different matter. I expect that one to be FL 2000 Redux if it comes down to being the crucial statebigjohnowls said:
GA?MrEd said:
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.0 -
GA details of whats left after the break CNN0
-
Might not leave him with a majority of Tory MPs though....could lead to 1922 letters and giving the membership two grown ups to choose from.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point0 -
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point0 -
I inferred from CNN that there are more mail-in ballots in Philly to count as first thought. But dunno.bigjohnowls said:
PA - Philly 140k left Mail in and on the daybigjohnowls said:Breaking news on CNN about precise numbers left to count in PA
Straight after advert break
- Bucks County 28k all mail in (77% Biden Mail in so far)
I just want this killed off now.0 -
Oooh!MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
What prices are you offering? At least one defector/ no defectors to the Reform party (before the next GE)0 -
Fysh is an areeholePhilip_Thompson said:
And what proportion of voters have even heard of Marcus Fysh? And how many would think of Michael Fish instead?williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/745563204852547584Philip_Thompson said:
Please show me anyone saying that DURING the EU Referendum?CorrectHorseBattery said:Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market
Boris Johnson explicitly said we were leaving the Single Market during the referendum. How many voters have heard of Boris Johnson?0 -
State authorities don't "call" elections. They count the ballots and report and then certify the results.MrEd said:
I think they will call it for Trump. Whether it is or not is a different matter. I expect that one to be FL 2000 Redux if it comes down to being the crucial statebigjohnowls said:
GA?MrEd said:
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.1 -
I doubt it.Stark_Dawning said:
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.2 -
If they got rolled over the 2022, that would be a pretty packed year wouldn’t it? Must be a chance though - else a need to go fully postal vote?Mortimer said:Lockdown II, Lockdown far lighter in my Dorset town. Far more businesses open and far more people around. Suspect observance will be a lot lighter this time. Frankly, business must continue where it can.
Furlough through to March - public finances take another hit. Just not sure how long this can continue.
What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
0 -
50,000 votes left in GA - CNN.0
-
50,000 left to count in GA – Secretary of State's office.
Gonna be very close indeed.
Biden needs roughly 70% of them.0 -
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.0 -
Final votes from Atlanta expected at 11am. That's 4pm our time isn't it?0
-
In regards NV, your comment about the drop offs is true, and originally I had concerns as you correctly point out the Rs have done well with those so far, not hugely, but well. However it was confirmed that there are still a lot of Clark postal votes from the last day or two before voting day still to be counted. Those have skewed very much for Dems. If Trump had some fairly big rural numbers still to be counted it might be close, but they are pretty much all counted. Though the gap is currently small at 7000 at the end I expect it to get a fair big bigger.bigjohnowls said:
GA?MrEd said:
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
One other thing, IF they count the drop off box votes its quite possible that lead could shrink if they declare in batches, and then the postals will boost Bidens lead. So if they do do it that way I expect some backing Biden to panic for a short time at least 0 -
BETTING POST
50K LEFT IN GEORGIA
SOS Office live on CNN
Pile on Biden? 1.49
DYOR1 -
Perhaps later today we can enjoy the first Trump press conference after Biden has been announced as the winner.
I wonder what he will say...?0 -
So you did get it from a right wing nut job then.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
That never happened. You were here when the 130k happened and commented about it at the time - and yes Trump got 10k at the time.5 -
Thanks for the clarification. Doesn't really matter in practice though does it?alex_ said:
State authorities don't "call" elections. They count the ballots and report and then certify the results.MrEd said:
I think they will call it for Trump. Whether it is or not is a different matter. I expect that one to be FL 2000 Redux if it comes down to being the crucial statebigjohnowls said:
GA?MrEd said:
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.0 -
Excluding ballots yet to arrive, presumably.bigjohnowls said:BETTING POST 50K LEFT IN GEORGIA
SOS Office1 -
So this was in addition to the 140K dump?MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.0 -
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.5 -
Well yes. Point being they can't just reach a point and stop counting. Or declare something different to the actual results.MrEd said:
Thanks for the clarification. Doesn't really matter in practice though does it?alex_ said:
State authorities don't "call" elections. They count the ballots and report and then certify the results.MrEd said:
I think they will call it for Trump. Whether it is or not is a different matter. I expect that one to be FL 2000 Redux if it comes down to being the crucial statebigjohnowls said:
GA?MrEd said:
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.0 -
Agreed. Just avoid any uncertainty and make the whole thing postal only now. If things improve, they can have polling places where postal ballots can be dropped off in person.LostPassword said:
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.0 -
It's not over yet.RochdalePioneers said:Perhaps later today we can enjoy the first Trump press conference after Biden has been announced as the winner.
I wonder what he will say...?0 -
This is a great shame, it is a fraud on the country, that is a great shame but we are winning and we are claiming we have won in Pennsylvania and Georgia and Michigan and we are going to the courts but it is a great shame and a great fraud on the country that we will go to the courts because we are winning and it is a great shame and a fraud and we are winning and we will win the votes and all votes we are winning and it is a great shame the fraud . . .RochdalePioneers said:Perhaps later today we can enjoy the first Trump press conference after Biden has been announced as the winner.
I wonder what he will say...?0 -
NV they were counting all day yesterday but not reporting expect a lot in first batch this morning NV timeMal557 said:
In regards NV, your comment about the drop offs is true, and originally I had concerns as you correctly point out the Rs have done well with those so far, not hugely, but well. However it was confirmed that there are still a lot of Clark postal votes from the last day or two before voting day still to be counted. Those have skewed very much for Dems. If Trump had some fairly big rural numbers still to be counted it might be close, but they are pretty much all counted. Though the gap is currently small at 7000 at the end I expect it to get a fair big bigger.bigjohnowls said:
GA?MrEd said:
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
One other thing, IF they count the drop off box votes its quite possible that lead could shrink if they declare in batches, and then the postals will boost Bidens lead. So if they do do it that way I expect some backing Biden to panic for a short time at least0 -
Which is why I did say irony when I was typing it....Philip_Thompson said:
So you did get it from a right wing nut job then.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
That never happened. You were here when the 130k happened and commented about it at the time - and yes Trump got 10k at the time.
Look, I am only quoting what I have heard was said by the Trump campaign. What I said on the night was in reaction to the info then. The two are separate things.
Anyway, why don't you go back to predicting us a 381.5 EC Biden win 0 -
You can literally see the bump in the Trump Vote line at the same time.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.3 -
I am in Spain - we have a package that includes Sky and lots pf other stuff. I don't know if the numbers would match.Philip_Thompson said:
Is Fox on Sky? I couldn't find them, what channel number?felix said:
I have both and FOX is actually better than CNN in reporting the results and show less bias in their coverage.Philip_Thompson said:CNN: 11am in Fulton County for next results there. That's 4pm our time isn't it?
Its a shame CNN is the only US channel on Sky. It would be fun to mix between CNN and Fox, I'd love to see how Fox are taking this.1 -
The only reason for elections not going ahead would be objections about parties being unable to campaign. But i don't see why an election HAS to require a traditional election campaign. All you need for an election is an ability for all eligible voters to cast their vote. Campaign or no campaign. If that is perceived to advantage one side or another, tough. It's the same for everyone.LostPassword said:
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.0
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